"比希腊更糟"：日本的债务是否濒临崩溃点？

 
 
When inflation ticked up a few years ago, it brought anxiety to many governments - except for Japan who hoped to use the slightly higher inflation to get out of its zero-growth slump. But, that seems to have backfired, so, in this video, we're taking a look at the Japanese economy, the debt crisis and what could happen next.
 
数年前通胀初现时，多数政府感到忧虑，唯独日本期待借助温和通胀摆脱零增长困境。但事与愿违，本期视频将剖析日本经济现状、债务危机及可能的后续发展。
 

@zeroyuki92
As a non economist, it feels like the outcome of government chasing good numbers instead of focusing on producing actual value
 
作为非经济学专业人士，这似乎是政府追逐漂亮数据而非创造实际价值的结果。
 
@rkace155
You see, this is why lack of immigration is a problem for politicians. When there are no immigrants to blame, the politicians actually have to take the blame!
 
这正是移民短缺成为政客难题的原因。当没有移民可指责时，政客们就不得不承担罪责了！
 
@BZAKether
As the economists' "joke" says: There are 4 kinds of countries: developed countries, developing countries, Argentina, and Japan.
 
正如经济学家的"笑话"所说：世界上有四类国家——发达国家、发展中国家、阿根廷，以及日本。
 
@GlowingRoseDoesGeo
LDP: "We aren't managing the economy well"
Japanese Voterbase: "But we'll vote for you anyway!"
 
自民党："我们没有把经济管理好"。
日本选民："但我们照样会投票给你！"
 
@mayafortin5993
Japan's debt situation definitely looks alarming—worse than Greece is a scary comparison. With such massive national debt, it feels like the country could be on the edge of a serious crisis that might impact global markets. But honestly, as someone trying to understand this better, I'm not sure what this means for everyday people or how we should prepare. If anyone has clear insights or practical advice on what this could mean and how to protect ourselves financially, I'd really appreciate the help. It's confusing and honestly overwhelming
 
日本的债务状况确实令人担忧——"比希腊更糟"这种比较很可怕。如此庞大的国债让人感觉这个国家可能正处在会冲击全球市场的严重危机的边缘。但说实话，作为试图理解这个问题的人，我不确定这对普通人意味着什么，也不知道该如何准备。如果有人能提供清晰的见解或实用的建议，说明这可能造成什么影响以及如何在财务上自我保护，我将非常感激。这真的很令人困惑，坦白说也很让人不知所措。
 
@Eggmancan
You use the word "stagflationary" several times to describe Japan's past economy, but stagflation refers to an economy with high inflation but low growth. Japan's problem was that inflation was LOW, it was a deflationary economy. You guys are generally good about economics, so I was surprised but this mistake.
 
你们多次用"滞胀"形容日本过去的经济，但滞胀指的是高通胀伴随低增长。日本的问题恰恰是通胀过低，属于通缩型经济。你们通常对经济问题分析得很到位，所以这个错误让我很意外。
 
@antonio_fosnjar
The situation is even worse when you consider that China has started to chip at Japans exports, specially at car market which is a sizeable chunk of GDP and employment.
 
考虑到中国已经开始蚕食日本的出口市场，尤其是占GDP和就业相当比重的汽车领域，情况就更严峻了。
 
@ShikiByakko
It is all a policy problem.
The problem in Japan for decades now has been that there is no way for small companies to grow, and the government, SINCE THE 90'S, has maintained "too big to fail" companies out of trouble, and they have become "zombie corporations", that just waste money and do not care because they will get saved by the goverment.
On the regulatory side, Japan is worse than even the EU, and they constantly add new regulation to new and edge technologies, that basically kills any real development of these technologies by small companies, meaning that only big companies can do anything in the country, but they just don't since the only real competition that they feel is from outside Japan, and they are now so out of touch that they are just trying to survive instead of innovate.
The whole "deflation" thing was the symptom, not the cause of Japan's economic woes.
The fact that decades of extravagant monetary policy did absolutely nothing kind of shows this to be the fact.
 
