QA问答：韩国经济会超越日本吗？

Paul Denlinger
No, it won’t.
At the time of writing in January 2025, the South Korean economy is in very bad shape for two reasons:
 
不，不会的。
截至2025年1月，韩国经济因以下两个原因处境非常糟糕：
 
1.China is South Korea’s largest trading partner, but South Korea’s ally, the US, wants South Korean companies such as Samsung, to stop selling electronics components and other goods to Chinese companies, using security as a reason. So South Korea must choose: Will South Korea sacrifice its own economic interests in order to satisfy its major ally, or will it continue selling goods to Chinese companies in order to keep its economy afloat?
 
中国是韩国最大的贸易伙伴，但韩国的盟友美国希望韩国公司（如三星）停止向中国公司出售电子元件和其他商品，理由是安全问题。因此，韩国必须做出选择：是为了讨好主要盟友牺牲自身的经济利益，还是继续向中国公司出售商品以保持经济运转？
 
2.There is a major political and constitutional crisis brewing over President Yoon and his attempt to declare martial law on 12/3/2024, which is paralyzing South Korean society. Major divisions are showing.
I believe the glory days of South Korea are over, and it will begin a long and slow economic slide.
 
2.关于尹总统试图在2024年12月3日宣布戒严，韩国正面临着一场重大的政治和宪法危机，这使得韩国社会陷入瘫痪，主要分歧逐渐显现。
我认为韩国的辉煌时代已经过去，它将开始一场漫长而缓慢的经济滑坡。
 
Japan is under the same pressure as South Korea from the US to take a strong stand against China, but the government is not nearly as divided as South Korea’s.
 
日本同样面临来自美国的压力，要求其对中国采取强硬立场，但日本政府的分歧远不如韩国严重。

Don Sillers
Based on the two countries' current position and recent growth rates, South Korea is likely to surpass Japan in terms of per capita GDP adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity before 2020. At 2011 PPP, South Korea's per capita GDP was about 9 percent lower than Japan's in 2013 - $32,684 vs $35,614. But South Korea's per capita GDP grew much faster than Japan's over the previous 10 years - 2.5% per year vs 0.5% per year. If those growth rates continue into the future, South Korea would overtake Japan on this measure in 2018.
Of course, this is simply a projection, not a prediction.
 
根据两国当前的位置和近期的增长率，韩国有可能在2020年前按购买力平价调整的人均GDP超过日本。根据2011年PPP数据，韩国的人均GDP在2013年比日本低约9％——32,684美元对35,614美元。但在过去10年中，韩国的人均GDP增长速度远远超过日本——每年增长2.5％，而日本每年增长0.5％。如果这些增长率持续下去，韩国在2018年就会在人均GDP上超过日本。
当然，这只是一个预测，而不是预言。
 
Haf Za
Very unlikely.
Their population is no where near the japanese population and to make matters worst, their birthrate is THE LOWEST in the world! Their Population is ageing and is getting smaller at a much faster rate than the Japanese.
Its going to take something close to a miracle for them to overtake the Japanese economy.
 
非常不可能。
他们的人口远远不及日本，而且更糟的是，他们的出生率是全球最低的！他们的人口在迅速老龄化，而且人口减少的速度远远超过日本。
他们要超越日本经济，几乎需要奇迹般的事情发生。
 
Garett James
Unlikely. They’re now both in population decline, but Japan has a bigger base population, and the fertility rate is higher, so there’s little likelihood that Korea can overtake it. If Korea suddenly doubled its productivity somehow, it could overtake Japan, or if it decided to accept immigration, it could overtake Japan, but it's not going to do either of those things. So the most likely outcome will be that it will decline relative to Japan / Japan will pull farther ahead over the next decade.
 
