日本人口危机到达临界点

@itmeboh
It's almost like there's this radical idea that if it gets too expensive to literally live, maybe just maybe, it's not affordable to grow a family. This isn't rocket science.

这几乎就像一个激进的想法：如果连“活着”本身都变得太过昂贵，那么，也许，只是也许，组建一个家庭就成了不可负担之重。
这又不是什么高深的火箭科学。

@jelly.212
Onions comment

（回复 @itmeboh）这评论真是一针见血，让人想哭。

@kygo
Yep, and when the population declines, things will get cheaper, and then people will be able to afford to have kids again and the population will stabalise, it's not a big deal.

（回复 @itmeboh）没错，当人口下降时，物价就会变便宜，然后人们又能养得起孩子了，人口就会稳定下来。没什么大不了的。

@txquartz
​@kygo actually, things will become more expensive as the population shrinks

（回复 @kygo）实际上，随着人口萎缩，物价会变得更贵。

@AsianJayWalker
it's not corect though. populations, fertility rates were high (sometimes at their highest) through peak poverty and highly expensive times.

（回复 @itmeboh）不过这不正确。在极度贫困和物价高昂的时期，人口、生育率都很高（有时是最高的）。

@geomonabe
​@kygo nope nope. Salaries remain high when supply of labour declines, if anything it will get more expensive to live. Remember Japan doesn't have a housing shortage. They have a young people shortage.

（回复 @kygo）不不。当劳动力供应下降时，薪水会保持高位，如果说有什么变化的话，那就是生活会变得更昂贵。
记住，日本没有住房短缺，他们有的是年轻人短缺。

@hemantsarthak
​@kygo we cant say for sure, because now ecnomincs and people in general depend on cities, and in cities things getting cheaper means you are in a deflation spiral, not a place you should be or something like japan a stagnant economy, with stable housing prices.
Probably the best way would be:
Govt owned free community style housing on rent to own model with max 3 houses a person can buy based on number of children. Design them such that a couple has easy room for three children's plus parents, and has playground and daycare center built in etc.
(Preferably make it rent to lease on 100 yr transferrable leases (so people can move to other cities jobs etc, with whole family without worrying about housing as the lease get transferred to the new property), and invest the money into dividend stocks etc, and give them to the parents, while keeping 1-2% for govt yourself to invest and grow more)
Tax individual at @30% and reduce it 25 if married, and 5% more for each child born
Make 15month parental leaves madndaotry for both parents, and make companies pay extra tax if there workforce doesn't meet the 2.2 fertility rate criteria ( so they pay employees more or design policies such that employees can date and have children ) reduce tax to companies that meet the 2.2 fertility rate criteria.
Free healthcare and education till the age of 20.
Make pension and healthcare come out of individual salaries for the individual itself, something singapore style (like tax 20% more, 10% is invested for that persons retirement 5% for healthcare 5% for child house/eductation/healthcare/forced emergency savings etc) avoid the ponzy scheme like structure of the current pension systems.
I think these type of radial changes are needed for population growth and stabilization.

（回复 @kygo）这可不一定。因为现在经济和大众普遍依赖城市，而在城市里，物价下跌通常意味着通货紧缩，那可不是什么好兆头，甚至可能像日本那样，陷入经济停滞，只有房价保持稳定。
或许最好的方法是：
1.  政府提供免费的社区式住房，采用先租后买的模式，每个人最多可根据子女人数购买三套。住房设计要能轻松容纳一对夫妇、三个孩子外加双方父母，并内置游乐场和日托中心等。
2.  （最好是提供100年可转让的长期租约，这样人们可以带着全家搬到其他城市工作，而不用担心住房问题，因为租约可以转移到新房产上。政府则将（租金）收入投资于高股息股票等，并将收益分给有孩子的父母，同时自己保留1-2%用于再投资和发展。）
3.  个人所得税税率设为30%，结婚后降至25%，每生一个孩子再减免5%。
4.  强制实行15个月的父母双方育儿假。如果企业员工的生育率达不到2.2的更替标准，就对其征收额外税款（以此促使他们提高员工薪资或设计便于员工约会生子的政策），对符合标准的公司则减税。
5.  提供直到20岁的免费医疗和教育。
6.  养老金和医疗保险直接从个人薪资中为个人缴纳和储蓄，类似新加坡模式（比如多征收20%的税，其中10%投资于个人养老金，5%用于医保，5%用于子女住房/教育/医疗/强制性应急储蓄等），以避免当前养老金体系那种类似庞氏骗局的结构。
我认为，需要这类激进的变革才能实现人口的增长和稳定。

@susanaaragorn8606
Thwy will not do that becaise they only care about the finantial world having all...​@hemantsarthak

（回复 @hemantsarthak）他们不会那么做的，因为他们只关心金融界能拥有一切……

@WolfH3
​@hemantsarthak very good points

（回复 @hemantsarthak）非常好的观点。

@seriously-m1p
@hemantsarthak
Ah yes, the socialist/communist idea of anything ever being “free”.
Such a deceitful sales tactic.

（回复 @hemantsarthak）啊是的呀，（你这些都是）社会主义/共产主义关于任何东西都是“免费”的想法。
多么具有欺骗性的销售策略呀。

@lifeinhd4053
@hemantsarthak Don't have time to critique all this but will point out #1 will only encourage companies to not hire single people, and given poor job prospects is a barrier to relationships/marriage/potential children, this will only worsen the problem.

（回复 @hemantsarthak）没时间逐条评论，但要指出第一点（对已婚已育者减税）只会鼓励公司不雇佣单身人士。
鉴于糟糕的工作前景本就是建立亲密关系、结婚生子的障碍，这只会让问题雪上加霜。

@Kon420
​@hemantsarthak mostly agree except that we should have universal healthcare and free public higher education and trade. Why should there be an age cutoff?

（回复 @hemantsarthak）大部分同意，除了我们应该拥有全民医保、免费的公立高等教育和职业教育。为什么要设年龄限制呢？

@pedro_8240
@hemantsarthak Regarding point 5, isn't it like this is most places? You pension "comes from" your contributions during your work life, but since inflation, usually, exists, and the government needs to pay pensions for the current retirees, those pensions come from what YOU pay for your retirement, and your pension will come from what younger generations will pay for their retirement.
It's not realistic to expect the government to just store away the money you paid for your pension fund, while also correcting it for inflation.

（回复 @hemantsarthak）关于第五点，大多数地方不都是这样吗？
你的养老金“来自”你工作期间的缴款，但由于通货膨胀的存在，并且政府需要支付当前退休人员的养老金，所以那些养老金实际上来自“你”为自己退休所支付的钱，而“你”未来的养老金则将来自更年轻的一代为他们自己退休所支付的钱。
期望政府只是把你缴纳的养老基金原封不动地存起来，同时还为通货膨胀进行保值调整，这是不现实的啦。

@josephrobinson6171
​@kygo Not necessarily. When the population declines, there are less people making the things, and less people making specialised niche things too, and less people providing valuable services such as healthcare. Also, if a population shrinks through just not having children (so not calamities like war or plague) then there will be less working-age people compared to non-productive old retirees. Thus, the working-age people will have to produce more to support the retirees, who still consume as much as the working age people but without producing anything.

（回复 @kygo）不一定。当人口下降时，生产商品的人会减少，制造专门的小众产品的人会减少，提供像医疗保健这样有价值服务的人也会减少。
而且，如果人口仅仅因为不生孩子而萎缩（而非战争或瘟疫等灾难），那么劳动年龄人口相对于不事生产的老年退休人员就会更少。
因此，劳动年龄的人必须生产更多来供养退休人员，而退休人员的消费水平与劳动年龄的人相当，却不产生任何价值。

@eneseren25
​@kygo that works not like that the big cities will be more expensive and the rural areas emptier and poorer.

（回复 @kygo）事情不是那样运作的。大城市会变得更昂贵，而农村地区会更空旷、更贫穷。

@AnOnlineDweller
​@kygo The problem is that it can lead to short-term economic turbulence since there won't be enough workers. And more importantly, millions of elders will be left without care

（回复 @kygo）问题在于，这可能导致短期的经济动荡，因为没有足够的工人。
更重要的是，数以百万计的老人将无人照料。

@lembitmoislane.
@kygo That’s incorrect. Large populations encourage mass production, which cheapens prices. By having a dying population the production will go down and hence priced will rise. This means that ironically not having kids because of a poor quality of life will only make life less affordable.

