QA:关税国家能否团结一致击败特朗普？
Can tariff countries beat Trump by acting as one?
译文简介
单一来看，美国是最大的。但他们比欧盟小，仅欧盟+中国就可以欺负美国到月球再回来。他们甚至不需要其他国家的加入，尽管其中大多数可能都会加入。
正文翻译
Can tariff countries beat Trump by acting as one?
关税国家能否团结一致击败特朗普？
关税国家能否团结一致击败特朗普？
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This is what the world economy looks like, in the broadest overview.
从最广泛的角度来看，世界经济就是如此：
USA might be the biggest single player, but they are smaller than the EU, and just the EU+China can bully the USA to the Moon and back. They won’t even need the others to be onboard, even though most of them probably will be.
单一来看，美国是最大的，但他们比欧盟小，仅欧盟+中国就可以欺负美国到月球再回来。他们甚至不需要其他国家的加入，尽管其中大多数可能都会加入。
And…It’s not like the US can avoid paying whatever tariffs get placed on us. There’s a lot of stuff we neither have nor produce. We’ll buy less but pay more.
而且……美国也逃避不了加征在我们身上的关税。有很多东西，我们既没有，也无法生产。我们将买得更少，但付得更多。
You'll be paying the Trump Tax to finance Tax-Cuts for billionaires.
That's what Americans voted for.
Ironically, by the time Trump is finished, he might be the only billionaire left
你们将支付特朗普税来资助亿万富翁的减税计划。
这正是美国人投票支持的。
讽刺的是，等到特朗普任期结束后，他可能就成了唯一剩下的亿万富翁了。
Nah, I think the opposite will be true. Because of Trump, every American will become a billionaire… after all, rapid and out-of-control inflation would duate the dollar so quickly that a billion dollars might buy you a loaf of bread in four years!
不，我认为情况恰恰相反。因为特朗普，每个美国人都会成为亿万富翁……毕竟，快速失控的通货膨胀会让美元迅速贬值，四年后，十亿美元可能会给你买一条面包！
Here is an example of such polices working out-
OPEC might drop the petrodollar and then it'll happen pretty quick.
以下是此类政策发挥作用的一个例子：
石油输出国组织可能会放弃石油美元，而且这种情况很快就会发生。
Sup, 10^16% (10000000000000000%) inflation dropped this bad boy back after WW2 here in Hungary. That’s a hundred million trillion pengő.
100 000 000 000 000 000 000. 100 quintillion. 20 zeroes.
Not even the most recent and well memed Zimbabwean dollar could match our record inflation before the current Hungarian Forint was introduced.
哎呀，二战后匈牙利的通货膨胀率高达10^16%（100000000000000000%），这是一亿亿比索。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
100000000000000000000。100个千万亿。20个零。
即使是最新发行的、被广泛接受的津巴布韦元，也无法与匈牙利福林发行前的创纪录通胀率相提并论。
I am not an economy major.
If dollar inflation speed up, does it mean dollar will stop being the international currency? Then, furthermore speeds up dollar duation.
A positive feedback process.
我不是经济学专业的。
如果美元通胀加速，是不是意味着美元将不再是国际货币？进而加速美元贬值。
这是一个正反馈过程。
I didn’t vote for it, but yes.
我不想如此，但是是的。
I know you didn't, but here we are.
我知道你不想，但还是会来。
Weeks before Trump’s announcement, the EU offered him a zero for zero tariff trade deal. He rejected it. He doesn’t want reciprocal tariffs, he is deluded that he can bully every nation on earth into a deal only advantageous to the USA.
特朗普宣布这一决定的几周前，欧盟曾向他提出一项零对零关税的贸易协议。但他拒绝了。他不想要对等关税，他自欺欺人地认为可以胁迫地球上所有国家达成一项只对美国有利的协议。
So they only offer3f zero for zero when they knew tarriffs were coming? Why was it okay for them to have increased tarriffs on us for decades but when we respond its some vile act against an ally. Europe's double standards are ridiculous. Also the eu is smaller than the US economy.
所以，他们明知道加征关税的政策要来了，还是只提供一个零对零关税的贸易协议。
为什么他们几十年来对我们不断加征关税就没问题，但我们这么做，就是用卑鄙的手段报复盟友？
欧洲的双重标准简直荒谬。而且欧盟的经济规模还不如美国。
Here's the EU's tarriff regime as of 2023. If I'm reading figure 1 correctly, about 3/4's of all goods from the US had no tariff on them at all.
