印度会成为经济超级大国吗？| 商业观察
Will India become an economic superpower? | Business Beyond
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网友：印度现在是世界上人口最多的国家，也是第五大经济体，预计到2030年将成为仅次于中国和美国的第三大经济体。印度拥有庞大的年轻人口，GDP增速超过其他十大经济体。在全球秩序快速变化的背景下，其地缘政治重要性也在不断提升。
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印度会成为经济超级大国吗？| 商业观察
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India now has ambitions to become a global economic superpower. But there are serious question marks. It remains an extremely poor country, with major inequalities from female labor force participation to education. Other issues such as ethnic tensions, democratic decline and environmental damage are fraying the fabric of the Indian Republic.
In this episode of Business Beyond, we ask if India can seize its moment.
印度现在是世界上人口最多的国家，也是第五大经济体，预计到2030年将成为仅次于中国和美国的第三大经济体。印度拥有庞大的年轻人口，GDP增速超过其他十大经济体。在全球秩序快速变化的背景下，其地缘政治重要性也在不断提升。
印度怀有成为全球经济超级大国的雄心，但它面临严峻的挑战。它仍然是个极度贫困的国家，从女性劳动参与到教育机会都存在严重的不平等，种族矛盾、民主倒退和环境破坏等问题正在撕裂这个国家的社会结构。
本期《商业观察》将探讨印度能否抓住这一历史机遇。
This is great news. As an IT dude in the US I work with a lot of Indian people. Always a pleasure to work with. Solid personalities and morals. Really awesome culture and people.
这是个好消息。作为在美国IT行业工作的从业者，我经常与印度同事合作。他们总是令人愉快的合作伙伴，性格坚毅、道德感强。这个国家的文化和人民确实很棒。
I am an Indian living in Germany, India is not perfect but my people and my government is trying its best to be better. With the right leadership and vision we can achieve the 5 trillion dollars economy dream and make it a reality.
我是在德国生活的印度人。虽然印度并不完美，但我的同胞和政府都在努力改进。只要有正确的领导力和愿景，我们就能实现5万亿美元经济体的目标。
Some group of economists have projected that both the U.S and parts of Europe could slip into a recession for a portion of 2023. A global recession, define as a contraction in annual global per capita income, is more rare because china and emerging markets often grow faster than more developed economies. Essentially the world economy is considered to be in recession if economic growth falls behind population growth.
一些经济学家预测，2023年美国及部分欧洲国家可能陷入衰退。全球衰退通常定义为全球人均收入下降，这种情况较为罕见，因为中国和新兴市场往往比发达经济体增长更快。基本上，当经济增长落后于人口增长时，世界经济就被认为处于衰退状态。
Went to India about a decade ago and had a great time. Many amazing sites and history and a deep spirituality there. Indians are so friendly too, really enjoyed my experience there. Will definitely be back. Best regards, from the USA.
大约十年前我去过印度，我在那里度过了美好的时光。那里有令人惊叹的景点、悠久历史和深厚的精神文化。印度人也非常友善，我真的很享受在那里的经历，我一定会再次造访。来自美国的祝福。
Tbh as an Indian i do agree with all the analysis it was truly deep dived and i accept we have exactly same strength and weekness. If india wants to be a superpower we need to build a country with good export provide quality education nd health to all lower class section. Need to focus more research and skill oriented education and at last find ways to generate more employment
作为印度人，我完全认同这个深入的分析，承认我们确实存在这些优势和劣势。如果印度想成为超级大国，我们需要建设一个出口导向型国家，为底层群体提供优质的教育和医疗。应该更注重研究和技能教育并创造更多就业机会。
Great industrialists JRD Tata once said Country should not be recognised as superpower because of it's Economy Size. True superpower are countries where people are genuinely happy where they have access to everything they want
著名的实业家JRD Tata曾说：一个国家不应仅因经济规模就被视为超级大国。真正的超级大国是人民真正幸福、能获得所需一切的国家。
India still has a long way to go but it has just started it's journey. Indians will be there eventually. I predict that in 20 years, Indians will be living a much better life across the board. Some of the issues highlighted in the reportage are genuine and others are just political views of the commentators. From my perspective, major areas of improvement are Education and Justice system for which reforms have not yet been initiated. Other areas are already being worked upon and one can see progress.