这都是政策问题造成的。
几十年来日本的症结在于中小企业无法成长，而政府从上世纪90年代起就持续救助"大而不能倒"的企业，这些"僵尸企业"只会浪费资金且毫不在意，因为它们总能获得来自政府的纾困。
在监管方面日本比欧盟更严苛，他们不断对新兴技术增设新规，这在实质上扼杀了中小企业对这些技术的实际开发，这意味着只有大企业才能在国内有所作为，但它们毫无作为，因为它们唯一能感受到的竞争来自国外，如今它们与现实严重脱节，只顾生存而非创新。
所谓"通缩"只是表象，而非日本经济困境的根源。
数十年来激进的货币政策毫无成效恰恰证明了这一点。
 
@AA-ux6gg
I'm Japanese, but this guy only said that because he doesn't want to lower the consumption tax. He'll probably lose to the tax-cutting DPFP in the July election
Idk maybe we'll get to see Japan's own Liz Truss shock, but since this channel is run by a British person, this joke might be pretty funny lol
 
我是日本人，但这个家伙说这些只是不想降低消费税。七月的大选他很可能败给主张减税的民主党。
说不定我们能看到日本版的"特拉斯危机"，不过既然这是英国人的频道，这个玩笑可能挺有意思。
 
@paulm2467
The biggest difference is that Japanese debt is owned by the Japanese public so it isn't susceptible to international pressure, the US debt is enormous and growing fast and about 20% of it is owned by foreign governments, this means that the probable loss of reserve currency status is going to put massive pressure on the USA as it won't be able to service its debts.
 
最大区别在于日本的债务由国民持有，不受国际压力的影响，而美国的债务庞大且快速增长，约20%由外国政府持有，这意味着如果失去储备货币地位，美国将因无力偿债而承受巨大的压力。
 
@banished341
Who would have guessed that:
A %200+ Debt is impossible to service.
Inflation as a result of price hikes on necessities like food and fuel doesn't spur growth (because they're necessary to live)
A nation of seniors (which Japan is) can't be jolted into becoming a consumption-driven economy.
As a mathematician, it boggles my mind how dumb "smart people with PhDs" can be when it comes to storytelling from numbers.
 
谁能想到：
200%以上的债务根本无法偿还。
食品燃料等必需品涨价带来的通胀不会刺激增长（因为这些都是生存必需品）。
老龄化国家（如日本）无法被刺激成消费驱动型经济。
作为数学家，这些"聪明博士"用数据讲故事时的愚蠢程度令我震惊。
 
@taraldomland8657
Japans problems started when America forced them to upvalue the yen and to buy more American. Japan should try to reverse this. Think about themselfs and not so much their alliance. Japan actually really need to just reboost their economy
 
日本的问题始于美国强迫日元升值和购买更多美国货。日本应该设法扭转这种情况，多考虑自身而非盟友。日本现在真正需要的是重振经济。
 
@Nick-tb3cl
This video is misleading. It should also mention that Japan holds the largest net external assets in the world. Of course, it's true that the country faces serious fiscal challenges, but that doesn't tell the whole story.
 
这个视频有误导性。它应该提到日本持有全球最大的净外部资产，当然该国确实面临严峻的财政挑战，但这并非全貌。
 
@dominikmankowski1636
It is not worse than Greece's debt. The vast majority of Japan's debt is internal, owed to Japanese citizens. The Japanese government can print money at any time (while simultaneously increasing inflation) to repay it. Greece, on the other hand, had (and still has) most of its debt owed to foreign entities (mainly German banks), and since it is in the eurozone, it cannot print its own money.
 
情况不比希腊更糟。日本的债务绝大部分是内债，是欠本国公民的。政府随时可以印钞偿还（同时会推升通胀）。而希腊的债务主要是欠外国实体的（主要是德国的银行），而且因其身处欧元区而无法自行印钞。
 
@ShelleyWerk
Unfortunately, not all of us were financially literate early. I was 35 when I finally educated myself and started taking steps. I went from $176,000 in debt with zero savings or retirement to now, 2 years later, fully debt-free and over $1000,000 net worth. I know that doesn't SOUND like a lot, but I'm incredibly proud of it. Now I'm fast-tracking my wealth building (investing $400,000 annually) and don't owe a dime to anyone. It's a good feeling!..
 
遗憾的是并非所有人都早早具备理财意识。我35岁才自学并采取行动，从负债17.6万美元且零存款零退休金，到两年后完全无债且净资产超100万美元。虽然我知道这听起来不多，但我非常自豪。现在我正加速财富积累（年投资40万美元）且不欠任何人一分钱。这感觉真好！
 
@tobiwan001
The US also had a 20y bond yield auction yesterday that was so weak it almost failed. That led to another spike in the 20y yield (above 5.2%). It's likely the FED will have to intervene in the US bond market to save the dollar, before Trump starts flirting with default.
 