（回复 @kygo）那是不对的。庞大的人口能促进大规模生产，从而降低价格。
人口萎缩会导致生产下降，因此价格会上涨。
这意味着，具有讽刺意味的是，因为生活质量差而不生孩子，只会让生活变得更难以负担。

@kygo
​@lembitmoislane. People aren't having kids because clothing is too expensive... It's because they are forced to live in tiny little apartments that cost a fortune instead of having space in a larger property for much lower costs. Sure consumables might get a bit more expensive (although it won't, most stuff is mass produced using robots now). But the big things in life, ie accomodation, will get cheaper

（回复 @lembitmoislane.）人们不生孩子不是因为衣服太贵……而是因为他们被迫住在花费不菲的狭小公寓里，而不是能以低得多的成本在更宽敞的房子里拥有空间。
当然，消费品可能会变得贵一点（尽管大概率不会，现在大多数东西都是用机器人大规模生产的）。
但生活中的大头开销，即住房，会变得更便宜。

@momo99123
​@kygo it absolutely is a huge deal, what about those that want to have children but cant cause of cost of living, what a crap situation to be in, causing severe human misery

（回复 @kygo）这绝对是件大事。那些想生孩子但因为生活成本而不能生的人怎么办？
这真是个糟糕的处境，造成了这么多严重的人间痛苦。

@Bandoolero
​@kygo property will not get cheaper, since rich people are buying it up

（回复 @kygo）房产不会变便宜的，因为富人正在抢购。

@kygo
​@Bandoolero In a falling population, property demands go down, rents go down, property values will go down, it's simple economics. It's already happening in the rural areas in Japan.

（回复 @Bandoolero）在人口下降的情况下，房产需求会下降，租金会下降，房产价值也会随之下降，这是简单的经济学原理。这种情况在日本的农村地区已经发生了。

@Bandoolero
@kygo if the average wage population was driving up property prices, then your reasoning would be sound. Unfortunately, in today's age unequal society, average wage earners can't even buy homes, but wealthy individuals and investment funds buy these up by the thousands. They are the real culprit behind the price hikes.

（回复 @kygo）如果平均工资水平的人口是推高房价的主力，那么你的推理就成立了。
不幸的是，在当今这个不平等的社会，拿平均工资的人甚至买不起房，反而是富有的个人和投资基金在成千上万地抢购这些房产。
他们才是房价上涨的真正罪魁祸首。

@cwood316
​@kygo it won't though. It will get more expensive. You will have a smaller workforce paying more tax to meet the needs of an aging population. Yes, houses will get cheaper in less urban areas but the workforce will consolidate more around major cities and therefore driving up property values in urban areas. Japan is a literal case study of this.
What is really needed is a small, sustainable population growth. Something that's impossible for any country to engineer.

（回复 @kygo）但并不会（变便宜），反而会变得更贵。
你将面临一个更小的劳动力群体，却要支付更多的税来满足老龄化人口的需求。
是的，非城市地区的房价可能会变便宜，但劳动力会更多地向主要城市集中，从而推高城市地区的房产价值。
日本就是一个活生生的案例。
真正需要的是小规模、可持续的人口增长，而这是任何国家都无法人为设计出来的。

@anonymousman2521
​@kygo with declining population, production will also decline.

（回复 @kygo）随着人口下降，生产力也会下降。

@Chris-w9f
@kygo why would things get cheaper? As the population ages, income would actually get lower because more of your work is supporting the elderly

（回复 @kygo）为什么物价会变便宜？随着人口老龄化，（劳动人口的）收入实际上会降低，因为你更多的劳动成果是用来供养老年人了。

@DubberOne1
@kygo But the population doesn't really decline. They just import people from different cultures and erode their own slowly, but painfully. It's actually a big deal. Just look at europe.

（回复 @kygo）但人口并没真正下降。他们只是从不同文化背景的国家引进人口，然后缓慢而痛苦地侵蚀自己的文化。
这实际上是件大事，看看欧洲就知道了。

@UpNorthCatsFan
@kygo not a big deal for you and me, but in capitalism eyes that’s a gigantic deal, if quotas can’t be hit the sky is falling. Or at least that’s it’s made out to feel like

（回复 @kygo）对你我来说可能不是大事，但在资本主义的眼中，这可是天大的事。
如果（增长）指标达不到，天就要塌下来了。
或者至少，它被塑造成了那种感觉。

@joyboyboy5149
@kygo lol you must be American..

（回复 @kygo）哈哈，你肯定是美国人……

@juaquiqui-kun4333
@kygo me when I’m brain dead with no brain cells

（回复 @kygo）这就是我大脑死亡、一个脑细胞都不剩时的样子。

@bustoguf
​@kygo that's not how it works

（回复 @kygo）事情不是那样运作的。

@marvin2678
@kygo that literally doesnt happen

（回复 @kygo）那种情况根本不会发生。

@pa1agyemankwadwoafriyie895
@kygo That may not necessarily be so. Fewer people means few production, which can lead to a recession and if sustained, ultimately a depression and thats really really bad. Last time it happened the world needed a world war to bail it out

（回复 @kygo）那不一定。人少意味着生产力下降，这可能导致经济衰退，如果持续下去，最终会导致大萧条，那真的非常非常糟糕。上一次发生这种情况时，世界需要一场世界大战来摆脱困境。

@klatonb
@kygo it takes 3 workers to fund one pensioners retired life

（回复 @kygo）需要3个在职人员才能供养一个退休人员的退休生活。

@bokunogentoo4420
The problem is more that everyone's overworked. Both in Japan and China it's normal to be stuck doing 11 hour shifts, it's less that there's no money to start a family and more that there's no time to start one.

（回复 @itmeboh）问题更多在于每个人都过度劳累。
在日本和中国，每天工作11个小时是家常便饭。
与其说是没钱组建家庭，不如说是根本没时间。

@kairos_fluent
@bokunogentoo4420 But nations like Italy, Spain and Greece value leisure and are not overworked but they're in the same boat as Japan

（回复 @bokunogentoo4420）但像意大利、西班牙和希腊这样的国家很重视休闲，并不过度劳累，可他们跟日本还不是一样面临这个问题。

@markfreeman4727
@bokunogentoo4420 combination of both i think. Problems rarely come at you alone

（回复 @bokunogentoo4420）我认为是两者兼而有之。问题很少会单独出现。

@10secondsrule
@bokunogentoo4420 this is the key that’s overlooked by most.

（回复 @bokunogentoo4420）这是大多数人都忽略了的关键。

@alo754
Kind of a self-correction by nature.

（回复 @itmeboh）某种程度上，这是大自然的自我修正。

@pjell
The old guy had it absolutely correct. If people have hope for the future, they have children. No hope means no children.

（回复 @itmeboh）那位老先生说得完全正确。
如果人们对未来抱有希望，他们就会生孩子；没有希望，就意味着没有孩子。

@mkkrupp2462
@pjell People might not be too worried the future if their main concern is how to live well in the present.

（回复 @pjell）如果人们主要关心的是如何在当下过得好，他们可能就不会太担心未来。

@michaelrhodes73
Except for a 20-year window in 300,000 years of us being here, it has always been too expensive for all but a few to thrive.

（回复 @itmeboh）除了在我们存在于此的30万年历史长河中，有过一个短暂的20年窗口期，在其他所有时间里，对绝大多数人来说，“繁荣”一直都是过于昂贵的奢侈品。

@Hans_Unique_Handle
@michaelrhodes73 Difference being was that for those 300,000 years children were a net benefit to their parents as either workforce or carers. This meant having more children actually made you able to produce more and get taken care of when you got older. Nowadays children are a net cost for their parents as they only require resources and the benefit of being taken care of is obfuscated due to this being a collective thing (government pensions and healthcare).

（回复 @michaelrhodes73）不同之处在于，在那30万年里，孩子对父母来说是净收益，他们既是劳动力，也是养老的依靠。
这意味着生更多的孩子，实际上能让你创造更多价值，并在年老时得到照顾。
而如今，孩子对父母来说是净成本，因为他们只消耗资源，而（父母）年老时被照顾的好处，因为变成了政府养老金和医疗保健这种集体承担的事情，而被模糊化了。

@thenameisblu
​@michaelrhodes73 Not even then, really. But that's not really the most productive way at looking at things anyway. Is it bad to set goals?

（回复 @michaelrhodes73）其实，即使在那个时候也不是。但无论如何，那都不是看待事物最有效的方式。设定目标是坏事吗？

@aliveandwell3958
@michaelrhodes73 Said by someone that doesn’t know how much it cost to live.

（回复 @michaelrhodes73）这是一个不知道生活成本有多高的人说的话。

@Seriously-m1p
@michaelrhodes73
Along with “richer” comes a higher cost

（回复 @michaelrhodes73）伴随“更富裕”而来的是更高的成本。

@michaelrhodes73
Higher income is indirectly responsible for the low birth rates. The world has never been richer on average and birth rates have never been lower on average.

（回复 @itmeboh）更高的收入间接导致了低出生率。从平均水平来看，世界从未如此富裕，出生率也从未如此之低。

@offensivearch
@michaelrhodes73 Correlation isn't causation.

