网友讨论：哪个亚洲国家将成为下一个发达国家？
Which Asian country will be the next developed country?
译文简介
网友：有几十个国家正在经历这个过程。这个过程会持续几十年。这不是3到5年内能完成的事情。许多中美洲、南美洲和加勒比海岛屿国家已经相当发达。甚至所谓的发达国家也在持续发展。这个过程是永无止境的。
正文翻译
Hajo Mueller
Dozens of countries are in this very process. The very process continues for decades. It is not something which can be done in a short period like 3– 5 years. Many central and South American countries and carrebean Island are pretty developed already. Even the so called developed countries are still developing. The process is never ending.
有几十个国家正在经历这个过程。这个过程会持续几十年。这不是3到5年内能完成的事情。许多中美洲、南美洲和加勒比海岛屿国家已经相当发达。甚至所谓的发达国家也在持续发展。这个过程是永无止境的。
Dozens of countries are in this very process. The very process continues for decades. It is not something which can be done in a short period like 3– 5 years. Many central and South American countries and carrebean Island are pretty developed already. Even the so called developed countries are still developing. The process is never ending.
有几十个国家正在经历这个过程。这个过程会持续几十年。这不是3到5年内能完成的事情。许多中美洲、南美洲和加勒比海岛屿国家已经相当发达。甚至所谓的发达国家也在持续发展。这个过程是永无止境的。
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Trying to become a developed country is like chasing after the wind.
Apart from the Western countries, and maybe Japan (that has been a developed country for quite a long time), no more members will be accepted by the so called developed world into this club.
试图成为一个发达国家就像是在追逐风一样。
除了西方国家，也许还有日本（日本已经是发达国家很长时间了），所谓的发达世界不会再接受其他国家加入这个俱乐部。
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我之所以这么说，是因为发达国家不断改变“标准”，关于什么构成一个发达国家。有时候他们会说，当一个国家的人均收入达到12,000美元时，就是发达国家。其他时候，他们说是15,000美元，我也曾在某处看到说是25,000美元到30,000美元之间。
Well, the reason is simple. They do not want to commit themselves by defining it, else some countries that they really do not want to see as developed countries will one day reach the figure and demand to be recognized as developed.
现在你会同意我说的，定义什么是发达国家并不复杂，那为什么西方经济学家还在玩这种“猫鼠游戏”，不愿明确规定呢？
其实原因很简单。他们不想通过定义来表态，否则有些他们不希望看到成为发达国家的国家，可能有一天达到这个标准并要求被承认为发达国家。
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You see, the table above shows the IMF’s GDP per capita figures of some well known countries like Hong Kong (GDP=429), Spain (GDP=396), Turkey (GDP=497), Italy (GDP=804), Ireland (GDP=684) and Portugal (GDP=358) in the year 1960.
Now on the right side of the table, you will realize that when these figures are adjusted to 2018 prices, the GDP per capita ranged between $2990 and $6700
你看，上表展示了1960年一些知名国家/地区的IMF人均GDP数据，比如香港（特区）（GDP=429）、西班牙（GDP=396）、土耳其（GDP=497）、意大利（GDP=804）、爱尔兰（GDP=684）和葡萄牙（GDP=358）。
现在，在表格的右侧，你会发现，当这些数据调整为2018年价格后，这些国家的人均GDP在2990美元到6700美元之间。
You will see that the African countries are currently similar and in some cases even at a higher GDP per capita than the European countries shown above were around 1960.
现在将这些数据与一些非洲国家进行比较，这些非洲国家当前的人均GDP稍低于上述欧洲国家。你会注意到，非洲国家的人均GDP范围在3500美元到16300美元之间。
你会发现，非洲国家目前的人均GDP与1960年时上述欧洲国家的水平相似，甚至在某些情况下，非洲国家的人均GDP还高于这些欧洲国家当时的水平。
即使在人均GDP相同（调整为通货膨胀后的水平），当时没有人称这些欧洲国家为贫困或欠发达国家，但今天，人们却将那些人均GDP甚至高于1960年时欧洲国家的非洲国家称为欠发达国家。
Even if a country achieves the set amount of $12,000, $15,000 or $25,000 gdp, unless you are on the good side of the developed Western countries, they will never accept you as developed. They will employ another criteria like “lack of proper democracy”, to deny the new entrant the status of a developed country.
