唐纳德·特朗普会竞选第三任期并获胜吗？

Nicholas Stone
Politics and economics degree. Travelled far and wide to over 45 countries.
The US constitution does not allow for a third presidential term. Even for Donald Trump.
Coming into effect in February 1951, the US constitution’s 22nd amendment limits presidents to two four-year terms, irrespective of whether they were served consecutively or not. The amendment is also worded so that there also presidential term limits for vice presidents who have been in that post for two or more years.
Amending the US constitution is notoriously difficult. After a proposed constitutional change by two-thirds of both Congressional houses, any amendments require at least three quarters of all the states to ratify, before they come into force. The likelihood of changes to presidential term limits before the next election in 2028 is remote.
 
拥有政治和经济学位,曾游历过45多个国家。
美国宪法不允许总统第三次连任,即便是唐纳德·特朗普也不行。
自1951年2月生效的美国宪法第二十二修正案规定，总统只能连任两届四年任期，无论这些任期是否连续。该修正案还规定，对担任副总统两年或两年以上的副总统也有任期限制。
修改美国宪法是极为困难的。在国会两院三分之二的议员提出宪法修改提议后，任何修正案都需要至少四分之三的州批准才能生效。在2028年下一届选举前改变总统任期限制的可能性非常小。
 
However, Mr Trump could become a future US vice president. This requires him to be sexted as a running mate for a future presidential nominee. Vice president elect James D Vance would appear to offer that route to Mr Trump’s continued role in US presidential politics beyond 2028. However, there are implications for the line of presidential succession - if a future President Vance resigned or died in office.
Running mates. US Vice President elect James D Vance assumes office from 20 January 2025. Could he chose US President elect Trump as his own VP running mate in 2028?
 
然而，特朗普有可能成为未来的美国副总统。这需要他被选为未来总统候选人的竞选伙伴。副总统当选人詹姆斯·D·范斯似乎为特朗普在2028年之后继续在美国政治中发挥作用提供了一条途径。然而，如果未来的总统范斯辞职或在任期间死亡，这将对总统继任顺序产生影响。
竞选伙伴,美国副总统当选人詹姆斯·D·范斯将于2025年1月20日就职,他能在2028年选择美国总统当选人特朗普作为自己的副总统竞选伙伴吗？
 
David Lascelles
The VP has to be someone capable of taking over the presidency legitimately. So someone with less than 1 and a half terms already in the role.
He can be any of the other positions in the succession like secretary of state but, as for non natural born citizens appointed to those roles, he would be removed fron the succession.
Though I actually doubt he'll be in any fit state to stand by 28. I'm betting on Vance wheeling him out for public appearances in a few years on a gurney surrounded by medical devices keeping him alive as for Cold War era Soviet Premieres…
 
副总统必须具备合法接任总统职位的资格，因此，担任过总统超过一个半任期的人不符合条件。
他可以担任继任顺位中的其他职位，例如国务卿，但如果这些职位由非自然出生的公民担任，则该人将被排除在继任顺位之外。
虽然我实际上怀疑他到2028年时是否还适合参选。我打赌范斯会在几年后用担架把他推出来公开露面，周围是医疗设备让他活着，就像冷战时期的苏联总理.
 
Douglas Ellison
Trump cannot become anyone’s VP. This was made clear at the close of Obama’s second term. Due to the nature of the VP’s position, that of having to be ready to become President if necessary, someone ineligible for the presidency is de facto ineligible for the vice presidency. Besides, Trump’s ego would never let him stoop to being anyone’s number 2.
 
特朗普不能成为任何人的副总统。这在奥巴马第二任期结束时已经明确。由于副总统的位置性质，即必须准备好在必要时成为总统，一个没有资格成为总统的人实际上也没有资格成为副总统。此外，特朗普的自尊心永远不会让他屈尊成为任何人的第二号人物。
 
Matt Russell
Yep. Over and above the constitutional reasons it couldn't happen, Trump's ego couldn't handle being VP to someone else. He's already in mental decline though, and by 2028 he'll make 2024 Joe Biden look like the pinnacle of mental acuity.
 
