By Murad Sadygzade, President of the Middle East Studies Center, Visiting Lecturer, HSE University (Moscow).

作者：穆拉德·萨迪格扎德，中东研究中心主席，莫斯科高等经济大学客座讲师

Global events increasingly reflect the growing confrontation between the Western bloc, led by the United States and its allies, and the countries of the so-called “World Majority,” coalescing around BRICS.

全球局势日益反映出以美国及其盟友为首的西方集团与围绕金砖国家形成的所谓"世界大多数"国家之间的对抗升级。

This geopolitical tension is particularly evident against the backdrop of escalating conflicts in the Middle East, where the actions of the US and Israel are seen as manifestations of Western hegemony, while BRICS nations and their partners are increasingly positioning themselves as defenders of multipolarity, sovereignty, and a just international order.

这种地缘政治紧张在中东冲突加剧的背景下尤为明显。美国和以色列的行动被视为西方霸权的体现，而金砖国家及其伙伴则日益将自己定位为多极化、主权和公正国际秩序的捍卫者。

On July 7, US President Donald Trump hosted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House. The two leaders discussed two major issues: the upcoming negotiations with Iran and the controversial initiative to relocate Palestinians from Gaza. These topics underscored Washington and West Jerusalem’s efforts to reshape the Middle East’s security architecture – frxd under the banner of offering a “better future,” yet unfolding amid growing accusations of violations of international law.

7 月 7 日，美国总统特朗普在白宫会晤以色列总理内塔尼亚胡。两位领导人讨论了两个主要议题：即将与伊朗进行的谈判，以及颇具争议的加沙地带巴勒斯坦人迁移计划。这些话题凸显了华盛顿和西耶路撒冷重塑中东安全架构的努力——虽然打着"创造更美好未来"的旗号，却因日益增多的违反国际法指控而备受争议。

During a working dinner, Netanyahu stated that Israel and the US had been consulting with several countries allegedly willing to accept Palestinians wishing to leave Gaza. He emphasized that the proposed relocation would be “voluntary,” offering a better future to those who seek it. According to him, agreements with a number of countries were already nearing completion.

在一次工作晚宴上，内塔尼亚胡表示以色列和美国已与多个据称愿意接收希望离开加沙的巴勒斯坦人的国家进行磋商。他强调这项安置计划将是"自愿的"，为寻求新生活的人提供更美好的未来。据他透露，与若干国家达成的协议已接近完成。

Initially, Trump refrained from making a clear statement on the matter, but later remarked that “neighboring countries have been extremely cooperative,” expressing confidence that “something good will happen.” This ambiguity may reflect either an attempt to soften the political sensitivity of the issue or a reluctance to prematurely reveal the details of a plan that has drawn considerable criticism.

特朗普最初未就此明确表态，但随后评论称"周边国家表现出高度配合"，并相信"会有积极进展"。这种模糊表态既可能是为了淡化该议题的政治敏感性，也可能源于不愿过早披露这个已招致大量批评的计划细节。

Previously, Trump had proposed transforming Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East” and relocating its population – an idea harshly rejected both by the residents of the enclave and by international human rights organizations, which characterized it as a form of ethnic cleansing. Behind the scenes of the dinner, indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas were ongoing, focused on securing a ceasefire and a hostage exchange.

此前，特朗普曾提议将加沙改造为"中东的里维埃拉"并迁移当地居民——这一构想遭到该飞地居民和国际人权组织的强烈反对，被定性为某种形式的种族清洗。晚宴背后，以色列与哈马斯正进行间接谈判，核心议题是促成停火与人质交换。

The meeting marked the third in-person encounter between Trump and Netanyahu since the Republican leader’s return to the White House in January. Just two weeks earlier, the US had carried out strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in support of Israeli military action. Days later, Trump helped broker a short-term ceasefire in the 12-day war between Israel and Iran – an achievement likely intended to bolster his own diplomatic credentials.

