全球货币危机开始：巴西紧急抛售170亿美元以进行救援
Global Currency Crisis Begins As Brazil Panic Sells $17 Billion USD In Urgent Rescue
译文简介
巴西近期的货币崩溃是对世界的警示——更强势的美元对世界是有害的。随着特朗普加剧对全球的关税战争，我们正危险地走向一场全球货币危机。
正文翻译
Brazil's recent currency collapse is a reminder to the world - a stronger US dollar is bad for the world. As Trump escalates his tariff war on the world, we are dangerously moving towards a global currency crisis.
巴西近期的货币崩溃是对世界的警示——更强势的美元对世界是有害的。随着特朗普加剧对全球的关税战争，我们正危险地走向一场全球货币危机。
评论翻译
很赞 ( 11 )
收藏
What most people don’t realize is that it’s not so much what these countries are doing that causes their currencies to collapse, it’s a group of people on Wall Street manipulating the currency to make money off the suffering of those countries
大多数人没有意识到，导致这些国家货币崩溃的原因，实际上并不是这些国家的行为，而是华尔街的一群人通过操控货币，从这些国家的苦难中赚钱。
Washington is now discussing sanctions against Hong Kong for attempting to assist those evading US sanctions. They may not realize that dedollarization is accelerating due to their seizure of $300 billion in Russian foreign assets. Hong Kong has $420 billion in foreign reserves. If Washington dares to impose sanctions on Hong Kong, the pace of dedollarization could accelerate at lightning speed.
华盛顿现在正在讨论对香港（特区）实施制裁，因为香港（特区）试图协助那些逃避美国制裁的人。他们可能没有意识到，由于美国冻结了3000亿美元俄罗斯的外汇资产，去美元化进程正在加速。香港（特区）拥有4200亿美元的外汇储备。如果华盛顿敢对香港（特区）实施制裁，去美元化的进程可能会以闪电般的速度加速。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
This is not really anything new. Emerging markets have long been held hostage to dollar strength. The sooner de-dollarisation happens, the better. On the way to that destination, there will be short term pain, but nothing that the global south has not been subjected to for decades.
这其实并不是什么新鲜事。新兴市场长期以来一直被美元强势所胁迫。去美元化越早发生越好。在实现这一目标的过程中，短期内会有痛苦，但这对全球南方国家来说，已经是几十年来一直承受的事情。
It is important that as soon as possible BRICS arrive at a new and stable international reserve currency that can not be weaponized or manipulated by any country.
尽快让金砖国家达成一个新的、稳定的国际储备货币非常重要，这种货币不能被任何国家武器化或操控。
US factory production cost 4x more than Chinese factory production cost.
No tariffs or policies can change that, Trump or no Trump.
美国工厂的生产成本是中国工厂的四倍。
无论有没有关税或政策，这一点都无法改变，无论是特朗普还是其他人。
If you overly depend on US markets then don't cry abt being screwed. Live within your means and trade in your own currency
如果你过度依赖美国市场，那就不要抱怨被坑。活在自己的能力范围内，用你自己的货币进行贸易。
AS A BRAZILIAN...
There are internal difficulties like, less Agricultural exports due to localized dry season in the South of Brazil.
There's another "problem".. the Unemployment is record low in Brazil, with more money, people tend to consume more imported products like electronics.
Also there's the Risk Trump, investors are just panicking, also the Banks are demanding the Government to cut investments on Healthy and Education, Something Lula is reluctant to do.
作为一名巴西人……
巴西确实面临一些内部困难，比如由于巴西南部的干旱季节，农业出口减少。
还有一个“问题”……巴西的失业率创历史新低，随着人们有了更多的收入，消费更多的进口产品，如电子产品。
另外，还有特朗普带来的风险，投资者们正在恐慌，银行要求政府削减健康和教育投资，而这是卢拉不愿意做的。
Here in Brazil the biggest problem is the mega-rich far-right speculators who are doing everything they can to overthrow the government and regain control of the Brazilian economy, increasing unemployment and reducing public spending on the poorest
在巴西，最大的问题是极右派的超级富豪投机者，他们正在竭尽全力推翻政府，重新掌控巴西经济，增加失业率，并减少对穷人的公共支出。
The US Federal Reserve Board manages the value of the US dollar as well as it can for the benefit of the US economy. When other countries use the US dollar to value products and services they entangle themselves in the Fed's mission, which is not the welfare of countries other than the US. The US dollar has the position of reserve currency for historical reasons, but the phenomena that made the US dollar the reserve currency have gone and it is just a matter of time before the dollar's position as reserve currency diminishes.
