Steven Haddock
Okay, let’s take a single example.

好吧，让我给你举一个例子。


This is nickel, a ferromagnetic metal. It’s used in all sorts of applications from stainless steel to batteries to electroplating

这是镍，一种铁磁性金属。它被广泛用于各种场景，从制造不锈钢到电池再到电镀。

Now, Canada has very large reserves of nickel. It used to produce about 80% of the world’s supply, and it still has about 2.2 million tons of reserves. Indonesia currently has the largest reserves at 55 million tons.

加拿大拥有非常丰富的镍储量。过去它曾为全球市场供应约80%的镍产量，如今仍拥有约220万吨的储量。而印度尼西亚目前拥有最大的镍储量，达5500万吨。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


And here’s how much nickel Canada produced per year.

以下是加拿大每年的镍产量数据。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处



Now, look at that 2016 figure - about 220,000 tonnes (metric, a little more than a ton).
Total U.S. nickel reserves - are 300,000 tons. That’s less than two years of typical Canadian production.
And a lot of Canadian nickel goes to the United States. Because we have it, and the United States doesn’t.

看看2016年的数字——大约22万吨（公吨，比美吨稍多一点）。美国的镍总储量是多少？30万吨。这还不到加拿大两年的产量。而且大量加拿大的镍出口到了美国，因为我们有镍，而美国没有。


And that’s not the only thing. Canada has roughly eight times the amount of uranium the United States does.

这还不是全部。加拿大的铀储量大约是美国的八倍。

And sometimes, even with tariffs, it might be cheaper to source from Canada. For example, auto parts are made in Canada because one of the highest labour costs for American producers is “health insurance”. The people who make auto parts are highly skilled, unxized, and can get what they ask for.

有时，即便存在关税，从加拿大采购的成本仍然更便宜。例如，汽车零部件是在加拿大制造的，因为同样的产品如果在美国生产，美国生产商需要付出的最高的劳动力成本是员工的“健康保险”。制造汽车零部件的美国工人技术精湛、工会化程度高，他们理所当然的会提出并获得更高的薪资。

Jonathan A. Swift
Before the last election, Republicans were whining about “worker shortage”.
Such a strange way to complain about having “too many jobs”!
Elon said he needed more visas to import foreign workers to fill job openings.

在上次选举之前，共和党人一直在抱怨“劳动力短缺”。
这是一种很奇怪的方式来表达“工作岗位太多”的问题！
埃隆·马斯克曾表示他需要更多的签证来引进外国工人填补职位空缺。

But now we are spending hundreds of billions of dollars to create more jobs, when unemployment was already low and struggling to find enough workers to fill the jobs already open.

但现在，我们正在花费数千亿美元来创造更多的工作岗位，而失业率已经很低，企业已经在努力寻找足够的工人来填补现有的空缺岗位。

All we need to do to avoid tariffs is get rid of the idiot who keeps creating them.

我们只需要做一件事就可以避免关税：那就是赶走那个不断制造关税的傻瓜。

Wise Old Fool
HMM. Here’s the simple answer for simpletons who think simply. It’s very short.
It’s because
we don’t have all the raw materials for everything produced or consumed during manufacturing
we don’t have the expertise to produce everything that’s produced
we can’t afford to make everything we consume. The average wage for American workers is just under $30/hr. The average wage for Chinese workers: under $7/hr.
When was the last time an American car exceeded quality standards? Domestically produced vehicles rarely make it onto the list of most reliable cars.
Where does Donald and Ivanka go for their products? China.
Why in the world would anybody want to turn America back into a sweatshop?

嗯，这里有一个简单的答案，给那些思考简单的人。非常简短。
原因在于：
1.我们没有生产或消费所需的所有原材料。
2.我们没有能力生产所有东西。
3.我们负担不起自己生产所有消费的东西。美国工人的平均工资是每小时30美元，而中国工人的平均工资不到每小时7美元。
4.上次美国生产的汽车超过质量标准是什么时候？国产车辆很少登上最可靠汽车的榜单。
5.唐纳德和伊万卡去哪里找他们的产品？中国。
6.为什么总有人想把美国变回“血汗工厂”？

R. Frawley
What do you need in order to produce a product?

为了生产一个产品，你需要什么？

1.) Raw materials. We don’t have all the raw materials for every product, or we might need more factories to make them first. Say making shoes—ok, but first we need a lot more leather tanneries. That will take time to build up.
2.) Factory facilities. Obviously we don’t currently have the capacity to replace all this right away:
So we have to build new factories. Rivian company is building a new factory in Georgia. It will take two years to get it up and running.

