当对外国商品征收关税时，为什么美国制造的产品不会变得更便宜？

Why don't American-made products become cheaper when tariffs are placed on foreign goods?

当对外国商品征收关税时，为什么美国制造的产品不会变得更便宜？

Jay Valenci
I purchased a Japanese made Mazda CX-5 back in November in anticipation of the tariffs. I'm certainly glad I did because not only is it a great car, but the 25% tariff will raise the price from $35,000 to $43,750. Guaranteed the American car companies will raise prices accordingly. Maybe not the entire 25%, but close. As many of you have pointed out, American cars are loaded with foreign made parts. They do not get to escape tariffs. That's just how capitalism works.
Used car prices will also go up because of increased demand from consumers who are priced out of the new car market.
Trump is telling you that tariffs are going to make us rich. That's fine as long as you realize that the tariff money is coming from you in order to pay for the tax cut for the rich.
Tariffs were actually the primary method for the Federal government to raise revenue up until the income tax was established by the 16th Amendment in 1913. Income tax was only imposed on incomes over $3000 which is about $96,000 today. In other words if you were earning $3000 in 1913, you were doing well. The income tax was meant to replace the regressive tariff tax system with a progressive income tax system.
Today Trump is doing just the opposite. Making the rich richer on the backs of working people.
How anyone can support this makes no sense to me.

早在 11 月我就买了一辆日本产的马自达 CX-5，当时就是考虑到关税的问题。我确实很高兴自己当时做了这个决定，因为这辆车不仅很棒，而且 25% 的关税会让它的价格从 35000 美元涨到 43750 美元。可以肯定的是，美国的汽车公司也会相应地提高价格。也许不会涨 25%，但也会接近这个幅度。正如你们很多人指出的那样，美国汽车里装满了外国制造的零部件。它们也逃不过关税。这就是资本主义的运作方式。
由于消费者在新车市场中因价格过高而被挤出，二手车的需求增加，二手车的价格也将上涨。
特朗普在告诉你，关税会让我们变得富有。这没问题，只要你知道关税的钱是从你身上来的，是为了给富人减税。
关税实际上一直是联邦政府的主要收入来源，直到 1913 年第十六修正案确立了所得税制度。当时所得税仅对超过 3000 美元的收入征收，相当于如今的 96000 美元。换句话说，1913 年如果你的收入达到 3000 美元，那就算不错了。所得税旨在用累进的所得税制度取代累退的关税制度。如今特朗普却反其道而行之，让富人更富，而牺牲的是工薪阶层的利益。有人支持这种做法，我实在想不通。

Ross Langerak
One of the reasons used to justify tariffs, is that they will make American products more competitive. The cost of materials doesn’t change. The cost of labor doesn’t change. The fact that the American retailer can increase prices is what makes it competitive.
Suppose you have a car dealer with 50 foreign cars and 50 American cars, and 100 customers who want to buy a car at the current price. Now suppose the government puts a tariff on the foreign cars that effectively blocks entry. The dealer now has 50 American cars and no foreign cars, and 100 customers who want to buy a car at the current price. The dealer will increase the price until 50 customers want to buy a car at the new price. That is not price gouging. That is basic economics. That is the demand side of supply and demand. You cannot get around supply and demand.

关税得以合理化的理由之一是，它会让美国产品更具竞争力。原材料成本不变，劳动力成本也不变。美国零售商能够提价，这才是其竞争力所在。假设你有一个汽车经销商，有 50 辆外国车和 50 辆美国车，有 100 名顾客想以当前价格买车。现在假设政府对外国车征收关税，实际上阻止了外国车的进入。经销商现在有 50 辆美国车，没有外国车，而 100 名顾客仍想以当前价格买车。经销商会提价，直到 50 名顾客愿意以新价格买车。这并非哄抬物价，这是基本的经济学原理。这是供求关系中的需求方。你无法绕过供求关系。

