话题讨论：台军演习试射陶氏导弹17发7中，被网民嘲笑菜就多练
Taiwan is rethinking its use of US-made anti-tank missiles after less than half hit their targets in recent combat drills
译文简介
在最近的演习中出现问题后，台湾（地区）军方将评估美国提供的导弹的使用情况。
正文翻译
Taiwan's military will uate the use of US-provided missiles after problems during recent drills.
在最近的演习中出现问题后，台湾（地区）军方将评估美国提供的导弹的使用情况。
Only seven of the 17 TOW missiles fired hit their targets.
发射的17枚陶氏导弹只有7枚击中了目标。
发射的17枚陶氏导弹只有7枚击中了目标。
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those are pretty spectacular failures to watch.
这些失败都十分引人注目。
The wires hit the water and short out. TOW is not designed to be fired over larger bodies of water. They fly about four seconds, which matches a range of 800 to 1,200 meters which is the maximum range over bodies of water.
导弹线触水兵短路。陶氏的设计不适合在较大的水体上发射。它们大约飞行4秒，符合800到1200米的射程，这是在水体上空的最大射程。
You can see in the first video that the tow started to spin out faster than gravity could have dragged the wires to the water.
可以在第一个视频中看到，导弹开始飞出的速度比重力将导弹线拖到水中的速度要快。
Missile was stuck in full yaw and pitch. TOWs are not spin stabilized. Second and third videos may be because of the water, however.
导弹完全处于偏航和颠簸状态。陶氏不是自旋稳定的。然而，第二和第三个视频可能是因为水。
hanguang is the army's strategy to park every armored vehicle on the coast as a bunker and use them to deny the PLA the beachhead. where else would they be using TOW missiles?
汉光演习的台军战略，是把每一辆装甲车停放在海岸上作为掩体，并用它们来阻止解放军的滩头阵地。他们还会在哪里使用陶氏导弹?
That sounds like not a TOW problem
这听起来不像是陶氏的问题。
its a doctrine problem which ties back to a "why does taiwan need a standing army" problem
这是一个理论问题，可以追溯到“为什么台湾（地区）需要常备军”的问题。
Does that mean a TOW can’t be fired in heavy rain?
这是否意味着陶氏不能在大雨中发射?
Sounds like a skill issue to me. Syrian rebels were sniping motherfuckers with TOWS ten years ago.
听起来像是技能问题。十年前，叙利亚叛军用陶氏狙击那些混蛋。
Could be surivor bias: they don't show the misses and counterfire.
可能是幸存者的偏见：他们不展示失误和反击。
They did actually. The CIA required video receipts for each round fired. They didn’t want the rebels selling the missiles on the black market so the rebels had to account for each one if they wanted resupply. Thats why the rebels would “waste” rounds on soldiers - they weren’t the ones paying for it.
他们确实展示了。中央情报局要求每次发射都有录像记录。他们不希望叛军在黑市上出售这些导弹，所以如果叛军想要补给，就必须对每一枚导弹进行说明。这就是为什么叛军会在士兵身上“浪费”弹药——他们不是付钱的人。
That doesn’t refute the fact that we were not shown the ones that work
这并不能反驳这样一个事实，即我们没有看到生效的导弹。
If the Syrian rebels had abysmal hit rates like Taiwan is having, the CIA would probably have stopped sending them any TOWs
如果叙利亚叛军的命中率像台军那样糟糕，中央情报局可能会停止向他们发送任何陶氏。
The problem is likely on their end. Maintenance, training or both. The TOW has an excellent combat record.
问题很可能出在他们身上。维护，训练或两者兼而有之。陶氏有着出色的战斗记录。
usage, TOW isn't designed to be used over water like that. Seems more like the military higherups didn't plan properly when purchasing their weaponry.
They should have gone for the RF guided tows or maybe hellfires if they wanted an anti landing ship missile
是使用问题，陶氏不是设计用来在这样的水面上使用的。似乎更像是军方高层在购买武器时没有做好适当的计划。
如果他们想要反登陆舰导弹，他们应该选择射频制导拖曳导弹或者地狱火导弹。
Worked for me in Battlefield.
我在《战地》里很好用。
I cant think of any reason why firing it over water would cause a problem but I'm not a TOW gunner.
我想不出有什么理由导致在水面上发射会造成问题，但我不是陶氏导弹发射员。
They are wire guided. Water shorts the signal.
它们是金属丝引导的。水会让信号短路。
The wire doesn't sag into the water while the missile is in flight. It's pulled taught.
当导弹飞行时，金属丝不会垂入水中。它拉直了。
ATP 3-21.8 says to avoid firing over water at ranges above 1100 yards because it can short the wires and/or reduce range, I imagine it’s a combination of spray, salt, humidity, and waves that create issues
ATP 3-21.8说要避免在超过1100码的水面上射击，因为它会让导线短路和/或缩小射程，我想是水雾、盐分、湿度和海浪的组合造成了这个问题。
Interesting, thanks.
