QA：关税本应导致通货膨胀急剧上升，但为什么美国的通货膨胀却持续下降？“你是被锁在阁楼里吗？学会补袜子，穿有洞的t恤吧！”

Brian Cooke
While inflation has not risen dramatically, it has definitely not “gone down”.
It will be felt here in Canada too. Predictions are it has n ot hit and will suddenly be much more of an an “in your face” reality check for Americans than it will be for other countries as they are still allies and re writing and moving ahead with new trade agreements, without the “unreliable” US.
The supply chain, wholesale and retail stockpiling, consumer stockpiling, warehousing of “yet to be released tariffed stock is still being used or held, hoping for trade deals, or removal of all tariffs.
Harvest season is not fully hit with the reduction in “foreign workers” being removed or running for cover. The harvest processing marketing and distribution of food impacted by the looming labour shortage and tariffs has not had time to really impact yet.
Combine all the realities above with:
The US Administration fudging numbers,
Fools believing Trumps declarations that eggs and gas are cheaper… ( coughing “bullshit” under my breath…!) ,
Watching FOX entertainment and not real news,
Not actually tracking your pay, budget, spending and savings…
Being naive, trusting and hopeful… sure you might be tricked into thinking “inflation is down”.
Knowing the same or less about economics than Trump. “Nothing from nothing” is the sum there BTW.
The time to watch is the fall to Christmas. By then, the supply chain will have reacted along with importers and business big and small. The international shifts away from American trade and products and the fall out from the current lost tourist season with low winter future bookings will come home to roost.
When you enter the new heating season or go to replace your car or get it repaired this fall or later… sticker shock wont just be an expression you’ve heard.
When your investments, pension funds and savings are stunted or losing money and your benefits are cut… And retirement is now going to have to wait three four or five more years.
The point is… pay attention, do some math, and wait a couple of months… I hope you are prepared.
 
 虽然通胀没有大幅上升，但绝对也没有“下降”。
加拿大也感受到了通胀的影响。预计通胀尚未达到顶峰，但对美国人来说，这比对其他国家来说，会突然变成一次“直面现实”的考验，因为这些国家仍然是盟友，正在重新修订和推进新的贸易协定，里面不再包含“不可靠”的美国。
供应链、批发和零售囤货、消费者囤货，以及“尚未放行的关税库存”的仓储仍在使用或持有，期待着达成贸易协议或取消所有关税。
由于“外国工人”减少或被迫撤离或寻求庇护，收获季节尚未完全受到影响。受迫在眉睫的劳动力短缺和关税影响的收获、加工、营销和食品分销尚未真正发挥作用。

将以上所有现实与以下情况结合起来：
1、美国政府捏造数据，
2、傻瓜们相信特朗普关于鸡蛋和汽油比过去更便宜的声明……（我低声咳嗽着说“胡说八道”……！），
3、看福克斯娱乐节目而不是真正的新闻，
4、没有真正追踪你的工资、预算、支出和储蓄……
5、天真、轻信、充满希望……你肯定会被误导，以为“通货膨胀率下降了”。
6、对经济学的了解与特朗普相同或更少。“无中生有”就是总结。顺便说一句。

秋季到圣诞节期间是最需要关注的时期。到那时，供应链、进口商以及大大小小的企业都会做出反应。国际市场对美国贸易和产品的转移，以及当前旅游旺季的衰退和冬季未来预订量的低迷，都将带来负面影响。

当你进入新的供暖季节，或者在今年秋天或之后更换或维修你的汽车时……价格冲击将不仅仅是你听到过的说法。
当你的投资、养老基金和储蓄陷入困境或亏损，你的福利被削减……而退休现在又要等上三四年或者五年了。
关键是……注意，算一下，再等几个月……我希望你已经做好准备了。
 


Fred Curry
Watching Fox TV again, say 10 Hail Mary’s and go and sin no more!
In what bubble are you living in that you have not noticed prices inching up on every item that is imported?
And Trump said “If you want to avoid paying the tariffs then buy american made products.”
O K tell me where I can buy american grown bananas?
 
 又在看福克斯电视台了，念十遍万福玛利亚咒，然后别再犯罪了！​​
你是生活在什么样的泡沫里，竟然没注意到所有进口商品的价格都在上涨？
特朗普还说：“如果你想避免支付关税，那就买美国制造的产品。”
好吧，告诉我哪里可以买到美国产的香蕉？


DBA
It must really be wonderful to live in a world where, if you don't like something, you simply declare it to not be true and go in with life. And if you want something to be true, you just decide that is what you are going to believe.
No worrying about facts. No problem with logic or critical thinking. No worries about reality. Just blame everything on whatever group it is you want to hate, declare it is their fault and never have to face reality.
What a pleasant little world.
Never mind details like facts, truth, data, and reality. Just make up your own.
And who cares if the entire rest of the world knows you are insane or stupid.
 