Some prices will go down. Products that are normally exported will lose foreign customers. They will have to lower prices to sell everything they produce to the smaller market inside the US. Some of them will fail. Normally, with less product on the market, prices would go back up, but failing businesses leave unemployment in their wake. Prices will remain low as retailers are forced to sell to customers who have less money.
Boeing sells airplanes to customers all over the world. If retaliatory tariffs prevent the sale of aircraft outside the US, the shrunken market will force Boeing to reduce production, resulting in layoffs. People will have less money to buy cars, and televisions, and Christmas presents. Boeing will have less money for R&D, causing Boeing to fall behind Airbus in aircraft design. When the tariffs are lifted, Boeing will be at a disadvantage, both in production and design. Hopefully, Boeing will be able to catch up, but as someone much smarter than me once said, hope is not a plan.

一些商品的价格会下降。通常出口的产品会失去外国客户。它们不得不降低价格，以便将生产的所有产品都销售给美国国内这个规模更小的市场。其中一些企业将会倒闭。通常情况下，由于市场上产品减少，价格会回升，但倒闭的企业会留下失业问题。由于零售商被迫向手头更紧的顾客销售商品，价格将保持低位。 波音公司向世界各地的客户销售飞机。如果报复性关税阻止其向美国以外的地区销售飞机，萎缩的市场将迫使波音公司减少产量，从而导致裁员。人们将有更少的钱购买汽车、电视和圣诞礼物。波音公司将有更少的资金用于研发，这将导致波音公司在飞机设计方面落后于空客。当关税取消时，波音公司在生产和设计方面都将处于劣势。希望波音公司能够迎头赶上，但正如一位比我聪明得多的人曾经说过的那样，希望不是计划。

This is what Trump gave us the last time he was in charge.
Is that what you want for the US economy?
We had a choice between a prosecutor and a criminal, and Republicans chose the criminal.
Democrats warned us about Trump. It could take decades to recover from Trump. Even then, recovery will only happen if the dumbest half of the US population doesn’t force another disaster like Trump on us. Rather than voter ID, maybe what we need is a voter IQ test.

这就是特朗普上次执政时给我们带来的局面。这就是你们想要的美国经济吗？我们当时面临着检察官和罪犯之间的选择，而共和党选择了罪犯。民主党曾警告过我们特朗普的危险。从特朗普造成的破坏中恢复过来可能需要几十年的时间。即便如此，只有当美国最愚蠢的那半数人口不再把另一个像特朗普这样的灾难强加给我们时，恢复才有可能实现。与其搞选民身份认证，或许我们更需要的是选民智商测试。

Kevin Douglas
A tariff doesn’t do anything to make American-made goods cheaper. So even in the best case scenario, American goods will cost the same as they did before.
The best case scenario basically doesn’t exist, most companies depend on foreign made goods which means that a tariff increases their input costs. They have to raise prices in order to make a profit. So not only will American made goods not get cheaper, they will almost certainly get more expensive.
Competition pushes down prices. Tariffs artificially harm the competition. This means American businesses can and will raise prices a bit if the competition becomes less fierce as a result of tariffs.
But you don't have to believe me, just take a look at how the markets reacted to so-called Liberation Day. Trillions of dollars in market value wiped out with a simple announcement.
And these investors are not libs like me. They are people who solely care about making a sh*t ton of money. Many of them celebrated the return of Trump in January.
The overwhelming response of these investors to Liberation Day was panic. Because they realize what an incredibly foolish act of economic suicide this was and they're planning accordingly.