此次会晤是特朗普自 1 月重返白宫以来与内塔尼亚胡的第三次面对面接触。就在两周前，美国为支持以色列军事行动对伊朗核设施实施了打击。数日后，特朗普斡旋促成了以色列与伊朗 12 天战争的短期停火——这一外交成果很可能是为其政治履历增色之举。

During the meeting, Trump announced that his administration had scheduled formal talks with Iran. He said that Tehran had shown a willingness to negotiate following substantial military and economic pressure. US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff confirmed that the meeting was expected to take place “within the next week.”

会谈期间，特朗普宣布其政府已安排与伊朗进行正式谈判。他表示德黑兰在承受巨大军事和经济压力后展现出谈判意愿。美国中东问题特使史蒂夫·维特科夫证实会谈预计"将在下周内"举行。

Trump also indicated he was open to lifting sanctions on Iran under the right circumstances. Meanwhile, Iran’s newly elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian, expressed hope that tensions with the United States could be resolved through diplomacy. These statements suggested a potential, albeit limited, window for resetting US-Iranian relations, though both sides appeared driven primarily by tactical considerations.

特朗普同时表示在适当条件下愿意解除对伊朗的制裁。与此同时，伊朗新当选总统马苏德·佩泽什基安表达了通过外交途径缓解美伊紧张关系的期望。这些表态为两国关系重置提供了有限的可能性窗口，尽管双方动机显然主要出于战术考量。

The political significance of the Trump-Netanyahu meeting was further underscored by protests outside the White House. Hundreds of demonstrators, waving Palestinian flags, demanded an end to US military support for Israel and called for Netanyahu’s arrest in light of the International Criminal Court’s warrant against him for alleged war crimes in Gaza.

白宫外爆发的抗议活动进一步凸显了特朗普与内塔尼亚胡会晤的政治敏感性。数百名挥舞巴勒斯坦国旗的示威者要求美国停止对以色列的军事支持，并鉴于国际刑事法院以内塔尼亚胡涉嫌在加沙犯下战争罪为由对其发出逮捕令，呼吁将其逮捕归案。

Earlier that day, Netanyahu had met with Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The following day, he held talks with congressional leaders. During his meeting with Trump, the Israeli prime minister also handed the president a letter nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize – a symbolic gesture aimed at reinforcing the strategic bond between the two leaders and appealing to their respective domestic audiences.

当天早些时候，内塔尼亚胡会见了威特科夫和国务卿马可·卢比奥。次日，他与国会领导人举行了会谈。在与特朗普会晤期间，这位以色列总理还向总统递交了一封提名其角逐诺贝尔和平奖的信函——这一象征性举动旨在强化两位领导人之间的战略纽带，并向各自国内民众传递信号。

The Israeli side expressed hope that the outcome of the conflict with Iran could help advance the normalization of relations with several Arab states, including Lebanon, Syria, and Saudi Arabia. In this sense, the actions of Israel and the US in the region appear to be aimed not only at immediate security concerns but also at a long-term strategic reshaping of the Middle Eastern landscape.

以色列方面表示，希望与伊朗冲突的结果能推动与黎巴嫩、叙利亚及沙特阿拉伯等数个阿拉伯国家的关系正常化。从这个意义上说，以色列和美国在该地区的行动似乎不仅着眼于眼前的安全关切，更致力于对中东格局进行长远的战略重塑。

However, the situation is far from straightforward. It seems that Netanyahu is trying to create the appearance of active engagement in peace processes, while in reality showing little interest in achieving meaningful change. Israeli media have reported that Netanyahu is under “intense pressure” from Trump, who is pushing for a Gaza ceasefire deal. Nevertheless, no substantial progress has yet been made.

然而局势远非表面这般简单。内塔尼亚胡似乎试图营造积极参与和平进程的表象，实则对实现实质性变革兴趣寥寥。以色列媒体报道称，内塔尼亚胡正承受特朗普施加的"巨大压力"，后者正力推加沙停火协议。但截至目前，谈判仍未取得重大突破。

Media sources indicate that Witkoff’s planned trip to Doha has been postponed. Earlier that evening, Witkoff had expressed optimism, claiming that only one issue remained unresolved: where the Israeli army would redeploy. This question is crucial, as Israel insists on retaining control over the city of Rafah in southern Gaza and securing the release of hostages. Current estimates suggest that around 50 hostages remain in Gaza, with approximately 20 believed to be alive.

