QA：过去，类似的高关税曾为美国带来繁荣。现在，美国能通过提高关税来创造同样的繁荣吗？“历史证明，对加剧萧条特别有效”
Similar high tariffs have proved prosperous for the US in the past. Can the US create the same prosperity with higher tariffs?
译文简介
<<讽刺警告>> 是的，过去所有的高关税确实帮助了美国人<<讽刺停止>>
正文翻译
Similar high tariffs have proved prosperous for the US in the past. Can the US create the same prosperity with higher tariffs?
过去，类似的高关税曾为美国带来繁荣。现在，美国能通过提高关税来创造同样的繁荣吗？
过去，类似的高关税曾为美国带来繁荣。现在，美国能通过提高关税来创造同样的繁荣吗？
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From the civil war to World War 2, US had a high tariff wall. This done because US was a developing country in the 19th century and was protecting its native industry against lower cost competition from Europe. Back then the large size of the USA and its unified open market meant companies could operate on comparatively higher economies of scale. But today economies of scale are much larger due to the globalization of the economy since the last capitalist crisis in the 1970s. Altho only about 24 percent of US GDP is based on trade, it would still be a hugely damaging result to try for complete autarky — which seems the logical result of Trump’s tariffs
He is making the mistake Hoover made in 1930 with the Smoot-Hawley tariff wall. It contracted world trade — as Trump’s tariffs will do — and thus made the depression worse.
Trump touts the Gilded Age of the 1890s with its tariff wall. He fails to keep in mind there was another Great Depression in the 1890s. My great grandparents’ farm was seized by the banks.
The 1920s boom did occur with a fairly high tariff, but it was a boom grounded in sand — real estate speculation, oil speculation, stock speculation. And when Hoover tried to deal with the 1929 crash with the Smoot Hawley tariff, the results were disastrous.
从内战到第二次世界大战，美国一直都设有高关税壁垒。之所以这样做，是因为美国在 19 世纪是一个发展中国家，需要保护其本土产业免受来自欧洲的低成本竞争。
当时，美国规模庞大，市场统一开放，这意味着公司可以以相对较高的规模经济进行运营。
但如今，由于自 20 世纪 70 年代上次资本主义危机以来的经济全球化，规模经济的规模变得非常大。
虽然美国 GDP 中只有约 24% 是基于贸易的，但试图完全自给自足仍将是一个极具破坏性的结果——这似乎是特朗普关税的合理结果。
他正在犯胡佛在 1930 年犯下的错误，即斯穆特霍利关税壁垒。它收缩了世界贸易——就像特朗普的关税一样——从而使大萧条变得更加严重。
特朗普吹捧 19 世纪 90 年代的镀金时代，称其为关税壁垒。他没有记住 19 世纪 90 年代还发生了一场大萧条。就是那时，我曾祖父母的农场被银行没收了。
20 世纪 20 年代的繁荣确实伴随着相当高的关税，但那是一种以沙子为基础的繁荣——房地产投机、石油投机、股票投机。当胡佛试图用斯穆特霍利关税来应对 1929 年的危机时，结果是灾难性的。
You know, I am sick of maga. Yes… tariffs will make us all rich. Everything is going to be fucking fantastic
你知道的，我厌倦了MAGA。是的……关税会让我们所有人都变得富有。一切都会变得非常棒。
A lot of farmers banded together to keep the banks from taking the farms. The farmer whose farm was up for auction was the only one allowed to bid on his farm at auction. The farmers kept all the other bidders away
那时，许多农民联合起来阻止银行接管农场。农场被拍卖的农民，是唯一被允许在拍卖会上竞标其农场的人。农民们把其他所有竞标者都拦在门外面。
Seriously? “Similar high tariffs have proved prosperous”. “The same prosperity”>
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930 was supposed to Make America Great Again (TM) by limiting imports.
The consequences were utterly predictable to anyone: Other countries retaliated with their own tariffs, international trade was devastated, and the Great Depression became even Greater.
