QA回答：越南土地面积有限是否会成为像中国一样的制造业大国的重大障碍？

Li Pengii
Limited landmass? Vietnam is absolutely massive.
The Mercator projection makes Vietnam look small.

国土面积有限？越南绝对是个大国。
墨卡托投影法让越南看起来很小。

Maxence Gomez
Vietnam had Indeed a limited landmass of only 330 000 SQ km roughly equal to 3,5%of the Chinese landmass.
But, Vietnam has a huge geographic advantage. The Vietnamese seashore is more than 3000 km long. That's an asset regarding the integration of vietnamese manufacturing into global logistics. No need for costly land transportation, factories can be built directly on the sea replicating the Chinese success.
There's about 100 million Vietnamese living in Vietnam and Vietnam can also rely on an important diaspora living all around the world .
That's why Vietnam is poised to becoming an industrial powerhouse

越南的国土面积确实有限，只有大约33万平方公里，大约相当于中国国土面积的3.5%。
但是，越南拥有巨大的地理优势。越南的海岸线长达3000多公里。这对于将越南制造业融入全球物流体系来说是一项资产。无需昂贵的陆路运输，工厂可以直接建在海边，复制中国的成功。
越南国内约有1亿越南人，越南还可以依靠遍布世界各地的重要海外侨民。
这就是为什么越南有望成为一个工业强国。

Khengchat Ng
A lot of the manufacturing in China is in Guangdong Province.which is a third of the land area of Vietnam. Vietnam has the added advantage of a long coastline compared to land area. With a centralised government control, it should take off as a manufacturing giant.

中国的很多制造业集中在广东省，其面积仅为越南国土面积的三分之一。与其国土面积相比，越南还拥有海岸线长的额外优势。凭借中央集权政府的管控，它应该能崛起成为一个制造业巨头。
天 蓝

Land area is not the biggest obstacle to becoming a manufacturing power. The four earliest most developed manufacturing regions in Asia: Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan, all have very small land areas. There are only three factors that are most sensitive in modern industry, manufacturing and precision processing:
Labor cost
Production cycle
Supply chain advantage
Labor costs cannot be simply viewed as who is cheaper. What modern production lines need is a group of workers who have received basic education and have the ability to think and execute.
The production cycle refers to the production of more products within a specific period of time while ensuring production quality. This is related to the scale of the enterprise, the size of the workforce and the level of management.
Supply chain advantage refers to choosing suppliers with lower prices and higher coverage within an acceptable cost range.
At present, Vietnam meets the first two points, but the third point is difficult to meet. Vietnam is a long and narrow country with no railway or highway network covering the whole country. Its supply chain is highly dependent on China's railway and maritime trade. I think the Vietnamese government has recognized this problem. Their new government plan has begun to build the Hanoi-Ho Chi Minh high-speed railway, and is cooperating with China on standard gauge railway standards.
It is hard to say what the future will be like, but I just hope that Vietnam can cherish China’s industrial expertise, improve its own industrialization rate, and eliminate political interference from other countries (I’m talking about the United States).

国土面积并非成为制造业强国的最大障碍。亚洲最早最发达的四个制造业地区：香港（特区）、新加坡、韩国和台湾（地区），土地面积都非常小。现代工业、制造业和精密加工中最敏感的只有三个因素：
劳动力成本
生产周期
供应链优势
劳动力成本不能简单地看谁更便宜。现代生产线需要的是一群受过基础教育、具备思考和执行能力的工人。
生产周期是指在保证生产质量的前提下，在特定时间内生产出更多产品。这关系到企业规模、劳动力规模和管理水平。
供应链优势是指在可接受的成本范围内选择价格更低、覆盖范围更广的供应商。
目前，越南满足了前两点，但第三点很难满足。越南是一个狭长的国家，没有覆盖全国的铁路或高速公路网。其供应链高度依赖中国的铁路和海上贸易。我认为越南政府已经认识到这个问题。他们的新政府计划已开始建设河内至胡志明市的高速铁路，并在标准轨距铁路标准方面与中国合作。
未来会怎样很难说，但我只是希望越南能珍惜中国的工业专长，提高自身的工业化率，并消除其他国家的政治干预（我说的是美国）。

Christian Donzel
The need for competing with China doesn’t exist for Vietnam. The idea of impoverishing itself for becoming more powerful is only a masochistic MAGA myth. The Vietnamese government just aims at improving the lifestyle of the persons that live in Vietnam.

越南没有与中国竞争的必要。那种认为通过让自己变穷来变得更强大的想法只是一个自虐式的MAGA神话。越南政府的目标只是改善生活在越南的人的生活方式。

Sapun Jyoti Bhuyan
Vietnam known as Land of the Blue Dragon is situated on the edge of southeast Asia is actually not a small country, area wise vietnam contains 128,000 sq miles and 66th in the world and 19th position in Asia in terms of land mass. vietnam being a coastal country have the advantage to expand its trade via sea route and vietnam doing well in this sector.