这是截至 2023 年的欧盟关税制度：链接。
如果我没有看错，那么大约四分之三的美国商品根本没有关税。
The numbers Trump is basing his 'indipendence day' tariffs on, of course, have nothing to do with any tariff levied by anyone. They're based on the 'trade deficit'- basically, how much more we spend on someone elses goods than they spend on ours. Because Trump thinks that if we buy more from a nation than they buy from us, that we're somehow loosing at trade, and Trump firmly believes that if he's loosing, someone is cheating.
我读到过，许多欧盟国家确实征收“增值税”，这基本上是针对所有商品（进口和国产都包括）征收的销售税，用于资助其社会项目。
这并非关税——关税是专门针对进口商品征收的税。特朗普“独立日”关税所依据的数字，当然与任何人征收的任何关税都无关。
它们是基于“贸易逆差”的——基本上就是我们在别人商品上的支出比他们在我们商品上的支出多多少。
因为特朗普认为，如果我们从一个国家购买的商品比他们从我们这里购买的多，那么我们在贸易上就遭受了损失，而特朗普坚信，如果他遭受了损失，那一定就是有人在作弊。
What nonsense! And the rates they displayed as the alleged tariffs were completely wrong. They included even VAT and such to bloat the numbers. We pay VAT on all products, also European ones. The most incompetent government ever! Ridiculous!
Average tariffs with the EU were at 1% both ways! It has always been a fair deal. Only an idiot would touch that. Oh, wait …
真是胡扯！他们所谓的关税税率也完全是错误的。他们甚至把增值税之类的都算进去了，就是为了夸大数字。我们的所有产品都要缴纳增值税，包括欧洲产品。真是史上最无能的政府！简直荒谬！
与欧盟的平均关税是双向1%！这一直都是公平的。只有傻瓜才会触碰这个。哦，等等……
EU had unfair tariffs against the US, it’s a fact. We are talking 5% type ranges
欧盟对美国征收了不公平的关税，这是事实。我们说的是5%左右的关税范围。
But they arent reciprocal. UK has a 10% car tariff on US cars, US now has a 25% on UK lol…
Cmon rub them brain cell together!! Lets do some simple math…
As usual the guy makes up shit and the cult follows, hoping they can lick up a lil of that diarrhea running down his leg lol
但它们不是对等的。英国对美国汽车征收10%的关税，美国现在对英国汽车征收25%的关税，哈哈……
来吧，把他们的脑细胞揉在一起！！我们来做个简单的算术……
像往常一样，这家伙胡编乱造，邪教组织也跟着编造，希望能舔到他腿上流下来的一点点腹泻物，哈哈
So why was Trump so upset when China applied reciprocal tariffs? Surely this is what winning looks like?
那么，中国实施对等关税时，特朗普为何如此恼火？这难道不就是胜利的象征吗？
Given that his ‘reciprocal tariffs’ are based on the trade deficit with each country listed I'd argue there's nothing ‘reciprocal’ about them at all.
It's also a ridiculous notion to suggest that the US was some tarriff free haven.
Going all the way back to 2014 and you will joke that the duty free tariff line hovered around 50%.
Shit, Trump slapped a 25% tariff on steel and a 50% tariff on washing machines during his first term.
This is nothing more than a ploy to short small business, gut domestic competition, increase prices and allow the wealthy to monopolise and privatise your nation.
鉴于他的“对等关税”是基于与每个列出国家的贸易逆差，我认为它们根本就没有任何“对等”可言。
认为美国是某种免关税天堂的想法也是荒谬至极。
回溯到2014年，你也许还能开玩笑的说：免关税的线大约是在50%左右。
妈的，特朗普在第一任期就对钢铁征收了25%的关税，对洗衣机征收了50%的关税。
这不过是一个阴谋，目的是做空小企业，削弱国内竞争，抬高价格，让富人垄断和私有化你的国家。
Wow that sounds just like every single MSM talking point all of which didn't happen. Only an idiot would buy the wild unhinged conspiracy theories put out by the propaganda wing of the democrat party.
