移民对德国来说是个多大的问题?

Andreas Klein
With no claims of completeness:
Many schools can no longer fulfill their obligation to provide physical education to kids, and many sports clubs can no longer train, because a great many gyms have been converted into shelters for refugees, with no indication of when they will be available again.
Some places that give out food to homeless and the poor (Bahnhofsmission, Tafeln) are having troubles because of refugees using these services (despite being provided for by the government).
Many Germans discover that it's really nice to help people in need, and that people of other colour and culture are actually pretty normal, too.
 
没有全面性的声明：
许多学校已无法履行向孩子们提供体育教育的责任，许多体育俱乐部也无法进行训练，因为大量体育馆已被改造为难民的临时住所，且没有迹象表明这些设施何时能够再次使用。
一些向无家可归者和贫困人群提供食物的机构（如火车站传教团、食物银行）因为难民使用这些服务而遇到了困难（尽管难民本应由政府提供支持）。
许多德国人发现，帮助需要帮助的人是一件非常愉快的事情，而且这些需要帮助的人是来自不同肤色和文化背景的人，其实也很正常。
 
The rate of crime in 2015 was as follows: about 8.6% of all people in Germany were non-Germans, out of which about 50% were non-EU. For severe crimes (robbery, theft, sexual assault) a percentage of 20-35% of suspects were non-Germans (pickpocketing: 66%), which is way more than the population percentage (numbers from the Statistisches Jahrbuch 2015, pretty much the most official and neutral source you can possibly get). So, statistically speaking, foreigners in Germany are more likely to be criminal, or of being suspects. Now that 1.1-1.5 Mio. additional non-Germans are in the country, of which about half are migrants, not refugees, crimes rates can be expected to go up (or are already, no data on that found). Note: Above numbers are for suspects, not for convicts, for which the numbers are somewhat more hidden in the statistics and need some statistical juggeling I am not inclined to doing right now. Racial bias might be present, but is unlikely considering that all hell would break loose over the police in Germany if it were so (think: history).
 
2015年的犯罪率数据显示：大约8.6%的德国居民是非德国人，其中约有50%来自非欧盟国家。在严重犯罪（如抢劫、盗窃、性侵犯）中，非德国人嫌疑人的比例为20-35%（扒窃案中这一比例为66%），这远远高于他们在总人口中的比例（数据来源于2015年的《统计年鉴》，这是你能得到的最官方和中立的数据来源）。因此，从统计学角度来看，德国的外国人更有可能成为犯罪者或嫌疑人。现在，又有大约110万到150万的非德国人进入德国，其中大约一半是移民而非难民，预计犯罪率将会上升（或者已经在上升，但尚未找到相关数据）。请注意，上述数字指的是嫌疑人而非已定罪者，定罪者的数据在统计中更加隐蔽，需要一些我现在不想进行的统计操作。种族偏见可能存在，但不太可能，因为如果德国警方存在种族偏见，那将会引起极大的争议（考虑到德国的历史）。
 
Financially: Cities, not the federal state, have to pay for a lot of the services for refugees, and that's with most cities already being near bankruptcy. On the federal level, the surplus of the budget has been set aside to help refugees, and such is no longer available for investments or paying back debts. It is likely that this is no sufficient, and that Germany will have to take on new debts to care for the 1.1-1.5 Mio. migrants of 2015, plus the x migrants of 2016, plus the y migrants of 2017, plus the z migrants of ....
Those are some of the primary effects. The secondary effects, triggered by these, might actually be far more severe:
 
在财政方面：城市而非联邦政府必须为许多难民服务买单，而大多数城市已经接近破产边缘。在联邦层面，预算盈余已经被预留用于帮助难民，因此不再可用于投资或偿还债务。这很可能是不够的，德国可能不得不承担新的债务来照顾2015年的110万到150万移民，以及2016年、2017年以及未来年份的更多移民。
这些是一些直接影响。由这些影响引发的次级影响可能实际上要严重得多：
 
Increase in health insurance costs: Refugees receive free medical service for effectively every and any ailment. In particular the costs for dental services are at a very high level due to this, and the corresponding officials have already indicated that the costs for those that actually pay (aka, Germans and legal migrants) will increase quite a bit as a result.
Loss of trust in state safety: After Cologne, many people no longer believe that the police is able to protect them. Airguns and pepper spray are sold out in a lot of stores around Cologne, and republicwide the demand is ever increasing. Vigilante groups are forming as well. Additionally, Angela Merkel said in one of her rare interview a few months back, that the German state can not protect its borders. The severity of such a loss of core competency of a state should be apparent.
 