关税并不能让美国制造的商品变得更便宜。所以即使在最好的情况下，美国商品的价格也会和以前一样。但这种最好的情况实际上并不存在，大多数公司都依赖外国制造的商品，这意味着关税会增加它们的投入成本。它们不得不提高价格才能盈利。所以美国制造的商品不仅不会变得更便宜，几乎肯定会变得更贵。
竞争会压低价格。关税人为地损害竞争。这意味着，如果关税导致竞争不那么激烈，美国企业就能够而且将会稍微提高价格。但您不必相信我，只需看看市场对所谓的“解放日”的反应就知道了。仅仅一个简单的声明，就蒸发了数万亿美元的市值。
而且这些投资者可不是像我这样的左派。他们只关心赚大钱。他们当中很多人在 1 月特朗普回归时还欢呼雀跃。这些投资者对解放日的反应几乎是一片恐慌。因为他们意识到这是多么愚蠢的经济自杀行为，于是开始相应地做打算。

Claire Jordan
Imagine that item X costs $25, whether it’s locally made or imported.
Now put a 20% tariff on the imported version. Now the imported version costs $30 and the local version costs $25.
Why would the local manufacturer drop their price? On the contrary they’ll probably raise it to $28, because the fact that the imported version now costs so much more means that they can raise their prices and still be competitive.
In addition, many US-made products use materials and components which they import, and which will now be more expensive, pushing up the cost of production. If you’re in the US, virtually everything you buy is about to become a lot more expensive.

假设商品无论是本地生产还是进口，售价均为 25 美元。现在对进口商品征收 20% 的关税。这样一来，进口商品售价变为 30 美元，而本地商品仍为 25 美元。本地制造商为何要降低价格呢？相反，他们很可能会把价格提高到 28 美元，因为进口商品现在价格大幅上涨，这意味着他们可以提高价格且仍具有竞争力。此外，许多美国制造的产品使用进口的材料和零部件，这些材料和零部件现在会更贵，从而推高生产成本。如果你在美国，几乎你购买的所有东西很快都会变得贵很多。

Gabor Vajay
Because American businesses see FREE MONEY! and can’t help themselves.
Imagine if you will you are competing with a foreign business making the exact same thing as you. The doo-dad you both make sells for $100 and costs you and him $75 to make, lets say.
Your foreign competitor pissed off the government (or, as has happened many times in the past already (think steel as just one example)) YOU lobbied the government for help and the nice government imposed tariffs on your foreign competitor of (lets say, to keep the arithmetic simple) $100 on the $100 doo-dad. You now have a huge advantage, you shark you, by getting your fine government to give you a pricing advantage on your foreign competitor of … $100 per doo-dad. After all it costs you $75 to make one and while it still costs your competitor $75 to make one, you can sell yours for $100 as usual, but his doo-dad costs his American customers $200 (because the government takes $100 too). Notice he still only makes the same $75, same as you.

因为美国企业看到“免费的钱！”就管不住自己了。想象一下，你和一家外国企业生产完全一样的东西。你们生产的这个小玩意售价 100 美元，成本都是 75 美元。假设你的外国竞争对手惹恼了政府（或者像过去多次发生的情况那样，比如钢铁行业），你游说政府帮忙，政府就对你的外国竞争对手征收关税，比如说，对 100 美元的小玩意征收 100 美元的关税。这样一来，你就获得了巨大的优势，你这个精明鬼，通过让政府给你提供价格优势，每件小玩意比你的外国竞争对手多赚 100 美元。毕竟你生产一件的成本还是 75 美元，而你的竞争对手生产一件的成本也还是 75 美元，但你可以像往常一样以 100 美元出售，而他的小玩意卖给美国客户就要 200 美元（因为政府还要收 100 美元）。注意，他赚的还是 75 美元，和你一样。

You should have no trouble cornering the doo-dad market since you can sell yours for $100, right? But that is not what happens, because, well, because business, greed and sadly, human nature. You go, “Wow, I can charge $200 per doo-dad too and make $125 profit!” And so you do because you are a genius business person. And you say, “Come get your Made in America doo-dads, same price as that foreign brand, $200!” BUY AMERICAN!
And if you think it wouldn’t happen, well it does, and it did. The American steel industry lobbied for tariffs and when they got them they raised their prices for the free money, and went out of business anyway.
If someone’s competitor gets an artificial disadvantage, that someone, 99 times out of 100 will raise prices to match, rather than just keep taking the fair profit that was perfectly acceptable just yesterday.