是的。除了宪法原因外，特朗普的自尊心无法接受成为别人的副总统。他的精神已经衰退了，到了2028年，他会让2024年的乔·拜登看起来像精神敏锐的巅峰。
 
Douglas Ellison
If he stays a full term, anything’s possible. However, it’s possible he starts all the balls rolling and steps down after two years and a month. That’s a two way benefit for him. If things work out, Vance would be able to have two full terms and almost half of one which ensures Trump’s policies remain in effect for a long time. If things don’t work out, Trump can blame someone else for messing up his “big, beautiful plan,” thereby maintaining his belief that he’s a water walker.
 
如果他能完整地完成任期，那么一切皆有可能。然而，也有可能他在启动一系列事务后，在两年零一个月时就辞职。这对他来说有双重好处：如果事情进展顺利，范斯将能够完成两个完整的任期，再加上几乎半个任期，这确保了特朗普的政策能够长期持续。如果事情进展不顺利，特朗普可以将他的“宏伟而美丽计划”失败归咎于他人，从而维持他自己是能够创造奇迹的人的信念。
 
Todd Johnson
But the supreme courts with judges in Trump’s favor could interpret it differently. Unlikely, especially at Trump’s age within his third year of this term, that the Supreme Court would feel any pressure to take on the case and to grant him that.
 
但是，如果最高法院的法官支持特朗普，他们可能会有不同的解释。尽管如此，在特朗普任期的第三年，考虑到他的年龄，最高法院不太可能感到有压力去受理这个案件，并让他这样操作。
 
Douglas Ellison
You’ve got that backwards. The originalist court we have now is less likely to give Trump the leeway to go against the Constitution.
 
你理解反了。我们现在的法院倾向于原旨主义，不太可能允许特朗普违背宪法行事。
 
Mark Karnegie
Besides the fact that he'd be old asf in 2028, the same reason they've been saying Biden was too old to run again. Technically (if he survives), Biden could run again in ‘28, but the only problem with that is that he'll be older asf. Hell, Jimmy Carter could run again. But no one would support that.
 
此外，到了2028年，他也非常老了，这就是他们一直在说拜登太老不能再竞选的原因。严格来说（如果他能活下来），拜登可以在2028年再次参选，但唯一的问题是他会更老。见鬼，吉米·卡特可以再次参选，但没有人会支持的。
 
Alex Beverage
Or, if 25th’d out in 2 years it could be up to 10 years of Vance.
 
或者，如果第25条修正案在两年内被触发，那么范斯可能会有长达10年的任期。
 
Chuck Hall
Trump won the Presidential Election in 2016 and 2020 (according to him). He should not have been allowed to win a third term.
 
特朗普声称他赢得了2016年和2020年的总统选举，他不应该被允许再赢得第三个任期。
 
Joseph Ekstrand
Twelfth amendment:
’But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.’
So Trump cannot be made VP. He could run as a Senator or Representative, or be appointed to the Supreme Court- but his time in the White House ends in 2029.
 
《第十二修正案》指出：
“任何在宪法上不具备担任总统资格的人，均不得担任美国副总统。”
因此，特朗普不能担任副总统。但他可以参选参议员或众议员，甚至被任命为最高法院大法官。不过，他的白宫之路将在2029年终结。
 
Nicholas Stone
Welcome clarification, thank you.
 
感谢解答，十分清楚。
 
Edward Uberti
If Vance ran for president in 2028, picked Trump as his VP, then died, Trump would indeed be president for a 3rd time. The constitution says that Trump (or anyone else) cannot be ELECTED to a 3rd term. In this scenario, he would not have been elected to the office.
 
