如果将制造业转移回美国会导致商品价格大幅上涨,那么当所有商品都在美国制造时,人们如何能买的起这些商品呢?
If moving manufacturing back to America would drive the price of goods significantly up, then how could people afford goods back when everything was made in America?
译文简介
将制造业转移回美国会导致商品价格大幅上涨,当所有商品都在美国制造时,美国人民是否有足够的薪水支付这些回流工厂生产的高价商品。
正文翻译
Westley D Willis
That is a FANTASTIC question. one people should be thinking about in my opinion.
So, lets start out here.They DIDN’T.
这是一个非常棒的问题,我认为是人们应该思考的问题。那么,我们从这里开始吧。我们的前辈并没有像我们现在这样能负担得起所有东西。
Shocking I know, but the simple fact is true. They didn’t. They DIDN’T just afford the things we can today. Now, i am nearly 50, and i recall we had a single TV in our home for a long time, and it was a big deal when I found a cast off one and got it working and thusly had a second TV in the house.
我知道这听起来很震惊,但事实就是如此:他们没有。他们不像我们现在能买这么多东西。我快50岁了,我记得我们家很久以前只有一台电视,后来我找到一台别人不要的电视,修好之后家里才有了第二台电视,那可是一件大事。
I remember friends whose family didn’t have a dryer in their house, and hung their clothes to dry, even in winter, though usually in the basement during the winter, or out on the lines on clear days.
我还记得有些朋友家里没有干衣机,他们就在屋外晾衣服,即使在冬天也一样,通常是在地下室里或者晴天时挂在院子里。
Not every family owned 2 cars. Houses were smaller. Things were less disposable, so while they costed us more, they lasted much longer.
不是每家人都有两辆车。房子更小,物品也不像现在这么“一次性”,虽然当时的东西更贵,但它们耐用得多。
As we started outsourcing manufacturing, it brought costs down. The MAIN facet of this, was the labor, and safety standards. See, in the USA, we have a minimum wage. While it isn’t livable anymore, it is much higher than in other countries. Additionally, we have OSHA, and other safety watch groups, and building and municipal codes that protect our people, our workers, and our environment.
当我们开始将制造业外包时,制造成本下降了。其中最主要的因素是劳动力和安全标准。在美国,我们有最低工资制度。虽然现在这个工资已经不够维持生活了,但它比其他国家要高很多。此外,我们还有OSHA(职业安全与健康管理局)等安全监管机构,以及建筑和市政法规,这些都保护着我们的人民、工人和环境。
Sending those manufacturing jobs offshore means workers who get paid pennies on the dollar compared to domestic. Factories that can be built, and managed cheaper as they don’t have those pesky restrictions on making it safe for the workers, or making sure they don’t just dump toxic chemicals into rivers and such.
把制造业岗位转移到国外意味着工人的工资只占美国整体工资的一小部分。工厂可以以更低的成本建设和管理,因为它们不需要那些令人讨厌的规定来保障工人安全,也不需要确保不会把有毒化学物质直接排进河流里。
Those lowered manufacturing costs, brought the cost of goods down dramatically, and heavily fueled the boom of consumerism seen in the 80’s, and progressing to today. We have moved to a culture of things. I’m not saying it is good or bad, but when companies moved manufacturing offshore, it brought the price of stuff down, and as such, we bought stuff we previously wouldn’t.
这些降低的制造成本大幅降低了商品价格,极大地推动了20世纪80年代以来的消费主义热潮。我们进入了一个以“物”为中心的文化。我不是说这是好还是坏,但当公司将制造业转移到海外后,商品价格下降了,于是我们开始购买以前不会买的商品。
Bringing manufacturing back to the US, would mean those prices go back up, dramatically. as such, we would start cutting back on the things we NEED versus the ones we WANT.
如果将制造业带回美国,意味着商品价格会大幅上涨。因此,我们将不得不重新区分什么是“真正需要”的东西,什么只是内心“想要”的东西。
If moving manufacturing back to America would drive the price of goods significantly up, then how could people afford goods back when everything was made in America?
回到开始问题: 如果将制造业带回美国会导致商品价格大幅上涨,那么为什么在过去所有东西都在美国制造的时候,人们却能买得起这些商品?(因为过去的人们在购物时需要克制消费欲望,需要精挑细选尽可能购买实用品和耐用品)
That is a FANTASTIC question. one people should be thinking about in my opinion.
So, lets start out here.They DIDN’T.
这是一个非常棒的问题,我认为是人们应该思考的问题。那么,我们从这里开始吧。我们的前辈并没有像我们现在这样能负担得起所有东西。
Shocking I know, but the simple fact is true. They didn’t. They DIDN’T just afford the things we can today. Now, i am nearly 50, and i recall we had a single TV in our home for a long time, and it was a big deal when I found a cast off one and got it working and thusly had a second TV in the house.
我知道这听起来很震惊,但事实就是如此:他们没有。他们不像我们现在能买这么多东西。我快50岁了,我记得我们家很久以前只有一台电视,后来我找到一台别人不要的电视,修好之后家里才有了第二台电视,那可是一件大事。
I remember friends whose family didn’t have a dryer in their house, and hung their clothes to dry, even in winter, though usually in the basement during the winter, or out on the lines on clear days.
我还记得有些朋友家里没有干衣机,他们就在屋外晾衣服,即使在冬天也一样,通常是在地下室里或者晴天时挂在院子里。
Not every family owned 2 cars. Houses were smaller. Things were less disposable, so while they costed us more, they lasted much longer.