美国联邦储备委员会尽其所能管理美元的价值，以利于美国经济。当其他国家使用美元来衡量产品和服务时，他们就将自己与美联储的使命纠缠在一起，而美联储的使命并不是其他国家的福利。美元作为储备货币是历史原因造成的，但使美元成为储备货币的现象已经过去，美元作为储备货币的地位下降只是时间问题。
I think you're right in your overall summary - no-one wins with all this isolationism in the long-run. The US car market, for example, is also really in trouble, with lay-offs occurring and millions of unsold cars in dealers' lots. US brand cars from Mexico are selling for $100,000... how are cars made entirely in the US, with all their imported components under heavy tariffs, going to be cheaper ? The market there will collapse even faster. And they certainly won't be able export anything they manufacture because it will be too expensive AND under reciprocal tariffs. Can the US REALLY survive as a closed loop economy ? Do Americans really want to go back to the living standards of the 1950's. It may sound rosy, but people lived with far less then than they do now...
我认为你总体上的总结是对的——长期来看，所有这种孤立主义都没有赢家。例如，美国汽车市场也确实处于困境中，裁员正在发生，经销商的车库里堆满了几百万辆 unsold cars。来自墨西哥的美国品牌汽车卖到100,000美元……那么完全在美国制造的汽车，所有的进口零部件都要承受高额关税，它们怎么可能便宜呢？那里的市场会更快崩溃。而且他们肯定无法出口任何他们生产的商品，因为它们既太贵，又受到对等关税的影响。美国真的能作为一个封闭经济体生存吗？美国人真的想回到20世纪50年代的生活水平吗？那听起来可能很美好，但那时候人们的生活远不如现在富裕……
Dedollarization is the only option left to avoid bondage to "US $ currency". Unfortunately, US$ is still reserve currency and will take years to reverse this trend.
去美元化是避免被“美元货币”束缚的唯一选择。不幸的是，美元仍然是储备货币，扭转这一趋势需要数年时间。
John Keynes actually proposed a commodity based international currency called 'Bancor' at Bretton Woods. But the UK was already broken at that time. According to Keynes, using a national currency requires that country to maintain a strict and well disciplined fiscal policy. As it turned out, the discipline part was sorely lacking and now a commodity based international currency is emerging.
约翰·凯恩斯实际上在布雷顿森林会议上提出了一种基于商品的国际货币——“班科尔（Bancor）”。但当时英国已经破产。根据凯恩斯的观点，使用一个国家的货币要求该国必须保持严格且有纪律的财政政策。事实证明，这种纪律性严重缺失，而现在一个基于商品的国际货币正在浮现。
Economies around the world is facing major threat and Brazil , EU and other are peripheral symptom before the full blown of pandemic
全球经济正面临重大威胁，而巴西、欧盟等国家只是大流行前的外围症状。
How does the migration of the dollar off shore affect the Hong Kong dollar tied to it relative to the RMB?
美元的离岸流动如何影响与其挂钩的港元相对于人民币的价值？
In relation to Brazil, I think you didn't take into account that the former president of the central bank was a close friend of former president Bolsonaro and manipulated the interest rate to harm Brazil's economy. Today the Dollar is soaring due to speculation by large investors who do not want President Lula but rather the return of Ex-President Bolsonaro.
关于巴西，我认为你没有考虑到前中央银行行长是前总统博尔索纳罗的密友，并且通过操控利率来损害巴西经济。今天，美元的飙升是因为大投资者的投机，他们不希望卢拉总统继续执政，而是希望看到博尔索纳罗前总统复职。
No one has taken advantage of the US. American companies of their own volition moved manufacturing out of the US. I doubt you can tariff manufacturing back to the US.
没人从美国身上占便宜。美国公司是自愿将制造业外包的。我怀疑你能否通过关税将制造业带回美国。
The more he bellows and bloviates, the more he's admitting the U$ is bank rupt and desperate.
Also, it'll be fun to watch them try to restart domestic manufacturing as raw materials nations impose sanctions/demand non-U$D payment. And how quick will the infrastructure fail? How long till workers receive proper training? Whee!!!
