网友讨论：为什么美联储降息没有让抵押贷款变得更便宜？
Why Fed Rate Cuts Aren’t Making Mortgages Cheaper
译文简介
美联储的利率决策会影响抵押贷款的成本。但美联储的决策与您每月还款之间的联系并不是直接的。美联储的决策影响了投资者对债务产品（如国债和抵押贷款支持证券）的需求。
正文翻译
Federal Reserve interest rate decision can affect the cost of mortgages. But that lix from the Fed to your monthly payment isn’t direct. Fed decisions affect the investors demand for debt products like treasury bills and mortgage-backed securities. The shifting demand will, in turn, affect the rates Americans pay for new mortgages. Meanwhile, the Fed is reducing its holdings of debt, which it accrued during recent economic emergencies. That reduction in the Fed's assets, particularly mortgage-backed securities holdings, could keep upward pressure on mortgage rates. The upward pressure may keep rates elevated even as the Fed reduces the federal funds rate heading into 2025.
美联储的利率决策会影响抵押贷款的成本。但美联储的决策与您每月还款之间的联系并不是直接的。美联储的决策影响了投资者对债务产品（如国债和抵押贷款支持证券）的需求。这种需求变化反过来会影响美国人支付的新抵押贷款利率。与此同时，美联储正在减少它在经济危机期间积累的债务资产，特别是抵押贷款支持证券的持有量。这种资产的减少，特别是抵押贷款支持证券的减少，可能会对抵押贷款利率施加上行压力。这种上行压力可能会导致利率保持在较高水平，即使美联储在2025年进入降息周期。
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It’s no mystery. None at all.
It’s greed. Record corporate profits across the board while the middle and lower class is struggling with inflation and price increases. It’s a massive redistribution of wealth, from us to CEOs.
这不是什么谜题，根本不是。
是贪婪。企业创下创纪录的利润，而中产阶级和低收入阶层在通货膨胀和物价上涨中挣扎。这是财富的大规模再分配，从我们这儿到首席执行官手里。
The younger generation lost by not buying up all the foreclosed houses when they were in Kindergarten. Damn them wanting to go outside and play instead!!!
年轻一代错失了机会，他们本该在还在上幼儿园时就买下所有的止赎房屋。该死的，他们居然想去外面玩！
The US stock market is experiencing a mixed performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down slightly, while the S&P 500 is trading relatively flat. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is showing a modest gain, driven by the performance of major tech stocks.
美国股市表现混合。道琼斯工业平均指数略有下跌，而标准普尔500指数相对平稳。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数则小幅上涨，主要得益于大型科技股的表现。
Get corporations out of home ownership
让公司远离房地产所有权。
Remember how we were told ALL YEAR "once the Fed starts trimming rates, mortgage rates will go down!!!" - yeah...about that.
记得我们今年整年都被告知“只要美联储开始削减利率，抵押贷款利率就会下降！！！”——嗯……关于这个。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower uations will follow. However, people will have to accept 'reality' that we won't ever return to 3%. I now look towards the stock market to fuel my millionaire goal. Sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
如果卖家必须出售，房价就不得不下跌，评估价值也会随之下降。然而，人们必须接受“现实”，我们永远不会回到3%的利率了。我现在开始关注股市，以实现我的百万富翁目标。当然，我不是唯一有这种想法的人。
Ugh, $1,373 a month vs $2,222 hurts a lot.
唉，每月$1,373对比$2,222，真是太痛苦了。
Am 58 retiring next year but the thought of retirement gives me weakness. My apologies to everyone who have retired and filing social security during this time after putting in all those years of work just to lose everything to a problem you never imagined to happen. It’s so difficult for people who are retired and have no savings or loved ones to fall back on. what's the best way to grow my income.
我58岁，明年退休，但一想到退休就感到虚弱。对那些已经退休并且开始领社会保障金的人感到抱歉，他们辛苦工作了这么多年，却因为没想到的事情失去了一切。对于那些没有储蓄或亲人可依靠的退休人士来说，真的很困难。有什么办法能增加我的收入吗？
The damage has been done, nobody is going to lower the asking price on their home. Half a million for what can be considered a started home is ridiculous.
