特朗普征收的关税对世界经济意味着什么？？
What Trump's Tariffs Mean for the World Economy
译文简介
网友：一旦市场真正意识到特朗普对关税是认真的，冲击将会非常猛烈。如果美国切断与全球贸易的联系，这种孤立主义将引发震荡波。
正文翻译
What Trump's Tariffs Mean for the World Economy
特朗普的关税对世界经济意味着什么
特朗普的关税对世界经济意味着什么
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Once markets really grasp that Trump is serious about tariffs, it’s going to hit hard. If the US cuts itself off from global trade, that isolationism is going to send shockwaves
一旦市场真正意识到特朗普对关税是认真的，冲击将会非常猛烈。如果美国切断与全球贸易的联系，这种孤立主义将引发震荡波。
Its so sad how many of HIS voters believed they were getting cheaper groceries when they are going to rise significantly.
可悲的是，他的那么多选民竟然相信物价会变得更便宜，而实际上商品的价格将大幅上涨。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
I retired with 26 years of tariff administration experience in the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (formerly U.S. Customs Service). My job was to review/process the paperwork and collect the duties (tariffs) due on imported goods. When imported goods enter the Customs territory of the United States, duties are paid by the Importer of Record (IOR), which may be a corporation or an individual. NOTHING is paid by any foreign entity (manufacurer, shipper, or nation).
我在美国海关与边境保护局（前身为美国海关总署）拥有26年关税管理经验后退休。我的工作是审核/处理文件并对进口商品征收应缴关税（关税）。当进口商品进入美国关境时，关税由登记的进口商（IOR）支付，它可能是公司或个人。任何外国实体（制造商、运输商或国家）都不需要支付分文。
This is America's Brexit from the global economy. Like the UK, won't be long before people regret what they voted for.
这是美国在全球经济中的"脱欧"时刻。和英国一样，用不了多久人们就会后悔自己的选择。
I live in a country where every import is tariffed and local economy is overprotected from competition, needless to tell you that there is a shortage of everything, quality is low, and prices are ridiculously high, everything from electonics 1nd car to staple foods like red meat.
The average person is the one who's gonna shoulder those tariffs.
我生活在一个对所有进口商品都征收关税、本地经济被过度保护免受竞争的国家。不用说，这里什么都短缺，质量低下，价格高得离谱，从电子产品和汽车到红肉等主食都是如此。最终承担这些关税的将是普通人。
He’s using a defensive tactic as an offensive threat. Even all the way back in the 1600s, tariffs were used to keep countries from entering the global economy, not earn more money for yourself
他正在把防御性策略当作进攻性威胁来使用。早在17世纪，关税就是用来阻止国家进入全球经济的手段，而不是为自己赚更多钱。
This guy is going to be the final nail in the coffin for us, fellow Americans. Whenever he forces a country to do what he says, and they refuse, he immediately bombards them with tarrifs as punishment. But in reality, the ones who will be paying for those ridiculous tarrifs are you and me. Every day, he's only making himself a target.
这个家伙将成为压垮我们的最后一根稻草，美国同胞们。每当他强迫一个国家按他说的做而遭到拒绝时，他就会立即用关税作为惩罚进行轰炸。但实际上，为这些荒谬关税买单的将是你我。每一天，他都在让自己成为众矢之的。
The economy is grappling with uncertainties, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
美国经济正面临着不确定性、全球波动和疫情余波的多重压力，这导致经济的不稳定。通胀上升、增长乏力和贸易中断需要各部门立即关注，以恢复稳定并刺激增长。
Countries just shrug their shoulders at the word tariff.
They don't care because the consumer ultimately pays the tax, not the exporting company.
The cost of tariffs is passed all along the supply chain to the end user.
