All UK families ‘to be worse off by 2030’ as poor bear the brunt, new data warns
-Keir Starmer has been dealt a fresh blow to his living standards pledge in advance of the spring statement

最新数据警告称，到2030年，所有英国家庭的状况都将恶化，穷人首当其冲
——在春季声明之前，斯塔默的生活水平承诺受到了新的打击


(Keir Starmer has promised to put more money in the pockets of working people.)

（斯塔默已承诺将更多的钱放进工人阶层的口袋。）
新闻：

Living standards for all UK families are set to fall by 2030, with those on the lowest incomes declining twice as fast as middle and high earners, according to data that raises serious questions about Keir Starmer’s pledge to make working people better off.

数据显示，到2030年，所有英国家庭的生活水平都将下降，最低收入家庭的下降速度将是中高收入者的两倍。这让人对斯塔默提高工薪阶层生活水平的承诺产生了严重质疑。

The grim economic analysis, produced by the respected Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF), comes before the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, makes her spring statement on Wednesday in which she will announce new cuts to public spending rather than increase borrowing or raise taxes, so as to keep within the government’s “iron clad” fiscal rules.

这份严峻的经济分析报告是由德高望重的Joseph Rowntree基金会撰写的。这份报告将在财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯周三发表春季声明之前发布。在声明中，她将宣布新的公共支出削减计划，而不是增加借贷或增税，以遵守政府“铁板一般”的财政规则。
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In December, the prime minister announced a series of ­“milestones” that he said would be passed before the next general ­election, which is likely to be held in 2029. The first of these was “putting more money in the pockets of ­working people”.

去年12月，首相宣布了一系列“里程碑”，他说这些目标将在下届大选（可能在2029年举行）之前通过。第一个是“让更多的钱放进工人阶层的口袋”。

But with many Labour MPs already deeply concerned about Reeves’s plan to raise about £5bn by cutting ­benefits, including for disabled ­people, evidence that living standards are on course to fall markedly under a Labour government – and to decline most for the least well off – will add to the mood of growing disquiet in party’s ranks.

但是，由于许多工党议员已经对里夫斯通过削减福利（包括残疾人福利）来筹集约50亿英镑的计划深感担忧，有证据表明，在工党政府的领导下，生活水平将明显下降，而最不富裕的人的生活水平下降得最多，这将加剧党内日益增长的不安情绪。

The JRF analysis rests on a ­realistic assumption that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will adjust its forecasts in line with the Bank of England and other main forecasters when it makes them public on Wednesday. The OBR is expected to halve the expected growth rate for this year from 2% to about 1%.

Joseph Rowntree基金会的分析基于一个不现实的假设，即预算责任办公室将在周三公布预测时，根据英国央行和其他主要预测机构的意见调整其预测。预算责任办公室预计将把今年的预期增长率从2%减半至1%左右。

In what it describes as a “dismal reality”, the JRF said its detailed analysis shows that the past year could mark a high point for living standards in this parliament. It concludes that the average family will be £1,400 worse off by 2030, representing a 3% fall in their disposable incomes. The lowest income families will be £900 a year worse off, amounting to a 6% fall in the amount they have to spend.

Joseph Rowntree基金会称这是一个“令人沮丧的现实”，其详细分析显示，过去一年可能标志着本届议会提供的生活水平达到了一个高点。报告的结论是，到2030年，普通家庭的收入将减少1400英镑，这意味着他们的可支配收入将减少3%。收入最低的家庭每年将减少900英镑，相当于他们的支出减少了6%。

The JRF also said that if living standards have not recovered by 2030, Starmer will not only have failed to pass his No 1 milestone but will also have presided over the first government since 1955 to have seen a fall in living standards across a full parliament.

Joseph Rowntree基金会还表示，如果生活水平到2030年还没有恢复，那么斯塔默不仅将无法达到他的第一里程碑，而且还将成为自1955年以来第一个在整个议会中看到生活水平下降的政府。

Comparing 2030 with 2025, it said the average mortgage holder is set to pay about £1,400 more in ­mortgage interest annually and the average renter about £300 more in rent a year, while average earnings are set to fall by £700 a year. The JRF said the poorest third are being disproportionately affected by rising housing costs, falling real earnings and frozen tax thresholds.

