日本人口危机达到临界点 | 金融时报影片

Japan has been struggling to cope with a combination of anaemic economic growth and a shrinking population for over 30 years. 2025 marks the tipping point when the rising costs outstrip the country's capacity to pay for them. The FT's Tokyo bureau chief Leo Lewis looks at how the country has managed its slow burning demographic crisis and what the rest of the world can learn from its experience

过去三十多年来，日本一直在艰难应对经济增长疲软与人口持续减少的双重困境。2025年成了一个关键的转折点，届时不断攀升的成本将超出国家的支付能力。《金融时报》东京分社社长Leo Lewis深入探讨了日本如何应对这场缓慢发酵的人口危机，以及全球其他地区能从其经验中汲取哪些教训。

@itmeboh
It’s almost like there’s this radical idea that if it gets too expensive to literally live, maybe just maybe, it’s not affordable to. This isn’t rocket science.

这道理简单得根本不需要高深的学问——如果连基本生存都成问题，养家糊口自然更是天方夜谭。

@liaminwales
It’s amazing to see people aged 70/80 doing sports, highlights how the UK has failed on public health.

看到70、80岁的老人在运动，真是令人惊叹。这凸显了英国在公共卫生领域的失败。

@THECASUALco
Having lived in Japan for over a decade, I can say firsthand—people outside the country love to tell Japan what it should or shouldn’t do, especially when it comes to immigration. But here’s the reality: the Japanese government has been actively courting foreign investment for years. What they really want is wealthy, stable immigrants who can contribute economically without disrupting the social fabric.
That’s the unspoken part—Japan’s not necessarily anti-immigrant, it’s just very sextive. If you’re pulling in over $70K USD and can register as a business owner, immigration becomes surprisingly easy. Japan hides behind its image of having a “strict” immigration system, but the truth is, if you have money—or you’re willing to take on the labor-intensive jobs young Japanese people are avoiding—you’ll get through the door.
The bigger issue is that wealthy individuals are usually already living comfortably elsewhere, so Japan has to offer more than just bureaucracy and beauty. Add to that a mix of cultural gatekeeping, a shrinking labor pool, and a cost-of-living-to-wage ratio that’s starting to strain even locals—and you begin to see the real complexity. It’s not just about policy; it’s about identity, economics, and Japan’s cautious approach to change

我在日本生活了十多年，我的亲身体会是——国外的人总爱对日本指手画脚，尤其在移民问题上。但真相是：日本政府多年来一直在积极吸引外国投资。他们真正想要的是有钱又稳定，能为经济出力，又不破坏社会和谐的移民。
没有明说的是——日本并不完全排斥移民，只是挑得很严格。如果你年收入超7万美元，还能注册成企业主，移民其实简单得让人意外。日本披着“严格”移民制度的外衣，但实情是：只要你有钱，或者愿意干年轻日本人嫌弃的体力活，你就能进门。
更大的问题是有钱人通常在别处已经过得很舒坦，日本得拿出比繁琐手续和美景更多的吸引力。再加上文化壁垒、劳动力缩减、连本地人都觉得吃力的生活成本与工资比例，你就看出这个问题的复杂性了。不只是政策的事儿，它还牵扯到身份认同、经济状况和日本对变革的小心翼翼。

@joew2450
A bit maddening how the presenter says in one moment people are not having children due to work pressure and rent being too high. In the next sentence, “the ONLY WAY” to stop population decline is immigration!
WTF?!? How about force rents down and tackle the reasons why people don’t feel able to have kids!

主持人的说法有点气人！前一句说工作压力大、租金高导致不生孩子，下一句就说“唯一办法”是接收移民！
搞啥啊？！强制降租金，解决人们觉得生不起孩子的原因不行吗？

@neshirst-ashuach1881
“A number equivalent to the population of Australia” is 27 million people for those of us who prefer actual numbers to Bus lengths/Everest heights/ Australian populations as units of measurement.
It’s around 22% of Japan’s current population.

“相当于澳大利亚人口的数字”是2700万人，给那些更喜欢具体的数字而不是公交车长度、珠峰高度或澳大利亚人口做单位的人参考。
这大约占日本当前人口的22%。

@ninamatthews8747
Problem in Japan is the same problem everywhere. Young people don’t want to have kids because they don’t feel financially secure. The rich are hoarding resources and it’s causing downward negative effects.

