经济学家为何憎恨特朗普的关税计划
Why Economists Hate Trump's Tariff Plan
译文简介
关税是前总统唐纳德·特朗普经济计划的核心。他希望对来自中国的所有商品征收 60% 的关税，对来自世界其他地区的所有商品征收 10%-20% 的关税。他想利用这种极端的贸易政策来创造收入以减税。但它们将如何运作呢？
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Beware politicians peddling simplistic solutions to complex problems.
警惕那些拿简单解决方案来应对复杂问题的政客。
"For every complex problem, there's a solution that is simple, neat, and wrong."
H.L. Mencken
“每一个复杂的问题背后，都会有一个简单、整洁但错误的解决方案。”
—— H.L. 门肯
WHY DON'T PEOPLE KNOW HOW TARRIFS WORK. I'm here in Argentina, and you want to know how much a bottle of imported shampoo generally costs? $20-$30. And some items don't have many competitors, so the Argentian products get away with ALSO increasing their prices, because it will still be cheaper than the imported option, and it causes a domino effect with increased prices. Tarrifs are a nightmare for regular people
为什么大家都不知道关税是怎么回事？我现在在阿根廷，你想知道一瓶进口洗发水一般多少钱吗？大约20到30美元。而且有些商品竞争不大，阿根廷本地产品趁机也涨价了，因为即使涨价，它依然比进口的便宜，这就导致了价格上涨的连锁反应。关税对普通人来说真的是一场噩梦。
As an economist, it's just gonna be a disaster. Just watch as everything gets expensive, leading to higher inflation
作为一名经济学家，这简直就是灾难。等着看吧，一切都会变得更贵，通货膨胀也会越来越严重。
In all honesty, it actually doesn't matter who on earth pays the tariff whether it be the manufacturer or the importer. Because at the end of the day, only one person will pay. The Consumer.
说实话，谁来支付关税其实并不重要，不管是制造商还是进口商。因为最终，真正支付的只有一个人——消费者。
Economists hate it because they are not stupid
经济学家讨厌它，因为他们不是傻子。
Trump said "China paid the tariffs", but in reality, American consumers paid. That's thinking about hurting China first, not benefiting Americans first. In the end, who lost the trade war?
特朗普说“是中国支付了关税”，但实际上，是美国消费者支付了。这是在想着先伤害中国，而不是先惠及美国人。最终，谁输掉了这场贸易战？
I’m starting to see how it was possible for Trump to bankrupt the casino
我开始明白为什么特朗普能够把赌场搞破产了。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
I work for one of the nation’s largest steel importers and distributors. When Trump imposed the tariffs on steel we kept buying the Chinese steel (because that’s what our customers wanted) and took that opportunity to massively jack up our prices on American steel to MATCH the now inflated price of imported steel. All our competitors did the EXACT SAME thing. Our customers had no choice but to now pay this premium costing American consumers billions of dollars extra annually and as a result helping send the country into economic inflation due to everything costing more. Edit: Industrial customers who buy steel for manufacturing can’t simply switch over to a different steel due to the elemental properties of said metals. Each “type” of steel, even though categorized as “the same” have slightly different properties that throw off a factory’s setting and require all new testing and production line recalibration. You can’t just STOP buying one type of steel and switch to another. That’s why our customers demanded we keep selling them the Chinese steel they had been using before the tariffs. These tariffs HURT American industry and we handed that hurt down to the customer’s pocketbooks.
我在全国最大的钢铁进口商和分销商之一工作。当特朗普对钢铁征收关税时，我们继续购买中国钢铁（因为这是客户需要的），并趁机大幅提高美国钢铁的价格，以便与进口钢铁上涨后的价格对齐。我们的所有竞争对手都做了完全一样的事情。客户别无选择，只能支付这一溢价，导致美国消费者每年额外支出数十亿美元，结果是整个国家陷入了经济通胀，因为一切都变得更贵了。编辑：那些购买钢铁用于制造的工业客户，不能随便换成其他钢铁，因为不同钢铁的元素特性不同。即使它们被归类为“相同”的钢铁，实际的属性也略有不同，这会影响工厂的设定，且需要重新测试和调整生产线。你不能轻易停止购买一种钢铁然后改用另一种。这就是为什么我们的客户要求我们继续卖他们关税前使用的中国钢铁。关税伤害了美国工业，而我们把这种伤害传递给了客户的钱包。
I have a major problems getting behind an economic plan proposed by someone who was able to bankrupt a casino.