1.原材料。我们没有所有产品的原材料，我们需要更多的工厂来制造这些前置原材料。比如说要造好一双鞋的前提是我们需要更多的皮革厂。而打造这些原材料工厂需要时间。
2.工厂设施。显然，我们目前不具备即刻取代海外旧工厂的能力：
所以我们需要在本土建造新的工厂。Rivian公司正在乔治亚州建造一座新工厂，但它需要两年时间才能投入运营。

3.) Workers. Our unemployment level is only 4%, and not everyone is going to want to work in a factory.
4.) So we’re going to need more immigration! Factories in the US have *always* been staffed mainly by immigrants, whether from Quebec or Poland.
Does your daughter or sister want to work at this job?

3.工人。尽管我们的失业率只有4%，并不是每个人都愿意在工厂工作。
4.所以我们需要更多移民！美国工厂的主要劳动力一直都是由移民构成的，无论他来自魁北克还是波兰。
您的女儿或姐妹愿意从事这样的体力活儿吗？

5.) *Everything* will have to cost more!! Why did companies start manufacturing overseas? To save money. US workers cannot and will not work for $1 an hour, while people in Bangladesh might have better lives at that rate of pay.

5.所有东西都会变得更贵！企业在海外制造产品的初衷是什么？为了省钱。美国工人不可能也不愿意以每小时1美元的工资工作，而孟加拉国的人可能会因此过上更好的生活。

6.) Some products cannot be grown in the US. We have no banana farms, or tea plantations, and coffee is only produced in very small (and expensive) quantities in Hawaii. You will only be able to have whatever fresh products are available in season. No strawberries in winter. No apples in early summer. Very few avocados ( Imported avocados now account for 90% of the domestic supply)—and you first need to grow an entire tree!

6.有些产品无法在美国种植。我们没有香蕉农场、茶园，咖啡只在夏威夷少量生产（且价格昂贵）。你只能吃到当季的新鲜农产品。冬天不再有草莓供应，初夏没有苹果，牛油果也很少（进口牛油果现在占国内供应的90%）——而且哪怕只是为了能吃到应季农产品你也得先种一整棵树！

7.) Some products are superior in certain countries. Yes, we make wine and cheese and olive oil and soy sauce and spirits—but people like French champagne and Italian cheese and Spanish olive oil and Japanese soy sauce and Scotch from Scotland. No more of any of that.

7.某些国家的产品更好。是的，我们也生产葡萄酒、奶酪、橄榄油和酱油——但人们喜欢法国香槟、意大利奶酪、西班牙橄榄油、日本酱油和苏格兰威士忌。以后这些东西都没了。

8.) Ever been to an ethnic grocery store? Shut them all down—no more Japanese products or Chinese products or Italian grocery stores, or German sausage.

8.你去过移民商店吗？关掉所有这些店吧——不再有日本产品、中国产品、意大利杂货店或德国香肠了。

As long ago as 1776, Adam Smith wrote a book called The Wealth of Nations, in which he explained that different places have different specialties, and by trading, everybody is better off.

早在1776年，亚当·斯密就写了一本书叫《国富论》，他在书中解释说，不同的地方有不同的专长，通过贸易，每个人都会过得更好。

Too bad Dear Leader never read it.

可惜我们“亲爱的领袖”从未读过这本书。

David Wagner
That's an excellent idea! So why don't you start doing that? What? You don't know how? There's the Internet. YouTube videos. Do your own research. You don't have the money? Come up with a plan and go on "Shark Tank". It's easy to "just make everything in the US". The Sharks will fall all over themselves to fund you! Or, ask Elon, he's got tons of money. Now that you got your funding, start setting up the places where you're going to "just make everything in the US". I mean, how long can that take? A week? a month? 2? Then start hiring the people to train how to "just make everything in the US". Oh, yeah , you're going to have to source raw materials, so you'll also going to "just mine everything in the US" too. And you're also going to have to "just power everything in the US" too, so your going to have to "just build out the country's electrical grid". Then just get get working and there you go! Easy-peasy.

