QA回答:如果中国获得了一架坠毁的F-22或F-35战机,这对他们有多大价值?
If China got their hands on a crashed F-22 or F-35, how useful would it be to them?
译文简介
网友:零!中国不再需要那些坠毁的无价值垃圾机器进行研究。F22太老了。F35问题太多。美国人应该为它们感到非常自豪,把它们当作只能在博物馆展示的昔日荣光。中国已经能够凭借其最好的风洞系统、超级计算机以及半导体和材料工业,自主设计和建造世界级的高科技机器。
正文翻译
零!中国不再需要那些坠毁的无价值垃圾机器进行研究。F22太老了。F35问题太多。美国人应该为它们感到非常自豪,把它们当作只能在博物馆展示的昔日荣光。中国已经能够凭借其最好的风洞系统、超级计算机以及半导体和材料工业,自主设计和建造世界级的高科技机器。
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Not really useful.
没什么用。
If it is an intact F-22 or F-35, then it is useful, as China can move them into an EM dark room and make a detailed analysis on the radar reflection, which will aid in image reconstruction in their AA missiles.
如果是一架完整的 F-22 或 F-35,那就有用了,因为中国可以把它们搬进电磁暗室,对其雷达反射进行详细分析,这将有助于其防空导弹的图像重构。
Modern missiles in China uses something called imagine reconstruction target identification technique. It is basically an advanced military version of your facial recognition algorithm on smart phones. What it does is that it will take the radar and heat signature from the target and reconstruction them digitally into shapes and patterns and then the onboard computer in the missile will see if it is the intended target.
中国的现代导弹使用一种叫做图像重构目标识别技术的东西。它基本上是你智能手机上人脸识别算法的先进军用版本。它的作用是获取目标的雷达和热信号特征,将其数字化重构成形状和图案,然后导弹上的机载计算机就会判断这是否是预定目标。
This means unlike the Hollywood movies, flares and decoys will not work against these modern missiles, because these missiles can actually tell which is a plane and which are the decoys.
这意味着,不像好莱坞电影里那样,热焰弹和诱饵对这些现代导弹不起作用,因为这些导弹实际上能分辨出哪架是飞机,哪些是诱饵。
There was a rumor floating around back in 2000s that the reason US bombed the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade back in 1999 was due to Yugoslavia passing on some of the wreckage of the F-117:
在2000年代曾流传着一个谣言,说美国在1999年轰炸中国驻贝尔格莱德大使馆的原因,是南斯拉夫转交了一些F-117的残骸:
But that’s more than 20 years ago. Chinese stealth aircraft coating has been through at least three major revision in the main time while US material science didn’t actually change much in the mean time.
但那都是20多年前的事了。在此期间,中国的隐身战机涂层至少经历了三次重大改进,而美国的材料科学在此期间并没有太大变化。
Of course, the whole thing is a rumor in the first place, there is no confirmation whatsoever.
当然,整件事首先就是个谣言,没有任何证实。
Rodra Hascaryo
Depends on what you define as “crash”. Crash into the sea and broke up into tiny pieces? Probably worthless. There’s only so much you can learn about the latest American technology from literal nuts and bolts scattered all over the seabed.
这取决于你对“坠毁”的定义。坠入大海并摔成碎片?可能毫无价值。你能从散落在海底的零散螺母螺栓(喻指碎片)中学到的最新技术知识是有限的。
Crash landed but mostly intact? A lot. You can bet that every bit of the airplane is going to be scrutinized, regardless whether they’re intact or not, looking for answers they wanted to know and also for stuff that they don’t know that they don’t know. An intact airplane is a lot easier to study.
坠毁着陆但大体完整?价值很大。你可以打赌,飞机的每一个部分都会被仔细检查,不管它们是否完好,目的是寻找他们想知道的答案,以及那些他们不知道自己不知道的东西。一架完整的飞机研究起来要容易得多。
(This was not even a “crash landing”, the landing gear failed on a routine landing)
(这甚至算不上“坠毁着陆”,只是起落架在常规着陆时故障了)
This is probably what they’re hoping for. You can guarantee that within a few years China would have reverse engineered everything. When the jet gets shipped back, it would be in pieces. This was more or less the standard operating procedure for both sides during the Cold War whenever they can get their hands on the enemy’s hardware.
这很可能就是他们所希望的。你可以保证,几年之内中国就能把一切都逆向工程出来。等这架飞机被运回时,它只会是一堆碎片。这在冷战时期,每当双方能拿到对方硬件时,或多或少就是标准的操作程序。
China is probably interested in the insides of the airplane more than anything else, things like radar, sensors, avionics, and electronics. Of course, the Chinese would also be grateful for any extra tips on how to make stealthy and reliable jet engines.