如果范斯（Vance）在2028年竞选总统，并选择特朗普为副总统，而范斯不幸去世，那么特朗普确实可能第三次担任总统。宪法只禁止特朗普（或其他人）“被选为”第三个总统任期，而在这种情况下，他并非通过选举成为总统。
 
Martin Sinot
No, Trump cannot become a future Vice President. The Constitution forbids the vice presidency for a person who is not eligible to be President, and after four years it’s definitely over for Trump, having done two terms.
 
特朗普未来无法担任副总统。宪法明确规定，不具备总统资格的人不能担任副总统。而在完成两届总统任期后，特朗普的总统生涯就已经结束了。
 
Darth Xxooo
Line of Succession still requires a person to meet all requirements.
While I am currently unsure of VP requirements, anyone else in the line (Secretaries for instance) must still meet age and natural born citizenship to be President, if it came to that.
If Maxwell Frost was given a Cabinet position (say SecState), he’d be ineligible for President if it somehow fell to him in Line of Succession, due to his age.
 
总统继任顺序仍需满足所有宪法规定的条件。
虽然我目前不确定副总统的具体要求，但继任顺序中的其他官员（如内阁部长）若需继任总统，也必须满足年龄和“自然出生公民”的资格。
比如，如果马克斯韦尔·弗罗斯特（Maxwell Frost）担任国务卿，而继任顺序最终轮到他，他将因为年龄不符合要求而无法担任总统。
 
Colin Wheeler
I think vance will dissappear afyer 2 years
 
我觉得范斯可能两年后就销声匿迹了。
 
Lee Wm. Gaudry
Donald Trump has been given the power to ignore the constitution or even wipe his butt with it.
 
特朗普已经获得了可以无视宪法甚至拿宪法当厕纸的权力。
 
Dandy
Blimey, just how many pages IS this Constitution?! ??
 
天哪，这部宪法到底有多少页啊？
 
Alex Williams
And is it double ply.
 
而且它是双层的吗？
 
Snake Plisken
Trump has eight or nine years left tops. Then it's the Lake in Hell where those guilty of treason are eaten by Satan himself.
 
特朗普最多还能再活八九年。之后他将下地狱，那些犯有叛国罪的人会被撒旦亲自吞食。
 
Me Too
they're going to have to post someone just to label all the couches that JD Vance has fucked so no innocent people sit in them
 
他们可能得派个人专门给范斯坐过的沙发贴标签，以免无辜的人不小心坐上去。
 
Ken Rooney
Donald Trump no Donald Trump Jr yes
 
唐纳德·特朗普不行，但小唐纳德·特朗普或许可以。
 
Mienbi Brisibe
Trump is the first person in US history to own a major US political party. After January 2025, he’ll be the first person in US history to own the US as a country.
 
特朗普是美国历史上第一个掌控主要政党的人。在2025年1月之后，他将成为美国历史上第一个掌控整个国家的人。
 
Ben Taylor
Yes very likely…why you might ask well
The Constitution right now essentially is toilet paper, and if being blunt rule of law is a joke. If you think Americans give a fuk about the Constitution you'd be wrong, Americans don't give a fuk about anything or anyone. Americans are selfish, morally bankrupt and incapable of anything other than being a holes and monsters.
Next a big majority of Trump supporters can't even imagine a life without trump, basically he's all they know since 2016. Without trump these people won't even cope well.
 
确实很有可能……你可能会问为什么？
美国宪法现在基本上就是废纸一张，坦白说，法治不过是个笑话。如果你认为美国人真的在乎宪法，那你就错了，美国人不在乎任何事情，也不在乎任何人。美国人自私、道德沦丧，除了成为混蛋和怪物之外，他们什么都不会。
再者，大多数特朗普的支持者根本无法想象一个没有特朗普的世界，毕竟从2016年开始，他们的生活就围绕着他转。没有了特朗普，这些人可能连正常应对生活都会很困难。
 
Brad Miller
I’m going to assume that you know NOTHING about the US Constitution.
Because (1) you are a foreigner, and shouldn’t be expected to.
Or (2) you went to a government funded school, and CIVICS was never touched on.
By law, the President can get ELECTED twice, and if he was serving out part of someone else’s term (Oh my God, aliens ate the President!), it has to have been for not more than 1 day less than half of the former President’s term.
So NO, he cannot win a third term. Only a second.
 