有意思，谢谢。
The wire is not pulled taught in flight. It simply unspools.
Wire Spools. Two wire spools, each holding 3,750 meters of wire, are located at the rear of the missile. The wire is made of fine steel and is coated with a thin layer of varnish for insulation. There is virtually no tension on the wire, so it droops down on the ground behind the missile as the missile flies downrange.
-FM 3-22.34
导线在飞行中没有拉直，很简单它使用线轴。
线轴。两个，每个线轴有3750米导线，位于导弹的后部。导线是用精钢制成的，并涂上一层薄薄的绝缘漆。导线几乎没有张力，所以当导弹向下飞行时，它会垂到导弹后面的地面上。
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thereddaikon
Thanks, it certainly looks taught in video but I suppose it does sag.
谢谢，在视频中看起来肯定是绷直的，但我想它确实下垂了。
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wire guided, the wires dip into the water causing issues.
线导导弹，导线浸入水中引起问题。
Bleh, since I looked it up from a different comment.
部队，我在另一个评论中查到，
台湾（地区）采购了RF型BGM-71Fs，非线导型。
文章说：
“8月26日至27日在屏东县进行的试验使用了老式TOW 2A反坦克导弹，由安装在M1167悍马装甲车上的新型TOW 2B发射器发射。”
所以他们发射的是原版陶式导弹，2A型，我想这种导弹已经有几十年没有生产了。DSCA的档案可以追溯到2004年，所以在那之前。维基百科指出，它们是在1980年出售的，尽管文章没说。不过，我不打算进一步调查了。
因此，尽管购买了RF型TOW，他们还是在水上发射了44年以上的有线制导型陶氏。
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Oh so sounds like more of a reporting error then. We know wire guided tows have issues with water its in the manual even. So it sounds like they were using older stocks for training but I guess it got reported as issues with the missiles that were expected?
哦，听起来更像是一个报道错误。我们知道导线制导型陶氏导弹有怕水的问题，甚至在手册上都有。所以听起来他们是在使用旧的库存进行训练，但我猜它被当做预计要购买的导弹存在的问题了？
So by purchasing 1,700 missiles they can expect 700 hits? Definitely not an environment I’d want to be moving a vehicle around in.
所以购买1700枚导弹，他们就能命中700次? 我绝对不希望在这样的环境里开船。
Sure maybe? If the target is just floating in the ocean stationary and not shooting back and with no close air support.
你确定可能吗? 如果目标只是漂浮在海洋中静止不动，不还击，也没有近距离空中支援的话。
By purchasing 100 launchers, they can expect 41 hits.
购买100个发射器，他们预计可以命中41次。
To be fair, there's little reason why these shouldn't be made fire and forget in 24
公平地说，没有什么理由不把这些导弹做成发射后不管的型号。
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not really a TOW problem though. it's thing is that optical guidance is effectively not jammable compared to IR/Radar.
虽然不是陶氏的问题。问题是，与红外/雷达相比，光学制导实际上是不会受到干扰的。
And putting sensors and guidance in every missile is expensive
而且在每枚导弹上安装传感器和制导系统都很昂贵。
There was a plan in the 90's to do it. But that upxe was dropped for budgetary reasons due to the peace dividend. TOW's replacement is Javelin for infantry and JAGM for vehicles. Both of which are fire and forget.
90年代曾有过这样的计划。但由于和平红利的预算原因，这一更新被取消了。TOW的替代品是用于步兵的标枪和用于车辆的JAGM。这两者都是发射后不管的类型。
That is pretty terrible. Do the launchers or missiles have some kind of a defect?
这太可怕了。发射装置或导弹有什么缺陷吗?
Nothing wrong with the missiles, just soliders using them incorrectly. The older, wire-guided variants have a much shorter range on water due to the guidance wires drifting down and then shorting the signals.
That's why TOW (and similar wire-guided missiles) are not suited for coastal defence, Sweden and Norway bought Hellfire for exactly this role.
导弹本身没有问题，只是士兵使用不当。老式的线制导改型在水面上的射程要短得多，因为制导线向下漂移，然后使信号短路。
这就是为什么陶式导弹(以及类似的线导导弹)不适合用于海岸防御，瑞典和挪威购买地狱火导弹正是为了这个目的。
Does this mean TOW can't really be used in rain either? I guess the wires are uninsulated?
这是否意味着陶氏也不能在雨中使用? 我猜它的电线没有绝缘吧?
Where are you living that raindrops are large enough to short across the wires‽
你住在哪里？雨大到能短路导线？
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Wet ground conducts electricity.