他越是大声嚷嚷、夸夸其谈，就越是在承认美元破产且陷入绝望。而且，看着他们如何尝试重启国内制造业也很有趣，尤其是在原材料输出国对美国实施制裁或要求以非美元支付时。基础设施多久会崩溃？工人们需要多久才能接受适当的培训？真是让人期待！
Brazil’s fiscal spending is far from “out of control”. The primary deficit (before interest) is estimated to be 0.6% of GDP, which is very low compared to the OECD average. It’s a federal bank president antagonistic to the government plus his friends, the “market”, that is holding the government ransom, setting interest rates sky high, without almost any justification. 3% growth is considered “above Brazil’s natural growth rate”, too hot! Ridiculous. Inflation runs a little above the initial estimates, at 4.80%, or so, but that’s mostly due to increase in dollar rate and a bad crop plus increase in electricity prices due to a drought in 2024. Nothing justifies 12% interest rate, or above.Its the wrong medicine for Brazil’s situation.
巴西的财政支出远未“失控”。初级赤字（扣除利息后的赤字）预计占GDP的0.6%，与经济合作与发展组织（OECD）平均水平相比非常低。正是央行行长与他的“市场”朋友们在与政府对抗，设定过高的利率，几乎没有任何合理的解释。3%的增长被认为是“超出巴西的自然增长率”，太高了！荒谬。通胀略高于最初的预估，约为4.80%，但这主要是由于美元汇率上涨、2024年农作物歉收以及由于干旱导致的电力价格上涨。这些都不能为12%的利率提供任何正当理由。对于巴西的情况来说，这是错误的药方。
Didn't the USA government only have a lease for so many years on the Panama Canal. We can't own another country or human.
美国政府不是只在巴拿马运河上有租赁权吗？我们不能拥有另一个国家或人类。
This crisis had been influenced by the Brazilian Central Bank president, who was named by the former Brazilian president. Those where his last weeks in office, now things tend to a controlled reduction o interest rates, impacting in the growth o public spending while reducing the governamental internal debt.
这场危机受到了巴西央行行长的影响，他是由前任巴西总统任命的。这是他在任期的最后几周，现在事情趋向于通过逐步降低利率来控制，同时影响公共支出的增长，并减少政府的内债。
With over $750 billion in US reserves, China can easily recycle its surplus dollars by issuing low interest bonds denominated in USD that nations indebted in USD to Western banks can refinance their loans and purchase the bonds in RMB.
China could also issue bonds denominated in USD in competition with the Federal Reserve forcing up US interest rates.
中国拥有超过7500亿美元的外汇储备，可以通过发行以美元计价的低息债券轻松回收其盈余美元，债务国可以用人民币购买这些债券，进而为它们向西方银行借款再融资。中国还可以发行以美元计价的债券，与美联储竞争，推动美国利率上涨。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
The AUD is not spared, the USD is too strong. Tariffs may play some significant role in the next year or two. but AI and robotic production will censor it all. Production will move closer to the home countries, and deglobalisation will displace jobs in any way. The trend towards deglobalisation, driven by factors like geopolitical tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic, is leading to more localised production. This shift can impact global trade patterns and potentially displace jobs, particularly in industries that rely heavily on global supply chains.
澳元也未能幸免，美元太强了。关税可能在未来一两年中发挥重要作用，但人工智能和机器人生产将会压制这一切。生产将会更靠近本国，去全球化将以某种方式取代就业岗位。由地缘政治紧张局势和新冠疫情等因素推动的去全球化趋势正在导致生产本地化。这一转变可能会影响全球贸易格局，并可能取代那些依赖全球供应链的行业的就业机会。
The fiscal deficit must have raised aggregate demand and that in turn raised imports. This would then most likely deteriorate the current account and hence the possibility for a depreciation of the Brazilian currency, that is if the capital account balance of the balance of payments is not strong enough to offset the current account deficit.
财政赤字一定提高了总需求，从而增加了进口。这很可能会恶化当前账户，进而可能导致巴西货币贬值，除非资本账户余额足够强大，能够抵消当前账户的赤字。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Yes, the $ will continue to go up and will do more damage to the developing economies. How severe will be the damage: no one knows : so, we will see. In the long run, this damage will work against the $ as the reserve currency. By the way, Trump will try very hard to support the dollar's reserve status.
是的，美元将继续上涨，并对发展中经济体造成更多损害。损害会有多严重：没人知道，我们会看到。长期来看，这种损害将对美元作为储备货币产生不利影响。顺便说一句，特朗普会尽力支持美元的储备地位。
Japan should raise interest rates to stop the Yen carry trade and Yen will automatically rise. Japanese industries will get more funding when money move back to Japan from reduction in Yen carry trade. Japan will be great again.
日本应该提高利率以遏制日元套息交易，日元会自动上涨。日本的工业将在日元套息交易减少后得到更多资金，随着资金回流，日本将会变得更强。
So does Trump plan on giving factories tax breaks, never mentioned that. Who wants to build products that no one can afford to buy? Plus it can take years, these things don’t spring out of the ground overnight, mean while he’s going to double the price of everything. Trump is stuck in thinking like it’s the 50’s & the US can bully it’s way thru a china shop (pun intended).
