为什么中国工资上涨没有导致更多制造业回流到美国？
Why didn't rising wages in China lead to more manufacturing returning to America?
译文简介
网友：在中国制造一台联合收割机的劳动力成本为29,500美元，而在美国相同的劳动力成本为180,000美元。
正文翻译
Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam
Labor in China to make a Combine Harvester costs $ 29,500 whereas the same labor costs $ 180,000 in US
在中国制造一台联合收割机的劳动力成本为29,500美元，而在美国相同的劳动力成本为180,000美元。
Labor in China to make a Combine Harvester costs $ 29,500 whereas the same labor costs $ 180,000 in US
在中国制造一台联合收割机的劳动力成本为29,500美元，而在美国相同的劳动力成本为180,000美元。
This is because
40% of the work in China is fully mechanized unlike only 15% in USA
The Skilled Chinese Worker is paid 2130 Yuan ($ 294) per week for 60 hours (50 hours normal plus 10 hours overtime) versus $ 1,270 a week for 40 hours in the US
The Skilled Chinese worker costs only 37,700 Yuan a year in benefits and security against a whopping $ 30,850 a year for an American worker including Insurance and Workers comp contributions
原因是： 中国40%的工作完全实现了机械化，而美国只有15%。 熟练的中国工人每周工作60小时（正常工作50小时，加班10小时），每周工资为2130元人民币（294美元），而美国熟练工人每周工作40小时，工资为1270美元。 中国熟练工人每年仅需37,700元人民币的福利和保障，而美国工人则需高达30,850美元的福利，包括保险和工人赔偿金。
40% of the work in China is fully mechanized unlike only 15% in USA
The Skilled Chinese Worker is paid 2130 Yuan ($ 294) per week for 60 hours (50 hours normal plus 10 hours overtime) versus $ 1,270 a week for 40 hours in the US
The Skilled Chinese worker costs only 37,700 Yuan a year in benefits and security against a whopping $ 30,850 a year for an American worker including Insurance and Workers comp contributions
原因是： 中国40%的工作完全实现了机械化，而美国只有15%。 熟练的中国工人每周工作60小时（正常工作50小时，加班10小时），每周工资为2130元人民币（294美元），而美国熟练工人每周工作40小时，工资为1270美元。 中国熟练工人每年仅需37,700元人民币的福利和保障，而美国工人则需高达30,850美元的福利，包括保险和工人赔偿金。
This is also because
A Ningbo line can turnover 130 Harvesters a month against 33 for a line in Akron Ohio
China cannot be touched when it comes to manufacturing
此外，原因还在于： 宁波的生产线每月可以生产130台收割机，而俄亥俄州阿克伦的生产线每月只能生产33台。 在制造业方面，中国无可匹敌。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
A Ningbo line can turnover 130 Harvesters a month against 33 for a line in Akron Ohio
China cannot be touched when it comes to manufacturing
此外，原因还在于： 宁波的生产线每月可以生产130台收割机，而俄亥俄州阿克伦的生产线每月只能生产33台。 在制造业方面，中国无可匹敌。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
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Wouldn’t it be funny if China outsourced low end manufacturing to America? Can America compete with Bangladesh for garments? Vietnam for slippers?? Malaysia for wooden mallets???
Washington certainly seems to want that bright future for their own citizens.
如果中国将低端制造业外包给美国，岂不是很有趣吗？美国能与孟加拉国竞争服装制造吗？能与越南竞争拖鞋吗？能与马来西亚竞争木槌吗？？华盛顿显然希望美国公民能拥有那样的光明未来。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
If you remove the two advantages that China has, “Parts Sourcing” and “Amortized cost” then making in India would be cheaper even after tariffs
Or rather I must say that India should heavily invest in creating the ecosystem of Parts supply chain.