健康保险费用增加：难民实际上可以免费获得任何疾病的医疗服务。特别是牙科服务的成本因此变得非常高，相关官员已经表示，那些实际支付费用的人（即德国人和合法移民）的成本将会因此大幅增加。
对国家安全感的信任丧失：科隆事件后，许多人不再相信警察能够保护他们。在科隆及周边地区，气枪和胡椒喷雾已经售罄，全国范围内的需求也在不断增加。民兵组织也在形成。此外，安格拉·默克尔在几个月前的一次罕见采访中表示，德国国家无法保护其边界。这种对国家核心能力的失去信任的严重性应该是显而易见的。
 
Loss of trust in demoncratic process and debate: The centre is dwindling right now, with people that usually are reasonable-thinking flocking to the right-wing party AfD. Even though many disagree with their rhetoric or their leaders, they see this as the only option to voice their opinion, as the usually central-right party CDU has veered to the central-left under Merkel's rule. At the same time, the left-extremists (Die lixe, which, ironically, is the very same party that ordered people trying to flee from East Germany to be shot, back in the day - they renamed themselves a couple of times in an effort to have people forget that - and the Green Party) are attacking (verbally and physically) AfD politicians and branding everyone right of the centre as racists. The more moderate left party (SPD) is trying to figure out what they want, and are constantly changing course. The right extremists think they now have the backing of the majority, and are becoming more aggressive, with numerous attacks on refugee shelters. So both left and right are radicalizing, and in many instances the politically moderate refuse to talk to each other, in particular the ones central-left and left extremists. As respectful debate with your political opponent, even if you think he/she is a moron, is a core principle of democracy, this is bad. Very bad. Think 1930s bad.
 
对民主程序和辩论失去信任;：目前，中间派比例正在缩小，通常思维合理的人纷纷转向右翼政党AfD。尽管许多人不同意他们的言论或领导人，但他们认为这是表达意见的唯一选择，因为通常的中右翼政党CDU在默克尔的领导下已经转向中左翼。与此同时，左翼极端分子（Die lixe，具有讽刺意味的是，这正是那个下令射杀试图逃离东德的人的政党，他们改了几次名字，试图让人们忘记这一点——和绿党）正在攻击（口头和身体上）AfD政治家，并将所有中右翼的人标记为种族主义者。更温和的左翼政党（SPD）正在试图弄清楚他们想要什么，并且不断改变方向。右翼极端分子认为他们现在得到了大多数人的支持，并且变得更加激进，对难民庇护所发动了多次攻击。因此，左右两派都在激进化，而且在许多情况下，政治上温和的人拒绝相互交谈，特别是中左翼和左翼极端分子。尊重地与你的政敌进行辩论，即使你认为他/她是个白痴，也是民主的核心原则，这种情况是不好的，非常不好，想想1930年代的糟糕情况吧。
 
Guido Müller
That very much depends on several factors:
Up to now, Germany let an overwhelming number of migrants into the country, but developed no stringent concept how to deal with them. For instance, it needs weeks or months to register them properly, with fingerprints and everything. Many of them have stayed in several places, virtually blowing up the numbers. Recently, they talked about one place, were more then 300 refugees and asylum seekers were reported, but actually only half the number was really present at that place.
 
这在很大程度上取决于几个因素：
迄今为止，德国已经接纳了大量移民，但尚未形成一个严格的处理机制。例如，正确登记他们，包括采集指纹等，可能需要几周甚至几个月的时间。许多人在多个地方停留，这实际上增加了统计上的数字。最近有报道说，一个地方报告了300多名难民和寻求庇护者，但实际上只有一半的人真正在那里。
 
This calls for a central administration like a Federal Ministry (which actually existed until the 60es for the migrants of the former German regions). Such ministry also would have to deal with sending back refugees or migrants, who were denied an asylum title. Currently this lies in the responsibility of the federal states.
 
这种情况需要一个中央管理机构，比如一个联邦部门（实际上，直到60年代，德国还设有这样的部门来处理前德国地区的移民事务）。这样的部门还需要负责遣返那些申请庇护被拒的难民或移民。目前，这项工作是由各联邦州负责的。
 
Germany denied up to now to be a migration country at all; it is quite difficult for a non-EU-resident to migrate to Germany. Often our demographic problem is addressed - to be clear, most of the refugees and migrants won't contribute much in an economic sense for the next 10-15 yrs., since they lack the qualification needed. We don't need any "work forces", that was the case back in the 70s. Nowadays, low-qualified work has long moved out of Germany to India, China and other Asian countries. We just have a need of some very well educated persons, and they are hard to convince to come to Germany, mostly because of the language. So at least we would need rules as any other migration country (USA, Canada, Australia...).
 
