美国梦对大多数人来说遥不可及
The American Dream Feels Out of Reach for Most
译文简介
《华尔街日报》的一项民意调查显示，多数美国人都希望拥有自己的房子、成家立业、安享晚年，但即使努力工作，这些目标也很难实现。
正文翻译
题图。
Americans overwhelmingly desire all the traditional trappings of the American dream—owning a home, having a family, and looking forward to a comfortable retirement. But very few believe they can easily achieve it.
绝大多数美国人都渴望实现所有传统的美国梦，拥有自己的房子、成家立业、安享晚年。但很少有人相信他们能轻松实现这一梦想。
绝大多数美国人都渴望实现所有传统的美国梦，拥有自己的房子、成家立业、安享晚年。但很少有人相信他们能轻松实现这一梦想。
A July Wall Street Journal/NORC poll of 1,502 U.S. adults shows a stark gap between people’s wishes and their expectations. The trend was consistent across gender and party lines, but held more true for younger generations, who have been priced out of homeownership and saddled with high interest rates and student debt.
《华尔街日报》与全国民意研究中心于7月份对1502名美国成年人进行的一项民意调查显示，人们的愿望与期望之间存在明显差距。这一趋势在不同性别和党派之间都是一致的，但对于年轻一代来说尤为如此，因为他们已经被挤出了自行置业的行列，并背负着高利率和学生贷款。
《华尔街日报》与全国民意研究中心于7月份对1502名美国成年人进行的一项民意调查显示，人们的愿望与期望之间存在明显差距。这一趋势在不同性别和党派之间都是一致的，但对于年轻一代来说尤为如此，因为他们已经被挤出了自行置业的行列，并背负着高利率和学生贷款。
While 89% of respondents said owning a home is either essential or important to their vision of the future, only 10% said homeownership is easy or somewhat easy to achieve. Financial security and a comfortable retirement were similarly labeled as essential or important by 96% and 95% of people, respectively, but rated as easy or somewhat easy to pull off by only 9% and 8%.
尽管89%的受访者表示，拥有一套住房对他们的未来愿景至关重要，但只有10%的受访者表示，拥有一套住房很容易实现或比较容易实现。同样，分别有96%和95%的人认为财务安全和舒适的退休生活是必要或重要的，但认为容易或比较容易实现的只有9%和8%。
尽管89%的受访者表示，拥有一套住房对他们的未来愿景至关重要，但只有10%的受访者表示，拥有一套住房很容易实现或比较容易实现。同样，分别有96%和95%的人认为财务安全和舒适的退休生活是必要或重要的，但认为容易或比较容易实现的只有9%和8%。
Twelve years ago, when researchers at Public Religion Research Institute asked 2,501 people if the American dream “still holds true,” more than half said it did. When The Wall Street Journal asked the same question in July, that dropped to about a third of respondents.
十二年前，当公共宗教研究所的研究人员询问2501人美国梦是否“仍然真实”时，超过半数的人表示“真实”。当《华尔街日报》今年7月提出同样的问题时，这一比例下降到了约三分之一。
By many measures, economists say, people are right to feel that their shot at success has diminished.
经济学家说，从许多方面来看，人们感到成功机会减少是准确的。
经济学家说，从许多方面来看，人们感到成功机会减少是准确的。
“Key aspects of the American dream seem out of reach in a way that they were not in past generations,” says Emerson Sprick, an economist at Washington, D.C., think tank the Bipartisan Policy Center.
华盛顿智库“两党政策中心”的经济学家埃默森-斯普利克说：“美国梦的关键方面似乎与过去几代人不同，变得遥不可及。”
华盛顿智库“两党政策中心”的经济学家埃默森-斯普利克说：“美国梦的关键方面似乎与过去几代人不同，变得遥不可及。”
Sprick points to the continued decline of private-sector pensions—leading to their near-disappearance—and the surge in the cost of homeownership as two of the biggest economic changes over the past decade.
斯普利克指出，过去十年中最大的两个经济变化是，私营部门养老金的持续下降导致其已近乎消失，另一个是购房成本的激增。
斯普利克指出，过去十年中最大的两个经济变化是，私营部门养老金的持续下降导致其已近乎消失，另一个是购房成本的激增。
Marquell Washington remembers that his elementary-school teachers instilled in him that high grades and a college degree would be his ticket out of the Chicago neighborhood where he grew up “hearing gunshots every day.”
马奎尔-华盛顿记得，他的小学老师向他灌输了这样的思想：成绩优异并获得大学学位将是他离开“每天都能听到枪声”的芝加哥社区的通行证。
马奎尔-华盛顿记得，他的小学老师向他灌输了这样的思想：成绩优异并获得大学学位将是他离开“每天都能听到枪声”的芝加哥社区的通行证。
The promise, the now 22-year-old says, was that “you’d get a good job and enjoy the rest of your life in a house with a front gate.” He was the first person in his family to go to college, but dropped out during his junior year after three of his close friends were killed within months of one another.