损害已经造成了，没有人会降低他们的房屋售价。像这样一个可以算作起步房的房子要价五十万美元，真是荒谬。
First mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were common when I bought my first house to live in, which was in Miami in the early 1990s. People will have to come to terms with the fact that we may never get back to 3%. Home prices will have to drop if sellers are forced to sell, and appraisals will drop as a result. I'm very certain that I'm not the only one thinking this.
我在1990年代初期买第一套房子时，抵押贷款利率在8%到9%，甚至9%到10%都是常见的。人们必须接受一个事实，那就是我们可能永远回不到3%的利率了。如果卖家被迫出售，房价就得下跌，评估价值也会随之下降。我很确定，我不是唯一这么想的人。
I've been watching the housing market closely, Prices have been skyrocketing for years. It's going to be tough for first-time buyers to enter the market." how can one diversify $280k reserve .
我一直在密切关注房地产市场，价格已经飙升多年。对于首次购房者来说，进入市场将会非常艰难。如何让28万美元的储备资金实现多样化？
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Mortgage rates are currently at an all time high since 2000(24 years) and based on statistics on inflation, we might see that number skyrocket further, a 30-year fixed rate was only 5% this time last year, so do I just keep waiting for a housing crash before buying or redirect my focus to the equity market
现在的抵押贷款利率是自2000年以来的最高水平（24年），根据通胀统计数据，可能会看到这个数字进一步飙升，去年这个时候30年固定利率仅为5%。我该继续等待房地产崩盘再买房，还是把关注点转向股市？
It's why I'm not buying a house at the moment. Prefer to be investing at this time. It's why I've been thinking of diversification. I have about 200k I would like to spread across across different investment classes, including and especially stocks and digital assets. Could you make any recommendations for me?
这就是为什么我目前不打算买房。我更倾向于现在进行投资。这也是我在考虑分散投资的原因。我有大约20万美元，想把它分散到不同的投资类别中，尤其是股票和数字资产。你能给我一些建议吗？
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Home's don't FEEL unaffordable... they ARE unaffordable. This is what happens when a feckless Central Bank prints and buys trillions of dollars of government debt to artificially drive down interest rates. The entire RE market got repriced when you could get a 30 year mortgage for 2.85%. Of course mortgage rates are going up- investors aren't stupid and they are legitimately worried about future inflation and don't want to get paid back in confetti. Longer dated debt, 10+ years could care less about the FED's stupid Federal Funds Rate.. that is 24 hour debt with zero duration risk. Longterm and short-term debt are entirely different markets. Mortgage rates are going higher.
房子不是“感觉”无法负担，而是“真的”无法负担。这就是当一个无所作为的中央银行印刷并购买了数万亿的政府债务，以人为压低利率时发生的事情。当你能以2.85%的利率获得30年期抵押贷款时，整个房地产市场的定价发生了变化。当然，抵押贷款利率现在在上涨——投资者不是傻子，他们确实担心未来的通货膨胀，不愿意用纸币偿还债务。长期债务（超过10年）根本不关心美联储的愚蠢联邦基金利率——那是24小时债务，没有期限风险。长期债务和短期债务是完全不同的市场。抵押贷款利率正在上升。
The record high number of cash purchases is due to CORPORATE BUYING!! The average person can barely come up with the down payment today, let alone pay all cash.
创纪录的现金购房数量是因为企业买房！普通人今天几乎无法支付首付，更不用说全款购房了。
I feel fortunate. I locked in at 2.75 but by the time my mortgage close it was 2.9. I'd be paying over $1000 more a month if I had to do it today.
我感觉自己很幸运。我在2.75%时锁定了利率，但等到我的抵押贷款关闭时，已经是2.9%。如果今天重新贷款，我每个月得多支付1000多美元。
This is CNBC’s best video. Incredible sources. Incredibly obxtive information. Very well researched.
Whoever produced this video deserves a nice bonus this holiday season!!!
