美国港口是否空荡荡的？关税对全球航运有什么影响？
Are US Ports Empty and What Impact Does the Tariff Have on Global Shipping?
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网友：作为一个不懂航海的英国人，我一直认为洛杉矶是一个充满魅力的好莱坞地方。但最近看了这个频道后，我意识到它是一个巨大的物流中心，成千上万的工作依赖于它。感谢提供如此深刻的见解。来自英国。
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As an English landlubber, I have always viewed L A as a glamorous Hollywood place. But having watched this channel recently, I have realised it is a huge logistics hub, with thousands of jobs depending on it. Thanks for the great insight. From the United Kingdom.
作为一个不懂航海的英国人，我一直认为洛杉矶是一个充满魅力的好莱坞地方。但最近看了这个频道后，我意识到它是一个巨大的物流中心，成千上万的工作依赖于它。感谢提供如此深刻的见解。来自英国。
Fascinating. My father worked for Hapag-Lloyd for over 30 years in Tokyo running the accounting department. I feel very nostalgic listening to you. Outstanding. Thank you.
太有意思了。我的父亲在东京的Hapag-Lloyd 公司工作了30多年，负责会计部门。听你讲这些让我感到非常怀旧。非常棒，谢谢你。
I took an interest in shipping at the beginning of the shipping crisis. I had ordered a $2m machine from Germany and it shipped to California right during all the chaos. I was tracking the ship online. It was really interesting.
在航运危机开始时，我对航运产生了兴趣。我曾从德国订购了一台价值200万美元的机器，它正好在所有混乱期间被运往加利福尼亚。我一直在网上追踪这艘船，真的很有意思。
As a trucker, the news misleads, this channel educates.
作为一名卡车司机，新闻往往误导人，而这个频道则在教育人。
I have a Wholesale business in Thailand. We note that American customers have basically abandoned goods they have paid deposits on prior to Trumps Tarrifs. 34% on Thailand. We, as a Wholesaler of wooden products do not see an increase in demand. Actually the complete opposite.
我在泰国做批发生意。我们注意到，美国客户基本上放弃了之前为商品支付的订金，因为特朗普的关税。泰国商品加征了34%的关税。作为一家木制品的批发商，我们并没有看到需求增加，实际上完全相反。
Who would have thought that shipping to the USA would decrease after the country declared sanctions on itself?
谁能想到，美国宣布制裁自己后，向美国的航运会减少呢？
Im a truck driver going into the Long Beach and Los Angeles Ports, and work is going to slow down substantially in May. Most of the Chinese import customers aren't ordering anything from China.
我是一个卡车司机，进出长滩和洛杉矶港，预计5月工作会大幅减缓。大多数中国进口客户不再从中国订购任何东西。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
I’m retired from the MFOW and worked out of L A for 14 years. I worked with APL and Matson. I remember the day the Long Beach Navy Shipyard closed and construction of what’s now Terminal 300 and nearby, Terminal 400. The average public across the country has no idea of what all leaves the U S outbound and inbound from the Pacific Rim.
我从MFOW退休，在洛杉矶工作了14年。我曾与APL和Matson合作。我记得长滩海军船坞关闭的那天，以及现在的300号码头和附近的400号码头的建设。美国普通民众根本不知道从太平洋地区进出口的货物有多少。
Excellent analysis. I would add that for some products, typically parts for the semiconductor industry, companies do not stock due to the high cost, so they order on demand. For these products the effects of the Tariff are immediate.
出色的分析。我想补充一点，对于一些产品，通常是半导体行业的零部件，由于成本高，公司通常不进行库存，所以会按需订购。对于这些产品，关税的影响是立即显现的。
Sam , I have been watching the rail fan live cams for the past few weeks and it is very interesting to watch the drop off of inter model trains heading east in Western Pennsylvania, on NS and CSX, coming from east coast ports. Containers with Hagag, Maersk, and Costco paint colors have almost disappeared. In addition, during the time only one coal drag heading to Baltimore. While at least there is one good thing coming out of this slow down and that is the AMTRACK trains are running on time??
