红迪热议《哪吒之魔童闹海》票房成功的原因及电影行业的未来

@CinemaFan344
Avatar 3 has an unexpected competito

《阿凡达3》迎来了一个意想不到的竞争者。

@utilizador2021
Crazy numbers for a movie released in a single market.

对于一部只在单一市场上映的电影来说，真是个疯狂的数字。

@Key_Feeling_3083
It's Chinese society more homogenous? Or this is the result of them being just so many people in their coutry

（回复utilizador2021）是中国社会更为同质化吗？还是说这仅仅是因为他们国家人口众多的结果？

@SockNo1637
Both! Most people know Mandarin as a lingua franca, and it was released during Chinese New Year. The release date is prime time for huge Chinese blockbusters as it is during a national holiday and many take time to go to the theaters.
The pervasive cultural legends surrounding Nezha also contributed to its success. Most of the population of China is of Han ethnicity, but India has many different cultural and language spheres.

两者都有！中国大多数人都能说普通话，且这部电影正好在中国春节期间上映。这个档期正是中国大片的黄金档期，因为是全国假期，很多人都会抽时间去看电影。围绕哪吒的广泛文化传说也为其成功做出了贡献。
中国大多数人口是汉族，但（同样14亿人口的）印度有许多不同的文化和语言群体。

@Due_Imagination2883
There are dozens of Chinese languages and cultures, but the success of this movie has nothing to do with ethnicity lMao. Chinese people don’t watch (or avoid) movies because of ethnic identification.
Nezha isn’t defined as a Han legend, it’s a Chinese legend that all Chinese people know.

（回复SockNo1637）中国有数十种语言和文化，但这部电影的成功与民族无关，哈哈。中国人看什么电影（或不看什么电影）并不是因为民族认同。
哪吒不仅仅只是汉族的传说，它是一个所有中国人都知道的中国传说。

@EvenAd3470
You're absolutely right, Chinese Society is very homogeneous.

（回复Key_Feeling_3083）你说得完全正确，中国社会确实非常同质化。

@Important-Mud-9081
On the contrary, China has 56 ethnic groups

（回复EvenAd3470）恰恰相反，中国有56个民族。

@NoNefariousness2144
Goes to show that a film hitting $4 billion is possible eventually. It just has to be huge in China and the rest of the world.

（回复utilizador2021）这证明了一部电影最终能突破40亿美元是有可能的。它只需要在中国和全球其他地区都能取得巨大的成功。

@Simple-Motor-2889
$4 billion really isn't even that crazy to imagine.
$1B from China + $1B from US + $2B elsewhere is totally reasonable.
and by totally reasonable I mean something on the level of Titanic or Avatar, adjusted for today's inflation and theater expansion.

（回复NoNefariousness2144）40亿美元其实并不是难以想象的数字。
中国10亿美元 + 美国10亿美元 + 其他地区20亿美元，完全合理。
所谓完全合理，指的是像《泰坦尼克号》或《阿凡达》这样的级别，只不过是根据今天的通货膨胀和电影院扩展进行调整后的数字。

@rammo123
I think the cinema experience will die out eventually, or at least be relegated to the relatively niche experience like theatre. It's possible that we've reached peak BO, even factoring in inflation.

（回复NoNefariousness2144）我认为在电影院这一娱乐体验形式最终会消失，或者至少会沦为像剧院那样相对小众的体验。即使考虑到通货膨胀，我们也可能已经达到了票房的顶峰。

@Agile-Music-2295
In the USA, 2002 was peak cinema attendance. In 2024 half the number of people visit each year.
It’s just that ticket prices have doubled in the last 20 years.

（回复rammo123）在美国，2002年是电影院观影人数的高峰期。到2024年，每年去电影院的人数却只有之前的一半。
只是过去20年里电影票的价格翻了一番。

@WirelessZombie
Does this make sense with the rise of China?
Maybe in the US domestic market that's true

（回复Agile-Music-2295）从中国的票房增长来看是讲得通的吗？（译者注：这里指的是上一条评论里“在美国，2002年是电影院观影人数的高峰期”的论述）
也许在美国国内市场确实如此。

@Agile-Music-2295
Yeah I was talking about USA.
Right now in the USA it’s all about TikTok. Use has doubled in a few years while mobile gaming has dropped dramatically, along with produced content.

（回复WirelessZombie）是的，我说的正是美国。
现在在美国，一切都与TikTok有关。TikTok使用量在几年内翻了一倍，而移动游戏的使用量急剧下降，制作内容也随之减少。

@KhaLe18
I think both can thrive at the same time tbh. China is far more addicted to tiktok and short form content on the web than America is, yet they're also have record ticket admission numbers.

（回复Agile-Music-2295）我认为两者都可以同时蓬勃发展呀。中国比美国更沉迷于抖音和短视频内容，但他们也有创纪录的电影观影人数。

@Block-Busted
Yeah, I honestly find arguments like "TikTok will cause cinemas to die out" argument to be kind of questionable at best and borderline asinine at worst. Like, this was one of the arguments on why Inside Out 2 might actually gross less than its predecessor worldwide.