生活在这样一个世界里一定很美好：如果你不喜欢某件事，你只需宣称它不是真的，然后继续生活下去，就好了。如果你希望某件事是真的，你只需决定相信它就行了。
不用担心事实。逻辑和批判性思维都没问题。不用担心现实。只需把一切都归咎于你想恨的群体，宣称这是他们的错，然后永远不必面对现实。
多么美好的小世界啊。
别在意事实、真相、数据和现实之类的细节。只需创造你自己想要的。
谁在乎全世界都知道你是疯子还是傻瓜呢。

 
Stephen Ford
Time lag.
The inflation figures look backwards over the last year, most of which was under the Biden administration incidentally.
Tariffs will only affect the inflation figures some time after the tariffs kick in and the goods concerned have arrived on the shelves in the shops. It will take until about November before they really start to bite, but be assured, they will bite, big time. The inflation figures are going to shoot up.
 
时间滞后了。
通胀数据回顾的是过去一年的情况，顺便提一句，其中大部分是在拜登政府执政期间。
关税只有在生效、相关商品上架一段时间后才会对通胀数据产生影响。关税要到11月左右才会真正开始产生影响，但请放心，影响会非常大。通胀数据将会飙升。

 
Stuart Bunt
Most US importers preloaded before tariffs were introduced, most have a month or two of inventory. Until this is gone prices will stay fairly static. They may even fall as they offload mistakes, where they ordered too much. But then….
Shortages, runs on rare items, price gouging, import tariffs pushing up prices and domestic producers raising prices to match imports (what you thought Capitalists are charitable?)
The dollar is falling and will fall further as countries sell their US bonds and invest elsewhere.
The US credit rating is falling, bond rates rising, national debt raised by that “beautiful bill” to unprecedented levels at the same time as interest on bonds rise (this is supply and demand nothing the bank governor can do about it).
Inflation is inevitable, the normal response is to raise interest rates. If Krasnov blocks this inflation will get worse and the dollar will fall further. More capital will flee the US. More countries will move to other currencies, the dollar will fall further. Servicing the US debt even worse. Recession and hyperinflation may occur as in Germany 1930s. Krasnov will then invent wars to keep in power. Iran is just the start.
 
大多数美国进口商在关税出台前就已预购了很多货物，大多数库存足以维持一两个月。在这些库存耗尽之前，价格将保持相对稳定。甚至可能随着他们错误地处理订单（例如过量订购）而下跌。但随后……
短缺、抢购稀缺商品、哄抬价格、进口关税推高价格以及国内生产商抬高价格以匹配进口（你以为资本家是仁慈的吗？）
美元正在下跌，而且随着各国抛售美国债券并投资其他市场，美元将继续下跌。
美国信用评级正在下降，债券利率上升，那张“美丽的钞票”将国债推高至前所未有的水平，同时债券利息也在上升（这是供求关系，银行行长对此无能为力）。
通货膨胀不可避免，正常的反应是加息。如果克拉斯诺夫（特朗普的俄罗斯代号）阻止通货膨胀，通货膨胀将加剧，美元将进一步下跌。更多资本将逃离美国。更多国家将转向其他货币，美元将进一步下跌。美国债务的偿还将更加困难。经济衰退和恶性通货膨胀可能会像20世纪30年代的德国那样发生。届时，克拉斯诺夫将发动战争以巩固其权力。伊朗问题只是一个开始。
 

Sharon Backer
how much are you paying for ground beef i am now paying more for ground beef than i paid for steak a year ago
yes eggs are cheaper because bird flu has become under control not due to anything this administration has done
 
你买碎牛肉要花多少钱？我现在买碎牛肉比一年前买牛排还贵。
是的，鸡蛋更便宜，因为禽流感已经得到控制，而不是因为本届政府所做的任何事情。
 
 
Marilyn Guilkey
Are you locked in an attic somewhere with just a cell phone? Every time I go to the grocery store, prices have increased. Fruit (from Mexico) has increased), meat is outrageous. Fortunately, I do not shop at Walmart as I am sure the increase in prices would give me a heart attack! Learn to darn your tube socks and wear your t-shirts with holes in them!
 