不太可能。现在两国都在经历人口下降，但日本的基础人口更大，生育率也更高，因此韩国超越日本的可能性很小。如果韩国能够以某种方式突然使生产力翻倍，或者如果它决定接受移民，可能有机会超过日本，但它不会做出这两种选择。所以最可能的结果是，韩国相对于日本将会下降，或者日本将在未来十年进一步拉开差距。
 
Masao Miwa
Possible, but I doubt it. Japan’s GDP is three times larger than South Korea and both are growing at roughly the same percentage rate close to zero. $5.06 trillion vs $1.63 trillion. (actually South Korea’s growth rate has been slightly negative over the last 3 years)
 
有可能，但我对此表示怀疑。日本的GDP是韩国的三倍，而且两国的增长率差不多，接近零。5.06万亿美元对1.63万亿美元。（实际上，韩国过去三年的增长率略有负增长）
 
Mark Bellamy
Both nations have similar access to resources and have similar intellectual talent and similar economies. The two are peers. Both are strong members of the American sphere of influence in the region and both are attached to the Western world and its trade. Both are members of the West.
So they will likely trade places over time as to who is on top but will be more or less the same in terms of economy and military power.
 
两国在资源获取、智力人才和经济方面都相似，属于同级别国家。两国都是美国在该地区影响力的重要成员，且都与西方世界及其贸易紧密相连。两国都是西方的成员。
所以，随着时间的推移，它们可能会交换位置，谁占据上风，但在经济和军事实力上将大致相同。
 
Ray Comeau
Thanks for request.
In theory anything is possible, however to accomplish this will require a huge of effort by South Korea and bad luck for Japan.
South Koreas economy is 1/3rd of Japans. However Japan’s population is old and declining. BY 2100 Japan’s population will be down to 50 million, a 60% drop from now.
 
感谢您的提问。
理论上，任何事情都是可能的，但要实现这一目标，韩国需要付出巨大的努力，而日本则需要遭遇不幸。
韩国的经济是日本的三分之一。然而，日本的老龄化问题严重，人口在下降。到2100年，日本的人口预计将下降到5000万，比现在减少60%。
 
South Korea’s population is also anticipated to decline over the century, and will still be small than Japan’s in 2100. That assumes there will be no huge immigration drive into South Korea, that could reverse the trend. If South Korea could do something like that, then maybe they can surpass Japan, but it will be exceptionally hard to do.
 
韩国的人口在这个世纪也预计会下降，到2100年仍然会比日本少。假设韩国没有大规模的移民潮来逆转这一趋势。如果韩国能够做到这一点，也许他们可以超过日本，但这将是极其困难的
 
Isla Perry
A Korean would love to say Japan's economy will crash, Korea will rise, and colonize Japan. Nope. Korea's economy won't catch up. The world changed. China entered, growth slowed. South Korea's GDP growth is 3%. Korea's population ages; the birth rate is low. Wages will soar; hiring will decline. North Korea's belligerence affects investors. Japan's population is bigger. Even with reunification, Japan's population surpasses Korea's. South Korea will be a shadow of Japan, half the size, unless reunification and reforms occur. Japan will stem decline. China will be the regional power. India will be close. South Korea and Japan will move closer to China. Chinese, English, Spanish, French, Japanese remain. More information about this subject is in my biography descxtion.
 
有些韩国人可能会喜欢说日本的经济会崩溃，韩国会崛起并殖民日本。但事实并非如此。韩国的经济赶不上日本。世界已经发生变化，中国崛起，增长放缓。韩国的GDP增长率为3%。韩国人口老龄化，出生率低。工资将飙升，招聘将减少。北朝鲜的敌对态度影响投资者。日本的人口更大。即使统一，日本的人口也会超过韩国。除非发生统一和改革，否则韩国将成为日本的影子，规模是日本的一半。日本将遏制人口下降，中国将成为地区大国，印度将紧随其后。韩国和日本将更加接近中国。中文、英语、西班牙语、法语和日语仍将存在。有关这个话题的更多信息可以在我的个人简介中找到。
 
Emi1
Why do you, the Korean anti-Japanese activists, always try to deprive anything from Japan? The Korean Peninsula was the most beneficiaries of Japanee investments and political reforms in the 20th century. The Koreans constantly denounce the Japanese, and demand on apologies and money, because the Japanese had been generous and provided them with a variety of things.
 
你们这些反日的韩国激进分子，为什么总是试图剥夺日本的一切？朝鲜半岛在20世纪是日本投资和政治改革的最大受益者。韩国人不断谴责日本，要求道歉和赔偿，因为日本曾慷慨地为他们提供了各种帮助。
 
The Koreans need to confront their true history, and to appreciate kindnesses from other countries. The selfishness and greed of them only deteriorate international relations. Since the economic conditions of South Korea improved up to the present, it ought to contribute more to developing countries and international organizations as Japan has been doing for a long time.
 