我真没法支持一个由让赌场破产的人提出的经济计划。
It's ironic that Trump pushes for tariffs on China to 'protect American jobs,' yet many of his own campaign products are made in China. If he truly wanted to support American workers, shouldn't he lead by example and source locally? This feels more like a double standard than a real solution.
讽刺的是，特朗普提议对中国征收关税以“保护美国工作岗位”，但他的很多竞选产品却是中国制造的。如果他真的想支持美国工人，难道不应该以身作则，选择本地采购吗？这更像是一种双重标准，而不是解决问题的办法。
This is quite tarrifying
这真是太“关税”了。
It's actually insane we have a candidate whose only economic policy is tarrifs, and he genuinely has no idea what a tarrif even is
简直不可思议，我们竟然有一个候选人，唯一的经济政策就是关税，而且他根本不知道关税是什么。
I’ve always appreciated the line “Tariffs are you doing to yourself in peacetime what your opponents will attempt to do to you in wartime.”
我一直很喜欢这句话：“关税就是你在和平时期做的事情，敌人在战争时期会试图做同样的事。”
This video does not cover the fact that Trump does not understand how tariffs work. Trump had claimed that tariffs don't raise the price on goods. Trump had suggested a 200% tariff on an American company that moved manufacturing out of the US.
这段视频没有提到特朗普根本不懂关税是怎么运作的。特朗普曾声称关税不会提高商品价格。他还提议对一家把制造业务迁出美国的美国公司征收200%的关税。
‘Play a game of chicken’ is such a good way to end the video lol
“玩一场‘较量’的游戏”真是结束视频的绝佳方式，哈哈。
He doesn’t have a tariff plan. He’s been asked at least two dozen times in various interviews what his tariff plan is, and he has never once answered the question.
他根本没有关税计划。在各种采访中，他至少被问了二十几次关于关税计划的问题，但他从未回答过。
I work in the manufacturing industry and those 2018 tariffs radically changed the entire market. We had to be so incredibly careful about price increases and not shooting ourselves in the foot. It didn't help that construction jobs basically came to a close across the country, because they are planned months or even years ahead of time and a sudden massive increase like that was just too much. Companies that had been in the industry for decades were suddenly gone, tons of jobs were lost, and we were in the worst position that we could have been for when COVID hit.
我在制造业工作，2018年的关税彻底改变了整个市场。我们不得不非常小心地控制价格上涨，避免自讨苦吃。更糟糕的是，全国范围内的建筑工作几乎停止了，因为这些项目通常要提前几个月甚至几年规划，而突然的巨大涨幅简直是无法承受的。那些在行业内已经营几十年的公司突然消失，成千上万的工作岗位消失，我们在疫情来临时处于最糟糕的境地。
A major cause of the Great Depression in the 1930s was tariffs. Nobody wins trade wars,
上世纪30年代大萧条的一个主要原因就是关税。没有人能赢得贸易战。
The consumer always loses.
消费者总是最终付出代价。
Trump: I will fix inflation
Also Trump: proposes a tariff which will cause massive inflation
特朗普：我将解决通货膨胀
同时特朗普：提议征收关税，这将导致大规模的通货膨胀
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Tariffs will increase costs of finished goods and components used throughout US manufacturing. This will be an immediate and huge hike in inflation. To fight inflation the Fed will have to hike interest rates which will be wonderful for the billionaires but possibly take away the middle class. Inflation is so high that consumers are literally taking debt for basic life necessities. Collapse has indeed begun..