如果去掉中国的两个优势：“零件采购”和“摊销成本”，那么即便加上关税，在印度制造会更便宜。
或者我应该说，印度应该大量投资于建立零件供应链的生态系统。
That needs huge investments for many years without expecting any profits
Only a STATE can do that
You can't expect individuals to do that
China offered to bankroll India in 2018 and India kicked them away
这需要多年的巨大投资，而不能期望立即获利。
只有国家才能做到这一点。
你不能指望个人来做这个。
2018年中国曾提议为印度提供资金支持，但印度拒绝了他们。
yes KB US can touch china in Manufacturing if and only if it Follows MY model .My model is first massive deflation on health spending using Indian Doctors and Indian medicine to cure most of the americans and cut the cartel of US Health Industry, It will free up 1.5 trillion dollar and then use that 1.5 trillion dollars to create Industrial cities for vertical integration then the SOURCING COMPONENT will reduce by a big margin , In that way they can industrialize itself up to 1970s level atleast.
是的，KB，美国只有在遵循我的模型时才能赶上中国。我的模型是首先通过利用印度医生和印度药物，进行大规模的健康支出通缩，治疗大多数美国人，并打破美国健康产业的卡特尔。这样可以释放出1.5万亿美元，然后利用这1.5万亿美元创建工业城市，进行垂直整合，从而大大降低零部件采购成本。通过这种方式，他们至少能使自己的工业化水平达到1970年代的水平。
Are the Chinese workers paid as much or enough so they get a good income from it? Not in USdollars but in buying/spending power where they live?
Chinese workers having 50–60 hour work weeks encourages the thought that others in China are taking in the real profits while the workers get scraps.
中国工人的工资是否足够高，让他们能够从中获得良好的收入？不是以美元来衡量，而是以他们所在地区的购买力和消费能力来衡量？
中国工人每周工作50-60小时，这让人觉得，其他地方的人在获得真正的利润，而工人们只得到了微薄的收入。
Part of my reaction is that if it’s too much talk about the high work ethics of Chinese workers and not enough talk about how it’s worth it in the way that they can also enjoy that earned wealth then… well, will the next generation wish to experience the same threadmill?
但现实是，中国工人的薪酬是值得的——可能不能让他们过上像美国那样富裕的生活，但足以让他们在中国过上富足的物质生活。这无疑是件好事。
我反应的一部分是，如果一直在谈论中国工人的高工作伦理，而不够谈论他们如何也能享受这份劳动所得的财富，那么，下一代会希望经历同样的痛苦吗？
In India cost of a combine is around 16 to 19 lakh.How many combine's cost is in the table u have shown for comparison?Is it for one combine in three countries?In India u have shown its cost is 193810 dollar means Rs86/-×193810=Rs166,67,660 which is similar to cost of 10 combines.
在印度，一台联合收割机的成本大约是16到19万卢比。你在表格中显示的成本是指多少台联合收割机的成本？这是指三国的每台联合收割机的成本吗？在印度，你显示的成本是193810美元，换算成86卢比每美元，就是Rs86×193810=Rs166,67,660，这个金额与10台联合收割机的成本相似。
It is not mechanisation or worker benefits that leads to this vast disparity in costs. The single biggest factor is differences in the purchasing power of currencies. If CNY and INR exchange prices reflected their actual purchasing power you would get very similar costs for the three countries.
导致成本巨大差异的并不是机械化或工人福利。最大因素是货币购买力的差异。如果人民币和印度卢比的汇率反映了它们的实际购买力，那么三国的成本应该非常相似。
What is the source on mechanization of workforce being 40%?
If I follow correctly, it seems that this means that the majority of the industrial workforce of China work in mechanized/automated factory centers. Whereas most of the industrial workforce in the US work in smaller workshop sized factories?
关于40%的劳动力机械化来源是什么？
如果我理解正确的话，这似乎意味着中国的大多数工业劳动力都在机械化/自动化的工厂中心工作。而美国的大多数工业劳动力在较小的车间规模的工厂工作？
One can then see that not so impossible possibility, that the Red Dragon might eventually become the same the decaying Bald Eagle, labor might get expensive when that massive population/labor pool begins to plateau.