不是每家人都有两辆车。房子更小,物品也不像现在这么“一次性”,虽然当时的东西更贵,但它们耐用得多。
As we started outsourcing manufacturing, it brought costs down. The MAIN facet of this, was the labor, and safety standards. See, in the USA, we have a minimum wage. While it isn’t livable anymore, it is much higher than in other countries. Additionally, we have OSHA, and other safety watch groups, and building and municipal codes that protect our people, our workers, and our environment.
当我们开始将制造业外包时,制造成本下降了。其中最主要的因素是劳动力和安全标准。在美国,我们有最低工资制度。虽然现在这个工资已经不够维持生活了,但它比其他国家要高很多。此外,我们还有OSHA(职业安全与健康管理局)等安全监管机构,以及建筑和市政法规,这些都保护着我们的人民、工人和环境。
Sending those manufacturing jobs offshore means workers who get paid pennies on the dollar compared to domestic. Factories that can be built, and managed cheaper as they don’t have those pesky restrictions on making it safe for the workers, or making sure they don’t just dump toxic chemicals into rivers and such.
把制造业岗位转移到国外意味着工人的工资只占美国整体工资的一小部分。工厂可以以更低的成本建设和管理,因为它们不需要那些令人讨厌的规定来保障工人安全,也不需要确保不会把有毒化学物质直接排进河流里。
Those lowered manufacturing costs, brought the cost of goods down dramatically, and heavily fueled the boom of consumerism seen in the 80’s, and progressing to today. We have moved to a culture of things. I’m not saying it is good or bad, but when companies moved manufacturing offshore, it brought the price of stuff down, and as such, we bought stuff we previously wouldn’t.
这些降低的制造成本大幅降低了商品价格,极大地推动了20世纪80年代以来的消费主义热潮。我们进入了一个以“物”为中心的文化。我不是说这是好还是坏,但当公司将制造业转移到海外后,商品价格下降了,于是我们开始购买以前不会买的商品。
Bringing manufacturing back to the US, would mean those prices go back up, dramatically. as such, we would start cutting back on the things we NEED versus the ones we WANT.
如果将制造业带回美国,意味着商品价格会大幅上涨。因此,我们将不得不重新区分什么是“真正需要”的东西,什么只是内心“想要”的东西。
If moving manufacturing back to America would drive the price of goods significantly up, then how could people afford goods back when everything was made in America?
回到开始问题: 如果将制造业带回美国会导致商品价格大幅上涨,那么为什么在过去所有东西都在美国制造的时候,人们却能买得起这些商品?(因为过去的人们在购物时需要克制消费欲望,需要精挑细选尽可能购买实用品和耐用品)
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I’m amazed at the level of ignorance and lack of simple logic in this question.
Ask yourself, what is missing today in American industry that was there back in the 50s and 60s?
我对这个问题中所表现出的无知和缺乏基本逻辑感到震惊。你可以问问自己:如今美国工业缺少的是什么?而这些东西在上世纪50到60年代是否存在?
Give up? Think factories! Manufacturing. The basic ingredient of your premise. Things were cheaper because we had the capacity right here, in a post-WWII era that had tons of factories and a multitude of opportunities. And workers were paid a living wage so essentials were affordable and luxury items were not priced through the roof.
放弃?答案是——工厂!制造业。这就是你观点中的基本要素。过去东西便宜是因为我们在二战后的美国拥有强大的生产能力,全国到处都是工厂,机会众多。而且工人们得到的是足以养家糊口的工资,所以生活必需品是负担得起的,奢侈品也没有被标上离谱的价格。
Forward 25 years and we have Reagan administration which clears the way for manufacturing to move overseas and practically overnight factories all over the country move production overseas, close factories and kill jobs and the middle class starts a slow and steady descent into poverty. Meanwhile, costs of goods and services goes up in a global market and those costs get passed on to consumers.
再往前走25年,到了里根政府时期,他为制造业向海外转移打开了大门。一夜之间,全国各地的工厂纷纷将生产搬到海外,关闭本地工厂,裁员,中产阶级从此开始了缓慢而稳定的衰退。与此同时,在全球市场中,商品和服务的成本上升,并且这些成本最终转嫁给了消费者。
So what would it take to get manufacturing back to the US. Trillions of dollars. It means buying property, building new or refurbishing existing plants. Building or updating infrastructure to support that new plant. Purchasing new equipment and training workers to use it. Finding and securing resources, parts and supplies and paying to have them shipped here. Add to that, it would take 5 or more years to get all that done. And all that comes out of private pockets; even with government subsidies, it’s still a hugely expensive proposition. In a country that has conditioned itself on short term profit above all else, spending that kind of money and time is never going to happen.
那么要把制造业重新带回美国需要什么?数万亿美元的资金。这意味着要购买土地、新建或翻新现有工厂、建设或升级支持该工厂的基础设施、购买新设备并培训工人使用它、寻找并确保原材料、零部件和供应品的来源,并支付运输费用。再加上,完成这一切至少需要五年以上的时间。而所有这些资金都要来自私人资本;即使有政府补贴,这也是一项极其昂贵的工程。在一个已经习惯了短期利润至上的国家,花这么多钱和时间是不可能实现的事情。
EDIT 4/5: Think manufacturing is coming back to America? The recent tariffs imposed by trump just ERASED $9 TRILLION dollars in wealth. Where was that money coming from? The rich and corporations who would have been the backers for any repatriation of manufacturing. Even if they wanted to, they don’t have that money now.
