日本近期的大米价格危机

 
@k22kk22k
Japanese here.
JA is a de facto conglomerate not only for farmers but also average rural people.
For example, they have a bank providing the most hassle-free services optimized for older people (no withdrawal fee, ATM is conveniently located).
Also they have a network of gas stations, and their price is considerably lower than other competitors (~5 yen per liter less).
Their services are almost essential for farmers to meet their ends.
JA’s interest seems to make their superior political position sustainable.
They provide vital services for farmers, but influence politics to keep them mildly poor. Innovation and reform are discouraged by policies thus the prices of produce is somewhat fixed, enabling JA to keep their economic scale relatively large and stable.
 
我是日本人。
日本农业协同组合（JA）实际上不仅是农民的联合体，也是普通农村人的大集团。
比如，他们有家银行，专门为老年人提供最便捷的服务（免取款手续费，ATM位置方便）。
他们还有个加油站网络，价格比其他竞争对手低不少（每升大约便宜5日元）。
他们的服务对农民来说几乎是不可或缺的，可以帮他们维持生计。
JA的利益似乎在于维持他们的优越的政治地位。
他们为农民提供了关键服务，但通过影响政治让农民保持轻度贫困。他们的政策阻碍了创新和改革，农产品价格多少被固定，让JA能维持相对较大且稳定的经济规模。
 
@hamaljay
I lived in Okayama Japan for 8 years. It's the rice basket of Japan (It also grows giant white peaches and giant grapes) in the neighborhood I lived in for 8 years I watched nearly 80% of the rice fields turn into housing. When my wife was a child in that same neighborhood she said she could see several kilometers away and it was just rice fields. Now it's housing, drug and convenience stores. Every time an old person died his kids sold off the land to a developer who built a house, an apartment building, drug store, or a convenience store on the plot.
 
我在日本冈山生活了8年。那里是日本的“米仓”（还种巨大的白桃和巨型葡萄）。我在那个社区生活了8年，眼看着近80%的稻田变成了住宅区。我妻子小时候说，在同一个社区，她能看到几公里外全是稻田。现在那儿都是住宅、药店和便利店。每次有老人去世，他们的子女就把地卖给开发商建房子、公寓楼、药店或便利店。
 
@SynxSP
As a resident of Japan coming from a country in Europe where rice is dirty cheap (less than 1 eur per kilo) Japanese rice always seemed expensive to me and looking into the protectionism and intervention of the market from the Japanese government I could see why. They created the problem in the first place and solving it now will have a huge impact on everyone no matter what.
 
作为来自欧洲一个大米超便宜的国家（每公斤不到1欧元）的日本居民，日本大米对我来说一直很贵。在研究了日本政府的保护主义和市场干预后，我明白了原因。他们一开始就制造了这个问题，现在解决它无论如何都会对所有人产生巨大的影响。
 
@twowheelsintokyo7039
Something most people don't know about Japan is its electoral system. Those who live in rural areas, and/or who are farmers get 2 to 3 votes per person, while those of us who live in the cities and suburbs get only 1 vote. The LPD has for decades bought these votes via subsidies and import tariffs, giving Japanese farmers a virtual monopoly on rice production, and giving politicians a captive pool of voters. Another problem is that in every part of Japan's economy, prices are not governed by the free market, but by business and the government. If you go to see a movie in Japan, you'll find that every theater charges the same price, no matter who owns or operates the theater. Japan's beer comes from 5 main brewing companies, and these breweries, rather than compete against one another, actually work with one another to keep prices high. Decades ago there was public outcry when beer prices were raised, as all 5 brewers and all their brands raised prices the exact same amount on the same day. As an exporter based in Japan, I remember the period of the financial crisis, when the yen gained from 133 to 74 to the dollar. This should have caused the prices of imported goods to fall by some 70%, and provided a windfall to American and European exporters. But Japan's importers and distributors kept prices high, with state support by claiming that "consumers needed to be protected from price fluctuations." A friend of mine at Nikkei was interviewing a BMW dealer in Tokyo, and being young and naive, she asked the dealer how many more cars he was selling due to the stronger yen. He coughed and hemmed, and avoided answering the question. The reality was that BMW prices weren't reduced a single yen, as Japan's powers-that-be won't let imported cars compete against domestic manufacturers. Japanese consumers get screwed at every turn, and this is one of the issues which is causing Japan's population to decline.
 