The Smoot-Hawley tariff on Canadian eggs is still a textbook case of protectionist folly.
The US imposed a tariff of 10 cents per dozen on Canadian eggs. A lot of money in those days. What did Canada do? Canada imposed the same tariff on US eggs.
Here’s the problem. In 1929, the trade in eggs was overwhelming to the benefit of the US
Canadian egg exports to the US in 1929 – 13,000 dozen. By 1932, exports had dropped to 8,000 dozen. A win for the US, right?
Ah ... WRONG: US exports to Canada in 1929 – nearly 1 million dozen eggs. In 1932, thanks to Smoot-Hawley, US egg exports to Canada had dropped to less than 10,000 dozen.
So American farmers were the big losers on that one.
yeah all those past high tariffs really helped Americans
真的吗？
“类似的高关税曾为美国带来繁荣”。“同样的繁荣”。
1930 年的斯穆特霍利关税本应通过限制进口让美国再次伟大
任何人都可以完全预见到其后果：其他国家以自己的关税进行报复，国际贸易遭到破坏，大萧条进一步加剧。
斯穆特霍利对加拿大的鸡蛋征收关税，到现在仍然是保护主义愚蠢行为的典型案例。
美国对加拿大鸡蛋征收每打 10 美分的关税。这在当时是一大笔钱。
加拿大做了什么？加拿大对美国鸡蛋征收了同样的关税。
这就是问题所在。
1929 年，鸡蛋贸易势不可挡，美国从中受益匪浅。
1929 年加拿大鸡蛋对美国的出口量为 13,000 打。到 1932 年，出口量下降到 8,000 打。美国赢了，对吧？
啊……错了：1929 年美国对加拿大的出口量——近 100 万打鸡蛋。1932 年，由于斯穆特霍利关税法案，美国对加拿大的鸡蛋出口量下降到不到 1 万打。
所以美国农民是最大的输家。
是的，过去所有的高关税确实帮助了美国人
The USA could always import Penguin Eggs from Heard Island in the Antarctic but they’ll have to pay the Penguins the 10% tarriff
美国可以随时从南极洲的赫德岛进口企鹅蛋，但他们必须向企鹅支付 10% 的关税
And don’t forget soybean farming last time.
还有，别忘记上次的大豆事件。
Well the (used to be), GOP is advising we should all buys stocks while they are tanking.
嗯，（过去）共和党建议我们都应该在股票下跌时买入。
And now they want our eggs.
还有，现在他们想要我们的鸡蛋了。
States need money. So they levy taxes. In the days of yore, accounting was difficult, as a lot of the economy did not use money. So the amount of tax you had to pay depended on things easily seen and measured. Like the size of your house, goods you bring to a market, the land you own, your existence.
The good thing about tariffs was that people transporting goods were usually pretty rich, and you could estimate the money they owned by looking at some carts or a ship, you didn't have to check their books.
There are two bad things about tariffs. The first is that it stifles trade. Which was particularly bad in a fragmented region like Germany.
国家需要钱。所以他们征税。在过去，会计工作很困难，因为经济的很多方面都不使用货币交易。所以你必须缴纳的税款取决于容易看到和衡量的事物。比如你房子的大小、你带到市场的商品、你拥有的土地、你实际拥有的东西。
关税的好处是，运输货物的人通常都很富有，你可以通过查看一些手推车或船只来估计他们拥有的钱，而不必检查他们的账簿。
关税有两个坏处。第一，它扼杀了贸易。这在德国这样一个分裂的地区尤其糟糕。
Which why in 1834 the “Norddeutscher Zollverein” was founded, probably the first multinational free trade agreement. The economic advantages were so huge that even when in 1866 Bavaria sided with Austria in the war against Prussia, the trade agreements were not cancelled.
The Zollverein was one of the main reasons Germany turned from a poor backwater into an industrial power house within 50 years.