美国昨日20年期国债拍卖需求疲软几乎流标，这导致20年期国债收益率再次飙升（超5.2%）。在特朗普开始玩弄违约念头前，美联储可能不得不干预债市以拯救美元。
 
@paul1979uk2000
I think the main problem with Japan is there secret nature as a country compared to western countries which are far more open.
Japan had the advantage until the 90's because Japan jumped on the tech train before western countries did, but in the 90's, we had a tech boom that both North America and Europe jumped on, it wiped out the advantage Japan has had and Japan have been struggling ever since and it's just simple things from slow adoption to the internet because it's a western tech.
What really surprises me is that this has been going on for 35 years and you would think that Japan would do some major policy changes to kick-start its economy, but it's struggling ever since and things would have been worse for Japan if it wasn't for the economic boom in the Asian region which has a knock on effect on boosting growth on nearby countries.
Personally, I think Japan is going to continue to sink compared to its rivals in the region unless drastic changes are done at a political and economic level and considering little has changed over 35 years, it doesn't bold well for the future of Japan.
 
我认为日本主要问题在于其封闭性，这与高度开放的西方国家形成了对比。
因其比西方更早搭上科技快车，日本的优势持续到了上世纪90年代。但上世纪90年代欧美迎来了科技繁荣，直接抹平了日本的优势。此后日本连互联网这种西方技术都接受迟缓，最终陷入了困境。
最令我惊讶的是这种情况持续了35年却未见重大的政策调整来振兴经济。若非亚洲经济繁荣对周边国家的带动作用，日本的处境会更糟。
个人认为除非进行政治经济层面的彻底改革，否则日本将继续落后于地区竞争对手。考虑到他们35年来几无变革，其前景不容乐观。
 
@pawelzybulskij3367
Even if Japanese bonds turn into junk and Yen collapses, Japan still has about a trillion of US treasures to burn through to prop up current level of services, only after that, they would have to turn to IMF and become Argentinian style economy and decline to the same standards o living.
 
即便日本债券沦为垃圾级、日元崩溃，日本仍有约万亿美债可消耗来维持现有的服务水平。只有耗尽这些储备后，它才需要向IMF求助，沦为阿根廷式的经济并降低生活标准。
 
@fernbedek6302
Japan shows that, once you're a developed nation with good living standards, if you have low inflation you don't need economic growth. Capitalists complained, but their living standards remained high for the actual people. (They had other issues, but a lot of those predated the economic stagnation.) Considering we're on a world with a finite amount of resources more countries should try to follow the Japanese model, rather than trying to pull Japan out of its stability.
 
日本证明：当成为生活水平高的发达国家后，只要保持低通胀就无需经济增长。资本家虽有怨言，但民众的生活水平依然很高（日本确有其他问题，但多数早于经济停滞出现）。考虑到地球的资源有限，更多国家应该效仿日本模式，而非试图将日本拉出稳定状态。
 
@BigBoiiLeem
Japan does not and has not had "stagflation". I heard that term used a few times. Stagflation is stagnation coupled with persistently above-average inflation (like what America experienced in the 70s). What Japan is experiencing is an entirely different and completely Japanese economic phenomenon.
 
日本从未出现"滞胀"，我听到过几次对这个词的误用。滞胀是经济停滞并伴随持续高于平均的通胀（如美国上世纪70年代的经历）。日本经历的是完全不同的、独有的经济现象。
 
@Muhammad_Ahmad_
I don't understand why Japan wants to have a "normal" economy, even though growth is weak, inflation is also low enough that wage growth isn't much of an issue for Japanese people, immigration is also low therefore easing the pressure on housing, Japan doesn't have a cost of living crisis the way other western nations do, they should have just stuck with what they're used to
 
我不懂日本为何追求"正常的"经济——他们的增长虽弱但通胀极低，这使得薪资问题不突出，低移民缓解了住房压力，也没有其他西方国家的生活成本危机。他们本应维持习惯的模式。
 
@ThomasLuke-u3v
Well, to be honest, politicians decrease debt through inflation. Then we end up with currencies with a whole lot of zeros on it. Back just 30 years ago $1 million was something now everyone that owns a house in Canada is a millionaire.
 
