特朗普是在故意摧毁美国经济吗？这个国家在10年或20年内能恢复过来吗？
Is Trump destroying the US economy on purpose? Could the country bounce back in 10 or 20 years?
译文简介
网友：这肯定是故意的。自从特朗普上任以来，我们已经损失了接近10万亿美元的市场市值。没有像COVID或911这样的“黑天鹅”事件来解释这一切，所以这一定是故意的。问题是为什么？
正文翻译
Guy With A Tie
It must be intentional. We’re approaching $10 TRILLION in lost market cap since Trump took office. There’s no “black swan” event like COVID or 9/11 to explain this, so it must be intentional. The question is why?
这肯定是故意的。自从特朗普上任以来，我们已经损失了接近10万亿美元的市场市值。没有像COVID或911这样的“黑天鹅”事件来解释这一切，所以这一定是故意的。问题是为什么？
It must be intentional. We’re approaching $10 TRILLION in lost market cap since Trump took office. There’s no “black swan” event like COVID or 9/11 to explain this, so it must be intentional. The question is why?
这肯定是故意的。自从特朗普上任以来，我们已经损失了接近10万亿美元的市场市值。没有像COVID或911这样的“黑天鹅”事件来解释这一切，所以这一定是故意的。问题是为什么？
The best I can come up with is that Trump is trying to inflate our way out of debt. This gets into boring fiscal policy, but generally speaking it means a country uses inflation (rising prices across the economy) to reduce the real value of its debt. When prices go up, the money a government owes stays the same in number (nominal debt), but it's worth less in today's terms.
我能想到的最好解释是，特朗普试图通过通货膨胀来解决我们的债务问题。这涉及到枯燥的财政政策，但一般来说，这意味着一个国家通过通货膨胀（整个经济中的物价上涨）来减少其债务的实际价值。当物价上涨时，政府欠的钱数量保持不变（名义债务），但按照今天的标准，它的价值就降低了。
我能想到的最好解释是，特朗普试图通过通货膨胀来解决我们的债务问题。这涉及到枯燥的财政政策，但一般来说，这意味着一个国家通过通货膨胀（整个经济中的物价上涨）来减少其债务的实际价值。当物价上涨时，政府欠的钱数量保持不变（名义债务），但按照今天的标准，它的价值就降低了。
For example, say the government borrows $1,000 money today and promises to pay back $1,200 in ten years. That payback figure of $1,200 stays the same regardless of inflation, so in ten years that $1,200 would only be worth about $700 in today’s money. If wages and tax income rise with inflation, it's easier for the government to pay off what it owes. The big danger is that this strategy can hurt people’s savings and make everyday goods more expensive.
举个例子，假设政府今天借了1000美元，并承诺在十年内还回1200美元。无论通货膨胀如何变化，这1200美元的偿还数额都保持不变，所以十年后，这1200美元在今天的货币价值只相当于约700美元。如果工资和税收收入随着通货膨胀上升，政府更容易偿还其债务。大风险是，这种策略可能会伤害人们的储蓄，并让日常商品变得更贵。
举个例子，假设政府今天借了1000美元，并承诺在十年内还回1200美元。无论通货膨胀如何变化，这1200美元的偿还数额都保持不变，所以十年后，这1200美元在今天的货币价值只相当于约700美元。如果工资和税收收入随着通货膨胀上升，政府更容易偿还其债务。大风险是，这种策略可能会伤害人们的储蓄，并让日常商品变得更贵。
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Of course he is. The entire game plan of the Republicans is to destroy everything, then pick up the pieces at rock bottom prices. As their favorite saying goes, never let a crisis go to waste.
当然他是。共和党的整个计划就是摧毁一切，然后以极低的价格捡起碎片。正如他们最喜欢的说法，“永远不要让危机浪费掉“。
剩下的东西就会完全私有化，这样有钱有权的人就可以永远吸取公共资源，同时剥夺普通人所有的保障，让你们为了低薪、仅能勉强维生的工作而乞求，且没有未来。退休？忘了吧，你会工作到死，就像过去的好日子一样。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
特朗普和共和党并不是为我们工作。他们为富人和有权势的人工作。别以为他们会为普通美国人做任何事情，除了在选举时承诺给你们一切，然后忘掉你们并把责任推给民主党。
To all Trump supporters, you voted for this, but all the rest of us suffer from your dillusional view of the world. Wake TF up!