Sam，我这几周一直在观看铁道迷直播摄像头，看到西宾夕法尼亚州NS和CSX上的洲际货运列车逐渐减少，这些列车来自东海岸港口。带有Hapag、Maersk和Costco颜色的集装箱几乎消失了。此外，在这段时间里，只有一列煤炭列车前往巴尔的摩。虽然这次经济放缓带来了一些好处，那就是AMTRACK的列车准时运行了。
I love this shipping news, particularly the pointers to other info sites that explain the economic impacts of all the trade war craziness.
我喜欢这个航运新闻，特别是那些指向其他信息网站的内容，这些网站解释了贸易战疯狂的经济影响。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
A friend told me of his friend who imports soft toys to America from China, he had paid $100k for the toys and was then made to pay an additional $100k, which he didn’t have. Now he is bankrupt and has no idea where the product he paid for is. There must be many stories like this
一个朋友告诉我，他的朋友从中国进口软玩具到美国，他为这些玩具支付了10万美元，结果被要求额外支付10万美元，他根本没有这笔钱。现在他破产了，甚至不知道他支付了款项的产品在哪里。一定有很多类似的故事。
Thanks for this report! In my view, this crisis should not be attributed to a "trade war" but rather to a trade aggression by the USA. China has done nothing to deserve punitive tariffs nor unreasonable port fees and exclusions.
The U.S., like China has done, should spend our tax money on supporting ship building, infrastructure, manufacturing, education, medicare-for-all, good wages, small business and other necessities of a civilized life, instead of wasting our money on war and corruption of all kinds. We shouldn't be punishing another country for being successful!
感谢这份报告！在我看来，这场危机不应归因于“贸易战”，而应归咎于美国的贸易侵略。中国并没有做出任何行为值得被征收惩罚性关税、额外港口费用和排除。
像中国一样，美国应该把我们的税款用于支持造船、基础设施建设、制造业、教育、全民医保、提高工资、小企业和其他文明生活必需品，而不是浪费在战争和各种腐败上。我们不应该惩罚另一个成功的国家！
Man. Some of those numbers are amazing. It all feels so delicate.
天哪。一些数字真是令人惊叹。整个系统感觉如此脆弱。
Walmart are signalling two weeks before shorages at US stores become visible to customers
沃尔玛正在提前两周预测美国商店可能出现的短缺，顾客将会察觉到
Thank you. My Chinese part providers quit shipping to the US. I am unable to produce new products, while I search for other vendors. I will have to raise prices a lot.
谢谢。我的中国零件供应商已经停止向美国发货了。在我寻找其他供应商的过程中，我无法生产新产品。我不得不大幅提高价格。
We’ve got an overload of containers at my work, I’ve never seen so many our warehouse is busting at the seams. We can’t unload the containers. They’re just sitting in our yard. We’re starting to put them in the employee parking area. It’s crazy right now for warehousing.
我们公司现在堆积了太多的集装箱，仓库简直满得不能再满了。我们根本卸不下集装箱，它们就停在我们院子里。我们甚至开始把它们放到员工停车区。现在的仓储情况简直疯狂。
Excellent report! I didn't hear mention of the Chinese shipping that enters the US via the port of Lazaro Cardenas in Michoacan, Mexico and carried by Kansas City rail line crossing at Texas. This line was created thanks to NAFTA as a way around the longshoremen at Long Beach. How are these containers accounted for in your report, or is the quantity not worth mentioning? By the way, the NAFTA rail line runs right behind my house in Morelia and volume of traffic has not diminished as far as I can tell (roughly three trainloads of containers per day).
很棒的报告！我没有听到提到通过墨西哥米却肯州的拉萨罗·卡德纳斯港进入美国的中国货运，这些货物由堪萨斯城铁路公司运输，经过德州。这条铁路线路是根据北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA）建立的，目的是绕过长滩港的码头工人。你在报告中是如何计算这些集装箱的，或者它们的数量不值得提及吗？顺便说一下，NAFTA铁路线路就在我家旁边（莫雷利亚），据我所知，交通量没有减少（大约每天三列装有集装箱的火车）。
Thank you for sharing your, time, work, knowledge and experience Sal, it is always informative to get your thoughts on what is happening with shipping and how that affects the greater economy, cheers
谢谢你，Sal，感谢你分享你的时间、工作、知识和经验，每次听你谈论航运以及它如何影响更广泛的经济，总是让人受益匪浅，干杯！
The three largest suppliers to the US are all halting shipments. Overland from Canada and Mexico is also down considerably, and will continue to drop.
