为何阿根廷的经济崩溃是对世界的警告？

 
@merxj
There’s a phrase I love about Argentina “If you return after a month, everything has changed; if you return after 10 years, everything is the same.” It perfectly captures our tendency to go in circles, both politically and economically.
 
我很喜欢一句关于阿根廷的话：“如果你一个月后回来，你会发现一切都变了；如果你十年后回来，你会发现一切还是老样子。”这话完美概括了我们在政治和经济上兜圈子的倾向。
 
@kittymarch8455
One thing missing is the opening of the Panama Canal in 1914. Previously, all ships traveling between the Atlantic and Pacific passed by Argentina, meaning it was easy to fill your hold with Argentine beef and agriculture. With the opening of the canal, that ended. Ships now had to make a special trip to Argentina.
World War I broke out that year and the international capital flow basically shut down and didn’t recover until well after WWII.
Everything you say is true, but the Panama Canal cutting Argentina off from the world’s main shipping routes was the initial domino and completely out of Argentina’s control.
 
视频里漏了一点，1914年巴拿马运河开通。之前，所有往返大西洋和太平洋的船只都会经过阿根廷，能够轻而易地举装满阿根廷牛肉和农产品。运河开通后，这一切结束了，船只得专门跑一趟阿根廷。
同年第一次世界大战爆发，国际资本流动基本停滞，直到二战后很久才恢复。
你说的都对，但巴拿马运河切断了阿根廷与全球主要航线的联系，这是第一块倒下的多米诺骨牌，完全不受阿根廷的控制。
 
@IamS-c2p
There are 5 kinds of Economy -
1.Developed
2.Developing
3.Underdeveloped
4.Japan
5.Argentina
 
经济体有五种类型——
发达经济体
发展中经济体
不发达经济体
日本
阿根廷
 
@cbbcbb6803
Do not rely on a single industry.
Do not just do what anyone can do.
Diversify your economy.
Have an educated and skilled population.
Have an internal economy that can stand a global economic collapse.
 
别依赖单一产业。
别只做谁都能做的事。
经济要多元化。
要有受教育且技能娴熟的人口。
要有能抵御全球经济崩溃的内部经济。
 
@mlk4343
Argentine here. I want to commend you, this documentary is very well done and very informative. One point I’d like to add: from the mid-1940s through the late 1960s, Argentina’s middle class continued to grow at an unprecedented rate, despite ongoing economic instability and political turbulence. It wasn’t until the mid-1980s that our middle class began to unravel in historically unrecognizable ways, culminating in a full collapse during the hyperinflation crisis of the late 1980s. Entire middle-class families were thrown to the streets almost overnight. It was brutal. While there were several periods of economic recovery after that, our middle class was never quite the same after what happened in the 80s.
 
我是阿根廷人。我得夸夸你，这部纪录片做得非常棒，信息量很大。我想补充一点：从1940年代中期到1960年代末，尽管经济不稳定、政治动荡，阿根廷的中产阶级仍然以空前的速度增长。直到1980年代中期，中产阶级才开始以历史上前所未有的方式瓦解，最终在1980年代末的恶性通货膨胀危机中彻底崩溃。整个中产家庭几乎一夜之间流落街头，这太残酷了。之后虽有几次经济恢复，但上世纪80年代那场灾难后，我们的中产阶级再也没能恢复原貌。
 
@fedeserra1591
Argentina was as rich as Canada, US and Australia but on gdp, they didn’t have no way near the industrialization the other countries had, they only exported primary goods, which isn’t bad but not the best if you try to compete. Then globalization happened and they stayed behind.
Fast forward 2 dictatorships, Perón, the 2001’s crisis and many corrupt politicians who played with the country for 12-14 straight years as if it was theirs
 
阿根廷曾和加拿大、美国、澳大利亚一样富裕，但论GDP，他们的工业化水平远不及这些国家，他们只出口初级产品，虽然这不坏，但想参与竞争就不够了。后来全球化来了，他们落伍了。
快进到两次独裁、庇隆主义、2001年危机，还有一大堆腐败的政客连续12-14年把国家当自己家玩弄。
 
@SurvivorsQuest1
Here’s a good example for you. I have a 1945 Argentinian 10 Centavo coin that at face value is worth less than one hundred-QUADRILLIONTH of a US Cent today. There isn’t enough copper on Earth to produce enough of these to be even worth a single cent!
 