“我没什么可申报的。前面的货物已经离开了你的国家，后面的货物还没有进入。”
这就是为什么 1834 年成立了“北德意志关税同盟”的原因，这可能是第一个跨国自由贸易协定。经济优势如此巨大，以至于即使在 1866 年巴伐利亚在与普鲁士的战争中站在了奥地利一边，贸易协定也没有被取消。
关税同盟是德国在 50 年内从贫穷的穷乡僻壤变成工业强国的主要原因之一。
So why do we still have tariffs? There is a prisoner's dilemma involved. If the import of eggs is taxed, both the importing and the exporting state lose. But producers of eggs only serving the local market profit. You do not harass your government about a measure that would save everyone a very small amount of money. But you do harass the government about a measure that essentially makes everyone pay a little money to a very small group you belong to. Because for you these small amounts add up to a considerable part of your income. So today tariffs are an indicator of cronyism. And cronyism is difficult to destroy if their proponents are as influential as e.g. agriculture.
另一个问题是关税具有很强的周期性。贸易受经济形势的影响特别大。特别是在战争时期，当国家最需要钱的时候，国家因为关税带来的收入就会急剧下降。这就是为什么国家从关税转向其他更稳定的收入来源的原因。
那么为什么我们仍然有关税呢？这涉及到囚徒困境。如果对鸡蛋的进口征税，进口国和出口国都会蒙受损失。但只服务于当地市场的鸡蛋生产商却能获利。
如果有一项措施，可以让每个人都节省一小笔钱，你不会为此去骚扰你的政府。
但如果有一项措施，它会让每个人都多支付一小笔钱，你就会为此去骚扰政府。因为对你来说，这些小钱加起来是你收入的很大一部分。
所以今天的关税是裙带关系的指标。如果裙带关系的支持者像农业一样有影响力，那么裙带关系就很难被消除。
There have been three depressions in the USA, two in the 1800’s and the Great Depression that started in 1929, they all have one thing in common, they were preceded by tariffs. Rather strangely Trump referred to The Great Depression in his speech introducing his tariffs, maybe he want’s another depression, he’s certainly going about it the right way.
美国经历过三次大萧条，两次发生在 19 世纪，还有一次大萧条始于 1929 年，它们都有一个共同点，那就是之前都征收了关税。
奇怪的是，特朗普在介绍关税的演讲中提到了大萧条，也许他想要另一次大萧条，他肯定是在用正确的方式应对。
I’m not crazy about what Trump is doing, but your comment ignores the fact that before the Great Depression the United States was the largest EXPORTER of goods, and today we are the largest IMPORTER of goods. And there are certain industries that a country must retain, in order to remain free from foreign coercion. We simply cannot allow ourselves to be utterly dependent upon Red China, for instance. I don’t understand the stance on Canada, but I at least partially agree with some of the issues Trump is attempting to address.
我并不赞同特朗普的做法，但你的评论忽略了一个事实：在那些大萧条时期，美国是最大的商品出口国，而今天我们是最大的商品进口国。
为了免受外国胁迫，一个国家必须保留某些行业。
例如，我们不能让自己完全依赖红色中国。
我不理解特朗普对加拿大的立场，但我至少部分同意特朗普试图解决的一些问题。
The US is also currently the second largest exporter of goods.
美国目前也是第二大商品出口国。
But we're in luck, our strong Leader will fix it all for us! The Leader is always right! Greet the Leader!
但我们很幸运，我们强大的领导者会为我们解决所有问题！领导者永远是对的！向领导者致敬！狗头。
When the EU retaliates I think it will go for the American tech and services industry. That will hurt the US far more than going after American manufacturing!
我认为，欧盟报复时会瞄准美国的科技和服务业。这对美国的伤害远大于瞄准美国的制造业！
Strange, I thought that by having strong trade with many countries stability would be created. Businesses/economies theive when a level of stability is achieved long term. Trump is causing instability and causing Allie’s to not twist and no longer buy from the U.S. nothing good can come of this.