据媒体消息，威特科夫原定前往多哈的行程已被推迟。当晚早些时候，这位特使还曾乐观表示仅剩一个悬而未决的问题：以军将重新部署至何处。这个议题至关重要，因为以色列坚持要保留对加沙南部拉法市的控制权，并确保人质获释。目前估计仍有约 50 名人质滞留在加沙，其中约 20 人据信尚在人世。

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has announced plans to establish a tent city in Rafah to relocate up to 600,000 Palestinians. Israel would control entry into the camp, prevent residents from leaving, and subsequently begin the process of transferring them out of Gaza altogether. This is all part of what has been referred to as the “Trump Plan” for the “depopulation” of the enclave and the establishment of full Israeli control.

以色列国防部长卡茨宣布计划在拉法建立帐篷城，用于转移多达 60 万巴勒斯坦人。以色列将控制营地的进出，阻止居民离开，随后开始将他们完全转移出加沙地带的进程。这一切都是所谓"特朗普计划"的一部分，旨在实现该飞地的"人口清空"并建立以色列的全面控制。

According to Katz’s broader plan, the remainder of Gaza’s 2.1 million residents could eventually be expelled as well. Critics argue that this approach would amount to the forced displacement of Palestinians to third countries. Annelle Sheline, a fellow with the Quincy Institute’s Middle East program, described the proposed camps as “concentration camps” and expressed doubt that the Trump administration would intervene to stop the implementation of Israeli plans.

根据卡茨更广泛的计划，加沙地带剩余的 210 万居民最终也可能被驱逐。批评者认为这种做法等同于将巴勒斯坦人强制迁移到第三国。昆西研究所中东项目研究员安内尔·谢琳将这些拟建的营地称为"集中营"，并对特朗普政府会出手阻止以色列计划的实施表示怀疑。

“Although Washington wields considerable influence over the details of what’s happening, Trump effectively sidestepped the question of forced displacement by deferring responsibility to Netanyahu,” Sheline told Al Jazeera.

"尽管华盛顿对当前事态的细节拥有相当大的影响力，但特朗普通过将责任推给内塔尼亚胡，实际上回避了强制迁移的问题，"谢琳对半岛电视台表示。

She further stated that Trump is surrounded by advisors who are unlikely to challenge him on moral or legal grounds. “What’s happening isn’t just a potential crime against humanity – it’s an effort to legitimize GENOCIDE and the subsequent deportation of survivors. And it implicates the United States directly,” the expert emphasized.

她进一步表示，特朗普身边的顾问不太可能在道德或法律层面提出异议。"正在发生的不仅是一桩潜在的反人类罪行——更是在为种族灭绝及其后续对幸存者的驱逐行为正名。这直接牵涉到美国，"专家强调道。

Trump himself has continued to strongly support Netanyahu, including by interfering in Israel’s internal politics – he has openly criticized the prosecutors leading the corruption investigation against the Israeli prime minister, who faces charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust. Netanyahu has denied all allegations.

特朗普本人持续强力支持内塔尼亚胡，甚至干预以色列内政——他公开批评负责调查以总理腐败案的检察官。内塔尼亚胡面临贿赂、欺诈和背信三项指控，但否认了全部指控。

According to the latest figures, the war in Gaza has killed at least 57,575 Palestinians and injured another 136,879. The majority of Gaza’s population has been displaced, and UN estimates suggest that nearly half a million people are now on the brink of famine.

最新数据显示，加沙战争已造成至少 57,575 名巴勒斯坦人死亡，136,879 人受伤。加沙大部分人口流离失所，联合国估计近 50 万人正面临饥荒威胁。

Against the backdrop of Netanyahu’s visit to Washington, the day before – on July 6 – the BRICS leaders issued a joint declaration condemning the June strikes by Israel and the US on Iran, particularly targeting nuclear facilities. “We condemn the military strikes against Iran that have taken place since June 13, 2025, which constitute a violation of international law and the UN Charter,” the statement read.