There will be no apple pie by the 4th of July.
美国的三大供应商都停止了发货。从加拿大和墨西哥的陆路运输也大幅减少，并且将继续下降。到7月4日，我们可能就没有苹果派了。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
The big retailers are saying empty shelves will start being seen in 2 weeks from now. Those are the folks that know.
大零售商说，从现在起两周内，空货架将开始显现。那些人最了解情况。
It would appear America has a president who is pushing buttons and pulling levers without any idea of what the outcome will be.
看起来美国现在的总统是在按下按钮、拉动杠杆，但完全不知道结果会怎样。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
This is very good reporting. Why isn't a major network paying you and airing this for the public. Maybe even a condensed Version? I don't get how American Media works at all!
这是非常好的报道。为什么没有主流媒体支付你并将这内容播出给公众呢？也许甚至可以做一个精简版？我完全搞不懂美国媒体是怎么运作的！
Amazon? Really! No way. !
亚马逊？真的吗！不可能。
While some of the changes in shipping are short term, there is clearly going to be some long term changes as manufacturers in other countries realise that US import policies are, at best, unpredictable, so actively seek alternate markets for their products. It is worth noting that this search for other markets is today far easier as ALL countries in the world are facing the same challenge (and realisation of US inconstancy) at the same time. There will not be massive overnight changes, more the slow decrease of imports.
虽然一些航运方面的变化是短期的，但显然会有一些长期变化，因为其他国家的制造商意识到美国的进口政策，充其量是不可预测的，因此积极寻找其他市场来销售他们的产品。值得注意的是，今天所有国家都面临相同的挑战（以及对美国不确定性的认识），因此寻找其他市场变得更加容易。这不会是一个一夜之间发生的巨大变化，而是进口量逐渐减少的过程。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Running a business that requires planning imported goods from a number of countries months in advance is a lot of fun right now. It's a magical mystery tour of not knowing if the quote you've given your customer is going to lose you money or not when they make the order and you need to downchain order the components at unknown prices.
现在经营一家需要提前几个月计划从多个国家进口商品的生意，真是太有趣了。这就像一个神秘的旅行，不知道当客户下单时你给出的报价是否会让你亏钱，而你还得根据不确定的价格去下订单。
Some US trade is through the Canadian port of Vancouver. It's a shorter shipping distance from Northern China/Japan, and the port has better/closer connections to the US Midwest.
Wyoming is exporting coal from this port also, as the US ports aren't expanding to accommodate more business.
Supermax container ships can't use the older, smaller container port cranes as well.
一些美国的贸易是通过加拿大的温哥华港口进行的。从中国北方/日本到这里的航运距离较短，而且该港口与美国中西部有更好的、更近的连接。
怀俄明州也通过这个港口出口煤炭，因为美国的港口没有扩展到可以容纳更多业务的规模。
超大型集装箱船无法使用旧的较小的集装箱港口起重机。
Aliexpress raised prices over night. Everything is 1.5x-3x more expensive from China now
速卖通的价格一夜之间涨了。从中国的商品现在贵了1.5倍到3倍。
G'day from Australia, great channel mate. I noticed in some of those charts a stats that US exports were also down. Could you please provide some commentary about that if it's relevant? Also, I believe after the disruption from Covid there was also problems with locations of containers, is that correct & if so will see a repeat? Cheers
来自澳大利亚的问候，太棒了，朋友！我注意到一些图表中显示美国出口也在下降。能否提供一些相关的评论？此外，我认为在疫情后的确出现了集装箱位置的问题，是吗？如果是的话，未来会不会再次发生？谢谢！
It's so great to get just obxtive facts, no spin. It's hard to get accurate info right now when people are using hyperbole & making wild predictions looking to capitalize on everyone needing daily upxes because things can dramatically change from day to day.