德国一直否认自己是一个移民国家；对于非欧盟居民来说，移民到德国是非常困难的。我们的人口问题经常被提及——需要明确的是，大多数难民和移民在未来10到15年内在经济上不会做出太多贡献，因为他们缺乏所需的资质。我们并不需要任何“劳动力”，那是70年代的情况。如今，低技能工作早已转移到印度、中国和其他亚洲国家。我们真正需要的是一些受过良好教育的人才，但他们很难被说服来德国，主要是因为语言障碍。所以至少我们需要像其他移民国家（如美国、加拿大、澳大利亚等）那样的规则。
 
We took in about 700.000 refugees during the Balkan wars in the 90s. More then 90% returned home after a couple of years, when the situation relaxed. Nobody knows, if the situation in Syria will ever be that good again, that people could return home safe. Just look at Afghanistan.
 
在90年代的巴尔干战争中，我们接纳了大约70万难民。几年后，当局势缓和时，超过90%的人返回了家园。没有人知道，叙利亚的局势是否会再次变得那么好，让人们可以安全回家。看看阿富汗的情况就知道了。
 
And we have for the first time once WWII the situation of a mass-exodus from a whole region, fleeing the war, but also the hopeless situation in North-Africa. And as long as most of Europe is that much better of, there will be no stopping - no matter if Germany at some time tries to limit migration. Or any small country like Hungary erects fences around. There will always be a way. Look at Mexico and the US, if you will have an out view.
 
而且，这是二战后我们第一次面临整个地区大规模的人口外流，人们逃离战争，也逃离北非的绝望境况。只要欧洲大部分地区的情况要好得多，就无法阻止人们流动——无论德国何时试图限制移民，或者像匈牙利这样的小国围绕自己建立围栏。总会有办法的。看看墨西哥和美国的情况就知道了。
 
So overall, yes, it's a big problem, for the whole of Europe. If Germany starts closing the gates, the Schengen-area will break down - as Mr. Juncker, the president of the EU, put it: the Euro makes no sense without Schengen. A severe warning.
 
因此，总的来说，这对整个欧洲来说是个大问题。如果德国开始关闭大门，申根区将会崩溃——正如欧盟委员会主席容克（Juncker）先生所说：没有申根，欧元就没有意义，这是一个严重的警告。
 
Banson Chong
It's a double edge sword. Germany - given its low reproductive rate needs immigration in significant numbers to solve its demographic problem.
The country's many Turks and other immigrants provide the backbone of the labor force for many jobs native Germans are not interested in providing for.
The sudden influx of the large number of Muslims, many of which have proven to be problematic in assimilation - as the French have discovered - is a huge dilemma for the Germans.
Careful what one wishes for ?
 
移民对德国来说是一把双刃剑。鉴于德国较低的生育率，它需要大量移民来解决其人口结构问题。
德国的许多土耳其人和其他移民构成了劳动力的中坚力量，从事许多本地德国人不愿意从事的工作。
然而，大量穆斯林的突然涌入，其中许多人在融入社会方面存在问题——正如法国人所经历的——给德国人带来了巨大的挑战。
所以，我们在期待什么时必须谨慎。
 
Radbert Grimmig
It depends on how well they are being integrated into German society.
This is not something all groups of immigrants will necessarily do of their own accord.
For example, an article in Sueddeutsche Zeitung the other day laid out how it could come to the New Year's Eve thing in Cologne and Hamburg.
Nicht alle Marokkaner suchen Schutz, einige aber doch
 
这取决于他们融入德国社会的程度。
并非所有移民群体都会自然而然地融入。
例如，《南德日报》最近一篇文章就分析了科隆和汉堡新年前夕事件的可能原因。
并非所有摩洛哥人都是为了寻求保护而来，但有些人确实是。
 
Apparently, there are plenty of Moroccans coming to Germany in search of money, not political asylum or refuge from persecution. Germany is against that kind of "economical refugee" and still tries to deny it is an immigrant nation. The pursuit of happiness is not viewed as a valid reason to immigrate here.
This means the Moroccans know from the outset they won't have a big chance of staying but will be deported at the earliest opportunity. So they try to make the most of the limited time they have and acquire as much money as possible by any means, of course also crime.
 
显然，许多来到德国的摩洛哥人是为了寻找财富，而不是政治庇护或逃离迫害。德国反对这种“经济难民”，并且一直试图否认自己是一个移民国家。在这里，对幸福的追求不被视为移民到这里的正当理由。
这意味着摩洛哥人从一开始就知道他们留下来的机会不大，迟早会被遣返。因此，他们试图在有限的时间内尽可能多地赚钱，不择手段，包括犯罪。
 
Police has been aware of growing problems, ghettoisation, organised crime among immigrants in other hotspots like Duisburg Marxloh for eight years and longer, also with extended Lebanese families brazenly defying the authorities.
But police is underfunded and understaffed and politicians rather commit to more prestigious and glamorous projects, so they just let it run its course.
 
