历史上所有主要文明最终都衰落，并催生了新的文明。那么，美国最终衰落的原因会是什么？-网帖翻译-龙腾网

Michael Lucas
Corruption.
Of course, life doesn’t necessarily comes to a screeching halt for the people who had been living in a great power (though apparently it cause the Portuguese to grow morose and start making beautifully sad music, but I suspect there was a morose streak all along), so the fall might not even be noticed for a while. Perhaps it already happened.

腐败。
当然，对于那些曾经生活在强大国家的人来说，生活并不一定会因为国家的衰落而戛然而止（尽管显然它让葡萄牙人变得忧郁，开始创作美丽而悲伤的音乐，但我怀疑他们一直有这种忧郁的倾向），所以衰落可能不会立即被察觉。也许它已经发生了。

Frederick Leiserson
The coming dark ages because of what happened to Ann and I will destroy every country in the world. They tried to keep Germany and maybe japan functioning but even that they couldn’t do. What gives Ann and I that kind of power? We were put together by GOD and then destroyed and GOD obviously isn’t too happy about it.

即将到来的黑暗时代，因为安与我之间发生的事，将摧毁世界上所有的国家。他们曾试图让德国和可能的日本继续运作，但即使如此，他们也做不到。是什么赋予了安与我这种力量？我们是由上帝安排在一起的，然后被摧毁，而上帝显然对此不太满意。
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Randy Hagan
The fascists who are about to re-enter the White House on the 20th of January. They’ve been systematically dismantling our democratic institutions, processes and our nation of laws. That process will continue, accelerated, after the 20th. Say goodbye to democracy, OP.
History is replete with examples that prove that NO fascist government ends well. This incoming US government will prove that rule and all of us will suffer for it.

即将重新进入白宫的法西斯分子。从1月20日起，他们将继续系统性地拆解我们的民主制度、程序以及法治国家。这个过程将继续加速。告别民主吧，原帖作者。历史上有许多例子证明，任何法西斯政府都没有好的结局。即将上台的美国政府将证明这一点，而我们所有人都将因此受苦。

Anders Wahlberg
Well right now at the end of 2024, the USA is heading in a political direction that resembles a cliff edge all prepared for your free fall from grace.Your new oligarchical politics fronted by an idiot is the best way to create a dictatorship to rival Mussolini, and Stalin.

好吧，现在在2024年底，美国正朝着一个像悬崖边缘一样的政治方向前进，为你的自由落体准备好。由一个傻瓜领导的新寡头政治，是创造一个与穆索里尼和斯大林相媲美的DC政权的最佳途径。

Mary Krupka
Oh,I don't think it will fall because of one man. Empires don't do that. They go through a period of decline and revival several times before they fall apart.

哦，我不认为它会因为一个人而崩溃。帝国不会那样倒塌。它们会经历一段衰退与复兴的时期，然后才会彻底崩溃。

I’d expect the United States to eventually break up into coalitions of states with related economies. After some series of natural disasters,for example. A big volcanic explosion or an acceleration of global warming flooding the Southeast might make it impossible for those states to continue to exist. The survivors might not be welcome in other states struggling to maintain themselves. And the sorely taxed national government trying to cope with all this might be hard pressed to defend more distant states like Hawaii or Alaska,not to mention places like Guam or Puerto Rico.

我预期美国最终可能会分裂成一些经济相关的州联盟。例如，在一系列自然灾害之后，像一次巨大的火山爆发或全球变暖加速导致东南部的洪水，可能会让这些州无法继续存在。幸存下来的人们可能不受其他正在努力维持自身生存的州的欢迎。与此同时，努力应对这一切的国家政府可能会很难保护像夏威夷、阿拉斯加这样远离本土的州，更不用说像关岛或波多黎各这样的地区了。

But no,we’ll survive Trump. Wouldn't be surprised if there wasn't a second Constitutional convention not far down the road,though.

但不，我们会挺过特朗普的。虽然我并不惊讶，如果不久后我们会举行第二次宪法大会。
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Marie E. LeBlanc
I think the very simple answer is - Trump. He is a complete and total failure as a businessman, knows less than nothing about politics and is stunningly ignorant about economics. He is genuinely eager to destroy his own country, for the sake of the almighty dollar. He is an actual criminal and this is what Americans voted in - a second time?! May God have mercy on the souls of all Americans, who are not Millionaires or Billionaires! They are all going to need a lot of “thoughts and prayers”!