韩国人需要面对他们的真实历史，感恩他国的恩惠。他们的自私和贪婪只会恶化国际关系。由于韩国的经济状况已经改善，它应当像日本长期以来所做的那样，为发展中国家和国际组织做出更多贡献。
 
Howard
In terms of total GDP, it won’t be possible unless Japan really goes into bankruptcy like Greece. In terms of GDP per capita, its yes or not because South Korea already surpassed Japan in terms of GDP per capita and average wage at PPP. Depending on exchange rate, they may also surpass Japan in nominal term as they are not that far off anyway. Japan’s GDP per capita at nominal term is usually higher given that Japanese Yen is almost always stronger than Korean Won. If either Yen becomes depreciated to let say 125 yen/USD or Won becomes appreciated to let say 950 won/USD then their places will be changed. It really depends on exchange rate. But again, given that Japan has 2.5x~ population, they may not surpass in aggregate level.
 
从总GDP来看，除非日本真的像希腊一样破产，否则这是不可能的。从人均GDP来看，韩国已经在购买力平价下超越了日本，且平均工资也更高。根据汇率的变化，他们也可能在名义GDP上超过日本，因为两者差距并不大。日本的名义GDP人均通常较高，因为日元几乎总是比韩元更强。如果日元贬值到125日元/USD，或者韩元升值到950韩元/USD，那么它们的排名可能会发生变化。这真的取决于汇率。但再说一次，鉴于日本有2.5倍左右的人口，它们在总量上可能不会超过。
 
Allan Kay
I’m not so sure about that.
Toyota is to Japan as Samsung is to S. Korea. This question may have popped up as Toyota is going through a rough patch due to China’s competitive EV offsetting their sales. So don’t blow your horns just yet.
China may do a similar number on the micro chips which Samsung is dependent upon. When that happens, it’s back to square one.
 
我不太确定这一点。
丰田对日本来说，就像三星对韩国一样。这个问题可能是因为丰田目前由于中国竞争对手的电动汽车影响，销售出现了下滑。所以别急着吹嘘。
中国可能会在微芯片方面做出类似的影响，而三星正是依赖于此。一旦那样发生，经济可能会回到原点。
 
Sah Eerang
There is absolutely no possibility that South Korea can. South Korean economy is currently in decline. the degree of dependence upon foreign trade is almost 90% of its annaul GDP, which means it’s subject to global economic crisis. Plus, the only thing South Korea can beat Japan is Samsung’s semi-conductor industry. That means if semi-conductor industry is in decline, the economy would fall down. South Korea has a lot of corruption and defects behind its prosperity. Whereas, Japan has a very rigid, strong fundamental.
 
韩国完全没有可能。韩国经济目前正在衰退。其对外贸的依赖度几乎占其年GDP的90%，这意味着它容易受到全球经济危机的影响。而且，韩国能超越日本的唯一领域就是三星的半导体产业。这意味着如果半导体产业衰退，经济就会崩溃。韩国的繁荣背后有很多腐败和缺陷。而日本有着非常坚实的基础。
 
Bruce Hyland
Korea’s economy will probably never surpass China’s in size, but who cares? The point isn’t the size of an economy but what you do with it. Median wealth per capita is $119,999 in Japan, $93,141 in Korea and $28,258 in China. China might have the biggest economy, but where would you want to live?
 
韩国的经济可能永远无法超过中国的规模，但谁在乎呢？关键不在于经济的大小，而在于你如何利用它。日本的人均财富中位数为119,999美元，韩国为93,141美元，中国为28,258美元。中国可能拥有世界上最大的经济体，但你会想在哪儿生活？
 
Tay David
Both South Korea and Japan economy are in a limp because of their breakup bilateral trade with China.
Both countries are looking who will fail first. My opinion, South Korea economy is slightly better than Japan because the south has more manufacturing in China than Japan. Till today I feel both country’s leader do not know the different between creating a fruitful economy but choose starting a trade war that could cause more suffering towards their economy.
 