所以个人认为，在认定哪些国家是发达国家时，政治、经济和地理因素的交织起到了作用。
即使一个国家达到了设定的12,000美元、15,000美元或25,000美元的GDP水平，除非你站在发达西方国家的一方，否则他们永远不会接受你为发达国家。他们会采用另一个标准，比如“缺乏真正的民主”，来否认新进入国家的发达国家地位。
Probably not china since it probably already is developed depending on what metrics you use. But in some things like in postal rates and CO2 emissions limits it claims that it is still developing. A little dishonest IMHO but it works and they get an advantage
Probably one of the ASEAN countries.
可能不是中国，因为根据你使用的指标，它可能已经是发达国家。但在一些方面，比如邮政费率和二氧化碳排放限额，中国声称自己仍在发展中。依我看这有点不太诚实，但这样做确实有效，且能获得一些优势。
可能是某个东盟国家。
Both Russia and Kazakhstan have the potential, and would require little more than a bit of political change, along with the arrest and incarnation of a few thousand gangster / croni-Capatalists, followed by a few years of the rule of law, to allow the territories to step over the OECD line. Then again the necessary political change isn't likely for decades.
俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦有潜力，只需要一些政治上的变革，以及逮捕和关押几千个黑帮/权贵资本家，再加上几年法治的实施，就可以让这些地区迈过OECD的门槛。再说，所需的政治变革可能几十年内都不会发生。
Please don't answer with how HDI is a degrading statistic, that people's happiness matters more than economic development, or the sort. That can be true, but that isn't the question. Thank you.
Argentina would be already classified as a developed country if its mortality and birth rates were lower. The day it improves these indicators, it will be (finally!) considered a developed.
Chile is another strong candidate for the title.
请不要回答说人类发展指数（HDI）是一个贬低性的统计数字，人们的幸福感比经济发展更重要之类的话。这可能是对的，但这不是问题的核心。谢谢。
如果阿根廷的死亡率和出生率更低，它现在已经可以被归类为发达国家了。当它改善这些指标时，它将（终于！）被认为是发达国家。
智利是另一个有力的候选者。
This is a good question.
Off the top of my head, I am going to say China, as there's is the government that, despite not following universal democratic principles, is actually playing an effective role in its economic development thanks to the power and control it has over the country.
The rest of Northeast Asia is already developed in my opinion. South Asia is so far behind that it is out of contention, and Southeast Asia is plagued by corrupt and incompetent governments.
这是一个很好的问题。
我想到的第一个国家是中国，因为尽管中国没有遵循普遍的民主原则，但凭借其对国家的控制和权力，它在经济发展方面实际上发挥了有效作用。
我认为东北亚的其他地区已经是发达国家。南亚远远落后，已不在竞争之列，而东南亚则受到腐败和无能政府的困扰。
China and Malaysia come to mind straight away, China has a HDI of 0.752 and a PPP Per Capita of $19,000+ while Malaysia has a HDI of 0.802 and a PPP Per Capita of $32,501.
The minimum threshold for a developed country is a PPP Per Capita of $25,000 and a HDI above 0.800 with strong industrial capacity, China fulfils one of the criteria and is close to achieving the other two while Malaysia fulfils two of the criteria and is close to achieving the last one being a strong industrial capacity.
The Gulf nations especially UAE should be considered as well and India and Vietnam hold a lot of potential as well.