既然你能以 100 美元的价格出售你的小玩意儿，那你就应该能轻松垄断这个市场，对吧？但事实并非如此，因为生意、贪婪，还有可悲的人性。你会想：“哇，我也可以把每个小玩意儿卖到 200 美元，赚 125 美元的利润！”于是你就这么做了，因为你是个天才商人。然后你会说：“快来买美国制造的小玩意儿吧，跟那个外国品牌一样，只要 200 美元！”买美国货！ 如果你认为这种情况不会发生，那你就错了，这种情况确实会发生，而且已经发生过。美国钢铁业游说政府征收关税，当他们如愿以偿后，却为了多赚点钱而提高价格，结果还是倒闭了。如果某人的竞争对手获得了不公平的优势，那么这个人 100次中有99次会提高价格以保持平衡，而不是继续赚取昨天还觉得完全合理的利润。

Another example, that fine excuse for a human Martin Skreli raised drug prices 5,000% just because he could. His costs of production had nothing to do with it. Insulin went from “free” (Banting and Best (Canada) gave it away to the world), then America got hold of it and marked it up to the moon, because why not.

另一个例子，那个所谓的“人”马丁·斯克雷利仅仅因为他能这么做就把药价提高了 5000%。生产成本跟他毫无关系。胰岛素从“免费”（加拿大人班廷和贝斯特将其免费赠予全世界）到美国接手后价格飙升至天价，因为能这样干为什么不去干呢。

Jason Thomson
Because the usa can't produce everything it needs without foreign parts. There's not a single car made in the usa that is 100% American. The usa is a net import country and relies on many other countries for its raw materials, so while you may purchase American made then over the coming months you will see prices rise due to the tariffs. The 200% alcohol tariff will hit hard as there's alcoholic drinks the usa just cannot make such as champagne, irish whiskey, scotch whisky and Guinness. At current average price this could make a pint of Guinness $30!
Another thing to consider about who is ripping off the usa- Canada invented insulin which has saved millions if not billions of lives. Canada fave the world insulin for free. Most countries sell it at cost price, in many countries it is free for the patient. In the usa the average cost is EIGHTY DOLLARS! Americans have been ripped off from withing for decades.

因为美国无法在没有外国零部件的情况下生产出其所需的一切。美国制造的汽车没有一款是百分之百美国货。美国是一个净进口国，依赖许多其他国家提供原材料，所以尽管你可能在接下来的几个月里购买到美国制造的产品，但你会看到由于关税的原因价格会上涨。200%的酒精关税将对美国造成沉重打击，因为美国无法生产诸如香槟、爱尔兰威士忌、苏格兰威士忌和健力士黑啤等酒类。按照目前的平均价格，这可能会使一杯健力士黑啤的价格达到 30 美元！ 另一个需要考虑的问题是，谁在坑害美国——胰岛素是由加拿大发明的，拯救了数百万甚至数十亿人的生命。加拿大免费向世界提供了胰岛素。大多数国家以成本价出售，许多国家对患者免费。而在美国，平均价格是 80 美元！几十年来，美国人一直被本国企业坑害。

Angela Birch
Because American made goods essentially have costs to consider in the pricing. First a lot of American made goods are assembled using imported goods which are tariffed, next the costs in the US are greater. Costs are everything from building the factory to electrical power to run it the costs of equipment ( often tariffed) and the cost of maintaining then and the wages and benefits are massively higher. Things made in the US are priced higher because the costs are higher. Workers are not going to show up to work if their wages go from $10 an hour to $4.95 a day. The electric company is not going to drop their rates for a US manufacturing company because they also have fixed costs. A repair company for equipment isn’t going to cut their charges by 80%. Manufacturing moved over seas because the costs are so much less. A lot of companies operating in the US have cut their prices to the bone in an attempt to compete and their prices have no more room to be cut.
There is also another consideration if they can’t compete on price because the fixed costs are higher why would they drop their prices when the competition vanishes or becomes more expensive. They will RAISE their prices to just slightly below that of the tariffed goods.

