受中国六代机刺激 英日意俄等国纷纷加快研发下一代战斗机计划 开启跨国空中优势竞赛
Next Generation Fighter Programs - The multinational race for air superiority
译文简介
今天，我将继续与皇家联合服务研究所（RUSI）的贾斯廷·布朗克（Justin Bronk）讨论其他国家在开发下一代平台方面的努力，从美国的NGAD计划到欧洲和俄罗斯的项目。
正文翻译
Today, I continue my discussion with RUSI's Justin Bronk to cover off other nations efforts to develop their own next generation platforms, from the US NGAD effort to European and Russian programs.
今天，我将继续与皇家联合服务研究所（RUSI）的贾斯廷·布朗克（Justin Bronk）讨论其他国家在开发下一代平台方面的努力，从美国的NGAD计划到欧洲和俄罗斯的项目。
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Controlling the aircraft with gestures. Was that an Italian requirement?
用手势控制飞机。这是意大利的要求吗？
Amongst the sweep of demands on requirements and design complexities, I'm left wondering: where will the air forces find, and how will they train, pilots for these monstrosities?
At what point will an uncrewed, "AI" piloted system be more feasible than a meatbag with a joystick ( as Bender might put it ) ?
在众多的需求和设计复杂性的要求下，我不禁想知道：空军将如何找到并训练这些怪物的飞行员？
在什么时刻，由“AI”驾驶的飞行系统比起一个拿着操纵杆的“肉体”飞行员变得更可行？
The fact that the Su-57 is even mentioned in a conversation about different countries next/6th gen programs really demonstrates how dire things are for the Russian aviation industry.
提到苏-57与其他国家的下一代或第六代计划，真的是反映了俄罗斯航空工业的严峻形势。
Russia is not USSR though some leftist and right-wingers in the West continue to think so. A lot of Soviet Aviation industry was lost. Factories and experienced developers and personnel.
So Su-57 is a small batch of prototypes by the Soviet standards. They never fly close to the Ukrainian borders because of the risk of meeting unfriendly Patriot
俄罗斯不是苏联，尽管一些西方的左派和右派依然这么认为。很多苏联的航空工业已经丧失，工厂、经验丰富的开发人员和技术人员都消失了。
因此，苏-57对于苏联标准来说只是一个小批量的原型机。它们从不接近乌克兰边境，因为有可能遇到不友好的爱国者导弹防御系统。
I’m not entirely convinced we can classify the Tempest, FCAS, or F-X as true 6th-generation fighter jets. All three designs feature tails, which limits their stealth capabilities from certain angles, making them less effective in all aspect stealth compared to tailless designs. At this point, they seem more like advanced 5.5-generation fighters rather than fully fledged 6th-gen aircraft. The Tempest, FCAS, or F-X are more like a better version of J-20S.
我不完全相信我们可以把“风暴”计划、FCAS或者F-X称为真正的第六代战斗机。三种设计都带有尾翼，这会限制它们在某些角度的隐身能力，相比于无尾设计，它们的全方位隐身效果较差。到目前为止，它们更像是先进的5.5代战斗机，而不是完全成熟的第六代飞机。风暴、FCAS或者F-X更像是J-20S的改进版。
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I'm surprised they're not trying to build more MiG-31s (maybe they are and I've not read about it). They seem to have performed really well and been a good fit for the type of air war that Russia has ended up fighting. I'd expect them to be cheaper and easier to build than Su-57s as well, although there could be an issue with restarting production lines that were either shut down years ago or no longer exist in any capacity.
我很惊讶他们没有尝试制造更多的米格-31（也许他们正在做，我没看到相关报道）。它们似乎表现得很好，适合俄罗斯当前的空战方式。我也认为它们比苏-57便宜且更容易制造，尽管可能存在重新启动已经停产的生产线的问题，这些生产线早已停工或根本不存在。
The Su57 was offered for sale at China's Zhuhai airshow in November, remember? There were comments about rivets or screw-heads or something sticking up, and there were a couple of gaps in the airfrx that didn't suggest precision manufacturing techniques. It doesn't really matter what pro or anti Russian parrots proclaim... but, how many orders came in, after the show until now? Talk is cheap. Did anybody place an order for one?
