Apple boosts India's factory hopes - but a US-China deal could derail plans
Just as India showed flickers of progress toward its long-held dream of becoming the world's factory, Washington and Beijing announced a trade "reset" that could derail Delhi's ambitions to replace China as the global manufacturing hub.

苹果加码印度制造遇变数，中美贸易"重启"或动摇"世界工厂"替代计划
正当印度朝着"世界工厂"的梦想迈出踌躇步伐之际，中美宣布贸易关系"重启"，这可能会使新德里取代中国成为全球制造业中心的雄心受挫。



Last week, Trump's tariffs on China dropped overnight - from 145% to 30%, vs 27% for India - as the two sides thrashed out an agreement in Switzerland.

上周，随着中美在瑞士达成协议，美国对华关税税率一夜之间从145%降至30%，而对印关税仍维持在27%水平。

As a result, there's a chance manufacturing investment that was moving from China to India could either "stall" or "head back", feels Ajay Srivastava of the Delhi-based think tank, Global Trade Research Institute (GTRI).

因此，总部位于德里的智库“全球贸易研究所”的专家阿贾伊·斯里瓦斯塔瓦认为，那些原本从中国转移至印度的制造业投资，现在有可能“停滞”或“回流”。

"India's low-cost assembly lines may survive, but value-added growth is in danger."

"印度的低成本装配线或许能够存活，但价值链升级面临威胁。"

The change in sentiment stands in sharp relief to the exuberance in Delhi last month when Apple indicated that it was shifting most of its production of iPhones headed to the US from China to India.

这种市场情绪的转变，与上个月新德里方面的热烈反应形成了鲜明对比。当时，苹果公司表示正将其大部分销往美国的iPhone生产线从中国转移至印度。

That may well still happen, even though US President Donald Trump revealed that he had told Apple CEO Tim Cook not to build in India because it was "one of the highest tariff nations in the world".

尽管特朗普总统公开表示曾告诫苹果CEO库克"印度是全球关税最高的国家之一"，但该计划仍可能持续推进。

"India is well positioned to be an alternative to China as a supplier of goods to the US in the immediate term," Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics, wrote in an investor note before the deal was announced. He pointed out that 40% of India's exports to the US were "similar to those exported by China".

凯投宏观的经济学家Shilan Shah在该中美协议宣布前的一份投资者报告中写道：“短期内，印度完全有能力成为中国之外、美国商品供应的另一个选择。”他指出，对美出口商品中40%与中国输美商品存在重合。

There were early signs that Indian exporters were already stepping in to fill the gap left by Chinese producers. New export orders surged to a 14-year high, according to a recent survey of Indian manufacturers.

早期迹象表明印度出口商已开始填补中国同行留下的空白。根据近期一项对印度制造商的调查，新增出口订单飙升至14年来的最高点。

Nomura, a Japanese broking house, also pointed to growing "anecdotal evidence" of India emerging as a winner from "trade diversion and supply-chain shift in low and mid-tech manufacturing" particularly in sectors like electronics, textiles and toys.

日本野村证券也指出，越来越多的“坊间证据”表明，印度正从“中低端制造业的贸易转移和供应链转移”中脱颖而出，尤其是在电子、纺织和玩具等行业。

Some analysts do believe that despite the so-called trade "reset" between Beijing and Washington, a larger strategic decoupling between China and the US will continue to benefit India in the long run.

部分分析师确实认为，尽管北京与华盛顿之间达成了所谓的贸易“重启”协议，但从长远来看，中美之间更大范围的战略脱钩仍将使印度受益。

For one, there's greater willingness by Narendra Modi's government to open its doors to foreign companies after years of protectionist policies, which could provide tailwind.

其一，莫迪政府在实行多年保护主义政策后，如今更愿意向外国公司敞开大门，这可能成为一股推动力。

India and the US are also negotiating a trade deal that could put Asia's third-largest economy in a sweet spot to benefit from the so-called "China exodus" - as global firms shift operations to diversify supply chains.

印度和美国也正在进行贸易协定谈判，这可能使这个亚洲第三大经济体处于有利地位，从所谓的"去中国化"产业转移中占据有利位置。

India has just signed a trade pact with the UK, sharply cutting duties in protected sectors like whiskey and automobiles. It offers a glimpse of the concessions Delhi might offer Trump in the ongoing India-US trade talks.

印度刚刚与英国签署了一项贸易协定，大幅削减了威士忌和汽车等受保护行业的关税。这让外界得以一窥在进行中的印美贸易谈判中，新德里可能向特朗普政府作出的让步。

But all of this optimism needs to be tempered for more reasons than one.

然而，所有这些乐观情绪都需要因多种原因而有所降温。

Apart from the fact that China is now back in the running, companies are also "not entirely writing off other Asian competitors, with countries like Vietnam still on their radars", economists Sonal Verma and Aurodeep Nandi from Nomura said in a note earlier this month.

野村证券的经济学家 Sonal Verma和Aurodeep Nandi在本月早些时候的一份报告中表示，除了中国现在重回竞争行列这一事实外，企业也“并未完全排除其他亚洲竞争对手，越南等国家仍在它们的关注范围内”。

"Hence, for India to capitalise on this opportunity, it needs to complement any tariff arbitrage with serious ease-of-doing-business reforms."

“因此，印度若想抓住这一机遇，就需要在利用任何潜在的关税套利空间的同时，辅以切实的营商便利化改革。”

A tough business climate has long frustrated foreign investors and stalled India's manufacturing growth, with its share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) stuck at around 15% for two decades.

印度严峻的营商环境长期以来令外国投资者感到沮丧，并阻碍了印度制造业的增长，其制造业占国内生产总值（GDP）的比重二十年来一直停滞在15%左右。

The Modi government's efforts, such as the Production lixed Incentive (PLI) scheme, have delivered only limited success in boosting this figure.

莫迪政府所做的努力，例如“生产关联激励”计划，在提升这一数字方面仅取得了有限的成功。

The government's think tank, Niti Aayog, has acknowledged India's "limited success" in attracting investment shifting from China. It noted that factors like cheaper labour, simpler tax laws, lower tariffs, and proactive Free Trade Agreements helped countries like Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Malaysia expand exports - while India lagged behind.

印度政府智库“国家转型委员会”坦承，印度在吸引从中国转移出来的投资方面“成效有限”。该机构指出，更廉价的劳动力、更简化的税法、更低的关税以及积极的自由贸易协定等因素，帮助越南、泰国、柬埔寨和马来西亚等国扩大了出口，而印度则明显落后。