越南被称为蓝龙之地，位于东南亚边缘，实际上并非小国。就面积而言，越南拥有128,000平方英里（约33万平方公里）的国土，在世界上排名第66位，在亚洲排名第19位。越南作为一个沿海国家，拥有通过海路拓展贸易的优势，并且越南在这方面做得很好。

From the very outset of its civilization vietnam always attract foreign invaders and this land was partly or fully occupied by various powers and remain under colonial administration for years and finally in 1954 it divided into three parts, history of vietnam was full of bloodshed and terror, Cần Vương movement,Thái Nguyên uprising, Yên Bái mutiny, battle of Điện Biên Phủ, 2nd world war, Tết Offensive and usa-vietman conflict ruin the peace and harmony of this land. besides the hills mountains the continuous rainy seasons , the whole topography make serious obstacles in its growth, several weak governments and their policies also hampered a lot however with the start of new millennia vietnam begun to rise under some capable administrators the begun to establish good alliances with its neighboring nations and also uplift its global image.

自文明伊始，越南就不断吸引外国入侵者，这片土地曾部分或全部被多个列强占领，并处于殖民统治下达数年之久，最终在1954年被分成三部分。越南的历史充满了流血和恐怖，勤王运动、太原起义、安沛兵变、奠边府战役、第二次世界大战、春节攻势以及美越冲突，都破坏了这片土地的和平与和谐。除了丘陵山脉和连绵的雨季，整个地形对其发展构成了严重障碍，几个软弱的政府及其政策也造成了很多阻碍。然而，随着新千年的开始，在一些有能力的治理者领导下，越南开始崛起，开始与邻国建立良好联盟，并提升其全球形象。

vietnam was mainly depend upon its agriculture and agriculture is the main source of their economy but gradually their government begun to open this arms and established trade alliance with USSR and its allies , they also introduct 5 years plans and give importance upon the production of rice, they also mine Bauxite, aluminium and after the fall of USSR they open their trades for the world and introduct liberal policies which help vietnam to grow and their GDP begun to gain rapid pace , now in 2024 their nominal GDP is about 465 billion USD and PPP GDP is 1.559 trillion, per Per capita GDP is $4,622 which is much higher then India, Human devlopment index is in high with 0.766

越南过去主要依赖农业，农业是其经济的主要来源。但渐渐地，其政府开始开放门户，与苏联及其盟友建立贸易联盟，他们还引入了五年计划，并重视水稻生产，他们也开采铝土矿和铝。苏联解体后，他们向世界开放贸易并引入自由化政策，这帮助越南实现了增长，其GDP开始快速增长。如今在2024年，其名义GDP约为4650亿美元，购买力平价（PPP）GDP为1.559万亿美元，人均GDP为4,622美元，远高于印度，人类发展指数（HDI）高达0.766。

China a major powerhouse in the current world establish so many infra in vietnam and use its ports for trade , vietnam become hub of so many manufacturing companies and vietnam continue towards growth and rise like a mega economic force in Asia. after chinas deteriorating relations with EU, India and USA china used vietnam as its proxy to run business and for this vietnam gain so much profit and name for itself in the world, Vietnamese military also rapidly strengthened itself and begun to dominate in Asia.

中国作为当今世界的主要强国，在越南建立了大量基础设施并利用其港口进行贸易，越南已成为众多制造公司的中心，并持续朝着增长和崛起的方向发展，成为亚洲的一支巨大经济力量。在中国与欧盟、印度和美国关系恶化之后，中国利用越南作为其代理人开展业务，越南也因此获得了巨大利润并在世界上赢得了声誉。越南军队也迅速壮大，并开始在亚洲占据主导地位。

Philip L
The premise is wrong.
Land mass is counter productive to a manufacturing powerhouse.
Manufacturers collocate, not disburse, logistics is an inconvenience until manufacturing gets too big. Are Korea, Japan, etc not manufacturing giants?
And as Li pointed out, Vietnam is by no means small.
Factors impacting Vietnam in manufacturing geopolitically, is whether it has good infrastructure (freight, ports) and people (population in manufacturing hubs).

前提是错的。
国土面积对制造业强国是起反作用的。
制造商是聚集（collocate），而不是分散（disburse）。在制造业规模变得过大之前，物流只是个麻烦。韩国、日本等难道不是制造业巨头吗？
而且正如Li指出的，越南绝非小国。
在地缘政治上影响越南制造业的因素是，它是否拥有良好的基础设施（货运、港口）和人力资源（制造业中心的人口）。

Michael Moody
Not in my opinion. Vietnam has lots of rivers. Transport from the interior to the coast and then on to world markets would not be difficult. That said, I think the time of global markets is over. It leads to a concentration of income opportunities and investment opportunities in the hands of very few. That will not work in a world of 8 billion. A new paradigm is badly needed.