记得去年11月，在中国珠海航展上，苏-57曾被出售吗？有人提到飞机上有铆钉或螺丝头突出，机身上也有几个缝隙，表明制造工艺并不精密。无论亲俄还是反俄的人怎么说…但，展会后到现在，究竟有多少订单进来了？空谈无用。有人下单了吗？
it is 100% a horrendous event for Russia and they should be embarrassed, but I'm more just mad at being called a Russian bot for citing a video from the bloody sun. A technical note but the su-57 at the air show wasn't an su-57 but a pre-production prototype because their production su-57s were being used in missile strikes. Again, embarrassing but not indicative of the su-57 being terrible and unable to do anything. My stance is still 'its a solid air frx, maybe it's stealthy. Just a decade too late and not in any relevant quantity"
这是俄罗斯的一个100%可耻的事件，他们应该感到羞愧，但我更生气的是因为引用了一段来自《太阳报》的视频就被称为俄罗斯水军。技术说明：在航展上展出的苏-57并不是苏-57，而是预生产的一个原型机，因为它们的量产型苏-57正在执行导弹打击任务。
再说一次，尽管尴尬，但并不能说明苏-57毫无用处，什么也做不了。我的立场依然是“它是一个坚固的机身，也许隐身效果不错。只不过晚了十年，数量也不够。”
The su-57 is a fully developed 5th gen fighter, thats hard fact. And you can see the gradual increase in production over the last few years except in 2024 because they were waiting for the new engines. And what does ,,by soviet standarts" mean ?
Also it was proven that a su-57 had entered deep into ukrianian territory when it had to take down its own drone because it didnt respond. Neither the drone nor the jet were detected
苏-57是完全成熟的第五代战斗机，这是不容置疑的事实。过去几年其产量持续增长（2024年除外，因等待新型发动机列装）。所谓"按苏联标准"究竟意指何为？
另有确凿证据显示，一架苏-57曾深入乌克兰领空击落己方失控无人机，期间该战机与无人机均未被敌方侦测系统发现。
GCAP and NGAD soon. Or maybe GCAP is soon while NGAD has already flown in 2020. Cmon lockheed, or whoever. Show us THAT
GCAP和NGAD很快就会到来。或者说，GCAP可能很快，而NGAD已经在2020年飞行过了。拜托，洛克希德马丁，或者其他公司。给我们看看那个吧！
Imagine the fun some F-22 squadrons could have in the Ukrainian theater.
Two nations fighting each other into an attritional degradation of air assets that were a generation behind to start, while also taking a heavy toll on their AA abilities.
But, it seems unlikely that we will see the F-22’s fully committed in a conflict vs another even semi peer air force before the airfrx ages out.
想象一下，某些F-22编队在乌克兰战区的表现。
两个国家互相对抗，用的都是落后一代战机的消耗战，同时还在重创他们的防空能力。
不过，看起来我们不太可能在F-22的空架逐渐老化之前，我们恐怕都看不到它被投入对抗哪怕是半同级对手的空战了。
the running theme im seeing is that modern nations cannot maintain the power needed for all their needs even in the best of circumstances
当前局势的核心矛盾在于：即便处于最有利的条件下，现代国家也无力维持其全方位所需的军事力量。
I mean, wasting trillions on two forever wars for two decades is far from “the best of times.”
But yeah, it’s hard to fund big programs when the entire world hurtles deeper into wealth inequality strangling national budgets.
我是说，浪费数万亿在两场永远的战争上，持续了二十年，远不是“最好的时光”。
但的确，当全球财富不平等不断加剧，国家预算受制时，资金支持大型项目真的很困难。
First "3 days to Kiev" and now "Pak Da will enter service 2025". I wonder if time just flows differently in russia.
