既然没有任何文明能够永存，你认为美国还能存在多久，最终加拿大将对其衰落负责？

Marie E. LeBlanc
l definitely see the U.S. collapsing into an unending pile of chaos and violence, brought on by voting a Racist, Sexist, Misogynistic, Con Man, Liar, Thief into Power - TWICE! Since Canadians can’t actually vote in the U.S., I fail to see why the most politically, socially and morally corrupt Western country on the planet, can actually blame Canada for its own stupidity.
 
我确实看到了美国最终陷入无休止的混乱和暴力，原因是选举了一个种族主义、性别歧视、厌女症、骗子、说谎者、盗贼的人当上了总统——而且是两次！既然加拿大人不能在美国投票，我不明白为什么这个世界上最政治、社会和道德腐化的西方国家，居然能将自己的愚蠢归咎于加拿大。
 
On Demand Reporter
Based on factors like economic inequality, political polarization, and environmental challenges, the United States could face significant internal pressures that could lead to a decline in its global influence. If these pressures persist, it's conceivable that Canada, with its relatively stable political system and strong international relations, might play a role in helping the U.S. navigate these challenges and potentially transition towards a more cooperative and inclusive model of governance. However, such a scenario would require a complex interplay of factors, including a willingness on both sides to engage in constructive dialogue and collaboration.
 
基于经济不平等、政治极化和环境挑战等因素，美国可能会面临巨大的内部压力，这可能导致其全球影响力的衰退。如果这些压力持续存在，考虑到加拿大相对稳定的政治体系和强大的国际关系，加拿大可能在帮助美国应对这些挑战以及可能向更具合作性和包容性的治理模式过渡方面发挥作用。然而，这样的情景需要复杂的因素相互作用，包括双方愿意开展建设性对话与合作。
 
Daniella Fromage
Australia will have very little, if any responsibility for the downfall of the U.S. I have no idea when that will happen, but it certainly could at some point. The same can be said for all other countries.
 
澳大利亚对美国衰落几乎不会有什么责任，我不知道这什么时候会发生，但的确有可能在某个时刻发生。其他国家也可以说同样的事情。
 
Bengt Lindvall
“The Roman Empire was one of the greatest and most influential civilisations in the world and lasted for over a 1000 years. The extent and length of their reign has made it hard to trace their rise to power and their fall.”The USA may be approaching the end of its hegemony but the downfall and end is still not in sight, at least not =in such a way that it can be pinned to a calendar.
China has been great and shows signs of … your guess.
 
“罗马帝国曾是世界上最伟大、最有影响力的文明之一，持续了超过1000年。它的统治范围和时间长久，使得追溯其崛起和衰落变得困难。” 美国可能正在接近其霸权的终结，但衰落和结束仍然不在眼前，至少目前没有以某种可以标记在日历上的方式来体现。中国曾经辉煌，现在也有迹象表明……你猜怎么着。
 
Keith McLennan
I really don’t know how Australia would come into it, but I would have to say that the Australian record of predictions and pronouncements on the matter has not been very successful so far. I say this on the basis that Alan Seymour, author of The Coming Self-Destruction of the USA, was an Australian.
 
我真的不明白澳大利亚会如何参与其中，但我不得不说，澳大利亚在这方面的预测和声明迄今为止并不成功。我这么说是因为，澳大利亚人艾伦·西摩（Alan Seymour）曾写过一本《美国的自我毁灭将至》（The Coming Self-Destruction of the USA）。
 
The tome was published in 1969, when Seymour was 42. He died in 2015 at the ripe old age of 87, so he saw the collapse of the Soviet unx and the abandonment of Maoism in China. He would have been better off predicting those signal events, but it seems they never crossed his mental horizon.
 
这本书于1969年出版，当时西摩42岁。他于2015年去世，享年87岁，所以他看到了苏联的解体和中国放弃毛主义。他本应该预测这些重要事件，但似乎它们从未出现在他的思维范围内。
 
The late Brian W. Aldiss lived for even longer, dying in 2017 at the age of 92. His tribute to Seymour’s tome as “the likeliest novel of the year” was hardly among the highlights of his career. Perhaps he should have stuck to science fiction.
 