说实话，政客们通过通胀稀释债务，最终会导致货币面值多出许多零。30年前100万美元很了不起，但现在加拿大的每个房主都是百万富翁。
 
@ichifish
The problem with your 5% wage increase at "large companies" statistic is that it isn't representative of the larger economy, as it accounts for maybe 30% of jobs. Most of us did not get a wage increase, and instead got hammered by the 12% decline in the value of the yen between 2022-2025, along with inflation. Japan imports 60% of its food, so a weak yen really hits home. Doesn't help that JA makes commodities like rice artificially high in order to siphon money off of families to buy farmer's votes for their politicians. People are pissed, and not like ideologically-addled Americans, we're pissed because basic necessities are too costly. Imagine paying the exact same amount for basic needs for close to two decades, while wages remain the same, and suddenly food costs jump by 30% in a couple of years. Now Trump's tariffs are about to push us over the edge into a full-on recession.
 
你们统计的"大企业"的5%的涨薪不具有代表性，因为这只覆盖了约30%的岗位。多数人没有涨薪，反而遭受了2022-2025年间日元贬值12%和通胀的双重打击。日本60%的食品依赖进口，日元疲软影响巨大。更糟的是农协人为抬高大米等商品的价格，从家庭吸血换取农民对政客的选票。日本民众的愤怒不同于美国人的意识形态狂热，我们愤怒是因为基础生活物资太贵。想象一下近二十年基本生活支出不变、工资停滞，突然几年内食品价格暴涨30%会是什么样子。现在特朗普的关税政策即将把我们推入全面的衰退。
 
@Ken52172
PM Ishiba has made totally a wrong statement. Japan's situation is very different from Greece. One cannot compare only by the debt to GDP ratio. Bonds are issued in JPY. BOJ has been purchasing these bonds, and interest earnings are eventually returned to the government. It can be sustainable as long as the inflation rate is not too high.
 
石破首相的言论是完全错误的。日本的情况与希腊截然不同，不能仅凭债务/GDP比率来比较。日本国债以日元发行，央行持续购债且利息收益最终回流政府。只要通胀率不过高，这种模式就可以持续。
 
@Tamavia-y6q
You work for 42yrs to have $2m in your retirement, Meanwhile some people are putting just $20k in a meme coin for just few months and now they are multi millionaires I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life
 
有人工作42年攒200万美元退休金，同时另一些人花2万美元买 meme币几个月就成了千万富翁。愿读到这段话的人都人生成功。
 
@williamjacobs
Japan's debt is NOT worse than Greece and won't be. Greece is chained to the euro and does not control its own economy. They should reintroduce the drachma as a competing currency just like the pound sterling used to in the UK to provide flexibility with fiscal stimulus.
 
日本的债务不比希腊更糟，未来也不会。希腊受欧元束缚无法自主掌控经济，他们应该像英国保留英镑那样重新启用德拉克马作为竞争性货币以获得财政刺激的灵活性。
 
@stephenmark-q1b-w3y
This will end ugly you say. But every crash brings with it an equivalent market chance if you are early informed and equipped. I've seen folks amass up to $1m amid crash, and even pull it off easily in favorable conditions. Unequivocally, the bubble/collapse is getting somebody somewhere rich.
 
你说结局会很糟，但每次崩盘都伴随对提前准备者的机遇。我见过有人在危机中赚取百万美元，在有利条件下甚至轻松达成。毫无疑问，泡沫/崩溃正让某些人暴富。
 
@cyrusol
Just 1 minute in and I already can't describe how stupid this is.
The PM, following an ideology that is based on a complete lack of understanding about state finances publically badmouthes the creditworthiness of his own government when the entire idea of having to pay interest rate as a government is artificially engineered because of that ideology...
Jesus Christ. And that with Japan doing relatively well despite their numbers in the past 20 years - which should have been convincing enough that the "extraordinary" policies employed by Japan and the BoJ that contradicted "mainstream wisdeom" about state finances were sound and legit.
PS: Japan's GDP and related figures only looked bad post 2000 because of exchange rates against the USD worsening. The same figures in JPY looked quite well and since imports made up about 20-25% of GDP (exports are comparable) and households spending less than that on imported goods the reality for Japanese people looked much better between 2000 and 2025 than alls those figures denoted in USD suggest.
 