首先是“3天到基辅”，然后是“PAK-DA隐身战略轰炸机将于2025年服役”。我真怀疑俄罗斯的时间是不是流动得不同。
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This MiG 41 project sounds like something a 9yo boy designed. It’ll have lasers, and it can fly in outer space, and it’ll go to the North Pole!
这个米格41项目听起来像是一个9岁小男孩设计的。它有激光武器，可以在外太空飞行，还能去北极！
Notably absent: SAAB, EMBRAER
We have been here before. When the 2nd generation peaked with large, complex, expensive, unsustainable Tomcats, XB70s.
Technology was developed to allow "simpler" hornets and falcons to do the job. Hell, the buff is still viable thanks to platform upgrades and better delivery vectors.
It will be painful, it will be wasteful. We will see something like the tigershark fall into oblivion.
得注意的是，萨博（SAAB）和巴西航空工业（EMBRAER）并未参与其中。
这一幕我们似曾相识——当第二代战机发展到顶峰时，"雄猫"以及女武神轰炸机等机型变得庞大、复杂、昂贵且难以持续。后来技术的发展让"大黄蜂"和"战隼"这类更简洁的战机得以胜任任务。甚至"B52"轰炸机至今仍通过平台升级和更先进的投送方式保持战斗力。
这一转型过程必将伴随阵痛与浪费，我们将目睹"虎鲨F20"之类的机型彻底退出历史舞台。
Seems to me the most logical short term defence program for Europe: protect, arm and secure Ukraine. Whatever it takes. Yes do the military drills back home, arm up etc, but Ukraine is Europe’s best defence and barometer of how things might play out. If Russia sees Europe and US abandon Ukraine it will only embolden Russia/China. We need to learn from the mistakes of history. The outcome in Ukraine will have major tremors. Ukraine have modern front line experience fighting Russian forces and are willing to keep fighting - imagine that, after 3 years of hell, their troops and leader aren’t backing down. Short of NATO or escalation, Europe needs to spend some serious GDP on defence but doing everything they can for Ukraine. Yes get those Tempests up in the Air ASAP but it’s not the interim strategy. Ukraine is. Japan’s only interim strategy seems to be US and Australian forces. Japan especially needs to become a viable deterrent in China’s push south and China will not like a war on both fronts, even if one side is a proxy war via Russia. AIR programs aside, the best thing we can do right now is take care of our neighbours on the front line: Ukraine and Japan. That will likely send a bigger message than any stealth jet program that can’t do anything for 10+ years. Just my opinion.
在我看来，对欧洲来说，最具逻辑的短期防御计划是：保护、武装并确保乌克兰的安全。不惜一切代价。
是的，可以进行国内的军事演习、加强武装等等，但乌克兰是欧洲最好的防线，是评估局势发展的晴雨表。
如果俄罗斯看到欧洲和美国抛弃乌克兰，只会让俄罗斯和中国更加有恃无恐。我们需要从历史的错误中吸取教训。
乌克兰的结局将带来重大的连锁反应。乌克兰拥有与俄罗斯作战的现代前线经验，且愿意继续战斗——想象一下，在三年的地狱之后，他们的军队和领导人没有退缩。除非北约介入或局势升级，否则欧洲需要在国防上投入更多的GDP，但同时做的一切都是为了乌克兰。
是的，赶快让风暴计划（Tempest）起飞。日本的策略似乎只有依赖美国和澳大利亚的力量。日本特别需要成为有效的威慑力量，遏制中国的南进，中国不会喜欢在两个战线作战，即使一方是通过俄罗斯代理的战争。
除了空中计划，眼下我们能做的最好的事情是照顾好前线邻国：乌克兰和日本。这可能比任何无法在10年内投入使用的隐身战机计划更能传递信息。仅仅是我个人的看法。
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Honestly a good stopgap for UCAVs or Loyal Wingman may be to take obsolete or obsolecent manned aircraft and configure them for remote flight. F-4s and legacy F-16s should be easy enough to put modern weapon hardpoints (assuming they even need the upgrade), and you could use them as attack craft, while your 5th/6th gen aircraft provide control/top cover.
