越南会从美国的关税中受益吗？
Will Vietnam benefit from the U.S tariffs?
译文简介
如果美国不针对越南，那就可以。
正文翻译
Will Vietnam benefit from the U.S tariffs?
越南会从美国的关税中受益吗？
越南会从美国的关税中受益吗？
Some say that by increasing tarrifs on China, Chinese and American companies will relocate to Vietnam, benefiting our economy and making us a local superpower. What do you think?
有人说，通过提高对中国的关税，中国和美国公司将迁往越南，从而使我们的经济受益，并使我们成为区域大国。你怎么看？
有人说，通过提高对中国的关税，中国和美国公司将迁往越南，从而使我们的经济受益，并使我们成为区域大国。你怎么看？
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likes: 170
If USA doesn't target VN, then yes.
Otherwise, VN would be negatively affected, as VN's export to USA is like 25% of total VN's GDP.
Given high trade's deficit between USA and VN, I doubt that Trump wouldn't target VN.
如果美国不针对越南，那就可以。
否则，越南将受到负面影响，因为越南对美国的出口约占越南 GDP 总量的 25%。
鉴于美国和越南之间的高贸易逆差，我怀疑特朗普不会放过越南。
likes: 64
Even if he did, it's hard to imagine it'd be higher than China, EU, Mexico and Canada. If everyone's getting fucked, the winner is the one getting the least fucked.
即便如此，也很难想象（越南受到的影响）会比中国、欧盟、墨西哥和加拿大更高。如果大家都遭殃，那么赢家就是受害最轻的那个。
likes: 45
Even China he is only planning 10% rn, way fucking lower than he promised and fucking lower than Canada and Mexico at 25%.
What a president eh?
Edit: Forgot there was already a 25% before so 35% in total now. But he promised 60% so my point about it being lower still mostly stands.
即使是中国，他现在也只计划 10%，比他承诺的低得多，比加拿大和墨西哥的 25%也低得多。
多好的总统啊？
编辑：忘了之前已经有 25%了，所以现在总共是 35%。但他承诺的是 60%，所以我关于更低的观点基本上还是站得住脚的。
likes: 16
He’s basically holding it over their heads so they would get scared and give into his demands lol. China has bargaining power.
他基本上是让关税在他们头上悬着，好让他们害怕，满足他的要求，笑。中国有讨价还价的能力。
likes: 29
Looks like Canada and Mexico ain't gonna back down that easily. And we're just two *weeks* in.
Hope the price of egg has gone down over there lM.
看来加拿大和墨西哥不会那么容易就认怂。咱们这（特朗普上任）才刚开始两周呢。
希望他们那边的鸡蛋价格已经降下来了，哈哈。
likes: 1
My friend in California told me it's about $12 for a dozen eggs now, going up under Trump due to Bird Flu.
我在加州的朋友说，现在一打鸡蛋要12美元左右，特朗普当政的时候因为禽流感还在涨价。
likes: 11
He should be more worried about his country own pricing first before imposing any tariffs because if implemented prices for Americans are going to shoot up drastically lol. Esp considering Mexico and Canada are among US's top 3 trading partners and about 30% of American woods supply comes from Canada.
Good thing Canada and Mexico look like they aren't going to give up without a fight first. Good for them.
在征收任何关税之前，他应该首先更担心自己国家的价格，因为如果实施关税，美国人的价格将大幅上涨，哈哈。特别是考虑到墨西哥和加拿大是美国的三大贸易伙伴之一，而美国约30%的木材供应来自加拿大。
好在加拿大和墨西哥看起来不会不战而屈人之兵。干得好。
likes: 15
Trump knows that the production chain cannot be reversed, but he does not dare to increase taxes on rich Americans, so he taxes other countries to cover the budget deficit. But this is essentially raising taxes on the middle class and poor Americans, the gap between rich and poor will become bigger and bigger.
特朗普明知生产链无法逆转，却不敢对美国富人增税，只好向其他国家征税来弥补预算赤字。但这实质上是给美国中产阶级和穷人增税，贫富差距会越来越大。
likes: 3
Trump already gave China 25% tariff since his last term, and it was kept until now. So now it becomes 25% + 10% = 35%.