因为美国制造的商品在定价时要考虑成本。首先，很多美国制造的商品是用进口零部件组装的，而这些零部件要交关税；其次，美国的成本更高。成本包括从建厂到供电，再到设备（往往要交关税）的费用，以及设备的维护费用，还有工资和福利，这些都高得多。美国制造的东西价格更高是因为成本更高。如果工人的工资从每小时 10 美元降到每天 4.95 美元，他们就不会来上班了。电力公司也不会因为一家美国制造企业而降低电价，因为他们也有固定成本。设备维修公司也不会把费用降低 80%。制造业转移到海外是因为成本低得多。很多在美国经营的公司已经把价格压到最低来竞争，价格已经没有再降的空间了。如果他们无法在价格上竞争，因为固定成本更高，那么当竞争消失或变得更昂贵时，他们为什么要降低价格呢？他们会把价格提高到略低于加征关税的商品的价格。

Christian Winter
Because there is no incentive to lower prices when your competition has their prices artificially increased. To the contrary, actually. Depending on how much the competition’s prices are increased, there might still be room to increase your own prices as long as you stay cheaper than them.
Lowering your own prices under such circumstances would only reduce your profits, provided you couldn’t counter that with higher sales. If you could do that however you would do it independently from your competition’s prices being increased.
Just face it: tariffs will not make your life cheaper. It will make it more expensive and the money will go to someone else, the very same someone by the way who will pocket the surplus generated with the tariffs in form of tax cuts. So basically the tariffs are just a double tax you pay to the Trumps and Musks. Congratulations, you double-screwed yourself.
Original question: Why don't American-made products become cheaper when tariffs are placed on foreign goods?

因为当你的竞争对手的价格被人为抬高时，你就没有降价的动力。实际上，恰恰相反。只要你的价格比他们低，即便他们的价格被抬高很多，你仍有可能提高自己的价格。在这种情况下，除非你能通过增加销量来弥补，否则降价只会减少你的利润。而且，即便你能做到这一点，也与竞争对手的价格上涨无关。所以，面对现实吧：关税不会让你的生活成本降低。它只会让你的生活成本增加，而多出来的钱会落入别人腰包，顺便说一句，这些人还会以减税的形式把关税带来的盈余收入囊中。所以，关税实际上就是你向特朗普和马斯克们缴纳的双重税。恭喜你，你把自己坑了两回。

Ty Doyle
A tariff is a tax on imported goods and services. As an example, let’s say that Company X makes a $1000 cell phone in China. If the US slaps a 20% tariff on such goods, that’s $200 that Company X will have to pay on every unit; X will presumably attempt to pass this on to consumers by pricing the phone as close to $1200 as a competitive market will allow. Thus, tariffs make imported products more expensive.
It might follow that relative to imports, a domestically-made product might be cheaper; if the same phone could be made in the US for $1100 but not carry a tariff, perhaps Company X will seek to make the phone domestically. However, imports becoming more expensive does not, standing alone, cause domestic products to be cheaper. In other words, the fact that the phone is $200 more expensive if imported doesn’t do anything to change the costs necessary to manufacture it in the US. It might be the case, for example, that due to higher labor/material costs, the phone cannot be made for less than $1500 - tariffs cannot change this reality to the extent it exists.