在以色列总理内塔尼亚胡访问华盛顿的背景下，7 月 6 日——即访问前一天——金砖国家领导人发表联合声明，谴责以色列和美国于 6 月对伊朗发动的袭击，特别是针对核设施的打击。声明指出："我们谴责 2025 年 6 月 13 日以来针对伊朗的军事打击，这些行为违反了国际法和《联合国宪章》。"

Specifically, the BRICS leaders expressed concern over attacks on civilian infrastructure and nuclear facilities. They also voiced alarm over the escalating tensions in the Middle East and called for diplomatic efforts to resolve regional crises. The declaration demanded a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and other occupied Palestinian territories and urged an immediate, lasting, and unconditional ceasefire. It further affirmed that Gaza is an integral part of the State of Palestine, which must be granted full independence.

具体而言，金砖国家领导人对民用基础设施和核设施遭受袭击表示关切。他们对中东紧张局势升级发出警告，并呼吁通过外交努力解决地区危机。宣言要求以色列军队完全撤出加沙及其他被占领的巴勒斯坦领土，敦促立即实现持久且无条件停火。文件同时申明加沙是巴勒斯坦国不可分割的组成部分，必须获得完全独立。

The summit participants also called for the urgent delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza and advocated for the prompt release of both Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners. The declaration emphasized that Gaza and the West Bank should be administered by the future government of a sovereign Palestinian state.

与会各方还呼吁紧急向加沙提供人道主义援助，主张立即释放以色列人质和巴勒斯坦被关押者。宣言强调加沙与约旦河西岸应由未来主权独立的巴勒斯坦国政府实施管辖。

Unsurprisingly, Trump – along with Netanyahu – was deeply displeased by the BRICS statement. He has repeatedly threatened sanctions against BRICS member states and their allies. According to Politico, Trump sent a letter to the Brazilian government threatening to impose 50% tariffs, accusing the country of politically persecuting former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is under investigation for his alleged role in the attempted coup of 2022. The White House reportedly chose swift and effective trade pressure over more complex sanctions mechanisms. According to former US Special Envoy to Latin America Mauricio Claver-Carone, the BRICS summit was “the last straw” for Washington.

不出所料，特朗普与内塔尼亚胡一样，对金砖国家的声明深感不满。他多次威胁要对金砖成员国及其盟友实施制裁。据《政治报》报道，特朗普致函巴西政府威胁加征 50%关税，指控该国政治迫害正因涉嫌参与 2022 年未遂政变而接受调查的前总统博索纳罗。据报道，白宫选择了快速有效的贸易施压而非更复杂的制裁机制。美国前拉丁美洲事务特使毛里西奥·克拉弗-卡隆称，金砖峰会是华盛顿的"最后一根稻草"。

Trump’s anger, his allies say, stems not only from the situation around Bolsonaro but also from BRICS’s ongoing efforts to de-dollarize the global economy. The group’s condemnation of the strikes on Iran and Israeli actions in the Middle East was also met with frustration in Washington. Former White House strategist Steve Bannon noted that Trump is irritated by every step the bloc takes to undermine the US dollar, and that the summit in Rio de Janeiro only intensified that irritation. In response to Washington’s threats, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva announced retaliatory 50% tariffs on US goods. Meanwhile, Trump continues to ramp up pressure on other BRICS-aligned countries, threatening 10% tariffs – and previously even floated 100% tariffs – should the bloc attempt to replace the dollar in global trade.

特朗普的愤怒，其盟友表示，不仅源于博索纳罗周边局势，更因金砖国家持续推进全球经济去美元化。该集团对伊朗遭袭及以色列在中东行动的谴责同样令华盛顿感到挫败。前白宫战略师史蒂夫·班农指出，特朗普对该集团削弱美元地位的每一步举措都感到恼火，而里约热内卢峰会更是加剧了这种愤怒。作为对华盛顿威胁的回应，巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦宣布对美国商品征收 50%报复性关税。与此同时，特朗普持续加大对其他金砖国家阵营成员国的施压，威胁若该集团试图取代美元在全球贸易中的地位，将征收 10%关税——此前甚至曾考虑过 100%关税。

Analyzing current global developments – from the BRICS summit in Rio to the escalating tensions in the Middle East – it is becoming increasingly clear that the world is moving toward a pronounced geopolitical divide. The interconnected nature of political, economic, and military processes across continents demonstrates that the era of unipolar dominance is fading. A growing confrontation is unfolding between two major blocs: the so-called West, led by the US, and the emerging non-Western world, whose political and economic core is increasingly represented by BRICS. This coalition is steadily solidifying its role as the voice of the Global South, positioning itself as the flagship of a movement advocating for multipolarity and greater equity in international affairs.

