QA回答：俄罗斯与美国的军事实力差距有多大？请客观分析

Tomaž Vargazon
Let’s put it this way.

我们这样说吧。


Ukraine in orange, Iraq in green
Back in 2003, USA (with UK) invaded Iraq. It had fairly modern weaponry, a large mobilized army that was prepared to face the invasion. USA was fighting on the other side of the world, Saudi Arabia prohibited the use of their territory and Turkey didn’t want to join the coalition, so all the forces were coming in from Kuwait. Iraqis knew exactly where Americans were coming from and had ample time to prepare. Americans were fighting almost 10,000 km from their home.

乌克兰橙色，伊拉克绿色
回到2003年，美国（与英国）入侵了伊拉克。伊拉克拥有相当现代化的武器装备，一支庞大的、已动员起来准备应对入侵的军队。美国在世界的另一端作战，沙特阿拉伯禁止使用其领土，土耳其也不愿加入联军，所以所有部队都从科威特进入。伊拉克人清楚地知道美国人从哪里来，并有充足的时间准备。美国人距离他们的家乡将近10,000公里。

The war lasted six weeks and took fewer than 200 coalition lives, 139 Americans and 33 British soldiers died, approximately 600 were wounded. Saddam was removed from power and a new government installed. You can quibble about what happened later, the army part was done flawlessly.

战争持续了六周，联军伤亡人数不到200人，其中139名美国士兵和33名英国士兵阵亡，约600人受伤。萨达姆被赶下台，新政府成立。你可以对后来发生的事情吹毛求疵，但军事行动部分是完美无瑕的。

Back in 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Ukraine too had some modern weaponry, but was caught by surprise. No one in Ukraine thought Russia would launch the invasion, it would be outright silly. Russia was fighting on their border, within 400 km of Moscow even and invaded not only through Russia, but through Belarus as well, driving hard for Kyiv. Ukraine had only about 24 hours to prepare, that’s when Ukrainian high command realized the Western intelligence was right.

回到2022年，俄罗斯入侵了乌克兰。乌克兰也拥有一些现代化武器，但被突袭。乌克兰没有人认为俄罗斯会发动入侵，那将是彻头彻尾的愚蠢行为。俄罗斯在其边境作战，甚至距离莫斯科不到400公里，不仅通过俄罗斯，还通过白俄罗斯入侵，直奔基辅。乌克兰只有大约24小时的时间准备，那时乌克兰最高指挥部才意识到西方情报是正确的。

The war is now 2.5 years old. Russian casualties are in hundreds of thousands. The armored fist of their army is no more, they’re making do with old Soviet-era weaponry and barely trained recruits. They lost dozens of planes, thousands of tanks and haven’t yet captured a single provincial capital - save for Kherson, which they lost back to Ukrainians. The few towns they managed to capture despite fierce resistance are now smoldering ruins. Ukrainian forces occupy a part of Russia and are striking deep inside Russia with drones and saboteurs. A private army rebelled and drove to Moscow, it was only stopped by the fact their commander was even stupider than he looked (and he looked very stupid).

战争至今已持续2.5年。俄罗斯的伤亡人数已达数十万。他们军队的装甲铁拳已不复存在，现在只能依靠老旧的苏联时代武器和训练不足的新兵。他们损失了数十架飞机，数千辆坦克，并且尚未攻占任何一个省会城市——除了赫尔松，但后来又被乌克兰人夺回。他们设法攻占的少数几个城镇，尽管抵抗激烈，现在也变成了冒烟的废墟。乌克兰军队占领了俄罗斯的一部分，并用无人机和破坏分子深入俄罗斯境内进行打击。一支私人军队叛变并开往莫斯科，他们之所以被阻止，仅仅是因为他们的指挥官比他看起来的还要愚蠢（他看起来非常愚蠢）。

Since the beginning of the summer Russians lost more men each day than Americans and the British lost to bring down Saddam Hussein in 6 weeks, while fighting on the other side of the world. In fact they lose about twice as many men each day these days, thanks to fierce Ukrainian offensive.

自夏天开始以来，俄罗斯人每天损失的人数，比美国和英国在世界另一端作战六周以推翻萨达姆·侯赛因所损失的人数还要多。事实上，由于乌克兰的猛烈攻势，他们目前每天损失的人数大约是那个数字的两倍。

I think this showcases the differences quite well. It’s rather stark.