各国对"关税"这个词只是耸耸肩。他们不在乎，因为最终支付税款的是消费者，而不是出口公司。关税成本会沿着供应链一直传递到终端用户。
Americans have companies outside the US, feeding labor for those specific countries, instead of our own. Profit drives these decisions and as long as the US companies depend on other nations for supply and labor, tariffs will never work
美国人在海外设立公司，为那些特定国家提供工作岗位，而不是为我们自己。利润驱动着这些决定，只要美国公司依赖其他国家提供供应和劳动力，关税就永远不会奏效。
What happens if products arrive at the border in parts to be assembled in the US by a small Chinese business with mainly robots for the last 5% of the work? No tariffs and no American jobs? Or.. new jobs for all those extra civil servants (paid by the American tax payers) who will have to check all these creative ways to avoid tariffs. Trump is the best example of someone who avoided paying taxes his whole life. I don't think other countries can't be as creative.
如果产品以零件的形式运抵边境，由一家主要使用机器人完成最后5%工作的小型中国企业在美国组装会怎样？没有关税也没有美国的就业机会？也许...这是在为所有那些必须检查这些规避关税的"创意方式"的额外的公务员（由美国纳税人支付工资）创造新的工作。特朗普是一辈子都在避税的最佳例子，我不认为其他国家不会同样有创意。
I think the entire world should putt tariffs on all American imports, including services, Youtube, Netflix, Google, Amazon. We should do it at 35%, and dump the US Dollar immediately….
我认为全世界都应该对所有的美国进口商品征收关税，包括服务、YouTube、Netflix、谷歌、亚马逊。我们应该征收35%的关税并立即抛售美元...
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
It's a complex world and if the US puts tariffs like these on products, then those countries are going to route around the United States like they routed around russia.
And then 4 years when Trump is gone, those countries supply chains won't need the United States anymore.
It will be a painful transition, but it will be a semi-permanent transition.
这个世界很复杂，如果美国对产品征收这样的关税，那么这些国家就会像绕过俄罗斯那样绕过美国。等到4年后特朗普下台，这些国家的供应链将不再需要美国。虽然这将是一个痛苦的过渡，但会是一个半永久性的过渡。
hopefully not, but this could be the end of USD..eventually countries will find a way (another bill) to go around the USD...remember there are other manufacturing giants such as China, India, etc...this is only disadvantageous to USA
希望不会，但这可能是美元的终结...最终各国会找到方法（另一种货币）绕过美元...记住，还有其他制造业巨头，如中国、印度等...这只会对美国不利。
US consumers will pay for the tariffs, my country(germany), especially the car industry, might lose a big market, but on long term it will be alright.
美国消费者将支付关税，我的国家（德国），特别是汽车行业，可能会失去一个大市场，但从长远来看会没事的。
The tarriff plan will evidently lead to high inflation, the high inflation is a significant reason why most retirees have sleepless nights. The increase in prices of everyday items puts them at risk of running out of money. As prices rise, the amount of money retirees can withdraw from their retirement savings also increases.
关税计划显然会导致高通胀，高通胀是大多数退休人士夜不能寐的重要原因。日常用品价格的上涨将使他们面临资金耗尽的风险。随着物价上涨，退休人员从退休储蓄中提取的金额也会增加。
The increasing prices have impacted my plan to retire at 62, work part-time, and save for the future. I'm concerned about whether those who navigated the 2008 financial crisis had an easier time than I am currently experiencing. The combination of stock market volatility and a decrease in income is causing anxiety about whether I'll have sufficient funds for retirement.
物价上涨影响了我62岁退休、兼职工作并为未来储蓄的计划。我担心那些经历过2008年金融危机的人是否比我现在的处境更轻松。股市波动和收入下降的双重压力让我焦虑，我不知道是否有足够的资金退休。
That's exactly what my advisor, Grace, has been emphasizing. She really drilled home the diversification point. I used to be so heavily invested in tech stocks, thinking they were a sure thing. But Grace helped me branch out into real estate through REITs and even suggested a small allocation to commodities. She explained how different asset classes react to inflation differently, and how that mix can really help protect my portfolio. It felt a little scary at first, diversifying away from what I knew, but now, seeing how my portfolio has held up even with recent market fluctuations, I'm so grateful for her guidance. It really underscores the importance of not having all your eggs in one basket, like you said.