我们现在看到的是美国民主被盗贼政府和无能政府摧毁。如果你不知道什么是“无能政府”，它是由无能和不道德的人管理的政府。看看特朗普和共和党任命到特朗普内阁的那些极度无能和不合格的人。他们一个个都完全无能。
对所有特朗普的支持者来说，你们投票支持了这个，但我们其余的人却因你们对世界的幻想视角而受苦。醒醒吧！
Trump believes himself a genius, and there are enough Americans to get him elected as president.
Trump has a history of destruction, including his business empire, marriages, and worst president, declared my political scientists.
Also, now, most sued president. Only president, impeached two times.
That’s now his legacy in Americano history.
He replaced Nixon and Buchanan.
特朗普认为自己是天才，且有足够的美国人支持他当选总统。 特朗普有一段破坏的历史，包括他的商业帝国、婚姻，以及政治学者们所称的最差总统。 而现在，他是被起诉最多的总统。唯一一位被弹劾两次的总统。 这就是他在美国历史中的遗产。 他取代了尼克松和布坎南。
these tariffs and other weird economic policies?
Trump bankrupted all his own companies.
Trump is a failure in everything, including his business bankruptcies and failed marriages.
Trump became the “most sued president,” and that’s now his legacy.
It’s the first time in our countries history, all our Allie’s, despise Trump.
Our generals, and those in government, don’t trust Trump. Trump is the only president, impeached two times.
这些关税和其他奇怪的经济政策？ 特朗普让自己所有的公司都破产了。 特朗普在一切方面都是个失败者，包括他的商业破产和失败的婚姻。 特朗普成为了“最被起诉的总统”，这就是他的遗产。 这是我们国家历史上第一次，所有的盟友都鄙视特朗普。 我们的将军们，以及政府中的人们，不要信任特朗普。特朗普是唯一一位被弹劾两次的总统。
Yes he is purposely trying to take everything from the American people so he can be dictator for life. He is more dangerous than Adolph Hitler. Narcissist lying moron convicted felon
是的，他故意想从美国人民手中夺走一切，这样他就能成为终身DC者。他比阿道夫·希特勒更危险。自恋、撒谎、愚蠢的重罪犯。
The problem is that Trump's idea of the economy is his bank account. He does not care about the economy as you probably understand the economy. It is not that he is purposely trying to destroy the economy. He is completely indifferent to it.
问题是，特朗普对经济的理解就是他的银行账户。他并不关心你可能理解的经济。并不是说他故意要摧毁经济，他对经济完全漠不关心。
It could take several years of good governance to recover somewhat from the chaos he has already created. That’s if he is ousted right now. But it will take many years for the trust of the world to recover.
The US Constitution has served the nation well. It has failed now and needs amendment to ensure that no maniac can ever be entrusted with the power to rule alone.
可能需要几年良好的治理才能在某种程度上从他已经造成的混乱中恢复过来。如果他现在被赶下台的话。但世界的信任恢复将需要很多年。
美国宪法曾经很好地服务于国家，但现在它已经失败，必须进行修订，以确保永远不会让一个疯子掌握单独的统治权力。
The US economy is on a permanent decline. The 2nd Great Depression will eventually and, but the United States of American is a has been, like Greece, Rome, Spain, France, England, and Germany.
美国经济正在永久衰退。第二次大萧条最终会到来，但美国就像古希腊、古罗马、西班牙、法国、英国和德国一样，已成过去。
Are you sure this is the limit of intelligent question you can muster?
But wait — you’re not actually talking about how Biden destroyed the economy so completely that business STILL struggle to get enough workplace engagement to run at pre-Biden levels.
Trump is making changes, and the economy doesn’t like changes. At least in the short-term.
To maintain any facade of intelligence, you need a question that pierces the veil of the most shallowest and convenient representation of the short-term.
你确定这是你能提出的最聪明的问题吗？
但等等——你并没有讨论拜登是如何完全摧毁经济，导致企业仍然难以让员工回到拜登之前的工作水平。
特朗普正在做出改变，而经济并不喜欢变化，至少在短期内是这样。
为了保持一点智慧，你需要一个能够穿透表面、避免最肤浅和最方便的短期表现的问题。
What has Trump actually destroyed though? The stock market is taking a beating. It’s taking a beating not simply because of Trump, but because it was extremely overvalued to begin with. Some stock prices have been over 100 times their actual company earnings and revenue. On the ground, no assets have been destroyed or shut down. Business is still going on. So far the only people who have been detrimentally affected are the government employees that doge fired. Investors and fund managers, and by extension their clients, are crying that their highly overvalued stocks which they invested in (which they shouldn’t have anyway, because it was overvalued), have now tanked.