已故的布莱恩·W·阿尔迪斯（Brian W. Aldiss）活得更久，直到2017年以92岁高龄去世。他对西摩的著作给予的评价——“这一年最受喜爱的小说”——显然不是他职业生涯的亮点。也许他该更专注于科幻小说。

Danielle
Canada will have nothing to do to trigger the downfall. The downfall will come from inside the USA The USA is rapidly doing back to the “gilded age” of the 1890s or so where corporate monopolies ran wild. Which will either end with the USA breaking up into about 6 nations or have a social revolution that will start off with a lot of billionaires in front of a firing squad.
 
加拿大不会在美国的衰退中起到触发作用。衰退将来自美国内部。美国正迅速回到19世纪90年代的“黄金时代”，那时企业垄断肆意横行。这可能最终导致美国分裂成大约六个国家，或者爆发一场社会革命，革命开始时会有很多亿万富翁站在枪决队前。
 
If the USA breaks up, Canada will not accept offers from any of them to merge with Canada. We will accept them as trading partners but we do not want their territory.
All Canada is going to have to do with the downfall is to set a better example of how to run a more egalitarian society. Not a perfect example though as we know Canada is not perfect.
 
如果美国真的分裂，加拿大不会接受任何美国新国家与加拿大合并的提议。我们会接受它们作为贸易伙伴，但我们不希望接纳它们的领土。
加拿大在美国衰退中唯一需要做的，就是为如何经营一个更平等的社会提供一个更好的榜样。当然，这并非完美的榜样，因为我们知道加拿大也并不完美。
 
Himanshu Chaudhary
Possible causes of a societal collapse include natural catastrophe, war, pestilence, famine, economic collapse, population decline or overshoot, mass migration, incompetent leaders, and sabotage by rival civilizations.
According to the study's models, maintaining current rates of population growth and deforestation would mean we have a less than 10 percent chance of avoiding “an irreversible collapse of our civilization” within just a few decades.
 
社会崩溃的可能原因包括自然灾难、战争、瘟疫、饥荒、经济崩溃、人口下降或过度、人大规模迁移、无能的领导人，以及来自竞争文明的破坏行为。 根据该研究的模型，如果维持当前的人口增长和森林砍伐速度，未来几十年内我们避免“我们文明的不可逆崩溃”的机会不到10%。
 
Grant Arthurs
REALLY!? Tell me how you think Canada will be responsible for the downfall of the USA! The USA and Canada are joined at the hip. If there is a downfall of one, it is most likely they both will go. But I highly doubt we will see it in this generation!
 
真的吗！？告诉我，为什么你认为加拿大会对美国的衰退负责！美国和加拿大是休戚与共的。如果一个国家崩溃，另一个很可能也会随之崩溃。但我非常怀疑我们这一代人会看到这种情况！
 
Ruqquiya Razaki
y America’s rebirth as a parliamentary democracy based off of the Canadian constitution?
Predicting the precise duration of any civilization is speculative, and attributing such a transformation to Canada is even more so. The U.S. has proven resilient, making specific forecasts about its future and potential constitutional shifts highly uncertain.
 
美国是否会像加拿大那样，重新诞生为基于加拿大宪法的议会制民主？ 预测任何文明的持续时间都具有很大的不确定性，尤其是将这种转变归因于加拿大。美国已经证明了它的韧性，因此对其未来及潜在的宪法变化做出具体预测是高度不确定的。
 
Mansha Sharma
Humanity has a 95% probability of being extinct in 7,800,000 years, according to J. Richard Gott's formulation of the controversial doomsday argument, which argues that we have probably
 
根据J. Richard Gott的争议性“末日论”模型，人类在780万年内有95%的概率会灭绝。该论点认为，我们很可能…
 
On Demand Reporter
While the United States has demonstrated resilience and adaptability throughout its history, it is not immune to the challenges faced by other civilizations. Factors such as growing inequality, political polarization, and climate change pose significant threats to its long-term viability. As for Canada's role, while it is a stable and prosperous nation, it is unlikely to be solely responsible for the downfall of the United States. The decline of a civilization is typically a multifaceted process involving internal and external factors.
 
