The shift in relations between Russia and the US may open a door for a more balanced multipolar system

俄美关系的转变可能为一个更加平衡的多极体系打开一扇大门

Africa has been heavily affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine since the start of Russia’s military operation in February 2022.

自2022年2月俄罗斯开始军事行动以来,非洲受到俄乌冲突的严重影响。
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According to a report compiled by ODI Global, the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC), the Economic Research Forum (ERF), and Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP), ‘Impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on Africa: policy implications for navigating shocks and building resilience’, Africa has been caught in the crossfire due to lack of supplies of food and agricultural commodities.

根据ODI全球、非洲经济研究联盟、经济研究论坛和经济政策伙伴关系编写的一份报告《俄罗斯-乌克兰战争对非洲的影响:应对冲击和增强抵御能力的政策启示》,非洲因缺乏粮食和农产品供应而陷入困境。

The report features case studies on Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Morocco, Mozambique, Senegal, South Africa, and Sudan, and finds that while direct trade exposure is low, Africa relies on Russia and Ukraine for food and fertilizer imports.

报告对埃及、埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚、摩洛哥、莫桑比克、塞内加尔、南非和苏丹进行了案例研究,发现尽管直接贸易接触率较低,但非洲依赖俄罗斯和乌克兰的食品和化肥进口。

Prices up
The conflict has driven up prices of oil, food and fertilizers globally. Simulations suggest that a 10% shock in oil, food and fertilizer prices may reduce Africa’s annual GDP by $7 billion. Actual impacts are likely to be higher since oil, food and fertilizer prices increased by larger shares, at 40%, 18% and 55%, respectively, in 2022.

价格上涨
冲突导致全球石油、食品和化肥价格上涨。模拟结果表明,石油、食品和化肥价格波动 10% 可能导致非洲年度 GDP 减少 70 亿美元。实际影响可能更大,因为石油、食品和化肥价格涨幅更大,到 2022 年分别达到 40%、18% 和 55%。

Global commodity price increases also prompted an increase in interest rates in high-income countries, which in turn triggered capital outflows, exchange rate depreciation and higher borrowing costs for many African countries. The magnitude of an individual country’s impacts varies based on commodity dependence, financial openness, and domestic vulnerabilities.

全球大宗商品价格上涨也促使高收入国家提高利率,进而引发资本外流、汇率贬值和许多非洲国家借贷成本上升。单个国家受到的影响程度因大宗商品依赖程度、金融开放程度和国内脆弱性而异。

The conflict may have exacerbated the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the deterioration of Africa’s macroeconomic and social performance. The overlapping crises have slowed Africa’s development progress and risk long-term “scarring” effects. In 2022, 18 million new poor people were added to the 546 million Africans already living in poverty, and one out of five Africans faced high levels of food insecurity. Women and vulnerable groups also tend to be disproportionately impacted by shocks.

冲突可能加剧了新冠疫情对非洲宏观经济和社会表现恶化的影响。多重危机减缓了非洲的发展进程,并有可能产生长期的“疤痕”效应。2022年,非洲贫困人口总数已达5.46亿,新增贫困人口1800万,五分之一的非洲人面临严重的粮食不安全状况。妇女和弱势群体也往往受到冲击的严重影响。

Wheat and fertilizers
In Kenya and Egypt, for example, Russian and Ukrainian wheat once accounted for as much as 85% and 67% of wheat imports respectively. Fertilizers, vital for agriculture, have also become scarce and expensive. Egypt, Ethiopia, Morocco, Senegal, and South Africa sourced 11%–41% of their fertilizer imports from Russia and Ukraine. As a result, food prices have soared, pushing millions into food insecurity.

小麦和肥料
例如,在肯尼亚和埃及,俄罗斯和乌克兰小麦曾分别占小麦进口量的 85% 和 67%。对农业至关重要的肥料也变得稀缺和昂贵。埃及、埃塞俄比亚、摩洛哥、塞内加尔和南非从俄罗斯和乌克兰进口了 11%-41% 的肥料。结果,粮食价格飙升,使数百万人陷入粮食不安全境地。

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Energy bills have surged, putting pressure on national budgets and household finances. Fuel prices in some countries have more than doubled, forcing governments to pass costs onto consumers or risk bankruptcy. The economic strain has also forced many African families to cut spending on once-affordable essentials, with the most vulnerable populations being hit the hardest.