我认为非常简单的答案是——特朗普。他作为商人的完全失败，几乎对政治一无所知，对经济的理解更是无知。他真心想要摧毁自己的国家，只为了那至高无上的美元。他是一个真正的罪犯，这就是美国人选出来的——第二次吗？！愿上帝保佑所有不是百万富翁或亿万富翁的美国人！他们都会需要很多“祈祷和思念”！

Saint...ish
It's gonna be more biblical with you guys for sure..you're shit is all over the last chapters its a wonder you ask.. So basically somehow all the blacks from the US (and the whole world too) will be taken back to Africa.Then..its gonna be some apocalyptic shit going down for the rest of you back there, (any and all disasters can now fit the narrative, your pick..)I'm not that racist just the bearer and bringer of terrible news.. Keep yours eyes peeled for the rap

你们的情况肯定会更具圣经感……你们的事情已经完全发生在最后的章节里，真不明白你们怎么还能问这样的问题……基本上，美国的黑人（包括全球的黑人）都会被送回非洲。然后…剩下的人都会经历一场末世般的灾难，（任何灾难现在都可以符合这个叙述，随便你选……）我不是种族主义者，只是带来可怕消息的人……保持警觉，等待灾难的到来。

Mihai Vasilcan
Not, exactly. Today’s western states are democratic. Previously, almost all fallen civilisations were autocracies, to a greater or lesser extent. Autocracies are inherently more likely to fall, as they concentrate power at the top. Democracies treat leaders as replaceable. It’s in their very nature. They’re more of an allegiance to a process than allegiance to a person. It’s harder to destabilise that. When the post, not the person is what’s important, it lends an inherent stability to a system, and a nation is a system. Also, democracies usually have contingencies as to what happens when a person is removed (including killed) in their post. Have you noticed many civil wars in a democracy? This lends stability, and with that comes a national identity built over time. Today’s states are far more stable than the kingdoms and empires of before.

不完全是。今天的西方国家是民主的。以前几乎所有衰落的文明都是专制政体，或多或少。专制政体本身更容易崩溃，因为它把权力集中在上层。民主政体把领导人视为可替代的。这是民主的本质。它们更多的是对一个过程的忠诚，而非对某个个人的忠诚。要破坏这种政体更加困难。当重要的是职位，而非个人时，政体本身更具稳定性，国家就是一个系统。而且，民主政体通常有一些应急措施，用于处理领导者被移除（包括被杀）后的情况。你注意到民主国家中很少发生内战吗？这就增强了稳定性，进而带来了一个经过时间积淀的国家认同。今天的国家比以往的王国和帝国更稳定。

Reed Hansen
Same reason most of the rest have fallen. They become ripe in iniquity. They attract destruction to themselves. It is the law of the Harvest, law of Attraction, Karma, etc. As we feel and follow our conscience, we vibrate at a higher level and attract the good things that vibrate at that level. As we ignore or reject the counsel from God through our conscience, we vibrate slower and attract the evil things that vibrate at that level. Wars, pestilence, pandemics, tsunamis, volcano, earthquakes, etc.

原因和其他国家一样。它们因罪恶而腐化，吸引了毁灭的命运。这就是收获法则、吸引力法则、业力法则等等。当我们遵循良知并感知它时，我们的震动频率更高，就能吸引到与之频率相匹配的好事。当我们忽视或拒绝上帝通过良知传递的教诲时，我们的震动会减缓，从而吸引到与之频率匹配的恶事。战争、瘟疫、疫情、海啸、火山、地震等。

When I first read in the Old Testament that if you observe the sabbath, pay tithing, and are generally righteous, the weather would always be nice. I thought that was stretching things a bit. Then as I learned more about the law of attraction, good things coming from right living is as natural as it comes. We attract our destruction as we reject God and his council that comes to us through our conscience.

当我第一次读到旧约中的内容，提到如果遵守安息日，缴纳什一奉献，生活公正，天气总是好的时，我觉得那有些牵强。后来我学到了更多关于吸引力法则的知识，才明白了，正直生活带来好事，这几乎是最自然不过的事了。我们忽视上帝通过良知传递的教导，就会吸引到自我毁灭的命运。

Arden Tom McClure
The same reason as the rest. When the rulers forget the reason for the rise, forget the implicit social contract with the people and think only of their own social enrichment rather that the good of the entity.

