QA：关税战中会出现明显的赢家吗？还是只会有输家？
Will there be a clear winner in the tariffs wars, or will there be only losers?
译文简介
赢家将会有很多。以下是我脑海中浮现的几个：
正文翻译
Will there be a clear winner in the tariffs wars, or will there be only losers?
关税战中会出现明显的赢家吗？还是只会有输家？
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There will be many winners. Here's a few off the top of my head:
American repo men.
American bankruptcy lawyers.
Cargill, Monsanto, and other Americans agricultural giants, because they'll be buying up farms dirt cheap.
BYD, Geely, and other Chinese car manufacturers, since the US is destroying its own exports.
Dassault, Rheinmetall, and other European arms companies, as America is no longer trusted.
Russia, Iran, North Korea, Afghanistan, and Cuba, because everyone is basically sanctioned now.
European and Canadian universities and hospitals, thanks to the academics and doctors fleeing the US.
Canadian media companies, as there is suddenly a massive investment of international financing for Canadian film and television to fill the void of cancelled America media.
赢家将会有很多。以下是我脑海中浮现的几个：
美国回购人员。
美国破产律师。
嘉吉、孟山都和其他美国农业巨头，因为他们将以极低的价格收购农场。
比亚迪、吉利和其他中国汽车制造商，因为美国正在摧毁自己的出口产品。
达索、莱茵金属和其他欧洲军火公司，因为美国不再受到信任。
俄罗斯、伊朗、朝鲜、阿富汗和古巴，因为现在基本上所有国家都受到了制裁。
欧洲和加拿大的大学和医院，这要归功于逃离美国的学者和医生。
加拿大媒体公司，因为突然出现了大量国际融资，用于加拿大的电影和电视，以填补美国媒体被取消的空白。
Companies mining and dealing in gold.
China, Australia, Russia, and Canada, as the world's largest gold producing countries.
Canadian gas exporters, who are now free to sell LNG to Japan at market prices instead of the US at massive discounts.
China, because they will own the moon, and control the world's He3 fuel source for centuries.
Conspiracy theorists, who will sell their nonsense to morons blaming the economic collapse on reptileans.
Houthi, Al Qaeda, Hamas, and other terrorist organizations that have been suppressed by the US military.
The drug cartels, because their will be far less border security after the economy collapses.
欧元，因为它是下一个全球储备货币。
从事黄金开采和交易的公司。
中国、澳大利亚、俄罗斯和加拿大，是世界上最大的黄金生产国。
加拿大天然气出口商，现在可以自由地以市场价格向日本出售液化天然气，而不是以大幅折扣向美国出售。
中国，因为他们将拥有月球，并在未来几个世纪内控制世界氦气燃料来源。
阴谋论者，他们会把他们的无稽之谈卖给白痴，把经济崩溃归咎于爬行动物。
胡塞武装、基地组织、哈马斯和其他被美国军方镇压的恐怖组织。
贩毒集团，因为经济崩溃后，边境安全将大大减弱。
Putin and his merry band of Russian oligarchs.
Musk and his merry band of America oligarchs.
Kim and his weird sister.
MERCOSUR, because every country in South America is going to trying to join.
Historians, because people will finally listen to them and buy their books.
美国电视布道家，因为每个人都会感到恐惧。
普京和他的俄罗斯寡头团伙。
马斯克和他的美国寡头团伙。
金将军和他古怪的妹妹。
南方共同市场，因为南美洲的每个国家都想加入。
历史学家，因为人们最终会听他们说话，买他们的书。
I’ll add, within the US, people who can repair and rebuild durable goods such as power tools, cars, and consumer electronics.
Americans won’t be able to afford new cars. If one can take an old car (either US or non-US origin), or a “totaled” car, and rebuild it to the point where it’s pretty good and should last for another 10 years, that will be a very relevant set of skills. Likewise with laptops and mobile phones.
Refurbished goods that are “good enough, I guess” will be the way of the future for those unfortunate to live within the current US.
To be fair this isn’t all bad: in the long run humanity needs to shift to a more sustainable civilization with more of a circular economy, or steady state economy as it is also called. Some experiences and lessons learned by Americans making do with what already exists, rather than building and buying new, may prove valuable to humanity as a whole.
我要补充的是，在美国，能够修理和翻新电动工具、汽车和消费电子产品等耐用品的人并不多。
美国人将买不起新车。如果有人能把一辆旧车（无论产自美国还是其他国家）或“报废”汽车翻新到相当不错的状态，还能再用10年，那将是一套非常实用的技能。笔记本电脑和手机也是如此。
对于那些不幸生活在当今美国的人来说，那些“我猜足够好”的翻新商品将成为未来的趋势。
公平地说，这并非全是坏事：从长远来看，人类需要转向一个更可持续的文明，更多地采用循环经济，或者说是所谓的稳定状态经济。美国人利用现有资源而不是建造和购买新物品所获得的一些经验和教训，或许对整个人类都有价值。
Pretty comprehensive list my friend with solid thoughts on why each will rise as we fall. But don't count us out yet. America is a very unique country as people go. We have always been held together by the middle. This is why the real evil at the top has always tried to ransack the middle. And are always seeking to remove the middle.