报告称，2030年与2025年相比，抵押贷款持有人平均每年将多支付约1400英镑的抵押贷款利息，租房者平均每年将多支付约300英镑的租金，而平均收入每年将减少700英镑。JRF表示，最贫穷的三分之一人口受到住房成本上涨、实际收入下降和税收起征点冻结的影响尤为严重。
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Alfie Stirling, director of insight and policy at JRF, said further cuts were not the way to reverse the trend of falling living standards. Instead, he argued, Reeves should consider raising tax for the wealthiest.

Joseph Rowntree基金会的洞察力和政策主管阿尔菲·斯特林表示，进一步削减开支并不能扭转生活水平下降的趋势。相反，他认为里夫斯应该考虑对最富有的人增税。
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“There is no doubt the government is facing an unenviable list of economic pressures and uncertainties, ranging from the domestic to the international. But how you manage these risks is a matter of political choice..

“毫无疑问，政府正面临着一系列不值得羡慕的经济压力和不确定因素，从国内到国际都有。但如何管理这些风险是一个政治选择问题。

“It is wrong, and ultimately counterproductive, to try and rebuild the public finances through cuts to disability benefits. Instead, government should be addressing hardship and raising living standards directly, as part of their strategy for growth.

“试图通过削减残疾人福利来重建公共财政是错误的，最终会适得其反。相反，政府应该直接解决困难和提高生活水平，作为其增长战略的一部分。

“Fiscal pressures should be met through tax reform. There are a number of options to raise revenue from those with the broadest shoulders, while also supporting growth by removing perverse incentives in the tax system and staying within the government’s manifesto commitments.”

“财政压力应该通过税制改革来解决。有很多选择可以从承受力最强的人群增加收入，同时通过取消税收体系中的不正当激励措施和遵守政府的宣言承诺来支持经济增长。”
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Earlier last week a group of leading economists wrote to the Financial Times warning that it would be a “profound mistake” for ministers to cut spending or investment, adding that “the UK cannot cut its way to growth”.

上周早些时候，一群知名经济学家致信英国《金融时报》警告称，大臣们削减支出或投资将是一个“严重错误”，并补充称，“英国不能通过削减来实现增长”。

Several areas of unprotected government spending such as prisons, justice and local government – the last of which has already seen real terms cuts of over 45% since 2010 – are likely to be in line for further cuts on Wednesday, casting doubt on Starmer’s claim that is not returning the country to austerity.

几个不受保护的政府支出领域，比如监狱、司法和地方政府——自2010年以来，最后一个领域的实际开支已经削减了45%以上——可能会在周三进一步削减，这让人怀疑斯塔默的说法，即国家不会回到紧缩状态。

In her budget last October, Reeves left herself with £9.9bn of “fiscal headroom” – in effect, spare money in reserve – to allow her to meet her fiscal rule that says day-to-day spending must be matched by revenue coming into the Treasury.

在去年10月的预算中，里夫斯给自己留下了99亿英镑的“财政剩余空间”——实际上是储备的余钱——以使她能够满足自己的财政规定，即日常支出必须与进入财政部的收入相匹配。

But higher-than-expected borrowing costs on global markets, leading to higher debt interest payments, and lower than expected growth have wiped away that leeway, leaving her needing to find ways to restore the finances through raising money or cutting expenditure or both.

但全球市场高于预期的借贷成本，导致更高的债务利息支付，以及低于预期的经济增长，已经抹去了这一回旋余地，使她需要通过筹集资金或削减支出，或两者兼而有之，找到恢复财政的方法。

Local government leaders are among those most anxiously awaiting Wednesday’s statement, which they fear could reduce what they receive and tip more councils into bankruptcy, leaving them all straining more to fund key services for the most vulnerable such as social care.

地方政府领导人是最焦急地等待周三声明的人之一，他们担心这可能会减少他们收到的资金，并使更多的地方议会破产，使它们在为最弱势群体提供关键服务（比如社会福利）方面更加紧张。

Councillor Louise Gittins, chair of the Local Government Association, said that “without adequate investment now, we risk not being able to deliver crucial services that so many depend upon and our desire to help government fulfil its ambitions for the future are severely hindered”.