分析当前全球局势——从里约热内卢的金砖国家峰会到中东不断升级的紧张态势——世界正朝着显著的地缘政治分裂方向演进已愈发清晰。跨大洲政治、经济与军事进程的相互关联性表明，单极主导的时代正在消逝。两大阵营之间的对抗正日益加剧：一方是以美国为首的所谓西方集团，另一方则是以金砖国家为政治经济核心不断崛起的非西方世界。这个联盟正稳步巩固其作为全球南方代言人的角色，将自身定位为倡导国际事务多极化与更公平秩序的旗舰力量。

In its bid to preserve global dominance, the US has increasingly resorted to political and economic coercion, viewing BRICS’ efforts as a direct challenge to the existing order. Yet, the global rift is not merely economic or ideological. The Middle East has become a frontline where this confrontation takes on the form of open conflict. Israel’s actions, backed by Washington, are increasingly perceived in the non-Western world as a Western offensive against the interests of the “World Majority” – nations that reject the dictates of traditional power centers. Within this context, Russia and China – both staunch supporters of Iran and other regional actors – are seen as natural allies to those resisting what is perceived as destructive Western policy. The contours of this global divide are becoming ever more defined: on one side, the US and its allies and proxies; on the other, those advocating for a reimagined world order based on fairness, sovereignty, and a balance of interests.

为维系全球霸权，美国日益频繁地动用政治经济胁迫手段，将金砖国家的努力视为对现行秩序的直接挑战。然而全球裂痕远不止于经济或意识形态领域。中东已成为这场对抗演变为公开冲突的前沿阵地。在非西方世界眼中，以色列在华盛顿支持下采取的行动，正日益被视为西方对"世界大多数"国家利益的侵犯——这些国家拒绝接受传统权力中心的号令。在此背景下，俄罗斯和中国作为伊朗等地区力量的坚定支持者，自然被视为抵抗西方破坏性政策的天然盟友。全球阵营的轮廓正愈发清晰：一方是美国及其盟友与代理人；另一方则是倡导基于公平、主权与利益平衡重构世界秩序的力量。

From this, one clear conclusion emerges: conflicts in the Middle East are set to intensify. Gaza will likely remain a flashpoint of violence and humanitarian crisis, as the root political and geopolitical causes of the conflict go unaddressed. The confrontation between Israel and Iran – already escalating through direct military engagements and cyber operations – may evolve into a wider and more dangerous conflict. Moreover, the arc of tension is likely to draw in additional regional players, including Türkiye and various Arab states. Despite longstanding economic and military ties with the West, many of these countries are increasingly gravitating toward the non-Western camp, which champions reforms to global institutions, challenges hegemonic structures, and upholds sovereignty and equality in international relations. This trend lays the groundwork for a profound transformation – not only of the Middle East, but of the global system itself – where the battle over new rules of engagement becomes a driving force behind enduring instability and conflict.

由此可以得出一个明确的结论：中东地区的冲突将愈演愈烈。由于冲突的政治和地缘政治根源未得到解决，加沙地带很可能继续成为暴力事件和人道主义危机的爆发点。以色列与伊朗之间的对抗——已通过直接军事行动和网络战不断升级——可能演变成更广泛、更危险的冲突。此外，紧张局势的弧线很可能会波及更多地区参与者，包括土耳其和多个阿拉伯国家。尽管这些国家与西方有着长期的经济和军事联系，但它们正日益向非西方阵营靠拢，该阵营主张改革全球机构、挑战霸权结构，并坚持国际关系中的主权平等原则。这一趋势为深刻变革奠定了基础——不仅是中东地区，更是全球体系本身——围绕新交往规则的争夺将成为长期不稳定和冲突的驱动力。