国外热议：为什么中国和日本可以相对和平共处，而伊朗和沙特却不能？

Walter Finch
Originally Answered: Why can China and Japan coexist (relatively) peacefully while Iran and Saudi Arabia cannot?

最初回答：为什么中国和日本能够（相对）和平共处，而伊朗和沙特阿拉伯却不能？

Quite simply, because Japan and China trade over $400 billion worth of goods and services each year. They may differ over the sovereignty of various uninhabited islets, they may bear the scars and resentment of a violent and tragic history, and they may bump shoulders as the balance of power between the two shifts, but they both have the same fundamental interest, which is trade and prosperity.

原因很简单，因为日本和中国每年的商品和服务贸易额超过4000亿美元。他们可能在多个无人小岛的主权问题上存在分歧，可能背负着暴力悲剧历史留下的伤痕与怨恨，也可能随着两国实力平衡的变化而发生摩擦，但他们都拥有相同的根本利益，那就是贸易与繁荣。

They both have export-led economies which require huge quantities of inputs from abroad, so broadly speaking their economic interests are aligned. And finally, the Asia-Pacfic is a highly complex and febrile region inhabited by a variety of powers greater and lesser and any conflict between China and Japan would likely conflagrate.

两国均实行出口导向型经济，需从海外进口大量原材料，因此从广义上讲双方经济利益具有一致性。此外，亚太地区局势高度复杂敏感，区域内大国小国林立，中日若发生冲突极可能引发燎原之势。

Ultimately, apart from the right to be owner-occupiers of some islands, there nothing to be gained from war between the two. One is not going to conquer and occupy the other. They gain much more by trading with each other.

最终，除了获得一些岛屿的所有权和居住权外，两国之间爆发战争不会获得任何好处。一方不可能征服并占领另一方。通过相互贸易，他们获得的利益要大得多。



Iran and Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, do not have as tightly-bound economies. Both are oil exporters and OPEC members and would benefit from high oil prices. However, the two countries have no commercial relations and trade volume officially stands at zero. This means that war betweeen the two would not necessarily be lose-lose, as it would between Japan and China.

另一方面，伊朗和沙特阿拉伯的经济联系并不紧密。两国都是石油出口国和欧佩克（OPEC）成员，都将受益于高油价。然而，两国没有商业关系，官方贸易额为零。这意味着两国之间的战争不一定是双输局面，不像中日之间那样必然是双输。

Furthermore, as the two paragons of their respective Islamic sects (Shia and Sunni), they are engaged in an intra-religious ideological conflict, in which both seek to muscle the other out and increase influence in the region in a zero-sum game.

此外，作为各自伊斯兰教派（什叶派和逊尼派）的典范，两国卷入了一场宗教内部的意识形态冲突，在这场零和游戏中，双方都试图排挤对方，增加自己在该地区的影响力。

They are unable to attack each other directly, and so they employ proxy forces in regional battle grounds such as Syria and Yemen to carve out and increase their zones of influence.

他们无法直接攻击对方，因此便在叙利亚和也门等地区战场上利用代理人武装，以开拓和扩大自己的势力范围。

In recent years, Iran has been the expansionary power, expanding in to fill the vacuum left by the removal Sunni leaders in Iraq and Yemen, while Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies have attempted to topple the Alawite/Shia Assad government and empower the local Sunni communities.

近年来，伊朗一直是扩张势力，乘虚而入，填补了伊拉克和也门逊尼派领导人被推翻后留下的权力真空；而沙特阿拉伯及其海湾盟友则试图推翻阿拉维派/什叶派的阿萨德政府，并扶持当地的逊尼派势力。

Why can’t they just settle their differences and get along? Partly for religious-ideological reasons, and partly because all the instability in the Middle East continually presents opportunities to expand their spheres of interest.

为什么他们不能解决分歧、和平相处呢？部分原因是宗教意识形态的差异，部分原因是中东地区持续的不稳定不断为他们提供了扩大自身利益范围的机会。

Unfortunately, in an unstable or volatile international system, it is rational to continually be looking to maximise one’s power and influence as a pursuit of survival.