我认为这很好地展示了差异。相当鲜明。

Benjamin Muller
There is one specific comparison, and it’s very much a key relevant comparison, that actually sums up the difference rather well.

有一个具体的比较，而且这是一个非常关键且关联性很强的比较，它实际上很好地总结了两者之间的差异。

This is the F-35 -

这是F-35——


One of the most capable warbirds ever made, a fifth generation fighter.

有史以来最强大的战机之一，第五代战斗机。

This is the SU-57 -

这是苏-57——


Supposedly a fifth gen fighter according to Russia and their fanboys. Certainly this is the answer Russia offers to the F-35(as far as actually produced planes, their vaporware wunder weapons don’t count as they don’t exist yet, if they ever will).

根据俄罗斯及其狂热粉丝的说法，这应该算是第五代战斗机。显然，这是俄罗斯针对F-35给出的回应（仅就实际列装的机型而言——他们那些还停留在PPT阶段的"神奇武器"可不算数，毕竟那些东西目前根本不存在，未来能否问世也未可知）。

You don’t want bias, so I’ll skip opinions about which is the better plane, and stick to obxtive numbers relevant to military strength… Russia has 14 - that’s fourteen - Su-57s and the US currently produces about that many F-35s per month(13 per month). The US currently has about 630 of them, and that number continues to grow rapidly, with a target of having about 2500 of them within the next 16 years. If Russia ever makes even another 14 of them given what dysfunctional corruption they’ve sunken into, I will be surprised.

你不是想听偏见，所以我不会评价哪款战机更优秀，只列举与军事实力相关的客观数据……俄罗斯目前拥有14架——注意是十四架——苏-57，而美国F-35的月产量就差不多是这个数字（每月13架）。美军现役F-35约630架，这个数字还在快速增长，计划未来16年内将规模扩充至2500架左右。考虑到俄罗斯深陷系统性的腐败泥潭，他们要是能再生产出14架苏-57，我都会感到惊讶。

So even if you buy every last bit of bullshit the fanboys claim about the Su-57 being a superior fighter, the US currently has 42 F-35s for every one Su-57 in existence, a ratio that continues to grow. And not even the most rosy assessments of the Su-57s capabilities paint it as something that can achieve even a 2 to 1 kill ratio against an F-35, let alone a 42 to 1, the conversation of its alleged superiority is always in a 1 to 1 matchup.

所以，即使你完全相信那些狂热支持者关于苏-57是一款更优秀战斗机的所有废话，美国目前拥有的F-35数量是现存苏-57的42倍，而且这个比例还在持续增长。即使对苏-57性能最乐观的评估，也无法将其描绘成能够对抗F-35时达到2比1的击落比，更不用说42比1了，关于其所谓优势的讨论始终是在1比1的对抗中进行的。

And that right there is a perfect example of the gap between the US military strength and Russia’s.

这正是美国和俄罗斯军事实力差距的完美例证。

Bill Chen
Well, the question is better frxd as “does either country have the CAPACITY to go to war directly?"

嗯，这个问题最好表述为“两国是否有直接开战的能力？”

And the answer is a clear no.
Otherwise america would have done so long ago, when Russia was far weaker.

答案是明确的“不”。
否则美国早就这样做了，那时俄罗斯要弱得多。

Hypothetically, in a controlled boxing match between individual systems, many US weapons may have the edge over Russian ones, especially if the fight is between frontline units.
But war isn't a controlled boxing match. War is a fight to the death between doctrines.

假设在个体系统之间的受控拳击比赛中，许多美国武器可能比俄罗斯武器占优势，特别是如果是在前线部队之间的战斗。
但战争不是一场受控的拳击比赛。战争是不同军事学说之间的殊死搏斗。

What is a doctrine? It is the system of systems integration to deliver controlled and precise firepower to destroy the enemy.
And Russian doctrine is optimized for northern latitudes, and focused on rugged equipment that can be easily repaired, even in remote locations. Russian warfighting also give prime consideration to the long and harsh winter, as well as the ceding of strategic depth to buy time.