能源账单激增,给国家预算和家庭财务带来压力。一些国家的燃料价格上涨了一倍多,迫使政府将成本转嫁给消费者,否则将面临破产的风险。经济压力还迫使许多非洲家庭削减曾经负担得起的必需品支出,最脆弱的人群受到的打击最大。

In West Africa, the situation is the same. The economic crisis in Nigeria has been substantially driven by the conflict, which has had an impact on the costs of important commodities as well as everyday living expenses. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to shortages in fertilizer availability, leading to high prices of fertilizer. Likewise, prices of major food commodities, such as maize, rice, wheat and cooking oils, have been on the rise. This has exposed the country’s vulnerable agrifood system and weakened the local currency, leading to foreign exchange shortages and high inflation rates.

西非的情况也一样。尼日利亚的经济危机很大程度上是由冲突引发的,冲突影响了重要商品的成本以及日常生活开支。俄罗斯和乌克兰的冲突导致化肥短缺,化肥价格上涨。同样,玉米、大米、小麦和食用油等主要食品的价格也在上涨。这暴露了该国脆弱的农业食品体系,削弱了当地货币,导致外汇短缺和高通胀率。

According to a Global Agricultural Information Network report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture, Nigeria is spending more on wheat imports amid high global wheat prices. The situation has negatively impacted Nigeria’s wheat supply value chain. More importantly, official records showed a drastic reduction in durum wheat imports from Russia in 2022. Russia was one of the country’s primary sources of cheap wheat.

根据美国农业部对外农业服务局(FAS)的全球农业信息网络报告,在全球小麦价格高企的背景下,尼日利亚在小麦进口上的支出增加。这种情况对尼日利亚的小麦供应价值链产生了负面影响。更重要的是,官方记录显示,2022 年从俄罗斯进口的硬粒小麦大幅减少。俄罗斯是该国廉价小麦的主要来源之一。

Grain deal collapse
The issue of supply disruption has a direct lix with the Black Sea grain deal that collapsed. The deal, which was initially brokered by the UN and Türkiye in July 2022, was meant to facilitate the export of Ukrainian grain, such as wheat, corn and sunflower products, to world markets, primarily to poorer countries.

粮食协议破裂
供应中断问题与破裂的黑海粮食协议有直接联系。该协议最初由联合国和土耳其于 2022 年 7 月促成,旨在促进乌克兰粮食(如小麦、玉米和向日葵产品)出口到世界市场,主要是出口到较贫穷的国家。

In exchange for allowing the shipments of Ukrainian grain, Moscow was promised that Western sanctions would be lifted from its own agricultural exports. A year after it was struck, Russia had to abandon the deal, arguing that it was still unable to get any of its grain or fertilizer out to world markets and that the West had completely ignored its end of the bargain.
Additionally, Moscow noted that more than 70% of the shipments under the initiative had failed to reach poor countries, especially in Africa, and were instead delivered to wealthy nations.

作为允许乌克兰粮食运输的交换条件,俄罗斯承诺解除西方对其农产品出口的制裁。协议达成一年后,俄罗斯不得不放弃这项协议,称其仍无法将任何粮食或化肥运往世界市场,西方完全无视其承诺。
此外,莫斯科指出,根据该倡议,70% 以上的粮食未能运抵贫穷国家,尤其是非洲国家,而是运往了富裕国家。

Russia then announced it would deliver free grain directly to African countries, in order to help with food security. In July 2023, during the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg, President Vladimir Putin pledged to provide free food assistance to six African countries, and Moscow had successfully completed delivery of 200,000 tons of food aid by February 2024.

俄罗斯随后宣布将直接向非洲国家提供免费粮食,以帮助保障粮食安全。2023年7月,在圣彼得堡举行的俄非峰会上,俄罗斯总统普京承诺向六个非洲国家提供免费粮食援助,莫斯科已于2024年2月成功完成了20万吨粮食援助的运送。

Oil and gas
On the oil and gas market, Nigeria’s National Oil Company NNPC Limited affirmed that the crisis has affected the supply chain of Nigeria’s energy outlook. Maryamu Idris, executive director, Crude & Condensate, NNPC Trading Limited, said in a November 2023 panel presentation at the Argus European Crude Conference in London, that in addition to the substantial price shocks impacting commodity and energy prices globally, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has triggered a situation where India, a primary destination for Nigerian crude oil increased its appetite for discounted Russian barrels to the detriment of some Nigerian volumes.