关税将提高美国制造业使用的成品和零部件的成本。这将导致通货膨胀立刻大幅上涨。为了对抗通货膨胀，美联储将不得不提高利率，这对亿万富翁来说是好事，但可能会削弱中产阶级。通货膨胀已经高得惊人，消费者甚至不得不借债来支付基本生活必需品。崩溃的开始已经显现。
I love how the American poor rush to elect leaders who promote more poverty for them.
我真是喜欢美国贫困群体如何急着选举那些为他们带来更多贫困的领导人。
Great informational video. Didn’t think we’d get sentimental and deep but I’m here for it.
这是一段很棒的信息视频。我没想到会变得这么感性和深刻，但我喜欢。
As someone that lives in a country that used to be protectionist using import tariffs, our economics will say, in any day of the week, that protectionism in a globalized economy is the fastest way to shrink your own economy and make progress to stagnate quickly.
作为一个生活在曾经依赖进口关税的保护主义国家的人，我们的经济学观点是，在全球化经济中，保护主义是最迅速缩小自己经济并迅速停滞进步的方式。
Kinda crazy how people don’t realize a tariff plan will be terrible for the American people. We import too many products, especially from China… this will also allow American companies to up their prices, greed seems to always win.
有点疯狂，人们竟然没有意识到关税计划对美国人民有多糟糕。我们进口了太多的产品，尤其是来自中国的……这还会让美国公司提高价格，贪婪似乎总是占上风。
Two repeatedly occurring events in the world with no winners: war, and tariffs.
世界上有两件反复发生的事情，没有赢家：战争和关税。
Condensed version: The working class suffers.
简明版本：工人阶级受苦。
1.5 billion for 1.5k jobs is unbelievable.
15亿美元换1500个工作岗位，真是难以置信。
It’s almost like Trump isn’t actually that smart of a businessman. Who could have predicted that?
几乎就像特朗普根本不是那么聪明的商人。谁能预测到这一点？
Anybody here January 31st 2025 on the eve of tariff's for Mexico and Canada?
2025年1月31日，这里有人关注即将对墨西哥和加拿大征收关税吗？
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
I usually look up your videos for upxes! Our government has no idea how people are suffering these days. I feel for people with disabilities not getting the help they deserve.
我通常会查看你们的视频来获取更新！我们的政府完全不了解现在人们的困境。我为那些没有得到应有帮助的残障人士感到难过。
Tariff are a way to shift taxes to the poor and middle class.
关税是一种将税负转嫁给贫困和中产阶级的方式。
Trust a repeatedly bankrupt businessman? Only angry voters who don't understand economics would want this clown running things!!
相信一个屡次破产的商人？只有那些不了解经济学的愤怒选民才会希望让这个小丑来执政！
Tariffs are just another tax. It will be the man in the street who have to pay in the end.
关税不过是另一种税收。最终，街头的小人物将不得不为此买单。
Increased Prices for Consumers: Tariffs raise the cost of imported goods, which often gets passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. This reduces purchasing power and can make everyday items more expensive
消费者面临价格上涨：关税提高了进口商品的成本，通常这种成本会以更高的价格转嫁给消费者。这降低了购买力，可能使日常用品变得更加昂贵。
I better not hear a single maga fan complaining about inflation in these next four years
希望接下来的四年里，我不会听到一个特朗普支持者抱怨通货膨胀。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
you guys totally blew it when you didn't even mention how china retaliated by not buying us grain . thousands of us farmers went bankrupt because they lost the Chinese market. this kind of thing will happen all over the world .
你们真是完全搞砸了，居然连中国如何反击、停止购买我们粮食的事都没提。成千上万的美国农民因为失去了中国市场而破产。这种事情将在全球范围内发生。
I could have answered that in two seconds:
Because it’s stupid and will cost the poorest in the US the most.
我两秒钟就能回答这个问题：
因为它很愚蠢，而且会让美国最贫困的人付出最多代价。
I'm from Germany, and i don't see why we should please the us, if they wanna be so aggressiv. There are other countries emerging with better terms and friendlier attitude. The US isn't the only Market out there...