警方已经注意到，在杜伊斯堡马克思洛等其他热点地区，移民中的日益严重的问题、贫民窟化、有组织犯罪，以及一些黎巴嫩大家庭公然违抗当局，这种情况已经持续了八年甚至更长时间。
但警方资金不足、人手不足，政治家们更倾向于投入到更受关注和更具吸引力的项目中，所以他们只是任由事态发展。
 
Also, now they can sharpen their profile by playing tough and nobody asks them where they've been the past eight years.
It's easy to blame poor people and immigrants.
 
此外，现在他们可以通过采取强硬立场来提升自己的形象，而没有人会问他们过去八年在干什么。
责怪穷人和移民总是很容易的。
 
Justin Oconnell
Germany is in danger of becoming isolated
And it is Chancellor Merkel to be thankful for that. German MEP from the CSU Albert Dess has again launched a stinging attack on Angela Merkel for her immigration policies. And such Polish political party as Law and Justice led by Jaros?aw Kaczyński can play a significant role in forming a covert anti-German coalition.
 
德国正面临孤立的风险，而这一切都要归咎于默克尔总理。来自基社盟的德国欧洲议会议员阿尔伯特·德赛再次对默克尔的移民政策发起了尖锐的批评。与此同时，由雅罗斯瓦夫·卡钦斯基领导的波兰法律与公正党等政治势力，可能在暗中形成反德联盟中扮演关键角色。
 
The locomotive that was dragging a lot of rail wagons for years is now derailed. Or, rather, someone derailed it. This 'someone' is well known as Angela Merkel. The failure of her policy is evident, and there is no sense to list all her faults here. The situation has even reached a point where Merkel is subjected to severe criticism of not only her political opponents, but also her party fellows and coalition partners.
 
曾经拉动众多车厢的火车头如今已经脱轨，或者说，有人故意让它脱轨。这个“有人”就是众所周知的安格拉·默克尔。她的政策失败已经显而易见，没有必要在这里一一列举她的错误。情况甚至已经严重到默克尔不仅受到政治对手的严厉批评，连党内同僚和联盟伙伴也开始对她提出批评。
 
In his interview to Mittelbayerische Zeitung, the German CDU/CSU MEP Albert Dess squarely tells us that if Merkel doesn't face her nationals and stop her open-door policy, that is to say, close the country's borders, Germany's leadership in Europe will come to an end, and Merkel will unlikely become Chancellor for the fourth time in a row.
 
在接受《米德尔巴伐利亚报》采访时，德国基民盟/基社盟的欧洲议会议员阿尔伯特·德赛明确指出，如果默克尔不正视国内民众的诉求，不停止她的开放边境政策，即不关闭国家的边界，德国在欧洲的领导地位将会终结，默克尔也不太可能连续第四次成为总理。
 
Ewart Wikkse
About migrants, integration and... sterilization
The refugee crisis keeps staying a critical issue with many Europeans. The article on the Soros resource page gives meat for more thoughts over the effectiveness of the integration projects that are being upgraded at the expense of the EU citizens.
The Paris suburbs are habitually set on fire due to migrants prone to go batty at any suitable pretext. Many Swedes are feeling their own city is just occupied. And in Germany the migrant standards are getting tougher with each passing year. This story with the "blunt refugees" fearful of the forceful sterilization may look ridiculous. But it resembles a provocation rather and this provocation we owe to German authorities, for that new integration course rejected so ardently by refugees was introduced exactly by them. The German language is delivered to poor migrants in such a way that they see the lessons on their behavior in the German society as sort of religious insult and threat to their reproductive performance. Now, fancy the threat is real........ Then it makes things much worse, the European Court of Human Rights in the air. It's no wonder that human rights advocates have already got interested. Strangely enough, the article has been dexed from the page.
 
关于移民、融入以及绝育问题
难民危机持续成为许多欧洲人关注的热点问题。索罗斯资源页面上的文章为人们提供了更多思考，让人们反思以欧盟公民利益为代价升级的融入项目的有效性。
巴黎郊区常常因为一些移民在任何合适的借口下变得暴躁并引发火灾。许多瑞典人感到自己的城市仿佛被占领了。而在德国，对移民的要求每年都在变得更加严格。关于“坦率的难民”担心被强制绝育的故事可能看起来荒诞不经。但这更像是一种挑衅，这种挑衅我们应该归咎于德国当局，因为正是他们推出了被难民如此强烈反对的新融入课程。德语课程以一种方式呈现给贫困移民，让他们感觉自己在德国社会中的行为规范课程是对他们的宗教信仰的侮辱，以及对他们生育能力的威胁。现在，如果这种威胁变成现实……情况将变得更糟，欧洲人权法院也在关注这一问题。难怪人权活动家已经对此表示了兴趣。奇怪的是，这篇文章已经从页面上被删除了。