那么特朗普究竟破坏了什么呢？股市正在遭受重创。这不仅仅是因为特朗普，而是因为股市本身在一开始就被严重高估了。有些股票的价格是其公司实际盈利和收入的100倍以上。在实际层面上，没有资产被摧毁或关闭。商业依然在继续。目前唯一受到不利影响的是那些被doge解雇的政府员工。投资者和基金经理，以及他们的客户，正在抱怨他们投资的那些被严重高估的股票（他们本不该投资这些股票，因为它们被高估了）现在暴跌了。
所以特朗普并没有摧毁经济。实际上，经济本身一直是被人为抬高的，而特朗普的行动正在侵蚀这些虚假的价值。对美国人来说，令人担忧的是，尽管经济有所减少，但它仍然可能会进一步减少。美国股市依然高估。过去你的政治家们一直吹嘘美国是世界上最大经济体，但美元的购买力却一直很低，过去十年普通美国人无法负担体面的生活。这是因为经济被人为制造得看起来很强大，通过股票价格操控和股票回购。
那么它会“反弹”吗？实际上，它从来没有强大到能反弹的程度。至少在现实中是这样的。那么经济会在现实中增长吗？这仍然有待观察，但很可能是的，最终它会增长。如果特朗普现在停止行动，将会使美元贬值到更现实的水平。物价将会飙升，美国人发现自己无法再负担以前应该负担不起的进口商品。尽管消费者会哭泣，但这将促使本地商业创新和生产。企业家和发明家将再次变得重要。
特朗普确实犯了很多错误，且他的方式可以说是荒唐至极。但美国人即将意识到的更令人震惊的现实是，他们的经济和价值有多么膨胀。他们将很快意识到自己实际上是多么渺小，而中国、欧洲，甚至像印度这样的国家究竟有多强大。特朗普及其追随者传播着这个世界不公平、剥夺美国的叙事。但事实上并没有什么不公平。许多美国商品根本不具备竞争力，且价格过高，和同类商品相比毫无优势。
美国的政治家们一直在经营一个庞氏骗局，一个假象，一直在把问题推给未来。无论特朗普是有意还是无意，他将结束这个庞氏骗局。
No. Trump is doing exactly what the past presidents should have done. Don’t let a wavering stock market give you the jitters. It’s a poor indication of the economy, at least short term.
There are two groups of people screaming about Trump and Elon cutting the waste - the people that were receiving the waste, and the useful idiots they round up to help them protest.
不，特朗普正在做的是过去总统应该做的事情。不要让波动的股市让你感到不安。至少短期内，股市是经济的一个糟糕指标。
有两类人正在大声抱怨特朗普和埃隆裁剪浪费——那些曾经接受浪费的人，以及那些被他们收买的愚蠢帮凶来帮助抗议。
如果特朗普成功，我们的经济将像从未有过的那样繁荣。记得在50年代和60年代时，只需要一个人就能赚足够的钱买房子、买车、支付教育费用、去度假并且为退休储蓄。你有没有想过为什么这种情况发生了变化？特朗普将会解决这个问题。享受这段旅程吧。
He is trying to force nations and industries to bow to him. He will “allow” them to swear loyalty to him and he will drop the tariffs. It seems that Columbia University caved, over funding and is now nothing more than a propaganda college, unable to allow students to think, protest and support any cause Donald doesn’t support. This is how he will gain control over countries as well, although I doubt it will work.
他正在试图迫使国家和行业向他低头。他将“允许”他们宣誓效忠于他，然后他会取消关税。似乎哥伦比亚大学屈服了，因资金问题，现在成了一个宣传学校，不能让学生自由思考、抗议或支持任何特朗普不支持的事业。这就是他将如何控制国家的方式，尽管我怀疑这是否能够奏效。
trump is purposefully destroying the American economy for his master putin and because trump and the Republicans hate America and it's people they are all criminals and pedophiles
特朗普故意破坏美国经济，为了他的主子普京，因为特朗普和共和党人憎恨美国及其人民，他们全都是罪犯和恋童癖。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
There are several aspects to this: his “blow up the administrative state” via slashing of the public services, turning over the state to the polluters, doing the bidding of a dying industry (fossil fuels), blowing up the Pax Americana, and his whacko tariffs.