很高兴能够看到如此客观的事实，没有任何偏见。现在很难获得准确的信息，因为很多人都在使用夸张的言辞和做出疯狂的预测，借此满足大家每天都需要更新信息的需求，因为情况每天都在剧烈变化。
The full tariffs haven't hit yet. I believe the end of the 90 days freeze on full tariffs is the beginning of July (?) We will see a fuller effect as we get closer to that date and there aren't trade agreements and more companies stop orders. I don't see how this abrupt trade war helps increase manufacturing in the U.S. It takes time to plan, build and get factories running.
完整的关税还没有完全生效。我相信完整关税的90天冻结期会在七月初结束？我们会在接近那个日期时看到更大的影响，届时没有贸易协议，更多公司会停止订单。我看不出这种突然的贸易战如何能帮助增加美国的制造业。毕竟，计划、建设和启动工厂需要时间。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
One of the screens on the L.A./Long Beach port showed, that didn't get mentioned in your analyses, was a 15% drop in loaded containers for export. That is the reason that trade wars are a no win game, they are impose actions and retaliate actions that snuff out all trade.
在洛杉矶/长滩港的其中一个屏幕上显示了一个没有在你们的分析中提到的数据，那就是出口的装载集装箱下降了15%。这就是为什么贸易战是没有赢家的，它们是通过实施行动和报复行动来抑制所有的贸易。
Remember; the 'price' of goods leaving China is exactly the same as it always was. Only when they land in the US, does the 'cost' double.
记住，离开中国的商品“价格”一直都是一样的。只有当它们到达美国时，商品的“成本”才会翻倍。
So, my company bet on the tariffs and moved 6 months or so of inventory from Mexico warehouses to Texas to avoid the tax.
I’m sure most companies have followed the same game plan
所以，我的公司押注关税问题，并将大约六个月的库存从墨西哥仓库转移到了德州，以避开关税。我敢肯定，大多数公司也采取了同样的应对策略。
The Chinese are now saying that they have not even been talking to Trump about making a new tariff agreement, yet this morning Trump was lying and saying that he is actively talking with the Chinese about tariffs.
中国人现在说，他们甚至没有和特朗普谈论达成新的关税协议，而今天早上特朗普却在撒谎，声称他正在和中国积极讨论关税问题。
So much damage for almost no gains in this trade war. Impact will be huge. And the 10 % base tariff on EU and all the others are also already apply.
这场贸易战几乎没有什么收获，却造成了如此大的损害。影响将是巨大的。而对欧盟和其他国家的10%的基础关税也已经生效。
Tariffs always ripple through global trade—curious to see the long-term effects on shipping.
关税总是会对全球贸易产生连锁反应——很想看看它对航运的长期影响。
I was a retail business owner and ran three eBay stores in the early 2000s. Times like these are great for used products, so don't worry; if you really need something, you will find it. Americans have homes full of stuff and storage units overflowing, and when needed, they will sell the items they have been wasting money on for years, renting space for things they never use. Additionally, repairing what you have will be cost-effective, so the better you are at DIY, the better off you will be. I am not worried; we can go without the toys for a while.
我曾是零售商，并在2000年代初经营了三家eBay店铺。像现在这样的时期对二手商品非常有利，所以不用担心；如果你真的需要某样东西，你总会找到的。美国人家里堆满了东西，还有满是存储单元，等到需要时，他们会卖掉那些他们多年来浪费钱租着存放的东西，修理现有的东西也会更划算。所以，你越擅长自己动手做，越会受益。我不担心；我们可以暂时没有那些玩具。
Americans elected trump because they wanted big change... they are receiving that big change . I hope they are enjoying it and reaping its payoff for decades to come.. Love from a Canadian
美国人选特朗普是因为他们想要大的改变……他们正在经历这个大变化。我希望他们能享受这一切，并在未来几十年里看到其回报……来自加拿大的祝福。
Retailers need a shelf tag that indicates how much the tariff added to the cost of that product in big numbers. That will let the consumer know what the Tariff's are costing us. Then you will see a change.