很多人不知道日本的选举制度。生活在农村或做农民的人每人能投2到3票，而我们这些生活在城市和郊区的人只有1票。几十年来，自民党通过补贴和进口关税购买这些选票，让日本农民几乎垄断了稻米生产，也让政客有了一群稳定的选民。另一个问题是日本经济的每个部分，价格都不由自由市场决定，而是由企业和政府控制。在日本看电影，你会发现每家影院的票价都一样，不管是谁拥有或运营。日本的啤酒来自5家主要的酿酒公司，这些酿酒厂不互相竞争，反而合作保持高价。几十年前，啤酒价格上涨时引发了公众抗议，因为5家酿酒商的所有品牌在同一天涨了同样的幅度。作为日本的出口商，我记得金融危机时，日元从133兑1美元升值到74兑1美元。这本该让进口商品价格下降约70%，但日本的进口商和分销商在政府的支持下保持高价，他们声称“需要保护消费者免受价格波动的影响”。我一个在《日经》的朋友采访东京的宝马经销商时，年轻天真的他问经销商因为日元升值多卖了多少车。他咳嗽着支吾，没有回答问题。现实是宝马的价格一分没降，因为日本的掌权者不让进口车跟本土制造商竞争。日本消费者处处被坑，这也是导致日本人口下降的原因之一。
 
@michaelthayer5351
So basically Japan got to be self-sufficient in rice only because tastes shifted to other imported foods like meat and wheat, which combined with the declining population made up for a collapse in rice production by a third. Prices are only likely to continue rising as more part time rice farmers quit due to a combination of getting too old and the Rice Cartel's entrenched bureaucracy and heavy-handedness driving away those young enough to dream about being a salaryman in a city somewhere.
I feel like Japan needs another round of land reform that allows farmers to accumulate enough acreage to make a decent living and invest in additional mechanization to make up for a lack of farm labor. It's either they do that this decade or be forced to adopt corporate farming sometime in the 2030s-40s with large conglomerates like Mitsubishi owning and farming tens of thousands of acres as they'll be the only ones left to organize it. Or Japan will have even more import dependency possibly reaching ~80% of all calories.
 
基本上，日本能在大米上自给自足，这只是因为人们的口味转向了进口食品，如肉类和小麦，加上人口下降，弥补了稻米产量下降三分之一的缺口。随着更多兼职稻农因年老或稻米卡特尔的根深蒂固的官僚作风和高压手段退出，价格很可能会继续上涨，这些年轻人还梦想去城市当白领。
我觉得日本需要再来一次土地改革，让农民能积累足够的土地，过上体面的生活并投资更多机械化来弥补农业劳动力的不足。要么在这十年内做到，要么到2030-40年代被迫采用企业化农业，像三菱这样的大集团拥有并耕种数万英亩土地，因为他们将是唯一能组织起来的企业。否则，日本的进口依赖会更严重，可能高达所有所需卡路里的80%。
 
@Flint_Ironstag
My family and I moved to Japan a few months ago and rice prices are so high that imported American rice is a 20%-30% cheaper than Japanese rice even after the tariffs. We’re a bunch of Midwesterners so we see no discernible taste difference so we’re happy to save the money where we can
 
我和我的家人几个月前搬到日本，这里的大米价格高得离谱，即使算上关税，进口的美国大米也比日本大米便宜20%-30%。我们是中西部人，感觉不到口感差别，所以能省钱的地方我们都很开心。
 
@gj1234567899999
There is no way Japanese rice can compete unless there is massive consolidation to make bigger farms which is politically infeasible at the moment it seems. Rice is “cheap” because rice farmers in Southeast Asia don’t get paid much and American rice farmers have huge plots of land to make use of scale. Japanese farmers have neither of these things. Japanese rice farmers can either be paid little or consolidate.
 
日本大米没法参与竞争，除非大规模整合成大农场，但目前看来这在政治上不可行。大米“便宜”是因为东南亚稻农工资低，美国稻农有大片土地利用规模经济，而日本农民这两样都没有。日本的稻农要么拿低薪，要么整合。
 
@n2n8sda
tldr it is piss poor government management.
They government rice farmers to not grow rice for food to avoid an oversupply, help to keep the price high. I know several rice farmers who are paid government subsidy money to either not grow anything or grow a different kind of rice that isn't used for human consumption. Since 1990 the amount of rice fields in production has dropped over 30%, which wasn't a huge issue as during the same time period the average Japanese family consumes 50% less rice, bread based products outsold rice for the first time a few years ago.
However, Japan now has an all time high number of foreign workers, mainly from neighbouring Asian countries who eat a lot of rice, record numbers of tourists and a climate that is changing that makes good yields of rice more difficult.
The fact the government tried to blame tourists initially for rice just shows how they are unwilling to admit their agricultural policies are not robust and they have cut rice production so fine that any small changes to either consumption or yield will result in shortages, which then creates panic buying which further leads to more shortages.
 