（回复 @michaelrhodes73）相关性可不等于因果关系。

@michaelrhodes73
@offensivearch You cannot have causation when there isn't even correlation.

（回复 @offensivearch）当连相关性都没有时，你更不可能有因果关系。

@theArun3435
Why economically poor countries have more children?

（回复 @itmeboh）为什么经济贫困的国家孩子更多？

@seriousle-m1p
@theArun3435
Because they don’t have a 90 flat screen for entertainment.

（回复 @theArun3435）因为他们没有90英寸的平板电视作为娱乐。

@mkkrupp2462
@theArun3435 The old culture persists. Also reliable contraception might be harder to obtain - geographically or expense wise.

（回复 @theArun3435）传统的旧文化（残余）依然存在。另外，可靠的避孕措施可能更难获得——无论是地理上还是费用上。

@manofyourdreams129
​@theArun3435 because they dont have the same requirements we have as parents. You can easily get your kid taken away and you have to check in the hospital to see if everything is all right. In poor countires they can sell their kids and not be arrested

（回复 @theArun3435）因为他们没有我们作为父母所面临的同样要求。
你（在发达国家）很容易就会因为各种原因被（福利机构）带走孩子，你必须去医院检查以确保一切正常。
而在贫穷国家，他们甚至可以卖掉自己的孩子而不会被逮捕。

@kelthuzad4634
@theArun3435 they are not taxed to death and also a lot of them are giving foreign aid

（回复 @theArun3435）他们没有被税收压得喘不过气来，而且他们中的许多人还在接受外国援助。

@Seriously-m1p
@theArun3435
Because they don’t have a 90 flat screen for entertainment.

（回复 @theArun3435）因为他们没有90英寸的平板电视作为娱乐。

@importantbaat
​@theArun3435 Because poor have not experienced a good life and trapped in traditions, society. In India also the rich have 1 or 2 kids only.

（回复 @theArun3435）因为穷人没有体验过好生活，并且被传统和社会所束缚。
在印度，富人也只生1到2个孩子。

@kovy689
@theArun3435 Because of poor planning and education…

（回复 @theArun3435）因为糟糕的规划和教育……

@JayBee730
@theArun3435 less access to healthcare and education.

（回复 @theArun3435）更少的医疗保健和教育机会。

@leanordials8008
​@theArun3435, those people don't care about their children.

（回复 @theArun3435）那些人不关心他们的孩子。

@souslesbombes
Things are not "too expensive". People did not have iphones, did not travel by plane each year, did not go to the restaurant once a week 40 years ago. 

（回复 @itmeboh）东西并非“太贵”啊。
40年前，人们没有iPhone，不会每年乘飞机旅行，也不会每周去一次餐馆。

@mkkrupp2462
@souslesbombes But younger people do not want to give up their iPhones , internet and subscxtion services, entertainment and occasional dining out. (Not to mention cars, health insurance, student debt repayments etc). And I don’t blame them. These things are embedded features of modern life. Who wants to go back to life 40 or more years ago? In any case, with the long working hours in Japan and China, young people hardly have time for the intensive work of child rearing.

（回复 @souslesbombes）但是现在的年轻人不想放弃他们的iPhone、互联网和各种订阅服务、娱乐和偶尔外出就餐。（更不用说汽车、健康保险、学生贷款等了）。
我也不怪他们，这些东西是现代生活不可或缺的一部分。谁想回到40年或更久以前的生活？
无论如何，在日本和中国，工作时间那么长，年轻人几乎没有时间去从事抚养孩子这种耗费精力的工作。

@JohnDoe-gc1pm
Crap that isnt important is cheap, compared to the essentials. Not buying 10 coffees could pay your rent. Now cutting coffee out barely makes a dent in rent. ​@souslesbombes

（回复 @souslesbombes）与生活必需品相比，那些不重要的垃圾东西是很便宜。
以前，不买10杯咖啡省下的钱可能就够付房租了。
现在，戒掉咖啡对房租来说几乎是杯水车薪。

@CupaTwiningS
​@souslesbombes 40 years ago, you made a living wage. And worked a 40 hr work week. On top of that we have spent the last 40 years telling people not to have kids unless you can afford them.

（回复 @souslesbombes）40年前，你的工资能维持生活，而且每周只工作40小时。
最重要的是，过去40年里，我们一直在告诉人们，除非你养得起，否则就别生孩子。

@HarryFlashmanVC
​@souslesbombes This kind of “young people just buy iPhones” argument is lazy, out-of-touch, and frankly insulting.
Housing isn’t unaffordable because 30-year-olds are buying lattes it’s unaffordable because decades of bad policy inflated asset prices, restricted supply, and encouraged landlords to hoard homes as investments. You can skip every holiday and cook beans every night and still not afford a deposit in most UK cities.
Blaming young people for a collapsing birth rate while denying them economic security, affordable housing, and any sense of a hopeful future isn’t just hypocritical it’s gaslighting on a national scale.
We didn’t get here because of iPhones. We got here because the people in charge turned homes into hedge fund assets and then told the next generation it was their fault for not working hard enough.

（回复 @souslesbombes）这种“年轻人只会买iPhone”的论调，既懒惰又脱离现实，坦率地说，还很侮辱人。
住房之所以变得难以负担，不是因为30岁的人在买拿铁咖啡，而是因为几十年来糟糕的政策导致资产价格膨胀、供应受限，并鼓励房东将房屋作为投资品来囤积。
你可以放弃每个假期，每晚都只吃豆子，但在大多数英国城市，你依然付不起首付。
在剥夺年轻人的经济保障、可负担的住房和任何对未来的希望感的同时，还将出生率崩溃归咎于他们，这不仅是虚伪，更是全国范围内的精神操控。
我们走到今天这一步不是因为iPhone。
我们之所以如此，是因为当权者把房子变成了对冲基金的资产，然后反过来告诉下一代，这是因为他们自己不够努力。

@Seriously-m1p
@souslesbombes BOOOM! Truth bomb

（回复 @souslesbombes）砰！真相炸弹。

@Seriously-m1p
@souslesbombes the only thing you forgot is Starbucks for the incredibly expensive conspicuous consumption large latte every morning.

（回复 @souslesbombes）你唯一忘了提的是星巴克，为了每天早上那杯贵得离谱、用于炫耀性消费的大杯拿铁。

@DK-cs2yl
@souslesbombes today’s economy vs 40 years ago.

（回复 @souslesbombes）今天的经济 vs 40年前。

@duketogo2616
​@souslesbombes Spoken like someone that hasn't looked at the cost of education, medicine, food, child care, transportation, or housing since the Reagan administration.

（回复 @souslesbombes）说得好像你自从里根政府时代以来，就没再看过教育、医疗、食品、托儿、交通或住房的成本一样。

@asmodiusjones9563
@souslesbombes 40 years ago people could buy houses and live in them. Now, even on two incomes, the average person cannot buy a home.

（回复 @souslesbombes）40年前人们可以买房子住在里面。现在，即使有两份收入，普通人也买不起房。

@EgotisticalDSO
That's part of it, but not the whole ballgame. Yes, money is tight and that has definitely had a negative effect on having children, but married couples have been having basically the same amount of kids they always have. The problem is that fewer people than ever have been getting married, and this issue has a surprising culprit: the smartphone. Recent studies have found that smartphones have been helping fuel political polarization, which affects men and women differently- men becoming more conservative and women becoming more liberal. This has had an extremely negative effect on relationship formation, and consequently marriages, which in turn has resulted in an extremely negative effect on population growth. Banning the smartphone would almost certainly have a greater effect on population decline than implementing a UBI.

（回复 @itmeboh）那是其中一部分，但不是全部。是的，钱很紧张，那确实对生孩子产生了负面影响，但已婚夫妇生的孩子数量基本上和以前一样。
问题在于结婚的人比以往任何时候都少，而这个问题有一个令人惊讶的罪魁祸首：智能手机。
最近的研究发现，智能手机助长了政治两极分化，这对男性和女性的影响不同——男性变得更保守，女性变得更自由。
这对关系形成产生了极其负面的影响，从而影响了婚姻，进而对人口增长产生了极其负面的影响。
禁止智能手机对人口下降的影响几乎肯定比实施全民基本收入要大。

@offensivearch
There is no fertility crisis in Taliban controlled Afghanistan. If you make Afghanistan rich, their fertility rate may go down but it won't go down below replacement.
Do you think it's harder to survive in America or Afghanistan? This isn't an economic issue, it's a cultural one.

（回复 @itmeboh）在塔利班控制的阿富汗没有生育危机。
如果你让阿富汗富裕起来，他们的生育率可能会下降，但不会降到更替水平以下。
你认为在美国还是阿富汗生存更难？
这不是经济问题，是文化问题。

@sabsain2399
​@offensivearch can you explain how exactly it's harder for the average person in Afghanistan to survive than one in the US?