给你个好例子。我有一枚1945年的阿根廷10分硬币，其面值现在连一美分的百千万亿分之一都不值，地球上的铜都不够铸造这些让它们加起来值一美分的硬币！
 
@neilverma
It’s a harsh realization, really. That even with massive natural resources, poor policy and instability can completely derail prosperity. Resources aren’t enough on their own, it seems.
 
真是个残酷的现实。即使有丰富的自然资源，糟糕的政策和不稳定也能彻底毁掉繁荣。看来光有资源远远不够。
 
@chaandchandu
No matter what the topic, a cold fusion video is always a pleasant experience to watch. Explanation is clear and no gimmicks like other youtubers.
 
不管啥主题，Cold Fusion的视频总是看得很舒服，解释得很清楚，没有像其他YouTuber那样搞花里胡哨的噱头。
 
@samot1808
You’d think a 20 min documentary about Argentina would mention corruption. It’s pretty difficult to have a prosperous country when politicians only want to make themselves wealthy at the expense of society.
 
一部20分钟的阿根廷纪录片居然只字不提腐败问题？当政客们只想牺牲社会利益中饱私囊时，国家繁荣根本无从谈起。
 
@echewta
As folks in the comments may blame capitalism, socialism, Communism, left, right, militarism, outside influence, etc., the true root of most failures anywhere is greed. What’s best for me before what’s best for we.
 
评论区的人可能会指责资本主义、社会主义、共产主义、左派、右派、军国主义或外部势力等等，但其实大多数失败背后的根本原因是贪婪。总想着“我能得到什么”，而不是“我们能共同得到什么”。
 
@crr_sloth
I recently visited Argentina from the US, and it is such a beautiful country with beautiful and friendly people. I feel bad that generations have been stripped of any growth in a country with so much potential. I hope they can get back on track and become a prosperous country again.
 
我最近从美国去了一趟阿根廷，那真是一个美丽的国家，人民也非常友善热情。让我难过的是，这么有潜力的国家，几代人都被剥夺了发展的机会。我真心希望他们能重新回到正轨，变得繁荣起来。
 
@westlarper
i'm surprised the falklands war didn't get mentioned, surely fighting a war with a core NATO member would scare investors, probably the biggest junta blunder
 
我很惊讶视频没有提到福克兰战争。和一个北约核心成员国打仗肯定会吓退投资者，这大概是军政府犯下的最大错误。
 
@Midare13
As an argentinian, you learn the word "inflation" very early but man... now I hope that finally changes, and hopefully the younger generations have good memory about what, and who, brought us to this point.
 
作为一个阿根廷人，你从小就得学会“通货膨胀”这个词……但天啊，我真希望情况能有所改变。希望年轻一代能记住，是哪些政策和哪些人把我们带到了今天的地步的。
 
@Josfarid
You forgot about how devastating was the consolidation of the Panama Canal, the railway and port sistem moved a great part of chilean mining exports ( knowing that Hornos Cape and the Magellan Pass is very dangerous to sail) . When the Panama Canal started flourishing there was no need for trans andinian routes.
 
你忘了巴拿马运河建成后带来的巨大冲击。原本的铁路和港口体系承担了大量智利矿产的出口（毕竟在合恩角和麦哲伦海峡航行非常危险），而随着巴拿马运河的繁荣，穿越安第斯山脉的路线也就变得不再必要了。
 
@LtMarcelo
Argentina's big problem is Peronism. All Peronist governments have two things in common: they position themselves on any part of the political spectrum in order to maintain power, and they spend more money than they collect to gain support.
Furthermore, Peronism, as an offshoot of Mussolini's fascism, confuses government and state, which is why it infiltrates the entire state structure.
Many countries in the Americas also had dictatorships, crises, and problems, but none suffered the economic decline of Argentina, and this is due to a profound lack of interest in having serious economic policies.
As an example, the last Peronist president (Alberto Fernández) expressly said he did not believe in economic plans. His government spent its entire time issuing currency to pay for excessive public spending.
 