更新: 您觉得制造业正在回归美国吗?特朗普最近征收的关税刚刚抹去了9万亿美元的财富。这笔钱原本是从哪里来的?来自于那些本应资助制造业回流的富人和大公司。即使他们愿意投资,现在他们也没有这笔钱了。
EDIT 4/14: I think it's time to close this discussion down. Since it was featured in a particular group, the upvotes and comments have grown considerably. I have tried to respond to many of them, whether they agreed with me or not, but it is taking too much of my time and effort. Unfortunately,the comments have become either repetitive; anecdotal; immaterial to the topic; or, in typical Quora fashion, just plain insulting, filled with not just derogatory remarks but hateful personal attacks. I particularly enjoyed the one from the supposed economics instructor, who not just disagreed with my opinion, but felt it necessary to include in his typo ridden screed religious invectives and homophobic slurs. There were only two comments I dexed, the above being one of them, and I had to block three individuals who were particularly hateful. No doubt there will be those who think this cowardly and a vindication of their particular philosophy or delusion. I don’t care. Fuck off.
更新: 我觉得是时候结束这场讨论了。自从这篇回答被某个小组推荐后,点赞和评论数量显著增加。我尽可能的回应了许多评论,无论是同意我的观点还是反对我的观点,但这耗费了我太多时间和精力。不幸的是,评论变得越来越重复、主观、与主题无关,或者像典型的Quora风格一样,充满了侮辱性的语言,甚至有人进行人身攻击和仇恨言论。特别让我印象深刻的是一个自称经济学讲师的人,他在回复中不仅不同意我的观点,还特意加入宗教攻击和恐同言论。这两条评论是我唯一删除的,我也屏蔽了三个特别具有攻击性的人。无疑会有人认为这是我懦弱的表现,或者证明他们的某种哲学观或幻想是对的。我不在乎,你们去死吧。
It has been an interesting discussion and many have made some very interesting and salient points some of which I touched upon in further comments. You might be interested in reading some of the other comments and not just my answer. Even some of the more absurd comments which I left up are entertaining.
So thanks again and best to all, “even the haters and losers” to quote our ignominious leader.
这是一场有趣的讨论,很多人提出了非常有趣和中肯的观点,有些我在后续评论中也有提到。也许你会有兴趣阅读其他评论,而不仅仅是我的回答。甚至一些我认为荒谬的评论也很有意思。借用我们那位无耻领导的话,再次感谢大家,祝所有人好运,包括那些“喷子和失败者”。
二、Susan Lippy
Well take a trip back in time. Your home, no A/C. No one had it. Your family 1 car. You were sharing that puppy. Your clothes; hand me downs. Ever wonder why closets were so small? Because you didn't own enough stuff to fill giant walk in closets. You owned 1 TV if lucky if not one radio. Eating out was a luxury for big events not something done frequently. All those fancy kids sports teems that cost hundreds, yeah no you played on the street. With the neighborhood kids. A good day was when you saved up enough chore money to ride over to the five and dime and buy some candy. Things were saved, everything. Ziplock bags got washed, paper grocery sacks became book covers, wonder bags were used to keep your feet dry inside your boots. Things got fixed at home. Not replaced. The roof needs reshingled? Dad and buddies did it. Car needs fixed? Same. My grandpa would drive from New Philadelphia to Columbus just to help Dad fix a car. In the 70’s when moms went to work it was to increase standard of living. You have a standard of living that didn't exist before the 70’s. A/C and central heat! Indoor restrooms! More than 1! Walk in closets and multiple car households. Magic computers you carry in your pocket. Movies on demand and home theaters. You cannot compare life now to then. It's apples to oranges.
不如来一次时光旅行吧:你家没有空调。其他人也没有。你家只有一辆车,还要全家人共用。你的衣服是哥哥姐姐穿剩下的。你有没有想过为什么过去的衣柜那么小?因为你根本没那么多衣服填满一个步入式大衣柜。如果你家里有一台电视机就算幸运了,普通家庭就只有一台收音机。外出吃饭是一种奢侈,只有重大场合才会去,而且不是经常的事。那些动辄花费数百美元的孩子运动队?不存在的。你只是在街上和邻居的孩子一起玩。快乐的一天是你攒够做家务赚的钱,骑车去五毛店买点糖果。
那时候人们把什么东西都留下来使用。Ziplock袋洗了又用,纸袋用来包书,Wonder面包袋用来防水靴。东西坏了就自己修,而不是换新的。屋顶需要换瓦片?爸爸和朋友们一起搞定。汽车坏了?同样的方法。70年代我爷爷会从New Philadelphia开车到Columbus,只为帮我爸修车。
到了70年代,妈妈们开始工作是为了提高生活水平。你现在的生活水平在70年代之前是不存在的。比如空调和中央空调、多个室内卫生间、步入式衣柜、多辆车的家庭、可以随身携带的智能电脑、随时观看的电影和家庭影院。你不能把现在的生活和过去相比。那是苹果和橙子的区别。
三、Jay Dee
One of my first summer jobs at 18 was in a factory. I was paid $14/hour in 1972. Accounting for ONLY inflation and changes in dollar value, $14 in 1972 should equal about $110 today. How many US factory workers in 2025 are being paid $110/hr? (EDIT: a commenter pointed out to me that my experience may not be typical. AI research says that the average hourly wage of all blue collar workers, which is everybody who was not a white collar salaried worker, was only $4/hr. in 1970. Even if we accept that number, it should equate to $31/hr. today. That's still a lot more than such workers are actually paid, today)
我18岁时的第一个暑期工作是在一家工厂。1972年,我每小时挣14美元。仅考虑通货膨胀和货币价值的变化,1972年的14美元相当于今天的约110美元。今天有多少美国工厂工人每小时能挣到110美元?(编辑:有读者指出我的经历可能并不典型。AI研究显示,1970年蓝领工人的平均时薪仅为4美元。即使接受这个数字,按通胀计算,今天也应该等于31美元。而这仍然远高于今天工人的实际收入)
The average unskilled factory worker in the US today is paid $17/hr.