这正是我的顾问Grace一直强调的。她真的让我深刻理解了分散投资的重要性。我以前过度投资科技股，认为它们万无一失。但Grace帮助我通过房地产投资信托基金(REITs)进入房地产领域，她甚至建议少量配置大宗商品。她解释了不同资产类别对通胀的不同反应，以及这种组合如何真正帮助保护我的投资组合。起初，远离我所熟悉的领域进行分散投资让我有点害怕，但现在看到我的投资组合即使在最近的市场波动中也能保持稳定，我非常感谢她的指导。这确实印证了你所说的"不要把所有鸡蛋放在一个篮子里"的重要性。
Absolutely. I’d recommend reaching out to someone like Grace Lorraine Austin. She specializes in portfolio management and can help you build a solid financial strategy. With the economic uncertainties ahead, managing your finances wisely will be key.
绝对。我建议联系像Grace Lorraine Austin这样的人。她专长于投资组合管理，可以帮助你制定稳健的财务策略。面对未来的经济不确定性，明智地理财将是关键。
I know almost nothing about history of economy, but it took me half hour to educate myself what tarifs did in history. Imported products became more expencive and local sellers used it to raise thier prices next to imported. Quite dumb...Who will pay? End customers aka citizens.
我对经济史几乎一无所知，但我花了半小时自学了关税在历史上的作用。进口产品变得更贵，本地卖家借此提高与进口商品相近的价格。这相当愚蠢...谁来买单？最终消费者也就是公民买单。
Tariffs and deportations doesn't go along with each other. Because if Trump wants manufacturing back in the US you need a workforce. In this case cheap workforce to compete with China and others. This will play out catastrophic for the US economy and their citizens.
关税和驱逐出境并不相配。因为如果特朗普想让制造业回流美国，你需要劳动力。在这种情况下，美国需要廉价的劳动力来与中国等国家竞争，这对美国经济和其公民来说将是灾难性的。
Counties may capitulate in the short term, but they will actively seek alternative trading partners in the long term.
America is exercising its second amendment right by shooting itself in the foot.
各国可能会在短期内屈服，但长期来看会积极寻找替代贸易伙伴。美国正在行使第二修正案赋予的权利——搬起石头砸自己的脚。
The United States used to be a manufacturing country. Since the end of the Second World War this changed from a manufacturing center to a consumer center. All governments since the end of that conflict have been increasing the national debt, all of which has dued the US dollar to the point where, today, a US dollar is worth about three cents, yes three cents, compared with a 1971 US dollar. So, today all the consuming US public is consuming with dued dollars, hence, the increase in the sticker price of all goods and services. We simply need more of these dued dollars to buy anything.
The plan by the current US government to install these tariffs is a distraction from the real problem which is the US debt and the dued US dollar. Currently, the US debt to GDP ratio is well over 100% and so the only way to get this ratio down is either to pay down the debt or to increase the productivity of the nation. The former is out of the question; the second option will take maybe twenty to thirty years. The latter is not unrealistic since it really took over forty years to create this problem in the first place.
With regard to the stated deficit in trade with Canada this is a complete falsehood. If one were to include services as well as goods, then the deficit would be dramatically altered. In addition, the US imports over four million barrels of oil each day. This oil is shipped at deep discounts which allows the US refineries to sell the finished product on the open market generating huge profits. The statements by the US President are misleading, incomplete and false. We are living in dangerous times. The last thing a leader ought to be doing is turning on its trusted and reliable ally. He will pay for this and so will the American people. Just wait until they go the grocery store or the gas station.