这是CNBC最棒的视频。来源非常强大，信息非常客观，研究也非常透彻。制作这个视频的人应该得到一个不错的节日奖金！
Given the re-inverting yield curve and increased market volatility, I'm reuating my portfolios, and the outlook is concerning. How should I reallocate funds within my 2m portfolio to navigate the panic and take advantage?
鉴于收益率曲线重新倒挂和市场波动性增加，我正在重新评估我的投资组合，前景令人担忧。如何在我的200万美元投资组合中重新分配资金，以应对市场恐慌并利用机会？
Because companies are banking on us being used to the high prices.
因为公司在押注我们已经习惯了高价格。
Honestly, this situation makes me feel uneasy, particularly with the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 25 bps. It indicates deeper economic concerns, and I'm uncertain about my $130K investment strategy, especially with the possibility of not just a recession but potentially a depression.
老实说，考虑到美联储决定将利率下调25个基点，我对这种情况感到不安。这表明经济可能面临更深层次的担忧，我对自己13万美元的投资策略感到不确定，尤其是现在不仅有衰退的可能，甚至可能是萧条。
I was blessed enough to have gotten my home in the middle of the pandemic at 3.2%. Unless rates go below that ever again, I am sitting right here.
我很幸运，在疫情中期以3.2%的利率买了房子。除非利率再降到那个水平，否则我就待在这里。
I was blessed enough to have gotten my home in the middle of the pandemic at 3.2%. Unless rates go below that ever again, I am sitting right here.
我很幸运，在疫情中期以3.2%的利率买了房子。除非利率再降到那个水平，否则我就待在这里。
Let individuals borrow from the Fed at the same rates as the big banks.
让个人以与大银行相同的利率从美联储借款。
Crypto is risky as many would say but I think the actual risk in Crypto is not investing, buying the capitulation isn't a tough call, but it is a very tough call to figure out what to do aside holding. I remember when I just got into crypto back in 2019 but later in 2020 I ended up selling it because I was dumb and I didn't understand it. I studied and learned and now I know how it works. Got back into crypto early in 2023 with 10k and I’m up with 128k in a short period of time
加密货币很危险，很多人都会这么说，但我认为在加密货币中的实际风险并不是投资本身，买入市场低谷其实不难，但要做出决策时最大的难点是该怎么做，除非只是持有。我记得我在2019年刚接触加密货币时，后来在2020年因为不懂就卖了。后来我学习和研究了它，现在知道它是怎么运作的。2023年初我以1万美元重新进入加密市场，现在已经涨到了12.8万美元，时间不长。
This is a supply side issue that is being exacerbated by both individual and corporate greed. You can’t have affordable housing when you have a bunch of corporations buying up large swaths of affordable homes and outbidding single buyers. That just makes a bad issue worse because we already have an issue with individual investors owning 10, 20+ properties and becoming rent seekers. Pair that with an environment where existing home owners do everything they can to prevent new construction of homes to protect their home values and you have an environment with high rates and incredibly limited supply, ridiculous housing prices, and an environment with incredibly low mobility
这是一个供应端问题，且被个人和企业的贪婪加剧了。你无法实现负担得起的住房，当有一堆公司收购大量可负担住房并超过单个买家的出价时，问题就会变得更糟。因为我们已经面临着个人投资者拥有10、20套以上的房产并成为租金索取者的问题。再加上一个环境，现有房主尽一切努力防止新房建设以保护他们的房产价值，你就会有一个高利率、供应极其有限、房价荒谬、流动性极低的环境。
American dream is dead for middle class workers.
美国梦对中产阶级工人来说已经死了。
I'm very disappointed this didn't mention hedge funds buying entire housing developments..... A huge impact....
我非常失望，文中没有提到对冲基金收购整个住宅开发项目……这是一个巨大的影响……
My parents bought a house in 2012 when their mortgage was going to be $2,200 compared to them paying $1200 a month for rent. Over ten years on the mortgage is half that and rent is now more expensive than when they bought their house.