日本的问题跟全世界一样。年轻人不想生孩子，因为他们没有经济安全感。富人囤积资源，导致了负面的连锁反应。

@PDLeaks
I like how they describe the men as unattractive rather than the housing market as unattractive. Poor people can have ten babies if they have a roof and no bills.

我喜欢他们说男人没有吸引力，而不是说住房市场没有吸引力。只要有房没账单，穷人也能生十个孩子。

@cabezitadealgodon
The title of this documentary was kinda grim but the content was ironically rather inspiring. I definitely want to visit Japan now. Those elders playing rugby just touched my spirit. They looked sooo fit!

这部纪录片的标题有点阴郁，但内容反而挺鼓舞人心的。我现在真想去日本看看。那些打橄榄球的老人们打动了我，他们看起来真健康！

@LeloRetsam
The conclusion that Japan needs more immigration is obviously wrong. The problem is that everything is unaffordable nowadays, having kids is too expensive. The problem is mostly due to economics

说日本需要更多移民的结论显然不对。问题在于现在啥都贵，生孩子的成本太高。所以这主要还是经济问题。

@ТарасМакаренко-ф3ш
I saw a vlog of an Eastern European woman who married a Japanese man. They lived in Tokyo for the start, but when they decided to start a family and have kids together, Tokyo turned out to be a living nightmare in terms of prices. They eventually moved to the suburbs far to the south.

我看过一个东欧女人的vlog，她嫁了个日本人。他们最初生活东京，但决定生孩子组建家庭时，东京的物价简直就是噩梦。他们最后搬到南边远郊去了。

@pkam4106
Exactly, all recent research shows that problem is not that couples don’t want kids, is that there is much less couples. More and more young people can’t find a second half. Most governments are targeting existing couples with benefits and tax breaks, but problem (as stated in the video and here) is not there.

没错，最新的研究表明问题不是夫妇不想生孩子，而是夫妇的数量少得可怜，越来越多的年轻人找不到另一半。虽然大多数政府会给现有的夫妇提供福利和税收优惠，但问题（视频里和这儿说的）根本不在这儿。

@ThemePro24
Actually, Japan’s experience is a success story in managing decline gracefully. Unlike nations facing similar demographics (e.g., South Korea’s 0.7 fertility rate), Japan has avoided economic collapse or social chaos, offering a blueprint for others like China or Germany as their populations age.

其实，日本的经验是优雅应对人口下降的成功案例。不像其他面临类似人口结构的国家（比如韩国生育率0.7），日本避免了经济崩溃或社会混乱，为中国、德国等人口老龄化的国家提供了参考模板。

@ignitetensei01
Governments just cannot expect their citizens to increase their declining population and have children. Not only can we not take care of our families, we cannot even make enough money to support ourselves in today’s unstable economic situation. I, for example, am in my 20s and would like to have children, but for now I have to fight hard every single day to keep a roof over my head.

政府不能指望公民去增加下降的人口、去生孩子。在如今经济不稳的形势下，我们不光养不起家，连自己都赚不够钱。比如我，20多岁，我想生孩子，但现在每天得拼了命才能保住头顶的房子。

@Hans_Unique_Handle
In my opinion there are some key issues that unless resolved will not naturally increase the fertility rate:
Hope: you are bombarded with world-ending news, from climate to economic to war. Why would you want to bring children into a world where the prospect is doom and gloom. Also most young adults have seen their living standard go down as they need to work more/harder to get to a similar (relative) living standard as their parents. This is a trend, meaning you can expect your children to be worse off than you too.
Economic burden: until the last couple of decades, children were not just something you wanted (biological imperative, love, fulfillment), but also a resource for the parents. This was because (in general) the addition of another worker in the family was more than the investment (time and money) to raise the child. This has swung wildly with increasing costs and less direct benefits (child labor laws). Add in the increased cost of living, and the option to not have children thanks to birth control and more people choose not to start a family.
Social cohesion: there is less human interaction and more interaction via screens. People are further apart, making connections more difficult and finding partners less likely. Also during the years you are most likely to meet new people you are also exposed to the entire world as a potential option, meaning it is more likely to ‘wait’ for someone better.