印度还有很长的路要走，但旅程才刚刚开始。我相信20年后印度人的生活将全面改善。报道中提到的问题有些确实存在，有些则是评论者的政治观点。在我看来，教育和司法系统是最需要改革的领域，而其他方面已经取得进展。
India is growing very fast, but it is not growing fast enough because no emphasis on manufacturing which can employ vast amount of people. A very small percentage will get rich because of the tech sector, income inequality will get worse over time.
印度的发展很快，但还不够快，因为没有重视能创造大量就业的制造业。只有少数人因科技行业致富，收入不平等将日益严重。
Chinese bots reply:- " china walk india talk" calm down guys india also working on thier country but it's a democracy so thier leaders need to advertise themselves to it's like a company who also work and advertise themselves in order to retain consumers
中国网友常说"中国在行动，印度在空谈"。但请冷静，印度也在努力发展。因为是民主国家，领导人需要宣传自己，就像企业既要经营也要营销来留住客户一样。
Give credit to Modi ji for working hard to make India the 5th largest economy in the World and it will soon become the 3rd largest economy. If we still had Anti-Hindu and Anti-India Corrupt Congress Party, Left Parties, Leftists, and com...sts ruling they would have taken India to the level of Pakistan and Sri Lanka economy.
应该肯定莫迪总理的努力，他使印度成了世界第五大经济体，并将很快成为第三大经济体。如果还是由反印度教、反印度的腐败的国大党、左翼政党和印共执政，印度经济可能已沦为巴基斯坦和斯里兰卡的水平。
I am an Indian, our goal is not to be super power but we are trying our best to remove poverty, illiteracy and unemployment at the grass roots levels, our Govt. emphasised on manufacturing and building infrastructure , industries ete, thus we want to develop our country, Thanks for presenting and discussing over Indian economy,
我是印度人，我们的目标不是成为超级大国，而是努力消除基层的贫困、文盲和失业问题。印度政府重视制造业、基础设施和工业建设，致力于国家发展。感谢对印度经济的讨论。
Corruption, poverty, environmental degradation, high unemployment, unbridled population growth, and class discrimination challenge the country to improve. There has been a growth in expatriation with no end in sight.
腐败、贫困、环境恶化、高失业率、人口激增和阶级歧视等问题制约着国家发展。移民海外的人数持续增长，看不到尽头。
India is always veritable in terms of actual numbers when it comes to positive phenomena and yet vulnerable in terms of the massive disparities in these same phenomena. Say, for example, the number of English speakers (as their 1st or 2nd language) in India is the 2nd largest in the world, and yet it ranges somewhere merely between 11 and 15 percent of the population. India will gain from plans for strengthening its human resources in rapid successive waves of development.
印度在积极现象上的绝对数字总是可观，但这些现象内部的巨大差距也很明显。比如印度的英语使用者(作为第一或第二语言)数量排名全球第二，却只占人口的11%-15%。通过加强人力资源建设计划，印度将在快速发展浪潮中获益。
My simple question on women's labour force in India, is how many women are willing to work in all the fields that men work in India? If the answer is 30% and above, then I will agree with the discussion mentioned about in this video. The problem I saw in the last 20-25 years is many women want work which is more desk jobs and not much analytical or technical. India is more of technology, engineering and analytics. I am seeing a new trend in India recently in the last 2 years, finally some network engineer especially women joining the work force. This is good start, and I hope it continues.
关于印度的女性劳动力，我的简单问题是：有多少女性愿意从事男性从事的所有工作？如果达到30%以上，我就认同视频中的讨论。过去20-25年我看到的问题是很多女性只想做文职工作，不愿从事分析或技术工作，而印度更需要技术、工程和分析人才。最近2年出现了新的趋势，终于有女性网络工程师加入劳动力大军，这是个好的开始。
Having the world,s largest population does not automatically translate into superpower status .Look how many decades it took China with a similar size population. It takes the right government policies to even begin on the first step towards that goal as well as the people's attitude towards hard work.