It’s worth it to buy a home so long as you can reasonably afford it
我父母在2012年买了一套房子，当时他们的抵押贷款月供是2200美元，而租房的月租是1200美元。十年后，抵押贷款剩余的一半，租金现在比他们买房时还贵。
只要你能够合理负担，买房是值得的。
Ban Airbnb in non-tourist areas, put a limit on foreign investment and corporate ownership of homes. I think those three things would make a big difference.
禁止在非旅游区进行Airbnb短租，限制外国投资和公司购买住房。我认为这三项措施会有很大的不同。
I think that the growing manipulation by investors that are buying up a large amount of the housing has also increased housing prices and the government isn't doing anything about it and these reports don't adequately shed light on how they corrupt the system.
我认为，投资者大规模收购房产的行为已经推高了房价，而政府没有采取任何措施，且这些报告并没有充分揭示它们如何腐蚀系统。
Two things. First and most imporatantly - BUILD MORE HOMES to increase the supply. Second is stop letting banks/corporations (and rich individuals) from buying more than 1-2 family homes to drop the demand.
两件事。首先，最重要的是——建造更多住房来增加供应。其次，停止让银行/公司（以及富人个人）购买超过1-2套的家庭住宅，以减少需求。
The US gets about 35% of its lumber to build homes from Canada. The 25% tariffs coming in January will drive home prices way up. Also, rounding up immigrants will leave a huge shortage in home building labor, which will also do the same. The United States imports home building materials from Mexico, though the volume and type of materials differ from those imported from Canada. Significant building materials imported from Mexico subject to tariffs include cement, steel, tiles, glass, and pre-fabricated parts for homes that will also work to drive prices up on new home construction. This will drive demand up on used homes because new homes will be too expensive to build, but with higher demand means used homes will skyrocket too. And finally, the 4 future interest rate cuts planned for 2025 have now been reduced to 2, and I wouldn't expect significant movement with inflation lingering.
美国约35%的木材来自加拿大用于建造房屋。1月开始的25%关税将使房价大幅上涨。此外，围捕移民将导致建筑劳动力出现巨大短缺，也会造成类似的影响。美国从墨西哥进口建筑材料，尽管与从加拿大进口的材料种类和数量不同。墨西哥进口的主要建筑材料包括水泥、钢铁、瓷砖、玻璃和预制房屋部件，这些都将推动新建房屋的成本上涨。这将使二手房需求增加，因为新房建造成本过高，但需求增加意味着二手房价格也会飙升。最后，原计划在2025年进行的4次降息现在已经减少为2次，我认为，由于通胀依然存在，预计不会有显著的变化。
The Federal Reserve halted rate hikes, which is a very bold move by the Fed to stimulate economic expansion, ease financial conditions and address inflation concerns with potential benefits for consumers. The major concern for me and I believe every other investor is on opportunities present in the market to enhance overall portfolio performance
美联储暂停加息，这是美联储为了刺激经济扩张、缓解金融状况并解决通胀问题而采取的非常大胆的举措，可能会对消费者产生潜在好处。对我来说，最大的担忧以及我认为其他所有投资者的担忧是如何在市场中找到机会，以提升整体投资组合表现。
We’re focusing on the wrong things… House prices are too high! If those came down by 30%, I won’t care what the Mortgage rate percent is
我们现在关注的方向错了……房价太高了！如果这些房价下跌30%，我不在乎贷款利率是多少。
Between corporations buying houses and home builders controling the supply to keep the prices high. The average buyer gets priced out and risks more on a higher interest rate in order to buy a house.
企业购买房产和房屋建造商控制供应量来维持高房价，使得普通买家被排除在外，并且为了买房不得不承担更高的利率风险。
Rates are not a problem. Mortgages should cost something, the issue mainly is the home prices.
利率不是问题。贷款应该有成本，主要问题是房价。
None of this matters if corporations out bet the sales and turn them into rental units.
如果公司通过竞标购买并将房产转为租赁单位，这一切都不重要。
26% of buyers paying all cash?! Who are these people? When the median home price (in my area) is $450K, who has an extra half-mil lying around for these homes?!