我认为，除非解决以下关键的问题，否则生育率不会自然回升：
希望：如果你被世界末日般的新闻（从气候危机到经济困境再到战争）狂轰滥炸，谁想把孩子带到前景一片黯淡的世界？而且大多数年轻人发现生活水平在下降，得更努力工作才能达到父母那代（相对）的水平，这是个意味着你预计孩子会比你过得更差的趋势。
经济负担：过去几十年，孩子不只是你想要的（生物本能、爱、满足感），还是父母的资源。因为（通常）家庭会多一个劳动力，生孩子的回报超过养孩子的投入（时间和钱）。而现在成本暴涨，直接回报减少（童工法限制）。加上生活成本上升，避孕让不生孩子成了选项，于是更多人选择不组建家庭。
社会凝聚力：人与人面对面的互动减少，屏幕互动增多。人与人更疏远，联系更难建立，找到伴侣的可能性更低。而且在最容易认识新人的年纪，你还面对全世界潜在的对象，这意味着你更可能“等”一个更好的人。

@bentencho
People in Japan have been complaining about stagnant wages. Once the supply of labor decreases, wages will inevitably go up if employers want to attract new employees. Makes you wonder why there’s always the push for more migrants to Japan.

日本人一直在抱怨工资不涨。一旦劳动力供给减少，雇主想招新人，工资肯定得涨。这让人纳闷为啥总有人在推动日本接受更多移民。

@eri7-11
I am in Japan and in my small city babies are everywhere. I know in the big city life is tougher so less babies. But indeed there are 70-90 year olds out and about on bikes, mopeds, walking. My MIL is almost 95 and so talkative and walks fine and likes to shop at the mall. She has one hell of an appetite when I take her out for expensive eel too!

我在日本，我生活的小城市里婴儿随处可见。我知道大城市的生活更艰难，所以婴儿更少。但确实有70-90岁的老人骑自行车、电动车、走路到处跑。我的婆婆快95岁了，话多得不行，走路稳当，还爱去商场逛街。我带她吃高档鳗鱼饭时，她的胃口好得吓人！

@Akita3456
Japan’s housing market is currently very attractive to foreigners as a vacation destination, but naturalization is difficult. That could be changed. But Japan is the clean, safe Japan because it hasn’t made the immigration mistakes of other countries. I hope it stays that way.

日本的住房市场现在对外国人做度假地很有吸引力，但入籍很难，这点可以改一改。但日本之所以清洁、安全，是因为他们没有犯其他国家的移民错误，我希望能一直这样。

@dylanshane
Crazy to think Japan got so ahead of the world in tech, economy, and culture—but now they’re literally running out of people. It’s like they hit a “cultural maximum” where life got so advanced, stressful, and individual-focused that no one’s having kids anymore. What’s wild is that this isn’t just Japan… Korea, Italy, even China are heading the same way. Might be a glimpse of our future—progress leading to population decline

想想日本曾在科技、经济、文化上领先全球，现在却真的人口不够用了，这太不可思议了。就像他们达到了“文化巅峰”，生活太先进、压力太大、个人主义太强，没人想生孩子了。更疯狂的是，不只是日本……韩国、意大利，甚至中国都在走这条路。这可能是我们未来的缩影——进步将导致人口下降。

@pickler_pickler
The economic issue is not the problem. You cannot throw money at this problem. It’s purely a social one where people don’t want to get married due to lowering of the status of mothers within culture. Look at what Mongolia did to fix this issue—they raised the way mothers are seen and they’ve essentially fixed their demographic issues.

核心矛盾不在经济层面——砸钱解决不了这个问题。这纯粹是个社会文化问题：由于母亲的社会地位的下降，越来越多人不愿结婚。看看蒙古的解决之道——他们通过提升母亲的社会形象，基本解决了人口危机。

@bannol1
When most people find their aspirations crushed and they see no real future for themselves, they won’t see much point in having kids either. Most of us are living on a hamster wheel. We keep running, but remain stationary. It is only the rich who have a future whilst the middle-class is shrinking.

当大多数人发现梦想被碾碎，看不到自己的未来，他们也不会觉得生孩子有啥意义。我们大多活在仓鼠轮上，不停地跑，结果却是在原地踏步。只有富人有未来，中产阶级在缩水。

@gerbrandvisser
In 1978 I worked at the Institute of Population Problems of the Japanese Ministry of Health and Welfare as a demographer. With a Japanese colleague we researched the fertility rate in Japan and its consequences for the future. We calculated that the population would start to decline in 20 years’ time. My colleague was retired early and I was “invited” to return to Europe: our report was considered politically “unwanted”. The demographic situation can now no longer be denied. But let’s remain realistic. The environment in Japan and the rest of the world is probably better off with a smaller human population. It creates opportunities too!