我要假设你对美国宪法一无所知。
因为（1）你是一个外国人，我们不指望你知道这些。
或者（2）你上的是政府资助的学校，他们从不教你公民知识。
根据法律规定，总统可以被选举两次。如果他是在完成别人的任期（比如，天哪，总统被外星人绑架了！），那么他完成的这部分任期必须不超过“前任总统任期的一半减去一天”。
所以，不，他不能赢得第三任期，仅仅能竞选第二任任期而已。
 
Gareth Jones
Say, if third terms somehow become allowed, I guess Trump could be running against Obama. Pass me the popcorn. I'm going to enjoy watching the Hawaiian take the New Yorker down just like the Vancouver Whitecaps took down the New York Cosmos. Too obscure?
 
比如说，如果允许第三次连任，我猜特朗普可能会和奥巴马竞争。给我来点爆米花，我迫不及待想看这位夏威夷人如何击败纽约客，就像温哥华白帽队击败纽约宇宙队那样。这比喻会不会太隐晦了点？
 
Howard John Goodisson
The fat fool is already old, he'd first have to win a second term and the rule is a president can have just two terms, however there is a precedent FDR actually won four terms in office, I think since then American law changed this.
Trump is 76 now ( could be older) there is two and a half years before the next presidential election meaning the fat bastard will be approaching his 79th birthday, he would be 83 if he ran for a third term, now given that here lardarse is on the morbidly obese scale and obviously mentally unstable or with a possibility of a substantial prison sentence hanging over his head, it is then highly unlikely that he will run again
 
这个老糊涂已经够老了，他首先得赢得第二任期，但规定是总统只能连任两届。虽然有先例，比如罗斯福实际上连任了四届，但我想从那以后美国法律已经改变了这一点。
特朗普现在76岁（可能更老），距离下一届总统选举还有两年半，这意味着到时这个老家伙将接近79岁，如果他竞选第三任期，将会是83岁。考虑到他现在已经是极度肥胖，精神显然也不稳定，或者可能面临重大的监禁判决，他再次参选的可能性非常小。
 
David Cook
Do you think that Donald Trump, if reelected, will try for a third term?
All he has to do is convince Congress to propose a constitutional amendment that repeals (or possibly modifies) the 22nd amendment. The constitutional procedure for doing this requires a 2/3 majority vote in both houses of Congress and then a ratification process that requires buy-in from 3/4 of the states. There is also a constitutional convention approach, which is even more time-consuming. Either way, Trump better start working on getting Congress to write up the amendment today if he plans to run a third time.
If the 22nd amendment is not modified or repealed, he cannot legally try for a third term.
 
你觉得如果特朗普再次当选，他会尝试争取第三任期吗？
他需要做的仅仅是说服国会提出一个宪法修正案，来废除（或者可能修改）第二十二修正案。按照宪法规定的程序，这需要在国会两院都获得至少三分之二的多数票，随后还需要得到四分之三的州的认可。还有一种方法是通过宪法大会来实现，但这会更加耗时。无论如何，如果特朗普打算第三次参选，他最好现在就开始努力说服国会起草这项修正案。
如果第二十二修正案没有被修改或废除，他就不能合法地争取第三任期。
 
Simon Sobo
You’re kidding, right? Or do you honestly think something as trivial as laws or the constitution would prevent this madman from doing whatever the hell he wants?
Besides, if he’s re-elected in 2020 there won’t be any more elections. Our supreme leader will create some disaster, find a convenient scapegoat, most likely us Jews, declare a national emergency, and then he will force congress to pass an enabling act “temporarily” suspending civil liberties and “temporarily” concentrating the three branches of government into the executive branch.
 