虽然美国在历史上展示了韧性和适应能力，但它并不免于其他文明所面临的挑战。日益加剧的不平等、政治两极化和气候变化等因素，对美国的长期生存构成了重大威胁。至于加拿大的角色，尽管它是一个稳定和繁荣的国家，但它不太可能单独导致美国的衰退。一个文明的衰落通常是一个涉及内部和外部因素的多面过程。
 
Geoff Stimpson
I don't see a collapse and reinvention of the US anytime soon. I do see a continued decline as Americans grow less and less satisfied by the role of elites (ie the rich and noisy fringe groups) in controlling government policy from both parties.
 
我不认为美国会在短期内崩溃并重新塑造自己。我确实看到的是美国的持续衰退，因为美国人越来越不满精英阶层（即富人和喧闹的极端群体）在控制两党政府政策中的作用。
 
The end result is likely to be a series of populist dictators (like Putin) posing as freely elected leaders. Democracy is usually fragile and short lived. Athens had democracy for less than a century, and its democracy was no better than US democracy in the 18th century (only white men had a vote within a system designed to protect the wealthy). Much of the US didn't have democracy for all until the 1960s, and places like Canada and Switzerland didn't treat all citizens as equal at election time until the same time or later. If we claim everyone has an equal right to citizenship and every citizen has an equal vote on election day, democracy is a rare thing indeed.
 
最终的结果可能是出现一系列民粹主义独裁者（像普京一样），这些人伪装成自由选举产生的领导人。民主通常是脆弱且短暂的。雅典的民主持续不到一个世纪，而且它的民主并不比18世纪美国的民主好（只有白人男性有选举权，在一个旨在保护富人的体制下）。直到1960年代，很多地方的美国都没有实现全民民主，而像加拿大和瑞士等地方直到那时或更晚才在选举时平等对待所有公民。如果我们声称每个人都有平等的公民权利，每个公民在选举日都有平等的投票权，那么民主实际上是非常罕见的。
 
I don't see the US turning to a UK/Canadian parliamentary system (it needs a powerless king or queen), but into more of Russian system where the elected president has enough levers to turn the legislative and judicial branches into a rubber stamp while control of the media, association, and the economy is solid enough to eliminate the dissent necessary for real democracy and while rewriting pesky term limits out of the constitution. Oligarchy under a strong leader is unfortunately the default for civilizations, and that is likely where the US is headed in the next few decades.
 
我不认为美国会转向像英国/加拿大的议会制系统（它需要一个无权的国王或女王），而更可能变成类似俄罗斯的体制——在这种体制下，民选总统拥有足够的杠杆，将立法和司法部门变成橡皮图章，同时控制媒体、社交和经济，足以消除真正民主所需的异议，同时将麻烦的任期限制从宪法中删去。强力领导下的寡头政治不幸地是文明的默认状态，我认为美国在未来几十年可能会走向这样的结局。
 
Brenton Harding
The Roman Empire took about five centuries to decline and fall.
For about 80 years the American empire has been in decline despite the belief of many Americans that the U.S. is the greatest country on Earth. Most Americans ignore or deny the decline.
 
罗马帝国经历了大约五个世纪的衰退与灭亡。
尽管许多美国人认为美国是世界上最伟大的国家，但美国的衰退已经持续了大约80年。大多数美国人忽视或否认这种衰退。
 
An important question is can anything be done to slow or reverse the American decline? The answer is probably ‘no,’ certainly not with the current, widely held belief in American greatness.
Currently, the U.S. is about second-world level, that of a developing country teetering on third-world status. In perhaps another 50 to 75 years the U.S. will reach third-world status.
 
