国外热议:就人均GDP而言,墨西哥和阿根廷的排名高于中国,但为何我认为中国的人均生活水平明显优于这两个国家?是我的错觉吗?
In terms of per capita GDP, Mexico and Argentina rank higher than China, but why do I think China's per capita living standard is obviously better than these two countries? Am I wrong?
译文简介
网友:在这种情况下,人均GDP的重要性远不如人均净资产——中国的人均净资产高达7.5万美元,这个数字相当可观。中国人民的生活水平其实非常高。
正文翻译
在这种情况下,人均GDP的重要性远不如人均净资产——中国的人均净资产高达7.5万美元,这个数字相当可观。中国人民的生活水平其实非常高。
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提问:按人均GDP计算,墨西哥和阿根廷都排在中国前面,但为什么我觉得中国的人均生活水平明显优于这两个国家?我是不是错觉?
Answer: Correlation between per capita GDP and living standard is loose at best.
人均GDP与生活水平之间的关联最多只能算是勉强相关。
I mean, technically, the average GDP of Elon Musk and a homeless American is quite high as well, that doesn’t help said homeless American at all.
我的意思是,从技术上讲,埃隆·马斯克与一个无家可归的美国人的平均GDP都可能很高,但这对那个无家可归的人一点帮助都没有。
There is also the matter that GDP depends on the analysis method. For example, if nation XX’s health care is free or cost next to nothing, then it also generate very little GDP, on the other hand, it will improve the living standard tremendously.
还有一点,GDP取决于统计方法。例如,如果某国的医疗服务是免费或几乎免费,那么这部分“产出”就很少、贡献的GDP很低,但它却极大地提升了国民的生活水平。
Not to mention stuff like public infrastructure/education will improve vast amount of living standard, but not much GDP.
更别提公共基础设施和教育,它们能大幅改善生活水平,却未必对GDP有明显拉动。
Finally, there is a matter of disaster resilience. Luxembourg, for example, has extremely high per capita GDP, but if a big earthquake or a war hits the nation, then it has very little method to resist it. On the other hand, the same earthquake which would have devastated Luxembourg would do very little to China, because it will proportionally impact a much much smaller percentage of the nation, thus allowing the other parts of the nation to help the affected region.
最后还有抗灾能力的问题。比如卢森堡人均GDP极高,但如果遭遇大地震或战争,它几乎没有足够的方法去应对。相反,同样的灾难对中国影响就要小得多,因为中国地域和人口分布广泛,受灾区域所占比例很小,其他地区可以迅速支援救援。
Similarly, no one considers Luxembourg of any military importance. Back in WWII, Luxembourg had something like two battalion worth of troops (about 700 men) and the entire nation fell to Germany in less than eight hours.
同样地,没人认为卢森堡具有任何军事战略价值。二战时,卢森堡只有大约两个营(约700人)的部队,整个国家在不到八小时内就被德国占领。
In comparison, even when China was poor back in the 1950s, it had more than sufficient strength to defy even the superpowers. It is not exactly easy to measure peace and life.
相比之下,即便在20世纪50年代中国还很贫穷,却已具备足够的力量与超级大国抗衡。和平与生活质量无法简单用一个指标来衡量。
Plus, China is really a rough oddball nation as far as GDP goes. As a nation that practices democrat centralism (meaning only qualified senior administrators participate in leadership election), the Chinese has a tendency to undervalue its GDP. For example, micro-business in China literally don’t count as a GDP. So your street stalls and small vendors basically don’t exist for Chinese GDP calculation (they do exists, however, for resource distribution data).
此外,就GDP统计而言,中国确实是个怪异的例外。中国实行民主集中制(即只有合格的高级管理者参与领导选举),在统计上往往低估GDP。例如,中国的微型企业几乎不计入GDP,所以大街小摊和小商贩在GDP统计中“等于不存在”(但在资源分配数据里会被考虑)。
No, I am not saying whether this is good or bad, just that in comparison to the typical GDP calculation method used in other major economies, China’s GDP tend to be smaller than the actual value.
我并不是评判这样做是好是坏,只是相较于其他主要经济体的通用GDP统计方法,中国的GDP数据往往低于其真实经济规模。
Aya Shawn Well, China is indeed a very special country.