关税是对进口商品和服务征收的一种税。举个例子，假设X公司在中国生产一部价值 1000 美元的手机。如果美国对这类商品征收 20% 的关税，那么X公司每生产一部手机就要多支付 200 美元；X公司可能会试图通过将手机定价尽可能接近 1200 美元来将这部分成本转嫁给消费者，以适应竞争激烈的市场。因此，关税会使进口商品的价格上涨。由此可能得出结论，相对于进口商品，国内生产的商品可能会更便宜；如果同样的手机在美国生产成本为 1100 美元且无需缴纳关税，那么X公司可能会考虑在国内生产。然而，进口商品价格上涨本身并不会导致国内商品价格下降。换句话说，进口手机贵 200 美元这一事实并不会改变在美国生产这部手机所需的成本。例如，由于劳动力和材料成本较高，在美国生产这部手机的成本可能无法低于 1500 美元——关税无法改变这一现实。
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Sven Dirks
Because there are hardly any US-American made products any more.
More than 80% of what is on the shelves of Walmart comes from Asia. Can you name a US company that makes brooms, household items, plastic buckets, toy dolls, thread, fabrics, everyday clothes, nails, screws, hammers, plates, cutlery, pans, pots, knives or vacuum cleaners and so forth? Can you name one that would be able to ramp up production to sufficient quantities?
How many car parts do you think are actually manufactured in the US? Pro tip: Less than 30%. Even less if you count the parts needed to make the parts.
Anything electronic, even when “manufactured” in the US, is 90% import. The US cannot produce chips, screens, boards, devices etc. There is neither the workforce willing and able to work for a pittance, nor is there any of the required raw materials, expertise, manufacturing capacity or machinery. So production becomes a lot more expensive when imports are hit with tariffs.

因为美国本土制造的产品已经所剩无几。沃尔玛货架上超过 80%的商品都来自亚洲。你能说出一家生产扫帚、家居用品、塑料桶、玩具娃娃、线、布料、日常服装、钉子、螺丝、锤子、盘子、餐具、锅、刀具或吸尘器等产品的美国公司吗？你能说出一家能够大幅提高产量以满足需求的公司吗？你认为有多少汽车零部件是在美国制造的？提示：不到 30%。如果算上制造零部件所需的零部件，这个比例就更低了。任何电子产品，即使是在美国“制造”的，也有 90%是进口的。美国无法生产芯片、屏幕、电路板、设备等。既没有愿意且能够接受微薄工资的劳动力，也没有所需的原材料、专业知识、制造能力和机器设备。所以，当进口商品被征收关税时，生产成本就会大幅提高。

The US does not have anywhere near the sufficient supply of potash, aluminium, steel or crude oil. The stuff is simply not there, so it needs to be imported. Guess what happens when stuff needs to get imported while the stable genius is in the White House? Correct - tariffs.
So even if there are some US-American-made products, they will become a lot more expensive. The stuff they are made out of will have to be imported → tariffs. The owner of the production facility will also raise prices, if the market allows it, so on top of the higher production cost, there will be price gauging, since the competition is hit with tariffs.
There is only one thing more stupid than tariffs - higher tariffs.

美国根本没有足够的钾盐、铝、钢铁或原油供应。这些东西根本就不存在，所以必须进口。猜猜看，当需要进口东西时，而“天才”又在白宫里，会发生什么？没错——关税。所以，即便有一些美国制造的产品，它们也会变得贵得多。因为制造它们所需的原材料必须进口——关税。如果市场允许，生产设施的所有者也会提高价格，因此除了生产成本上升之外，还会出现价格哄抬，因为竞争对手都受到了关税的影响。只有一件事比关税更愚蠢——更高的关税。

Dan Hamlish
Are they?
That’s a serious question I’m asking, are they?
Maybe they’re made aith Australian steel or with Korean chips etc.
Just because something was made by an American made company doesn’t mean it was made in America, at least not fully.
Check the bottom/back of the machine you’re reading this on. What does it say there?
The one I’m typing this on was designed in California but built in China.
This is honestly one of the paradoxes of capitolism. Bosses like to make the best product for the smallest price, and sometimes that mean working with com...sts. Or prisoners. or blackmailing foreigners, or some other answer to the question “OK, Lincoln banned slavery, so what do we do instead?”

