You Should Think About Replacing Your iPhone — Now

你该考虑换掉iPhone了——立刻马上


Will your next iPhone cost $2,000? More? The answer to that question — and the future of America’s wealthiest company and our imperiled financial markets — rests on one man with a very tricky task.

下一代iPhone会卖2000美元？更贵？这个问题的答案——连同美国最富有公司的命运及岌岌可危的金融市场——都系于一位肩负棘手任务的人。

Steve Jobs might have been the visionary who made touch-screen phones a reality, but it was the operational genius and savvy statesmanship of Tim Cook, his low-key successor, that sent Apple’s revenues and its stock price into the stratosphere. His triumph in fending off Donald Trump’s first-term threats was not without cost, however: By flattering Mr. Trump with attention while making little to no changes to Apple’s China ties, Mr. Cook played the president for the fool.

史蒂夫·乔布斯或许是实现触屏手机愿景的先驱，但让苹果营收和股价一飞冲天的，是低调继任者蒂姆·库克的运营天赋与精明政治手腕。然而他抵挡特朗普首任期威胁的胜利并非没有代价：通过殷勤奉承却几乎不改变苹果在华布局，库克把总统当傻子耍。

Now Mr. Trump is back in the White House, and he has slapped China with tariffs so high that they present a major threat to Apple’s hammerlock on the smartphone market. It’s clearly going to be harder for Mr. Cook to pull off the same trick. If he fails — and most bet he will — it could be a huge blow to his company, to the stock market and to our broader economy.

如今特朗普重返白宫，对中国加征的关税之高已威胁到苹果对智能手机市场的垄断。库克故技重施显然会更困难。若他失败——多数人押注会失败——将对苹果公司、股市乃至整体经济造成重创。

Let’s start with a sense of the stakes. Apple has largely been the world’s most valuable company since 2011, and until Mr. Trump’s tariff threats, it was worth around 8 percent of the entire S&P 500. If your retirement is invested in index funds, Apple is your single biggest investment. It’s so enormous that merely issuing a quarterly profit warning, as the company did in early 2019, rattled global financial markets.

先看利害关系。自2011年起苹果基本稳居全球市值榜首，在特朗普关税威胁前约占标普500总市值8%。若你的退休金投资指数基金，苹果就是你最大的单项投资。其体量之巨，仅2019年初发布盈利预警就震动全球金融市场。

Then let’s turn to the fact that moving production to the United States — the stated goal of Mr. Trump’s extreme tariff regime — is almost impossible for Apple. China is home to roughly 90 percent of Apple’s global production, and it’s the only country where Apple has made such extraordinary investments in people, machinery and processes over a quarter-century.

再看事实：将生产迁回美国——特朗普极端关税政策的目标——对苹果几乎不可能。中国承载苹果约90%全球产量，是苹果过去25年持续投入人力、设备和流程的唯一国家。

Analysts at the firm Wedbush estimated that a domestically built iPhone would cost more than triple its current price tag, which would mean about $3,500. Worse, America simply lacks the manufacturing expertise, the competitive industrial clusters and even the population density required to make Apple products en masse.

韦德布什公司分析师估算，美国本土组装的iPhone成本将是现价三倍多，约3500美元。更糟的是，美国根本缺乏大规模生产苹果产品所需的制造技术、竞争性产业集群甚至人口密度。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Many Apple suppliers are heavily reliant on China’s low-paid workers who migrate to cities for seasonal work, a number estimated at 300 million to 500 million adults, which even at its lower extent is nearly equivalent to every man, woman and child in the United States. In the busy holiday season, these workers are critical to Apple’s ability to ship one million iPhones per day, with each unit comprising roughly 1,000 components. Trying to move all manufacturing out of China would most likely cost hundreds of billions of dollars.

众多苹果供应商极度依赖中国进城务工的低薪劳动力，规模约3-5亿成年人，下限都接近美国总人口。旺季时，这些工人对苹果实现日产百万台iPhone（每台含约1000个元件）至关重要。将全部产能迁出中国恐耗资数千亿美元。

So in 2016, when Mr. Trump was urging his supporters to boycott Apple products and threatening huge China tariffs, little wonder that Mr. Cook, a quiet Democrat and a strong supporter of L.G.B.T.Q. rights and diversity initiatives, went on a charm offensive. He made a point of calling Mr. Trump and visiting frequently. The next year, Mr. Trump said that Mr. Cook vowed to build “three big plants, beautiful plants” in America.

因此2016年特朗普鼓动支持者抵制苹果产品并威胁加征关税时，身为民主党人且力挺LGBTQ权益的库克发动魅力攻势毫不奇怪。他特意频繁致电拜访特朗普。次年特朗普称库克承诺在美建"三个大厂，超棒的厂"。

The flattery worked, with Apple gaining broad exemptions from Mr. Trump’s tariffs. But Apple built zero plants in the United States. Its chief executive simply ran out the clock on Mr. Trump’s presidency.