嗯,中国确实是个非常特殊的国家。
I have visited more than 20 countries, including Southeast Asia, Europe, North America and South America.
我曾访问过20多个国家,包括东南亚、欧洲、北美和南美。
In most cases, GDP denominated in US dollars can indeed reflect the local living standards, although there are some errors due to differences in purchasing power.
在大多数情况下,用美元计价的GDP能在一定程度上反映当地生活水平,尽管由于购买力差异会存在误差。
But I think at least two countries are special: China, and India. Of these two countries, China is more typical.
但我认为至少有两个国家很特殊:中国和印度。其中,中国更具代表性。
GDP denominated in US dollars does not really reflect the living standards in this country, and even PPP is not reliable.
用美元计价的GDP并不能真正反映该国的生活水平,即使换算购买力平价(PPP)也不够可靠。
I once wrote an answer comparing the living standards of an ordinary taxi driver in China, Japan and South Korea, which I think fully reflects this phenomenon.
我曾写过一篇回答,比较了中国、日本和韩国一位普通出租车司机的生活水平,我认为那很能说明这个现象。
But I have not analyzed the reasons for this phenomenon. After thinking for a while, I think there may be the following reasons
但我之前并未深入剖析其原因。思考片刻后,我认为可能有以下几点:
1.Local supply When a country's local supply of goods and services is richer, people can directly use their own currency to obtain a cheaper life, which means that even if the dollar-denominated figures are not high, the actual goods and services obtained are abundant.
1.本地供给 当一个国家本地商品和服务供给充足时,人们可以用本币享受更廉价的生活,意味着即便用美元计价的数字不高,实际获得的商品和服务却很丰富。
Coincidentally, China is such a country. They supply almost 95% of the world's industrial products and 90% of agricultural products, and they need to rely on imports for very few products and services. This is unique in the world. Overall, China needs to rely on the international market for only three types of things: oil, minerals and semiconductors. In extreme cases, only semiconductors.
而中国恰好就是这样一个国家。中国供应了全球近95%的工业品和90%的农产品,仅少数商品和服务需依赖进口。这在全球范围内都极为罕见。总体而言,中国仅在石油、矿产和半导体三类领域需依赖国际市场——极端情况下甚至只剩半导体。
Therefore, China's wealth denominated in US dollars will only be truly equal to the value of the US dollar when purchasing these three things.
因此,中国以美元计价的财力,只有在购买这三类物资时,才真正等同于该美元价值。
India is similar, but not as typical as China. India's agricultural industry is sufficient, but the supply of industrial products is obviously flawed.
印度也有类似情况,但不如中国典型。印度农业产品充足,但工业品供给明显不足。
2. Artificially low currency value The purchasing power of the domestic currency is high in the country, but not high in the global market. The value of the currency is not completely free-floating, but controlled by certain means.
2. 人为低估的货币价值 本国货币在国内购买力很强,但在国际市场购买力并不高。其汇率并非完全自由浮动,而是通过某些手段加以控制。
China has been deliberately suppressing the value of the CNY to about 14% of the US dollar, which is beneficial to the competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry.
中国长期有意将人民币汇率压在约14%美元水平,以增强制造业的国际竞争力。
But in turn, this suppresses the GDP in the data, making China's wealth look less. People's incomes look lower.
但这也在数据上“抑制”了GDP,使得中国的财富显得偏低,居民收入似乎也不高。
This is not conducive to Chinese people buying global goods, but in fact, except for things like Apple phones and Tesla cars, they don't need these things much.
这不利于国人购买全球商品,但实际上,除苹果手机、特斯拉等少数高端消费品外,普通人并不太需要这些进口货。
3. Abundant infrastructure Infrastructure is the key to balancing the rich and poor classes in a country.
3. 充足的基础设施 基础设施是拉平一个国家贫富差距的关键。
For example, a country lacks electricity, which will seriously affect the quality of life of the middle and lower classes, but has no effect on the rich class (they can install generators).
比如,一个国家如果缺电,严重影响中低收入人群的生活质量,但对富人影响不大(他们可以买发电机)。
For example, a country lacks good public transportation, which will affect the living standards of ordinary people, but not the rich (they have drivers and helicopters). Clean parks, streets, cheap hospitals, a large number of high-speed trains and airports and train stations with huge capacity.