你是被锁在阁楼里，只有一部手机吗？每次我去杂货店，价格都上涨了。水果（来自墨西哥）价格增加了，肉涨价得太离谱了。幸运的是，我不在沃尔玛购物，因为我确信价格会上涨到让我心脏病发作！学会补袜子，穿有洞的t恤吧！
 
 
Yvon Tripper
There is a reason that Trump has gotten the nickname “TACO” (Trump always chickens out). He keeps announcing sky-high tariffs, then a few days later when he gets the blowback, he backs down and comes up with excuses to delay them. Then he announces even more tariffs a few days later, then chickens out again a few days later. That behavior is damaging to the economy because it causes businesses to stop purchasing, hiring and planning for the future until they have some idea what the costs to them are actually going to be. But announcing taxes and then backing down over and over again isn’t inflationary.
 
特朗普获得“TACO（原意：墨西哥卷饼，又是“特朗普总是退缩”的缩写）的绰号是有原因的。他一直在宣布极高的关税，但几天后，当他受到反击时，他退缩了，并找借口拖延关税。几天后，他宣布征收更多关税，几天后又再次退出。这种行为对经济是有害的，因为它会导致企业停止购买、雇佣和规划未来，直到他们知道自己的实际成本是多少。但宣布税收，然后一次又一次地退缩，这并不是对抗通货膨胀的方法。
 
 
Profile photo for Bill Mueller
The tariffs are not fully in effect. I suspect since gasoline prices have increased that would be considered inflationary. Automobile prices have increased which would be considered inflationary. Consumer goods prices have increased which would be considered inflationary. The biggest reason though is whenever an announced tariff start date was supposed to happen it was extended out 90 days or the 145% Chinese tariff was reduced to 30% or the tariff that was supposed to announced on electronics was removed. There is a reason our current President has earned the TACO name he cannot adhere to his announced tariff policies and if he does we will see hyperinflation of he continues like he is doing we will see stagflation that should be a treat for those of you that weren’t adults in the 1970s and 1980s.
 
关税尚未完全生效。我怀疑，由于汽油价格上涨，这将被视为通货膨胀。汽车价格上涨，这将被视为通货膨胀。消费品价格上涨，这将被视为通货膨胀。不过，最大的原因是，无论何时宣布关税开始日期，都会延长90天，或者将145%的中国关税降至30%，或者取消了本应宣布的电子产品关税。我们现任总统获得TACO的称号是有原因的，他不能遵守他宣布的关税政策，如果他这样做，我们将看到恶性通货膨胀。他将继续像现在这样继续下去，我们会看到滞胀，这对你们这些活在20世纪70年代和80年代还不是成年人的人来说应该是一种享受。


Paul Fletcher
Because of the tariffs costing you more, you are not able to buy as much as you could last year, there is less demand. Hence inflation falls.
 
 由于关税增加，你的成本上升，你无法像去年那样购买那么多商品，需求也随之减少。因此，通货膨胀率下降了。

Jon Davis
Well, firstly, it isn’t consistently going down - there are several measures of inflation, but if you take base monthly CPI as your measure, there was a slight increase in the first couple of months of Trump’s administration and since then it has slowly sunk back to around the same level as under Biden.
Most people predict that inflation will rise due to tariffs, but there will be a delay. Retailers will run down stocks of pre-tariff goods before raising prices, manufacturers will likewise run down stocks of pre-tariff raw materials and components, and some larger companies may try and absorb the cost of the tariffs in the hope that Trump will change his mind again. It won’t last.
 
 首先，通胀并非持续下降——衡量通胀的指标有很多，但如果以基准月度CPI为衡量标准，特朗普执政头几个月通胀略有上升，此后缓慢回落至拜登执政时期的水平。
大多数人预测通胀会因关税而上升，但会有一个延迟。零售商会在提价前消耗掉关税前的商品库存，制造商也会消耗关税前的原材料和零部件库存，一些规模较大的公司可能会试图消化关税成本，希望特朗普再次改变主意。这种情况不会持续太久。
 
 
JD Harper
What kind of pharmaceutical are you taking that makes you think that prices are not increasing?
Wait until later this summer, things are going to get worse when Trump’s petulant nature takes full control and he starts putting tariffs on everything, including products imported from the Moon and Mars.
 
你服用了什么药，竟然觉得物价没涨？
等到今年夏末，情况会变得更糟，届时特朗普的任性本性将完全占据主导地位，他会开始对所有产品征收关税，包括从月球和火星进口的产品。



Mary Andersen
Sales of discretionary items have declined. No one knows if tariffs have actually be collected, if they are still in place due to Trump’s whims. Food prices are still increasing.
 