特朗普自上任以来已经对中国征收了 25% 的关税，并且一直维持到现在。所以现在变成了 25% + 10% = 35%。
likes: 1
Still much lower than the 60% he promised so my point still stands.
还是比他承诺的 60% 低得多，所以我的观点仍然成立。
likes: 2
Canada kinda deserves it. The liberal gov has been trying to undermine canada's best partner and Canadians voted those people in. That will change when the conservatives are back in control and harmony is restored.
加拿大有点自作自受。自由党政府一直试图破坏加拿大最好的伙伴关系，而加拿大人自己投票选择了这些人。等保守党重新掌权，一切都会好起来。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
likes: 1
He usually starts with some crazy starting point that is completely unreasonable, then negotiates to what he really wants somewhere in the middle so the other side can say they were able to get him to back off somewhat. He has successfully used this haggling tactic several times already.
他惯用的手法是先提出一个离谱到极点的要求，根本不讲道理，然后再慢慢谈判，最终达到他真正想要的结果。这样一来，对方就能说他们成功让他让步了。他这套讨价还价的伎俩已经屡试不爽了。
likes: 1
But VN is more dependent on US exports at this point. US stands only for less than 15% of total exports for China and much less for overall GDP. For Vietnam it’s one fourth of GDP.
但越南现在更依赖美国出口。美国只占中国出口总额的不到15%，占GDP的比例就更少了。而对越南来说，这个数字占了他们GDP的四分之一。
likes: 6
Trump's tariffs are more political then economic. Notice the countries Trump hit with tariffs are all countries he has issues with on a political basis. China and the US are geo political rivals Trump did a trade war in his first term. Trump detests Canada so it was always going to go that way. And the US and Mexico have numerous issues with each other. Trump wants them to comply to his demands by using tarriffs as a way to strong arm them. Vietnam is so under the radar in American politics most Americans don't even realize how much of their textile based products actually come from there.
特朗普的关税更多是政治性的，而不是经济性的。请注意，特朗普征收关税的国家都是他在政治上有过节的国家。中国和美国是地缘政治上的竞争对手，特朗普在第一任期内就打了一场贸易战。特朗普讨厌加拿大，所以这是必然的结果。而美国和墨西哥之间也存在许多问题。特朗普希望通过关税来强迫他们遵从他的要求。越南在美国政治中几乎不被关注，大多数美国人甚至没有意识到他们的纺织品实际上有多少来自那里。
likes: 7
This yea, Trump just mostly wants countries he has beefs/problems with to bow down to his will. He doesn't want to negotiate, he wants them to "pay".
Notice how he's pretty much kinda alright or even on decent terms with Russia and China despite them mostly being considered enemy of the West. It's pretty much because those guys don't actively try to meddle in American politics *directly* and are ready to go along Trump's favors since they are already a pretty self sustainable economy on their own. Meanwhile Trump prob sees Canada and Mexico as these lesser countries yet the US is depending so much on them so he just imposes tariffs on them to curb their supply line.
It's hilarious that many of his supporters fail to see that most of his policies are more political than trying to actually solve any social or economical problems within his country. I just saw a post about how him imposing a 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada is to stop fentanyl and illegals immirgrants.
I was like: "What does tariff have to do with stopping fentanyl or illegal immigrants". Well because they dont, it's just a dumb excuse because the main reason is him wanting Canada and Mexico to bow down to his demands. Well now that he picked a fight with Canada, can't wait to see them retaliate by imposing tariffs or place restrictions on exporting to US lol.
And it has only been 2 weeks and it's alr this much of a circus. Wonder what would happen in the next 4 years.