开场1分钟我就被这种愚蠢震惊了。
首相遵循一套完全不懂国家财政的意识形态，公开贬低政府信用评级——而"政府需要支付利息"这个概念本身就是该意识形态人为制造的...
天啊。过去20年日本的实际表现相对良好，这本应足以证明其违背"主流智慧"的特殊政策是合理有效的。
注：2000年后日本的GDP等数据看似糟糕，但这只是因为日元兑美元贬值。如果以日元计这些数据相当不错，且因进口仅占GDP的20-25%（出口比例相似）、家庭进口商品支出更少，2000-2025年间日本民众的实际境况比美元数据显示的好得多。
 
@lorenzo1988ITA
The problem with TLDR is that, after puttin a catchy clickbait question in the title, the videos are then vague and not straight to the point (and sometimes even worse not at all adressing the question)
 
长话短说，这个频道的问题是：标题用吸引眼球的问题，而视频的内容却含糊其辞，不切要害（有时甚至完全不回答问题）。
 
@lucapieralisi
The major problem for Japan is not the debt especially because most of it is held by Japan itself, ie the CBJ, local banks and companies.
The only problem for Japan is that at the pace the country is losing its people - around 600k every year since some time now - there is not going to be a Japan/Japanese by mid century or the Japanese left will be well over 70 years old.
As a former Japanese prime minister warned, if this population trend will continue, the country will stop working as a organized society...
 
日本的主要问题不是债务——尤其因大部分债务由央行、地方银行和企业持有。
日本真正的问题是人口流失速度——近年来每年约减少60万人，照此趋势到本世纪中叶或将无日本民族存续，剩下的日本人也都会超70岁。
正如某位前首相警告：若人口趋势持续，日本将无法维持有组织的社会运转...
 
@andreasarnoalthofsobottka2928
There must be a reason why no gouvernment on earth ever chose the easy and obvious way out of fiscal trouble: tax the rich and corporations; stop spending on pet- projects and the military.
 
全球政府都不会选择最直接简单的财政困境解决方案（向富豪和企业征税；停止政绩工程和军费开支），其中必有缘由。
 
@SophiaSchmidt-w4w
If banks and big institutions are pulling back, regular people like us will feel it soon. job cuts, rising debt, and shrinking investments. I already lost money in the market last year, and now I'm wondering how to protect what's left.
 
如果银行和大机构撤资，我们普通人很快就会受到影响：裁员、债务增加、投资萎缩。去年我在市场上亏损严重，现在只想知道如何保住剩余的资产。
 
@ECOpocket
Japan has always been somewhat restrained by the US and, to some extent, they've been okay with that. But maybe now is the time for Japan to take matters into its own hands and save itself.
 
日本始终受到美国的制约，某种程度上也安于现状，但或许现在应该自立更生了。
 
@Student-m4f
I believe Japan will overcome it. The nation has a long history of adapting to structural and economic challenges through innovation, social cohesion, and policy shifts. Despite the alarming debt-to-GDP ratio, Japan maintains strong institutional trust, domestic debt ownership, and a technologically advanced economy. These factors provide a foundation for sustainable restructuring, even if painful reforms in taxation, social spending, and labor policy become unavoidable.
 
我相信日本能度过难关。这个国家历来通过创新、社会凝聚力和政策调整来应对结构性经济挑战。尽管债务/GDP比率惊人，但日本保有强大的制度信任度、债务内循环体系和先进的技术经济。即便必须进行税收、社保和劳工政策的痛苦改革，这些也都为可持续的重组奠定了基础。
 
@tortoisewarrior4855
I remember everyone saying that we should all go down Japans route, strong welfare state zero immigration, and I just show them this, and they kind of deny it's even a problem. It's an economic time bomb.
 
记得大家都说该效仿日本模式——高福利，零移民，当我给他们看这些数据时，他们却矢口否认存在问题。这根本就是经济定时炸弹。
 
@I_like_YT_lots
I think one way Japan can help stimulate its economy is by welcoming immigration. It is well known is super hard to move there unless you have sponsorships with work. The aging population and low birth rate (although is similar in a lot of developed countries) is going to make the country less productive in future years. History had shown immigration helps to revive country, they just need to ensure to help immigrats intergate to the sophisticated Japanese culture but at the same time educating local citizens to welcome some form of diversity. The quickest way is allow skilled labour in a scoring type system to immigrate there while welcome foreign companies to base there rather than say Singapore.
 
日本刺激经济的一个方法是开放移民。众所周知除非有工作担保，否则极难移民日本。老龄化与低生育率（虽在发达国家普遍）将导致未来的生产力下降。历史证明移民能振兴国家，只需确保帮助移民融入精密的日本文化，同时教育国民接受多样性即可。最快的途径是建立积分制引进技术劳工并吸引外企落户。