中国可能对飞机的内部构造最感兴趣,比如雷达、传感器、航电系统和电子设备。当然,中国人也会感谢任何关于如何制造隐形且可靠喷气发动机的额外提示。
Depending on the crash, some of these may be intact. But a lot would depend on luck, which is why no serious airplane development hinges on fortunate accidents happening.
坠机情况不同,有些部件可能完好无损。但这很大程度上取决于运气,因此正规的飞机研发绝不会依赖侥幸事故的发生。
Felix Su
It should be somewhat useful. The coating is something that everyone wants to look at to see if they did something different. You can always learn something, even if it’s what not to do. The coating on the F-35 has some issues. It peels off if you go supersonic for more than a few minutes.
应该有些用处。涂层是每个人都想看看的东西,看看他们是否做了些不同的事情。你总能学到点东西,即使学到的是不该做什么。F-35的涂层有些问题。如果你以超音速飞行超过几分钟,它就会剥落。
If I were them, I would want to study the structure of the interior of the plane. The engineering compromises the designers made. It will let you better understand how to fight against it better. The weak points so to speak. Although at this point, the scandals about the F-35 are so many that they probably know many of the weak points but still, you would want to verify.
如果我是他们,我会想研究飞机内部的结构。设计师所做的工程权衡。这会让你更好地理解如何更有效地对抗它。也就是所谓的弱点。尽管目前关于F-35的丑闻已经够多了,他们可能知道很多弱点,但你仍然会想要验证。
They would probably be most interested in the electronics suite in the plane rather than the plane itself. By studying the electronics, they would know better how to counter the F-35. How to disrupt the data sharing network. Once the network goes down, the plane will be fighting by itself. Which makes it easy to kill.
他们可能对飞机上的电子设备套件最感兴趣,而不是飞机本身。通过研究电子设备,他们能更清楚如何反制F-35。如何破坏数据共享网络。一旦网络瘫痪,飞机就只能单打独斗。这就很容易被击落。
You will see many Youtube videos on which plane is better. But in the real world planes don’t do dogfights like in some kind of arena battle. They are engaged with each other in a theater and it depends on what support the fighter planes has. Whoever has the better data, ie. know where the enemy is, how many, how high, how fast, etc. will be the winner.
你会看到很多关于哪种飞机更好的YouTube视频。但在现实世界中,飞机不会像在竞技场战斗中那样进行狗斗。它们在一个战区交火,胜负取决于战斗机拥有什么样的支援。谁拥有更好的数据,即知道敌人在哪里、有多少、多高、多快等等,谁就是赢家。
Because as I said, planes don’t fight by themselves. Today, the planes will be preceded by drones carrying ATA (air to air) missiles. Very long range ATA missiles and GTA (ground to air) missiles. There will also be drones with IR, radar, etc. Drones with ECM (electronic counter measure).
因为正如我所说,飞机不会独自作战。如今,飞机前方会有携带空对空(ATA)导弹的无人机。非常远程的空对空导弹和地对空(GTA)导弹。还会有携带红外、雷达等的无人机。以及带有电子对抗(ECM)措施的无人机。
Which ever side can deny the other side information and gather the most information will most likely win.
哪一方能封锁对方情报并收集最多信息,哪一方就最有可能获胜。
Which means that the battle location will likely determine the winner. If it is near China, then the US is totally screwed. If it is in the middle of the Ocean, then it depends on the numbers and what is involved in the battle. If it is near the US then China would be screwed.
这意味着战场位置很可能决定胜负。如果靠近中国,那美国就完蛋了。如果在大洋中间,那就取决于数量和参战力量。如果靠近美国,那中国就完蛋了。
Bengt Persson
It’s hard to gain much additional knowledge from a crashed plane. I then suppose US has a “SW self-destruct” mechanism, that erases all SW, manuals and crypto-keys in case of a crash.
很难从一架坠毁的飞机中获得太多额外知识。那么我猜想美国有“软件自毁”机制,在坠机时删除所有软件、手册和加密密钥。
Almost all details of the physical appearance of the plane has been published. More info on that is hardly interesting.
飞机物理外观的几乎所有细节都已公布。关于这方面的更多信息几乎没什么意思。
Performance for the different components can be are found in sales material. Looking at the device will hardly give any better information. Even starting it, it will not be possible to deduct actual performance without the SW that control it and process results.
不同部件的性能可以在销售材料中找到。查看设备本身几乎不会提供任何更好的信息。即使能启动它,没有控制它和处理结果的软件,也不可能推导出实际性能。
Most of the really essential information is digital. Like SW that control instability that will tell detailed information about actual turning radius in different flight conditions. Or how the designers made sensor integration work in practice.