没错，特朗普主要是想让与他有过节/问题的国家屈服于他的意志。他不想谈判，只想让他们"付出代价"。
请注意，他与俄罗斯和中国的关系还算不错，甚至还算融洽，尽管它们大多被认为是西方的敌人。这差不多是因为这些国家并不积极地试图“直接”插手美国的政治，而且因为它们自己已经是一个相当自给自足的经济体，所以愿意顺着特朗普的意思走。与此同时，特朗普可能将加拿大和墨西哥视为较小的国家，但美国却非常依赖他们，因此他对他们施加关税以遏制他们的供应链。
可笑的是，他的许多支持者都没有意识到，他的大多数政策更多的是政治性的，而不是试图真正解决国内的社会或经济问题。我刚看到一则帖子，提到他对墨西哥和加拿大征收25%的关税是为了阻止芬太尼和非法移民。
我当时想：“关税和阻止芬太尼或非法移民有什么关系？”其实没有关系，这只是一个愚蠢的借口，因为他真正的原因是想让加拿大和墨西哥屈服于他的要求。现在他和加拿大闹翻了，真想看看他们会如何通过征收关税或对美国出口设置限制来报复，哈哈。才过了两周，事情就已经这么混乱了。真想知道接下来的四年会发生什么。
likes: 2
Small correction he is infact not ok with China and hit them with a 10% tariff while not as big as Canada and Mexico's whopping 25% is still significant and if his last term is indication most likely trade war 2 is going to hit soon. But you are right that there's a huge personal egotystical angle to all of this. It's not even national security or some Machevillian level realist scheme as Russia wants to destroy the US and sieze their position on the global stage as the new big bad. Trump's leniency towards them is actually bad for the US economically, politically, and even on regards to their security. Yet he's lenient towards them and so are his brain dead followers not realizing that there making the exact same mistake the Brits made with the Prussian except dumber because at least the Prussians while haboring their own ambitions that became imperial Germany were useful against France, where as Russia is blatantly anti US it's so stupid it's almost painful to watch it happen like a bad sitcom when the character is doing something that's so obviously going to blow up in their face in the next scene.
小小地更正一下，他其实对中国并不友好，并对中国征收了 10%的关税，虽然没有加拿大和墨西哥高达 25% 的关税那么大，但也是很重要的，如果他的上一任期是个征兆的话，很可能很快就会爆发第二次贸易战。但你说得对，这一切都有巨大的个人利己主义因素。这甚至不是国家安全问题，或某种马基雅维利式的现实主义计划，因为俄罗斯想要摧毁美国并夺取其在全球舞台上的地位，成为新的“大坏蛋”。特朗普对他们的宽容实际上对美国在经济、政治甚至安全方面都是不利的。然而，他对他们宽容，他的脑残追随者们也对他们宽容，没有意识到他们正在犯与英国人对普鲁士所犯的完全相同的错误，而且更加愚蠢，因为至少普鲁士怀有自己的雄心壮志，在成为德意志帝国时，是有利于英国对抗法国的，而俄罗斯则公然反美，这种情况愚蠢得几乎让人痛苦。就像一部糟糕的情景喜剧，角色在做一些显然会在下一幕中自食其果的事情。
likes: 1
Canada already imposed 25% tariif over 150bil$ US goods, Mexico will have tariff for US too, so trade war can consider begin. Cant wait to see next 4/2 with new tariff effective what will happens
加拿大已经对价值1500亿美元的美国商品征收了25%的关税，墨西哥也将对美国商品征收关税，因此可以认为贸易战已经开始。迫不及待想看看4月2日新关税生效后会发生什么了。
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likes: 3
Trump has an upcoming 1.5B golf course investment in VN.
特朗普即将在越南投资 15 亿美元建设高尔夫球场。
likes: 1
If the tariff levels are distributed relatively evenly among trading partners, the main people getting hurt first will be the American consumers.
Secondary impacts will be on trading partners with tariffs at 10% or above, and again it depends on what that partner exports to the US. Oil producers for one example may feel no impact as its possible that industry may be exempt.
Ultimately, the cost of living as a result of this within the US could cause a revolt among Trumps main voter base (working class & middle class outside the cities).
As a result, I think these tariffs will be temporary and will be wound back within 6 months to a year.
If that doesn't happen, Trump's ineptitude & hubris will put him at risk. Two nutcases have already taken shots at him.
如果关税水平在贸易伙伴之间相对均匀分布，首先受到伤害的主要是美国消费者。
其次，受到影响的将是关税在10%或以上的贸易伙伴，这又取决于该伙伴向美国出口什么。例如，石油生产国可能不会受到影响，因为该行业可能会被豁免。
最终，这种情况可能导致美国的生活成本上升，从而引发特朗普主要选民基础（城市外的工人阶级和中产阶级）的反抗。
因此，我认为这些关税将是暂时的，并将在6个月到1年内撤回。
如果这没有发生，特朗普的无能和自负将使他面临风险。已经有两个疯子向他开炮了。
likes: 8
It's not that simple.