现年22岁的他说，当时的承诺是“你会找到一份好工作，在有前门的房子里安享晚年”。他是家里第一个上大学的人，但在大三那年，他的三个好友在几个月内相继遇害，于是他辍学了。
现年22岁的他说，当时的承诺是“你会找到一份好工作，在有前门的房子里安享晚年”。他是家里第一个上大学的人，但在大三那年，他的三个好友在几个月内相继遇害，于是他辍学了。
He now makes around $30,000 a year working part-time for youth development nonprofit My Block, My Hood, My City. He says he can’t afford to move out of his mother’s Section 8 apartment where he grew up, let alone to resolve the $10,000 debt he needs to transfer him to a school closer to home. He hasn’t given up on his American dream, he says, but he’s finding it much less straightforward than he thought.
现在，他在非营利性青年发展组织“我的街区、我的街区、我的城市”兼职工作，年薪约为3万美元。他说，他没钱搬出母亲的第8区公寓，因为他从小就在那里长大，更不用说解决转到离家更近的学校所需的1万美元债务了。他说，他并没有放弃他的美国梦，但他发现这个梦远没有他想象的那么简单。
现在，他在非营利性青年发展组织“我的街区、我的街区、我的城市”兼职工作，年薪约为3万美元。他说，他没钱搬出母亲的第8区公寓，因为他从小就在那里长大，更不用说解决转到离家更近的学校所需的1万美元债务了。他说，他并没有放弃他的美国梦，但他发现这个梦远没有他想象的那么简单。
“They don’t tell you how hard it is to obtain the American dream,” says Washington. “You have to learn that on your own.”
“他们没有告诉你实现美国梦有多难，”华盛顿说。“你必须自己去体会。”
“他们没有告诉你实现美国梦有多难，”华盛顿说。“你必须自己去体会。”
Economic mobility has declined in recent decades on the whole, economists say.
经济学家说，近几十年来，经济流动性总体上有所下降。
经济学家说，近几十年来，经济流动性总体上有所下降。
插图：黛安-汤普森正在查看她收集的优惠券，这些优惠券可以帮助她节省与两个女儿、女婿和孙辈同住的家中的食品杂货和家居用品开支
While around 90% of children born in 1940 were ultimately better off than their parents, according to research by Massachusetts Institute of Technology economics professor Nathaniel Hendren and Harvard University economist Raj Chetty, only around half of those born in the 1980s were able to say the same. Younger cohorts appear to be in a similar position based on median income growth, Hendren says, but likely experienced a slight post-Covid boost as wages for lower-income Americans have outpaced other earners.
根据麻省理工学院经济学教授纳撒尼尔-亨德伦和哈佛大学经济学家拉吉-切蒂的研究，1940年出生的儿童中约有90%的人最终比他们的父母生活得更好，但在20世纪80年代出生的儿童中，只有约一半的人能够这样说。亨德伦说，从收入增长中位数来看，年轻一代的情况似乎相似，但由于低收入美国人的工资增长速度超过了其他收入人群，他们的收入在新冠时期后可能仅仅略有增长。
根据麻省理工学院经济学教授纳撒尼尔-亨德伦和哈佛大学经济学家拉吉-切蒂的研究，1940年出生的儿童中约有90%的人最终比他们的父母生活得更好，但在20世纪80年代出生的儿童中，只有约一半的人能够这样说。亨德伦说，从收入增长中位数来看，年轻一代的情况似乎相似，但由于低收入美国人的工资增长速度超过了其他收入人群，他们的收入在新冠时期后可能仅仅略有增长。
“It’s still a coin flip whether or not you’ll earn more than your parents, but mobility probably hit a record low in the early 2020s,” Hendren says.
亨德伦说：“你的收入是否会超过你的父母，还是个未知数，但流动性可能会在2020年代初创下新低。”
亨德伦说：“你的收入是否会超过你的父母，还是个未知数，但流动性可能会在2020年代初创下新低。”
Chetty looks at the American dream through the lens of how difficult it is for someone starting in a poor family to reach the middle class. For white Americans in particular, that goal has become significantly more challenging over the past 15 years, he says.
切蒂从一个贫困家庭出身的人进入中产阶级有多难的角度来审视美国梦。他说，特别是对于美国白人来说，在过去的15年里，这一目标变得更具挑战性。
切蒂从一个贫困家庭出身的人进入中产阶级有多难的角度来审视美国梦。他说，特别是对于美国白人来说，在过去的15年里，这一目标变得更具挑战性。
“People are right to feel that the American dream has become harder to achieve both in terms of their chances of doing better than their parents and their chances of rising out of poverty,” Chetty says.
切蒂说：“人们有理由感到，美国梦变得更加难以实现，这既体现在他们比父母过得更好的机会上，也体现在他们摆脱贫困的机会上。”
切蒂说：“人们有理由感到，美国梦变得更加难以实现，这既体现在他们比父母过得更好的机会上，也体现在他们摆脱贫困的机会上。”
A home of one’s own
一个属于自己的家
一个属于自己的家
Richard Thomas and Cherish Celetti were sure they had pulled off their own version of the American dream when they bought a five-bedroom split-level in Mount Vernon, N.Y., for $612,000 in 2017.