（回复 @offensivearch）你能确切解释一下阿富汗的普通人比美国的普通人生存更难在哪些方面吗？

@Retotion
It’s not radical, it’s a common and very wrong idea. People now are richer than at any point in human history, there has never been a more affordable time to have children. People just don’t want them.

（回复 @itmeboh）这不激进，这是一个普遍且非常错误的想法。
现在的人比人类历史上任何时候都富有，从未有过比现在更负担得起生孩子的时候。
人们只是不想要孩子。

@roberthiggins8234
this isnt true though. Its not more expensive to 'live' now days. Its just that we have so much more options when it comes to spending our money.
Holidays are cheaper, entertainment is cheaper, cars are cheaper, clothe are cheaper. Houses are more expensive...which isnt a problem on its own, but the fact is people are now choosing the holiday/entertainment/cars/clothe/other cheap 'crap' instead of the house.

（回复 @itmeboh）不过这不正确。现在“生活”并不更贵。只是我们在花钱方面有了更多的选择。
假期更便宜了，娱乐更便宜了，汽车更便宜了，衣服更便宜了。房子更贵了……
这本身不是问题，但事实是人们现在选择假期/娱乐/汽车/衣服/其他便宜的“垃圾”，而不是房子。

@roberthiggins8234
@theArun3435 This is a great point. Its not 'too expensive' that everyone keeps bringing up. Its that alternatives to a family are much cheaper. That is there is an actual 'alternative' lifestyle to having children that is exciting/fun/potentially fulfilling. Holiday/partying etc etc is so cheap compared to starting a family/buying a house/being responsible. So people are choosing the easier more exciting lifestyle.

（回复 @theArun3435）这是一个很好的观点。问题不在于每个人都在提的“太贵了”，而在于家庭生活之外的替代选择要便宜得多。
也就是说，除了生孩子，还有一种实际的“替代”生活方式，那是令人兴奋、有趣、且可能充实的。
与组建家庭、买房、承担责任相比，度假、聚会等等实在是太便宜了。
所以人们选择了更轻松、更刺激的生活方式。

@DhaadaneBuuni-b2s
@theArun3435 You are getting closer to understanding the root of the problem, which is that people have become selfish and are not willing to make sacrifices.

（回复 @theArun3435）你正在接近理解问题的根源，那就是人们变得自私，不愿意做出牺牲。

@nieko3038
@whiteberry8785 There were more generations than the boomers lol.
People used to have a lot of children so when some didn’t make it there were other children to take care of their parents when they got old.
Here in the Netherlands there were houses made of dirt end of 19th century.
World didn’t start after 1945.

（回复 @whiteberry8785）除了婴儿潮一代，历史上还有更多代人呢，哈哈。
以前人们生很多孩子，所以当一些孩子没能活下来时，还有其他孩子能在他们年老时照顾他们。
在荷兰这里，19世纪末还有泥土造的房子。
世界不是从1945年后才开始的。

@brodeize
Japan has an average of 26 hours working week. Why you lying ?

（回复 @itmeboh）日本平均每周工作26小时。你为什么撒谎？

@KWG-001
@brodeize Way to look at a number and not think about why it is that low.
This number factors in part-time employment and gig employment. Full-time workers in Japan are only just now trying to fix the over-working culture of their nation. Also those part-timers often work multiple jobs which lowers that number even more as they don't factor in a person's time spent each day working, only the hours worked at each shift.

（回复 @brodeize）你这是只看数字，却不去思考为什么它那么低。
这个数字把兼职和零工都算了进去。
日本的全职工人现在才刚刚开始尝试纠正他们国家那种过度工作的文化。
而且那些兼职者通常打好几份工，这进一步拉低了那个平均数，因为统计时不计算一个人每天总共工作了多长时间，只计算每份工作的工时。

@YaSunny0409
Besides high living cost that discourages young people from having children, there is also a culture change. When the culture was to have many kids, even poor people living in mud house had many children. Now young people don’t want to have kids in undesirable conditions and/or lower their own living standards and fun time to raise kids.
Meanwhile, no need to having kids as retirement plan greatly reduced the need to have kids.

（回复 @itmeboh）除了高昂的生活成本阻碍年轻人要孩子，还有文化上的变迁。当主流文化是多子多福时，即使是住在土坯房里的穷人也会生很多孩子。
而现在，年轻人不愿在不理想的条件下生育，和/或为了抚养孩子而降低自己的生活水平、牺牲自己的娱乐时间。
与此同时，不再需要“养儿防老”，也大大降低了生孩子的必要性。

@dreamcatcher75418
It’s hard to raise children in a duel income household.

（回复 @itmeboh）在双收入家庭中抚养孩子很困难。

@foyfy9visogicjtzhoiuxhtf
I dont think its more affordable in somalia afghanistan like countries

（回复 @itmeboh）我不认为在索马里、阿富汗这样的国家生活更负担得起。

@Sothisishowitis
It seems there is a correlation between credit culture vs beliefs & values. How those effect population I don't exactly know.

（回复 @itmeboh）似乎在信贷文化与信仰和价值观之间存在某种关联。至于它们究竟如何影响人口，我不太清楚。

@dajusta87
Wealthy people have less kids than poor people do. Historically, it's been like that. Affordability isn't the problem.

（回复 @itmeboh）富人比穷人的孩子少。从历史上看，一直如此。问题不在于负担能力。

@markfreeman4727
poor people have more kids hoping at least one of them survives to adult hood

（回复 @dajusta87）穷人生更多孩子是希望至少有一个能活到成年。

@bluz1864
I can only speak for myself but I remember growing up and being told not to have kids if I can't afford to have them.
Well, I'm now 31 and only now considering having a child because money is finally "okay" (not good but okay)

（回复 @itmeboh）我只能代表我自己说话，但我记得我从小就被告知如果养不起就不要生孩子。
嗯，我现在31岁了，直到现在才考虑要孩子，因为钱终于“还行”了（不是很好但还行）。

@geofflewis8599
key issue is the cost of housing. my view is that the Govt should provide an apartment for free for married couples between the ages of 18 and 38yrs, without criminal records. These couples can not sell these apartments for 10 years. In return they can not claim superannuation.

（回复 @itmeboh）关键问题是住房成本。我的观点是，政府应该为18至38岁之间、无犯罪记录的已婚夫妇免费提供一套公寓。
这些夫妇在10年内不能出售这些公寓。
作为回报，他们不能领取养老金。

@ArtificialGamingIntelligence
The data shows the exact opposite conclusion. Both between and within countries, birth rates are heavily inversely correlated with disposable income and wealth.

（回复 @itmeboh）数据显示出完全相反的结论。
无论是在国家之间还是在国家内部，出生率都与可支配收入和财富呈显著的负相关。

@feldspar230
Fertility (or really lack thereof) is correlated with education level. Income is not. The real issue is the dramatic reduction in the number of women with only a high education or less, as they have historically had the most babies. 30+ year old career women have as many babies today as they did 30 years ago. but they're a lot more of them now than before. This is a triumph for women's liberation of course. But the impact on fertility is a problem at an aggregate, population level.

（回复 @itmeboh）生育率（或者说缺乏生育率）与教育水平相关，与收入无关。
真正的问题是仅有高中或更低学历的女性数量急剧减少，而她们在历史上生的孩子最多。
30多岁的职业女性今天生的孩子和30年前一样多，但现在她们的人数比以前多得多。
这当然是女性解放的胜利。
但在总体人口层面上，对生育率的影响是一个问题。

@Nnnoorssz
One kid option should still be there...atleast...if not 2.

（回复 @itmeboh）至少应该还有一个孩子的选项……如果不能有两个的话。

@chrisburn7178
​​@souslesbombes Missed the point. It's not the iPhones, it's basic necessaries like a house, or childcare. The cost of rents or mortgages relative to income far, far outstrips levels that the boomer generation had. Nobody spends most of their income each month on an iPhone, yet most people end up doing just that on their rent.

（回复 @souslesbombes）没抓住重点。不是iPhone的问题，是像房子或托儿这样的基本必需品。
相对于收入的租金或抵押贷款成本，远远超过了婴儿潮一代的水平。
没有人每个月把大部分收入花在iPhone上，但大多数人最终却在房租上这么做了。

@stephanfouche9208
This is only partially correct. The heart of the problem is how modern culture interacts with female nature. Women tend to pick partners based on status. Women will generally not pick a man that is lower in status, so lower income or less attractive or shorter or whatever. As women earn more in a modern society the number of eligible partners decrease from a female dating perspective

（回复 @itmeboh）这只部分正确。问题的核心在于现代文化如何与女性天性互动。女性倾向于根据地位挑选伴侣。女性通常不会选择地位较低的男性，比如收入较低、吸引力较小、较矮等等。随着女性在现代社会中收入增加，从女性约会的角度看，合格伴侣的数量会减少。

@Nnnoorssz
@stephanfouche9208
Thats not true..everyone s not gold digger..men are not seeious

（回复 @stephanfouche9208）那不正确……不是每个人都是拜金女……是男人不认真。

@stephanfouche9208
@Nnnoorssz I didn't even mention "gold digging" brightspark. My comment was referring to the observable trend of women dating "up" so to speak. As women become more financially successful their dating pool shrinks, it's not rocket science

（回复 @Nnnoorssz）我甚至没提“拜金”……
我的评论指的是女性“向上”约会的明显趋势。
随着女性在经济上越来越成功，她们的约会对象范围会缩小，这不是什么高深的科学。

@hemantsarthak
​@lifeinhd4053 i dont think so, like companies the end of the day still need people and this incentives the people that even if they don't have a job, they should still get married to improve their job prospects like job is aspect because money is needed to take care etc housing etc if you already have those then marrying and kids become less risky, and instead become a bonus for more jobs.