26%的买家是全款买房？这些人是谁？在我所在地区的房屋中位价是45万美元，谁有额外的50万美元现金来买这些房子？
Greedy real estate agents don't help my cause for purchasing my first home. Their commission should be 1% on both sides. If the fed drops interest rates to 1 percent then corporations would borrow so much money they would buy as much as they could. Maybe the fed should lower interest rates to 1 percent for first time home buyers.
贪婪的房地产经纪人并没有帮助我购买我的第一套房子。他们的佣金应该是双方各1%。如果美联储将利率降到1%，那么公司将借入大量资金，尽可能多地购买房产。也许美联储应该对首次购房者降低到1%的利率。
The US is unique in that you can get a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. Everywhere else in the world, interest rates are floating. Interest rates and therefore your mortgage payment changes every year if not every month.
美国的独特之处在于你可以获得30年固定利率的抵押贷款。世界上其他地方的利率是浮动的。如果利率变化，每年甚至每月你的贷款还款金额都会发生变化。
Home prices were much lower in 21, and I have yet to meet someone who put 20% down on a house. This dramatically understates the current cost.
2021年的房价要低得多，而我还没有遇到过有人支付20%首付买房的。这大大低估了当前的购房成本。
Nobody cares about the mortgage rate. It’s the PRICES of the houses that scare me.
没人关心贷款利率。让我害怕的是房子的价格。
I've always said home buying should only be allowed by American people and not by corporations (real estate businesses) because corps are only looking to make profit from real estate. An average American is maybe looking to sell the home to buy a bigger home and for the few that have the wealth to own multiple homes, at least other Americans have a better chance competing with them vs the real estate businesses within the home market.
我一直说，购房应该只允许美国人购买，而不允许公司（房地产企业）购买，因为公司只是为了从房地产中获利。一个普通的美国人可能是为了卖掉房子换更大的房子，而对于那些有财富拥有多套房的人，至少其他美国人能有更好的机会与他们竞争，而不是被房地产公司主导市场。
Remove this clause on corporations, and make home buying exclusive to individual Americans, ONLY THEN will the home market go back to being normal.
但我认为问题的根源在于公司受到《平等保护条款》保护，该条款出现在第14修正案中，规定“公司就是人”，并且应当享有像个人一样的权利。如果取消这一条款，使购房只限于个人美国人，只有这样，房地产市场才能恢复正常。
I think it’s going to be a long time before I can even find myself in a situation to buy a home. When they lowered interest rates, they exacerbated the problem we’ve had in this country, which is continually not building housing to keep up with demand since 2008. Homes overpriced. They’re probably not gonna go down. The average wage is not kept up with that and interest rates are high even if you lower interest rates you still have the fundamental problem of people don’t want to move out of there current interest rate and wages have not been able to keep up with the insane price increase housing has seen.
我觉得很长时间内我都不可能处于买房的情况。美联储降低利率时，加剧了我们国家长期存在的问题，那就是自2008年以来没有建造足够的住房来跟上需求。房价过高，可能也不会下降。平均工资并没有跟上房价的疯狂上涨，即便降息，你仍然面临着一个根本性的问题，那就是人们不愿意搬走，当前的低利率让他们不愿意放弃，而工资也没有跟上房价的上涨。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
In Canada, your interest rate resets about every 5 years. Imagine you bought a home pre COVID for 2%, and then had your interest rate go up today at 6%! You'd have to foreclose most likely
在加拿大，你的利率大约每5年就会重置一次。想象一下，你在疫情前以2%的利率买了房子，然后今天利率涨到6%！你很可能得面临止赎。
Long term risk combined with high demand. Higher long term inflation risk demands higher rates. And then higher demand for mortgages require higher rates. And lower money supply also requires higher rates as well (if all the money is being loaned out via credit cards and other debt, there's naturally less money for conventional mortgages).
长期风险加上高需求。长期的高通胀风险要求更高的利率。同时，抵押贷款的需求增加也要求更高的利率。如果资金供应减少（比如所有的钱都被通过信用卡和其他债务借出，那么自然就没有足够的钱用于传统的抵押贷款）。
double the tax rate for each consecutive house owned by individuals or corporations. It will get rid of the housing crisis and generate more tax revenue. The problem is many people are owning multiple houses and renting it out.