The majority of US imports from Vietnam come from independant dealers and traders importing stuffs such as fruits, materials and overseas companies exporting their products made in Vietnam to US.
Meanwhile american goods are simply too expensive to turn a profit from importing in Vietnam unless you are targeting technical stuffs like technologies, cameras, etc... It's going to be extremely hard hence why US even had so many trade deficits with so many countries lol
事情没那么简单。
美国从越南进口的大部分商品都来自独立经销商和贸易商，他们进口水果、原材料等商品，以及在越南生产产品并出口到美国的海外公司。
与此同时，除非你瞄准的是技术产品，比如科技产品、相机等等，否则美国商品对于在越南进口来说实在太贵了，根本赚不到钱。
这事儿难搞得很，这也是为什么美国和那么多国家都有贸易逆差的原因，哈哈。
likes: 60
Vietnam may become the next target once Trump realizes that China has already shifted production there to evade tariffs. This strategic relocation, which has already occurred, allows Chinese firms to bypass trade restrictions, but it could prompt the U.S. to impose tariffs on Vietnam as well.
一旦特朗普意识到中国已经将生产转移到越南以规避关税，越南就可能成为下一个目标。这种战略转移已经发生，它允许中国企业绕过贸易限制，但也可能促使美国对越南征收关税。
likes: 7
Very possible, the US already did this for Mexico but I’m suspecting it’s mostly because they already have underlying beef from immigration issues, while Trump haven’t even mentioned VN yet. If he did, Trump would probably make some demands before threatening tariffs tho so that gives us options.
很有可能，美国已经对墨西哥采取了这样的措施，但我怀疑这主要是因为他们在移民问题上已经有了潜在的矛盾，而特朗普甚至还没有提到越南。如果他提到的话，特朗普可能会在威胁征收关税之前提出一些要求，这样我们就有了选择。
likes: 25
You think he knows? Come on
你认为他有这个意识？得了吧。
likes: 1
I mean he hasn't mentioned us yet so... Mayve he just doesn't care? The EU seems like the next target.
我的意思是他还没有提到我们，所以……也许他根本不在乎？欧盟似乎是下一个目标。
likes: 34
Majority of VNese who support Trump applaud his anti-Chinese rhetoric. Having more Chinese businesses move to Vietnam is ironic, no?
大多数支持特朗普的越南人对他的反华言论表示赞赏。更多中国企业迁往越南，这不是很讽刺吗？
likes: 14
Anti-Chinese rhetoric is just one of the reasons that Vietnamese is supporting Trump.
Majority of Vietnamese are just seeing him as an alpha male billionaire with supermodel wife's that fit their imagination of success. Recently I have heard someone praised Trump for being a very good father his sons and daughters.
反华言论只是越南人支持特朗普的原因之一。
在大多数越南人眼中，特朗普是一个拥有超级名模妻子的亿万富翁，符合他们对成功的想象。最近，我听到有人称赞特朗普是一个很好的父亲，他的儿子和女儿都很优秀。
likes: 1
Most of Vietnamese have no clue of what Trump represent. They are very uneducated at least on politics
大多数越南人都不知道特朗普代表什么。至少在政治方面，他们是非常缺乏教育的。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
likes: 33
Hard to say, seems like any connection to China could lead to tariffs.
很难说，似乎任何与中国的联系都可能导致关税。
likes: 43
Any country that exists is currently at risk of Trump’s tariffs
任何国家目前都面临特朗普关税的风险
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
likes: 15
Can he put a tariff on the US? lol jokes
他能对美国征收关税吗？
likes: 24
Wouldn't surprise me if he tried to put tariffs on California or something
如果他想对加利福尼亚州征收关税什么的，我也不会感到惊讶。
likes: 4
Technically he can, if you tariff a county and they tariff back as a trade war, he would be tariffing himself by proxy.