奇怪的是，我以为通过与许多国家进行强大的贸易可以创造稳定。当长期实现一定程度的稳定时，企业/经济就会受益。特朗普正在造成不稳定，导致盟友不再从美国购买商品，这不会带来任何好处。
So tariffs will make Trump richer but America poorer.
因此，关税将使特朗普变得更富有，但美国变得更贫穷。
A very sound economic argument against tariffs.
这是一个反对关税的非常合理的经济论点。
Out here in consensus reality, similar high tariffs have proved disastrous for the US in the past.
The US can certainly create the same sort of disaster with higher tariffs.
在普遍的现实中，类似的高关税在过去已经给美国带来了灾难。
美国提高关税肯定会造成同样的灾难。
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act did not cause the Great Depression. However, it did worsen conditions during that time. The Act increased tariffs, which further stressed struggling nations—including those in debt to the U.S.—and caused other nations to retaliate by imposing their own tariffs.
《斯穆特霍利关税法》并未导致大萧条。然而，它确实恶化了当时的情况。该法案提高了关税，这进一步加重了陷入困境的国家（包括欠美国债务的国家）的压力，并导致其他国家通过征收关税进行报复。
Adam Smith wrote “the Wealth of Nations” 117 days before the brilliant thinking liberal founding fathers of the USA made the Declaration of Independance on July 4th 1776. His idea and vision was clear : Nations should specialize in what they produce best (what we now call comparative advantage), and trade for the rest. Tariffs (taxes on imports) mess with that natural flow by protecting inefficient industries.
Entire libraries have been written about the subject, and universities have taught courses on it for centuries.
Now one madman thinks he's smarter than all of history. With an algorithm no better than rolling dice, he's imposing tariffs that fly in the face of centuries of hard-won economic wisdom. It's a joke. It's a shame.
亚当·斯密，美国杰出的自由主义开国元勋，他在1776年7月4日，发表《独立宣言》前的117天，写下了《国富论》。
他的想法和愿景是明确的：各国应该专注于他们最擅长的产品（我们现在称之为比较优势），并为其他产品进行贸易。
关税（进口税）保护的是低效产业，扰乱了这种自然流动。
整个图书馆到处都是关于这个主题的文章，大学也教授了几个世纪这方面的课程。
现在，一个疯子认为他比历史上任何人都聪明。凭借一种比掷骰子好不了多少的算法，他要征收的关税，与几个世纪来之不易的经济智慧做背道而驰的事情。
这是个笑话。真是遗憾。
“in the past” is a period that’s undefined. Please explain what time period you mean.
“过去” 是一个未定义的时间段。请解释一下你指的是哪个时间段。
I would suggest that tariffs work with cottage industries, manufacturing that can be taken up or put down with minimal time or financial investment.
So in some minor ways, like growing apples, tariffs may still, just about, work.
But once manufacturing required significant time, money and training investment, tariffs don’t work. So not so effective in steel manufacturing for instance.
我认为关税适用于家庭手工业，就是那些可以用最少的时间、最少的金钱就可以进行投资并建立或停止的小制造业。
因此，在某些小领域，比如种植苹果，关税可能仍然有效。
但是，一旦涉及到那些需要大量的时间、金钱和培训投资的大制造业，关税就不起作用了。例如，在钢铁制造业中效果就不是那么好。
Both the depressions in the US were caused by imposing tariffs, but tRump thinks his tariffs will make the US prosperous, he’s am absolute idiot and the US population is going to pay the price for his idiocy.