（回复 @lifeinhd4053）我不这么认为，比如公司归根结底还是需要人，这激励了人们即使没有工作，也应该结婚以改善他们的工作前景，因为工作是一个方面，因为需要钱来照顾家庭、住房等，如果你已经有了这些，那么结婚生子风险就变小了，反而成为获得更多工作的加分项。

@kookthekid8338
This is completely wrong, people have never had more money and better lives, especially in places with extremely low birth rates. It’s actually proven that as quality of life increases, the birth rate decreases. The reason people don’t have kids is because in these societies, birth control is more available, there’s more to life besides working and raising a family, and the style of the work day has completely changed. You don’t want 20 kids to work on your farm now, because you live in an apartment working a corporate job and go out drinking every few days.

（回复 @itmeboh）这完全是错的，人们从未有过更多的钱和更好的生活，尤其是在出生率极低的地方。
实际上已经证明，随着生活质量的提高，出生率会下降。
人们不要孩子的原因是，在这些社会中，避孕措施更容易获得，除了工作和养家之外，生活还有更多内容，而且工作日的风格也完全改变了。
你现在不想要20个孩子在你的农场工作，因为你住在公寓里，做着公司的工作，每隔几天就出去喝酒。

@Francis-f4f
"It's almost like there's this radical idea that if it gets too expensive to literally live, maybe just maybe, it's not affordable to grow a family. " It's perfectly affordable to grow a family, if couple in Niger can afford to have up to 7 children I am pretty sure that in Japan couples they can afford to have 2.

（回复 @itmeboh）“这几乎就像有一个激进的想法，如果生活本身变得太昂贵，也许，只是也许，养家糊口就负担不起了。”
养家糊口是完全负担得起的，如果尼日尔的夫妇能负担得起生多达7个孩子，我很确定在日本的夫妇他们能负担得起生2个。

@EricShingles-p6q
​@Francis-f4f no, it's no where near the same

（回复 @Francis-f4f）不，这根本不一样。

@Francis-f4f
@EricShingles-p6q This is not a rebuttal of my point although you are right when you say " it's no where near the same" in the sense that couples in Japan have it a lot better which only serves to further prove my point.

（回复 @EricShingles-p6q）这并未反驳我的观点，尽管你说“根本不一样”是对的，意思是日本的夫妇过得好得多，这恰恰进一步证明了我的观点。

@MrMorlow
​@kygo that's wishful thinking. More Than enough economists have debunked that idea already.

（回复 @kygo）那是一厢情愿。已经有足够多的经济学家揭穿了那个想法。

@blacksaiyan64
​@AnOnlineDweller so what?

（回复 @AnOnlineDweller）那又怎样？

@gothicgolem2947
Except poor countries often have big birth rates

除了贫穷国家通常出生率很高。

@pa1agyemankwadwoafriyie895
@kygo That may not necessarily be so. Fewer people means few production, which can lead to a recession and if sustained, ultimately a depression and thats really really bad. Last time it happened the world needed a world war to bail it out

（回复 @kygo）那不一定。人少意味着生产少，这可能导致衰退，如果持续下去，最终会导致萧条，那真的非常非常糟糕。上次发生这种情况时，世界需要一场世界大战来解救。

@6lue5kies
This is one of the main reasons why I'm nearly 40 and still haven't gotten married and had children even though I've longed for a stable marriage and to give everything for a couple children to experience the entire rearing phase of a normal adult life. The whole world needs to switch back to this or we're in for a whole lot of hurt.

这是我年近40岁仍未结婚生子的主要原因之一，尽管我一直渴望稳定的婚姻，并为一两个孩子付出一切，让他们体验正常成年生活的整个抚养阶段。
整个世界都需要回到这种状态，否则我们将遭受巨大的痛苦。

@thedorkone1516
Not to mention how absolutely INSANE Japan's work culture is. It's a little hard to FIND someone to marry and have children with if you never have time for anything but working.

更不用说日本的工作文化是多么的疯狂。
如果你除了工作什么时间都没有，那就很难找到人结婚生子。

@kyle6781
I think we could almost call it afact that a 19-22yr old today male or female are much less mature than past generations have been.. and actually id say its due to theae dam phones and social media... we legitimately have women ages 25-40 doijg cringey poses on instagram for the sole purpose that strangers, COMPLETE STRANGERS hit the like button or comment on their post to validate what they think about themselves. Im 34yrs old, i look around in real life and online and noticed all the "men" from 18-25ish act like teenagers. Me and everyone i knew at those ages didnt act like teenagers. When i was 23 i wasnt going around doing dumb pranks on people, we did that whej we were 15.. there are so many examples, or maybe i truelt am getting old but what i see from these young adults is scary. They act like how we did when we were teenagers. And look at alot of people ad their kids, they dont want to parent, they want a lil mimi me to be their bestfriends and so their parenting sucks. I could be totaly wrong, i dont think i am though​

我想我们几乎可以称之为一个事实，即今天19-22岁的男性或女性比过去几代人要不成熟得多……
实际上我会说这是因为这些该死的手机和社交媒体……
我们确实有25-40岁的女性在Instagram上摆出尴尬的姿势，其唯一目的就是让陌生人，完全的陌生人，点赞或评论她们的帖子，以验证她们对自己的看法。
我34岁了，我在现实生活和网络上环顾四周，注意到所有18-25岁左右的“男人”都像青少年一样行事。
我和我认识的那些年龄段的人都不像青少年那样行事。
我23岁时，我不会到处对人搞愚蠢的恶作剧，我们15岁时才那么做……
有很多例子，或者也许我真的老了，但我从这些年轻人身上看到的东西很可怕。
他们的行为就像我们青少年时期的样子。再看看很多人和他们的孩子，他们不想当父母，他们想要一个小小的迷你版自己当他们最好的朋友，所以他们的育儿方式很糟糕。
我可能完全错了吧，但我不这么认为。

@kimmogensen4888
The climate change policy's which the video tries to remind you about is very important for the media is on of the reson for the high cost of living, and 25 years ago the end of the world was population growth maybe if we stop with the alarmist thinking and start to give young people more help and a chance to get a good job instead of favoring older people, I don't know the reason why they have high housing prices in Japan they must not have built enough homes or they have been doing very bad urbane planing, in many badly governd western countries high housing cost is often mostly because of huge migration but Japan doesn't have that, moving education, business, government institutions away from large cities is and decentralization, Denmark support families massively economicly and time to take care of the children, it's seems like a lot of country's are not even trying to change it

视频试图提醒你的气候变化政策，对媒体来说非常重要，是高生活成本的原因之一。
25年前，“世界末日”的论调是人口增长，也许如果我们停止这种危言耸听的想法，开始给年轻人更多帮助和获得好工作的机会，而不是偏袒老年人（情况会好些）。
我不知道为什么日本的房价那么高，他们一定是没有建足够的房子，或者他们的城市规划做得非常糟糕。
在许多治理不善的西方国家，高昂的住房成本通常主要是因为大规模移民，但日本没有这个问题。
将教育、商业、政府机构迁出大城市是去中心化的做法。
丹麦在经济上大力支持家庭，并给予时间照顾孩子。
似乎很多国家甚至没有尝试去改变它。

@rabidlorax1650
that doesnt check out though when cost of living is quite low in Japan compared to other developed countries that have higher birth rates, also well to do Japanese people are not having enough kids either.

不过这说不通，因为与出生率较高的其他发达国家相比，日本的生活成本相当低，而且富裕的日本人也没有生足够多的孩子。

@CorneliusTaylor-s1u
It's not really a matter of cost. Many young people today don't wanna have children nor get married.

这其实不是成本问题。如今许多年轻人既不想要孩子也不想结婚。

@sternleiche
It is a time issue

这是个时间问题。

@0verride881
It's almost as if there's this radical idea that bringing women into the workforce was the dumbest idea every country that got rich did. This isn't rocket science.
Children aren't expensive, women with an opinion are .

