Exclusive: India's $23 bln plan to rival China factories to lapse after it disappoints

独家报道：印度耗资230亿美元的取代中国制造计划，仅四年就凉了


NEW DELHI, March 24 (Reuters) – Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has decided to let lapse a $23 billion program to incentivize domestic manufacturing, just four years after it launched the effort to woo firms away from China, according to four government officials.​

路透社新德里3月24日电，据四名印度政府官员透露，莫迪政府已决定终止一项耗资230亿美元的印度制造业激励计划。而这项“生产关联激励计划”推出仅四年，初衷是为了吸引企业离开中国。
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The scheme will not be expanded beyond the 14 pilot sectors and production deadlines will not be extended despite requests from some participating firms, two of the officials said.​

两位官员表示，该计划将不再扩展到14个试点部门之外，尽管一些参与企业提出请求，但生产期限也不会延长。​

Some 750 companies, including Apple supplier Foxconn and Indian conglomerate Reliance Industries, signed up to the Production-lixed Initiative scheme, public records show.​

根据公开记录显示，包括苹果供应商富士康和印度本土巨头信实工业在内的约750家企业参与了该计划

Firms were promised cash payouts if they met individual production targets and deadlines. The hope was to raise the share of manufacturing in the economy to 25% by 2025.​

政府承诺对达成生产目标的企业发放现金奖励， 期望借此将制造业占GDP比重至2025年能提升至25%。​

Instead, many firms that participated in the program failed to kickstart production, while others that met manufacturing targets found India slow to pay out subsidies, according to government documents and correspondence seen by Reuters.​

但据路透社查阅的政府文件显示，参与该计划的多数企业未能顺利启动生产，而达标企业也遭遇补贴发放迟滞的困境。
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As of October 2024, participating firms had produced $151.93 billion worth of goods under the program, or 37% of the target that Delhi had set, according to an undated analysis of the program compiled by the commerce ministry.​

商务部一份未注明日期的评估报告显示，截至2024年10月，参与公司在该计划下生产了价值1519.3亿美元的商品，仅完成印度政府预设目标的37%。

India had issued just $1.73 billion in incentives – or under 8% of the allocated funds, the document said.​

该文件称，印度仅发放了17.3亿美元的激励资金，不足预算总额的8%。​

News of the government's decision to not extend the plan and specifics about the lag in payouts are being reported by Reuters for the first time.​

路透社率先披露了政府终止计划的决定及补贴发放滞后的具体细节。

Modi's office and the commerce ministry, which oversees the program, did not respond to requests for comment. Since the plan's introduction, manufacturing's share of the economy has decreased from 15.4% to 14.3%.​

莫迪的办公室和负责监督该计划的商务部未回应置评请求。 自该计划推出以来，印度制造业在经济中的比重已从15.4%下降到14.3%。​

In a separate statement on Saturday, the commerce ministry said participating firms had produced $163 billion worth of goods as of November 2024. The ministry did not say if the program would be allowed to expire but said PLIs have "incentivized domestic manufacturing, leading to increased production, job creation, and a boost in exports."​

在周六的一份单独声明中，印度商务部称截至2024年11月，参与公司已生产了价值1630亿美元的商品，但避谈计划存续问题，仅表示生产挂钩激励计划已“激励了国内制造业，促进了生产增加、就业创造和出口提升”。​

Foxconn, which now employs thousands of contract workers in India, and Reliance didn't return requests for comment.​

目前在印度雇佣了数千名合同工的富士康和信实工业也未回应置评请求。​

Two of the government officials told Reuters the end of the program did not mean Delhi had abandoned its manufacturing ambitions and that alternatives were being planned.​

两位印度政府官员告诉路透社，该计划的结束并不意味着印度放弃了其制造业雄心，替代方案已在酝酿中。​

The government last year defended the program's impact, particularly in pharmaceuticals and mobile-phone manufacturing, which have seen explosive growth. Some 94% of the nearly $620 million in incentives disbursed between April and October 2024 were directed to those two sectors.​

政府去年为该计划的成效进行了辩护，特别是在制药和手机制造领域经历了爆炸性增长。 在2024年4月至10月期间发放的近6.2亿美元激励措施中，约94%流向了这两个行业。

In some instances, some food-sector companies that applied for subsidies weren't issued them due to factors such as "non compliance of investment thresholds" and companies "not achieving stipulated minimum growth," according to the analysis.

根据分析报告，部分申请补贴的食品行业企业因未能满足“投资门槛要求”或“未达最低增长目标”等条件而未获得补贴。

The document did not provide specifics, though it found production in the sector had exceeded targets. Reuters could not determine which companies the analysis referred to.

尽管文件未披露具体细节，但指出该行业生产已超出预设目标。路透社无法确定该分析涉及哪些公司。

But Delhi had previously acknowledged problems and agreed to extend some deadlines and increase payment frequency after complaints from PLI participants.

此前，德里方面曾承认该计划存在的问题，并在参与者投诉后同意延长部分期限并增加付款频率。

One of the Indian officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential matters, said that excessive red tape and bureaucratic caution continued to stymie the scheme's effectiveness.

一位不愿透露姓名的印度官员表示，过多的官僚主义和谨慎态度仍在阻碍该计划的成效。

As an alternative, India is considering supporting certain sectors by partially reimbursing investments made to set up plants, which would allow firms to recover costs faster than having to wait for production and sale, another official said.

另一位官员表示，作为替代方案，印度正在考虑通过部分补偿企业建厂投资来支持特定行业，这将使企业能够比等待生产和销售更快地收回成本。

Trade expert Biswajit Dhar at the Delhi-based Council for Social Development think-tank, who has said Modi's government needs to do more to attract foreign investment, said the country might have missed its moment.