美国的两次经济萧条都是由征收关税引起的，但特朗普认为他的关税会让美国繁荣，他是个十足的白痴，美国人民将为他的愚蠢付出代价。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
The Economist, hardly a left-wing publication, which over the last few months was guardedly optimistic about Trump’s second term, has now lost patience with him. A few quotes from this week’s editorial about Trump’s justification of his tariffs, under the title Ruination Day:
“complete drivel”
“the most profound, harmful and unnecessary economic error in the modern era”
“mindless vandalism”
“utterly deluded”
“flat-out nonsense”
“Insisting on balanced trade with every trading partner individually is bonkers”
“Mr Trump’s grasp of the technicalities was pathetic”
“catalogue of foolishness”
All that and more on one page.
《经济学人》绝不是左翼刊物，在过去几个月里，它对特朗普的第二任期持谨慎乐观的态度，但现在却对他失去了耐心。
本周的社论以《毁灭日》为题，对特朗普关税的评价的几句话如下：
“一派胡言”
“现代史上最深刻、最有害、最不必要的经济错误”
“盲目的破坏”
“完全是自欺欺人”
“彻头彻尾的胡说”
“坚持与每个贸易伙伴进行平衡贸易是疯了”
“特朗普对技术细节的掌握太差劲了”
“愚蠢至极”
所有这些，甚至更多，都写在了这一页上。
Can you give me a specific instance where tariffs have proved prosperous for the US?
I know that we put a heavy tariff on Canadian soft wood, and have for decades, to protect the US logging industry.
But that is about the only one I can think of.
The last big round of tariffs happened in the midst of the Great depression and were highly effective at prolonging and deepening the Great Depression.
So could you educate me and give me an example of what tariffs you are talking about?
您能举一个关税给美国带来好处的具体例子吗？
我知道，为了保护美国伐木业，我们对加拿大软木征收了高额关税，而且已经实施了几十年。
但我能想到的只有这个例子。
上一轮大规模关税发生在大萧条期间，对延长和加深大萧条非常有效。
您能给我举个例子，说明您说的关税是什么吗？
You really are as stupid as your cult leader, Comrade Krasnov. You also had a very very poor education. When someone is as stupid are you clearly are it is usually best not make comments to avoid looking like such an idiot. You really need to brush up your knowledge of the 1929 depression - the U.S. is heading exactly in that direction now. Krasnov is a pathological liar, and you are so stupid that you simply believe his lies. Tariffs will cause huge economic damage, exactly as they did in the 1929 depression. This is easy to verify. A simple Google search would do it. Stop believing his lies. The tariffs will not lead to great prosperity. Why do you think Wall Street is collapsing.
I am sorry your parents and teachers failed to provide you with an acceptable education.
译注：2月21日,英国《镜报》刊文,指控特朗普在1987年被苏联克格勃招募,代号“克拉斯诺夫”。
你真的和你的邪教领袖克拉斯诺夫同志一样愚蠢。你的教育水平也很差。
当有人和你一样愚蠢时，最好不要发表评论，以免看起来像个白痴。
你真的需要复习一下关于 1929 年大萧条的知识——美国现在正朝着那个方向发展。
克拉斯诺夫是个病态的骗子，你太愚蠢了，竟然相信他的谎言。
关税将造成巨大的经济损失，就像 1929 年的大萧条时一样。这很容易验证。一个简单的谷歌搜索就可以做到。别再相信他的谎言了。关税不会带来巨大的繁荣。你认为华尔街为什么会崩溃。我很遗憾你的父母和老师未能为你提供可接受的教育。
Do you know why the depression in the 1930s was called the “Great Depression”? Because it was being compared to all the depressions that came before it. Depressions used to be a common occurrence in the 19th century (1800s). There are many arguments why they happened then and not since WW2, but one common feature: depressions only happened when tariffs were high. So that might be worth considering.
你知道为什么 1930 年的萧条被称为“大萧条”吗？
因为它被拿来与之前的所有萧条作比较，它非常大。
萧条在 19 世纪（1800 年代）很常见。
有很多理由可以解释为什么它们在当时发生，而不是在二战后发生，但有一个共同点：萧条只发生在关税高的时候。
所以这可能是值得思考的。