由于与中国的双边贸易破裂，韩国和日本的经济都处于停滞状态。两国都在看谁先失败。我的看法是，韩国的经济稍微优于日本，因为韩国在中国的制造业比日本多。直到今天，我觉得两国的领导人并不明白如何创造一个富有成果的经济，而是选择开启一场贸易战，这可能会导致更多的经济痛苦。
 
Seriously does this 2 countries have to fo everything in US favour? Does US really care what happen to theur economy? Just look at EU, the cost of living is going up for supporting US.
I wish all World leader know the important of building relationship that is important for their nation economy and its people. And not to favour isdue that may destroy your nation.
 
说实话，这两个国家真的需要事事迎合美国的利益吗？美国真的在乎它们的经济会怎样吗？看看欧盟，支持美国的代价就是生活成本上升。
我希望所有世界领导人都能明白，建立对本国经济和人民有利的关系的重要性，而不是迎合那些可能摧毁国家的议题。
 
Dang Yu'ang
I have to say it's a sad story.
Fourth generation nuclear power plant technology,
quantum communication technology,
ultra high voltage transmission technology,
supercomputer,
all superconducting tokamak nuclear fusion experimental device of the eastern superring,
synthetic life body (from compound to living DNA- protein), dark matter exploration,
top wind tunnel building technology…
I think we may have to redefine the word ‘most advanced’.

我不得不说这是一个悲伤的故事。
第四代核电技术，
量子通信技术，
超高压输电技术，
超级计算机，
东方超环的全超导托卡马克核聚变实验装置，
合成生命体（从化合物到活的DNA-蛋白质），暗物质探索，
顶级风洞建筑技术……
我认为我们可能需要重新定义“最先进”这个词。
 
Marshall A. Gittler
I think Mr. Kim’s Answer #4 is reason enough. If Japan has 2.5x the number of people than South Korea, then South Korea would have to have a per-capita income more than 2.5x that of Japan. Given that the two have similar per-capita incomes now ($38,100 for Japan and $36,600 for South Korea, according to the CIA Factbook, using purchasing power parity exchange rates) that means either Korea would somehow have to catapult up the league table to have the 4th highest per-capita income in the world, or Japan would have to see its standard of living collapse.
 
我认为金先生的回答第4条就足够说明问题。如果日本的人口是韩国的2.5倍，那么韩国的人均收入必须超过日本的2.5倍。根据CIA世界概况的数据显示，现如今两国的人均收入差不多（日本为38,100美元，韩国为36,600美元，按购买力平价汇率计算），这意味着韩国要么需要在全球人均收入排名中迅速跃升到第4位，要么日本的生活水平必须出现大幅下滑。
 
By the way, I wrote a long answer to the question “why did China surpass Japan as the 2nd largest economy?” The key point is, China grew to be the 2nd largest economy. It didn’t “eclipse” Japan. The reason the Chinese economy grew had nothing to do with any problems in Japan. If China “eclipsed” Japan as #2, then it also “eclipsed” Germany as #3, UK as #4, France as #5, etc. But nobody seems to think that’s due to any problems with Germany, UK or France. Japan’s economy is in OK shape — not great, but really no worse than most European economies.
 
顺便说一下，我曾经写过一篇长文，回答了“为什么中国超越日本成为第二大经济体？”的问题。关键点是，中国成为了第二大经济体，并不是因为日本出现了问题。如果中国“超越”了日本，那么它也“超越”了德国、英国、法国等其他国家，但没有人认为这是因为德国、英国或法国出现了问题。日本的经济状况还可以——虽然不算特别好，但也并不比大多数欧洲经济体差。
 
Daniel Kim
As a Korean, I would have loved to say “Yes! Japan’s economy is going to crash and Korea will rise above the rubble of Japan and laugh and colonize Japan this time around!”
But nope. Korea’s economy won’t catch up to Japan’s economy for a variety of reasons.
 