特朗普计划给工厂减税吗？从未提过这一点。谁想要建造那些没人买得起的产品？而且这可能需要几年时间，这些东西不会一夜之间从地里冒出来。与此同时，他会把所有东西的价格翻倍。特朗普还停留在50年代的思维方式，认为美国可以像闯进中国商店一样横行霸道（双关含义）。
As a brazillian the thruth is Lula spent a lot of money in political favor and have to repay all the money he took in the presidential run, and the new economic plan was the nail in the coffin, he tried tax the rich ppl, and they fled the country. 24/12/2024 the dolat reached new high 6,74 and will get even worst. I closed my small drone fabric and I will re-open in uruguay.
作为一名巴西人，事实是卢拉在政治上花了很多钱，必须偿还他在总统竞选中所得到的资金，而新的经济计划就是最后的致命一击，他试图向富人征税，但富人们纷纷离开了这个国家。2024年12月24日，美元达到了新的高点6.74，情况可能会变得更糟。我已经关闭了我的小型无人机工厂，并计划在乌拉圭重新开设。
Why is the US dollar is still so strong when it's merely paper? It's very annoying.
When did anybody ever take advantage of Big Bully Uncle Sam? Stop playing the victim card, tRump! After stringing along all of us, don't expect others to stay like doormats forever.
为什么美元如此强大，明明只是纸币？真让人烦恼。什么时候有人敢欺负“大坏蛋山姆大叔”？特朗普，别再装受害者了！在吊足了我们所有人的胃口之后，别指望别人永远像门垫一样忍气吞声。
It is difficult to tell if the Investors allow Trump to talk as much as He desires?
They might simply assign blame for the next Crash on Trump.
But the US Currency shows no real signs of support.
The US Fiat Currency could die of Starvation?
很难说投资者是否允许特朗普像他所愿的那样频繁发言？他们可能会在下次经济崩盘时把责任推到特朗普身上。但美国货币似乎没有什么实际的支持。美国的法定货币可能会因“饥饿”而死？
Trump really doesn't understand the supply chain. What a moron.
He's shutting the barn door after all the animals have escaped. You can't protect what's not there.
特朗普真不懂供应链，真是个傻瓜。他是在关上已经逃跑的动物的马厩门，你无法保护那些已经不存在的东西。
There's no escaping ones destiny. Man plans but God has the last word.Problem is most people don't dwell in His reality.Its a clash never more than now.Water seeks it's level.Eventually.Accept the things you cannot change,etc...."
没有人能逃避自己的命运。人有计划，但上帝才是最后的决定者。问题是大多数人都不愿意接受祂的现实。现在，这种冲突从未如此明显。水总会找到它的水平面。最终，接受无法改变的事物，等等……
O governo brasileiro é obrigado a enviar 50% do PIB para pagamento de servicos da DÍVIDA. O que sobra é insuficiente para manter a máquina estatal, por isdo esse déficit eterno nos paises que, como o Brásil, contrairam dividas IMPAGÁVEIS com os banqueiros e investidores estrangeiros. O povo brasileiro vive na miséria, no sub emprego, na exploração máxima da força de trabalho, sem garantias trabalhistas e aposentadoria cada vez mais distante e precaria.Tudo isso para atender a cartilha neoliberal, pensada para saquear os países que a adotam. Isso é o colonialismo na prática.
巴西政府必须将50%的GDP用于偿还债务服务。剩下的资金不足以维持国家机器运转，这就是为什么像巴西这样的国家会出现长期赤字的问题，因为它们已经与外国银行和投资者签订了无法偿还的债务。巴西人民生活在贫困中，处于低薪就业状态，劳动者的剥削达到极致，缺乏劳动保障和日益贫困的退休制度。所有这一切都是为了执行新自由主义的政策，旨在掠夺采取这种政策的国家。这就是殖民主义的实际表现。
Trump’s tariffs in essence discourages countries worldwide to export to US and trade with each other instead. As more countries trade with each other using their own currencies, the dominance of USD as the global reserve currency would further diminish.
特朗普的关税实际上是鼓励各国不再向美国出口，而是相互之间进行贸易。随着越来越多的国家使用自己的货币进行贸易，美元作为全球储备货币的主导地位将进一步削弱。
Tariffs are the only way the US can pay the bills and pay off the debt. It will only be for a few years. We need at least 4 trillion extra dollars and there is no place we can get it. We're really going to be hurting in Jan when 150 countries move onto the new payment processing system which doesn't take our money.