这是一个绝妙的想法！那为什么不开始这么做呢？什么？你不知道该怎么做？互联网上有很多资源，油管上也有视频。自己去研究吧。什么？你没有钱？想个创业计划，然后去参加《创智赢家》节目吧（Shark Tank）。在美国“生产一切”是很容易的！投资人会争先恐后地给你资金支持！或者问问埃隆，他有很多钱。现在你拿到资金了，开始打造你打算“在美国生产一切”的基地吧。我的意思是，这需要多长时间？一个星期？一个月？两个月？然后开始雇佣和培训员工，教他们如何“在美国生产一切”。哦，对了，你还得采购原材料，所以你还得“在美国开采一切”。你还得“为美国提供所有电力”，所以你还得“扩建国家电网”。然后就这样着手动工吧，就是这么简单！一切都简单至极。

Sven Dirks
as Biden who started it, Trump killed it. No more US American chips, not even in the far future. You know, stick it to the libs and all.

拜登只是延续了特朗普的做法，而特朗普则彻底摧毁了它。不再有美国制造的芯片，甚至在未来也不会有。你知道吗，这就是所谓的“打击自由派”。

No chips means no TV, no computer, no cellphone, no smart appliance, no modern car, no modern phone, no modern farming equipment like milking machines, no electronic banking, no GPS, no air travel for the masses and so on and so forth.

没有芯片意味着没有电视、没有电脑、没有手机、没有智能家电、没有现代汽车、没有现代农业设备比如挤奶机、没有电子银行、没有GPS、没有大众航空旅行，等等等等。

All the Mango Messiah does with his utterly stupid tariffs is making things more expensive. These days, there is no conceivable way for any single country to make everything needed in a modern society.

这个“芒果救世主”用他极其愚蠢的关税政策所做的唯一事情就是让一切变得更贵。在当今社会，任何一个国家都不可能独自生产现代社会所需的一切。

Sure, you could go back to, say, the time between WW I and WW II. At that level of technology, you’d be able to make most things in the US. There would still have to be compromises, but you could get by, I suppose. You’d also have the standard of living of the 1930s.

当然，你可以回到一战和二战之间的那个时代。在那样的技术水平下，你或许可以在美国生产大部分东西。虽然需要一些妥协，但我想还是可以凑合过的。不过，你的生活水平也将停留在1930年代。

Mick Cane
Do you have any idea how long it takes to set up aluminium production from scratch? Or of how much investment is needed?

你知道从零开始建立制铝工厂需要多长时间吗？或者需要多少投资吗？

Now, bear this in mind: aluminium production left the US, because it could be made more cheaply elsewhere. The only thing that would ever make it competitive (but only in the USA) is a tariff (tax) on imported aluminium.

记住这一点：金属铝的生产之所以离开美国，是因为在其他地方可以以更便宜的成本生产。唯一能让它在美国具有竞争力的方法是对进口铝征收关税。

So, say, I’m a billionaire with cash to invest. A startup comes to me with a proposal to build a $5billion aluminium smelter. With fast-track planning, ignoring ecological concerns and ramming through consents with no public input, they reckon they should be up to full production by 2035, at which point the ROI will be blah blah…

假设我是手上有一大笔钱可以投资的亿万富翁。一家初创公司来找我，提出一个50亿美元的铝冶炼厂建设计划。如果快速推进规划，忽略生态问题，并强行通过审批而不考虑公众意见，他们估计到2035年才能实现全面生产，届时的投资回报率将是巴拉巴拉……

Now, I didn’t get to be a billionaire by putting my faith in the immutability of government policy so, of course, I’m going to do my due diligence and discover that the only way they’ll ever turn a profit is if those tariffs are still there in 2035. If they’re not, I’ve just invested billions in a total white elephant.

但我之所以成为亿万富翁，并不是因为我相信政府政策不会改变，所以我当然要做尽职调查，结果发现他们唯一的盈利方式是这些关税必须持续到2035年。如果关税取消了，那我就白白投资了数十亿美元在一个毫无价值的项目上。

OK. Now you be that billionaire. Are you going to invest in that smelter?

好了，现在轮到你做这个亿万富翁了。你会投资这个铝冶炼厂吗？
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Andy Bradford
Greed. Greed. Greed.