一个重要的问题是，是否有什么办法可以减缓或扭转美国的衰退？答案可能是“没有”，特别是当下广泛存在的对美国伟大信仰之下，几乎不可能有所改变。
目前，美国大约处于二流国家的水平，类似于一个处于第三世界状态的正在发展中的国家。可能再过50到75年，美国将进入第三世界状态。
 
America’s decline has nothing whatsoever to do with Canada! Americans will have accomplished this all on their own.
By the way, lest Americans think that Donny Trump is their saviour, he is not. “Make America Great Again” is just the reuse of a Reagan-era election slogan. Trump really thinks America is just fine but that doesn’t get votes.
Even if Trump did see America’s decline, he has absolutely no idea how to change it.
 
美国的衰退与加拿大毫无关系！美国人将完全独立完成这一切。
顺便说一下，若美国人认为特朗普是他们的救世主，那就错了。“让美国再次伟大”不过是复用了里根时代的选举口号。特朗普真以为美国没问题，但这并不足以赢得选票。
即使特朗普意识到美国的衰退，他也完全没有改变这种状况的办法。
 
John Mcewen
It depends what you call civilization, all societies change and cultures change. If you are talking simple comtinuity. The Byzantines lasted 1000 years, the English have not been successfully invaded in 1000 years. THe US is rather isolated from potential adversaries, occupies one of the three opptimal climate niches on the planet, and even with significant climate change will continue to control most of it. Has the resources of half a continent. Its only major threat would be to become isolated from some factor controling the rest of the world or more possible self destruction. Even if Canada continues to grow and even with climate change Canada is never likely to have a greater population than 1/3 that of the US and therefore will never be a threat.
 
这取决于你如何定义“文明”，所有社会和文化都会变化。如果你指的是简单的延续性，那么拜占庭帝国持续了1000年，英格兰在过去1000年里没有成功被入侵。美国相对孤立，远离潜在的敌人，位于地球上三大最优气候区之一，即便在气候变化的影响下，依然会控制大部分土地。美国拥有半个大陆的资源。它唯一的主要威胁可能是变得孤立，失去对全球某些关键因素的控制，或者更可能的是自我毁灭。即便加拿大继续增长，气候变化下，加拿大的总人口也永远不会超过美国的三分之一，因此永远不可能成为威胁。
 
Vinay Sharma
Forecasting the Future — A Hard Thing to Do
Disclaimer: Predicting the scenarios under which civilizational futures unfold is no mean feat, especially given their complex and multi-variate nature of being a confluence political-economic-social-environmental axes. It is no more than speculative to seek a definitive answer.

预测未来——这是一件非常难的事
免责声明：预测文明未来的发展情境并非易事，尤其是考虑到它们在政治、经济、社会和环境多个维度交织的复杂性。寻求一个确切的答案本身就是一种推测。
 
The Rise and Fall of Empires
Empires come and go, that is a fact of human history. These are commonly expressed as internal divisions, economic instability (in some interpretations unserviceable debt leads to duation of the currency), external threats or cultural changes. No human civilization is eternal — though it's difficult to say exactly when old hands will finally let the reins slip, there are patterns in history.
 
帝国的兴衰
帝国来来去去，这是人类历史的事实。它们通常表现为内部的分裂、经济的不稳定（有些解释认为无法偿还的债务会导致货币贬值）、外部威胁或文化变革。没有任何人类文明是永恒的——虽然很难准确预测老牌帝国什么时候会最终松手，但历史中确实存在一些模式。
 
US, Australia
The United States and Australia are two young nations that begin with what is for the most part a lock on freedom. But no nation is even close to immune. Climate change, economic injustice, political division or a changing balance of power around the world could all spell problems for their enduring success.
 