阿根廷最大的问题就是庇隆主义。所有庇隆主义政府都有两个共同点：为了维持权力，它们会在政治光谱上摆出任何立场；为了赢得支持，它们总是入不敷出，大肆花钱。
庇隆主义是墨索里尼法西斯主义的变体，它混淆了“政府”和“国家”的界限，所以才会全面渗透国家机器。
美洲很多国家也有独裁、危机和各种问题，但没有一个像阿根廷这样长期经济衰退，其根源就是缺乏严肃的经济政策。
举个例子，上一任庇隆主义总统阿尔韦托·费尔南德斯就公开表示他不相信经济计划，他整个任期几乎都靠印钞来支付超额的公共开支。
 
@Waldohasaskit210
So other countries that have tried protectionism, state control and high tariffs and it didn't work out? It's good we've learned that lesson and aren't going to try the same thing again anywhere else.
 
所以那些搞保护主义、国家干预和高关税的国家都失败了？真好，至少我们已经从中吸取了教训，不会再在别的地方重蹈覆辙了。
 
@marianomartin3365
Argentinian here. Born in buenos Aires in 1992 and lived my whole life here. This video is really well done. It captures the economic spiral we are so used to by now. A key factor here to consider is the constant division of the people regarding which political party is a better option to vote. To this day we are still divided between "peronistas" and "antiperonistas". And this political crisis cycle is intentionally fed by the ideas of kicking the board and starting fresh on the next government. It is perfectly predictable by now: A government, that spends more money than available and fails after massive inflation, gets replaced by the new government that promises to be the savior under neo liberalism politics. State of welfare is no more, so this makes things hard for lower classes when the economic bubble pops if the model is not correctly implemented. Then economy crashes, and people go to vote "peronistas" because factories and state involved policies need a heavy restart. It is like a constant VS nemesis game in politics that completely suppress the people's ability to think neutral and rise with new political ideas.
We use to say here that our country does politics as we play football matches: Ruthless, in it to win it, and the opponent is almost always an enemy.
We, as a culture, absorbed this team rivalry mentality and i hope it changes one day.
 
我来自阿根廷，1992年出生在布宜诺斯艾利斯，我一直生活在这里。这个视频拍得非常好，它精准地呈现了我们早已习惯的经济螺旋。一个关键的问题在于民众始终为选哪个政党而严重分裂，直到今天，我们仍然在“庇隆派”和“反庇隆派”之间对立。
这种政治危机循环是被“推翻重来”这种观念故意煽动的。现在的套路早就成了标准流程：一个政府花钱如流水，导致通货膨胀，最后失败；接着换上一个承诺要以新自由主义路线拯救国家的政府，福利国家制度就此终结，如果这个模式实施不到位，底层人民在经济泡沫破裂时会陷入困境。然后经济再次崩溃，选民又回去投庇隆派，因为他们觉得国家需要靠工厂和政府干预来重启经济。
政治成了一个永无止境的死敌对抗游戏，彻底压制了人们以中立的角度思考和发展新政治观念的能力。
我们常说在阿根廷，搞政治就像踢足球：毫不留情、志在必胜，而对手几乎永远是敌人。
这种对抗心态已经融入了我们的文化，希望有一天能够改变。
 
@Nalopotato
As an avid player of GeoGuessr, whenever I arrive in a South American country on the map and it looks pretty nice, I always say to myself "this is probably Argentina or Preu". It's a shame that Argentina struggles so much. It looks like a really nice place, for the most part. Yes there are plenty of other nice areas in South American countries, but Argentina seems especially nice all over. I regularly get the roads confused with nicer "first world" country roads.
 