可自由支配商品的销售额有所下降。没有人知道关税是否真的已经被征收，是否由于特朗普的突发奇想而仍然存在。食品价格仍在上涨。
 
 
Steve Arrian
The tariffs haven’t kicked in.
Economic activity is slowing down. Slow sales mean slow inflation.
IT workers are big spenders, but they are facing net job losses now, causing them to slow personal spending
Also, as housing markets reach frenzy level as in the last several years, buyers lose sight of affordability and over-leverage on their home purchase, leaving less for consumption. I remember my whole neighborhood was “house poor” in the 1970s.
Canadians have stopped buying our products, lowering demand which lowers supply 
20 million immigrants are too scared to spend freely.
Countervailing this recessionary environment, Democrat’s Obamacare has exploded medical sector jobs, while the landmark Democrat bills of 2021–2 have lit a fire under infrastructure’s ass.
 
关税还没有生效。
经济活动正在放缓。销售缓慢意味着通货膨胀缓慢。
IT工作者是大开支者，但他们现在正面临净失业，导致他们放慢了个人支出
此外，随着房地产市场达到过去几年的疯狂水平，买家忽视了购房的可负担性和过度杠杆，导致消费减少。我记得在20世纪70年代，我的整个社区都是“穷房子”。
加拿大人已经停止购买我们的产品，降低了需求，从而减少了供应。
2000万移民害怕自由消费。
为了应对这种经济衰退的环境，民主党的奥巴马医改使医疗部门的工作岗位激增，而2021-2022年具有里程碑意义的民主党法案在基础设施的屁股下点燃了火。

 
James Allen
Manufacturing output is rising. Manufacturing jobs are growing. Money supply is shrinking. Energy production via cheaper domestic sources is lowering supply chain costs.
No one of these, but the sum of these improvements is providing downward pressure on prices.
Import
Also, imports comprise only 13% of US economic activity. And not all products are being subjected, and key players have already, or are soon to come to deals on lowering their tariffs, so our tariff increases won’t be imposed.
Then, most tariff increases won’t occur until the July 9th deadline.
And a lot of products are being bought in ahead of July 9th.
 
 制造业产出正在上升。制造业就业岗位正在增加。货币供应量正在萎缩。通过更廉价的国内能源生产正在降低供应链成本。
所有这些改进并非单方面的，而是叠加起来，正在对价格产生下行压力。
进口：
此外，进口仅占美国经济活动的13%。并非所有产品都受到关税影响，主要参与者已经或即将达成降低关税的协议，因此我们的关税上调不会被强制执行。
这样一来，大多数关税上调要到7月9日的最后期限才会发生。
而且，许多产品在7月9日之前就已经被购买。


M Mesmer
According to American voters Biden created inflation as part of a Democrat plot to destroy America. . Now that he’s gone it’s obviously going to take time to get prices back to where they were during President Trump’s first term. Until the president has the authority to cancel Biden’s pardons Biden is still free and still able to raise prices using Hunter’s laptop they say..
 
 据美国选民称，是拜登制造了通货膨胀，这是民主党摧毁美国的阴谋之一。如今他已下台，物价显然需要时间才能恢复到特朗普总统第一任期内的水平。他们说，在总统有权取消拜登的赦免之前，拜登仍然自由，并且仍然能够利用亨特的笔记本电脑抬高物价。
 

Bruce Watson
Unless the 700 major economists who endorsed Harris last year were wrong, tariffs do cause inflation. My guess is that they haven’t kicked in yet, plus Trump has backpedaled on many of them. Stay tuned.
 
 除非去年支持哈里斯的700位主要经济学家错了，否则关税确实会导致通胀。我猜测关税尚未生效，而且特朗普已经在许多关税问题上退缩了。敬请期待。
 
L Belle
The economy as a whole was chugging along as in inflation was dropping from post pandemic economic policies. This year there was a slight bump from fear of the new administration’s policies but since there is no clear direction on economic policies and on again off again tariff, and edging near another Middle East war, things could get “hairy” or the economy will keep going as is..
 
 由于疫情后的经济政策，通胀正在下降，整体经济仍在缓慢运行。今年，由于对新政府政策的担忧，经济略有回升，但由于经济政策方向不明，关税反复无常，加之又一场中东战争即将爆发，形势可能会变得“棘手”，或者经济将维持现状。