这又提出了另一个问题。机械化劳动力也为老龄化的经济为自动化做好了准备，帮助缓解劳动力成本的增加。
可以看出一个并非不可能的情形，即中国可能最终会像美国一样，劳动力成本变得昂贵，当那个庞大的劳动力人口开始达到峰值时。
We had a huge temporary shutdown on the ports and other operations due to longshoreman unxs protesting automation and wanting other demands. Some of these people even made around 80k a year for work that barely requires high school level education. It’s no wonder that they refuse to bring more production and other work back to America.
由于码头工人联合会抗议自动化并提出其他要求，我们经历了一次大规模的临时停工。甚至一些人每年赚80k美元，做的工作几乎不需要高中教育。这也就不难理解他们为什么拒绝将更多的生产和其他工作带回美国。
This is only true because our dumb asses allowed for this to happen!!! Greedy ass unxs always threatening to strike if pay isn't raised to the point that damn near all manufacturing was sent overseas! And don't be surprised if it happens again!!! unxs were the primary reason for the transition from USA to CHINA! unxs are licking their chops and praying for a revitalization of American manufacturing to go through this process again!
这只是真的，因为我们这些傻瓜允许这种情况发生！！！贪婪的工会总是威胁要罢工，如果薪水没有提高到足够的水平，几乎所有的制造业都被外包到海外！别惊讶，如果这种情况再次发生！！！工会是美国制造业转移到中国的主要原因！工会正在摩拳擦掌，祈求美国制造业的复兴再次经历这个过程！
To add to the answers point of increasing mechanize manufacturing in China: China has become by far the biggest user of industrial robots in manufacturing. And it’s still growing. About 35–40% of the worlds industrial robots go to China.
That means, even if US would use more automated manufacturing to reduce cost: China already is far ahead in that
为了补充之前关于中国机械化制造的回答：中国已经成为全球使用工业机器人最多的国家，而且仍在增长。全球大约35%到40%的工业机器人都流向中国。
这意味着，即使美国使用更多的自动化制造来降低成本，中国也已经远远走在前面。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Chinese workers are more hardworking, disciplined, skillful and intelligent compared to the average American worker . Chinese are the smartest race in the world with the highest IQ.
中国工人比普通美国工人更加勤劳、纪律性强、技术熟练且聪明。中国人是世界上最聪明的种族，拥有最高的智商。
A few questions, if I may.
Are those wage figures accurate? And, how do they compare to food prices? I'm fairly sure Americans don't have insurance paid by the boss, it comes out of the workers pocket.
The “parts sourcing” value: where are these parts from? There's not that much they can get from American companies.
我有几个问题，如果可以的话。
那些工资数据准确吗？它们与食品价格相比如何？我敢肯定，美国人并不是由老板支付保险，而是从工人自己口袋里扣除的。
“零部件采购”部分：这些零部件来自哪里？美国公司能提供的零部件并不多。
Well, the search engines of the internet are saying it is because of:
Global Supply Chains………because many supply chains originated from Asia.
Automation…advances in automation are already in the Asian countries.
Low-Cost Countries……other than China, many other Asian countries are competing with China by offering their lowest wage demands to global companies that were formerly in China.
嗯，互联网的搜索引擎说这是因为： 全球供应链……因为许多供应链源自亚洲。
自动化……自动化的进展已经出现在亚洲国家。
低成本国家……除了中国，许多亚洲国家通过提供最低的工资要求，正在与中国竞争，吸引曾经在中国的全球公司。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Infrastructure and Expertise…….China has all the building of manufacturers and China already has manufacturing expertise that the United States cannot replicate.
消费者偏好……因为美国人希望产品价格便宜，他们不在乎产品是否在亚洲制造。
基础设施和专业知识……中国已经建立了完善的制造基础设施，并且中国已有制造专业知识，这是美国无法复制的。
My last job was managing a big manufacturing operation that included the company’s primary warehouse/distribution center that stocked a line of products made in a Chinese partner’s factory. Their transfer costs wouldn’t even cover my plant’s materials if made here in the U.S. not including labor and overhead like transportation, SG&E. Thus began my quest to understand this quandary.