贪婪。贪婪。贪婪

Back in the days following your first Great Depression (Your second is on it’s way unless Trump is deposed) the US agreed Tarrifs so that US Companies could sell more abroad and make bigger and bigger profits. And that built you a huge trade surplus, exporting all your manufactured goods to poorer countries which didn’t have the manufacturing capability. And all was good in America. Standard of living soared, wages soared and prices of exports rose to pay for it.

在你们经历第一次大萧条之后（除非特朗普下台，否则第二次大萧条即将到来），美国同意实施关税，这样美国公司就可以在国外销售更多商品，并赚取越来越高的利润。这让美国建立了巨大的贸易顺差，将所有制造的商品出口到那些没有生产能力的贫穷国家。当时美国一切都很好，生活水平飙升，工资飙升，出口商品的价格上涨用以覆盖这一切支出。

But all these poor countries started developing their own manufacturing capability. Why import expensive goods from the USA if we can make them cheaper in our own country AND create jobs for our own people.
These poor countries increased capacity and now had surplus goods to sell. With much lower wages to pay, manufacturers in foreign countries could now sell their similar products to the USA at half the price of US manufactured products. And because of the greed of the US consumer, they wanted the obxt at the cheapest price, not caring about the job security of US workers.

但是，所有这些贫穷国家开始发展自己的制造业。为什么要从美国进口昂贵的商品，而不是在本国以更便宜地成本生产，同时还能为本国人民创造就业机会呢？
这些贫穷国家扩大了产能，现在有了过剩的商品可以出售。由于外国制造商支付的工资远低于美国，他们能够以美国制造产品一半的价格将类似产品卖到美国。而由于美国消费者的贪婪，他们只想要最便宜的商品，根本不在乎美国工人的就业保障。

US companies were trapped by the greed of the investors. Profits have to be increased year on year or else. Grow, grow, grow. Nobody is satisfied with “This is enough or me”. What can the Companies now do? They can’t cut workers wages - they are already paying the minimum they can. They won’t cut unproductive staff like managers to improve efficiency because that is them. They can’t cut production because that reduces turnover. Only thing left to feed the investors greed is to move manufacture to somewhere cheaper. i.e. a country where labour costs are cheap. The factories in the USA are closed down losing US jobs and new factories are built where labour is cheap - i.e. China, Vietnam, Taiwan etc. The USA has now turned it’s huge trade surplus in to a huge trade deficit.

美国公司被投资者的贪婪困住了。利润必须逐年增长，否则就完蛋了。增长、增长、再增长。没有人满足于“这就够了”。那么公司现在能做什么？他们不能削减工人工资——他们已经支付了最低限度的工资。他们不会裁掉无效率的管理层来提高效率，因为那些管理层就是他们自己。他们不能减少生产，因为那样会降低营业额。唯一能满足投资者贪婪的办法就是将生产转移到成本更低的地方，也就是劳动力便宜的国家。于是，美国的本土工厂关闭了，美国的工作岗位流失了，新的工厂在劳动力便宜的地方建立起来——比如中国、越南、台湾（地区）等。到这时候美国已经将其巨大的贸易顺差转变成了巨大的贸易逆差。

Along comes the even greedier Cockwomble of a President of the Divided States of America (who has already bankrupt half a dozen of his own companies and is now trying to break world records by Bankrupting the DSA) with his assinine ideas of how to fix this by applying tariffs on imports. President “Nobody knows more about Economics than I do” Cockwomble with his degree in Economics from Wharton Business School is ignoring every single economics principle he should have been taught if he really had studied for that degree (anyone else think he probably paid someone else to sit his exams?) and he thinks that putting tariffs on imports is going to magically get all these manufacturers to instantly move factories across oceans back to a place of very high wages, very high regulation and complete uncertainty about what is happening next week.

这时，一个更加贪婪的“分裂国总统”（指特朗普）出现了（他已经让自己的六家公司破产，现在正试图打破世界纪录，把整个国家搞破产），带着他那愚蠢的想法，试图通过加征进口关税来解决这个问题。“没人比我更懂经济”的总统先生，拥有沃顿商学院经济学学位的他，完全忽视了他在学校应该学到的所有经济学原理（没人觉得他可能是花钱雇枪手替他考试吗？）。他认为加征关税会让这些制造商立刻把工厂从大洋彼岸搬回美国这个高工资、高监管、对未来政策预期完全不确定的地方。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


All the imports which the US consumes are purchased by the American people. The only place those tariffs can end up is on prices of goods in the US. Businesses are too greedy to take a loss - the investors won’t accept it. Today’s 145% tariffs on China will mean that prices for everything made in China is going to nearly double in the shop. Inflation is about to go out of control in the US.