老实说，对于无人战机（UCAV）或忠诚僚机的一个不错的应急方案，可能是利用过时或即将淘汰的有人驾驶飞机，并将其改装为远程无人驾驶飞机。F-4和老式F-16应该很容易装配现代化的武器挂点（假设它们甚至需要升级），你可以将它们用作攻击机，而你的5代或者6代战斗机则提供空中掩护。
Germany seems to double down less on the F-35 and more on the Eurofighter similar to the F5, which isn’t surprising considering EF has a lot more untapped growth potential than the Rafale to begin with. The main reason for procuring the F-35 seems to be nuclear deterrence. With the improvements in sensor technology the European 4.5 are becoming a lot more dominant in the supposed era of fifth gens, leveraging their substantial lead in AAM technology.
德国似乎减少了对F-35的依赖，更加倾向于购买升级版的欧洲战斗机，类似于F5战机，这并不令人惊讶，因为欧洲战斗机的潜力比“阵风”要大得多。购买F-35的主要原因似乎是为了核威慑。随着传感器技术的进步，欧洲的4.5代战斗机在所谓的5代时代中变得越来越具有优势，充分发挥了它们在空空导弹技术上的显著优势。
honestly a bit dissapointed that we didnt even get a shoutout to the swedish next gen fighter project concidering saab has already announced they are working on a prototype
老实说，有点失望，没看到有人提到瑞典的下一代战斗机项目，毕竟萨博SAAB已经宣布正在开发原型机了。
They've never even made a 5th gen, and their whole M.O. has been "cheap". Not going to happen; they will never have the budget.
瑞典从未制造过5代机，而且他们的全部操作模式就是“便宜”。这不可能发生；他们永远没有足够的预算。
I actually do think what SAAB see as the future is CCA and that was one of the reason they left the Tempest coalition as one of the main developers. At least I hope so as that going for a new generation of aircraft in my humble opinion makes no sense.
Why? I do think the cost of these new "6:th gen" aircraft to develop, buy AND maintain will be mindboggling (not to mention delayed) and will break any budget unless cutting down the numbers of aircraft way too low.
So instead going for "6:th gen" why not go for CCA instead, initially teamed up with current generations of (improved?) aircraft?
UAV´s has already totally reshaped ground warfare. CCA Air warfare is next.
我其实认为萨博看到的未来是CCA（协同作战空中平台），这也是他们作为主要开发者之一退出暴雨战机联盟的原因之一。至少我希望如此，因为我个人认为追求新一代战机没有意义。
为什么？我认为开发、购买和维护这些“6代机”的成本会令人咋舌，如果不减少飞机数量，预算将会崩溃。
所以与其追求“6代机”，为什么不选择CCA，最初与现有和改进过的飞机进行协同作战呢？
无人机已经彻底改变了地面战斗。CCA空战是下一个。
I think the issues raised in USAF NGAD paper released a couple of weeks ago, needs to be discussed. Is high speed still needed ? Is the ability to dog fight still needed, when range and the best stealth you can get becomes the premium. The convergence of bomber and fighter design requirements implies the modified (I expect) B-21 design with a fighter based radar and detection suite the NGAD solution ?
Arguably, the peace dividend and anti=terrorism spending in Iraq and Afghanistan has ensured that the USA hasn't replaced or its aircraft, naval and army equipment quickly enough and the entire problem today is the need to modernise everything at the same time.
The other question is Is this another Russia tech scare ? (remember the Mig-25) Does China really have the digital and materials engineering to really match which the USA/Europe is capable of manufacturing anyway.