我之前的工作是管理一个大型制造业务，其中包括公司主要的仓储/分销中心，存放在中国合作伙伴工厂生产的产品。他们的转运成本甚至不足以覆盖我工厂的材料费用，更别提人工和运输、销售管理等费用了。这让我开始着手理解这个难题。
美国及大多数西方公司，采用我所称的分层供应链模型。在一个公司的生产供应链中，可能有数十家企业，每个企业都必须支付自己庞大的管理、销售、营销、技术、生产组织费用，并且仍然需要盈利以满足股东的要求。中国则以“中国产业公司”方式运作，就像我们19世纪的“强盗资本家”那样运作。他们只需要覆盖生产各个阶段的成本，同时在总销售额上获得可接受的投资回报率，并几乎没有我们西方所面临的那种高昂的监管成本。中国通过煤电来运行他们的能源密集型产业，而我们这里的无知政客却在关闭我们的煤电厂。
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中国燃烧了全球53%的煤炭消费量，是美国的7到8倍，并且每周都会批准建设三座新的煤电厂，依据2023年能源与清洁空气研究中心的报告。2022年中国批准建设了168个燃煤单元，而拜登政府则迫使美国关闭了另外75个煤电厂。如果有人认为重工业（消耗大量能源的制造业）会回到美国，那是不太可能的，因为拜登政府的煤炭政策导致我们电力成本飙升。
Nicholas Thwaites
Because as China became more expensive, the manufacturing moved to somewhere that was cheap like Vietnam or Cambodia or somewhere rather than a country that was still expensive like the USA.
因为随着中国变得越来越贵，制造业转移到了像越南、柬埔寨这样便宜的地方，而不是像美国这样的昂贵国家。
Largely because Chinese workers are paid substantially substantially less than American workers. Substantially. You can cut off a few subtantiallies and it's still substantially cheaper to manufacture things in China. Check back in 50 years.
主要是因为中国工人的工资远低于美国工人。差距非常大。即使去掉一些“非常”，在中国制造的成本仍然远远低于美国。50年后再看看。
Wages are only one factor. China has invested heavily in automation. That is why they dominate manufacturing. It isn’t wages.
US companies waste their profits on stock buybacks that primarily enrich their executives instead of investing in their future. Their inability to compete is a product of the personal greed of their management not unfair competition.
工资只是一个因素。中国在自动化方面进行了大量投资。这就是它在制造业中占主导地位的原因，这与工资无关。
美国公司将利润浪费在股票回购上，这主要是为了让高管富裕起来，而不是投资未来。他们无力竞争的原因在于管理层的个人贪婪，而非不公平竞争。
Despite the rise, Chinese wages are still way lower than those in the US.
If Chinese wages rise, foreign companies may prefer to shift to other low wage countries, not to the US.
尽管中国的工资上涨，但仍然远低于美国的工资。如果中国工资继续上涨，外国公司可能更愿意转移到其他低工资的国家，而不是美国。
While rising wages in China have made it less of a low-cost manufacturing hub than in the past, several other crucial factors have prevented a large-scale return of manufacturing to the United States:
尽管中国的工资上涨使其不再像过去那样是一个低成本的制造中心，但一些关键因素仍然阻止了制造业大规模回流到美国：
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Established Supply Chains: China has built incredibly complex and efficient supply chains over decades. Many components and raw materials are readily available and cost-effectively sourced within China or neighboring Southeast Asian countries. Replicating these intricate networks in the US is a significant undertaking.
Agglomeration Effects: Industries tend to cluster together, creating specialized knowledge, infrastructure, and labor pools. Moving production back to the US would require rebuilding these clusters, which takes time and investment.