真正重要的信息大多是数字化的。比如控制不稳定性的软件,它会告诉你不同飞行条件下的实际转弯半径等详细信息。或者设计师如何在实践中实现传感器融合。
Though, one thing that is not published and they will learn is what the stealth coating used consist of.
不过,有一项未公布的东西他们会学到,那就是所用隐身涂层的成分。
Jon Mixon
Moderately useful.
中等有用。
However what a number of these answers seem to be overlooking is that China has something more useful than a wrecked aircraft: They had boatloads of cash.
然而,许多回答似乎忽略了一点,那就是中国拥有比一架坠毁飞机更有用的东西:他们有大量的现金。
There are hundreds of thousands of pages of technical materials, maintenance records, parts lists, and assorted test data that the Chinese can either locate and buy; or they can sit around and wait for a greedy or disgruntled former contractor or service member to offer them. Both would save them BILLIONS in R&D costs, it would point out issues that the Department of Defense is keeping secret from the general public, and it might even assist them in making a slightly better product.
有成千上万页的技术材料、维护记录、零件清单和各种测试数据,中国人可以找到并购买;或者他们可以坐等贪婪或心怀不满的前承包商或服役人员主动提供给他们。这两种方式都能为他们节省数十亿美元的研发成本,能指出国防部向公众保密的问题,甚至可能帮助他们制造出稍好一点的产品。
So if C wanted to know HOW to manufacture aircraft like the F-22 or the F-35 they can buy all of the available information. Unfortunately for the C government, high levels of corruption, a lack of motivation, and their stifling of creativity, means that even with the available data, it would take them years to copy one of the aircraft and the final results would likely be questionable.
所以,如果C想知道如何制造像F-22或F-35这样的飞机,他们可以购买所有可用的信息。不幸的是,对C政府来说,高度的fb、缺乏动力以及他们对创造力的压制,意味着即使有了可用数据,他们也需要数年时间来复制其中一架飞机,而且最终结果很可能令人怀疑。
When spying meets R&D, spying usually wins the battle. However it rarely wins the war.
当间谍活动遇到研发时,间谍活动通常能赢得战役。但它很少能赢得战争。
Bryan Robertson
They’d be able to get an accurate bead on the passive stealth characteristics and would get a general idea on the electronics - also would be able to test recent intelligence drops against the platform to see how accurate and how much misinformation they had on the stealth programs.
他们将能够准确掌握被动隐身特性,并对电子设备有个大致了解——还能够用这个平台来测试最近获得的情报,看看他们掌握的隐身项目情报有多准确,有多少是错误信息。
Complete reverse engineering would be rather difficult and would need serious breaches of US sources in order to make headway in a couple of decades.
完全逆向工程将相当困难,需要严重突破美国的消息来源,才能在几十年内取得进展。
William PY Liew
A fully intact fighter jet is of course worth much more than a crushed jet. That’s why the Ukrainian comedian is so persistent & insistent in asking & begging for fighter jets from the USA so that he can sell them (and other military weapons, equipment & Hardwares) in the extremely lucrative & thriving black market.
一架完全完好的战斗机当然比一架压扁的飞机值钱得多。这就是为什么那位乌克兰喜剧演员如此坚持不懈地要求并乞求美国提供战斗机,以便他能在极其有利可图且繁荣的黑市上出售它们(以及其他军用武器、设备和硬件)。
Matt Kiddoo
That answer is NOT Zero. So please don’t listen to anyone that says that. There would be useful information & technologies that could possibly learn from the crashed airfrxs. How much I don’t know because I don’t know how much the Chinese already know about those two aircraft. There is a rumor that some of the F-35 information was compromised by hacking by the Chinese. If true I doubt that we will learn how much or what exactly because some of it is classified and the US is not going to let others know what was hacked or if the hackers got information that is relevant now.
答案绝不是零。所以请不要听信任何说零的人。从坠毁的机身中还是可能学到有用的信息和技术。具体有多少我不知道,因为我不清楚中国人对这两架飞机已经了解多少。有传言说部分F-35信息被中国黑客入侵泄露了。如果属实,我怀疑我们不会知道具体有多少或具体是什么,因为其中一些是机密,而且美国不会让别人知道什么被黑了,或者黑客是否拿到了现在仍有价值的信息。
The US Aircraft Manufacturing Industry does some stuff different that the Chinese, so they’d learn that. They’d also learn how better to defeat either aircraft in combat.