从技术上讲，他可以这样做，如果你对一个国家征收关税，而他们以贸易战的方式进行反制，那么他实际上是在间接地对自己征收关税。
likes: 34
This is all such a knee jerk shitshow that the markets will crash before Vietnam has any time to react or adjust.
So don't count on it.
这完全就是一场毫无章法的瞎折腾，市场崩盘的速度会比越南做出反应或调整的时间还快。
所以，别指望越南能从中获利。
likes: 21
This is the right answer. We are heading towards a global economic and societal collapse that even Vietnam is going to feel to varying degrees. There are few winners here if any at the end of the day, especially if we head into WW3.
这话说得对。我们正走向全球性的经济和社会崩溃，即使是越南也会受到不同程度的影响。到头来，就算有赢家，也不会多，特别是如果我们真的打起世界大战。
likes: 1
Fully agree. And ww3 probably means we're going to join China, voluntary or not.
完全同意。而且世界大战很可能意味着我们要和中国站在一起，不管我们愿不愿意。
likes: 41
trump is unpredictable with his braindead policies, you can never know if he will hit VN with tariffs next. but as always, when china gets hit with tariff, they usually outsource the backend production to vietnam, let vietnamese workers do the last 1% of the products and slap "made in Vietnam" on them to avoid tariff. in the short term, this means more jobs for workers, but at the same time vietnamese economy can become more reliant on china
特朗普的政策简直是脑残，完全无法预测，你永远不知道他下一步会不会对越南下手。但通常来说，中国一旦被加征关税，他们就会把后面的生产外包给越南，让越南工人做最后1%的活儿，然后贴上“越南制造”的标签来规避关税。短期来看，这能给越南工人带来更多工作机会，但同时也会让越南经济更加依赖中国。
likes: 6
The thing is that he’s not just hitting China with tariffs, he’s planning on hitting the EU, Mexico, Canada, etc… so multiple foreign companies in general is gonna flock to Vietnam. So I don’t think it would give China a “monopoly” persay
问题是，他不仅仅针对中国征收关税，他还计划打击欧盟、墨西哥、加拿大等等……所以总的来说，很多外国公司都会涌入越南。所以我认为这并不会让中国获得“垄断”地位。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
likes: 7
The problem with your thesis is that:
1. Vietnam is already a major beneficiary of China+1. So a lot of growth has already been realized.
2. Vietnam does not have the infrastructure or workforce to serve as an immediate replacement for goods in all the markets affected.
3. Trump is unpredictable and could do anything at any time. He particularly likes to pick on countries that have large trade surpluses with the US, and countries that would have limited options for retaliation. Vietnam has both.
4. Trump [has already made statements about Vietnam](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-threatens-vietnam-which-has-been-benefiting-from-us-tariffs-on-china-2019-06-26), including "Well, a lot of companies are moving to Vietnam, but Vietnam takes advantage of us even worse than China" and "Vietnam is almost the single worst – much smaller than China, much, but it’s almost the single worst abuser of everybody."
你的论点的问题在于：
1. 越南已经是“中国+1”的主要受益者。因此，很多增长已经实现了。
2. 越南没有基础设施或劳动力来立即取代所有受影响市场的商品。
3. 特朗普难以预测，随时可能做出任何事情。他尤其喜欢找那些与美国有巨额贸易顺差的国家和报复手段有限的国家下手。越南两个特点都有。
3. 特朗普已经发表过关于越南的言论，包括“好吧，很多公司都在向越南转移，但越南占我们的便宜比中国还厉害”和“越南几乎是唯一最糟糕的——比中国小得多得多，但它几乎是唯一最糟糕的虐待者”。
likes: 4
China will shift more productions to VN to evade tariff and also fucking up local pricing as the same time, they’ve been doing this for years
中国将把更多产品转移到越南，以规避关税，同时抬高当地定价，他们这样做已经很多年了。
likes: 6
Trump team has already commented on this, they said tariff on Vietnam will depend on whether Vietnam is on "US team or China team", loosely quoted.
So far Vietnam has given very strong signals like sending Vietjet's CEO to meet Trump and Musk with an agreement to buy 200 Boeings and building two more LNG power plant slated to join the national grid in February 4th. The Foreign minister has also said that transparency in trades going in and out the country will be a very high priority from now on.