作为一个GeoGuessr游戏的狂热玩家，每当我在地图上来到一个看起来不错的南美国家时，我总会对自己说：“这可能是阿根廷或秘鲁。” 阿根廷如今这么困难，真的很可惜。大体上看，它真的是个很美的地方。是的，南美其他国家也有很多不错的地方，但阿根廷好像到处都特别漂亮。我经常会把那里的道路误认成发达国家的道路。
 
@teresabarnes-matych
We own and operate an import/export business that supplies fresh fruit to many markets. On a trip in Brazil we took a break between meetings for a quick dinner and between the first and second rounds of Bohemia the price had nearly doubled. When I asked the bartender about the discrepancy he pointed at his newspaper and indicated inflation was to blame. Crazy!
 
我们经营一家进出口公司，向许多市场供应新鲜水果。有一次我们在巴西出差，在两场会议之间抽空吃个晚饭，结果在第一轮和第二轮啤酒之间，价格几乎翻了一倍。我问酒保为什么价格差那么多，他指了指报纸，意思是通货膨胀的错。这太疯狂了！
 
@itsvmmc
Main lesson: economical manipulation is bad. The government shouldn't print money, set tariffs, or manipulate the economy in any other way. Not only it harms international relations, but also the country doing it is shooting itself in the foot long-term.
 
主要的教训就是：操控经济是有害的。政府不该滥印钞票、设立关税，或用其他方式操控经济。这不仅损害国际关系，从长远看，也是在自残。
 
@jfbaro2
That’s not entirely accurate. While Argentina experienced significant economic growth in the early 20th century, much of the wealth was concentrated among a small elite. The general population, particularly workers, did not enjoy the same level of prosperity. Therefore, it’s misleading to compare Argentina’s historical wealth distribution directly with that of countries like Canada or Australia today.
 
这并不完全准确。尽管阿根廷在20世纪初经历了显著的经济增长，但大部分财富集中在少数精英手中。普通民众，尤其是工人，并未享受到同等的繁荣。因此，将阿根廷的历史财富分布直接与如今的加拿大或澳大利亚相比是有误导性的。
 
@__Wanderer
Argentina didn't industrialise by building competitive industries at home but it did it through high tariffs - I see what you did there ;) and yes 100% agree, economic madness creates mad results.
 
阿根廷并不是通过建设有竞争力的本土产业来实现工业化的，而是靠高关税——我明白你在暗示什么 ;) 我完全同意，经济上的疯狂只会带来疯狂的结果。
 
@thedrewster0408
I would like to mention that during Argentina’s golden age from 1880-1930, the country would also produce the world’s first animated feature film called “El Apóstol” by director Quirino Cristiani in 1917. 9 years before the oldest surviving animated film and 20 years before Walt Disney’s “Snow White and the Seven Dwarves” would release. Unfortunately, Cristiani’s film is completely lost media as the only known copy was destroyed in a 1926 fire in the producer’s studio.
 
我想补充一点，在阿根廷1880至1930年的黄金时代，该国还制作了世界上第一部长篇动画电影——由Quirino Cristiani导演的《使徒》（诞生于1917年）。这比现存最古老的动画片早了9年，比迪士尼的《白雪公主和七个小矮人》还早了20年。可惜的是这部电影现在已经完全遗失，唯一的拷贝在1926年制片厂的一场火灾中被毁。
 
@ForcefighterX2
Argentina simply became another casulty of a specific centrally intelligent agency. ;-)
And for those who think this is unlikely, they clearly have not yet learned enough about pentagon foreign politics and other three-letter involvements.
 
阿根廷不过是某个特定的中央情报机构的又一个受害者 ;-)
对于那些认为这不太可能的人来说，他们显然还没有真正了解五角大楼的外交政策以及那些字母缩写机构的各种干预。
 
@RondellKB
"But there was a problem, Argentina didn't industrialize by building competitive industries at home that people wanted to buy from, they did it by using high tariffs and closing off the rest of the world." So basically exactly what Trump is doing right now lol.
 