又如,一个国家若缺乏良好的公共交通,会影响普通人的出行,却不妨碍富人(他们有专职司机或直升机)。而干净的公园、街道、廉价的医院,以及大量高铁、超大客流量的机场和车站,都能显著提升整体生活品质。
People with low incomes can also enjoy basic services, which offsets the difference in living standards between the poor and the rich.
低收入者也能享受这些基本公共服务,极大地缩小了贫富之间的生活差距。
For example: in Beijing, a poor person can spend $0.5 to take the subway to travel across the city in just 40 minutes. In a certain country, a poor person can only choose a taxi to do the same thing, which costs him $10 and takes 60 minutes.
举例: 在北京,低收入者只需约0.5美元,就能在40分钟内坐地铁穿越全城; 而在某些国家,同样的行程只能打车,花费10美元且需60分钟。
This means that in this matter, the quality of life of the poor in China is 20 times that of the latter. Of course, this example is very extreme, but it reflects the impact of public facilities on the quality of life of ordinary people.
这意味着在此情境下,中国低收入者的出行质量是对方的20倍。虽此例有些极端,但足以体现公共设施对普通人生活质量的巨大影响。
These three factors are the key reasons for the deviation between GDP figures and actual living standards. The special thing about China is that these three conditions are met at the same time. This makes China's GDP figures deviate greatly from the living standards of ordinary people, and it may be the country with the largest deviation in the world.
以上三点,正是GDP数据与实际生活水平差距的核心原因。中国的特殊之处在于,这三项条件同时具备,导致中国GDP指标与普通民众的真实生活水平存在全球最大幅度的偏差。
From the average GDP, the living standards of Chinese people should be similar to those of countries such as Turkey, Mexico, and Malaysia. But if you actually visit China, you will find that the lives of ordinary people in China's major economic regions are actually very similar to those in South Korea, Japan, Spain, and New Zealand. Of course, there are some underdeveloped areas in the west of China, but these areas have a smaller population.
单看人均GDP,中国人的生活水平应当与土耳其、墨西哥、马来西亚等国相近; 但若你真正来到中国,会发现大部分经济发达地区的普通人生活,更接近韩国、日本、西班牙和新西兰。 当然,中国西部也有部分欠发达地区,但人口相对较少。
In addition, the living standards of Chinese people are far beyond the imagination of many Chinese who have never been there, and a big reason comes from "deliberate propaganda" Both the Chinese people and the Chinese government have an obvious tendency to "promote themselves as poor."
此外,许多从未到过中国的人根本想象不到中国人的生活水平之高,而这很大程度源于“一种刻意的宣传”。 无论普通民众,还是中国政府,都有明显的“自我贬低贫穷”的倾向。
This tendency is not a deliberate political motivation, but a traditional habit in China. I have come into contact with many rich people in China, but 90% of them claim to be poor, and everyone tries not to show their wealth as much as possible.
这并非刻意的政治动机,而是一种传统习惯。 我接触过不少中国富豪,其中90%都自称“自己很穷”,并尽量低调不显露财富。
The Chinese government is the same. Even in some news and documentaries that promote "national construction achievements", they always remember to mention: "Our achievements are insignificant, poverty and backwardness have not changed, and everyone must work harder."
中国政府也是如此。即使在宣传“国家建设成就”的新闻或纪录片中,也总要补一句:“我们的成就微不足道,贫穷与落后并未改变,广大人民群众还需更加努力。”
Even when the World Bank and the United Nations announced that China has entered the ranks of middle- and high-income countries, the Chinese government still repeatedly claims that it is a "developing country" in international diplomatic occasions and claims that it is a brother of all poor countries.
即便世界银行和联合国宣布中国已进入中高收入国家行列,中国政府在国际场合仍反复强调自己是“发展中国家”,并称自己是所有贫穷国家的兄弟。
In 2020, the Chinese Premier claimed that 600 million people in China have a monthly income of no more than $1,000. But he did not tell the media that this data includes all "non-working population", that is, Chinese students, children, elderly people and non-working housewives, whose number is between 500-600 million. This has become the most classic lie of the Chinese government to hide its wealth in the 21st century.