对个人或公司拥有的每套房产征收双倍的税率。这将解决住房危机，并产生更多的税收收入。问题是，很多人拥有多套房产并将其出租。
We boguth a house earlier this year. With the mortgage rates, and the closing costs, we didnt want to have to deal with a mortgage, so i sold a bunch of stock and we bought it for cash, outbidding 9 other offers. It made the buying process way simpler (we only needed to sign about half a dozen documents), but writing a $400k+ check was painful. Having no mortgage afterwards so we both maximize building our saving back up again has been good.
我们今年早些时候买了一套房子。考虑到抵押贷款利率和交割费用，我们不想处理抵押贷款问题，所以我卖了一些股票，直接用现金买下了房子，超过了其他9个竞标者。这让购买过程变得更简单（我们只需要签署大约六份文件），但写下40多万美元的支票还是很痛苦的。没有抵押贷款之后，我们能最大化地重新建立我们的储蓄，感觉很好。
Interesting , the stock market is currently experiencing a decline while bond yields are on the rise. However, there seems to be skepticism amongst investors regarding the Federal Reserve's plan to continue increasing interest rates until inflation is stabilized. As for myself, I find myself at a crossroads, uncertain whether to liquidate my $250,000 stock portfolio> I'm seeking advice on the best strategy to capitalize on this current bear market.
有趣的是，股市目前正在下跌，而债券收益率在上升。然而，投资者似乎对美联储继续加息直到通胀稳定的计划持怀疑态度。就我而言，我处在一个十字路口，不确定是否应该清算我的25万美元股票投资组合。我在寻求关于如何在当前熊市中获得最大收益的策略建议。
The beautiful thing that the US does well, is the availability of the 30 year fixed. (vs many countries that typically only offer ARM's)
美国做得很好的一点就是30年固定利率贷款的可获得性。（与许多国家通常只提供可调利率贷款（ARM）不同）
Actually it can be explained by 1 word: "greed". Although we're talking about "the market" decides the mortgage rate, in actual fact, there are only so many major mortgage companies in US. If they don't get a gentle nudge from the Fed board or the federal government, they will always be quick to raise rates and slow to lower.
其实可以用一个词来解释：“贪婪”。虽然我们说“市场”决定抵押贷款利率，但实际上，美国的主要抵押贷款公司数量有限。如果没有美联储或联邦政府的轻微推动，它们总是会迅速提高利率，却缓慢降低。
This doesn’t make sense..! People are just greedy, as soon as mortgage rates go down, the price of houses go up. The country needs to figure out a way to get more homes built to decrease the demand.
这不合理啊！人们就是贪心，一旦抵押贷款利率下降，房价就会上涨。国家需要想办法建造更多的房屋，以减少需求。
Companies like AVB love this since it lets them buy more land, build strictly rental units, and keep more tenants
像AVB这样的公司喜欢这种情况，因为这让他们能够买更多的土地，建造专门的租赁单位，并且保持更多的租户。
Record high house prices make it impossible for first time home buyers. Everything has gone up besides average people's wages!
创纪录的高房价让首次购房者根本不可能买房。一切都在涨，除了普通人的工资！
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
In the Netherlands you can transfer your existing mortgage to another property, so you’d only need to take a new loan at today’s higher rates for whatever your old loan doesn’t cover after transferring. Kind of a great solution to alleviating the lock-in effect where people don’t want to sell because they don’t want to give up their old rates.
在荷兰，你可以将现有的抵押贷款转到另一处房产，这样你只需要按照今天的较高利率再借款补足原贷款转移后不足的部分。这是一个解决“锁仓效应”的好方法，因为人们不想卖掉房子，因为他们不愿意放弃旧的利率。
From $10,000 to $50,000 that's the minimum range of profit return every week I thinks it's not a bad one for me. now I have enough to pay my bills and take care of my family❤
从$10,000到$50,000，这是我每周的最低利润回报。我觉得这对我来说还不错，现在我有足够的钱支付账单并照顾我的家人❤