“问题在于阿根廷并不是通过建设有吸引力的本土产业实现工业化的，而是依靠高关税，封闭外部世界。” 所以说，这不就是特朗普现在在干的事吗？哈哈。
 
@DiestroCorleone
As I walk through the streets of the neighborhood where I grew up (I moved back a couple years ago), listening to this video, I remember a story my grandma used to tell me: 'back then, we would go to the grocery store, and the employees would change the prices of the products as we were taking them from the shelves'.
So you can add her testimony to the list of sources for this video.
 
当我一边听着这个视频，一边走在我长大的街区（我几年前搬回来的）时，我想起了奶奶曾经给我讲的一个故事：“那时候我们去杂货店买东西，员工会在我们拿商品的时候就改价。”
你可以把她的讲述也算作这个视频的参考资料之一。
 
@STAG162
Dagogo, your channel used to be based around "Science, Technology, Business and History " and I can't help but think this is a history lesson based around how a country is run, not just business, which is probably the most broad lix you could find to your channel's ethos. The more of these retrospectives you do, the more you're sticking to your old ethos which included history.
 
Dagogo，你的频道最初以“科学、技术、商业和历史”为主题，我觉得这期内容就像是一节关于国家如何运作的历史课而不仅仅是商业分析。这大概是你能找到的与频道宗旨最宽泛的关联了。你做的这些回顾视频越多，就越是回归你最初涵盖的“历史”的理念。
 
@finallyaugok1885
So similar to Nigeria's current situation. The only difference is that the current rulership aren't seeking solutions but actively working on how much they can loot and escape with if or when it all crumbles.
 
这太像如今的尼日利亚了。唯一的不同是现在的统治阶层根本没有找解决办法，而是在积极盘算如果国家垮了，他们能抢走多少、怎么跑路。
 
@notpinoy
Maybe you can talk about the Philippines which has, first in history, a president and first lady who are allegedly cocaine addicts. The first lady was allegedly held in the US when she was found in a hotel room with a dead friend assumed to have died of overdose while sachets of cocaine could be seen in their room. This has been mentioned by none other than the vice president of the country in one of her interviews.
 
也许你可以聊聊菲律宾，他们历史上首次拥有一位据称都嗜可卡因的总统和第一夫人。据说第一夫人在美国被发现和一个死在酒店房间里的朋友在一起，房间里还能看到小袋装的可卡因。这件事是该国副总统在一次采访中亲口提到的。
 
@MarcoMasseria
Watching from Uruguay.
Argentina was never more than a commodity producer. It never invented anything. Even it's first large electricity company was the Italian Argentinian Electricity Company.
In order for a nation to be wealthy, it must innovate. Argentina did not.
Argentina had a fantastic head start, but lacked the drive and intellect to innovate and work with cooperating and collaboration at a societal level.
 
我在乌拉圭看这个视频。
阿根廷一直不过是个原材料出口国，从来没有真正发明过什么。甚至它的第一家大型电力公司都是意大利裔阿根廷人开的。
一个国家要想富有，必须有创新，而阿根廷没有。
它曾有过极好的开局，但缺乏创新的动力与智慧，也缺乏社会层面的合作精神。
 
@LukeTramps
The real problem - in Argentina and everywhere else - is incompetent / corrupt managerial class (managers, politicians, bureaucrats, etc) who skim as much off the top as they can by making rules, that profit themselves at the expense of everyone else. That works, when a countries economy is very strong, but once problems arise, they will do anything to keep (improving) their way of living. Thus, the managerial class is the real issue, as it is parasitic in nature - leaching off all those, who create real value for each other.
That's what fed Argentina and that's what will f you in the end.
 