这其中有几个方面：他通过削减公共服务来“摧毁行政国家”，将国家交给污染者，听命于一个衰退中的行业（化石燃料），破坏“美洲霸权”，以及他的荒唐关税政策。
考虑到过去30年世界生产通过长供应链的整合，他的关税政策非常具有破坏性和损害性。特朗普似乎在采取一种黑帮头目式的策略，他希望各国前来向他提供让步，以便降低关税。考虑到美国市场的规模，他将市场准入作为一种手段来施压。
但这意味着他并不真正把某一国的关税作为长期战略。投资者如果没有稳定的市场框架保障，是不会投资的，尤其是需要足够时间来确保他们的投资能够获得回报。
The next administration in 2028 will have to sort this all out.
因此，今年晚些时候很可能会出现一次严重的衰退。特朗普已经承认“会有痛苦”，但他声称一切会在之后变得更好——大概是在他成功地从其他国家索取所需的让步之后。但在这一点上，他简直是疯狂的。
2028年下一届政府将不得不解决这一切问题。
it is impossible to know another person’s intentions. But there is no way he would destroy the Us economy on purpose. He has nothing to gain from that and everything to lose, both politically and personally. He THINKS that what he is doing will have a good end game.
我们无法知道另一个人的意图。但他绝不会故意摧毁美国经济。他没有从中获益的理由，反而会在政治和个人上失去一切。他认为自己正在做的事情会有一个好的结果。
He has looked at the imbalanced trade partnerships that the US has put up with over the years (probably because we are the wealthiest nation in the world and we are only minimally hurt by them) and decided that he wants to negotiate better trade deals.
考虑到几乎所有经济学家（包括我自己）都相信自由贸易的价值，而且几乎所有经济学家都认为关税通常是自由贸易的障碍，并且考虑到总统有机会接触到一些世界上最优秀的经济学家，我的猜测是：
他看到了美国多年来所容忍的不平衡贸易伙伴关系（可能是因为我们是世界上最富有的国家，且这些不平衡对我们影响较小），并决定他想要谈判更好的贸易协议。
Trump also knows that the other nations need our dollars more than we need their goods, since we consume more goods than anyone else in the world. So he is probably trying to be a “hard negotiator.”
举个例子，德国对美国汽车征收10%的关税，而美国对德国汽车的关税为2.5%。自1970年代以来，美国进口了许多来自日本的汽车，而日本从未进口超过几辆美国汽车。将这些不平衡调整过来是有道理的。
特朗普还知道，其他国家比我们更需要美元，因为我们消费的商品比世界上任何其他国家都多。所以他可能在尝试做一个“强硬的谈判者”。
If the end of this is better trade arrangements, he will look like a genius. If this trade war leads to a global recession (and it could) then he will be the new Herbert Hoover.
然而，很难理解特朗普为什么宣布广泛的关税措施，甚至对我们的最亲密盟友（以及企鹅岛）也开征关税。
如果这一切最终能带来更好的贸易安排，他将显得像个天才。如果这场贸易战导致全球经济衰退（而且它有可能导致），那么他将成为新的Herbert Hoover。
No. He’s a delusional psychopath, who never understood anything in life.
His life history are all failures.
Trump was the first president impeached two times.
不，他是一个妄想的精神病患者，根本不理解生活中的任何事情。
他的生活史充满了失败。
特朗普是第一位两次被弹劾的总统。
His history is filled with his failures; bankruptcies, divorces and thousands of lawsuits.
Political scientists have already ranked him worst president.
Mental health professionals have written hundreds of articles and books on Trump’s mental illness; at least, 4,000 titles.
The first best seller: The dangerous case of Donald Trump, written by 37 mental health professionals.
美国的无知应该为此负责。
他的历史充满了失败；破产、离婚和成千上万的诉讼。
政治学家们已经将他评为最差的总统。
心理健康专业人士写了成百上千篇关于特朗普精神疾病的文章和书籍；至少有4000本书。
第一本畅销书：《特朗普的危险面貌》，由37位心理健康专家共同撰写。
It’s now became true!
Our stock market is taking a nose dive!
Many jobs and income will be lost.
This will turn out to be the worst recession since 2008.
最新的警告：特朗普在2024年对世界构成最大威胁。
这现在已经变成了现实！
我们的股市正在急剧下跌！
许多工作和收入将会丧失。
这将成为自2008年以来最糟糕的衰退。