这几乎就像有一个激进的想法，让女性进入劳动力市场是每个富裕国家所做的最愚蠢的想法。这不是什么高深的科学。
孩子不贵，有主见的女人才贵。

@CB-sf9mx
Its more than that. the cost of living in japan is incredibly low compared to UK or US

不仅如此。与英国或美国相比，日本的生活成本非常低。

@dennisjajablubb9984
I dont think that its that easy. You have to take into account the long hours they work and that it is expected that both parents work (like in many 1st world countrys), so it seems impossible to have time for kids. Also it gets harder to meet people, because many reasons (internet usage, the work hours etc.). Another reason seems to be that people are fed up by capitalism, they draw their life fullfilment from consuming and the overall availability of things to invenst your time in, more than starting a family (maybe one reason is its because its easier.... idk). Money plays a big role thats true but its not the only reason, you can raise a family with little money as most generations before us had to do. I think its only an excuse to blame it all on money. How we set our priorities is a big reason too.

（回复 @CB-sf9mx）我不认为有那么容易。你必须考虑到他们工作的长时间，并且期望父母双方都工作（像许多第一世界国家一样），所以似乎不可能有时间要孩子。
而且，因为很多原因（互联网使用、工作时间等），也越来越难遇到人。
另一个原因似乎是人们对资本主义感到厌倦，他们从消费和可以投入时间的各种事物的可获得性中获得生活满足感，而不是组建家庭（也许一个原因是这更容易……我不知道）。
钱确实扮演了重要角色，但不是唯一原因，你可以用很少的钱养家，就像我们之前的大多数代人必须做的那样。
我认为把一切都归咎于钱只是个借口。
我们如何设定我们的优先事项也是一个重要原因。

@CB-sf9mx
@dennisjajablubb9984 This. No time for proper socialising. Long working hours. Tiny apartments with no space for having friends over. 1 million and 1 distractions after you get home from work. the list goes on. It certainly isnt just about cost of living.

（回复 @dennisjajablubb9984）就是这个。
没有时间进行适当的社交、工作时间长、小公寓没有空间招待朋友、下班回家后有100万零1个分心的事情……清单还在继续。这肯定不仅仅是生活成本的问题。

@Yesman1001
This is so dump. Poor people make more kids. It has never been about money. But the new society favours individualism over Communism.

（回复 @CB-sf9mx）这太蠢了。穷人生更多孩子。这从来都不是钱的问题。而是新的社会风气就是更偏爱个人主义而非集体主义。

@dennisjajablubb9984
@Yesman1001 yeah, people are fed up with their own lifes. There is no room for a family.

（回复 @Yesman1001）是的，人们对自己的生活感到厌倦。没有家庭的空间。

@roberttrisca8210
or maybe people are too greedy ?! too concerned with status ?

（回复 @CB-sf9mx）或者也许是人们太贪婪了？！太在意地位了？

@churblefurbles
Its density, the more apartments they build the worse it will get, but as long as the borders remain it will self correct itself.

（回复 @itmeboh）是密度，他们建的公寓越多，情况就越糟，但只要边界保持不变，它就会自我修正。

@Leona-pc9cf
Why are women barely mentioned in this? It seems to me that the way women feel about having children is key here. Too long have women had children because of what society thought they should do with their bodies. Physically bearing a child needs to be recognised as the bodily sacrifice that it is. The sacrifice to career. The sacrifice to mental health, if you are not being well supported by a partner and a family.

为什么这里几乎没有提到女性？
在我看来，女性对生孩子的感受才是这里的关键。
长久以来，女性生孩子仅仅是因为社会认为她们应该如何对待自己的身体。
我们必须认识到，生育本身就是一种身体上的巨大牺牲，是对事业的牺牲，如果你没有得到伴侣和家庭的良好支持，那更是对心理健康的牺牲。

@ninamatthews8747
Problem in Japan is the same problem everywhere. Young people don’t want to have kids because they don’t feel financially secure. The rich are hoarding resources and it’s causing downward negative effects.

日本的问题放到哪儿都一样。年轻人不想要孩子，是因为他们没有经济上的安全感。
富人正在囤积资源，这正在造成一系列负面的连锁反应。

@ecclairmayo4153
It's very stressful to have kids and money is just one of the stressors

（回复 @ninamatthews8747）生孩子压力很大，而钱只是众多压力源中的一个。

@MrAerohank
I see a lot of people around me in their 30s who are financially secure but don't have kids.
Life in the first world is good. Very good. And it's fun. Luxury goods and trips are cheap and accessible for many young people. As a result, these young people choose to enjoy the fun and luxuries instead of choosing to have children. Having children has become a sacrifice. A sacrifice of your personal free time and fun.

（回复 @ninamatthews8747）我看到我周围很多30多岁的人经济上很稳定，但也没有孩子。
在第一世界国家的生活很好，非常好，而且很有趣。
奢侈品和旅行对许多年轻人来说既便宜又触手可及。
因此，这些年轻人选择享受乐趣和奢侈，而不是选择生孩子。
生孩子已经成了一种牺牲——牺牲你个人的自由时间和乐趣。

@anadd6195
True

（回复 @MrAerohank）确实。

@marvin2678
money isnt the problem

（回复 @MrAerohank）钱不是问题。

@brmbkl
@MrAerohank "I see a lot of people around me in their 30s who are financially secure but don't have kids."
anecdotal evidence, only says something about your social circle
and maybe the people you know are afraid that the only way to maintain their economic status is to remain childless?
that the examples they see of people with kids are not appealing, points to a fear, not selfishness
maybe enquire those friends of your to their motivation?

（回复 @MrAerohank）“我看到我周围很多30多岁的人经济上很稳定，但没有孩子。”
——这是孤证，只能说明你社交圈子的情况。
而且，也许你认识的人是害怕维持他们经济地位的唯一方法就是不生孩子？
他们看到的那些有孩子的家庭生活并不吸引人，这指向一种恐惧，而不是自私。
或许你可以去问问你那些朋友，他们不生的动机到底是什么？

@anthonyml7
So high cost of living, is what I think you're trying to say, I agree.

（回复 @brmbkl）所以是高昂的生活成本，我想你是想这么说，我同意。

@jansean2497
@MrAerohank Nice try. Try unaffordable housing, healthcare and being endlessly indentured to student loans.

（回复 @MrAerohank）说得好听。你再试试负担不起的住房、医疗保健和还不完的学生贷款吧。

@anthonyml7
@MrAerohank Bingo, it's much more of a "me me me" mentality which is why marriage rates have gone down and that pairs up with birth rates since the reason people get marries at all is usually to start a family.

（回复 @MrAerohank）答对了。这更多是一种“我、我、我”的个人主义心态，这就是为什么结婚率下降了，而这又直接与出生率挂钩，因为人们结婚的原因通常就是为了组建家庭。

@ilovecheesecake9904
@anthonyml7 Having children is always a sacrifice, the youth is choosing to focus on themselves before starting a family, which is a lot smarter than just doing it blindly because of tradition.

（回复 @anthonyml7）生孩子总是一种牺牲。
年轻人选择在组建家庭前先关注自身，这比仅仅因为传统而盲目地去做，要聪明得多。

@jansean2497
There! You said it best!

（回复 @ilovecheesecake9904）对了就是这样！你说得最好！

@agnyte22
@brmbkl this changes when you have kids… you are out of work, juggling many different aspects that no longer has anything to do with you. One parent is left to support family, other must dedicate his/her time to raise good humans, well mannered this requires time and money.

（回复 @brmbkl）当你有了孩子，一切就都变了……你没法工作，要处理许多不再只与你个人相关的方方面面。
一个家长要养家，另一个必须投入他/她的时间来培养有教养的好孩子，而这需要大量的时间和金钱。

@UzumakiNaruto_
@MrAerohank Life in the first world is good. Very good. And it's fun. Luxury goods and trips are cheap and accessible for many young people. As a result, these young people choose to enjoy the fun and luxuries instead of choosing to have children. Having children has become a sacrifice. A sacrifice of your personal free time and fun.
This is definitely the co-main reason as to why modern, civilized nations have fewer kids. Not only because of affordability of raising one or more children, but also if you're living a nice comfortable life, do you really want to put that on the back burner for many years to raise kids?
Many are willing to do that, but many more aren't and simply want to enjoy their own lives rather than spend close to 15-20 years or more raising children.

（回复 @MrAerohank）在第一世界的生活很好，非常好，而且很有趣。
奢侈品和旅行对许多年轻人来说既便宜又容易获得。
因此，这些年轻人选择享受乐趣和奢侈，而不是选择生孩子。生孩子已经成了一种牺牲。牺牲你个人的自由时间和乐趣。
这绝对是现代文明国家孩子少的共同主要原因之一。
不仅是因为抚养一个或多个孩子的经济负担，也因为如果你正过着美好舒适的生活，你真的愿意为了抚养孩子而将其搁置多年吗？
许多人愿意这样做，但更多的人不愿意，他们只是想享受自己的生活，而不是花近15-20年甚至更长时间来抚养孩子。

@enock83
It’s really that simple.