真正的问题——不只是阿根廷，到处都是——在于那些无能或腐败的管理阶层（经理、政客、官僚等等），他们靠制定对自己有利的规则从中捞好处，牺牲的是其他所有人。这种做法在经济强盛时还能维持，但一旦出问题，他们会不择手段地维护自己的生活方式。所以说，真正的问题是这个寄生性的管理阶层——他们吸干的是那些真正为彼此创造价值的人。
这就是毁掉阿根廷，也终将毁掉你的原因。
 
@ILoveLibertyJustice
The root of Argentina’s struggles lies in the toxic blend of socialism and rampant corruption. Despite possessing abundant natural resources to this day, the nation falters. Argentina must rigorously enforce its laws, ensuring accountability for all, from the wealthiest to the poorest. Bribes and clandestine deals must end! Every individual, particularly corrupt politicians, must face equal justice under the law. If Argentina can overcome these challenges however daunting they will pave the way for renewed prosperity.
How do I know? I’ve lived it. I know what’s up.
 
阿根廷之所以陷入困境，根本原因在于社会主义的毒性与猖獗的腐败相结合。即便如今依然拥有丰富的自然资源，这个国家依然步履维艰。阿根廷必须严格执行法律，确保所有人——无论贫富——都承担责任。行贿和秘密交易必须停止！每个人，尤其是腐败的政客，必须在法律面前人人平等。如果阿根廷能克服这些挑战——尽管困难重重——它仍有望重拾繁荣。
我怎么知道的？因为我亲身经历过，我知道这其中的真相。
 
@AgusSimoncelli
This video is incredibly bad researched. It incorrectly states that gdp per capita was higher than France's and other industrialized european countries, based on the Maddison project which is dog shit. Just for reference, according to it, australia was the richest country in the world in 1880. It's a source that overestimates foreign trade (easy to measure) and underestimates the local economy (there's pretty much no reliable data about that at that time). It spends less than 30 seconds in the 13 years following the great depression (and the disastrous effects it had on the country's economy) and then incorrectly states Peron's presidency started in 1943 (4 years earlier than it actually did).
A highschooler in argentina would be able to able to do a better job than this
 
这个视频的研究实在太差了，它错误地声称阿根廷的人均GDP曾高于法国和其他工业化欧洲国家，而这基于所谓的Maddison项目，那个东西就是狗屎。举个例子，按它的数据，澳大利亚在1880年是世界上最富有的国家。这套数据过分高估了（容易衡量的）对外贸易，低估了（当时几乎没有可靠数据的）本地经济。视频用不到30秒讲完了大萧条之后那13年对阿根廷经济造成的毁灭性影响，还错误地说庇隆在1943年就当上了总统（实际上早了4年）。
一个阿根廷的高中生都能比这做得更好。
 
@eksbocks9438
The key is to be self-sustaining. In terms of resources/revenue. While also being open to trade with other countries.
Not to mention having a system that can actually work for the general public. Instead of neglecting it.
Which makes people happy in the long run. And limits corruption in government.
 
关键在于实现自给自足，在资源和收入方面如此，同时也要开放贸易，与其他国家保持联系。
更不用说，要有一个真正为民众服务而不是忽视他们的利益的体制。
从长远来看，这样能让人民更幸福，也能限制政府的腐败。
 
@gnolan4281
I visited Buenos Aires twice and travelled within the country by bus. It has absolutely everything including the best people. In the interests of justice and fairness they put in place the wrong economic model. Let's see if the new President can help.
 
我曾两次造访布宜诺斯艾利斯，还坐长途汽车在阿根廷国内旅行。阿根廷应有尽有，还有一群非常棒的人。可惜他们为了追求正义与公平，采用了错误的经济模式。看看新总统是否能有所作为吧。
 
@fdjw88
After watching this video, I realize Argentina is no different from Saudi Arabia. It's just that one country is rich only in oil, while the other is rich in many kinds of resources except oil. But neither country was industrialized. However, Saudi Arabia being a kingdom has long term political stability, which is a key characteristic which Argentina does not have.
 
看完这个视频我意识到阿根廷其实和沙特阿拉伯没什么不同。一个国家富含石油，另一个则拥有丰富多样的资源，唯独没有石油。但这两个国家都没有实现工业化。不过，沙特作为一个王国，拥有长期的政治稳定，而这正是阿根廷所缺乏的关键因素。