作为一个韩国人，我曾经很想说：“是的！日本的经济会崩溃，韩国将在日本的废墟上崛起，嘲笑并再次殖民日本！”
但事实并非如此。由于各种原因，韩国的经济不会赶上日本的经济。
 
The world has changed. Back when Japan began to see exponential economic growth, China was still closed off to the west and Europe was just beginning to recover. Now that China has entered the fray, the world economy is much more different as growth has slowed for most major developed nations like Japan and South Korea. Even the miraculous “Miracle on the Han” is slowing down now, with South Korea’s GDP growth estimated at a mere 3%.
 
世界已经发生了变化。早在日本开始经历指数级的经济增长时，中国还对西方封闭，欧洲刚刚开始复苏。现在，中国已经参与其中，全球经济发生了很大变化，像日本和韩国这样的大多数发达国家的增长都放缓了。甚至连韩国的“汉江奇迹”也在放缓，目前韩国的GDP增长率仅为3%。
 
Aging Population. Again, a large workforce is good because it provides flexibility for the economy. Unfortunately for Korea, the population is rapidly aging and the birth rate is one of the lowest in the world. That means wages are going to soar sky high and companies will be less inclined to hire people.
 
人口老龄化。再次强调，庞大的劳动力是有利的，因为它为经济提供了灵活性。不幸的是，韩国的人口正在迅速老龄化，出生率是世界上最低的之一。这意味着工资将飙升，企业也会减少雇佣员工的意愿。
 
North Korea. Say what? Yes, North Korea is also a factor into economic growth. Investors are sometimes hesitant to invest in South Korea due to North Korea’s belligerence. Research has shown that North Korea’s actions affect South Korean stocks on a daily basis. With the continued existence of North Korea and the looming threat of a bigger thing yet to come, investors will be less keen on investing in a potential future war zone.
 
朝鲜。怎么说？是的，朝鲜也是影响经济增长的一个因素。由于朝鲜的敌对行为，投资者有时对投资韩国持谨慎态度。研究表明，朝鲜的行动每天都会影响韩国股市。随着朝鲜的持续存在和未来可能发生更大事件的威胁，投资者对投资这个潜在的未来战争区将变得更加犹豫。
 
And the size of the population… Japan’s population is about 2.5 times bigger than South Korea’s (127 million to 51 million). Even if South Korea was reunited with North Korea, the population ratio would still be about 2:1 (127 million to 75 million). And if South Korea wants to catch Japan in GDP, that means it needs to have a better GDP per capita. Which is hard, since both nations have rather similar GDP per capita.
 
还有人口规模……日本的人口大约是韩国的2.5倍（1.27亿对5100万）。即使韩国与朝鲜统一，人口比例仍将约为2:1（1.27亿对7500万）。如果韩国想要赶超日本的GDP，这意味着它需要拥有更高的人均GDP。而这很困难，因为两国的人均GDP相差不大。
 
South Korea, at best, will be a shadow of Japan (ouch I hurt myself typing those words). It’ll be around half the size of Japan’s current GDP at best. Unless, of course, South Korea reunites with the North and goes through massive reforms and exploiting the various mineral resources and human resources of the north. Then the story might be a little different.
 
韩国充其量将是日本的影子（哎，我打这些字的时候感觉自己都受伤了）。最多也不过是日本当前GDP的一半。除非，当然，韩国与朝鲜统一，并进行大规模改革，利用朝鲜的各种矿产资源和人力资源。那么，情况可能会有所不同。
 
I don’t think Japan will fix its massive economic problem. At best, they’ll be able to stem the economic decline and hopefully push towards economic growth.
 
我认为日本不会解决其庞大的经济问题。最多，他们能够遏制经济衰退，并希望能够推动经济增长。
 
For the future of East Asia, I think China will be the regional power hands down. Biggest military, biggest economy, and biggest population. India will definitely be a close second or an obstacle to China. South Korea and Japan will most likely be moving closer to China in the future whether they want to or not due to pure economical reasons.
As for language… It still remains the same. Chinese, English, Spanish, French, Japanese, etc.
 
至于东亚的未来，我认为中国将毫无疑问地成为地区大国。最大的军力，最大的经济体，和最大的人口。印度肯定会紧随其后，或者成为中国的障碍。韩国和日本很可能会因为纯粹的经济原因，在未来不论是否愿意，都逐渐向中国靠拢。
至于语言……它仍然保持不变。中文、英语、西班牙语、法语、日语等等。