In 1975, my dad's salary*, as a white collar middle manager, was $30,000 *(I meant to say his net, take home pay, after deductions). That would be equal to $180,000 today.
今天美国普通非技术工厂工人的时薪是17美元。1975年,我父亲作为一名白领中层管理人员的薪水是3万美元(我原意是指税后净收入)。按通胀计算,这相当于今天的18万美元。
And in the late 1940s the highest tax bracket on multimillionaires was 91%
而在1940年代末,对百万富翁的最高税率是91%。
四、Steven Haddock
In fact, the United States still does a lot of manufacturing.
事实上,美国仍然进行大量制造业生产。
The U.S. does more manufacturing than Japan, German, South Korea, India and Mexico combined.
美国的制造业产出比日本、德国、韩国、印度和墨西哥加起来还要多。
The problem is that more U.S. manufacturing does not mean more U.S. manufacturing JOBS. Manufacturing employment in the United States keeps going down while manufacturing output goes up.
但问题在于,“更多的制造业”并不等于“更多的制造业工作岗位”。美国的制造业就业人数持续下降,而制造业产出却在上升。
And it’s not “foreigners”, it’s “automation”. Most of the work that used to be done by human beings is now done by machines. Just as well because often that work is repetitive, dangerous, or has long term health effects. U.S. workers remain incredibly productive compared to those in other countries.
造成这种情况的原因不是“外国人”,而是“自动化”。过去由人类完成的工作,现在大多由机器完成。这其实是一件好事,因为这些工作通常重复性强、危险性高,或者对健康有长期影响。与其它国家相比,美国工人依然非常高效。
Not only that, U.S. workers work longer hours than the countries with higher productivity. Greeks, South Koreans and Mexicans all work longer hours than Americans, but are far, far less productive.
不仅如此,美国工人的工作时间也比许多生产力更高的国家更长。希腊人、韩国人和墨西哥人比美国人工作的时间更长,但他们的生产力却低得多。
And this is a good thing. One of the reasons Singapore is doing so well is that the government has traded “full employment” for “well paying jobs”.
这其实是一件好事。新加坡之所以发展得这么好,是因为政府用“充分就业”换来了“高薪岗位”。
However, Singapore also has high taxes and high government spending so if you’re a citizen you probably have a place to live and enough food to eat. That’s not the case in the United States - excess value from labour pretty much goes to capitalists and not to people who can’t find a job in a world where work is not available unless you have a lot of skills. By many measures, the United States has “full employment” and the only unemployed people are people lacking skills to do the jobs available. Getting those skills is too expensive as the usual requirement is that you have to pay to acquire those skills.
然而,新加坡也有高额税收和政府支出,所以如果你是新加坡公民,你很可能有房住、有饭吃。但美国的情况并非如此——劳动创造的剩余价值几乎全部流向了资本家,而不是那些在这个工作机会稀缺的世界里找不到工作的人。从很多标准来看,美国已经实现了“充分就业”,唯一失业的是那些缺乏技能去从事现有岗位的人。而获取这些技能的成本又太高,因为你必须自己花钱去学习这些技能。
So maybe Apple could hire some smart people and build a factory where one American guy is doing the same work as ten Chinese guys while machines do the rest of the work. That could be doable (but expensive and with an uncertain outcome) but it’s what made America great.
所以也许苹果可以雇一些聪明人,在一个工厂里让一个美国人完成相当于十个中国工人做的工作,其余的都由机器完成。这虽然可行(但昂贵且结果不确定),但正是这种模式让美国变得强大。
The cotton gin (short for “engine”) made separating cotton fiber from seeds easier so one person (okay one slave) could separate dozens of pounds of fiber with a machine every day rather than the one pound that was possible without it. However, it wasn’t long before bigger gins were made that were run by water power, and then steam power.
就像棉花脱籽机(“发动机”的缩写)一样,它让一个人(好吧,当时是一个奴隶)每天能用机器分离出几十磅棉纤维,而不是没有使用机器时的只能分离出一磅。很快,更大的脱籽机被制造出来,并用水力驱动,后来改用蒸汽动力。
And, yes, they’re still in use. No people mind you, you will notice the total absence of workers in this photo but you’re still getting a lot of cotton. Hell, I bet you could do without people entirely!
而且,它们今天仍在使用。请注意,照片中完全没有工人,但棉花依然在大量产出。天啊,我打赌甚至完全可以不需要人!
So there’s two things that you could do with this excess value:
那么,我们可以如何处理这些额外的财富呢?