拥有世界最多人口不会自动成为超级大国，看看人口规模相当的中国花了多少年就知道了。这需要正确的政府政策作为第一步，还需要人民勤奋工作的态度。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Absolutely! Even before watching the video, I rushed straight to the comment section the moment I saw the title. There's no doubt about it - it's not a question of "if," but a matter of "when." India is destined to regain its position as an economic superpower, just as it held that status for millennia.
我完全同意！我还没看视频，看到标题就直接来看评论了。毫无疑问，这不是"能否"的问题，而是"何时"的问题。印度注定会重新成为经济超级大国，就像它曾经保持了几千年那样。
India has just started spreading its feet. There is still development left in many things. Out of 100, 20% has happened, when it will be 100%, then India will become almighty, almighty and almighty like the Himalayas. Who will not have enmity with any country. We Indians wish everyone well and will do so.
印度才刚刚起步，在许多方面仍有发展空间。如果说完美是100分，现在只完成了20分。当达到100分时，印度将像喜马拉雅山一样强大无敌。印度对任何国家都没有敌意，我们印度人祝愿所有人都好，并将继续这样做。
This is what I admire DW news for ..in depth balanced ( journalism) analysis and varied perspectives.. A great view point on any topic.. I was waiting for such documentaries/ discussions on Real India which rarely occurs in our mainstream media ( In India too we have lot of great Journalists who speak the real issues )
这正是我欣赏德国之声的原因——深入、平衡的新闻分析和多元视角。对任何话题都有独到的观点。我一直期待这样关于真实印度的纪录片/讨论，这在我们主流媒体中很少见(印度也有很多敢于说真话的优秀记者)。
Brother, I as a Bharatiya/Indian, am trying my best, not someone elses' best but my own best in whatever it is. I have observed other Indians trying their own best to turn around from the horrors its people has faced since 900 years through occupying forces. We are trying to make India a better place than yesterday so that we can help the world to be a better place. Time will tell what will happen. We are trying our best because that is what we do.
兄弟，作为一个印度人，我正在尽自己的最大努力。我观察到其他印度同胞也在尽力扭转900年来被殖民统治的创伤。我们努力让印度变得比昨天更好，从而帮助世界变得更好，时间会证明结果。我们竭尽全力，因为这就是我们的使命。
It feels really amazing to see how far we have come from '47 but Guys dont get carried away. We have got a lot of ground to cover, few nations to conquer and only then we can see ourselves in the mirror and feel like THE TIGER, our national pride.
看到我们从1947年走来的历程令人惊叹，但别得意忘形。我们还有很多路要走，我们需要超越一些国家才能真正对镜自照，感受到我们民族的骄傲——老虎精神。
Being an Indian, I disagree with some remarks made by speakers about democratic values going down during Modi's leadership. These are typical comments coming from pseudo-liberals or western backed institutions. Being an ordinary citizen living here, unlike these speakers who are affiliated to an ideology we are absolutely fine and growing faster under Modi's leadership.
作为印度人，我不同意发言者关于莫迪领导下民主价值衰退的评论，这些是伪自由派或西方背景机构的典型论调。不像那些带有意识形态倾向的发言者，作为生活在这里的普通公民，我们很好，在莫迪领导下发展更快。
Also India has a huge and talented diaspora that has a strong cultural connect with India. That itself is enough to drive the GDP by atleast 200 basis points. If the politicians and the bureaucrats of the country seize this moment, then catapulting to the third biggest economy will happen even faster than 2030.
印度还拥有庞大且人才辈出的海外侨民群体，他们与印度文化联系紧密，这本身就足以推动GDP增长至少200个基点。如果政治家和官僚能抓住这个机会，成为第三大经济体的时间可能比2030年预测的更早。
I think the broader conclusion here is not India becoming a superpower by 2030 or later or it failing in some areas in the broader economic spectrum but essentially the fact that one should not bet against India. India has never lost the bet and no one has lost the bet who has favoured India. That in itself speaks a lot.