原因和其他国家一样。当统治者忘记了国家崛起的原因，忘记了与人民之间的隐性社会契约，只想着自己的社会利益而非国家的利益时，国家就会走向衰落。

Robert Dusemund
The U.S. will change. One will call it a fall, others a release or rise.
The U.S. will became more and more a pacific Continent. More whites are dying ( naturally) than all others. And more coloured people come to America, legally or illegally.
Surely there are groups that want to build a wall. But will this really work? I don't believe.
I fear I will still see riots and raids, perhaps even civil war, the U.S. has not learned a bit from the first civil war. (I am 64 years old)

美国会发生变化。有人称之为衰落，也有人称之为释放或崛起。
美国会越来越成为一个太平洋大陆。更多的白人（自然死亡）比其他任何族裔都要多，而越来越多的有色人种来到美国，无论是合法还是非法的。当然，有一些团体想要建立一堵墙，但这真能奏效吗？我不相信。
我担心我会亲眼看到骚乱和袭击，甚至是内战。美国没有从第一次内战中吸取任何教训。我现在64岁。

Paul Clifford
All major civilizations in history have eventually fallen and given rise to new ones.
The USA is not a “civilisation”, it is just an offshoot of European “civilisation”.
The USA has aspirations of worldwide political and economic domination that can be dated back to 1823 (The doctrine of USA President Monro)e. Until after WW2 its attempt was unsuccessful. The last time the USA won a war it has instigated was 1898 (The USA-Spanish War).

历史上所有的主要文明最终都会衰落，并催生出新的文明。美国并不是一个“文明”，它只是欧洲“文明”的一个延伸。美国有着全球政治和经济主导的野心，这种野心可以追溯到1823年（美国总统门罗的教义）。直到二战后，它的这一尝试才得以实现。在1898年（美西战争）之前，美国最后一次赢得的是它自己发起的战争。

For about 30 years after WW2, whilst Europe was recovering from the devastation of WW2 the USA had global dominance. Since the 1980s (some here at Quora say the 1970s) the USA has been in political, economic & social decline!
In 2019, the USA’s Secretary of State, Pompeo, whilst threatening the USA’s military allies declared the USA an empire, and anyone that did not do as the USA wills will feel the repercussions!

在二战后的大约30年里，欧洲从二战的破坏中恢复过来，而美国则拥有全球主导地位。自1980年代（一些人说是1970年代）以来，美国一直在政治、经济和社会上衰退！
2019年，美国国务卿蓬佩奥在威胁美国的军事盟友时，宣称美国是一个帝国，并表示任何不按美国意愿行事的国家将面临后果！

Pompeo got the deserved middle finger!
The USA is the shortest lived empire in modern history
What will be the reason the US falls eventually?
Delusions of exceptionalism! Plus societal inequity, and economic mismanagement.

蓬佩奥得到了应得的“中指”！
美国是现代历史上寿命最短的帝国。
那么，最终导致美国衰落的原因是什么？
美国的“例外主义”幻想！加上社会不平等和经济管理不善。

Vlad P
USA has the strongest military, strongest Economy, sizable land territory, major population center. Great infrastructure for law and order. Land of opportunity attracts the brightest human capital. Much of the world investment is directed to USA, stock market, USA debt bonds, dollar as currency reserve. Great geography with hard to reach borders, and peaceful neighbors.

美国拥有最强大的军队、最强大的经济、广阔的土地面积、重要的人口中心。法律和秩序的基础设施也很强大。是机会之地，吸引着最聪明的人的才智。世界上大部分的投资都流向美国，股票市场、美国国债、美元作为储备货币。地理位置优越，边界难以接近，邻国和平。

The only potential problems one can foresee is internal conflict. Progressive want to take money from the working class and the rich and distribute among themselves and with less productive members of society. Conservatives wants to brand progressive as lazy bums who want to live on other people dimes, all while keeping the subsidies and other favoritism policies for themselves.

唯一可以预见的问题是内部分裂。进步派想从工人阶级和富人那里拿钱，分配给自己和社会中生产力较低的成员。保守派则想把进步派标签化为懒人，认为他们想依赖别人过日子，同时自己却保持补贴和其他有利政策。

Internal bickering sponsored by government aboard which seek to destabilize USA and buying off extreme politicians and making them believe they represent mainstream ideas. Adding heat to the fire, Covid and economic woes, racial tensions, lack of economic advancement for millennial generation and you got yourself the makings of events that lead to new cold civil war.