中国和马来西亚立刻浮现在脑海中，中国的人类发展指数（HDI）为0.752，购买力平价人均收入（PPP Per Capita）超过19,000美元，而马来西亚的人类发展指数为0.802，购买力平价人均收入为32,501美元。
发达国家的最低标准是购买力平价人均收入达到25,000美元以上，且人类发展指数超过0.800，并具备强大的工业能力，中国符合其中一项标准，并接近达成其他两项标准，而马来西亚符合两项标准，且接近达到最后一项——强大的工业能力。
海湾国家，特别是阿联酋，也应当考虑在内，印度和越南也有很大潜力。
Malaysia and Vietnam are the best candidates in Southeast Asia. Malaysia is almost a developed country but with some parts very poor compared with Brunei and Singapore and Vietnam is starting the trip to be the next developed country in Southeast Asia and in West Asia Jordan and Turkey ad in Central Asia Kazakhstan and in a future if the country become less corrupt Turkmenistan (Gas and Oil few population and the Broker between Iran and Russia
I go for Malaysia ,Turkey and Kazakhstan
马来西亚和越南是东南亚最好的候选者。马来西亚几乎是发达国家，但与文莱和新加坡相比，部分地区仍然非常贫困；越南则开始迈向成为东南亚下一个发达国家的道路；在西亚，约旦和土耳其，在中亚，哈萨克斯坦以及未来如果该国腐败减少，土库曼斯坦（天然气和石油丰富、人口少且是伊朗与俄罗斯之间的中介国）也有潜力。
我选择马来西亚、土耳其和哈萨克斯坦。
I think China will be the next developed country.
China still has a lot of potential to be played out. If you have been to the western part of China, you will find that it is sparsely populated and relatively backward.
我认为中国将成为下一个发达国家。
中国仍有很大的潜力有待发挥。如果你去过中国的西部，你会发现那里人口稀少，相对落后。
However,Infrastructure, public security, e-commerce, shared economy, China has in many ways not worse than the developed countries, but there are many deficiencies, such as pollution and average income.
So, I don't think China is doing well in all aspects, but at least in the developing countries of Asia, it is the most promising to become a developed country.
当然，印度的问题更为严重。
但是，在基础设施、公共安全、电子商务、共享经济等方面，中国在很多方面并不比发达国家差，但也存在很多不足，比如污染和人均收入。
所以，我不认为中国在各个方面都做得很好，但至少在亚洲的发展中国家，它是最有希望成为发达国家的。
Probably Malaysia. Thailand is going backwards at the moment. In my opinion there are 2 things that might turn this around. 1. If next Feb. the military junta doesn’t delay the election again and Thanathorn gets elected it might get better. 2. If China goes from covertly to overtly taking over Thailand and they can help it develop.
可能是马来西亚。目前泰国在倒退。我认为有两件事可能会扭转这种局面。1. 如果明年2月军政府没有再次推迟选举，并且塔纳通当选，情况可能会变得更好。2. 如果中国从隐性地转为显性地接管泰国，并且能够帮助泰国发展。
There are quite a number of countries in Asia that are already developed countries, Singapore is one of them. Malaysia will be the country that has the greatest potential to become a developed country in Asia outside those countries. India also has the potential, but the path they took currently are not close enough to become developed.
亚洲已经有相当多的发达国家，新加坡就是其中之一。马来西亚将在这些国家之外，成为最具潜力成为发达国家的亚洲国家。印度也有潜力，但目前他们所采取的发展道路距离成为发达国家还不够接近。
I would say Chile.
According to the latest Human Development Index, which measures the state of development of a country based on education, health, and income per capita of its citizens, Chile ranked 35th, better than some developed countries in the EU such as Portugal and Slovakia.
Based on GDP per capita, they have also done quite well, where they successfully attained a similar level to several EU countries such as Croatia.