关税是美国支付账单和偿还债务的唯一方式。这只是暂时的，需要几年时间。我们需要至少4万亿美元的额外资金，但没有地方可以获得这些资金。当150个国家转向新的支付处理系统，不再使用我们的货币时，我们将会非常痛苦，尤其是在1月。
Everyone has to move away from the USD. Sacrifice short term pain and go for long term benefits.
For those trading with China which most countries does, just make a deal with China to use Yuan and their own local currencies. Take the USD out of the picture as much as possible. Same goes with trade with other countries. If they are willing use local currencies or even yuan instead.
每个人都需要远离美元。忍受短期的痛苦，追求长期的利益。
对于那些与中国进行贸易的国家（大多数国家都在进行），可以和中国达成协议，使用人民币和本国货币进行交易。尽量去除美元的使用。与其他国家的贸易也是如此。如果他们愿意使用本币甚至人民币的话。
Limited analysis about Brazil's situation. "Investors" challenge government's spend so there is more funds available to pay interest rates, which are all time high in Brazil. When governments try to cut subsides for companies that do not translate those into benefits to society, or from cutting benefits and high public servants salaries, they are all against. They want the government to cut benefits for the poor.
关于巴西局势的分析有限。投资者挑战政府的支出，以便有更多资金可用于支付利息，巴西的利率已经达到历史高点。当政府试图削减那些没有转化为社会福利的公司补贴，或者削减高薪公共服务人员的工资时，投资者和利益相关者都会反对。他们希望政府削减贫困群体的福利。
Sean you keep saying that manufacturing is moving back to the US. It's a logisticsl impossibility. The money is not there, the population is not there, It took 20 years to move industry to China and Trump does not control where GM makes cars.
肖恩，你一直说制造业正在回流到美国。但这是一个物流上的不可能任务。资金不充足，劳动力也不够，花了20年时间才把产业转移到中国，特朗普并不控制通用汽车在哪里制造汽车。
The BRiCS group are dumping the petro dollar amd also need tp boycott all the products of US/Europe
金砖国家正在抛弃石油美元，并且需要抵制所有来自美国和欧洲的产品。
This currency crisis had to happen sometime when you only have one main currency that’s gonna cause a problem sooner or later.
这种货币危机迟早会发生，因为如果只有一种主要货币，这终究会引发问题。
Fiat currencies are all manipulated like crypto, I see no difference between fiat and crypto except for less fluctuaction.
法定货币和加密货币一样，都是被操控的，我看不到法定货币和加密货币之间有什么区别，只是波动性更小而已。
Have you looked at what's happening to the BRICS currencies? With the exception of the South African rand, all of them are depreciating against the dollar. The real issue lies in economic mismanagement within the BRICS nations, not with the dollar itself.
你有没有关注金砖国家货币的情况？除了南非兰特之外，其他所有金砖国家的货币都在对美元贬值。真正的问题在于金砖国家内部的经济管理不善，而不是美元本身。
China duating its Yuan as a counter to US new tariff. China had done the same in 2018-2019, it is by designed so their exported goods remain affordable despite new tariff.
中国贬值人民币是为了应对美国的新关税。中国在2018-2019年也做过同样的事情，这是为了让中国的出口商品即使在新关税下依然保持可负担性。
Is there a magnified & differential effect on US dollar value (created by US Federal Reserve) if there is an increasing trade in alternative currencies - meaning that, as there is a decline in the total percentage of traded US dollar globally - does the US Reserve’s interventions have a bigger effect on the country’s portion still traded in US dollars?
如果使用替代货币的贸易量增加，是否会对美元的价值（由美国联邦储备系统创造）产生放大和差异化的影响？也就是说，随着全球以美元交易的总比例下降，美国储备系统的干预是否会对仍以美元交易的国家部分产生更大的影响？
Seems like BRICS is ahead of the curve. Why countries just don't leave the dollar prison alone is beyond me. They could just go back to some sort of gold backed currency to trade in. That would make it much easier to set a fair price on goods, replacing the fiat dollar.
看起来金砖国家走在了前面。为什么各国不直接脱离美元这个枷锁，真是让我无法理解。他们完全可以回归某种金本位的货币进行贸易，那样就能更容易地为商品设定公平的价格，取代法定货币美元。
It is so stupid to use USD when countries doesn't trade with the US, where is their pride and sovereignty.
各国不与美国进行贸易时还使用美元，真是太愚蠢了，这些国家的尊严和主权去哪儿了