是吗？我问的可是个严肃的问题，也许它们是用澳大利亚的钢材或者韩国的芯片等制造的。仅仅因为某样东西是由一家美国公司制造的，并不意味着它就是在美国制造的，至少不是完全在美国制造的。看看你正在阅读的这台机器的底部或背面。上面写着什么？我正在用的这台就是在美国加利福尼亚设计的，但在中国制造的。这确实是资本主义的一个悖论。老板们喜欢以最低的价格制造出最好的产品，有时这就意味着要与GCZY者合作。或者利用囚犯。或者敲诈外国人，或者以其他方式来回答“好吧，林肯废除了奴隶制，那我们接下来怎么办？”这个问题。

Steve Taylor
Because there’s often no American-made alternatives to buy.
As far as I know, coffee beans don’t grow anywhere in the U.S., at least not anywhere close to the number of beans needed to satisfy demand. It’s just not the right climate and never will be. Yet the American consumer is about to start paying a 30-40% tax on all countries that grow coffee beans. The consumer pays this. Your $10 bag of beans — invariably an import — is about to go up to $13, despite there being no alternative produced in the U.S.
Ditto tea. Unless you want sassafras tea or nettle tea foraged in the woods, not much alternative…
Ditto a lot of shrimp. The U.S. can’t possibly produce enough domestic shrimp to satisfy demand. But hey, tariff it, anyway.
Ditto a lot of seafood in general. We’d be overfished. The industry would collapse. Salmon populations in the PNW are already destroyed by dams. We get Chilean and Norwegian salmon partly because we don’t want to destroy every salmon off the coast of Alaska.

因为通常没有美国制造的替代品可买。据我所知，咖啡豆在美国任何地方都不生长，至少没有达到满足需求的数量。这里气候条件不合适，以后也不会合适。然而，美国消费者即将对所有种植咖啡豆的国家征收 30% 至 40% 的关税。这笔费用由消费者承担。您那 10 美元一袋的咖啡豆——肯定是进口的——即将涨到 13 美元，尽管美国根本没有替代品生产。茶也一样。除非您想喝在树林里采摘的柳兰茶或荨麻茶，否则几乎没有替代品……很多虾也一样。美国根本不可能生产出足够的国内虾来满足需求。但不管怎样，还是要加征关税。很多海鲜也一样。我们会过度捕捞。这个行业会崩溃。太平洋西北部的三文鱼种群已经因水坝而遭到破坏。我们之所以进口智利和挪威的三文鱼，部分原因是我们不想把阿拉斯加沿海的所有三文鱼都捕捞殆尽。

Ditto bananas. A few grow in south Florida and Hawaii, but no way this will ever fill the U.S. demand for bananas. The president just raised the price of bananas, anyway, despite no realistic alternative to importing them from Guatemala and Belize.
The U.S. has a huge trade surplus with Ireland. The only Irish products I see are Guinness, Jameson and Kerrygold butter, and a little specialty Irish oatmeal. Yet Ireland got slapped with tariffs, anyway. There’s plenty of American beer, whiskey and butter to buy instead, and I think it’s crazy that butter and oats get shipped across the Atlantic anyway… but Ireland imports more American goods than we do from them, yet Trump didn’t spare them, either. Because he doesn’t have any idea what he’s doing. It’s just grandstanding.