This whole charade will not end well. Canada should immediately reform the inter-provincial trade barriers and should continue to forge new alliances around the world, including with China, India and the other BRICS nations. The US is in decline. The Americans do not appreciate what we, Canada, represent. Once the trust is broken it will never be restored. Canada should turn away from the whole misconception that the US is our friend and ally.
美国曾经是一个制造业国家。自第二次世界大战结束以来，它从一个制造中心变成了消费中心。自那场冲突结束以来，所有政府都在增加国家债务，所有这些都使美元贬值到今天，与1971年的美元相比，一美元只值约三美分，是的，三美分。所以，今天所有消费的美国公众都在用贬值的美元消费，因此，所有商品和服务的标价都上涨了。我们只是需要更多这些贬值的美元来购买任何东西。
当前美国政府实施这些关税的计划是为了转移人们对真正问题的注意力，即美国债务和美元的贬值。目前，美国的债务与GDP的比率远超过100%，因此降低这一比率的唯一的方法是要么偿还债务，要么提高国家的生产力。前者是不可能的；第二个选项可能需要二十到三十年。后者并非不切实际，因为最初制造这个问题确实花了四十多年时间。
关于与加拿大的所谓贸易逆差完全是谎言。如果把服务和商品都计算在内，那么逆差将会发生巨大的变化。此外，美国每天进口超过四百万桶石油。这些石油以深度折扣运输，使美国炼油厂能够在公开市场上销售成品并获得巨额利润。美国总统的声明具有误导性、不完整且虚假。我们生活在危险的时代。领导人最不应该做的就是背弃值得信赖的可靠的盟友。他将为此付出代价，美国人民也将如此，就等着看他们去杂货店或加油站时的反应吧。
这整个闹剧不会有好结果。加拿大应立即改革省际贸易壁垒，并应继续与世界各地建立新的联盟，包括中国、印度和其他金砖国家。美国正在衰落。美国人不欣赏我们加拿大所代表的意义。一旦信任破裂，就永远不会恢复。加拿大应该摒弃"美国是我们的朋友和盟友"这一整个误解。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Ever since NAFTA went into effect in 1994, companies have moved manufacturing to Mexico with the aim of exporting goods to the US. When you reimpose tariffs on Mexico and Canada, you're going to see less of that. Some companies will find it cheaper to manufacture in the US while others will find it cheaper to simply pay the tariff. Either way it lessens the loophole.
自1994年《北美自由贸易协定》生效以来，公司纷纷将制造业转移到墨西哥，目的是向美国出口商品。当你对墨西哥和加拿大重新征收关税时，这种情况将会减少。一些公司会发现在美国生产更便宜，而另一些公司则会发现直接支付关税更便宜。无论哪种方式，都会减少这个漏洞。
Challenging times ahead. The basics of economics and civics are essential to Democracy. Let's hope more people get curious and become active. The average consumer will pay for this, not the wealthy.
充满挑战的时代即将到来。经济学和公民学的基础知识对民主至关重要。希望更多人产生兴趣并积极参与。普通消费者而不是富人将为此买单。
It's time to put no flies on around the United States. Call shipping house to stop at the 200-mile limit. No shipson in, no ship's out. All crossporting has to stop at the Canadian American border.
是时候在美国周围设置禁飞区了。通知航运公司在200英里界限处停止。没有船只进出，所有跨境运输都必须在美加边境停止。
End of the day it's upto common people. Making things in USA is expensive. Some examples r U want a low cost Chinese car or use motorbike. Big Chinese TV or small less feature tv made in USA. Top end mobile made in China or entry level mobile made in USA.
归根结底这取决于普通人。在美国制造东西很贵。举例来说：你是想要一辆低成本的中国汽车还是摩托车？大屏幕中国电视还是功能较少的小型美国制造电视？中国制造的高端手机还是美国制造的入门级手机？
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
You can't deny that we trade with other countries at a deficit. Why should we stay in the position? So how can we negotiate fair trade agreements without tariffs? Genuinely curious. I want America to be the undisputed economic powerhouse of the world.