美国飞机制造业有些做法与中国不同,所以他们会学到这些。他们还会学到如何在战斗中更好地击败这两种飞机。
It all depends on how damaged the crashed airfrxs are. There was supposedly a lot learned from the crashed F-117 that was shot down over the Balkans in 1999. Both Russia & China gleaned information from that airfrx.
这都取决于坠毁机身的损坏程度。据说从1999年在巴尔干上空被击落的F-117残骸中学到了很多东西。俄罗斯和中国都从那架残骸中收集了信息。
I don’t believe the Chinese stealth aircraft are as advanced as either of the F-22 or the F-35 because both Russia & China tend to take more conventional & simple approaches to building their aircraft than the US. So they would learn something & it would prove useful. And they depending on how useful it is to the Chinese they’d either keep it to themselves or if they didn’t find it useful and already knew about it then they might sell the information to Russia or another country.
我不认为中国的隐形飞机有F-22或F-35那么先进,因为俄罗斯和中国在飞机制造上往往比美国采取更传统、更简单的方法。所以他们会学到一些东西,而且会被证明是有用的。而中国人会根据这些信息对他们的有用程度,要么秘而不宣,要么如果觉得没用或者已经知道,就可能会把信息卖给俄罗斯或其他国家。
Donald Canton
Zero.
零。
China doesn’t need those crashed worthless junk machines for research anymore. F22 is too old. F35 has too many problems. Americans should be very proud of them as their old glories for display in the museum only. China has already been able to design and build their world-class high-tech machines on its own with its best wind tunnel systems and supercomputers and semiconductor and material industries.
中国不再需要那些坠毁的无价值垃圾机器进行研究。F22太老了。F35问题太多。美国人应该为它们感到非常自豪,把它们当作只能在博物馆展示的昔日荣光。中国已经能够凭借其最好的风洞系统、超级计算机以及半导体和材料工业,自主设计和建造世界级的高科技机器。
The Chinese scientists and engineers are too busy working on the next better system research and development projects and programs to waste their time and money on the old worthless foreign systems. They just improve their own systems and start up something new from scratch as their top national security secrets that no foreigners know.
中国的科学家和工程师们正忙于进行下一代更优系统的研发项目和计划,没时间也没金钱浪费在老旧无价值的外国系统上。他们只是改进自己的系统,并从头开始打造全新的东西,作为最高国家机密,外国人无从知晓。
For example, a group of Chinese scientists and a PhD student built the world first advanced artificial intelligence robotic cat and mouse game with their new hardware and software systems.
例如,一组中国科学家和一名博士生用他们新的硬件和软件系统,建造了世界上首个先进的人工智能机器人猫鼠游戏。
China has been very interesting to all the scientists in the world. What a nice surprise.
中国一直让全世界的科学家都感到非常有趣。真是个惊喜。
Where have all the latest American inventions been hidden? The Chinese can’t make a copy or steal but have to invent the new ones themselves. Sorry for the Americans who lost the world class top position and title to the Chinese.
所有美国的最新发明都藏到哪里去了?中国人无法复制或偷窃,只能自己发明新的。为那些将世界顶级地位和头衔输给中国人的美国人感到遗憾。
Americans could make guesses and always conclude that China were so inferior to the USA.
美国人可以猜测,并总是得出中国远不如美国的结论。
Steve Lussing
Not very. They have no interest in reverse engineering a plane that has never seen combat and routinely spontaneously falls out of the sky and into the sea, or that slides off of an AC. The fact that you know that I'm referring to the F-35 says something to that. Ejecting out of a jet fighter hurts, you know.
不太有用。他们对逆向工程一架从未参加过实战、经常自己就从天上掉进海里、或者从航母上滑下去的飞机没兴趣。你知道我指的是F-35这个事实就说明了问题。你知道,从战斗机里弹射出来是很疼的。
Neither is China interested in reverse engineering a fighter which is out of production and which is more or less considered obsolete by the forces from the country of origin.
中国对逆向工程一架已停产、并且或多或少被原产国军队认为过时的战斗机也没兴趣。
If you know the Chinese at all then you know that they are fully up to the challenge of producing a superior product that doesn't routinely fall out of the sky or get wrinkled skin from flying at high velocities. China is far more modern than US. China has over 40,000 km of high speed rail where America has about 100 km of ‘high speed’ rail. America should stop thinking that it’s better than China. It isn't.
如果你了解中国人,你就知道他们完全有能力生产出不会经常从天上掉下来、也不会因为高速飞行而“起皱蒙皮”的优质产品。中国比美国现代得多。中国拥有超过4万公里的高速铁路,而美国只有大约100公里的所谓“高速”铁路。美国应该停止认为自己比中国好。它并不是。