由政府在国外支持的内部分裂，加剧了这种情况，政府通过收买极端政治人物，让他们相信自己代表主流观点。再加上疫情、经济困境、种族紧张关系、千禧一代缺乏经济进展，你就会看到内战的潜在苗头。

Brady Milton
Internal collapse. Their national debt exceeds their GDP by 133% which is a new record set this year. They have no money to provide sessential services to the population and no money to provide stimulus to manufacturing or jobs

内部崩溃。他们的国债超过GDP的133%，这是今年创下的新纪录。他们没有钱提供必要的公共服务，也没有钱为制造业或就业提供刺激。

Lanning Russell
Military defeat is never impossible. Environmental cataclysm becomes more and more plausible every day. Depending on what is meant by “the US falls”, it may be more likely that the US incrementally morphs into something unrecognizable today. The plutocratic oligarchy of the US today would have been beyond comprehension in 1783. Even without a sudden transformation, everything you value about the US today may be erased in much less time than in the passing of another 237 years.

军事失败从来不是不可能的。环境灾难的可能性也在日益增加。根据“美国衰落”的定义，可能更可能的是美国会逐步演变成今天无法想象的样子。今天的美国的寡头政治会是1783年时无法理解的。即使没有突如其来的变化，你今天在美国所珍视的一切，可能会在比未来237年更短的时间内被抹去。

Yoel Krupnik
US is not a civilization, is only part of it. Even when US will fall from grace, the civilization will continue to exist.
Decline is as usual, combination of internal and external forces. From the inside economic and social stagnation, corrupt government, civil war, you name it. There will be a point that US will no longer be relevant to the rest of the world.

美国不是一个文明，只是其中的一部分。即使美国从荣光中跌落，这个文明仍然会继续存在。衰退是正常的，内外因素的结合。从内部来看，经济和社会的停滞、腐败的政府、内战等都可能发生。最终，美国可能不再对世界其他国家具有重要意义。
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Richard Greco
This is asking me to speculate on some future event and I am not a seer nor a Nostradamus. We are a great country, true, but I would not call us an empire. Are we ever going to have a downfall? The answer is very probably but who knows when that will take place. It may even be beginning now with the US having installed that orange buffoon, Donald Trump, as it’s president.

这让我去猜测未来的某个事件，而我既不是预言家，也不是诺斯特拉达穆斯。我们是一个伟大的国家，这是真的，但我不会称我们为帝国。我们会有衰落的一天吗？答案是非常可能，但谁知道那会发生在何时。现在，可能已经开始了，美国选出了那个橙色的小丑，唐纳德·特朗普，作为总统。
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Jack Garbuz
Most empires conquered other people’s lands and had to keep military forces in those lands to get the taxes and putting down revolts. The American settlers did conquer the homelands of hundred of local little nations, but their numbers were so reduced by diseases and their condition, that today less than 1% of the US population is made up of aboriginal “indians”and the likelihood of internal revolts by them appears to be less than negligible.

大多数帝国征服了其他民族的土地，并且不得不在这些土地上驻扎军事力量，以便征税并平息叛乱。美国的移民确实征服了成百上千的本土小民族的家园，但由于疾病和环境的影响，这些民族的数量大大减少，今天美国人口中少于1%是土著“印第安人”，他们发生内部叛乱的可能性几乎可以忽略不计。

The Roman empire began its decline as it took in large numbers of Germanic tribes, until much the Roman military was made of Germans and other foreigners. The Latin population of Rome had become very small.

罗马帝国开始衰落是因为接纳了大量的日耳曼部落，直到罗马军队大部分由日耳曼人和其他外族人组成。罗马的拉丁人口变得非常稀少。

While the United States had economic and cultural influence on many countries and societies all over the world, it does not directly control very many. So comparison of the US to former great empires is a false one, or tenuous at best. The greatest threat is the rise of non-European minorities in the US who have been politicized to hold grudges by the Democratic party and all the institutions it directly or indirectly controls. They stir up interethnic and interracial grievance to get minority voters to get and hold political power. But most of the higher leadership in the Democratic party are not of minorities themselves. Not many and not yet. Just a few but are increasingly making their voices heard to get more empowered themselves.