你不能否认我们与其他国家存在贸易逆差。我们为什么要保持这种状态？那么没有关税，我们如何谈判公平贸易协定？我真心好奇。我希望美国成为世界上无可争议的经济强国。
First thing Canada should do is stop importing toilet tissue to America, and then Denmark should stop selling Ozempic. I'm not too sure if Trump has been watching Russia or not, but life goes on without America.
加拿大应该做的第一件事是停止从美国进口卫生纸，然后丹麦应该停止销售Ozempic。我不太确定特朗普是否一直在关注俄罗斯，但没有美国，生活照样继续。
I don’t know if ppl pretend to be dumb when it comes down to Trump’s tariffs strategy or they are actually dumb, I mean you can’t see the forest for the trees, it’s not simply about making stuff more expensive but about changing the entire system on how to trade with countries getting richer and richer at the expense of the crazy consumption of USA citizens, so if things are done properly the only winner will be USA and subsequently other economies globally and moreover it plays an important role in geopolitical strength. China got so crazy rich by putting strict rules on foreign investors wanting to do business in their country for instance car manufacturers, they had to become allies with a local car manufacturer in order to produce their cars in china, now china sells more EVs than tesla, because they managed to get ahold of intel, let’s not talk about electronics or even AI.
我不知道人们在特朗普的关税战略上是装傻还是真傻，我的意思是你们一叶障目不见泰山，这不仅是为了让东西变得更贵，而是为了改变整个贸易体系。那些国家以美国公民疯狂消费为代价变得越来越富有，所以如果处理得当，唯一的赢家将是美国，随后是全球其他经济体，而且这在地缘政治实力上也发挥着重要的作用。中国变得如此富有，是因为它对外国投资者制定了严格的规定，比如汽车制造商，他们必须与当地汽车制造商合资才能在中国生产汽车，现在中国销售的电动汽车比特斯拉还多，因为他们设法掌握了核心技术，更不用说电子产品甚至人工智能了。
We fought a revolution over tariffs but we didn't call them tariffs we called them taxes back then as that was the primary means of taxation then. I mean one of the most important events in American history was the Boston Tea Party and they were literally protesting a Tea tariff. It didn't stop being a tax just because we call it something else now.
我们曾经为关税进行过一场革命，但当时我们不称之为关税，而是称之为税收，因为那是当时的主要征税手段。我是说美国历史上最重要的事件之一就是波士顿倾茶事件，他们实际上是在抗议茶叶关税，它并没有因为我们现在叫它别的名字就不再是税收。
I understand how tariffing affects the people within the country imposing tariffs, what I am unclear about then, is why would the other country need to counter-tariff at all? Seems like there is still some net benefit to the tariffs? Legit question.
我理解关税如何影响征收关税的国家的人民，但我不明白的是为什么其他国家需要反制关税？似乎关税仍然有一些净收益？这是一个合理的问题。
No problem. People that have assets will just be richer while everyone is just trying to make ends meet. Look at what happen recently. You own something you automatically made money. Rich people enabling rich people.
没问题。有资产的人只会变得更富有，而其他人则只是在努力维持生计。看看最近发生了什么？你拥有某样东西，你就自动赚钱了。富人在帮助富人。
America needs to include tariffs on companies that outsource jobs to countries like India and the Philippines. Strengthening U.S. borders with a permanent military or National Guard presence is essential for national security.
美国需要对将工作岗位外包给印度和菲律宾等国家的公司征收关税。加强美国边境，永久驻军或国民警卫队对国家安全至关重要。
If trump massively increase tariff then other countries can't massively increase tariff coz then their products comes in a price range of local made products which can create more competition and they risk of selling less imported products.