总结就是政府管理烂透了。
政府补贴稻农不种食用大米以防供应过剩，帮着把价格抬高。我认识几个稻农，他们拿着政府的补贴要么啥也不种，要么种不供人吃的其他大米。自1990年以来，日本的稻田面积下降了30%以上，这在以前不是大问题，因为同期日本家庭的平均大米消费量降了50%，几年前面包类产品的销量首次超过大米。
但现在，日本有有史以来最多的外籍劳工，他们主要来自邻近的亚洲国家，他们吃很多大米，还有创纪录的游客，以及气候变化让大米更难高产。
政府一开始试图责怪游客导致大米短缺，这只是表明他们不愿承认农业政策不稳健，他们把大米生产削减得太精准，消费或产量的任何小变化都会导致短缺并引发恐慌性抢购，进一步加剧短缺。
 
@ichifish
Kudos for getting "rice price crisis" out perfectly. What's happening is that Japan has traded short term convenience for long term stability and security. It's not just rice that is through the roof. Thanks to the weak yen all of the 60% of our food that is imported is more expensive, some of it more than doubling in price. So we're not just getting slammed on rice, basics like flour, oil, and fruit have skyrocketed. This is only going to get worse as climate change wreaks havoc on the exporters we rely on and food becomes a bargaining chip in regional security matters. But as we get squeezed more consumers rely on imported packaged food and fast-food joints, which makes farming even less profitable. About 10 years back we looked into starting a family farm, but in both of the towns we looked at the regulations for what we could or couldn't produce and which coop we'd have to get permission from to grow certain things were so onerous that we gave up.
 
我要表扬你把“大米价格危机”说得太到位了，现在的情况是日本为了短期便利牺牲了长期的稳定和安全。不只是大米的价格疯涨，由于日元疲软，我们60%的进口食品都更贵了，有些价格翻倍还不止。所以不光是大米，面粉、油、水果这些基础品的价格也在暴涨。随着气候变化重创我们依赖的出口国，食品变成区域安全博弈的筹码，情况只会更糟。但随着我们被压榨，更多消费者依赖进口包装食品和快餐店，这让农业更不赚钱。大约10年前，我们考虑开个家庭农场，但在我们看过的两个镇上，关于能种什么、不能种什么以及得从哪个合作社那儿拿许可的规定太繁琐，我们放弃了。
 
@Verpal
What I found interesting is price of Japan sourced rice bought in Hong Kong is actually not too far from the recently deployed Japanese government rice, considering cost of transport and custom, one might even consider price of Japanese rice in Hong Kong equal or lower.
How does that happen I have zero idea, just found it interesting.
 
我发现有意思的是在香港（特区）买的日本产大米的价格跟日本政府最近投放的大米的价格差不了太多，考虑到运输和海关成本，有人甚至可能觉得香港（特区）的日本大米价格于日本差不多或更低。
这咋回事我完全没头绪，就是觉得挺有趣。
 
@fyang1429
It's funny to mention that Japan produces less rice than other neighboring countries without mentioning rice production per capita. Japan was an industrialized nation by 1961, the others were not.
It's like asking why Japan chose to do more tech back then than becoming the rice cartel that is Thailand or not force farmers to buy expensive equipment they struggle to pay back like the US.
Japan may need to reform its agriculture today, but that historical inefficiency probably happened with other reasons in mind.
 
提到日本比邻国产米少却不提人均产量挺好笑的。到1961年，日本已经是工业化国家，但其他国家不是。
这就像问为什么日本当时选择搞科技，而不是像泰国那样做稻米卡特尔，或者像美国那样逼农民买昂贵的、还不起的设备。
日本今天可能需要进行农业改革，但历史上的低效可能有其他原因。
 
@RUHappyATM
Japan has 12.5% of its land cultivated, about 47,250 sqkm. Water 1.4%. Agriculture employment at 3.1%.
Pop is 36% of the US.
US has about 17% of its land cultivated, about 1,681,826 sqkm. Water 7%. Agriculture employment at 1.62%.
I agree, it's lack of productivity, not enough land or water.
I can understand why they went on their conquests of Korea, Manchuria and the rest is history.
 