尽管美国对世界上许多国家和社会有经济和文化的影响，但它并没有直接控制太多国家。所以将美国与曾经的伟大帝国进行比较是错误的，或者说是非常牵强的。最大的威胁是美国非欧洲裔少数群体的崛起，他们被民主党及其直接或间接控制的所有机构煽动，激起种族和民族之间的不满，目的是让少数族裔选民获取并保持政治权力。但民主党的大多数高层领导人并非少数民族出身。虽然现在少数，但他们的声音正日益增强，试图获得更多的权力。

Joseph Siew
Most great empires end due to decadence. US will end just like all great empires but it’s hard to put a time frx, unless there’s a devastating blow to the economy or an eruption of the Yellowstone Supervolcano. Han Dynasty lasted 500 years, and the Roman Empires lasted till 1453 in the form of the Byzantine empire. US could carry on for a long period of time until it becomes just another large country, a group of countries or dissolved.

大多数伟大帝国的衰落是由于腐化。美国最终会像所有伟大帝国一样衰落，但很难预测具体的时间，除非经济遭遇毁灭性打击，或者黄石超级火山爆发。汉朝持续了500年，罗马帝国直到1453年才以拜占庭帝国的形式灭亡。美国可能会持续很长一段时间，直到它变成另一个大国、多个国家或最终解体。

Joseph Holleman
Throughout the history of the world, empires fall for two primary reasons:
Too much debt
Military overstretch (which is often the cause of problem #1 listed above)
Read Paul Kennedy’s “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers” for some excellent historical examples.

在人类历史中，帝国的衰落通常有两个主要原因：
过度的债务
军事扩张过度（这通常是导致第一点问题的原因）

I have written two books on the historical patterns that almost every great empire goes through before it finally collapses, or just fades from grace, and that power passes to some other nation or nations. You can find the titles in my bio.

你可以读一下保罗·肯尼迪的《大国的兴衰》，里面有很多关于历史上帝国衰落的优秀例子。
我写过两本书，专门讨论几乎每个伟大帝国在最终崩溃或逐渐衰退之前都会经历的历史模式，你可以在我的个人简介中找到书名。

The US is currently going through what I call a “secondary crisis” period the type of which occurs once every 500 years or so. The last time such a period occurred was during the Protestant Reformation which, ironically, occurred just after the invention of the printing press by Gutenberg. This was a technological moment roughly comparable to the introduction of the internet today. But it foreshadowed a very turbulent political and economic period in the decades that followed that resulted in the mantle of dominant “Great Power” in the West shifting from one country to another every century or so.

美国目前正处于我所谓的“二次危机”时期，这种危机周期大约每500年发生一次。上一次这样的危机出现在宗教改革时期，具有讽刺意味的是，它发生在古腾堡发明印刷机之后。这是一个类似今天互联网出现的技术时刻。然而，这也预示着随之而来的几十年内将会经历非常动荡的政治和经济时期，导致西方的“伟大强国”的领导地位每隔一百年左右就会发生一次转换。

This secondary crisis period appears to have begun with the election of Donald Trump and typically lasts for 40 to 55 years. When this has happened in the past the very foundations of the dominant Empire of the time are tested and sometimes they fall apart.

这个二次危机时期似乎是从唐纳德·特朗普当选总统开始的，通常会持续40到55年。当历史上发生这种情况时，往往会考验主导帝国的基础，有时这些帝国会瓦解。

The US is in a period now that will likely determine whether or not it is able to maintain its position as the world’s dominant economic and military power. And, unfortunately, if present trends continue, the future does not look favorable in that regard.

目前美国正处于这样一个时期，未来能否保持世界经济和军事强国的地位将取决于这一时期的发展。不幸的是，如果当前的趋势继续下去，未来看起来并不乐观。

In fact, the same general trend applies to Europe as well and any other country that is currently allied with the West. It is the East that appears to now be on the rise, China in particular, and likely to be the country that takes the title of the next “Great Power” in the world. But it may not be just China. It could be a coalition of Eastern powers that steps to the forefront. Or dominance could shift from one nation to another much as it did in Europe at the beginning of the last cyclical turn.

事实上，这种趋势同样适用于欧洲以及任何与西方结盟的国家。现在崛起的是东方，尤其是中国，可能会成为下一个“伟大强国”。但可能不仅仅是中国，可能是由多个东方强国组成的联盟崭露头角。或者，主导地位可能像欧洲历史上那样在各国之间转换。

But when this crisis period passes, the world is likely to experience a new renaissance period that will last for more than a century before things start to turn again.
Whether the US is the leader of that future renaissance or not is the question that will be determined over the next few decades.

然而，当这一危机期过去，世界很可能会迎来一个新的文艺复兴时期，这一时期将持续超过一个世纪，直到事情再次发生变化。美国是否能成为未来文艺复兴的领导者，是未来几十年将要决定的问题。