哇，听起来就像主流媒体说的每一个观点都根本不成立。只有傻瓜才会相信民主党宣传部门散布的那些疯狂的阴谋论。
Prove your rebuttal.
证明你的反驳。
Then why did he not do reciprocal tariffs instead of the completely crazy tariffs he is imposing?
那么为什么他不实行对等关税，而是实行完全疯狂的关税呢？
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Have you even bothered to look at the tariff rates of other countries? I would say no based off your comment. They have taken advantage of the US for decades. Lopsided and bad for the US I encourage you to actually check into it. Not just Google it, look at the government websites.
你有没有想过去看看其他国家的关税税率？根据你的评论，我觉得你没有看过。他们几十年来一直在占美国的便宜。这种做法既不公平，又对美国不利。我建议你认真查一下。别光谷歌，去看看政府网站就知道了。
I have looked and it confirms that Trump is an out and out liar.
He claimed China had a trillion dollar deficit, it is about a quarter of that.
He held up his silly card which claimed to show tariffs charged by other countries, a not oneof the figures was true or even close because they weren’t tariffs at all but trade deficits. Then they weren’t even accurate trade deficits because they did not include services where the USA in most cases has a surplus and in many cases a large surplus. He has reneged on trade deals with Mexico and Canada that he himself signed off.
He blames other countries for being ‘horrible’ in his usual childish way, but take Thailand, Nike go there and set up a factory employing locals at absolute poverty wages, now he is going to put on large tariffs a probably put them out of work! So who is being ‘horrible’ to who? For no reason the USA will never produce shoes at rock bottom prices. Trump is a disgraceful liar, and you should be ashamed of what he is doing, and even more ashamed that you have fallen for the idiot’s stupid lies.
我查了一下，证实了特朗普是个彻头彻尾的骗子。
他声称中国有1万亿美元的贸易逆差，而美国只有这个数字的四分之一。
他举起那张愚蠢的卡片，声称上面显示了其他国家征收的关税，但这些数字没有一个是真的，甚至相差甚远，因为那根本不是关税，而是贸易逆差。而且，这些甚至不是准确的贸易逆差，因为它们没有包括服务业，而美国在大多数情况下都有顺差，而且在很多情况下顺差巨大。他已经违背了他自己签署的与墨西哥和加拿大的贸易协议。
他以他惯常的幼稚方式指责其他国家“糟糕透顶”，就拿泰国来说，耐克在那里建厂，雇佣当地人，工资却低得可怜，现在他却要征收高额关税，这很可能让他们失业！那么，到底是谁对谁“糟糕透顶”呢？美国永远不可能以最低价生产鞋子，这毫无道理。特朗普是一个可耻的骗子，你应该为他的所作所为感到羞耻，更应该为自己相信了这个白痴的愚蠢谎言而感到羞耻。
No I havent fallen for the idiots lies. I don't believe you, see
不，我没有被那些白痴谎言欺骗。我不相信你，明白吗？
I am in Sweden. USA is our third biggest export market. All experts and politicians involved in the trade here claim that Trumps tariff figures are false and not based on reality. We “do not rip you off” as Trump claims. Our people cannot change Trump’s or US voters and therefore have no incentive to lie about it. We just have to deal with it. The problem is to deal with it in negotiations when there are no fact based numbers from the US administration. As other people here have pointed out, there might be a trade deficit for goods, but the USA is a very big exporter of high tech services (Google, Amazon, consulting, etc). They should count, but Trump doesn't take them into account. That is how trade work: countries that are good at something should do what they are best at. The USA are good at many things, especially advanced services, but not low level consumer goods or many raw materials.
All that aside, will the USA in the long run benefit from high tariffs? History tells us that high tariffs don't work and lead to recession and inflation. A world recession will not benifit the USA either. Tesla cars for example are assembled in the USA but almost all parts come from abroad. What will happen to the final customer price do you think if all parts become 20–100% more expensive? I think Trump just is having a ball bullying everyone else around without regard for anyone else, including the US citizens. It is not America First, it is My Ego First.