美国与澳大利亚
美国和澳大利亚都是年轻的国家，拥有在很大程度上保障自由的制度。但没有任何国家能够免于风险。气候变化、经济不公、政治分裂或全球力量平衡的变化都可能成为影响这两个国家持久成功的挑战。
 
The Example of Australia — Is this a Model for the US?
Nice also is the observation that when it comes to policy Australia could be a model for the US. The countries both speak English, they follow a common legal system and Australia has a long democratic history. Nevertheless, it is also worth considering that such measures should be contextualised in the respective history and culture of each nation.
 
澳大利亚的例子——是否可以成为美国的榜样
有一个值得注意的观点是，澳大利亚的政策在某些方面可能可以成为美国的榜样。两个国家都讲英语，遵循相似的法律体系，且澳大利亚拥有悠久的民主历史。然而，同样需要考虑的是，这些措施应当根据各国的历史和文化背景来加以理解和应用。
 
Conclusion
While no one can predict the exact future of two nations as they evolve and interact globally, there are a few things that some in Australia would do well to note about its ally. It's intriguing to think that Australia might have a part in the future of America, but if so, it is likely approach as such speculation should be taken with caution.
 
结论
虽然没有人能够预测这两个国家在全球互动中发展的确切未来，但澳大利亚的某些人应该注意到其盟友美国的情况。考虑到澳大利亚可能在美国未来中的角色，这是一个值得深思的问题，但如果真的存在这种可能性，那么这种猜测应当谨慎对待。
 
Elliott J. Schuchardt
The United States economy is based on a flawed economic model.
That economic model could cause the currency to collapse, dooming the current American government.
At this time, 75% of the United States economy is consumption. If you live in the United States, look around you. What do you see? Shopping malls, chain restaurants, gas stations, highways — from coast to coast. All of these are evidence of the United States business model — consumption of the world’s goods from coast to coast.
 
美国经济基于一个有缺陷的经济模型
这种经济模型可能导致货币崩溃，从而让现有的美国政府陷入困境。
目前，美国经济的75%依赖于消费。如果你生活在美国，看看四周，你会看到什么？购物中心、连锁餐厅、加油站、高速公路——从东海岸到西海岸，所有这些都是美国商业模式的体现——即全国范围内对世界商品的消费。
 
How is this possible?
It’s possible because the United States — temporarily — has a monopoly on the sale of oil from the Middle East. Virtually all of that oil is sold only for United States dollars.
Thus, if you are in Vietnam and need oil for your economy, you have to first trade goods to the United States to get dollars. Only then can you purchase oil from the Middle East. This transaction costs the Americans nothing. They simply print the dollars, and get the Vietnamese goods for free.
 
这是怎么可能的？
这是可能的，因为美国暂时在中东石油的销售上拥有垄断地位。几乎所有的石油交易都是以美元进行的。
因此，如果你在越南，并且需要石油来支持你的经济，你必须先将商品交换成美元，才能购买中东的石油。这个交易美国不会花费任何成本。美国只是印刷美元，然后拿到越南的商品，相当于“免费”得到了这些商品。
 
If the Middle East oil markets reject the dollar — and price oil in a currency other than dollars — then demand for the dollar will collapse overnight.
How far will the dollar fall? Well, about half of the demand for the dollar is for oil from the Middle East. Thus, the dollar could easily fall 50%.
If the dollar drops 50%, then prices in the United States will double overnight. This includes gasoline. If the dollar drops 80%, then the price of gasoline goes up 500% — or to $16 per gallon.
 
如果中东石油市场拒绝美元——以其他货币定价石油——那么美元的需求会在一夜之间崩溃。
美元会贬值多少？大约有一半的美元需求是来自中东石油。因此，美元可能会轻易贬值50%。
如果美元贬值50%，那么美国的物价将会在一夜之间翻倍。包括汽油。如果美元贬值80%，那么汽油价格将上涨500%——即每加仑16美元。
 
See where I am going with this?
If the dollar collapses, the U.S. economy collapses with it. The United States will no longer have the ability to import or consume the world’s goods. Thus, an economic model that is 75% consumption will fail. Poof. 75% of the U.S. economy disappears. All of those shopping malls that you see from coast to coast will be looted.
 