（回复 @UzumakiNaruto_）真的就这么简单。

@SenEmChannel
@MrAerohank i'm 32 and i'm not finacially secure nor my peers. I dont know, maybe your is difference

（回复 @MrAerohank）我32岁了，我和我的同龄人在经济上都不稳定。我不知道，也许你的情况不同。

@SenEmChannel
@anthonyml7 i have to want family, but i cant afford it.

（回复 @anthonyml7）我想要家庭，但我负担不起。

@Harishcn82
Indian population on the other hand is seeing an explosive growth with no sight of coning down

（回复 @ninamatthews8747）另一方面，印度人口正在爆炸式增长，丝毫没有下降的迹象。

@rclooper2843
Funny that data shows the opposite. The higher amount of disposable income the lower the birth rate. It is not a money problem as much as a lot of people want to keep saying it is.

（回复 @ninamatthews8747）有趣的是，数据显示的恰恰相反。可支配收入越高，出生率越低。这不是钱的问题，尽管很多人总想这么说。

@SenEmChannel
@rclooper2843 if the higher money mean the lower the birth rate. Then it is sure the money is a problem. My hypothesis is: in rich country, money to raise kid with higher education, better health, and better house is extremely higher than poor country. House is also more expensive. But in poor country, house is very cheap, and people dont care about their kid education or health. So in poor coutry, raise a child is significant cheaper than rich country. Let say: poor country go quantity of the children, rich country go for quality of the children. It make sense, because my parent could bought a house back then with 1 years of salary, that is insane.

（回复 @rclooper2843）如果钱越多意味着出生率越低，那么钱肯定是个问题。
我的假设是：在富裕国家，用更高的教育、更好的医疗和更好的房子来抚养孩子的成本，比贫穷国家高得多，房子也更贵。
但在贫穷国家，房子非常便宜，人们也不在乎他们孩子的教育或健康。
所以在贫穷国家，抚养一个孩子比在富裕国家便宜得多。
可以说：穷国追求孩子的数量，富国追求孩子的质量。
这说得通，因为我的父母当时用一年的薪水就能买一套房子，那太疯狂了。

@Koshersquid
It's more that children and marriage have changed from being necessary and expected to unnecessary in the case of marriage and a huge expense in the case of children. The birthrate is way higher in impoverished countries because people rely on marriage for financial security and children to care for them in their old age.

（回复 @ninamatthews8747）更重要的是，孩子和婚姻的观念已经改变了：从曾经的必要和理所应当，变成了婚姻非必要、孩子则是一笔巨大的开销。
贫困国家的出生率要高得多，因为人们依靠婚姻来获得经济保障，依靠孩子来为自己养老。

@420cm
The wolves confused why the sheep are not breeding anymore

狼群感到困惑：为什么羊群不再繁殖了？

@jimhendericks
Wong analogy. Slave masters don't need slaves anymore cause of ai.

（回复 @420cm）错误的类比。因为有了人工智能，奴隶主已经不再需要奴隶了。

@arvinsim
@jimhendericks AI ain't gonna replace labor intensive jobs like construction, nursing, etc.

（回复 @jimhendericks）人工智能可取代不了像建筑、护理等劳动密集型工作。

@Kevin_40
A 2 year old can figure this out. Stop ripping off young adults. Young adults need to be able to afford a normal life. In Japan everything is too expensive and now its happening around the world. Young adults are being massively ripped off and taken advantage of which leads men especially to not want to have children!

一个2岁的孩子都能想明白。
停止剥削年轻人吧！年轻人需要能够负担得起正常的生活。
在日本，所有东西都太贵了，现在全世界都在发生这种情况。
年轻人正在被大规模地剥削和利用，这尤其导致了男性不想要孩子！

@dazzlepecs
so explain the poorest countries having the highest fertility rate?

（回复 @Kevin_40）那解释一下为什么最贫穷的国家生育率最高？

@lynnmckenney1987
Its wild that "lets ensure our citizens feel financially stable enough to have kids" was never prioritized by the governenment...as it watched this happen for..THIRTY YEARS???!?

真是疯狂，“让我们确保我们的公民在经济上足够稳定，从而能生得起孩子”这件事，政府从来没有优先考虑过……就这么眼睁睁地看着这种情况发生了……三十年？？？！？

@SedriqMiers
Japan's economy is run by the U.S they have no say in the matter. The price of surrender in WW2, its basically another U.S state but without any U.S citizenry protections.

（回复 @lynnmckenney1987）日本的经济是由美国掌控的，他们在这件事上没有发言权，这是二战投降的代价。
它基本上就是美国的另一个州，但没有任何美国公民享有的保护。

@dylanshane
Crazy to think Japan got so ahead of the world in tech, economy, and culture — but now they’re literally running out of people. It’s like they hit a “cultural maximum” where life got so advanced, stressful, and individual-focused that no one’s having kids anymore. What’s wild is that this isn’t just Japan… Korea, Italy, even China are heading the same way. Might be a glimpse of our future — progress leading to population decline

想到日本曾在科技、经济和文化上如此领先世界，真是不可思议——但现在他们的人口真的要耗尽了。
就好像他们达到了一个“文化极限”，生活变得如此先进、充满压力和以个人为中心，以至于再也没有人要孩子了。
更疯狂的是，这不仅仅是日本……韩国、意大利，甚至中国都在朝同一个方向发展。
这可能是我们未来的一个缩影——进步导致了人口下降。

@Shell5370
It’s going to be brutal for China ....

（回复 @dylanshane）这对中国来说将是残酷的……

@GNXX25
they're not ahead anymore. Japan barely get into 20 richest country in the world.

（回复 @dylanshane）他们不再领先了。日本现在几乎进不了世界最富有的20个国家。

@rtjahyadi7868
@GNXX25 they’re not ahead anymore in east asia, they have been surpassed by China and south korea

（回复 @GNXX25）他们在东亚不再领先了，已经被中国和韩国超越了。

@GNXX25
​@rtjahyadi7868 South Korea? Yes. China? No. China's GDP Percapita still a third of Japan.

（回复 @rtjahyadi7868）韩国？是的。
中国？不。
中国的人均GDP仍然只是日本的三分之一。

@rtjahyadi7868
@GNXX25 yes in terms of wealth per person but gdp as a whole country, China is 2nd to US, have a check

（回复 @GNXX25）是的，在人均财富方面是这样，但作为一个整体国家的GDP，中国仅次于美国，去查查看吧。

@GNXX25
​@rtjahyadi7868 Ofc if you measure in totality. China population more than 10x compared to Japan.

（回复 @rtjahyadi7868）当然，如果你按总量来衡量的话。中国人口可是日本的10倍以上。

@rtjahyadi7868
@GNXX25 they’re not ahead anymore in east asia, they have been surpassed by China and south korea

（回复 @GNXX25）他们在东亚不再领先了，已经被中国和韩国超越了。

@tsukareruru
Please. Japan still uses fax machines and "Hanko" stamps everywhere. And you don't want to know how women are treated in their work culture or how everyone is forced to work overtime. Trust me their work culture is anything but "progressive". Advancement in tech and progressive culture attitude should make life more relaxing and easier, not harder for everyone. The core issure is not "progress" of society as a whole but quite literally, very simple put, the cost of raising a child. That's literally it. The cost of raising a child. Absolutely nothing else. This is not a complex human progress psychological issue. Properties are way too expensive. Raising a child is way too expensive. Everyone is living on rent in developed world. Cost of living. That's the only reason. Nothing else. And you will find this correlation everywhere around the world. If raising a child was very cheap, the population of the world would have been 100 billion already today.

（回复 @dylanshane）拜托。日本到现在还到处在用传真机和“判子”印章（译者注：日本印章“判子”一直是当地公司、组织及个人身份象征，效应比签名作实还高一个层次）呢。
而且你不会想知道女性在他们的工作文化中是如何被对待的，或者每个人是如何被迫加班的。
相信我，他们的工作文化绝谈不上“进步”。科技的进步和开明的文化态度，应该让生活更放松、更容易，而不是让每个人都更艰难。
核心问题不是整个社会的“进步”，而就是非常、非常简单的一点：养育一个孩子的成本。
就是这个，绝对没有别的了。
这不是什么复杂的人类进步心理学问题。
房子太贵了，养孩子太贵了，在发达国家，每个人都在租房住。生活成本，这是唯一的原因，没有其它。
而且你会在世界各地发现这种关联。
如果养孩子非常便宜，今天世界人口早就达到1000亿了。

@yo2trader539
@tsukareruru What century are you from?