Be kind to people and make sure they’re housed, fed, clothed, educated and treated for disease or;
Buy more yachts.
Oh, and yes, it’s not a good idea to be around these machines when they’re working.
1. 善待人民,确保他们有住房、食物、衣物、教育和医疗保障;
2. 或者买更多游艇。
哦,顺便说一句,当这些机器运转的时候,你最好不要靠得太近。
五、Michael Cheng
Back in ye olden days before 1975, most manual labor manufacturing was done in America, but workers back then couldn’t actually afford what they made.
在1975年以前那个“老古董时代”,大多数的手工制造业都在美国进行,但当时的工人实际上买不起他们制造的产品。
For the workers who worked on the manufacturing lines for fancy jets like the Boeing 747, most couldn’t afford regular or any flights on them. For the workers who built televisions, they struggled to afford a crappy model, if at all. Also, there simply weren’t as many things available to buy.
比如那些参与制造波音747等豪华客机的工人,大多数人连坐一次飞机都负担不起。那些制造电视机的工人,甚至连一台破旧型号的电视都难以负担。此外,当时可供购买的商品种类也很少。
It’s hard to imagine, but 50 years ago, a low resolution black and white television cost around $350, about the same as a basic 50 inch LED television with 4K resolution today. Meanwhile, the median individual wage has gone up from $5K to around $40K in that time. So, a television has gone down from just under 1 month of income to 2 days of income while becoming far superior.
很难想象,但在50年前,一台低分辨率的黑白电视机价格约为350美元,差不多相当于今天一台基本款50英寸4K LED电视的价格。同时期,美国人的平均个人收入从5,000美元增长到约40,000美元。也就是说,电视的价格从接近一个月的工资,降到了仅两天的工资,而性能却远远优于从前。
That vast improvement in purchasing power has been part of the trade-off in adopting the much maligned free-trade of neoliberalism. While we lost those adequately paid manufacturing jobs, we improved our overall living standards. So, instead of literally pounding away at dangerous heavy machinery, we’ve become a country of highly paid office workers and lowly paid service workers. A few workers were obviously the sorry losers out of the bargain.
这种购买力的巨大提升,是我们接受新自由主义所倡导的自由贸易的代价之一。虽然我们失去了大量待遇不错的制造业岗位,但整体生活水平得到了显著提高。于是我们从一个以重工业为主的国家,变成了一个由高薪办公室职员和低薪服务人员构成的社会。当然,也有一些人在这场交易中成了输家。
There is NO WAY to bring back heavy manufacturing to America without a return to those lower living standards of the 1970s. Even if we put up ridiculous tariff barriers for all imported goods, there are vast numbers of goods that simply cannot be made in America due to lack of raw materials or labor. For those goods from the 1970s, we could make them in America again, and they would be ridiculously expensive.
如果不回到1970年代较低的生活水平,就不可能把重工业带回美国。即使我们对所有进口商品设置极端的关税壁垒,也有大量商品由于原材料或劳动力的限制根本无法在美国生产。对于那些上世纪70年代能在美国生产的商品,如果现在再生产,价格将极其昂贵。
Manufacturers would have to pay workers far more to make anything in America but not enough for the workers to ever afford their own products. Simply, manufacturers would seek profit at the far end of the supply-demand curve where a few rich people could afford the goods, just like in those ye olden days. We would return to the days of vacuum and appliance repair stores where average people kept patching together old things as they couldn’t afford new ones.
制造商必须支付给工人远高于其他国家的工资来在美国制造产品,但这点工资仍不足以让工人买得起自己制造的产品。简而言之,制造商会在供需曲线的高端寻求利润,只有少数富人才能负担得起这些商品,就像“老古董时代”一样。我们将回到那个需要维修收音机和家电的年代,普通人只能不断修补旧东西,因为他们买不起新的。
We are able to enjoy the huge benefits of endless affordable consumer goods due to global trade with dirt poor countries. We’re subjecting them to the hard labor while we merely have to flex our Navy and print away our reserve currency.
我们之所以能够享受无穷无尽的廉价消费品,是因为我们与世界上最贫困国家之间的全球贸易。我们把这些艰苦的工作交给了他们,而我们只需依靠海军力量和印钞权就能维持这种优势。
Huge numbers of our imported goods come from China where the median income is less than 1/7th that of America’s. Their largest currency, the 100 RMB, has a value of $13.50 in America but has the buying power of $100 in China. This is after a 45 year economic miracle to bring the most humans out of poverty in history. We get to buy goods at less than 1/7th our cost, mark it up a for a healthy profit margin and still sell it for less than 1/3rd of our on-shore production cost.
我们大量进口来自中国的商品来,而中国的平均收入不到美国的七分之一。在中国最大面值的纸币是100元人民币,约合13.5美元,但它在中国的购买力相当于100美元。这是经过45年的经济奇迹之后的结果,也是历史上最多人口摆脱贫困的成就。我们能以不到本国成本七分之一的价格购买这些商品,然后加价出售,利润可观,但仍低于在我们国内生产所需成本的三分之一。
Why bother working hard to compete with that? Why not make more money with higher value work and buy cheap stuff? It’s like a form of imperialism except China willingly trades with us, for now.
既然如此,我们为什么要费劲地与这种模式竞争?为什么不从事更高价值的工作,然后购买便宜的商品?这简直是一种帝国主义,只不过中国是自愿与我们贸易的——至少目前是这样。
Indeed, for a taste of what life would be like if we brought back all manufacturing to America, we just have to look at housing and healthcare. Both are industries that have been very minimally outsourced and both are infamous for being expensive, to the point that they’re always the whipping boys for the high costs of living in America.