地方政府协会主席、议员路易斯·吉廷斯说：“如果现在没有足够的投资，我们就有可能无法提供许多人依赖的关键服务，我们帮助政府实现未来雄心的愿望也会受到严重阻碍。”

With ministers struggling to manage the economy, the latest Opinium poll for the Observer shows the damage being done to Labour’s reputation from its economic stewardship after eight months in power.

在大臣们努力管理经济之际，Opinium发现，在经济问题上，没有哪一位政党领导人是值得信任的。然而，斯塔默（-32%）和里夫斯（-38%）是最不受信任的，而改革党领袖奈杰尔·法拉奇、保守党领袖凯米·巴德诺克和影子财政大臣梅尔·斯特雷德则分别被评为-22%、-23%和-24%。最新的民意调查显示，执政8个月后，工党的经济管理对其声誉造成了损害。

No single party leader is now trusted on the economy, Opinium found. However, Starmer (-32%) and Reeves (-38%) are the most distrusted, with the Reform leader, Nigel Farage, the Tory leader, Kemi Badenoch, and shadow chancellor, Mel Stride, all rated similarly on -22%, -23% and -24% respectively.

Opinium发现，在经济问题上，没有哪一位政党领导人是值得信任的。然而，斯塔默（-32%）和里夫斯（-38%）是最不受信任的，而改革党领袖奈杰尔·法拉奇、保守党领袖凯米·巴德诺克和影子财政大臣梅尔·斯特雷德则分别被评为-22%、-23%和-24%。

While most voters say they do not trust any party on economic issues, the Tories are now marginally more favoured than Labour to run the economy and “improve your financial situation”.

虽然大多数选民表示，他们在经济问题上不信任任何政党，但在管理经济和“改善你的财务状况”方面，保守党现在比工党略微更受欢迎。

Ministers will announce plans on Sunday to spend £600m on 60,000 more construction workers to help build more homes and revive economic growth.

大臣们将于周日宣布计划，斥资6亿英镑招聘6万名建筑工人，以帮助建造更多住房，重振经济增长。

Reeves said: “We are determined to get Britain building again, that’s why we are taking on the blockers to build 1.5m new homes and rebuild our roads, rail and energy infrastructure.

里夫斯说：“我们决心让英国重新建设起来，这就是为什么我们要接受阻碍，建造150万套新住房，重建我们的公路、铁路和能源基础设施。”

“But none of this is possible without the engineers, brickies, sparkies, and chippies to actually get the work done, which we are facing a massive shortage of.”

“但如果没有工程师、砖匠、清洁工和芯片工人来完成工作，这一切都不可能实现，而我们正面临着严重的短缺。”

“We’ve overhauled the planning system that is holding this country back, now we are gripping the lack of skilled construction workers, delivering on our plan for change to boost jobs and growth for working people.”

“我们已经彻底改革了阻碍这个国家发展的规划体系，现在我们正在解决缺乏熟练建筑工人的问题，实施我们的改革计划，为工人阶层增加就业和经济增长。”
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A Treasury spokesperson said: “Real wages are rising at the highest level in six months, but this government inherited the worst living standards growth since ONS [Office for National Statistics] records began.

英国财政部一位发言人表示：“实际工资正处于6个月来的最高水平，但本届政府接手的是自英国国家统计局有记录以来最糟糕的生活水平增长。

“We are clear that getting more money in people’s pockets is the No 1 mission in our plan for change. Since the election, there have been three interest rate cuts, we have increased the national living wage by a record amount, the triple lock on pensions means that millions will see their state pension rise by up to £1,900 this parliament and working people’s payslips have been protected from high taxes.”

“我们很清楚，让人们的口袋里有更多的钱是我们改革计划的首要任务。自选举以来，已经有三次降息，我们将全国最低生活工资提高到创纪录的水平，养老金三重锁定意味着数百万人的国家养老金将在本届议会中增加1900英镑，劳动人民的工资单将免受高税收的影响。”

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