什么是军事学说？它是系统集成的系统，旨在提供受控和精确的火力来摧毁敌人。
俄罗斯的军事学说针对高纬度地区进行了优化，并侧重于坚固耐用、即使在偏远地区也能轻松修复的设备。俄罗斯的作战方式还优先考虑漫长而严酷的冬季，以及通过放弃战略纵深来争取时间。

US arms are, for the most part, not optimized for the cold and require complex, time-consuming base-level maintenance to keep going. American doctrine is also focused on front-foot aggression, to demonstrate the scourge of power away from home. It is doubtful America has the industrial base to supply a large scale conflict given the trouble NATO has supplying Ukraine, with even basic artillery shells in short supply.

美国武器在很大程度上并未针对寒冷条件进行优化，并且需要复杂、耗时的基地级维护才能维持运行。美国的军事学说还侧重于主动进攻，以在海外展示其强大的力量。鉴于北约在向乌克兰提供援助方面遇到的困难，甚至基本炮弹都供应短缺，美国是否拥有支撑大规模冲突的工业基础令人怀疑。

Russia has been outproducing NATO and friends in war materiel since 2022.
Logistics is what wins wars and Russia isn't the warrior nation for nothing.
I don't see Russia losing a conventional war defending its sovereignty against the US.
A nuclear war will have no winners.

自2022年以来，俄罗斯在战争物资生产方面一直超过北约及其盟友。
后勤是赢得战争的关键，俄罗斯“好战民族”的称号并非浪得虚名。
我不认为俄罗斯在保卫其主权免受美国侵害的常规战争中会失败。
核战争没有赢家。

Carl Hamilton
The current military gap between the USA and Russia, quite depends on which aspect. To honestly say that a country has military power as a single static value doesn’t make sense, like wise, simply pointing to a past operation as an anecdote is a fallacy, and only marginally gives an indication of what experience shapes the ideas of the respective military.

当前美国和俄罗斯之间的军事差距，很大程度上取决于具体哪个方面。坦率地说，将一个国家的军事力量视为一个单一的静态数值是没有意义的；同样地，仅仅将过去的某个军事行动作为轶事来指出也是一种谬误，它只能在很小程度上表明什么经验塑造了各自军队的思想。


Let’s start with the highest level of capability. Russia and USA are nuclear superpowers, no matter what people claim about them otherwise. They are peerless in their ability to destroy the world, both maintain thousands of nuclear warheads and delivery systems. Even China only maintains 10% of the warheads of either Russia or USA. In this respect there is no gap, and both nations are peerless.

让我们从最高层次的能力开始。无论人们对俄罗斯和美国有何其他说法，它们都是核超级大国。它们摧毁世界的能力是无与伦比的，两国都拥有数千枚核弹头和运载系统。即使是中国，也只拥有俄罗斯或美国核弹头数量的10%。在这方面，两国之间没有差距，都堪称无与伦比。

If we talk about projection power, the USA is the only true superpower and peerless in their ability to deploy their air and naval forces around the world, usually for influence and punitive actions. Russia is a regional power, they can project only with the consent of host countries, or within their immediate region, such as Ukraine and Georgia, but the very idea that Russia could militarily influence anything in for example South America is close to unthinkable.

如果我们谈论投射能力，美国是唯一真正的超级大国，在世界各地部署其空军和海军以施加影响和采取惩罚性行动的能力是无与伦比的。俄罗斯是一个地区大国，他们只能在东道国同意的情况下，或者在其周边地区（如乌克兰和格鲁吉亚）进行投射，但俄罗斯能在例如南美洲进行军事影响力投射的想法几乎是不可想象的。

In terms of actual naval power, the US Navy is almost certainly the most powerful navy in the world, even with Chinese naval power reaching new heights, it is still a regional and very inexperienced navy, while the Russian navy is more experienced, it is under funded. The US navy is very experienced, very well equipped, and very well funded. It is a very well organized US military arm and the basis for most of it’s power.