我认为更广泛的结论不是印度能否在2030年或之后成为超级大国，或是否在某些经济领域失败，而是本质上不应看衰印度。印度从未让人失望，看好印度的人也从未失算。这本身就说明了很多问题。
India is not only becoming economic super Power but also spiritual capital. PM MODI'S LEADERSHIP is the key. His relentless pursuit of excellence and vision is the difference. India's massive growth is good for the global good
印度不仅正在成为经济超级大国，它还是精神之都。莫迪总理的领导力是关键，他对卓越的不懈追求和远见卓识造就了不同。印度的巨大增长对全球有利。
For India to become an economic superpower, we first have to become a technological superpower, especially in the mechanical, electronic engineering & manufacturing. We are still quite a ways far from achieving this with all our high precision technologies still imported. R&D & Institutional collaborations with Industries, is key to developing this.
要成为经济超级大国，印度首先必须成为技术超级大国，特别是在机械、电子工程和制造领域。我们离这个目标还很远，我们的高精技术仍依赖进口，研发和产学研合作是发展的关键。
As an Indian This growth is very slow it will add only 350Billion every year compared to China's 1.5-2Trillion every year. India can only become Powerful if we grow in double digit i.e., 12-15% annual growth and it's currently impossible because most of major countries are in recession like situation Russia Ukraine war fuel prices hike etc negatively impacting world economy.
作为印度人，我认为这个增长太慢了，每年仅增加3500亿美元，而中国每年增加1.5-2万亿美元。只有实现两位数即12-15%的年增长，印度才能真正强大，但目前不可能，因为多数主要国家处于衰退状态，俄乌战争、油价上涨等对世界经济造成了负面的影响。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
When comparing its important to know the nation of India is developing its country internally. Many other countries have leveraged and continue to exploit other nations for their development, when analyzing them you cannot look at them in isolation, you must consider their total impact on the world and other communities. If India manages to develop itself it will be one of the few that has done so whilst not exploiting other nations. This will be real and fair development - not a gimmick
比较时要知道印度是靠内生动力发展的。许多其他国家通过剥削他国实现发展，分析时不能孤立看待，必须考虑其对世界和其他群体的整体影响。如果印度能实现自主发展，它将成为少数不靠剥削他国而发展成功的国家。这才是真正公平的发展，而非噱头。
Mr Panagariya"s assessment seems to be most realistic! It is not a matter of becoming another USA or China, but achievement of self sufficiency in all possible areas and managing a reasonably good distribution of wealth for its huge population. We will make it!
Panagariya先生的评估最为现实！问题不在于成为另一个美国或中国，而是在所有可能领域实现自给自足，并为庞大人口合理分配财富。我们一定能做到！
According the history, India was in the top two economy for many centuries. It has the potential to regain its status. However, there are many areas that need improvements. It is important that India stay away from the military expansions and focus on its internal improvements - balance workforce, infrastructure, foreign investments and manufacturing capabilities/exports...
历史上印度曾长期位居前两大经济体，它有潜力重获这一地位，但在许多领域需要改进。重要的是印度应避免军事扩张，专注于内部改善——平衡劳动力、基础设施、外商投资和制造/出口能力...
Very well made documentary and key issues pointed out like participation of female labor force and broken education system...also it's true that this growth is masking the core issues this country faces and the plight of majority of its citizens who are middle or below middle class families....this growth is only filling pockets of the 1%a of this nation
制作精良的纪录片，指出了女性劳动参与率和教育体系崩溃等关键问题...确实，这种发展掩盖了国家面临的核心问题和占人口多数的中低收入家庭的困境...发展的成果主要流入了1%富人的口袋。
Here's the thing about all the tremendous growth about India. The GDP growth that you see can easily be credited to the people who belong to the top of the Income pyramid who own businesses. India has always been and always will be one of the biggest consumers of goods and services simply because of the size of the population. Cost of living is cheap, and the population is growing. All India needs as a whole is opportunity to make money and it will easily attain the 3rd position, life will still be hard and nowhere near to western standards though, thanks to the size of the population. And it is safe to say that by the time India achieves the life of western standards, the Indian economy will most likely be stagnant or in a decline. Which is not anytime soon. Given a stable Government, growth is most likely. Generally, Poor people work hard to be able to afford comfort or luxury. People who are born into it tend to not work as hard because they are content with their living conditions.