2020年,中国曾称中国有6亿人月收入不超过1000美元,却未向媒体说明这其中包含了所有“非劳动人口”,即学生、儿童、老年人和家庭主妇,人数介于5亿至6亿之间。 这已成为21世纪中国隐瞒国富民强最经典的谎言。
I think the dual reasons of economics and politics constitute the huge deviation between the Chinese people's living standards and GDP data. Of course, I am not an economist or sociologist. I have visited China no more than ten times. My understanding of China is still very limited, and the conclusions I can draw may not be accurate. They only represent my observations and thoughts.
我认为,这种经济因素与政治因素的双重作用,造就了中国人生活水平与GDP数据间的巨大落差。 当然,我并非经济学家或社会学家,我对中国的了解也仅限于不到十次的访问,我的结论或有偏颇,仅代表个人观察与思考。
Sosow Nima Honestly, I don’t really understand it myself.
说实话,我自己也不太明白。
I once saw a video on YouTube by a Chinese guy who runs a Hardware Industry market in Argentina, sharing his local experiences. One episode really shocked me—he went shopping at a supermarket, and the prices were just outrageously high! Especially for light industrial goods like toilet paper, shampoo, and stuff like that. In China, these things are super cheap.
我曾在YouTube看到一个在阿根廷经营五金市场的中国人拍的视频,分享当地经验。其中一集令我大吃一惊——他去超市买日用品,价格简直离谱!尤其是厕纸、洗发水等轻工品。在中国,这些东西便宜得令人难以置信。
What stuck with me was that he had this stunningly beautiful assistant. A woman like that, in China, would never work as a secretary for a small business owner like him…
让我印象深刻的是,他还有一位惊为天人的美女助理。在中国,这样的女子绝不会甘愿做小老板的秘书……
From this, I’d guess that Argentina’s economy, in reality, might not be as good as China’s.
由此,我猜测阿根廷的经济现实可能并不如中国。
Here’s a webpage about prices in Beijing. (You might notice that this webpage is very unattractive, which is a characteristic of China. Websites of government agencies or state-owned entities are generally quite poor. But they are trustworthy. For example, with hospitals, if a hospital’s website looks particularly outdated, with headlines like “Our Hospital Staff Study General Secretary *’s Speech” or “Our Hospital’s Third Batch of Medical Aid Team to Africa Departs in 2024,” rest assured, this is a technically proficient and reliable hospital. But if you encounter a site with all sorts of flashy, eye-dazzling effects, steer clear—this hospital might even be a scam.)
这是一个展示北京物价的网页。 (你可能会注意到,这个网页非常简陋,这正是中国网站的一个特点。政府机关或国企的网站通常都做得很差劲,但数据可靠。比如,医院网站如果看起来极其陈旧,标题都是“我院职工学习***讲话”或“我院第三批医疗队2024年出征非洲”之类,就说明这家医院技术过硬、可信。但要是遇到那种各种花里胡哨的特效页面,就要当心,这种医院可能是骗局。)
我来查一下今天的价格。我会帮你换算——不过说实话,平时这种工作我都直接交给Deepseek处理,毕竟我懒得手动计算。 需要注意的是,我这里采用的是最贵超市的售价。如果是我自己买菜的话,肯定会去农贸市场,那里的价格能便宜很多——有时候甚至能砍下一半还不止。
Chinese Cabbage: 0.22 USD/kg Potato: 0.58 USD/kg Tomato: 1.14 USD/kg Cucumber: 0.84 USD/kg Onion: 0.52 USD/kg Carrot: 0.62 USD/kg Round Eggplant: 1.00 USD/kg Green Beans: 1.66 USD/kg Cabbage: 0.60 USD/kg Celery: 0.54 USD/kg White Radish: 0.36 USD/kg Radish: 0.66 USD/kg Green Pepper: 0.94 USD/kg Winter Melon: 0.64 USD/kg Fresh Beef: 10.38 USD/kg Fresh Lamb: 11.66 USD/kg Whole Chicken: 3.70 USD/kg Eggs: 1.40 USD/kg Duck: 3.06 USD/kg Ribbon Fish: 5.92 USD/kg Grass Carp: 3.30 USD/kg Lean Pork: 4.56 USD/kg