不幸的是，在一个不稳定或动荡的国际体系中，不断寻求最大化自身权力和影响力以谋求生存，是理性的选择。

Amoy Young
For Saudi and Iran, aside from their sectarian feud of Sunni vs. Shia, and geopolitical rivalry, both of them are oil based economies. That means they compete for the same market share especially in Asia, both ranking as the biggest oil suppliers for China, India et al. They hardly share any convergent interest but would rather be at each other's throat with proxy wars in Yemen and Syria.

对沙特和伊朗来说，除了逊尼派与什叶派的宗派宿怨和地缘政治竞争外，两国都是石油经济。这意味着他们争夺的是相同的市场份额，尤其是在亚洲，两国都是中国、印度等国的最大石油供应国。他们几乎没有共同的利益，反而更愿意在也门和叙利亚通过代理人战争互相争斗。

In contrast China and Japan are mutually top trading partners for each other, and Chinese travellers are swarming Japan in millions with $$$ spendings. Despite historical bitterness and territorial spats, Chinese (secretly) admire Japanese for a few of their virtues. Both being also culturally close and pragmatic, coupled with economic engagement, two countries have exercised self-restraint to stop tensions from escalating.

相比之下，中国和日本互为最大的贸易伙伴，中国游客正以数百万计的规模涌入日本，消费金额巨大。尽管存在历史伤痛和领土争端，中国人（私下里）欣赏日本人的某些优点。两国文化上也相近且务实，加上经济上的密切联系，双方都采取了自我克制，以防止紧张局势升级。

Gurudutt Mallapur
The basic premise of the question is incorrect, that China and Japan are coexisting (and trading) in peace while KSA and Iran are not.

这个问题的基本前提是错误的，即认为中国和日本在和平共处（并进行贸易），而沙特阿拉伯（KSA）和伊朗则不是。

Actually, the trading part is correct but the peaceful part isn't.

实际上，贸易部分是对的，但和平部分则不然。

North Korea firing missiles into Japanese sea doesn't seem very peaceful to me. The main supporter of NK is China/Russia. Wouldn't surprise me if the missiles were “imported at short notice” from friendly neighbors.

在我看来，朝鲜向日本海发射导弹似乎并不怎么和平。朝鲜的主要支持者是中国/俄罗斯。如果这些导弹是“紧急从友好邻邦进口的”，我也不会感到惊讶。

Japan, SK and US respond militarily by installing thaad system and other “peacekeeping” maneouvers.

日本、韩国和美国则以部署萨德（THAAD）系统和其他“维和”军事行动作为回应。

Not exactly peaceful is it, if threats of WW3 are being bandied about as nonchalantly as the news of next release of “Fast and Furious part N”(maybe it should be “Dumb and Dumber part N”)

这实在算不上和平，尤其当第三次世界大战的威胁像谈论下一部《速度与激情第N部》（也许该叫《蠢蛋进化论第N部》）的新闻那样被随意散播时。

So it's just direct trade and indirect aggression via proxies.

所以这只是直接的贸易和通过代理人的间接侵略。

This is exactly what's going on between the 2 Middle East countries in question (minus the trade part of course).

这正是所提到的两个中东国家之间正在发生的事情（当然，减去贸易部分）。

Yemen, Syria (even Qatar to an extent) being the proxy battle grounds if one insists on being specific. KSA, US and allies on one side and Iran, Russia, Syria, Turkey on another (?China at least in terms of trade with Iran?).

如果非要具体说明的话，也门、叙利亚（甚至卡塔尔在某种程度上）就是代理人战场。一方是沙特阿拉伯、美国及其盟友，另一方是伊朗、俄罗斯、叙利亚、土耳其（？中国至少在与伊朗的贸易上是这样？）。

This is geopolitics. Something that's quite evident if one scans the news once in a while and digs a bit (on Quora for example) for underlying power struggles rather than the surface rhetoric.