日本有12.5%的土地用于耕作，约47,250平方公里。水资源占1.4%。农业就业率3.1%。
人口是美国的36%。
美国有约17%的土地用于耕作，约1,681,826平方公里。水资源占7%。农业就业率1.62%。
我同意，这是生产力不足，不是土地或水不够。
我能理解他们为什么去征服朝鲜、满洲，后面的事就是历史了。
 
@CjqNslXUcM
Self-sufficiency sounds nice in theory, but it's useless if it drains your economy so much that you lose the conflict you were preparing for by being self-sufficient before it even began.
 
自给自足理论上听起来不错，但如果它耗尽你的经济，让你在准备自给自足的冲突开始前就输了，那就没用了。
 
@xoso599
Wow, government intervention into a market creates low efficiency production and high consumer prices. The lingering issue is propped up by special interests looking to continue to enrich the interest at the expense of the rest of the economy.
 
哇，政府干预市场导致生产效率低、消费者价格高。长期问题被特殊利益集团撑着，他们为了继续致富不惜牺牲其他经济部分。
 
@Lcavl-clk
As a resident here, I see the main problem with Japanese is that they value new rice or seasonal 1st crop harvested rice. They have been spoiled. The politician's criticism of foreign imported rice as inferior has caused the Japanese not to be able to adapt to the new realities that sooner or later the farmers will be gone and the Japanese will only have imported rice to contend with. Another example are the expensive fruits that are grown to the highest standard and sweetness but only a few in Japan can truly enjoy. And of course stupid politicians who say stupid things during a time of crisis like his supporters have given him so much rice that he can actually sell them himself while the rest of the people reeling from the price increase. Basically the Japanese did that to themselves.
 
作为本地居民，我觉得日本人的主要问题是他们太看重新米或季节性初收米，他们被宠坏了。政客批评进口米质量差，导致日本人无法适应新现实：迟早农民会消失，日本人只能靠进口米。另一个例子是那些按最高标准种植、超甜但只有少数日本人能享受的昂贵水果。当然，还有愚蠢的政客在危机时说蠢话，比如他的支持者给了他太多米，他都能自己卖了，而其他人还在为价格上涨发愁。基本上，日本人是自找的。
 
@conor7154
There have been limits on rice purchases at the supermarket for months now and if you try to buy it on Amazon it will be delayed by weeks. It’s basically impossible to buy it at less than 4,000 yen for 5 kg unless you want to wait a really long time to get it. Grocery prices in general are extremely high in Japan, especially compared to the US, and rice being so high when it’s probably the largest calorie source is especially baffling.
 
超市几个月来一直在限购大米，如果你在亚马逊买，得等好几周。基本上不可能以低于4000日元买到5公斤的米，除非你愿意等超久。总体来说，日本的杂货价格极高，尤其是跟美国比，而大米作为可能是最大的热量来源还这么贵，特别让人费解。
 
@johnharker7194
The way it was described to me in university, is that plenty of Japanese would be willing to live in rural Japan. But government policies have made it unfeasible. Like your example of deliberately keeping farms small, preventing farmers from making a full income. the rush of Japanese to urban centers is often described as a problem of vanity. As if nobody would be interested in rural employment
 
大学里有人跟我描述日本有很多人愿意生活在农村，但政府的政策让这变得不可行。就像你说的，故意让农场保持小规模，阻止农民赚足收入。日本人涌向城市中心常被说成是虚荣问题，好像没人对农村工作感兴趣似的。
 
@mdkooter
Interestingly, Spanish short grain rice is dirt cheap and genetically closely related to Japanese rice. Japan could import bomba-rice from Spain, and several Italian rice species (which are less economic though). All descend from Japanese rice anyway. Taiwan's rice although also very similar is already quite pricey so I doubt it's a good solution.
 
有趣的是西班牙的短粒米便宜得要命，在基因上跟日本米很接近。日本可以从西班牙进口bomba米，还有几种意大利米种（不过经济性差些）。这些米反正都源于日本米。台湾（地区）的米虽然也很相似，但已经挺贵了，估计不是好方案。
 
@goeddy
can't the difference between japanese and taiwanese rice yields just be explained by geography? the climate is much warmer in taiwan all year so presumably the rice grows better there without any winter.
 
日本和台湾（地区）稻米产量的差异难道不能用地理来解释吗？台湾（地区）全年气候暖和得多，估计大米在那儿长得更好，没有冬天的影响。
 
@ostsan8598
Sounds a bit like how America dealt with dairy production after WW2. Started with trying to keep farms afloat after the war and maintain reasonable market prices for dairy products. Now there's over a billion tons of cheese stored in former limestone mines.
 