我在瑞典。美国是我们的第三大出口市场。这里所有参与贸易的专家和政客都声称特朗普的关税数据是虚假的，并非基于事实。我们不会像特朗普声称的那样“敲诈你们”。我们的人民无法改变特朗普或美国的选民，因此没有动机就此撒谎。我们只能应对它。问题在于，在美国政府没有提供基于事实的数据的情况下，如何在谈判中应对它？
正如其他人指出的那样，商品贸易可能存在逆差，但美国是高科技服务（谷歌、亚马逊、咨询等）的出口大国。这些服务应该被考虑在内，但特朗普却没有考虑到它们。
贸易就是这样运作的：擅长某事的国家应该做自己最擅长的事情。美国擅长很多东西，尤其是高端服务，但不擅长低端消费品或许多原材料。
除此之外，从长远来看，美国会从高关税中受益吗？历史告诉我们，高关税行不通，会导致经济衰退和通货膨胀。全球经济衰退也不会让美国受益。
比如特斯拉汽车，虽然在美国组装，但几乎所有零部件都来自国外。如果所有零部件都涨价20%到100%，你觉得最终的售价会怎样？
我觉得特朗普简直是在耍流氓，欺负别人，完全不顾及别人，包括美国公民。这不是“美国优先”，而是“我的自我优先”。
Tesla is the most America made car made in America 86% Ameeican made parts unlike the next most American made car at 83% made by Ford. The tariff rates are public knowledge just look them up on the government websites.
特斯拉是美国制造比例最高的汽车，其零部件86%来自美国本土，而排名第二的福特汽车83%的零部件来自美国本土。关税税率是公开的，只要在政府网站上查一下就知道了。
You can't even relay accurate figures when you have half a point…
Tesla Reveals Percentage of Parts Made in North America for 2025 Models
Also the ‘next most American made’ vehicle is a Honda…
当你只有0.5分的时候，你甚至无法准确的传达数字……
链接：特斯拉公布2025款车型北美制造零部件比例
此外，“第二大在美国制造”的汽车是本田……
OK. Tesla was a bad example, sorry. But that was not really my point specifically. The point was that the production lines are international whether it is final parts or raw materials. However Ford imports most parts as well as General motors. The tariffs that Trump presented are not accurate and mix things up. Sweden has a value added tax of 25%. That is added to imported goods as well as domestic. That is not a tariff.
The tariff that he yesterday changed to, 10%, for most countries will function as a federal VAT (since it is new) on all imported goods since it is universal. And it will be used to finance tax cuts for the richest in USA.
好的。特斯拉是个不好的例子，抱歉。但这不是我真正的重点。重点是，无论是最终零件还是原材料，生产线都是国际化的。然而，福特和通用汽车一样，大部分零部件都是进口的。
特朗普提出的关税并不准确，而且混淆了事实。瑞典的增值税是25%。这既适用于进口商品，也适用于国内商品。这不是关税。
他昨天将大多数国家的关税改为10%，由于它是新税，因此将作为所有进口商品的联邦增值税（因为它是通用的）。这笔钱将用于资助美国富人的减税。
Advice, changing someone’s opinion is more impactful without name calling
建议：改变某人的观点比辱骂更有影响力
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Poor impoverished little USA. No wonder they need to blackmail everyone into giving them money.
可怜穷困弱小的美国。难怪他们需要敲诈勒索所有人给他们钱。
The do not „blackmail others to give them money“. It is not other countries who pay the tariffs. It is their own citizens. Sellers will put the tariff on top of the sale price.
他们没有“敲诈勒索所有人给他们钱”。支付关税的不是其他国家，而是他们自己的公民。卖家会把关税加到售价上。
True enough. We are stupid as hell.
确实如此。我们真是蠢透了。
I think you are referring to the UK, that past it colonial power whose navy peaked in 1850. No power at all today. Good luck now;
我想你指的是英国，那个曾经的殖民强国，其海军在1850年达到了顶峰。如今却毫无实力。祝你好运！
And yet still considered 3rd globally for soft power. Probably 2nd soon. Weird that huh.
但其软实力在全球仍排在第三。可能很快就会排第二了。很奇怪吧？
Canada + Mexico together is a fair sized slice of the Americas.
加拿大和墨西哥加起来占了美洲相当大的一部分地盘。
Trumps tariffs will backfire on the American people. They will not be able to buy the things that they want because other countries won't pay his tariffs and will sell their goods elsewhere
特朗普的关税将对美国人民产生反作用。他们将无法购买自己想要的东西，因为其他国家不会支付他的关税，而是会把商品卖到其他地方。