这就是地缘政治。如果你偶尔浏览新闻，并深挖一点（比如在Quora上）表面言论之下的权力斗争，这是相当明显的。

Alex Zhang
This is a bit of a complicated question, and I think the core of it might come down on how you describe “peaceful coexistence”.

这是一个有点复杂的问题，我认为其核心可能取决于你如何定义“和平共处”。

Saudi Arabia and Iran may not have any active relations at present, but neither are they officially at war, nor have their nations ever directly attacked one another in recent history. They may both support groups beyond their borders to further their conflicting interests, and are indeed on opposite sides of several regional conflicts, but an all-out war between the two is fairly unlikely at this point.

沙特阿拉伯和伊朗目前可能没有积极的往来，但他们既没有正式宣战，在近代历史上也从未直接攻击过对方。他们可能在境外支持某些团体以推进其相互冲突的利益，并且在几场地区冲突中确实处于对立面，但目前两国之间爆发全面战争的可能性相当小。

China and Japan are major trade partners and neighbors, although their political ties might not be described as very friendly. After all, there are still certain unresolved disputes between their governments, and Japan still hosts American military bases on its territory; in additional, some Chinese people may hold certain feelings of resentment due to historical reasons. Yet again, an all-out war is just as unlikely between the two of them for the foreseeable future.

中国和日本是主要的贸易伙伴和邻国，尽管他们的政治关系可能称不上非常友好。毕竟，两国政府之间仍存在某些未解决的争端，日本领土上仍有美国军事基地；此外，一些中国人可能因历史原因怀有怨恨。然而同样地，在可预见的未来，两国之间爆发全面战争的可能性也极小。

It might also be because Saudi Arabia and Iran are more actively competing for dominance of their neighborhood than China and Japan are. That being said, I do believe East Asia is simply more stable and less volatile at the moment than the Middle East currently is, with even North Korea cooling down its rhetoric for a long while.

也可能是因为沙特阿拉伯和伊朗在争夺其周边地区主导权方面比中日两国更为积极。话虽如此，我确实认为东亚目前总体上比中东更稳定、更少动荡，甚至连朝鲜的激烈言辞也降温了相当长一段时间。

Perhaps this might be because many Chinese and Japanese people lean towards atheism or agnosticism, thereby lacking the impetus for at least religious conflict.

也许这可能是因为许多中国人和日本人倾向于无神论或不可知论，因此至少缺乏宗教冲突的动力。

Conversely, most people in the Middle East have societies and governments which strongly embrace organized religion of one kind or another, resulting in (as one major example) the ongoing Sunni-Shi’ite divide between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which has also in turn fractured Iraq, Syria and Yemen.

相反，在中东的大多数国家，其社会和政府都强烈信奉某种有组织的宗教，导致了（一个主要例子）沙特阿拉伯和伊朗之间持续的逊尼派-什叶派分裂，这种分裂反过来又使伊拉克、叙利亚和也门陷入分裂。

Ridwan Nurhayat
Originally Answered: Why can China and Japan coexist (relatively) peacefully while Iran and Saudi Arabia cannot?

最初回答：为什么中国和日本能够（相对）和平共处，而伊朗和沙特阿拉伯却不能？

Relationship between Iran and Saudi is relatively more peaceful than between:

伊朗和沙特之间的关系，相对而言比以下国家间的关系更和平：

South Korea and North Korea

韩国和朝鲜

India and Pakistan

印度和巴基斯坦

Russia and Ukraine

俄罗斯和乌克兰

etc.

等等。

At least Saudi and Iran have never been at war against each other. No matter how harsh the rhetoric between leaders of both countries.

至少沙特和伊朗从未彼此交战过。无论两国领导人的言辞多么激烈。

Sure, both countries are less peaceful than China or Japan. But comparing Saudi - Iran with China - Japan wouldn’t be meaningful.

诚然，这两个国家都不如中国或日本和平。但将沙特-伊朗与中国-日本进行比较是没有意义的。

Why don’t you compare it with relationship of Jordan - Israel or Qatar - Iran, for example.

你为什么不将其与约旦-以色列或卡塔尔-伊朗的关系进行比较呢？