这有点像美国二战后处理乳制品生产的方式。一开始是为了战后维持农场运营，保持乳制品市场价格合理，现在有超过十亿吨的奶酪储存在原来的石灰岩矿里。
 
@RhesusKalawLibertad
Can you also do a video essay about the rice farming and rice politics in the Philippines?
It's interesting how they kept away from WTO agreements involving rice imports.
 
你能不能也做一期关于菲律宾稻米农业和稻米政治的视频文章？
他们如何避开涉及大米进口的WTO协议挺有趣的。
 
@texx8205
This is a big shock to me as I would imagine the prices of rice would be actually a lot lower in Japan than in EU where it's imported. Here, it's about 2euro per 1kg whereas in Japan this is more than double. That's insane. Also, I still remember not so long ago, 1kg of round-grain rice was actually about 1euro.
 
这对我来说是个很大的震惊，我本来以为日本的大米价格会比欧盟低很多，毕竟欧盟是进口大米的。这儿1公斤大约2欧元，而日本比这贵一倍多，这太离谱了。还有，我记得不久前，1公斤圆粒米才1欧元左右。
 
@tehpanda64
They are complaining about ~3 dollars per lb? That is almost the same price im paying for very premium short grain rice delivered by that one jungle website in 2 days. I admit, if I go to that big blue supermarket you can get long grain rice (enriched) for like 50 cents per lb. So what kind of rice is 3 dollars per lb in japan? is that the cheapest rice? or is their standard rice very high quality? I am having trouble comparing prices here when "rice" can mean a lot of different things.
 
他们在抱怨每磅3美元左右？我在那个丛林网站买的超优质短粒米，两天送到，价格也差不多。我承认如果去那个蓝色大超市，长粒米（强化米）大概每磅50美分。日本3美元每磅的米是啥？是最便宜的米吗？还是他们的标准米品质很高？“大米”可以指很多不同东西，我在这儿比价格有点难。
 
@ericpmoss
Small and fragmented farms is not a bad thing. We have seen the consolidation of farms in the US and the farmers are still desperate and beholden to the banks, implement dealers, seed companies, chemical companies, and grain processors, all while depressing wholesale prices below the cost of production. Of course, the cost to consumers isn't being held down, because that cuts into shareholder profit.
 
小而分散的农场不是坏事。我们看到美国农场整合后，农民还是很绝望，他们依赖银行、设备商、种子公司、化学公司和谷物加工商，批发价还被压到低于生产成本。当然，消费者成本没有降，因为那会削减股东的利润。
 
@wvsyagowten
I don’t usually watch farming videos, but when you talk about it it’s one of the most interesting topics ever. Also calling 25-35 degrees moderate for farmers sounds crazy for a Scandinavian like me who lives in a cold climate. If it’s 30 degrees it’s considered unbearable for most people. Most people prefer around 15-20 degrees in summer.
 
我平时不看农业视频，但你讲的时候，这成了最有趣的话题之一。对我这个生活在寒冷气候的斯堪的纳维亚人来说，把25-35度叫“温和”太疯狂了。如果到30度，大多数人都觉得受不了。夏天大多数人更喜欢15-20度左右。
 
@jamescampbell6728
I've been on a vacation for the past month or so (my first time). I ran into a local who told me we were importing rice from America. I was rather surprised! Then we saw the price of a 2kg bag and we were pretty shocked how expensive it was compared to everything else. Great to see a video about this!
 
我过去一个月在度假（第一次）。我遇到个本地人告诉我，我们在从美国进口大米。我挺惊讶的！然后我们看到一袋2公斤的米价，震惊得不行，相比其他东西贵太多了。看到这个视频很棒！
 
@Xaito
Living in Europe I've bought imported Japanese rice from Italy for years because I like it. Had a decent enough stock to last summer so I only recently noticed the scarcity. I've now bought Japanese style rice from Vietnam. Surprisingly it's so similar I've barely noticed any difference. This surprised me because in the past even other brand Japanese rice tasted different than the one I usually bought.
 
我生活在欧洲，我多年来买意大利产的日本米的原因是因为我喜欢。去年的库存够用，所以最近才注意到短缺。我现在买了越南产的日式大米。惊讶的是它跟原来买的几乎一样，我几乎没有察觉到差别。这让我感到惊讶，因为过去即使是其他品牌的日本米，味道也跟我常买的不一样。