我会说是智利。
根据最新的人类发展指数（HDI），该指数衡量一个国家在教育、健康和人均收入等方面的发展状况，智利排名第35位，超过了一些欧盟发达国家，如葡萄牙和斯洛伐克。
根据人均GDP，他们也表现得相当不错，成功达到了与一些欧盟国家如克罗地亚相似的水平。
The combination of relatively excellent educational attainment and health, moderately high income per capita, and good governance makes Chile just one step more from becoming a developed country.
智利在腐败问题上也相对干净。在最新的腐败感知指数中，他们排名第26位，明显优于一些成熟的欧洲国家，如西班牙和意大利。
相对较高的教育水平和健康状况、中等偏上的人均收入以及良好的治理，使得智利距离成为发达国家仅差一步。
I don’t know but I expect that China, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea, Saudi Arabia and Turkey to become the newly developed nations, although it depends heavily on how these governments will go through.
我不确定，但我预计中国、马来西亚、泰国、韩国、沙特阿拉伯和土耳其将成为新的发达国家，尽管这在很大程度上取决于这些政府如何应对未来的挑战。
中国自1978年以来一直按照相同的改革结构进行发展，但最近对名人、大型公司和其他私营行业的打压使这一前景变得不确定。不过，中国经济规模庞大，且至关重要，因此我看不出为什么中国不会成为新的发达国家。
土耳其有些不幸，因为该国由一位DC者统治，他认为降低利率将创造经济繁荣。然而，截至2021年，土耳其的经济正受到近60%高通胀率的困扰。埃尔多安最近解雇了央行行长，但拒绝提高利率，因此除非埃尔多安发生重大健康问题，否则土耳其不太可能复苏。
Malaysia also has huge potential but it will need to break away from the middle-income trap. Thailand is also the same in this issue. These nations have largely exposed their weaknesses on managing microeconomies.
韩国的前景最为光明，因为该国拥有高科技产业和相对熟练的劳动力。此外，韩国人对待工作的态度也非常认真。
马来西亚也有巨大的潜力，但它需要突破中等收入陷阱。泰国在这方面也面临同样的问题。这些国家在管理微观经济方面暴露了很大的弱点。
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沙特阿拉伯足够富裕，拥有丰富的石油资源，有潜力成为一个重要的经济强国，但沙特阿拉伯的问题在于缺乏熟练的劳动力，且其经济在海湾国家中是最不多样化的。此外，沙特的极权主义和广泛的打压措施使商界人士感到困惑。沙特阿拉伯曾试图举办大型国际体育赛事以粉饰形象，但由于沙特人不愿意学习如何工作，且担心政府干预，这并未能吸引更多的投资者。阿尔沙特家族并不以宽容对待商业事务而著称。
其他有潜力崛起成为下一个“亚洲四小龙”的国家包括斯里兰卡、阿曼、约旦、印度、印尼、阿塞拜疆、菲律宾、越南、巴基斯坦、哈萨克斯坦和孟加拉国，但这将需要时间。
My guess?
Not being biased here. Only two candidates. Malaysia and China.
Both are industrialized countries. Both have the human and natural resources to make it happen in the next 10 years. They have internal problems that need to be addressed but barring war and economic collapse, i see it happening.
我的猜测？
我并不是有偏见。只有两个候选国——马来西亚和中国。
这两个国家都是工业化的国家，都拥有足够的人力和自然资源，在未来10年内实现这一目标。它们都面临需要解决的内部问题，但如果不发生战争或经济崩溃，我认为这是可能实现的。
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像泰国、印度尼西亚和越南这样的国家也是非常有潜力的候选国。但它们近年来的轨迹有所受限。政治稳定性很重要（注意，我说的是稳定性，而不是问责制）。
Asia is a pretty exciting place to be right now
但这是我的一点看法。整体来说，亚洲将在未来10年经历一场经济繁荣。几乎每个国家都会得到提升。战争不会太多（几次爆炸不会妨碍人们），内部政治局势相对可预测，商业环境友好，区域物流和交通整合，法规逐步简化。
现在，亚洲是一个非常令人兴奋的地方。