– 大白菜:0.22美元/公斤 – 土豆:0.58美元/公斤 – 西红柿:1.14美元/公斤 – 黄瓜:0.84美元/公斤 – 洋葱:0.52美元/公斤 – 胡萝卜:0.62美元/公斤 – 圆茄子:1.00美元/公斤 – 四季豆:1.66美元/公斤 – 卷心菜:0.60美元/公斤 – 芹菜:0.54美元/公斤 – 白萝卜:0.36美元/公斤 – 萝卜:0.66美元/公斤 – 青椒:0.94美元/公斤 – 冬瓜:0.64美元/公斤 – 鲜牛肉:10.38美元/公斤 – 鲜羊肉:11.66美元/公斤 – 整鸡:3.70美元/公斤 – 鸡蛋:1.40美元/公斤 – 鸭肉:3.06美元/公斤 – 带鱼:5.92美元/公斤 – 草鱼:3.30美元/公斤 – 瘦猪肉:4.56美元/公斤
Industrial products are the cheapest. Sometimes the prices are so low that even I find it hard to believe. For someone like me, who’s lived through tough times, it can feel strange to adjust to this. For example, when I buy tea, the seller usually throws in four cups and a stainless steel teapot for free. But I already have so many—I can’t keep piling them up, so I end up throwing them away. It feels like such a waste.
工业品更便宜,有时低得令人难以置信。 对于经历过艰苦岁月的人而言,适应这种价格差异会感到很奇怪。 比如,我买茶时,卖家常常额外送四个茶杯和一个不锈钢茶壶。 但我已经有太多此类物件了,堆在家里根本放不下,只能扔掉,感觉太浪费了。
Overall, I think China’s GDP might not be that high, but the cost of daily life isn’t expensive either. So, I feel like life here is probably better than in a lot of places with a nominally higher per capita GDP.
总体而言,我认为中国的GDP名义上可能不算最高,但日常生活成本也不高。所以,我觉得中国人的生活很可能比那些人均GDP更高的地方要好。
Education and healthcare are decent too. If you’re really poor, the government has your back. Thanks to medical insurance, seeing a doctor isn’t a big deal either.
教育和医疗也相当不错。如果你真的很穷,政府会提供保障。多亏医保,看病也不是什么大问题。
The biggest hassle in China is housing, especially in big cities where prices are insanely high.
在中国,最大的问题是住房,尤其在大城市房价高得离谱。
But if you don’t buy and just rent, there’s really no pressure at all.
但如果不买房只租房,就几乎没有经济压力。
Fz Lee Good question! I thought you had never been to China, or that you only visited the developed cities here and always stayed in expensive hotels that ordinary Chinese can’t afford. You might notice that, as a foreigner, you can’t stay in budget hotels; those that do accept foreigners generally have a higher standard if you look closely.
问得好!我还以为你从没来过中国,或者只去过这里的发达城市,而且总是住在普通中国人根本负担不起的高档酒店。你可能注意到了,作为外国人,你没法住廉价旅馆——仔细看的话,那些真正接待外国人的廉价旅馆,通常标准也会更高一些。
The Chinese government is keen to show the world that China is a modern, law-governed state.
中国政府热衷向世界展示中国是一个现代化、法治化的国家。
Foreigners tend to believe this image because they actually enjoy certain privileges here. It’s like when a bike is stolen: if a foreigner calls the police, officers will check the CCTV and help recover the bike; but when a local calls, they often do nothing.
外国人往往相信这种形象,因为他们在中国确实享有某些特权。就像自行车被盗:外国人报警时,警察会调取监控帮忙找回;但当地人报警,往往得不到任何回应。 If you want to learn more about this situation in China, search on Baidu for “上海风控,外国人吃伟哥,阴茎持续充血,专家住址会诊.” This refers to an incident during COVID-19 when many people were locked down at home for a long time—some even ran out of food—yet hospitals spared no effort to treat a single foreign patient’s prolonged erection. 如果你想深入了解中国的此类情况,可以在百度搜索“上海风控,外国人吃伟哥,阴茎持续充血,专家住址会诊”。这指的是疫情期间,许多人被长期封控在家,甚至有些人断粮,但医院却不遗余力地救治了一名外国患者的持续勃起。
So it’s easy to conclude that as a foreigner you can live comfortably and peacefully in China. But that is not the whole truth. Half of Chinese people earn less than 1,000 yuan (about 139 USD) per month.