所有美国消费的进口商品都是由美国人民购买的。这些关税最终只会体现在美国商品的价格上。企业太贪婪了，不可能承担损失——投资者不会接受的。今天对中国商品征收的145%关税意味着所有中国制造的商品价格在商店里几乎要翻倍。美国的通货膨胀即将失控。

All the US companies who have moved manufacture to e.g. China, are never going to move them back because US labour is too expensive. i.e. their prices will be too high so they will export nothing. They are going to continue to manufacture abroad, and just add the tariffs on for US customers, sell to the rest of the world without being penalised for manufacturing in the US and watch their profits continue to grow.

所有将生产转移到中国等地的美国公司永远不会搬回来，因为美国劳动力成本太高了。也就是说，他们的价格会过高，无法出口任何商品。他们将继续在国外生产，并只为美国客户加上关税，同时向世界其他地区销售商品而不受惩罚，继续看着他们的利润增长。

So why don’t they just move manufacturing back to the USA? Because they can’t afford to.

那么，为什么他们不把生产搬回美国呢？因为他们负担不起。

Bryan Caldwell
Let’s look at what it takes to make “everything” in the US.

让我们来看看在美国制造“一切”需要什么。

Say you make widgets. Every one of the raw materials that goes into each widget is produced in the U.S. So far, so good. What about the tools used to make the widgets? Are they all made in the U.S., or if a tool has to be replaced will its replacement price be subject to a tariff because it is made overseas? Are the light bulbs in your factory made in the U.S.? If not, they’ll have to be replaced with foreign made light bulbs that will be more expensive after the imposition of tariffs.

假设你生产小挂件。每个小挂件所需的所有原材料都在美国生产。到目前为止，一切顺利。那么，用来制造这些小挂件的工具在哪里呢？它们是否全部由美国制造？如果某个生产工具需要更换，它的替代品是否会因为是在海外制造而受到关税的影响，导致价格上涨？工厂里的灯泡是美国制造的吗？如果不是，那就需要用外国制造的灯泡来替换，而这些灯泡在关税实施后会变得更贵。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


What about the cardboard boxes you ship your widgets in? Are they made in the U.S.? Will your next order for cardboard boxes be the same as your last order, or will they be more expensive because of the imposition of tariffs? How about the instruction booklet you include with every widget? Is that printed in the U.S.? How about the energy used to power your manufacturing plant? Is that all energy produced in the U.S. or does some of it come from Canada (meaning that it will cost more when tariffs are imposed on Canadian energy).

装运小挂件用的纸箱呢？它们是美国制造的吗？下一批纸箱订单的价格会不会和上一次一样，还是因为关税的原因变得更贵？每件小挂件附带的说明书呢？它们是在美国印刷的吗？为你的制造工厂供电的能源呢？这些能源是否全部来自美国，还是有一部分来自加拿大（这意味着当对加拿大能源征收关税时，成本会增加）？

What about the cleaning products you use to keep your factory spic and span? Or the products used in your employee bathrooms? How about the computers you use to keep your accounting books and the printers you use every day? How much more will they cost when they have to be periodically replaced? Do you see where this is going?


你在工厂里使用的清洁用品呢？或者员工厕所里使用的卫生用品？还有你用来记账的电脑和每天使用的打印机呢？当这些设备需要定期更换时，它们的成本会增加多少？你明白我的意思了吗？

When tariffs are imposed upon almost every other country in the world, even a product made entirely of U.S. raw materials is going to be more expensive to make because manufacturing costs will increase - pretty much across the board. Most small U.S. companies operate on very slim profit margins. They can’t afford to absorb losses in manufacturing costs. They have no choice but to increase prices to the retail consumer.

当几乎对世界上所有其他国家都征收关税时，即使一个产品完全由美国原材料制成，其制造成本也会更高，因为制造业的整体成本会普遍上升。大多数美国小型公司的利润空间非常微薄。他们无法承受制造成本上升带来的损失。他们别无选择，只能将价格上涨转嫁给零售消费者。