关于印度惊人增长的事实是：GDP的增长主要归功于金字塔顶端的商业阶层。由于人口规模，印度一直是也将继续是最大的商品和服务消费市场之一。印度的生活成本低廉，人口持续增长。整体而言，印度只需要存在赚钱的机会就能轻松成为世界第三大经济体，但由于人口规模，其生活水平仍将远低于西方标准。可以预见，当印度达到西方生活标准时，经济很可能已停滞或衰退。在政府稳定的情况下，发展是大概率事件。通常穷人会努力工作以追求舒适生活，而生来富裕的人往往不够努力。
The fact that people are still talking about Education , Health after several years of free country , goes credit to our previous regimes . While said that , hope the current govt takes a note of conditions in these categories besides being an OK phase till date. But yes we see a drastic changes in economy under the current govt and final note securing borders will be an utmost priority .
独立多年后人们仍在讨论教育和医疗问题，这要归功于往届政府。希望现政府能关注这些领域，尽管目前经济表现尚可。确实，在现政府领导下经济发生了巨变，而保障边境安全始终是重中之重。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
India & Indians will prevail. When your culture teaches hard work, respecting rules with a big focus on education there is no stopping Indians. Countries jealous or apprehensive of our progress will try to explout fault lines & keep us infighting & weak but most Indians are very smart & know this game. Good to align with the largest population on Earth in good time, rather than work against them
印度和印度人终将成功。当文化崇尚勤奋、守规和重教，印度人就势不可挡。嫉妒或担忧我们进步的国家会试图利用分歧让我们内斗衰弱，但大多数印度人很聪明，他们明白这个游戏。与其对抗，不如及时与地球上最大的人口群体结盟。
Very nicely put all the perspectives. Acknowledging the challenges, pledging to mitigate them capitalizing the opportunities, we step up striving to thrive by participating in the process of nation building. *ignoring the ultra-pessimist Ashok Mody's statement of bleak future we don't seat ideal just complaining, after all no one knows tomorrow.
视频很好地呈现了各种观点。承认挑战，承诺化挑战为机遇，我们通过参与国家建设来谋求繁荣。*请忽略极端悲观者Ashok Mody对黯淡未来的预言，我们不会坐以待毙空抱怨，毕竟没人知道明天会怎样。
As an Indian, I do not understand this obsession with its growth rate and GDP - obsessing over a single metric does not provide a true picture. The country's human development index is down in the dumps, the education system needs a complete overhaul, the infrastructure - especially roads, water supply and sewage - are in shambles, people lack basic decency and civic sense and dont even get me started on the senseless taxation - we pay both direct and indirect taxes. The level of technological development is nowhere near modern democracies (except maybe for UPI being a game changer) and the obsession with relegion and the country's supposedly great history is absolutely sickening. The legal system is overburdened and needs a complete overhaul, starting with the changing the pathetic uniforms of our lawyers.
作为一名印度人，我不理解对增长率和国内生产总值的痴迷--对单一指标的痴迷并不能提供真实的情况。印度的人类发展指数一落千丈，教育系统需要彻底的改革，基础设施--尤其是道路、供水和污水处理--破烂不堪，人们缺乏基本的礼仪和公民意识，甚至不要让我开始谈论毫无意义的税收--我们既要缴纳直接税，也要缴纳间接税。技术的发展水平与现代民主国家相差甚远（也许除了改变了游戏规则的UPI），对民族和国家所谓伟大历史的痴迷绝对令人作呕。法律系统不堪重负，需要彻底的改革，首先要改变的就是我们律师那可悲的制服。