1978年，我在日本厚生省人口问题研究所做人口学家，和一个日本同事研究日本生育率及其未来影响。我们算出人口将在20年后开始下降，我的同事被提前退休，而我被“请”回欧洲：我们的报告被认为在政治上“不受欢迎”。虽然现在的人口危机再也无法否认，但咱得现实点，日本和全球的环境可能因人口的减少而受益。这也带来了新的机会！

@Buran01
If you think that migration will change anything, you’re in for a big surprise... 75% of the countries in the world are below the population replacement ratio, so the crisis is global (even India is starting to lose population in the more dense areas).
What you are viewing is just capitalism in the terminal stage: focus on the earnings of the shareholders of the megacorporations, which need to increase earnings every quarter, until that stops happening. Then the only way to increase profits is cutting costs and increasing labor hours... At the end, most of the wealth is concentrated in private hands, with a few companies providing most of the goods and services, whereas most of the population ends struggling to afford housing, eating... and of course having babies. At the end, the corporations will end having very efficient factories filled with robots and A.I., ready to sell goods and services to no one, since there’s no one able to purchase anything. It’s perfect: self-destruction inflicted by greed.

如果你觉得移民能改变啥，你会大吃一惊……全球75%的国家的生育率低于世代更替率，危机是全球性的（连印度的人口密集区的人口都开始减少）。
你所目睹的正是资本主义的终局阶段：巨头公司只顾股东的利益，追逐永无止境的季度增长。当增长停滞，便只剩削减成本、压榨劳动力这唯一出路......最终，财富尽归私有，商品和服务皆由寡头垄断，而普罗大众却在为住房、温饱挣扎——更遑论生儿育女。待到那时，企业将坐拥满是机器人与AI的高效工厂，却无人消费其商品服务。多么完美的结局啊——贪婪终将导致自我毁灭。

@Kevin_40
A 2-year-old can figure this out. Stop ripping off young adults. Young adults need to be able to afford a normal life. In Japan everything is too expensive and now it’s happening around the world. Young adults are being massively ripped off and taken advantage of which leads men especially to not want to have children!

两岁的小孩都能看明白，别再坑年轻人了！年轻人得能过上正常的生活。在日本啥都贵得离谱，现在全世界都这样。年轻人被狠狠剥削、占便宜，尤其是男人，所以他们越来越不想生孩子！

@reneeturner7137
Disappointed to watch an entire video on this topic without a single mention of maternity support and childcare. The lack of社会 and government support for working mothers in Japan leaves women with a forced choice: career or kids.

令人失望的是整个视频对此话题的探讨竟只字未提育儿保障政策，日本社会与政府对职场母亲支持的缺位迫使女性面临非此即彼的残酷抉择：要么搞事业，要么生孩子。

@xporkrind
Even if we agree that Japan needs more babies, it’s hard to imagine that the government can do much to increase birth rates. It’s fascinating that it seems to be an almost worldwide phenomenon.

就算我们同意日本需要更多婴儿，也很难想象日本政府能做啥大幅提高生育率。有趣的是，这似乎几乎是个全球现象。

@micahhelles
I’m not talking about only Japan here, but globally, what it comes down to is wealth distribution. Isn’t it absurd how, as time goes by, we’ve become more and more efficient, and wealth keeps growing and growing... but fewer and fewer people are reaping the results? How come we’ve had immense technological advancements since the Baby Boom period (in whatever country you want to choose) and yet, people still have to work the same (or more) hours, and can afford way less than what people at that time could? The rich are getting richer, and the middle class everywhere is shrinking. If wealth doesn’t get redistributed, then, however much these governments wish for population growth, it is not going to happen. No living being, be it plant, animal, or human, expands their population in hostile environments for their survival.

这不仅关乎日本，更是全球性的财富分配问题。荒谬的是：随着时代发展，我们的生产效率越来越高，社会财富持续增长...但能分享成果的人却越来越少。自婴儿潮时期（任选一个国家都是如此）以来，科技突飞猛进，可人们的工作时长丝毫未减，购买力反而大不如前？富豪愈发富有，全球中产阶层却在持续萎缩。若财富分配制度不变，无论政府如何鼓励生育都将是徒劳。任何生物——无论是植物、动物还是人类——都不会在生存环境恶化时选择繁衍后代。

@vincefeld6442
You forget just how small Japan is. It doesn’t need this huge population, just let it shrink naturally. Everyone there will be more comfortable.

你忘了日本有多小。它不需要庞大人口，让它自然缩减吧。那儿的人会过得更舒坦。

@theinternational397
Interesting how nobody seems to talk about how Japan has higher birth rates than several other countries in the region. Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan all have lower birth rates than Japan.