在我看来并非如此。越南有很多河流。从内陆到海岸再转运到世界市场的运输不会困难。话虽如此，我认为全球市场的时代已经结束。它导致收入机会和投资机会集中在极少数人手中。在一个拥有80亿人口的世界里，这行不通。迫切需要一个新的模式。

Drew Nelles
Samsung Mobile Phones, Samsung TV’s, most printers and scanners for most computer brands, Yamaha Motor Bikes, Honda Motor Bikes. Vinacar (yes, local grown car manufacturer), to name but a few that come to the top of my head.
Japan and South Korea both have an enormous manufacturing presence in Vietnam that is widely visible and expanding.
From the CIA Factbook (sourced 4 August 2019): Exports, “clothes, shoes, electronics, seafood, crude oil, rice, coffee, wooden products, machinery”. Industry: 33% (of total economy). Industries: food processing, garments, shoes, machine-building; mining, coal, steel; cement, chemical fertilizer, glass, tires, oil, mobile phones [bold added for emphasis]
I’ve read elsewhere (can’t remember the source) that 10% of the total economy is manufacturing for foreign companies (i.e. Samsung, Honda, etc).
All the above data is pre: Trade War (China-US), so those numbers will grow significantly. The latest worry is that Vietnam (population 100 million) will run out of people needed to manufacture things.
They are about 15 years behind China, yes. But if you think in 15 years from now they won’t be ahead of where China is now, you would be greatly mistaken. They manufacture a lot, mostly for foreigners currently, but they are beginning (see Vinacar) to take their first steps at developing their own products too.
So to answer your question directly, “yes, Vietnam can”

三星手机、三星电视、大多数电脑品牌的大部分打印机和扫描仪、雅马哈摩托车、本田摩托车。Vinacar（是的，本土汽车制造商），仅举我脑海中立刻浮现的几个例子。
日本和韩国在越南都有巨大且不断扩张的制造业存在，这有目共睹。
摘自CIA Factbook（2019年8月4日数据）：出口产品，“服装、鞋类、电子产品、海产品、原油、大米、咖啡、木制品、机械”。工业：占经济总量的33%。工业包括：食品加工、服装、鞋类、机械制造；采矿、煤炭、钢铁；水泥、化肥、玻璃、轮胎、石油、手机 [加粗以示强调]
我在别处读到过（不记得来源了），整个经济中有10%是为外国公司（如三星、本田等）进行制造。
以上所有数据都在贸易战（中美）之前，因此这些数字将显著增长。最新的担忧是越南（1亿人口）将耗尽制造产品所需的人力。
是的，他们大约落后中国15年。但如果你认为15年后他们不会超过中国现在的水平，那你就大错特错了。他们制造很多东西，目前主要是为外国公司代工，但他们已经开始（见Vinacar）迈出开发自己产品的第一步。
所以直接回答你的问题，“是的，越南能行”

Dzung Le
When I had factories tours in Vietnam, I found that many state owned factories can manufacture things excellently if the quality is the priority, but productivity can’t meet modern need.
For example, they can make very big and expensive gear, ie. 5 meters of diameter, but unable to satisfy big orders for cheap and small gears which is more popular to market economy.
It’s about technology, outdated technology in state owned factories made the growth slow.
Among state owned factories, military factories have the advantage of newer technology and scale, but the best would be domestic vendors for FDI like Honda, Yamaha, Samsung .. they were transferred technology from Japan… with Japanese engineers come to support.

当我在越南参观工厂时，我发现许多国有工厂如果以质量为优先，可以制造出非常出色的产品，但其生产力无法满足现代需求。
例如，他们可以制造非常大且昂贵的齿轮，比如直径5米的，但却无法满足市场经济中更受欢迎的小型廉价齿轮的大订单需求。
这关乎技术，国有工厂中过时的技术导致增长缓慢。
在国有工厂中，军用工厂拥有较新技术和规模的优点，但最好的是那些为外商直接投资（FDI）服务的本土供应商，如本田、雅马哈、三星……他们从日本获得了技术转让……并有日本工程师前来支持。

Ngoc Diep Hoang
While Vietnam can only manufacture light industry stuffs (such as clothings, shoes, etc.), and provide cheap labours to international brands (such as Samsung, Foxconn, various car brands, etc.) due to the incompetent and corrupted Vietnam communist Party (VCP) especially in human resource factor, Vietnam has high potentials to grow.
With its hard-working intelligent people, its strategic location… Vietnam only need a new government system which is not corrupted (by counter-checking by various opposition parties) and can form adequate policies (by employing various think-tanks inputs) to expose and utilise local and Vietnamse expats skills in mid. and high management levels as well as its expat. resources in talents and in connections.

尽管由于越共（VCP）的无能且腐败（尤其在人力资源因素上），越南目前只能制造轻工业产品（如服装、鞋类等），并为国际品牌（如三星、富士康、各类汽车品牌等）提供廉价劳动力，但越南具有巨大的增长潜力。
凭借其勤劳智慧的人民、其战略位置……越南只需要一个不腐败（通过各反对党的制衡）并能制定适当政策（通过采纳各智库的意见）的新政府体系，来发掘和利用本土及越南侨民在中高层管理上的技能，以及其海外侨民在人才和人脉方面的资源。