制造生态系统的复杂性：
已建立的供应链： 中国几十年来建立了非常复杂且高效的供应链。许多组件和原材料可以在中国或邻近的东南亚国家中以成本效益高的方式获得。要在美国复制这些复杂的网络是一个巨大的工程。
集聚效应： 行业往往会聚集在一起，形成专业的知识、基础设施和劳动力池。将生产转回美国需要重建这些集群，这需要时间和投资。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Reduced Labor Dependence: Modern manufacturing is increasingly reliant on automation and advanced technologies. While rising wages in China make labor costs less of a dominant factor, the initial capital investment in automation can be substantial in the US.
Focus on Skilled Labor: Reshoring often requires a skilled workforce to operate and maintain advanced machinery. The US faces a shortage in certain skilled trades, making large-scale reshoring challenging.
自动化与技术：
减少对劳动的依赖：现代制造业越来越依赖自动化和先进技术。尽管中国的工资上涨使得劳动力成本不再是主导因素，但在美国，自动化的初期资本投资可能是相当巨大的。
注重技能劳动力：重新带回生产通常需要一支能够操作和维护先进机械的熟练劳动力。美国在某些技术工种上面临劳动力短缺，这使得大规模的生产回流变得具有挑战性。
Regulatory Environment: Businesses often cite the regulatory environment in the US (environmental regulations, labor laws, etc.) as more complex and costly than in some other countries.
Infrastructure: While the US has developed infrastructure, certain areas may require upgrades to efficiently support large-scale manufacturing.
Energy Costs: Energy costs can fluctuate and may be higher in some parts of the US compared to China.
Proximity to Markets: For goods destined for Asian markets, manufacturing in China offers significant logistical advantages.
除工资外的其他成本因素：
监管环境：企业常常指出，美国的监管环境（如环境法规、劳动法等）比一些其他国家更为复杂和昂贵。
基础设施：虽然美国的基础设施已发展完善，但某些地区可能需要升级，以有效支持大规模制造业。
能源成本：能源成本可能会波动，且在美国某些地区可能高于中国。
靠近市场：对于面向亚洲市场的商品，在中国制造具有显著的物流优势。
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China's sheer manufacturing capacity is enormous. It would take significant investment and time for the US to build the infrastructure and production capabilities to replace even a portion of that output.
中国制造能力的规模：
中国的制造能力庞大。美国需要大量的投资和时间，才能建设起基础设施和生产能力，以替代中国部分的生产输出。
The US economy has increasingly shifted towards higher-value manufacturing, research and development, and services. While there is some reshoring, it often focuses on advanced manufacturing that benefits from skilled labor and proximity to innovation centers, rather than simply replicating low-cost production.
美国制造业的高附加值聚焦：
美国经济越来越向高附加值制造业、研发和服务业转型。尽管存在一定的生产回流，然而这种回流通常集中在能够受益于熟练劳动力和创新中心地理优势的先进制造业，而不仅仅是复制低成本生产。
While trade tensions and tariffs have prompted some companies to consider diversifying their supply chains, the fundamental economic advantages of China's manufacturing ecosystem still hold for many.
地缘政治和贸易因素：
尽管贸易紧张局势和关税政策促使一些公司考虑多元化其供应链，但中国制造生态系统的基本经济优势仍然对许多企业具有吸引力。
总结： 尽管中国工资上涨削弱了其成本优势，但选择在哪里制造是一个复杂的决策，涉及多个因素，不仅仅是劳动力成本。中国成熟的供应链、规模、基础设施以及其他成本考虑，使其依然对许多制造商具有吸引力。生产回流到美国的趋势在某些行业中正在发生，但这是一个逐步的过程，受到多种经济和战略因素的影响。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
In capitalist economics, for goods that cannot be strongly differentiated by quality or brand, there is no difference between having a product $5 cheaper, and having a product $10 cheaper.
Cheapest wins.
在资本主义经济中，对于那些质量或品牌无法明显区分的商品来说，产品便宜5美元和便宜10美元没有区别。最便宜的赢。