我认为美国空军最近发布的NGAD论文中提出的问题值得讨论。高速性能是否仍然必要？
当续航和最佳隐身性能成为最重要因素时，空战能力还需要吗？轰炸机和战斗机设计要求的趋同是否意味着B-21设计被修改，以配备基于战斗机雷达和探测系统的NGAD解决方案？
可以说，伊拉克和阿富汗的和平红利和反恐支出使得美国没有及时替换或更新其飞机、海军和陆军装备，而今天的整个问题是需要同时把装备都现代化。
另一个问题是，这是不是又一次俄罗斯技术恐慌时刻？（记得米格-25吗？）中国真的有数字化和材料工程技术来匹敌美国和欧洲的制造能力吗？
I read an interesting article about how the US' ICBM arm of the nuclear triad was the least useful arm and could be dropped.
Japan could be in a much better position if they could just apologize openly, directly and meaningfully to South Korea. For all their shame and responsibility culture, that bridge is just too long for them to cross.
That could provide for a true trilateral alliance with the US rather than them being allied to each other through the US.
我读过一篇有趣的文章，讲到美国的洲际弹道导弹是核三位一体部分是最没用的一部分，可能会被淘汰。
如果日本能够公开、直接且有意义地向韩国道歉，他们可能会处于更有利的位置。尽管他们有羞耻感和责任文化，但这一桥梁对于他们来说似乎太难跨越了。
这将为他们与美国之间的真正三边联盟提供机会，而不是通过美国相互结盟。
I don't really see how the Su-35 order upsets the balance of power between Iran and Saudi Arabia. It will just mean that Iran has, probably only a fairly small number, of credible 4.5 gen aircraft which will still be outmatched by Saudi's Eurofighters and late-model F15s. Plus they are almost definitely going to order some latest model Eurofighter or Rafale soon.
我不太明白苏-35订单如何打破伊朗与沙特之间的力量平衡。它只意味着伊朗可能拥有少量较为可靠的4.5代战斗机，但它们仍会被沙特的欧洲战斗机和最新型号的F-15压制。而且，他们很可能很快就会订购一些最新型号的欧洲战斗机或阵风。
Idea of UK removing France from industrial leadership in aerospace is a bit laughable when they have Dassault and airbus are french. Their leader in Europe by quite a long way.
Sweden has more of an aerospace industry left.
关于英国将法国排除在航空航天工业领导地位之外的想法有点可笑，因为达索（Dassault）和空客（Airbus）是法国的。它们在欧洲的领先地位遥不可及。
瑞典在航空航天行业的份额更大一些。
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Russia working on 7th gen fighters?
Well bekistan is working on 9001th gen fighter
俄罗斯正在研发7代战斗机？
好吧，巴基斯坦正在研发9001代战斗机。
I feel like the part about Italy and the UK was a bit too pessimistic, those countries still have a really solid military industrial base, being capable of producing cutting edge equipment, they have historical ties in the aerospace industry ( Eurofighter, F35A, F35B, Harrier have been fielded by both). It's true that the US new position will probably force a rethinking of the spending, but the two nations still operate in the frxwork of European security, so they won't need to do everything by themselvs
我觉得关于意大利和英国的部分有点悲观，这两个国家依然拥有非常坚实的军事工业基础，能够生产尖端装备，且它们在航空航天行业有着深厚的历史联系（欧洲战斗机、F-35A、F-35B、鹞式战机都由两国共同服役）。
的确，美国政府的新立场可能会迫使重新考虑开支，但这两个国家仍然在欧洲安全框架内运作，因此他们不需要单独承担所有责任。
Chinese stealth prototypes are still just trying to compete with the B-2, B-21, F-22 and F-35. NGAD is something else altogether.
and don't forget B-21 can hit Chinese targets without tankers from the contiguous US.
中国的隐身原型机仍然只是在试图与B-2、B-21、F-22和F-35竞争。NGAD是完全不同的东西。
别忘了，B-21可以从美国本土直接打击中国目标，甚至不需要加油机。