德里社会与发展委员会贸易专家Biswajit Dhar表示，莫迪政府需要采取更多措施来吸引外资，而印度可能已经错失了最佳时机。

The incentives program was "possibly the last chance we had to revive our manufacturing sector," he said. "If this kind of mega-scheme fails, do you have any expectation that anything is going to succeed?"

他说：“这项激励计划可能是我们振兴制造业的最后机会。如果这样一个大规模计划都失败了，你还能指望其他计划成功吗？”

The stalling of manufacturing comes as India tries to circumvent the trade war unleashed by U.S. President Donald Trump, who has criticized Delhi's protectionist policies.

印度制造业停滞之际，正值其试图绕开特朗普总统引发的贸易战，特朗普曾批评德里的保护主义政策。
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Trump's threat of reciprocal tariffs on countries like India that have a trade surplus with the U.S. means the export sector is increasingly challenged, said Dhar. "There was some amount of tariff protection ... and all that is going to be slashed."

达尔表示，特朗普威胁对印度等对美贸易顺差国实施对等关税，这意味着印度的出口行业面临越来越大的挑战。“过去还有一定的关税保护……但这一切都将被削减。”

HITS AND MISSES

成败得失

The program was introduced at an opportune time for India: China, which for decades had been the world's factory floor, was struggling to maintain production amid Beijing's zero-COVID policy.

该计划推出的时机对印度来说十分有利：中国几十年来一直是全球制造业中心，但在北京严格的“清零政策”下，其生产受到严重影响。

The U.S. was also seeking to reduce its economic reliance on an increasingly assertive Beijing, prompting many multinationals to pursue a "China plus one" policy of diversifying production lines.

与此同时，美国也在寻求减少对日益强势的中国的经济依赖，这促使许多跨国公司采取“中国+1”战略，分散生产线。
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With its large youthful population, lower costs and a government regarded as relatively friendly to the West, India seemed set to benefit.

凭借庞大的年轻人口、较低的成本以及被视为对西方友好的政府，印度似乎准备好从中受益。

India has become a global leader in pharmaceutical and mobile-phone production in recent years.

近年来，印度已成为全球制药和手机制造的领军者。

The country produced $49 billion worth of mobiles in the 2023-24 fiscal year, up 63% from 2020-21, government data show.

政府数据显示，印度在2023-24财年生产了价值490亿美元的手机，比2020-21财年增长了63%。

Industry leaders like Apple now manufacture their newest and most sophisticated cellphones in India, after having started with low-cost models.

行业巨头苹果公司最初在印度生产低端手机，而现在已将其最新、最先进的手机生产线转移到印度。

Similarly, pharmaceutical exports nearly doubled to $27.85 billion in 2023-24 from a decade ago.

同样，印度的制药出口额在2023-24财年接近翻倍，达到278.5亿美元，而十年前这一数字要低得多。

But the success was not repeated in the other sectors, which include steel, textiles and solar panel manufacturing. India faces fierce competition from cheaper rivals like China in many of those fields.

但在其他领域，如钢铁、纺织和太阳能电池板制造，印度并未取得类似的成功。在这些领域，印度面临来自中国等成本更低的竞争对手的激烈竞争。

In the solar industry, for instance, eight of the 12 companies that signed up to PLI are unlikely to meet their targets, according to a December 2024 analysis of the sector prepared by the renewable energy ministry and seen by Reuters.

以太阳能行业为例，据路透社查阅的再生能源部2024年12月的一份分析报告，参与PLI计划的12家公司中，有8家可能无法实现既定目标。

The eight firms included units of Reliance, Adani Group and the Indian conglomerate JSW.

这8家公司包括信实工业、阿达尼集团和印度综合企业JSW的子公司。

The analysis found that the Reliance entity would only meet 50% of the production target it had been set for the end of the 2027 fiscal year, when the solar PLI scheme will expire.

分析显示，信实工业旗下公司到2027财年末，即太阳能PLI计划到期时可能只能完成其目标产量的50%。

It also said that the Adani business had not ordered equipment it needed to manufacture the solar panels and that JSW had not "done anything yet."

此外，报告指出，阿达尼公司尚未订购生产太阳能电池板所需的设备，而JSW甚至“尚未采取任何行动”。

JSW declined to comment, while Adani did not respond to questions.

JSW拒绝对此置评，而阿达尼未回应相关问题。

The commerce ministry said in a January letter to the renewables ministry seen by Reuters that it would not agree to its counterpart's request to extend the scheme beyond 2027 as doing so "will result in unfair benefit for non-performers."

据路透社查阅的一封商务部1月致可再生能源部的信件，商务部表示不会同意将该计划延长至2027年之后，因为这样做“将给未达标的企业带来不公平的优势”。

The renewables ministry said in response to Reuters' questions that it was committed to "fairness and accountability," as well as "ensuring that only those who meet their targets are rewarded."

可再生能源部在回应路透社的提问时表示，其承诺坚持“公平与问责原则”，以及“仅奖励达成目标的企业”。
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In the steel sector, investment and production also lag targets. Fourteen of the 58 projects approved for PLIs have been withdrawn or removed due to lack of progress, according to the undated program-wide analysis.
($1 = 86.4425 Indian rupees)

在钢铁行业，投资和生产也未能达到预期目标。根据一份未注明日期的全计划范围分析报告显示，在58个获PLI批准的项目中，有14个因进展不足已被撤回或取消。
（1美元=86.4425印度卢比）