确实,如果我们想体验一下把所有制造业都带回美国的生活是什么样,我们只需要看看住房和医疗行业就知道了。这两个产业几乎没有怎么外包,而它们也因此出了名的昂贵,甚至经常成为美国人生活成本高昂的主要原因。
Now, imagine if EVERYTHING was that expensive. Sure, some people would find higher pay and easily keep up with the costs without complaint, but many Americans, possibly hundreds of millions, would struggle mightily.
现在,想象一下如果一切商品都像房子和医疗一样昂贵会怎样?当然,有些人收入更高,能轻松应对这些开销,不会抱怨。但对数以亿计的美国人来说,这将是极大的困难。
I know the current right wing party in full control of our government rails against socialism, but making so many suffer so aggressively to benefit the few is the height of late stage capitalism, which is hardly the America we want for our children.
我知道目前全面掌控美国政府的右翼政党强烈反对社会主义,但让这么多人承受如此巨大的痛苦只为少数人谋利,这就是晚期资本主义的极致表现,这显然不是我们所希望的留给美国下一代的做法。
六、Joel Henry Hinrichs
That flashy new 1956 Chevy was cheap to fix and cheap to build. It was an oil burner with parts starting to fall off at 100,000 miles. Houses were cheap to build and if you compared your dwelling to one built 75 years ago you would notice many “enhancements.”
那辆闪亮的新1956款雪佛兰修起来便宜、造起来也便宜。它烧油,零部件在行驶10万公里后就开始掉落。那时候的房子建造成本也很低,如果你把自己现在的房子跟75年前的相比,你会发现许多“升级之处”。
Computers shred the value-add of most of us. Reagan didn’t invent them, but he was there when they had pushed their way into daily life. “High per-employee production” means lots of automation and no real craftsmen, other than the ones up to speed on computer controlled tools.
计算机正在摧毁我们大多数人的价值贡献。里根没发明计算机,但他执政期间计算机开始进入日常生活。“人均高产能”意味着高度自动化,几乎没有真正的工匠,除了那些熟练掌握数控工具的人。
In 1950 a carpenter would take a door blank, remove the old door, use a chisel, expertly, to make a place for the old hinges to fit flush into the new door, then hang the new door. Manual skill was valued. Today Jack Homeowner has no chisel, and no trouble.
在1950年,木匠拿到一块门板,会拆除旧门,熟练地用凿子在新门上刻出适合旧铰链嵌入的位置,然后安装新门。那时候手工技艺是有价值的。而现在,普通家庭用户既没有凿子,也不需要它们。
Bottom line, we accepted levels of quality and durability, 75 years ago, which would draw scorn today. Rote, boring work such as sewing pieces of cloth together to make something you wear, and put on a hanger in your closet, finds eager hands in second-world places. Those hands use to live in China, but today China farms those jobs out to Cambodia and VietNam.
归根结底,75年前我们接受的质量和耐用性水平,在今天看来简直会被嘲笑。诸如缝纫布料这样的重复性、枯燥性工作,如今在“第二世界”国家能找到愿意做的工人。这些工人曾经在中国,但现在中国把这些工作外包给了柬埔寨和越南。
Capische? Bringing those factories back here would
明白了吗?把这些工厂搬回美国,
take multiple years to design, plan, and build
thus engaging many millions of dollars per factory
and, when staffed by 100 people being paid U S wages,
would produce goods that cost significantly more than those made partly by hand in impoverished countries.
需要多年的设计、规划和建设,
每个工厂都需要投入数百万美元的资金,
当工厂雇佣100名领取美国工资的员工时,所生产出来的商品成本将远高于那些由贫困地区工人手工部分制作的商品。
七、Randy Woods
People didn't waste their money back then
那时候的人不会乱花钱。
They knew the difference between a want and a need. Kids got clothes that were 2sizes too big and grew into them and they became hand me downs. You patched your clothes you didn't throw away and get new simply because it had a rip or you wanted another color or were just tired of it.
他们知道“想要”和“需要”的区别。孩子们穿的衣服通常会大两个码,等他们长大了才刚好合身,之后这些衣服又会传给弟弟妹妹穿。你修补衣服而不是一破就扔掉,也不是因为你想要另一种颜色或只是厌倦了它就换新的。
Things weren't cheaper. They cost more alot more. It took a higher percentage of your take home pay. But things were extremely well made and lasted generations.
东西并不便宜,反而更贵。它们占你工资收入的比例更高。但那时候的东西质量非常好,可以用好几代人。
Not the throw away society now. Our cook ware lasted 30 years you didn't buy new every 3 or 4 years. Didn't have to. And couldn't afford to change simply because you wanted new. Same with furniture. Bedding towels everything. Shoes you wore till they fell apart. Then git the tape out and put what was left of the sole back on. Because you didn't know when you'd get the money for another pair.
不像现在这个“用完即弃”的社会。我们当年的厨具能用30年,不需要每三四年就换新的。你也买不起仅仅因为想换新就换厨具。家具、床上用品、毛巾、鞋子都是如此。鞋子穿烂了才会扔,穿不下去了就拿胶水粘一粘鞋底继续穿,因为你不知道什么时候才能攒够钱再买一双新的。
Thus we knew the difference between a WANT and a NEED. You never ate out. You have food at home. You didn't get a candy bar or a pop or something to eat because, that smells good. You heard, you can't be hungry you just ate 2 hours ago, you can wait till you get home. You have food at home. And imagine we weren't OBESE.