就实际海军实力而言，美国海军几乎肯定是世界上最强大的海军，即使中国海军力量达到新高，它仍然是一支区域性且经验非常不足的海军，而俄罗斯海军虽然经验更丰富，但资金不足。美国海军经验丰富，装备精良，资金充足。它是美国组织非常完善的军事部门，也是其大部分力量的基础。

In terms of air power, the US also has a clear edge. The US maintains the only large fleet of stealth aircraft, the largest fleet of AWACS, the only truly capable carrier based air force, as well as an overall advantage in numbers. However, the Russian air force is no joke, they are highly capable and have a large percentage of modern aircraft, what they lack in stealth they make up for in advanced missiles and carriers for them notably the MiG-31 with Kinzhal air to ground missiles, and R-37M ultra-long range AA missiles, both have proved highly effective in a near peer conflict. The Russian air force also have a lot of experience fighting in high ECM and high AA environments, which no US pilot can claim, as the enemies of the US rarely have any air defense at all, and they tend to fly their planes like AA missiles barely exist. The gap here might not be as great as one might think.

在空军力量方面，美国也拥有明显优势。美国拥有唯一的大型隐形飞机机队、最大的预警机机队、唯一真正具备实力的航母舰载航空兵，以及总体数量上的优势。然而，俄罗斯空军也绝非等闲之辈，他们能力很强，拥有大量现代化飞机，他们在隐身方面不足之处通过先进导弹及其载机来弥补，特别是搭载“匕首”空对地导弹的米格-31和R-37M超远程空空导弹，两者在近乎对等的冲突中都证明了高效。俄罗斯空军在强电子对抗和高防空环境下作战经验丰富，这是任何美国飞行员都无法忽视的，因为美国的敌人很少拥有任何防空能力，而且他们倾向于飞行飞机时仿佛防空导弹根本不存在一样。这里的差距可能不像人们想象的那么大。

In terms of Army, the Russians maintain a larger force than the US, additionally, the US are facing very serious problems with manpower, being an all volunteer army, Russian shortages can easily be fixed with conscxtion, and they maintain a reserve more than 10 times the size of the USA. As we can see from current conflicts, in a serious war, the ability to replenish casualties is very important, and the USA does not have this nearly to the same extent. Additionally, the Russian ground forces are now staffed by experienced officers and troops, who know how to conduct trench warfare and urban warfare on the modern battlefield against near peer adversaries. Again, no soldier in the US army can claim the same. The equipment of the Russian army is also rapidly adapting to the realities of modern warfare. Everyone laughed at the Russian cope cages in the beginning of the war, no one is laughing now. The Russian tactic for drones was correct, and everyone who is facing drones now copies the Russians, not the other way around, just ask the Israeli cope cages. Finally, the Russian ground forces have a very large, and very experienced and successful drone corps, which is now integrated at company to battalion level which includes an electronic warfare anti drone component. This is not a small advantage, and without a doubt this is going to be an essential part of any modern army in the very near future, but western militarizes including the USA are only barely beginning to do something like what the Russians already have in terms of drones. In short, in terms of ground forces, the Russian army is probably ahead of the USA and this is the area with the biggest difference in experience and innovation.

就陆军而言，俄罗斯保持着比美国更大的兵力，此外，美国正面临非常严重的人力问题，作为一支全志愿军队，俄罗斯的短缺可以很容易地通过征兵解决，并且他们保持着比美国大10倍以上的预备役兵力。正如我们从当前冲突中可以看到的，在一场严肃的战争中，补充伤亡人员的能力非常重要，而美国在这方面远没有达到同样的程度。此外，俄罗斯地面部队现在配备了经验丰富的军官和部队，他们知道如何在现代战场上与近乎对等的对手进行壕沟战和城市战。同样，美国陆军中没有哪个士兵能声称拥有同样的经验。俄罗斯军队的装备也正在迅速适应现代战争的现实。战争初期，每个人都嘲笑俄罗斯的“笼式装甲”，现在没人再笑了。俄罗斯对无人机的战术是正确的，现在所有面对无人机的人都在模仿俄罗斯人，而不是反过来，不信就去看看以色列的“笼式装甲”。最后，俄罗斯地面部队拥有一个非常庞大、经验丰富且成功的无人机部队，目前已整合到连到营级，其中包括电子战反无人机组件。这不是一个小的优势，毫无疑问，这将是未来任何现代军队的重要组成部分，但包括美国在内的西方军队在无人机方面才刚刚开始做俄罗斯已经拥有的事情。简而言之，就地面部队而言，俄罗斯陆军可能领先于美国，这是经验和创新方面差异最大的领域。

In summary, this is my opinion:
Nuclear, the two forces have parity
Projection power the US has peerless lead over Russia
Naval forces the US has a significant lead over Russia
Air force, the US has a lead over Russia
Army, Russia has a significant lead over the USA