我来自德国，我不明白为什么我们要讨好美国，如果他们想这么咄咄逼人。现在有其他国家在崛起，提供更好的条件和更友好的态度。美国不是唯一的市场……
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Let's not forget that many companies will CHOOSE to raise their prices with these things because it's the normal thing to do. It doesn't actually have to be like this.
别忘了，许多公司会 主动 借此机会涨价，因为这已经成为惯例。事实上，完全不必如此。
How idiotic it is to believe and pick a privileged rich dude for a president and not expect him to grant more privileges to his rich buddies in the detriment of the poor/average folk is beyond me...
让我无法理解的是，居然有人天真地相信并选择了一个出身优越的富豪当总统，还指望他不去给自己的富人朋友谋利，而不是牺牲普通民众的利益……
This video is recommended to me now after USA imposes tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada.
美国对中国、墨西哥和加拿大加征关税后，YouTube 现在才给我推荐这段视频……
It's not about the economy for him. He wants to mindlessly swing around power and hopes that the rest of the world will acquiesce. That's why so much has been announced and paused shortly thereafter.
对他来说，这根本不是经济问题。他只是想随意炫耀自己的权力，并希望全世界都顺从他。这就是为什么很多政策刚宣布不久又被暂停。
A tariff is a tax on the consumer. That is the lesson my country (New Zealand) learned in the 1970s and 1980s. We had a totally protected economy in the early 1980s when we had the most expensive cars in the world thanks to tariffs to protect our so-called car industry. Now we don't have a car industry, which was not worth saving, but we have very cheap cars. Tariffs also cause economic distortions and inefficiency. US consumers will suffer under Trump's plan.
关税本质上是对消费者征税。这是我所在的国家（新西兰）在 20 世纪 70 至 80 年代学到的教训。上世纪 80 年代初，我们曾有一个完全受保护的经济体系，靠关税来“保护”所谓的汽车产业，结果导致新西兰的汽车价格全球最高。现在，我们的汽车产业已经消失（本来也不值得保留），但我们却拥有了非常便宜的汽车。关税不仅会导致经济扭曲和低效，也会让美国消费者在特朗普的政策下受苦。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Elect a clown, expect a circus.
选个小丑当总统，就别指望有正常日子过。
How American people think that a multiple times failed businessman knows how to save a country's economy is absolutely bewildering to me.
美国人居然觉得一个屡次破产的商人能拯救国家经济，这让我实在无法理解。
I'm relieved that the comment section is still full of reasonable and smart people and not bowing down to Donald Trump's selfish desires.
看到评论区里仍然充满理性和聪明的人，而不是盲目顺从特朗普的自私欲望，我松了一口气。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
All those Trump supporters saying the economy was important to them, and then showing they don't understand anything about the economy.
那些支持特朗普的人总是说经济对他们很重要，但他们的言行却表明他们完全不懂经济。
Hahahah, he's president now, shows that half of the Americans don't read anything other than the headlines.
哈哈哈，他现在又当总统了，这说明美国有一半的人只会看新闻标题，根本不看内容。
Markets look like 2015-16. Probably going back to all-time highs, but will probably go sideways until the Fed signals rate cut. Recently sold 25% of my $285k portfolio comprising of plummeting stocks that were recommended by certain financial YouTubers, quite devastating!
市场看起来像 2015-16 年那样，可能会回到历史最高点，但可能会一直横盘，直到美联储暗示降息。最近我抛售了我 28.5 万美元投资组合中的 25%，其中很多股票是某些财经 YouTuber 推荐的，亏惨了！
To sum up, whether the price is higher or lower, the only entity put at risk is THE BUYER.
总结一下，不管价格涨还是跌，唯一承担风险的永远是 买家。
Big surprise. If you use tariffs and remove competition, local production has no incentive to do anything except be 1 penny cheaper than the tariffed product.
真是大惊喜。如果你用关税来消灭竞争，本地生产商唯一的动力就是把价格设定为比受关税影响的进口商品便宜一分钱，仅此而已。
How did America get so stupid that you have to explain everything to them, and they still don’t understand?
美国到底怎么了？你把所有道理都解释给他们听了，他们居然还是听不懂？
These tariffs are a terrible idea, but people voted for this guy anyway. That decision will come back to haunt them. I mean, you handed the keys to the guy who created all these economic problems in the first place.