所以那时我们真的知道什么是“需要”,什么是“想要”。
我们从不在外吃饭,家里有饭吃就够了。
你不会因为闻到某种食物香味就想买根巧克力棒或一瓶汽水。
你会听到大人说:“你两小时前刚吃过,不可能饿,回家再吃。”
“家里有吃的。”
When things are cheap you waste your money. Then you don't have money for what you need.
想象一下,介时我们将从根本摆脱肥胖问题。
you only wanted what you needed. Almost every family the parent worked a full time job and a part time job. No one in my neighborhood ever had a new car. Let alone 4 or 5. They bought a car 4 or 5 years old that was new to them. Even the guy down the street who was a foreman at Ford never had a new car and worked a part time job.
当东西变得便宜时,你就开始乱花钱;而当你乱花钱时,就没有钱去购买真正需要的东西了。你只买你需要的,而不是你想要的。几乎每个家庭中,父母都有一份全职工作,甚至还要做兼职。我住的那条街上没人开过新车,更别说家里有四五辆了。大家都买的是用了四五年的二手车,对他们是“新”的就行了。就连街对面在福特公司当主管的那个人也从来没有买过新车,而且他还做着一份兼职。
Why people think it was easier. Your just ignorant of what life was truly like. You know, reality. You just see the TV shows and movies and believe that's how life was.
为什么有人觉得那时候的生活更容易?你只是不了解真实的生活是什么样子罢了。你所谓的了解,不过是看了些电视剧和电影,然后以为那就是生活。
八、Kenneth Coleman
Great question. For one thing, for most of the 1950s the top marginal tax rate was 91%. Today it’s 37%. What that means is that there was basically a maximum wage. So, imagine that you’re making 610,000 per year today, and your boss tells you he’s going to give you an extra $1 million per year. That means 91% of that million is going to go to taxes. It doesn’t make any sense to send all of that money to the top if they aren’t going to get to keep it. You’re basically just handing money to the federal government at that point. That’s a check on corporate greed. When they reduced top marginal rates under Reagan, worker wages stagnated while executive wages skyrocketed. In 1970 the middle 60% of households took home 62% of all earned wages, by 2018 the middle 60% only took home 43% of all earned wages. Why give higher wages to employees when you can keep it all for yourself? That’s not the whole story though. You have to remember that our economic boom in the US came after WWII when the manufacturing centers in Europe were decimated during the war while ours remained in tact. We were the only game in town which meant that we could produce more products and products of higher quality than the rest of the world could. So, we were exporting goods all over the world because the rest of the world didn’t have the infrastructure to do it themselves. You also have to understand that the current manufacturing powerhouses basically use sweat shop practices. They work people 12, 14, 16, or 18 hours a day for abysmally low wages without paying overtime, or complying with safety or environmental regulations. We can’t compete with that unless we treat our workers the same way. Americans won’t put up with that kind of treatment. Our labor laws were put in place under FDR, and he didn’t do it out of the goodness of his heart. There were armed uprisings. We were on track for a second civil war. Look up the Battle of Blair Mountain. It’s where we get the term “redneck”. The business owners didn’t take FDR’s new deal lying down, they were planning a coup against FDR until the former general they were trying to recruit to lead an army turned them in to the FBI. Look up the Wall Street Putsch. If you want proof that american made goods will be too expensive for most americans, look at which prices have skyrocketed, and which have remained more stable. The things that have become more expensive are things that can’t be imported: medical care, housing, education. Things that can be imported are more affordable: clothing, consumer electronics, cars.
这是一个很好的问题。首先,在1950年代大部分时间里,美国的最高边际税率是91%。而现在是37%。这意味着实际上存在一个“最高工资上限”。你可以想象一下:你现在年薪61万美元,你的老板告诉你他要给你每年再加100万美元。那么这100万美元中的91%都要交税。既然大部分钱都要上缴,那就没意义再去挣这笔钱了。你基本上就是在把钱直接送给联邦政府。
这其实是对资本贪婪的一种限制机制。当里根政府降低最高边际税率后,工人的工资停滞不前,而高管们的收入却飙升。1970年,中间60%的家庭拿到了全部工资收入的62%,而到了2018年,这个比例已经下降到43%。
既然可以自己留着钱,为什么要给员工涨工资呢?当然,这不是全部原因。你还得记住,二战后美国的经济繁荣,是因为欧洲的制造业中心在战争中被摧毁,而我们的工业设施完好无损。
我们是当时世界上唯一有能力大量生产高质量产品的地方,所以我们向全世界出口商品,因为其他国家根本没有能力自己制造。
你还必须明白,如今的制造业强国基本上都在使用血汗工厂的做法。他们的工人每天工作12、14、16甚至18个小时,工资极低,没有加班费,也不遵守安全或环保法规。
除非我们也这样对待自己的工人,否则无法与他们竞争。而美国人是不会接受这种待遇的。我们的劳动法是在罗斯福(FDR)时期建立的,并不是因为他心地善良。当时爆发了武装起义,我们差点爆发第二次内战。你可以查一下“布雷尔山战役(Battle of Blair Mountain)”,那里就是“红脖子(redneck)”这个词的来源。
商界大佬们并没有乖乖接受罗斯福的新政。他们曾策划了一场针对罗斯福的政变,直到他们试图招募来领导军队的一位前将军将他们告发给了联邦调查局。你可以查一下“华尔街政变(Wall Street Putsch)”。如果你想证明“美国制造的商品太贵,大多数美国人买不起”,那就看看哪些价格飞涨,哪些价格保持稳定就知道了:
1.医疗、住房、教育这些无法进口的行业价格暴涨;
2.服装、消费电子产品、汽车这些可以进口的商品价格则相对稳定。
九、Chris Thomas
Americans of a certain age look back on the 1950s and 1960s as “normal.” To an extent, that is understandable. “Normal” is the world a person grows up in. Our brains are pattern matching machines and we set our baseline by observing the world around us during our childhood.