石油和天然气
在石油和天然气市场,尼日利亚国家石油公司 NNPC Limited 确认,这场危机已经影响了尼日利亚能源前景的供应链。NNPC Trading Limited 原油和凝析油执行董事 Maryamu Idris 在 2023 年 11 月伦敦 Argus 欧洲原油会议上的小组演讲中表示,除了影响全球大宗商品和能源价格的重大价格冲击外,俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的冲突还引发了这样一种情况:作为尼日利亚原油主要目的地的印度增加了对俄罗斯打折原油的需求,从而损害了部分尼日利亚原油产量。

“To illustrate the extent of this shift, Nigeria’s crude exports to India dwindled from approximately 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the six months preceding the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine to 194,000 in the subsequent six months afterwards. And so far, this year, only around 120,000 bpd of Nigerian crude volumes have made their way to India,” she said.

“为了说明这种转变的程度,尼日利亚对印度的原油出口量从 2022 年 2 月入侵乌克兰前六个月的约 25 万桶/日减少到随后六个月的 19.4 万桶/日。到目前为止,今年只有约 12 万桶/日的尼日利亚原油运往印度,”她说。

What’s next?
Now that the prospect of peace is here, it looks portent that the African economy will be revived to a more positive direction.
What is even more significant is the prospect of the American acceptance to the new reality of the multipolar world. Saudi Arabia, not Belgium or France or the United Kingdom, was chosen for talks between the US and Russia. Under President Donald Trump, the US is indicating its disconnect to the old order where everything starts and ends in the West. This, however, remain somewhat twisted, considering Trump’s unfavorable stand against the BRICS.

接下来会发生什么?
既然和平的前景已经到来,这似乎预示着非洲经济将朝着更积极的方向复苏。
更重要的是,美国接受多极世界新现实的前景。美国和俄罗斯选择在沙特阿拉伯进行会谈,而不是比利时、法国或英国。在唐纳德·特朗普总统的领导下,美国表明它与一切始于西方、终于西方的旧秩序脱节。然而,考虑到特朗普对金砖国家的不利立场,这种说法仍然有些扭曲。

The fact is, Africa will be better with the new multipolar order. Most of the current multilateral institutions were created before many African states gain their independence. The United Nations, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, World Trade Organization, SWIFT Payment system, etc. were all created, engineered and controlled by the Western powers, often deployed at the detriment of African progress.

事实上,在新的多极秩序下,非洲会变得更好。大多数现有的多边机构都是在许多非洲国家获得独立之前建立的。联合国、国际货币基金组织、世界银行、世界贸易组织、环球银行金融电信协会支付系统等都是由西方列强创建、设计和控制的,这些机构的部署往往损害了非洲的进步。

These institutions help in strengthening the unipolar system, with the US as the leader of hegemony, supported by the European unx. These institutions have long been tagged as the neocolonial assets used in shortchanging the African continent on its valuable resources, weakening the growth and development of the entire continent through unfair treatment and practices.

这些机构有助于加强以美国为霸权领袖、欧盟为后盾的单极体系。长期以来,这些机构一直被视为新殖民主义资产,用于剥夺非洲大陆的宝贵资源,通过不公平的待遇和做法削弱整个非洲大陆的增长和发展。
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More balance needed
Hence the quest for Africa is to have a new, more balanced international system.

需要更多的平衡
因此,非洲的追求是建立一个新的、更加平衡的国际体系。

Africa has long demanded to be a permanent member of the UN Security Council, several promises were made by the US and other powers, yet nothing was granted. Africa requested enough trade to fund its infrastructure, healthcare and education programs that will serve the needs of the people, yet the Western powers deem it more appropriate to respond to African demands for equal participation and representation with aid, rather than with mutually beneficial proposals to both parties.

非洲长期以来一直要求成为联合国安理会常任理事国,美国和其他大国也曾多次作出承诺,但最终都未能实现。非洲要求有足够的贸易来资助其基础设施、医疗保健和教育项目,以满足人民的需求,但西方大国认为,用援助来满足非洲平等参与和代表权的要求比提出对双方都有利的提议更合适。
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The new peace talks between Russia and the US may open the door for a more equal, balanced and orderly multipolar system that will be formed when Africa is fully aware, independent and at the table. This will help Africa as a continent to push forward its interests within the emerging BRICS multipolar system.

俄美之间的新和平谈判可能为更加平等、平衡和有序的多极体系打开大门,当非洲充分意识到这一点、独立并参与其中时,这一体系就会形成。这将有助于非洲大陆在新兴的金砖国家多极体系中推进其利益。