这些关税是个糟糕透顶的主意，但人们还是选了这个家伙。这个决定最终会让他们后悔的。毕竟，你们把钥匙交给了那个一手制造了这些经济问题的人。
If tariffs worked, why isn’t everyone using them?
如果关税真的有效，为什么不是每个国家都在用？
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Trump: “I don’t have to be smart, I just need to know how stupid the voters are.”
特朗普：“我不需要聪明，我只需要知道选民有多蠢。”
25% tariffs this weekend. Hold onto your butts people, we're about to be much poorer.
本周末 25% 关税生效。各位，准备勒紧裤腰带吧，我们即将变得更穷了。
The last time we tried this it didn't work out so good.
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was passed by Congress in 1930.
The act was named after its sponsors, Republican Senator Reed Smoot and Republican Representative Willis Hawley.
The act raised tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods.
The act was signed into law by President Herbert Hoover in June 1930.
What were the effects of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act?
The tariff led to retaliatory tariffs from other countries.
The tariff caused a reduction in American exports and imports by 67%.
The tariff caused prices to increase in the U.S., making it harder for people to afford goods.
The tariff failed to protect domestic businesses.
The tariff contributed to the global economic decline of the 1930s.
上次我们试过这种做法，结果并不好。
斯穆特-霍利关税法案于 1930 年由国会通过。
该法案以其发起人——共和党参议员里德·斯穆特和共和党众议员威利斯·霍利的名字命名。
该法案提高了超过 20,000 种进口商品的关税。
该法案于 1930 年 6 月由总统赫伯特·胡佛签署成为法律。
斯穆特-霍利关税法案的影响是什么？
该关税导致其他国家的报复性关税。
该关税导致美国进出口减少了 67%。
该关税导致美国国内价格上涨，使人们更难负担商品。
该关税未能保护国内企业。
该关税加剧了 1930 年代的全球经济衰退。
Here after Mexico, Colombia and Canada all caved to different demands to avoid a 25% tariff.
现在来看，墨西哥、哥伦比亚和加拿大都为了避免 25% 关税而屈服了各种要求。
Everyone I know thinks this is a terrible idea.
我认识的每个人都认为这是个糟糕的主意。
No more income taxes but everything you buy has a giant tax (tariff) on it. Great stuff.
不再征收所得税了，但你买的每样东西上都有巨额税费（关税）。真是太棒了。
Over half of America thought a failed businessman can solve the problems but they are about to find out that he’s about to exacerbate their problems by a major factor.
超过一半的美国人认为一个失败的商人能解决问题，但他们即将发现，他将通过一个重大因素加剧他们的问题。
Who will punish the responsible for exporting our jobs, we lost all manufacturing jobs.
谁来惩罚那些把我们的工作外包出去的人？我们失去了所有制造业的工作岗位。
In light of the ongoing global economic crisis, it is crucial for everyone to prioritize investing in diverse sources of income that are not reliant on the government. This includes exploring opportunities in stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the challenging economic situation, it remains a favorable time to consider these investments.
鉴于全球经济危机持续蔓延，每个人都应优先投资于不依赖政府的多元化收入来源。这包括探索股票、黄金、白银和数字货币的投资机会。尽管经济形势艰难，但现在仍是考虑这些投资的有利时机。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
This policy means middle class Americans will pay for the rich to get richer.
这一政策意味着中产阶级美国人将为富人变得更富有埋单。
Trump doesn’t know what a tariff is which is absolutely insane for a former president. He actually thinks China pays the tariff.
特朗普根本不知道什么是关税，这对于一位前总统来说简直是疯狂。他竟然认为是中国支付了关税。
It's the regular people who are getting affected by this.
受此影响的其实是普通民众。
When WSJ is being critical to a Republican president, you know how bad the situation is.
当《华尔街日报》批评一位共和党总统时，你就知道情况有多糟糕了。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Just think of it as a 20% tax increase.
把它当作是一次20%的税收增加就好了。