The poor will always have the numbers this is in all populations. The Middle has ability to lead those numbers as well as innovate things. The top isn't exactly one solidly Unified group. Just the top thinks everyone there has the same goal of stay there. They do share that goal they just go about it in vastly different manners.
I don't lose hope because I know too many people who rose with America and refuse to let her fall because the corrupt top thinks they can run the World from Washington DC.
Benjamin Franklin is said to have said our new government is a Republic, now pray you keep it. Our Republic is in peril but we aren't going to lose it without a fight.
我的朋友，这份清单相当详尽，对为什么我们衰落时，每个人都会崛起有着清晰的理解。
但别急着把我们排除在外。美国是一个非常独特的国家。我们一直因为中间阶层而维系在一起。这就是为什么顶层真正的邪恶势力总是试图掠夺中间阶层，并且总是试图消灭中间阶层的原因。
穷人的数量永远如此之多，在所有人口中都是如此。中间阶层有能力引领这些人，并进行创新。顶层并非一个完全统一的群体。只是顶层阶层认为每个人都有相同的目标，那就是保住自己的位置。他们确实有共同的目标，只是实现目标的方式截然不同。
我不会失去希望，因为我认识太多与美国一同崛起的人，他们拒绝让她衰落，而腐败的顶层阶层认为他们可以从华盛顿特区统治世界。
据说本杰明·富兰克林曾说过，我们的新政府是一个共和国，现在我祈祷你们能够保住它。我们的共和国岌岌可危，但我们不会不战而败。
Good comment. Fighting for America doesn't mean fighting people who have different views, it means fighting for whole country to succeed. Maybe being forced to rely on each other will reduce the partisan rancor we experience.
好评论。为美国而战，并不意味着要与持有不同观点的人斗争，而是要为整个国家的成功而战。或许被迫互相依赖会减少我们所经历的党派仇恨。
There will be one:
Canada.
Because Drumph has become such a hated entity, that anyone or anything that he promotes, Canadians throw away, so much for any chance that the CONservative Party had to win this upcoming election,
That’s a Very Good Thing for Canada.
只有一个：加拿大。
因为特朗普已经成为一个如此令人憎恶的实体，以至于他所提倡的任何人或任何事物，都会被加拿大人抛弃，保守党赢得即将到来的大选的机会也荡然无存。
这对加拿大来说是一件非常好的事情。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Short answer. The three main winners in no particular order are-
The US government.
Bankruptcy lawyers.
Repo men in the usa.
简短回答。
三大赢家（排名不分先后）分别是：
美国政府。
破产律师。
美国的回购人员。
EU and the UK may put 25% tariffs on US made aircraft. Boeing will go bust and Airbus clean up due to lower production costs and superior aircraft.
欧盟和英国可能对美国制造的飞机征收25%的关税。波音公司将破产，而空客公司将因生产成本更低且飞机性能更佳而获得成功。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Oh, there will be a clear loser and it be south of the 49th parallel. Your country’s name will change from the USA to USC. C for Cuba, the next shit hole country. You voted for it, enjoy.
哦，肯定会有一个输家，而且输家会落在北纬49度以南。你们的国家名会从USA改成USC。C代表古巴，下一个粪坑国家。你投了票，好好享受吧。
Canada will certainly be hurt, as will the U.S., but, at the end we will win because Trump will not take over the country in accordance with his stated obxtive. We will still be standing.
加拿大肯定会受到伤害，美国也是如此，但最终我们会赢，因为特朗普不会按照他既定的目标来接管这个国家。我们依然会屹立不倒。
War is not a good analogy for tariff disputes, at least with respect to winners and losers. Countries are constantly negotiating trade issues both bilaterally and multilaterally. Tariffs and threats of tariffs are two tactics in the negotiations. It’s usually impossible to say how they affected the final result.
Although Trump uses far harsher rhetoric than previous Presidents, his basic approach to trade seems similar. He prefers confrontational negotiation to quiet diplomacy but all Presidents at least since Bill Clinton strive to get favorable trade terms for the US and goodies for special interest groups by threatening to inflict unfavorable trade terms on other countries.
把关税争端说成战争是不妥当的。至少从赢家和输家的角度来看是如此。
各国持续不断地就贸易问题进行双边和多边谈判。关税和威胁征收关税是谈判中的两种策略。通常很难说清它们如何影响最终结果的。
尽管特朗普的言辞比前几任总统强硬得多，但他处理贸易问题的基本策略似乎大同小异。他更喜欢对抗性谈判而非静默外交，自比尔·克林顿以来，历任总统都努力通过威胁其他国家，要对其施加不利的贸易条件，以此来为美国争取有利的贸易条件，并为特殊利益集团谋取利益。
The winners of tariffs war are countries that are not involved. For instance, if the USA raised tariff on steel and aluminium from Canada by 25%. It might be cheaper for them to import steel and aluminium from India! Or if the USA imposes 25% tariffs on Avocadoes from Mexico, they might eventually import them from Colombia or Peru. The market is always looking for cheaper alternatives, but this will take time to build up. It is not as if Peru and Colombia has excess avocadoes to sell to the USA or India steel and aluminium. In this sense, whichever developing market grows to fill up the slack will be the winners.