湿地导电。
Order of magnitude difference. Wet soil is in the 100-500 mS/m range; saltwater is measured in mS/cm (usually around 50, higher in the shallows).
数量级的差异。湿土的电导率在100- 500ms /m范围；海水的电导率测量单位是mS/cm(通常在50左右，浅水区更高)。
Did you look at the image in the lix? Did you read the lix?
These are wire-guided, which limits their max range when fired over large bodies of water. This is because the trailing wires will eventually drift down into the water and short-out the signal
So, no, rain is not a issue. Unless it's rained enough to cause a large body of water. The image is out of FM 3-22.34.
你看链接里的图片了吗?你看链接了吗?
这些都是金属丝制导的，这限制了它们在大面积水域上发射时的最大射程。这是因为拖拽的电线最终会漂流到水中，导致信号短路。
所以，不，下雨不是问题。除非雨下得够大，形成一大坨的水。图片出租FM 3-22.34。
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If the intent is to use these systems to fire on amphibious vehicles making landfall, landing craft etc it would seem like perhaps a poor choice to sell them this weapon system for that purpose you know?
Taiwan might have been better served with Javelin or Spike.
如果目的是用这些系统向登陆的两栖车辆、登陆艇等开火，那么向他们出售这种武器系统似乎是一个糟糕的选择，你知道吗?
台湾（地区）用标枪或长钉可能会更好。
Eh, I fail to see what that has to do with the seller. The limitations of the TOW 2B are well documented, it is likely the most publically documented line of ATGMs ever produced apart from maybe the Malyutka. It's also, uhh, a anti-tank guided missile. The Javelin wouldn't likely do any better, it again is a ATGM. If a landing craft would even produce sufficient contrast for the tracking gates to work is at best questionable. Again the same for the Spike, which I'm not sure how is even in the equation with how you phrased your statement being the US does not produce it. The TOW works as it is a SACLOS missile, it is guided by a human being.
额，我看不出这和卖家有什么关系。陶氏 2B型的局限性是有据可查的，它可能是除了“马留特卡”外，有史以来资料公开程度最高的反坦克导弹系列。这也是一种反坦克导弹。标枪不太可能表现得更好，它也是ATGM。登陆艇是否能产生足够的对比度，使跟踪门起作用，相当值得怀疑。长钉也一样，我不确定这与你所说的“美国不制造它”有什么关系。这种陶氏导弹的工作方式就是一种SACLOS（瞄准线半自动控制）导弹，它是由人引导的。
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台湾（地区）选择了陶氏导弹，而不是美国帮台湾（地区）选择的（或者用官方术语是“台北经济文化代表处”）。美国没有卖标枪导弹。
这个帖子根本没有意义，因为卖给台湾（地区）的陶氏导弹是RF型，而不是线导型。尽管可能有没有被DSCA记录在案的早期军售，但我不想再查了。
From what I can find, they fired (or were planned to fire) over 290 missiles. (lix in Chinese) Hit rate is unknown for the rest, though; the 7/17 count is for the firings that took place and were seen by journalists. Some people I've seen have speculated from the large number of firings that they're firing off old stock (from the 80's and 90's) for familiarization training.
据我所知，他们发射了(或计划发射)290多枚导弹。(中文链接)然而，其余导弹的命中率不知道；17发7中是指发生并被记者看到的发射。我所见过的一些人从大量的射击中推测，他们是在用旧库存(来自80年代和90年代)进行熟悉训练。
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Common ROC L
国军日常大失败。
Another day, another PRC W.
大陆又一次赢麻了。
Here's the entire video of that entire exercise, from start to finish.
https://www.youtube.com/live/vuWCarXqXQg?feature=shared
这是整个演习的视频，从头到尾。
According to them, it was actually 10 hits out of 17 missiles fired. For the misses:
据他们所说，实际上是发射17枚命中10次。至于未命中的：
4枚為故障彈
這次射擊操演的成效有些是沒有命中，有些彈藥是失效的
實際上在生手的部分就有超過二分之一，是希望由有實彈射擊經驗的熟手來帶領生手做一個經驗傳承
I'm not really sure why they think defective rounds isn't a problem, unless they're going for an "it's a RTX problem not our problem" angle.
我真的不知道为什么他们认为故障弹药不是问题，除非他们是从“这是RTX的问题而不是我们的问题”的角度出发的。
I'm not really sure why they think defective rounds isn't a problem,
Probably because they're firing off 44+ year old TOW-2As. They aren't likely defective apart from being expired.
可能是因为他们发射的有超过44年历史的陶氏2a型。除了过期，它们不太可能有故障。
Be ***.
Do nothing.
Win.
作为大陆，
啥也没做，
赢了。
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Jeffery
"It's unclear if the problem was the weapon or the operator."