（回复KhaLe18）是的，老实说我觉得像“TikTok会导致电影院消亡”这种论调挺可疑的，甚至还显得非常愚蠢。比如，这曾是为什么《心灵奇旅2》全球票房不如前作的可能理由之一。

@Commercial_Jelly_893
This is ridiculous in a week projections have gone from $1 billion to $2 billion

这太荒谬了，才一周，票房预估就从10亿美元涨到20亿美元了。

@AvengingHero2012
Can someone explain why the hell this happened? Why did this specific film take off like this?

能有人解释一下这是怎么发生的吗？为什么这部电影会这么火？

@Firefox72
Ne Zha is a widly beloved tale and charachter with multiple adaptations across the last 100 years with a very strong cultural imprint. The 1979 animated movie in particular is well beloved.
Which means it transcends ages from young to old and genders. Ne Zha 2 is what Holywood would call a Four-quadrant movie. Unlike Battle At Lake Changjin or Wolf Warrior 2.
The 2019 first part was very well received going on to become the 2nd highest grossing movie in China and with 2nd most admissions behind Wolf Warrior 2. Hell it became the biggest animated movie in a single market beating Incredibles 2's Domestic gross at the time. It left a lasting legacy.
The 2nd part is bigger, better, riding on the sequel boost and released into the most superjuiced Holiday period on the planet. A period where 4 of the 6 movies flaundered leaving a big opening. Which Ne Zha 2 captured.
Thing is it became so big so fast that it likely transcended past the general movie going population as people online and on TV saw how much its making and decided to check it out. Then recommend it forward etc...

（回复AvengingHero2012）哪吒是一个广受喜爱的故事和角色，过去100年里有多次改编，并且有着非常强烈的文化烙印，尤其是1979年那部动画电影（译者注：指的是经典美术片《哪吒闹海》），深受喜爱。
这意味着它超越了年龄和性别的界限。《哪吒之魔童闹海》正是好莱坞所说的“四象限票房强片”（译者注， Four-quadrant movie是指可以吸引到年轻男性、年轻女性、中老年男性、中老年女性这四个主要观众群体的“全龄化”电影，好莱坞常用《泰坦尼克号》来作为案例）。与《长津湖》或《战狼2》不同。
2019年的第一部（即《哪吒之魔童降世》）反响非常好，最终成为当时中国票房第二高的电影，仅次于《战狼2》，并且观影人次也排在第二位。简直可以说，它成为了单一市场最大的一部动画电影，超越了当时《超人总动员2》的国内票房。这部电影留下了深远的影响。
第二部（即《哪吒之魔童闹海》）更大、更好，依托续集效应，在全球最火爆的假期档期上映。在这个档期，6部电影中有4部票房滑坡，给了《哪吒2》一个巨大的机会。而《哪吒2》也抓住了这个机会。
关键是，它迅速变得如此火爆，可能已经超越了普通的观影人群，因为网上和电视上的人们看到它的票房表现后，纷纷决定去观看，接着又推荐给他人……

@Living_Rough_992
This is unprecedented. I'm really curious to see how this movie is gonna do in other markets. So far I can only see it's confirmed to be released in Australia, the US, and New Zealand. I hope a few other distributors in major markets pick it up.

这是前所未有的。我真的很想看看这部电影在其他市场的表现如何。到目前为止，我只看到它已确认将在澳大利亚、美国和新西兰上映。希望其他一些主要市场的发行商能接手。

@Infinite077
How do I watch the first one

我该如何观看第一部（即《哪吒之魔童降世》）？

@MingoUSA
YouTube, search “Ne Zha”, it’s original Chinese version w/ subtitles. Free with ads

（回复Infinite077）在YouTube搜索“Ne Zha”，它是中文原版+带字幕，免费带广告。

@helpmeredditimbored
If In USA it’s on roku channel, original mandarin with English subtitles

（回复Infinite077）如果你在美国，可以去 roku 频道上看，普通话原声+英文字幕。

@jackass_of_all_trade
This year could be a history in the making. Two 2 billion movies in a single year

今年可能是正在创造历史的一年。一年两部 20 亿部电影。

@TBOY5873
This is 2025’s TGM/Barbie/IO2, except nobody predicted it to get anything and now it could reach $2B, far away from any of those films grosses

这部电影是2025年的《壮志凌云2：独行侠》/《芭比》/《异星觉醒2》，只是没有人预料到它能取得任何成绩，现在它可能会突破20亿美元，远远超出这些影片的总票房。

@FartingBob
This is nothing like those films, its nothing like any film release we've ever seen.
Endgame had the opening weekend hype but fell off quickly. Titanic had the never ending run and was the first film to do well worldwide. But Ne Zha 2's run is utterly unique, it just isnt slowing down, each day of the week is performing like an opening day.

（回复TBOY5873）这部电影与那些影片完全不同，也和我们以前见过的任何电影发行趋势都不一样。
《复仇者联盟：终局之战》有着开画周末的热度，但很快就掉下去了。《泰坦尼克号》则有着无休止的上映期，并且是第一部在全球范围内表现出色的影片。但《哪吒之魔童闹海》的票房表现是独一无二的，它迄今为止根本没有放缓的迹象，每一周的每一天票房都像是首映日一样！