有趣的是，没人提日本的生育率比区域内的几个国家高。韩国、新加坡、台湾（地区）的生育率都比日本低。

@NNWtu
Japan is carefully allowing immigration from China and Indonesia and other Asian countries, young educated people. Slowly but steadily, not just like Europe and the US, they choose people. Good decisions.

日本在谨慎允许来自中国、印尼和其他亚洲国家的年轻的受教育者移民，缓慢但稳定，他们不像欧美那样随便，他们会挑选移民。这是个明智的决定。

@atlasnetwork7855
It’s one of the densely populated countries on the planet. Up there with the UK. Like why would you want to grow the population? The population is declining because the population is so high than the quality of life is appalling, like the hours worked in jobs, the cost of housing in particular. There’s a lot more to a country than GDP and pensions, and until politicians get this into their heads, the population will correct to sustainable levels, and attempts to mitigate this with migration is a terrible idea because it’ll make the problems worse.

日本是地球上人口密度最高的国家之一，跟英国差不多。干嘛要增加人口？人口下降是因为人口太多，生活质量糟透了，比如工作时间长，尤其是住房成本高。一个国家不只有GDP和养老金，在政治家明白这点之前，人口会自我调整到可持续的水平，用移民缓解人口减少是个馊主意，这只会让问题更严重。

@glenmurie
Let’s be real. Japan will still have a population of tens of millions and birth rates will pick up when they reach an equilibrium. Over fifty percent of Europe died to the Black Death and right after was a period where the population in general had their wealth and freedoms increase. Not the nobility or the rich though. They had to start working, if only a little.

说实话，日本仍有几千万人口，其生育率会在达到平衡时回升。黑死病杀死了超过一半的欧洲人，之后普通人的财富和自由增加了。不过贵族和富人得开始干点活，哪怕只是一点点。

@marmarakazm7907
Your daily reminder that Japan’s birth rate is about the same as that of Eastern and Southern European countries. There must be a reason why the media writes doomsday scenarios about Japan and ignores the demographic problems of countries like Poland, Estonia, or Greece.

每日提醒：日本的生育率和东欧、南欧国家差不多。这肯定有原因，媒体为日本写末日剧本，却忽略波兰、爱沙尼亚、希腊等国家的人口问题。

@kubes8388
Japan is already a highly crowded country, and take into account robotics and automation, the population decline is not that big of a deal compared to if it happened to the US or Western country, where real productivity is way more inefficient.
You guys mainly as English YouTubers always try making these documentaries about a suppressed view, leaving out the real discussion from the group of people being reported, 20 minute has so much untrue and bias takes + statistics.

日本已经是一个高度拥挤的国家，考虑到机器人和自动化，其人口下降不像在美国或西方国家那么严重，那儿的真实生产效率低得多。
你们这些英语YouTuber总试着用压抑的视角拍摄纪录片，忽略被报道的群体的真实声音，比如这部20分钟的片子塞了太多不实和有偏见的观点+统计数据。

@Vlican
MONEY. That’s all there is to it. Solve the issues regarding cost of living and the rest will fix itself. If people can’t afford to live a normal life (what they’ve been taught in school, what their parents lived, what society promised them), then it’s obvious that they will not have children, because children are OPTIONAL, a BONUS. Give them hope, make wealth abundant, and young people will have children again.

钱，问题就这么简单。解决生活成本问题，其他的自然会好。如果人负担不起正常的生活（学校教的、父母过的、社会承诺的），他们显然不会生孩子，因为孩子是可选的，是额外的福利。给他们希望，让他们有钱，年轻人就会再愿意生孩子。

@yred3590
With medical advancements, the average person should retire in between 65-70. But, old people, even people above 50 cannot do physically exhausting blue-collar jobs. Even they cannot do some exhausting white-collar jobs. Still, they can try.

随着医学的进步，人平均应该在65-70岁退休。但老年人，甚至50岁以上的人，无法干体力消耗大的蓝领工作，一些消耗精力的白领工作他们也干不了。不过，他们还是可以试试。

@poldetson6596
When an animal overpopulates its environment, birth rates fall as an evolutionary response. Eight billion is too many. Better devise an economics that doesn’t require perpetual growth on a finite planet with finite resources.

当动物在环境中过度繁殖时，生育率会因进化反应而下降。80亿人太多了。最好设计一种不依赖有限星球上有限资源的永续增长的经济体系。