Wars are conflicts between different sides. A tariff war will have sides, obxtives for victory and surrender. Even though all parties will lose in a tariff war, one side will lose their winning obxtive, the other side then will by comparison have won.
关税战的赢家是未卷入其中的国家。
例如，如果美国将加拿大钢铁和铝的关税提高 25%。他们从印度进口钢铁和铝可能会更便宜！
或者，如果美国对墨西哥牛油果征收 25% 的关税，他们最终可能会从哥伦比亚或秘鲁进口。
市场一直在寻找更便宜的替代品，但这需要时间来积累。秘鲁和哥伦比亚并不拥有多余的牛油果可以卖给墨西哥。印度也可能没有多余的钢铁和铝。从这个意义上讲，哪个发展中市场能够增长并填补空缺，哪个就是赢家。
战争是不同阵营之间的冲突。关税战有阵营，有胜利目标，也有投降目标。即使关税战中所有各方都会失败，但一方会失去制胜目标，而另一方则相对而言获得了胜利。
There rarely is a clear winner in a Tariff War.
关税战很少会有明显的赢家。
There will only be losers of various degrees. Mexico will have it worse than other others though the US will have considerable problems.
只会有不同程度的输家。尽管美国会面临相当大的问题，但墨西哥的情况会比其他国家更糟。
The intent appears to be for the USA to mirror the tariffs and regulations of their trading partners, which are of course fair and equitable. If they are fair practices as directed at the USA, then they are fair all around.
This is called fair trade practices.
其意图似乎是想让美国效仿其贸易伙伴的关税和监管规定，这些措施当然是公平公正的。如果这些措施针对美国而言是公平的，那么它们对其他国家而言也是公平的。
这被称为公平的贸易措施。
I read that some hedge funds are betting for the US to fail massively because of Trump. I guess they could be winners. For workers, companies and consumers, it’s only bad news.
我读到一些对冲基金押注美国会因为特朗普而遭遇巨大失败。我猜他们可能是赢家。但对工人、企业和消费者来说，这只会是个坏消息。
There are no winners in a Tariff War but if Russia wins the war against Ukraine then the US will lose its hegemony and with Trump’s tax imposed on the US may lead to the US Dollar($) losing its universal currency status which would result in 90% of US citizens cost of living sky rocketing.
关税战没有赢家，但如果俄罗斯赢得对乌克兰的战争，那么美国将失去霸权，而特朗普对美国征收的税可能会导致美元失去其通用货币地位，这将导致90％的美国公民生活成本飞涨。
There already is one big loser, about to be joined by 2 other very much smaller losers. As a Canadian, there is very little we need from the USA that we can't get elsewhere. And we will. Orange juice may have been one, but since you're deporting all the pickers, we weren't going to get much anyway.
已经有一个大输家了，接下来还有两个小得多的输家。作为加拿大人，我们很少需要从美国进口，而且我们肯定能从其他地方买到替代品。橙汁或许是其中之一，但既然你们要驱逐所有采摘者，我们本来也买不到多少橙汁了。
Only losers. Tariffs hurt everyone, exporter, foreign manufacturers, importers and our economy as inflation runs rampant due to higher prices.
只有输家。关税损害了所有人的利益，包括出口商、外国制造商、进口商，以及我们的经济，因为物价上涨会导致通货膨胀。
“Winning” isn’t the goal. A level playing field is. These countries charge higher tariffs on our goods than we do on theirs. American companies should be treated fairly for a change.
“赢”不是目标，公平的竞争环境才是。这些国家对我们的商品征收的关税，比我们对他们的商品征收的关税高。美国企业应该得到公平对待。
All that Trump is suggesting is that he will impose the same tariffs on, for example, EU countries and the UK that they (and we) impose on America.
That seems fair to me.
He has also threatened countries which refused to repatriate people who had entered the US illegally with high tariffs, which has clearly focused the minds of leaders of those countries.
特朗普只是暗示，他将对欧盟国家和英国等国征收与它们（以及我们）对美国征收的关税相同的关税。
我觉得这很公平。
他还威胁那些拒绝接收遣返非法入境美国人员的国家，并对其征收高额关税，这显然引起了这些国家领导人的关注。
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Same question are there any winners in Biden’s sanctions, embargoes war with half of the world? Same answer. Nope.
同样的问题：拜登对半数国家的制裁和禁运战争，有赢家吗？答案是一样的。没有。