你是在开玩笑吗？或者你真的认为法律或宪法这样的东西能阻止这个疯子做他想做的任何事情？
此外，如果他在2020年就竞选 成功，将不会再进行选举了。我们的最高领袖会制造一些灾难，找到一个方便的替罪羊，很可能是我们犹太人，宣布国家紧急状态，然后他会迫使国会通过一项授权法案，“暂时”中止公民自由，“暂时”将政府的三个分支集中到行政部门。
 
David Cook
I don’t doubt you are right about his desires, but there are hopefully enough of our democratic institutions still operating to prevent him from realizing all of them. But his willingness to ignore Congress — and the willingness of some Republicans in Congress to be ignored — is not a hopeful sign.
 
我毫不怀疑你对他的愿望的判断是正确的，但让我们期待我们的民主制度仍在有效运作，能够阻止他实现所有这些愿望。然而，他忽视国会的意愿——以及国会中一些共和党人被忽视的意愿——并不是一个积极的信号。
 
Patricia Peoples
He won't use Jewish people to suspend civil liberties. He won't jeopardize darling Ivanka and her beloved Jared. He'll do it to us African- Americans. Nobody needs us.
 
他不会利用犹太人来中止公民自由。他不会冒险影响到他心爱的伊万卡和她的丈夫贾里德。他会对我们非洲裔美国人这么做，毕竟我们是无关紧要的。
 
David Farnsworth
I think he has only served one term which would mean that if he wins in 2024 that would be his second term. After that he cannot run again.
 
我认为他只担任过一届，这意味着如果他在2024年赢得选举，那将是他第二届任期。之后他就不能再竞选了。
 
Tom Capizzi
 Could Trump run for a third term?
Optimistic, aren’t you. He’s still in the hot seat for impeachment, and hasn’t even been nominated again, yet. Nor has he won a second term. And there is absolutely no Constitutional way to run for a third term, even if, God forbid, he gets re-elected. It would require a Constitutional Amendment, and the way the first one was written, it didn’t apply to anyone currently in office.
 
特朗普能竞选第三任吗？
你真乐观。他现在还在面临弹劾的困境，而且还没有被提名参选。他甚至没有赢得第二任期。而且，根据宪法，他绝对没有可能竞选第三任期，即使他再次当选（但愿不会）。这需要宪法修正案，而且根据第一个修正案的措辞，它并不适用于任何现任官员。
 
Alex Frantz
Do you think that Donald Trump, if reelected, will try for a third term?
He is unlikely to be elected. He definitely isn’t popular enough to get a person Constitutional amendment passed.
 
你认为唐纳德·特朗普如果再次当选，会尝试争取第三个任期吗？
他不太可能当选。他绝对没有那么受欢迎，以至于能让人通过一项宪法修正案。
 
Also, remember that he probably isn’t healthy enough. Not only do I not expect Trump to still be president on 01/20/25, I think it’s even odds or better he won’t be alive. Remember, Trump is 73, doesn’t exercise, overweight and probably obese, doesn’t eat a healthy diet, and refuses to release accurate information about his health.
 
同时，别忘了他可能也不够健康。我不仅不预期特朗普能在2025年1月20日还担任总统，我认为他那时是否还在世都是个问题。记住，特朗普已经73岁了，不进行锻炼，体重超标，可能已经属于肥胖，饮食习惯不佳，并且拒绝公布他健康状况的准确信息。
 
Alex Frantz
Everything I stated is a publicly known fact: Trump is 73, it’s well known he does no regular, or really any, exercise, well known his diet is bad, anybody who sees a photo can observe he’s borderline obese at best. When he does release medical reports, they claim he’s 6′ 3″ and 239 lbs, an obvious lie. Which implies other claims about his overall good health may also be lies.
 
我所说的一切都是公开的事实：特朗普73岁，众所周知他不进行规律的锻炼，饮食习惯差，任何人都可以从照片中看出他至少是接近肥胖的。当他发布医疗报告时，声称自己身高6英尺3英寸、体重239磅，这明显是谎言。这也让人怀疑他关于自己整体健康状况良好的其他声明也可能是不真实的。