零售商需要一个货架标签，上面标明该商品因关税而增加的成本，并且标得非常显眼。这样消费者就能知道关税让我们多花了多少钱。那时候你就会看到变化。
I have never been interested with stuff to do with shipping or ports or anything covered in most of these episodes. But, for some reason I can't not watch them...very interesting to see how much this stuff touches everyone in the world
我以前对航运或港口之类的事情没什么兴趣，也不关心这些大多数节目讨论的内容。但不知为什么，我就是忍不住看，真的很有趣，看到这些事情如何影响到世界上每一个人。
We are exporters of agricultural goods from South America. By the end of 2024 demand plunged significantly and has kept low compared to other years. Retail prices have gone down on a % of goods due to lack of demand.
我们是来自南美的农业商品出口商。到2024年底，需求大幅下降，并且与往年相比一直保持低迷。由于需求不足，部分商品的零售价格下降了。
The current disruptions in shipping, driven by tariffs and changing trade routes, highlight the vulnerability of global supply chains. While the immediate effects might not be obvious, it’s important to keep an eye on how this unfolds in the coming months, as it could have far-reaching consequences for both businesses and consumers.
当前由于关税和贸易路线变化引发的航运中断，突显了全球供应链的脆弱性。虽然短期内可能看不出明显影响，但关注这一变化如何在接下来的几个月中展开很重要，因为它可能对企业和消费者产生深远影响。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Sal, I enjoy your videos daily. Keep up the good work.
Question: If a company "blanks" a sailing, what does the ship do? Just sail to the next port? Or hang at anchor?
Sal，我每天都喜欢看你的视频。继续保持出色的工作。
问题：如果一家公司“取消”了一次航行，船只会做什么？是直接开往下一个港口，还是停在锚地等待？
5 more months before US retailers start preparing for the post Thanksgiving, Christmas shopping season. When do orders need to be placed, then manufactured and shipped?
离美国零售商开始为感恩节后、圣诞购物季做准备还有5个月。订单需要在什么时候下单，然后开始生产和运输？
I order the same goods every quarter from China. I quoted the shipping again this week and using DDP (duties and fees included), the price has dropped from last quote a few months ago. Very unexpected.
我每个季度从中国订购相同的商品。这周我再次询价，使用DDP（含税和费用），价格比几个月前的报价下降了。非常出乎意料。
Prepare for some empty shelves in stores, even if DJT backs down (which he will) or changes his mind (check back in 12 hrs, he will). Many shipping and logistics companies have already started to move containers and ships to alternate routes, so even if things get sorted out, there will be big logistics and bottleneck problems.
即使特朗普妥协（他会的）或改变主意（过12小时再看看，他会的），也要准备好商店的货架空空如也。许多航运和物流公司已经开始将集装箱和船只转移到替代航线，所以即使问题解决了，仍然会出现重大物流瓶颈问题。
That's the shipping part, but there's more. Of the 90% of ships not cancelled the cargo they're carrying may just pile up in US customs as many customers can't or won't pay the tariff because it makes no business sense. Some importers are playing a game of chicken hoping the tariffs are cancelled while cargo is en route or held at customs before customs does something with the cargo.
这只是运输部分，还有更多问题。90%没有被取消的船只，它们所运载的货物可能会堆积在美国海关，因为许多客户无法或不愿支付关税，因为这没有商业意义。一些进口商正在玩一种冒险游戏，希望在货物运输途中或在海关滞留时关税会被取消，或者海关对货物采取行动。
显然，沃尔玛、塔吉特、家得宝的首席执行官们在周三告诉特朗普，他们预计从两周后开始，商店货架上将出现空缺。因此，美国消费者可能会在5月的第二周开始注意到。
Even if Trump said today "just kidding" a lot of this is already baked in. But each day this keeps up will create much more serious problems. China shows no sign of even discussing trade with Trump for several reasons including they don't think he keeps his word. There's no point making a deal with someone who doesn't keep his word.
无法预测美国人会如何反应。
即使特朗普今天说“开玩笑的”，很多问题已经烙印在现实中了。但每一天的延续都会带来更严重的问题。中国显然没有表现出与特朗普讨论贸易的意图，原因有很多，其中之一是他们认为特朗普不守信用。与一个不守信用的人达成协议是没有意义的。
What about those orders delivered to US harbors which will not be picked up with 145% tarifs.