一些年纪较大的美国人常常把1950年代和1960年代视为“正常”的时代。从某种程度上讲,这是可以理解的。“正常”是一个人在成长过程中所经历的世界。我们的大脑是模式识别机器,我们在童年时期观察周围世界,从而设定我们对“正常”的基准。
But the 1950s and 1960s in the United States were anything but normal. They were one of the strangest times in world history.
但其实,美国的1950年代和1960年代一点都不正常,那是世界历史上最奇特的时期之一。
In 1945 America came home from the war. The GIs bought houses and raised families. There was a massive baby boom. Times were good. Jobs were plentiful. You can still drive around most cities today and spot mile-after-mile of post-war shopping districts and residential developments that are almost a stereotype of the American dream: two bedrooms, one bath, white picket fence. All a young family needs to get started. Times were good.
1945年战争结束后,美国大兵们返乡。退伍军人买了房子、组建了家庭,迎来了大规模婴儿潮。那时的日子很好过,工作机会很多。今天你开车穿过许多城市,仍能看到成片成片的战后商业区和住宅区,几乎成了美国梦的标准画面:两间卧室、一间浴室、白色栅栏——年轻家庭起步所需的一切。那真是个好时代。
The people who lived in those houses lived good, solid, middle class lives. Here’s a Piggly Wiggly grocery store in Texas in 1948.
住在那些房子里的人过着体面稳定的中产阶级生活。这是1948年德克萨斯州一家Piggly Wiggly杂货店的照片:
德克萨斯1948
Hold this image in your head. The suburban mom shopping at the Piggly Wiggly, choosing from the frozen foods, meats, and fresh produce. She’ll take that home to her family where they’ll all sit down to a nice home-cooked meal.
请记住这张画面:郊区的母亲在Piggly Wiggly超市购物,挑选冷冻食品、肉类和新鲜农产品。她把这些带回家,全家人一起享用一顿温馨的家常饭。
At the same time, Britain and France were still under food rationing. Germany lay in ruins. Agriculture was just beginning to claw its way back into some semblance of normality across Europe and Asia. Industry was still a long way off. American food, American industrial products, American textiles, even American oil was life-support for a world bled white by war.
与此同时,英国和法国仍在实行食品配给制。德国一片废墟。农业才刚刚开始恢复到战前水平。整个欧洲和亚洲的工业还远未复苏。美国的粮食、工业产品、纺织品,甚至是石油,都是战后世界的救命稻草。
柏林1948
What Americans think of as an idyllic “normal” in the 1950s and 1960s is a lifestyle built that was only possible because the United States had emerged from World War 2 as the most fantastically wealthy, powerful, and dominant country in world history. There’s a good reason for this and it comes down to the fact that American cities were never bombed, never invaded, never pillaged, and never burned in the course of World War II.
美国人眼中1950至1960年代那种理想化的“正常”生活,实际上是建立在美国从二战中崛起为世界上最富有、最强大、最主导国家的基础之上的。出现这种情况是有原因的:美国的城市从未被轰炸、从未被入侵、从未被掠夺、也从未被战火焚毁。
There are many, many examples of this but one of the most compelling comes from the International Monetary Fund. By 1947 the United States had come to be in possession of 70% of the world’s gold supply. At a time when gold was synonymous with national wealth, a single country — one of almost 200 — had 70% of it.
有很多例子可以说明这一点,其中最具说服力的一个来自国际货币基金组织(IMF)。到1947年,美国拥有全球70%的黄金储备。而在那个黄金等同于国家财富的时代,一个国家——在近200个国家中——竟然拥有70%的黄金。
Putting that into perspective is almost impossible but consider this. The total net wealth of the United States is about $135 Trillion. Elon Musk — probably the wealthiest person in America right now — has a net worth of about $200 Billion.
要理解这个数字有多夸张几乎是不可能的,但我们可以做个类比:今天美国的净资产总额约为135万亿美元。而目前可能是美国最富有的人——埃隆·马斯克的净资产大约是2000亿美元。
For Elon Musk to be as rich - compared to other Americans - as the United States was compared to the other countries in the international community he would have to have to be 472 TIMES wealthier than he is today. Americans could afford goods produced in America because they were rich. Fantastically, unbelievably rich.
如果把“马斯克的财富地位对比其他美国人”和“美国在全球范围内的财富地位对比其他国家”作一个横向类比,那么他必须比现在富裕472倍才行。美国人之所以能买得起在美国制造的商品,是因为他们非常非常富有。富有到一种难以想象的程度。
They just didn’t realize it.
但连他们自己都没意识到这一点。