明白我的意思了吗？
如果美元崩溃，美国经济也将随之崩溃。美国将失去进口和消费全球商品的能力。因此，一个75%依赖消费的经济模型将会失败。轰然倒塌。美国经济的75%将消失。你从海岸到海岸看到的所有购物中心，将会被洗劫一空。
 
Want to know what that is like? Read the Grapes of Wrath, by John Steinbeck. In the final scene, the protagonists are living in a shipping container, and on the verge of starvation. After the currency falls, there will be a lot of empty shipping containers in the United States. They certainly won’t be coming to the United States full.
 
想知道那是什么样子吗？读读约翰·斯坦贝克的《愤怒的葡萄》。在最后一幕中，主人公们生活在一个集装箱里，几乎面临饥饿。货币崩溃后，美国将会有大量空的集装箱。那些集装箱肯定不会满载而来。
 
Exp. Egghead
You are right in that no civilization can last forever, but I am Bullish on the Democracy of the U.S.A. I believe that there will be a Blue Wave in November that is going to cause the GOP to realize that the U.S. electorate does not want a fraudulent Convict to occupy the Oval Office, that the women of the U.S. do not want the Government to take control of their bodies, that we are tired of Trump’s lies (WAPO counted 30,573 lies told by Trump during his term in office), and that as a party, the GOP is going to have to offer the people something they want if they want to get more votes. Everybody now recognizes that putting 30 million Assault Weapons in the hands of gun owners was a bad idea. The fact that parents who allowed their children access to them, and then saw their children kill their classmates (regardless of the bully status) can now be held responsible and can result in the parent doing time in prison is a plus.
 
你说得对，没有任何文明可以永恒存在，但我对美国的民主制度仍然持乐观态度。我相信在今年11月会有一场“蓝色浪潮”，这将促使共和党意识到美国选民不希望一个有罪的骗子占据白宫，美国女性不希望政府控制她们的身体，我们也已经厌倦了特朗普的谎言（《华盛顿邮报》统计称，特朗普在任期间说了30,573个谎言），作为一个政党，共和党必须为人民提供他们真正需要的东西，否则他们将无法获得更多选票。现在每个人都明白，给3000万把攻击性武器发放到枪主手中是个糟糕的主意。那些允许孩子接触这些武器的父母，之后看到孩子杀害同学（无论是否是欺凌者）都可以被追究责任，并可能面临监禁，这也是一件好事。
 
 I do wish that more of the people digesting everything Faux News prints would move to the New York Times, the Washington Post, or the Los Angeles Times. It tells a bit different kind of story than does Fox News. Rupert Murdoch is the man behind the curtain of Fox News. I do believe that the American Public does not want to vote in Donald J. Trump, son of a KKK man, to be our “Authoritarian Dictator.” That is just absurd.

我确实希望那些把所有信息都从福克斯新闻获取的人能转向《纽约时报》、 《华盛顿邮报》或《洛杉矶时报》。这些媒体的报道角度与福克斯新闻大不相同。鲁伯特·默多克是福克斯新闻背后的大佬。我确实认为美国公众不想让唐纳德·J·特朗普——那个有3K背景的人的儿子——成为我们的“专制独裁者”。那简直是荒谬的。

I do think that Trump’s days are done, that the GOP will sit down and try to redefine themselves so that they will not remain focused on “We have it and you can’t have it!” which is basically what conservatism is. I do hope that I will someday have to decide if the GOP has become worthy of my consideration.
  
我确实认为特朗普的时代已经结束，共和党将会坐下来重新定义自己，避免继续坚持“我们有，而你们不能有”的立场，这基本上就是保守主义的核心。我希望有一天我能决定，是否愿意将共和党视为值得我考虑的选择。
 
Those are my opinions on the topic. Our Democracy will no doubt change.
 
这些是我对这个话题的看法。我们的民主制度无疑会发生变化。