If you paid already 100.000$ and would have to pay another 145000 on top which you then can not sell then I bet a lot of containers might stuck there in the port
如果那些已经送到美国港口的订单没有被提取并被征收145%的关税怎么办？
如果你已经支付了10万美元，还需要再支付14.5万美元，而这些货物又无法出售，我敢打赌很多集装箱可能会滞留在港口。
12:33 - Chinese new year was this time earlier than usually end of january and not where you pointed end of december. Usually early February.
AND: it will be happening every single day that more and more products will be vanishing from your shelves, you will observe it soon what will be missing the most. Not the toiletpaper but maybe the toothbrush, a soap or what ever you are used too coming out of china.
And then the supply might come back again but for 3 times the prices caus 145% for tarifs and then 30% more for airtraffic freigh rates due to the delayed orders and long lead time for container.
12:33 - 今年的春节比平时提前了，不是你说的12月底，而是通常在2月初。
另外：你会每天看到越来越多的商品从货架上消失，很快你就会发现哪些东西最缺。可能不是卫生纸，而是牙刷、肥皂，或者你习惯从中国进口的其他商品。
然后，供应可能会恢复，但价格会翻三倍，因为145%的关税，再加上由于订单延误和集装箱运输时间长，空运费用还会增加30%。
Walmart and Target are complaining of empty shelves in the coming weeks.
沃尔玛和塔吉特公司在抱怨接下来的几周货架空空如也。
Sal, how are tariffs actually paid and collected? Does the ship's captain pull out a checkbook or something?
Sal，关税到底是怎么支付和收取的？是船长拿出支票本之类的吗？
Maybe seeing some empty shelves would be good for everyone. It might drive home just how beholden to China we are for manufacturing. It’s not a good thing.
也许看到一些空货架对大家来说是件好事。这样可能会让人意识到我们在制造业上是多么依赖中国。这可不是件好事。
Hopefully we in Australia get to buy some cheap goods that are normally sold to the US
希望我们在澳大利亚能够买到一些通常卖给美国的便宜商品。
A question: Why does ships that are going from and to the same place take so different routes?
It is only different weather- and current analysis? Seems odd that so many that looks at mostly the same models make so different choices.
(This has actually been a little bit mysterious to me when sailing)
有个问题：为什么从同一地点出发和到达的船只会走完全不同的路线？
这只是不同的天气和海流分析吗？看起来奇怪的是，虽然很多人使用大致相同的模型，但却做出了完全不同的选择。
（其实这一直让我在航行时感到有点神秘）
Sal, Ryan’s stats of 25% are for China to US.
Your 10% average reduction for Transpacific is from Asia (including SE Asia, Japan, Korea, etc) to US (possibly also to Canada & Mexico???)
Sal，Ryan提到的25%的数据是针对从中国到美国的。
你提到的10%的平均减少是指从亚洲（包括东南亚、日本、韩国等）到美国（可能也包括加拿大和墨西哥???）的跨太平洋航线。
But without these ships Americans won't have useless cheap cr@p to waste money on. We might actually save it, invest it. We might actually return to making stuff ourselves, which could create well paying manufacturing jobs that.... I forgot where I was going with this. HMMm, what was my point?
但没有这些船，美国人就无法购买这些没用的便宜货来浪费钱。我们可能反而会存钱，投资它。我们可能真的会回到自己生产东西，这可以创造出薪资优渥的制造业工作……我忘了我在说什么了。嗯，我的观点是什么来着？
5-25% is a normal margin on goods. Nobody can afford 145%. That leaves the consumer to pick up the tab for the sales tax, and if the consumer won't pay the tax, then the goods won't get imported at all. Most 'made in america' companies import their supplies from china, so their sales tax for US consumers is going to be the same as an import. Likewise, China will just stop buying ag commodities from the US, strengthening Brazil and the EU's ag sectors.
The end result is more american companies going out of business, while foreign based ones just ignore the US market and do just fine.
5-25% 是商品的正常利润率。没有人能承受 145%。这会让消费者承担销售税，如果消费者不愿意支付税费，那么商品根本不会被进口。大多数“美国制造”的公司从中国进口原料，因此它们对美国消费者的销售税就和进口商品一样。类似地，中国将停止购买美国的农业商品，这将加强巴西和欧盟的农业部门。
最终的结果是更多的美国公司倒闭，而外国公司则会忽视美国市场，继续做得很好。