Vietnam knows tariff will wreak havoc on its economy that's why it has taken many preemptive steps like the above and many more to come in the next 4 years.
特朗普团队已经对此发表了评论，他们说，对越南征收关税将取决于越南是站在 "美国队还是中国队 "一边。
到目前为止，越南已经发出了非常强烈的信号，比如派 Vietjet 的首席执行官与特朗普和马斯克会面，并达成了购买 200 架波音飞机的协议以及建设两座计划于2月4日并入国家电网的液化天然气发电厂。越南外长还表示，从现在起，进出越南的贸易透明度将成为重中之重。
越南深知关税将对其经济造成严重破坏，因此采取了许多预防措施，如上述措施，并将在未来 4 年内采取更多措施。
likes: 4
Lel. If Trump pushes VN into a corner, VN will fall into China's side. Let's hope he won't go that far.
China is still a neighbour, and the US has a tendency to leave when they get bored.
哈哈。如果特朗普把越南逼到绝境，越南就会倒向中国。希望他不会走到那一步。中国始终是邻国，而美国往往会在无法攫取利益时选择离开。
likes: 2
Every country will eventually get a turn, unless trump gets a personal benefit.
Best thing vietnam can do is tell trump it’s on his side, and discretely give him some benefit, like a piece of land for a golf course development. Small price to pay.
每个国家最终都会轮到自己，除非特朗普能获得个人利益。
越南能做的最好事情就是告诉特朗普它站在他这一边，并且私下给他一些好处，比如一块用于高尔夫球场开发的土地。这是一个很小的代价。
likes: 2
Don't worry, our PM Pham Minh Chinh already said that he will play golf with Trump like Abe did, we are safe thanks to golf diplomacy
别担心，我国总理范明正已经表示，他将像安倍晋三一样与特朗普打高尔夫球，有了高尔夫外交，我们就安全了
likes: 1
No. Trump wants to reindustrialise, can't do it if Chinese factories move to VN and keep sending stuff to the US.
He has targeted VN in the past as a "currency manipulator" specifically, no reason to believe he won't now.
Trump will find a reason to put tariffs on Vietnam (not using USD with China and Russia, trade surplus, currency, the works) and we won't be able to do much about it because he ultimately wants protectionism.
不，特朗普想要实现再工业化，但如果中国工厂迁往越南并继续向美国输送货物，就无法实现这一目标。
他过去曾专门把越南作为 "汇率操纵国"，没有理由相信他现在不会这样做。
特朗普会找理由对越南征收关税（不与中国和俄罗斯使用美元、贸易顺差、货币，等等），而我们对此无能为力，因为他最终想要的是保护主义。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
likes: 1
Vietnam has huge problems because of extremely high shipping costs and logistics. Shipping costs from Vietnam to the USA are beyond crazy compared to shipping from China.
越南的问题很大，因为运输成本和物流成本极高。与从中国发货相比，从越南到美国的运费简直是天文数字。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
likes: 2
Those factories are not going to America, not just because of the costs but also the fact that most Americans hate factory jobs, you know, working on an assembling line.
那些工厂不会搬到美国，不只是因为成本问题，还因为大多数美国人都不喜欢在工厂工作，你知道的，就是在流水线上干活。
likes: 1
Yup I 100% agree. This will not work.
是的，我 100% 同意。这行不通。
likes: 1
More like factory owners hate paying workers a living wage.
更准确的说法是，工厂老板们不愿意给工人支付足够维持生计的工资。
likes: -5
Vietnam economy already rock bottom. If this tariff hits it’s gonna be a bad time.
越南经济已经跌到谷底了。如果再来这么一出关税，那可就真要遭殃了。
likes: 3
What do you mean rock bottom? Vietnam had a 7.09% GDP growth for 2024 and already hit over $500 billion nominal GDP.
越南2024年的GDP增长率可是达到了7.09%，而且名义GDP也已经超过了5000亿美元。
likes: 1
Rock bottom is a bit too much, I would say the economy is not doing well.
跌至谷底也太夸张了吧，我觉得应该说经济不太景气。