总之，这是我的看法：
核力量，两国势均力敌
投射力量，美国对俄罗斯拥有无可匹敌的领先优势
海军力量，美国对俄罗斯拥有显著领先优势
空军，美国对俄罗斯拥有领先优势
陆军，俄罗斯对美国拥有显著领先优势

on Diplomacy & Warfare ·
Huge.
Russia cannot beat Ukraine, a country with 1/3 its population. A county it is adjacent to.
The US controlled Iraq and Afghanistan at the same time, thousands of miles from home.
Russia spent 149 billion on its military expenses in 2024.
In 2024, the US military spent approximately $997 billion on defense.
While not actually at war with anyone.
Ukraine just crushed Russia’s strategic bombers in one day.
The only thing that could stop the US conquering Russia is Russian nukes.

差距巨大。
俄罗斯无法击败乌克兰，一个人口只有其三分之一的国家。一个与它接壤的国家。
美国同时控制了伊拉克和阿富汗，距离本土数千英里。
俄罗斯在2024年的军事开支为1490亿美元。
2024年，美国军费开支约为9970亿美元。
而且美国实际上并未与任何国家处于战争状态。
乌克兰在一天之内就摧毁了俄罗斯的战略轰炸机。
唯一能阻止美国征服俄罗斯的，就是俄罗斯的核武器。

Greg Brecht
The gap between the US and Russia in military terms is enormous. The American defense budget is about ten times the size of Russia’s, mostly because the US economy is more than ten times as large. Three US states each have larger economies than Russia (California, Texas and New York). The US has a population two and a half times as large—336,000,000 to 142,000,000.

美国和俄罗斯在军事上的差距是巨大的。美国的国防预算大约是俄罗斯的十倍，这主要是因为美国经济规模是俄罗斯的十倍以上。美国有三个州（加利福尼亚、得克萨斯州和纽约州）的经济规模都大于俄罗斯。美国的人口是俄罗斯的两倍半——3.36亿对1.42亿。

The US has better artllery, better command and control, more experienced commanders, considerably better trained and better motivated soldiers, sailors and aircrew. American troops are all volunteer, and they are better equipped, better fed and have much better medical care. American munitions are generally more accurate and more reliable. The Russia Navy is significant in the Baltic and Black Seas but on the oceans, is not a significant force.

美国拥有更好的火炮、更好的指挥控制、更有经验的指挥官，以及训练有素、士气更高的士兵、水手和空勤人员。美国军队都是志愿兵，他们装备精良，伙食更好，医疗条件也优越得多。美国的弹药通常更准确、更可靠。俄罗斯海军在波罗的海和黑海有重要地位，但在大洋上，却不是一支重要的力量。

Russia retains potent military forces in its missile submarines and its land based ICBMs and cruise missiles (which can also be carried in subs). The very best Russian equipment is good but there’s not much of it. The very best Russian troops are good, but some of them have been decimated in the invasion of Ukraine.

俄罗斯在其导弹潜艇、陆基洲际弹道导弹和巡航导弹（也可由潜艇携带）方面保留了强大的军事力量。俄罗斯最精良的装备性能优良，但数量不多。俄罗斯最优秀的部队素质很高，但其中一些在入侵乌克兰的行动中遭受了严重损失。

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is showing that the nature of the battlefield is changing rapidly. Drones, highly accurate long range artillery and electronic warfare on the actual battlefield are among factors making numbers less important.

俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的行动表明，战场性质正在迅速变化。无人机、高精度远程火炮和实际战场上的电子战是使兵力数量变得不那么重要的因素之一。

The US has more and far more powerful allies in NATO that any of Russia’s (the North Koreans are not particularly useful as an ally; Russia would be the junior partner in alny alliance with China). France and Britain each have quite powerful strategic nuclear forces. In Asia, South Korea has one of the most potent conventional militaries anywhere, and Japan has quietly become a powerful military.

美国在北约拥有比俄罗斯任何盟友都多且强大得多的盟友（朝鲜作为盟友并不是特别有用；俄罗斯在与中国的任何联盟中都将是次要伙伴）。法国和英国各自拥有相当强大的战略核力量。在亚洲，韩国拥有世界上最强大的常规军队之一，日本也悄然成为一支强大的军事力量。