（回复 @tsukareruru）你来自哪个世纪？

@Abcd-jz4gp
@tsukareruru I agree.

（回复 @tsukareruru）我同意。

@bakakafka4428
@tsukareruru While the west no longer uses fax machines, the attitude to work longer and harder and kick down at minorities is growing exponentially here. No reason to think we're better off than Japan.

（回复 @tsukareruru）虽然西方不再使用传真机，但在这里，工作更长时间、更努力以及打压少数族裔的态度正在指数级增长。没理由认为我们比日本过得好。

@Afrinaut
@tsukareruru 100% this! I'm tired of people claiming japan is a utopia, when it is in fact very right-wing, not "culturally" progressive in many aspects, deeply conformist not "individualistic" or balanced between the two states-of-mind at all, got reconstrution/reparations from the US post WW2, and learned heavily into the capitalism-grind mind-set. Plus with wages not keeping up with the cost-of-living.

（回复 @tsukareruru）100%同意这个！
我厌倦了人们声称日本是乌托邦，而实际上它非常右翼，在许多方面并非“文化上”进步，是深度循规蹈矩而非“个人主义”或在两种心态之间平衡，二战后从美国获得了重建/赔偿，并深度陷入了资本主义的“内卷”心态。
再加上工资跟不上生活成本。

@wrexchicane8259
@tsukareruru I disagree. Cost is only a small factor of reduced family size. The major factors are women’s ability and right to choose when and how many kids they want. It’s availability to contraception to reduce pregnancies. And with more opportunities for women in careers and higher education, they shift their priorities to careers and delay having kids and having less kids for lifestyle choices. As cultures modernize, people shift away from being homestead to being away from home, therefore the desire to have less kids.

（回复 @tsukareruru）我不同意。
成本只是家庭规模减小的一个小因素。
主要因素是女性选择何时以及想要多少孩子的能力和权利，是避孕措施的可获得性以减少怀孕。
随着女性在职业和高等教育方面有更多机会，她们将优先事项转向事业，推迟生育，并为生活方式选择而少生孩子。随着文化现代化，人们从居家生活转向离家生活，因此生更少孩子的愿望增加。

@priyansaikia7461
​@tsukareruru Well if these things are done by the US Govt, how would Japanese Lower their pppualtion.

（回复 @tsukareruru）嗯，如果这些事情是美国政府做的，日本人怎么会降低他们的人口呢？

@marvin2678
@tsukareruru thas simply not ture, its in rich and poor countries....

（回复 @tsukareruru）那根本不正确，这在富国和穷国都存在……

@fly.into.theblue
One disagreement, Japan is a heavily collectivist society, not an individualist one. People are forced to sacrifice their family life by overworking to enrich the rich people in power

（回复 @dylanshane）一个不同意见，日本是一个重度集体主义社会，而不是个人主义社会。
人们被迫通过过度工作来牺牲他们的家庭生活，以使当权的富人更富有。

@dewaeryadi7776
Japan literally speedrun the civilization after the war

（回复 @dylanshane）战后日本简直是快速通关了文明进程。

@greedyreader15
Civilization and development are two different things

（回复 @dewaeryadi7776）文明和发展是两回事。

@weekdays_warrior
Japan has ridiculous long hours of working but it's clearly inefficient (productivity should be measured by innovation not just work hours alone) & caused many Japanese in their 20s-30s lost their golden years to marry & build their own family.
This and add that with Japanese unwillingness to learn English as international language, that they failed to catch up with international trend. You can see why software & web development in Asia is dominated by China (especially the HK & Shenzhen-based people), Taiwan and Korea (since the 90s).. why Japanese tech companies are now lack behind.. which further worsening Japan's future prospects.

（回复 @dylanshane）日本的工作时间长得离谱，但显然效率低下（生产力应以创新而非仅工作时长来衡量），这导致许多20-30多岁的日本人失去了结婚和组建家庭的黄金岁月。
再加上日本人不愿意学习英语作为国际语言，导致他们未能跟上国际潮流。
你可以看到为什么亚洲的软件和网络开发被中国（特别是中国香港（特区）、台湾（地区）和深圳的人）和韩国（自90年代起）主导……
为什么日本科技公司现在落后了……
这进一步恶化了日本的未来前景。

@priyansaikia7461
​@weekdays_warrior Japan does have better software developers but not comparable to China in asia or America but surely in the top in the world.

（回复 @weekdays_warrior）日本确实有更好的软件开发者，但在亚洲比不上中国，也比不上美国，但在世界上肯定是顶尖的。

@Dani-kq6qq
Every country is heading the same direction

（回复 @dylanshane）每个国家都在朝同一个方向发展。

@earlysda
Teaching Evolution and Climate Change to kids makes them have no hope for the future.

（回复 @Dani-kq6qq）教孩子们进化论和气候变化，会让他们对未来没有希望。

@Dani-kq6qq
Teaching facts is causing low birthrate? Then you are cooked​ @earlysda

（回复 @earlysda）教事实导致低出生率？那你完蛋了。

@mork6780
That actually happens in many countries. The country becomes prosperous, leading to a golden age where everything is booming. But that also leads to higher standards of living, inflation, and the need for higher salaries to support the quality of life the people become accustomed to. When higher salaries become essential for the people pay their rent and buy their groceries, businesses move elsewhere, leaving the population with less jobs and a higher cost of living.
Ever since the bubble burst in the 90s, the main source of stress for the people of Japan has been financial. People struggled to find good-paying jobs and affordable apartments with more space than my mom's walk-in closet. We hear a lot about the stress put on children to go to cram schools and pass admissions tests to get into the best middle schools, high schools, and then colleges. But those kids go through all that for financial reasons: so they can get a good job.

（回复 @dylanshane）这实际上在许多国家都发生。国家变得繁荣，导致一个一切都在蓬勃发展的黄金时代。
但那也导致了更高的生活水平、通货膨胀，以及需要更高的薪水来支持人们习惯的生活质量。
当更高的薪水成为人们支付房租和购买杂货的必需品时，企业就会迁往别处，留给人口更少的工作和更高的生活成本。
自90年代泡沫破裂以来，日本人民压力的主要来源一直是财务。
人们努力寻找高薪工作和比我妈妈的步入式衣橱还大的、负担得起的公寓。
我们听到很多关于孩子们上补习班、通过入学考试进入最好的初中、高中，然后是大学的压力。
但那些孩子经历所有这些都是为了经济原因：这样他们就能找到一份好工作。

@klofuhdeyfcs
China and South Korea are OK. They have succeeded in training human resources for profitable fields. The problem is aging and redistribution of wealth.

（回复 @dylanshane）中国和韩国还行。他们在为盈利领域培训人力资源方面取得了成功。问题在于老龄化和财富再分配。

@ANONAAAAAAAAA
Japan's population crisis is over overpopulation, not population decline.
Stagnating wages means we have too many working people than demanded, which means we have to decrease our population.
As for old people, there are a lot of jobs old people can engage nowadays and continuing working is good for them to stay healthy both physically and mentally.
When old people can no longer support themselves, then we can offer MAID program just like Canada, since nobody in this country want to live when they can't leave their beds and need to have their stools extracted by care takers.

（回复 @dylanshane）日本的人口危机是人口过剩，而不是人口下降。
工资停滞意味着我们的劳动人口多于需求，这意味着我们必须减少我们的人口。
至于老年人，如今有很多老年人可以从事的工作，继续工作对他们保持身心健康有好处。
当老年人无法再自理时，我们可以提供像加拿大那样的医疗辅助死亡项目，因为在这个国家，没人想在无法下床、需要护理人员帮助排便时还活着。

@Francis-f4f
"Stagnating wages means we have too many working people than demanded," This is nonsense there is no mass unemployment in Japan.
"As for old people, there are a lot of jobs old people can engage nowadays and continuing working is good for them to stay healthy both physically and mentally." The right to retire is a human right, many old people's bodies are crushed by the time they reach retirement and have the right to have publicly subsidized retirement. You are an extremely out of touch individual.

（回复 @ANONAAAAAAAAA）“工资停滞意味着我们的劳动人口多于需求，”这是胡说，日本没有大规模失业。
“至于老年人，如今有很多老年人可以从事的工作，继续工作对他们保持身心健康有好处。”退休权是一项人权，许多老年人的身体到退休时已经垮了，他们有权享受公共补贴的退休生活。
你是个极其脱离现实的人。

@jonasp8920
This obsession of western media to compare China and Japan is so dishonest. The situation is completely different between the two, China is sovereign and not under the boot of America. Japan's stagnation and refusal to move away from the neo-liberal economic policies of the last 50 years is what led to this situation.

西方媒体这种比较中国和日本的执念非常不诚实。两国情况完全不同，中国是主权国家，不受美国控制。日本的停滞以及拒绝摆脱过去50年的新自由主义经济政策才是导致这种情况的原因。