谄媚奏效了，苹果获得广泛关税豁免。但苹果在美建厂数为零。这位CEO只是耗尽了特朗普的总统任期。

Since then, Apple has only grown closer to the Middle Kingdom, winning over Chinese officials by helping Chinese companies mimic, and then oust, rival multinationals that were responsible for building China’s tech manufacturing dominance over the past decade, my reporting has shown. Apple’s annual reports show the number of Chinese vendors in its top-supplier list more than tripled, to 52, from 2012 to 2023, displacing their American and Taiwanese rivals.

据我调查，此后苹果与中国越走越近，通过帮助中企模仿并排挤那些曾助力中国科技制造崛起的跨国对手来讨好官员。苹果年报显示，2012至2023年间其核心供应商名单里的中企数量增长超两倍至52家，取代了美台竞争对手。

Mr. Cook donated $1 million to and attended Mr. Trump’s 2025 inauguration. And a few weeks later Apple pledged to “spend and invest” $500 billion to expand “support for American manufacturing” during the president’s second term. Mr. Trump boasted that the investment reflected his “America First” agenda.

库克向特朗普2025年就职典礼捐款百万美元并出席。几周后苹果承诺在特朗普第二任期"投入"5000亿美元扩大"对美国制造业支持"。特朗普吹嘘这体现了其"美国优先"政策。

That promise alone won’t be enough to save Apple. Some of Mr. Trump’s advisers must realize that Apple’s promise may be nonsense. There’s little evidence the company will spend anywhere near $500 billion; the announcement mentioned just four new initiatives whose total investment is unlikely to be even one-tenth that amount. Unless the math misleadingly includes buybacks and dividends, which have nothing to do with American manufacturing, or unless further projects are really planned, the pledge, like the one Mr. Cook made in Mr. Trump’s first term, is hot air.

光靠承诺救不了苹果。特朗普部分幕僚肯定明白苹果的承诺可能是空话。几乎没有证据表明苹果会真投5000亿；声明仅提了四个新项目，总投资恐不足十分之一。除非把与制造业无关的股票回购和分红算进去，或真有后续计划，否则这承诺和库克上届任期的表态一样是空头支票。

And this time, Mr. Trump’s tariffs are far more onerous. Set to take effect on Wednesday, they are the biggest threat to Apple’s business since Mr. Jobs returned to save the company from near bankruptcy in 1997. Analysts from Rosenblatt Securities estimated they could diminish Apple’s annual profits by $40 billion. Not only did Mr. Trump say last week that he would impose a steep 54 percent tariff on China (including earlier increases); he also included at least 90 other countries, effectively short-circuiting Apple’s efforts to reroute products through Vietnam (tariffs: 46 percent) or India (27 percent). In responding with tariffs of its own, China shows no sign of backing down from a fight. Nor does Mr. Trump, who is pushing ahead with an additional 50 percent tariff first threatened on Monday.

这次特朗普关税严厉得多。周三生效的新规是自1997年乔布斯挽救濒危苹果以来最大威胁。罗森布拉特证券分析师估计年利润可能缩水400亿美元。特朗普不仅宣布对中国加征54%关税（含此前涨幅），还将至少90国纳入清单，实际上堵死了苹果经越南（46%关税）或印度（27%）转运产品的退路。中国以关税反击，毫无退让迹象。特朗普也坚持推进周一威胁的额外50%关税。

Apple is stuck, and there is no obvious way out. Even if it were possible for Mr. Cook to move Apple production out of China immediately, he would risk stirring Beijing’s ire and endangering a roughly $70 billion business there. His only option is to continue pushing more final assembly of Apple products to places like India and Vietnam while leaving the bulk of complex manufacturing in China — walking a line that grows ever thinner and more precarious. Apple shares have lost more than $1 trillion since peaking in late December.

苹果进退维谷。即便库克能立即转移产能，也可能激怒北京危及700亿美元在华业务。他唯一选择是把更多最终组装迁往印越，同时将核心制造留在中国——这条钢丝越走越险。苹果股价自去年12月峰值已蒸发超万亿美元。

Mr. Trump would be a fool not to see past Apple’s politicking this time. Then again, he often cares more about appearances than principles. Anyone betting on Apple’s future should hope Mr. Cook has one more diplomatic ace up his sleeve. This time, the odds against him are long.

特朗普若再看不穿苹果的政治把戏就是真蠢。不过他一向重表象轻原则。押注苹果未来的人只能指望库克还有外交王牌。这次，胜算渺茫。