如果特朗普大幅提高关税，那么其他国家就不能大幅提高关税，因为那样他们的产品就会进入本地制造产品的价格区间，这会造成更多竞争，他们将面临进口产品销量下降的风险。
I understand that tariffs cause prices to go up. What I don't understand is why a country would retaliate by causing the prices to go up on their own people. What Canada should do is an embargo. Choose a product like Jack Daniels for example, from a Trump friendly state, and completely embargo that product. Coordinate with other countries to target specific products and shut them down one by one. That would hurt. Also, tariffs are used to try to cause people to stop buying products outside of their country and make it less expensive (comparably) to buy from within. Look at the labor force available in the US. It's pretty low and soon to get lower. That means companies will have to pay more to draw workers away and other companies will have to pay more to retain workers. This causes inflation within a country, which is how we got where we are now. Break the cycle and use the embargo instead. At least take a vote and let the people decide.
我理解关税会导致价格上涨。我不明白的是为什么一个国家要通过让自己的人民承受价格上涨来进行报复。加拿大应该做的是禁运。以杰克丹尼为例，我们可以挑选一个来自对特朗普友好的州的产品，然后完全禁运该产品。与其他国家协调，针对特定的产品，一个一个地关闭它们。那会很痛。此外，关税是用来试图让人们停止购买国外产品，使购买国内产品相对不那么昂贵。看看美国的劳动力，他们现在已经很少了，而且很快就会更少。这意味着公司将不得不支付更多工资来吸引工人，其他公司将不得不支付更多工资来留住工人。这会导致国内通货膨胀，这就是我们现在的处境。打破这个循环，改用禁运。至少应该进行投票，让人民决定。
Like him or not Trump is based. America has gone far and beyond to provide the infrastructure for global service economies that placed the West amongst developed nations, most prominently post-WW2. But since the '70s/80s, a new economic philosophy democratised value chains through new capital markets that allowed unforeseen economies to take over all aspects of competencies gained through outsourcing. If you're short sighted you'd view it as a tax on "you", but the reality is Trump's saying buckle your boots we're opening up our own shop. Its ironic and scary to see because as Clinton said, "no country can escape the global economy," an economy in which America is the centre. I need a popcorn bucket and bunker to last 4 years.
不管你喜不喜欢，特朗普是有根据的。美国不遗余力地为全球服务经济提供了基础设施，使西方跻身发达国家之列，最突出的是在二战后。但自上世纪70/80年代以来，一种新的经济哲学通过新的资本市场使价值链民主化，让意想不到的经济体接管了通过外包获得的所有能力方面。如果你目光短浅，你会认为这是对"你"的征税，但现实是特朗普说系好靴子，我们要开自己的店了。这既讽刺又可怕，因为正如克林顿所说，"没有一个国家能逃脱全球经济"，而美国是这个经济的中心。我需要一桶爆米花和掩体来度过这4年。
US has endemic trade deficit, an unemployment . Simply, it tells that American consume more than what they consume! Putting tariffs will not solve the problem, since nearshoring and re-industrializing needs workers, which are not there. US do not needs to reduce it's import, it needs to increase the value of what it export! This tells that US manufacturing is not that productive if it cannot compete against most other nations in its own battleground... Furthermore, if US has been capable to sustain protracted trade deficit without impoverishing itseld, it is because the deficit is counterbalanced by the influx of capitals from foreign countries. And this is where US outperform anybody else, and shall focus on.
美国存在长期的贸易逆差和失业问题。简单地说，这表明美国人的消费超过了他们的生产能力！征收关税并不能解决问题，因为近岸外包和再工业化需要工人，而这些工人并不存在。美国不需要减少进口，它需要增加出口的价值！这说明如果美国制造业无法在本土战场上与大多数其他国家竞争，那么它的生产力就不高...此外，如果美国能够在不使自己贫困化的情况下维持长期的贸易逆差，那是因为逆差被来自外国的资本流入所抵消。而这正是美国胜过其他任何国家的地方，美国也应该集中精力于此。