香蕉也是如此。佛罗里达州南部和夏威夷有少量香蕉生长，但根本无法满足美国对香蕉的需求。总统还是提高了香蕉的价格，尽管从危地马拉和伯利兹进口香蕉是唯一现实的选择。
美国对爱尔兰存在巨额贸易顺差。我所见到的爱尔兰产品只有健力士黑啤、尊美醇威士忌和凯瑞黄金黄油，还有一点爱尔兰特色燕麦片。然而，爱尔兰还是被加征了关税。美国的啤酒、威士忌和黄油多的是，可以买这些替代品，我觉得把黄油和燕麦运过大西洋实在荒唐……但爱尔兰从美国进口的商品比美国从爱尔兰进口的多，特朗普却也没放过他们。因为他根本不知道自己在做什么。这纯粹是作秀。

Clothing? There’s often no American-made clothing to buy. The mills are mostly gone because they were originally owned by American companies that didn’t want to pay their American employees enough. For Trump’s plan to work, those companies will have to spend millions if not billions of dollars rebuilding their factories in the U.S. This will take years, by which time Americans will have soured on Trumpflation and vote the GOP completely out of power, so the industries aren’t going to rebuild here. They’ll just wait. Those companies also suspect the tariffs will just be ditched when things start to look horrible for Trump (which is already.) They’re not going to make enormous investments in the United States knowing that the original catalyst, tariffs, could be called off at any minute. His own Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, doesn’t know whether the goal of the tariffs is to renegotiate free trade deals, deliberately weaken the dollar, get rid of the income tax, or attract industries back to the United States. When the Treasury Secretary doesn’t know this, no one does. So most companies aren’t going to risk it. They’ll just weather the storm, and consumers pay the tariff in the meantime.

服装？通常根本买不到美国制造的服装。因为那些工厂大多已经倒闭了，它们原本属于一些美国公司，这些公司不愿给美国员工支付足够的薪酬。特朗普的计划要想奏效，那些公司得投入数百万甚至数十亿美元在美国重建工厂。这需要数年时间，而到那时，美国人对特朗普引发的通货膨胀已经感到厌倦，会把共和党彻底赶下台，所以这些行业不会在美国重建工厂。它们只会等待。这些公司还怀疑，一旦特朗普的处境变得糟糕（这已经发生了），关税就会被取消。它们不会在美国进行巨额投资，因为当初促使它们这么做的关税随时可能被取消。就连特朗普自己的财政部长斯科特·姆努钦都不知道，征收关税的目的是重新谈判自由贸易协定、故意让美元贬值、废除所得税，还是吸引产业回流美国。连财政部长都不知道，其他人就更不清楚了。所以大多数公司都不会冒险。他们只会安然度过这场风暴，而在此期间消费者则要承担关税。

Fuck, a shirt made in Vietnam for 10 cents already costs $50 at an American mall, while paying low wages to the Vietnamese. That shirt isn’t going to be cheaper when a company has to spend 100 million dollars to relocate its factories, then pay American workers at least 15 bucks an hour.
Companies that do relocate to the U.S. will still face the fact that they’ll have to import a lot of the components of their products. The whole supply chain would have to be relocated to the United States if they want to completely avoid Trump’s tariffs. Even if this were done, it would take years to accomplish, cost a fortune in itself, and consumers will still pay for it.
The tariffs are set to be the largest tax increase on American consumers in our entire history.
They won’t last. The GOP will turn against them soon, whenever the GOP wakes up to American consumer rage. The Boomers, who helped Trump win, just lost 10% of their retirement funds with the stock market tumbling. The market will tumble more next week. Boomers don’t have 10 years for the market to recover.

该死，一件在越南生产成本仅 10 美分的衬衫，在美国商场里却要卖 50 美元，而越南工人却只能拿到微薄的工资。如果一家公司要花费 1 亿美元将工厂迁回美国，还要给美国工人每小时至少 15 美元的工资，那这件衬衫的价格肯定不会降低。即使有公司迁回美国，它们仍会面临这样一个事实，即它们的产品仍需大量进口零部件。如果要完全避开特朗普的关税，整个供应链都得迁回美国。即便如此，这也需要数年时间才能完成，而且本身就要花费巨资，消费者最终还是要为此买单。这些关税将成为美国历史上对消费者征收的最大税负。它们不会持久，共和党很快就会反对这些关税，