于是很容易得出结论:作为外国人在中国可以过得舒适安逸。但那并非全部事实:中国有一半的人月收入不足1000元(约139美元)。
Richard Kenneth Eng In this context, per capita GDP is much less important than per capita net worth, which in the case of China is quite high at $75,000. The Chinese people live very well.
在这种情况下,人均GDP的重要性远不如人均净资产——中国的人均净资产高达7.5万美元,这个数字相当可观。中国人民的生活水平其实非常高。
Ironically, even though America’s per capita net worth is much, much higher than China’s, the American people do not live well. Most Americans live paycheck to paycheck; they have great difficulty making ends meet and they have practically no savings.
具有讽刺意味的是,尽管美国人均净资产远高于中国,但美国人并不富裕。大多数美国人拿到工资就花光,难以维持收支平衡,几乎没有积蓄。
Many, many Americans have to work multiple jobs just to keep their head above water. Many of them are in hock up to their eyeballs. The problem, of course, is that most of America’s wealth is concentrated in the top 10%, or even the top 1%. Yes, it’s that bad!
很多美国人不得不做多份工作才能维持生计,许多人都背负着巨额债务。 问题在于,美国的大部分财富集中在最富有的10%,甚至1%人手中。没错,情况就是这么糟。
May Lewis The cost of living in China is distributed differently than in any other country.
中国的生活成本与其他任何国家都大不相同。
China uses industrial clusters to mass-produce almost all kinds of industrial products at the lowest cost in the world. The prices in the world’s factory are crazy cheap.
中国通过产业集群,以世界最低成本大规模生产几乎所有工业品。这个“世界工厂”的物价低得离谱。
Two examples: some manufacturers make no money after combining the selling price and costs, and they only make advertising fees by stuffing advertising leaflets into your express packages. Some manufacturers use small packages to fill the gaps between other large packages instead of the original shock-absorbing foam, so the express fee you receive for the small package that has been transported thousands of miles is under 10 cents.
举两个例子:一些厂商的售价加成本都不赚钱,他们靠在快递包裹里放广告单赚广告费;还有的厂商用小包裹填充其它大包裹的空隙,代替原有的缓冲材料,因此运送千里的小包裹快递费不到0.1美元。
As a result, the retail price of an all-metal compass like the one in the picture, including the box, pencil lead, and express delivery, is 27 cents.
因此,一套全金属圆规(含盒子、铅芯和快递)零售价仅0.27美元。
一款带私人定制图片的软硅胶手机壳(含运费)只要0.36美元。商家收到你提供的照片后,3天内即可印制并送达。
这样的产品质量虽谈不上顶级,但日常使用绰绰有余。就连惯于廉价商品的中国人也觉得价格离谱。在美国或澳大利亚,同款产品售价要高出20倍以上。
Other prices: Public transportation is cheap, gasoline is expensive. Rent and property prices in big cities are very expensive, among the most expensive in the world. High-end electronics including iPhones and Sony cameras are expensive. Chicken and vegetables are cheap, but beef and milk are expensive. Public education is cheap, but after-school tutoring is expensive. Medical services are cheaper, and some medicines are more expensive. In short, as long as you don't buy an apartment in Beijing or Shanghai, the cost of living is relatively low. It may be related to PPP or exchange rate, but it is not as exaggerated as the industrial product prices mentioned above.
其他物价:公共交通便宜,汽油偏贵。大城市的租金和房价极高,跻身世界前列。高端电子产品如iPhone和索尼相机也很贵。鸡肉和蔬菜便宜,但牛肉和牛奶贵。公立教育成本低,但课外辅导费用高。医疗服务较便宜,但部分药品贵。总之,只要不在北京或上海买房,生活成本相对较低。这或许与购买力平价或汇率有关,但都没有上述工业品价格离谱。
In general, the living standards of Chinese people are close to but lower than those of Japan, South Korea, Spain, and Italy. Per capita GDP obviously underestimates the living conditions of Chinese people.
总体来看,中国人的生活水平接近但略低于日本、韩国、西班牙和意大利。人均GDP显然低估了中国人的真实生活水平。