Yes, that was my question also. The BGM-71 TOW is an established missile design, used in several combat situations. Either the batch sent to Taiwan is somehow defective, or the operators need training. It is still used by over 50 countries, including the U.S. Army and Marines.
“目前还不清楚问题出在武器还是操作员身上。”是的，这也是我的问题。BGM-71 TOW是一种知名的导弹设计，用于几种战斗情况。要么是送到台湾（地区）的那批产品有缺陷，要么是操作人员需要培训。它仍然被50多个国家使用，包括美国陆军和海军陆战队。
I mean their own military basically said 'we weren't worried about hitting targets we were worried about teaching them basic operation.'
If you were teaching someone to use a rifle you wouldn't think the rifle was broken when they only hit the bullseye with half their shots. You'd think, 'decent job for a first time shooting a gun'. These are far more complicated than a gun.
我的意思是他们自己的军队基本上说，“我们不担心击中目标，我们担心的是教会他们基本的操作”。
如果你在教别人使用步枪，你不会因为他们只射中了一半的靶心而认为步枪坏了。你可能会想，“就第一次打枪来说还不错”。这些武器比枪复杂得多。
I'm not an expert here, but doesn't the person manually guide the TOW after launch? Wouldn't most hits or misses be operator related
我不是这方面的专家，但是这不是一种发射后手动制导的陶氏导弹吗? 大多数命中或未命中不是都和操作有关吗？
Looks like the exercise planners didn't take into account: that firing a significant distance over water would have an adverse effect on guidance should the wire become submerged, same prohibition against firing over high-power transmission lines.
看起来演习策划者没有考虑到：如果电线淹水，在水面上远距离发射会对制导产生不利影响，同样禁止越过高功率输电线路发射。
The TOW missile is guided to target by the operator. So, the title should have read ". . . . after less than half of their soldiers were able to hit their targets in recent combat drills"
陶氏导弹由操作员制导瞄准。所以，标题应该是“……在最近的战斗演习中，只有不到一半的士兵能够击中目标。”
Ukrainians don’t seem to have any issues with them. I suspect that more training is required.
乌克兰人似乎对它们没有任何意见。我怀疑需要更多的培训。
The TOW weapon works fine when used against a land target. But the system was never intended to be fired over water. Once the trailing guide wires make contact with the water the guidance system goes haywire.
TOW武器在对付陆地目标时效果很好。但该系统从来不是用在水上发射的。一旦拖尾导丝与水接触，制导系统就会失控。
Former Marine 0311 here. Anytime the 0352 Marines shot their target, they were dead on. Those are wire guided missiles. It was probably the operator. All the operator has to do is keep it on target.
我是前海军陆战队0311。只要0352海军陆战队员打靶，他们就会准确无误。那些是金属丝制导导弹。可能是操作员的问题。操作员所要做的就是让它对准目标。
100% operator error, the TOW is more accurate at longer distances than any other AT system. My Soldiers were scoring 100% hit rate at our last gunnery...
绝对是操作员的错误，陶氏在更远的距离下笔任何其他反坦克导弹更加精准。我的士兵在最后一次射击中命中率是100%……
It’s a relatively small island not much bigger than Hawaii. Why would China even use tanks? I would think cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, drones, bombers, submarines, naval ships etc.
这是一个相对较小的岛屿，比夏威夷大不了多少。为什么中国要使用坦克? 我认为是巡航导弹、弹道导弹、无人机、轰炸机、潜艇、海军舰艇等。
TOWs may be outdated technology compared to more modern drone technology. Drones are just easy to pilot and hit with from relative safety up to completely safe on a different continent. The conflict in Ukraine is seeing new drone developments almost monthly. TOW missiles are just so vulnerable.
与更现代的无人机技术相比，陶氏的技术可能过时了。无人机的驾驶和攻击都很容易，从相对安全到另一个水平的完全安全。乌克兰冲突中几乎每个月都有新的无人机发展。陶式导弹太脆弱了。
The TOW is guided, not a homing missile. Operator error is 100% responsible.
陶氏是制导导弹，不是寻的导弹。操作失误100%要负责。
Kind of a lame excuse for bad marksmanship.
枪法不好，烂借口一大堆。
Well, the US is 10 years behind in shipments of armaments that Taiwan has already paid for while shipping off freebies to Ukraine.
嗯，台湾（地区）付了钱，美国10年后才运送军火，同时却免费送给乌克兰。
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Thats funny since the US troops and the Ukrainians have been using them and have no complaints. Ukraine is actually using them in combat and praise TOW highly along with other US anti-tank weapons.
真好笑，因为美国军队和乌克兰人一直在使用它们，而且没有抱怨。乌克兰实际上在战斗中使用了陶氏，并高度赞扬了陶氏和其他美国反坦克武器。