理查德-托马斯和切利什-塞莱蒂2017年以61.2万美元的价格在纽约州芒特弗农买下了一套五居室的复式楼，他们确信自己已经实现了自己版本的美国梦。
理查德-托马斯和切利什-塞莱蒂2017年以61.2万美元的价格在纽约州芒特弗农买下了一套五居室的复式楼，他们确信自己已经实现了自己版本的美国梦。
“It was like everything was going in the right direction,” says Celetti, a 42-year-old lawyer who grew up poor among nine siblings.
42岁的律师塞莱蒂，在九个兄弟姐妹中长大，家境贫寒，他说：”好像一切都朝着正确的方向发展。“
42岁的律师塞莱蒂，在九个兄弟姐妹中长大，家境贫寒，他说：”好像一切都朝着正确的方向发展。“
插图：理查德-托马斯不得不应对不断上涨的成本，这可能使他难以保住自己的房子。
Buying her first house not only meant the couple’s children, now 8 and 11, could have their own bedrooms—a luxury both Thomas and Celetti used to pine for—but also that they had space to take in Celetti’s mom, Diane Thompson, and 20-year-old sister.
买下自己的第一套房子，不仅意味着这对夫妇的孩子（现在分别是8岁和11岁）可以拥有自己的卧室--这是托马斯和塞莱蒂曾经梦寐以求的奢望，而且还意味着他们有空间接纳塞莱蒂的母亲戴安娜-汤普森和20岁的妹妹。
买下自己的第一套房子，不仅意味着这对夫妇的孩子（现在分别是8岁和11岁）可以拥有自己的卧室--这是托马斯和塞莱蒂曾经梦寐以求的奢望，而且还意味着他们有空间接纳塞莱蒂的母亲戴安娜-汤普森和20岁的妹妹。
The couple’s $5,400 mortgage, including $689 in private mortgage insurance, was tight but doable, between Celetti’s salary and her husband’s as mayor of the town at the time. But seemingly overnight, their energy costs doubled to more than $2,000 a month, and grocery prices, insurance and other bills for the family of now six surged.
这对夫妇的按揭贷款为5400美元，其中包括689美元的私人抵押贷款保险，介于塞莱蒂的工资和她当时担任镇长的丈夫收入之间，虽然拮据，但还能应付。但似乎在一夜之间，他们的能源成本翻了一番，达到每月2000多美元，六口之家的杂货价格、保险和其他费用也飙升。
这对夫妇的按揭贷款为5400美元，其中包括689美元的私人抵押贷款保险，介于塞莱蒂的工资和她当时担任镇长的丈夫收入之间，虽然拮据，但还能应付。但似乎在一夜之间，他们的能源成本翻了一番，达到每月2000多美元，六口之家的杂货价格、保险和其他费用也飙升。
Thomas was forced to resign as mayor and ordered to pay a fine after pleading guilty in July 2019 to stealing $12,900 from his campaign. He says he only took the plea deal because he couldn’t afford to fight the charge. He now works in public relations.
托马斯于2019年7月承认从竞选活动中窃取了12900美元，被迫辞去市长职务，并被勒令支付罚款。他说，他接受认罪协议只是因为他无力对抗指控。他现在从事公共关系工作。
托马斯于2019年7月承认从竞选活动中窃取了12900美元，被迫辞去市长职务，并被勒令支付罚款。他说，他接受认罪协议只是因为他无力对抗指控。他现在从事公共关系工作。
Both Thomas and Celetti lowered their retirement contributions to near zero, scrapped plans for vacations and started setting the thermostat above 80 degrees in the summer and below 65 in the winter. They know selling the house—which has more than doubled in value—would be their best bet, but don’t know where they would go if they left.
托马斯和塞莱蒂的退休金都降至近乎零的程度，并取消了度假计划，并开始将恒温器的温度设置为夏季高于80华氏度（26.6摄氏度），冬季低于65华氏度（18.3摄氏度）。他们知道卖掉房子是最好的选择，因为房子的价值已经翻了一番还多，但他们不知道离开后会去哪里。
托马斯和塞莱蒂的退休金都降至近乎零的程度，并取消了度假计划，并开始将恒温器的温度设置为夏季高于80华氏度（26.6摄氏度），冬季低于65华氏度（18.3摄氏度）。他们知道卖掉房子是最好的选择，因为房子的价值已经翻了一番还多，但他们不知道离开后会去哪里。
“We want to stay in our community. We want to raise our kids here, but the dream of being able to do that really escapes us,” says Thomas. “We had the American dream. Now it’s the American nightmare because it feels like the country made us a promise and then took it away.”
“我们想留在我们的社区。我们想在这里养育我们的孩子，但我们真的无法实现这个梦想，”托马斯说。“我们曾经有过美国梦。现在却成了美国梦魇，因为感觉就像国家给了我们承诺，然后又收回了。”
“我们想留在我们的社区。我们想在这里养育我们的孩子，但我们真的无法实现这个梦想，”托马斯说。“我们曾经有过美国梦。现在却成了美国梦魇，因为感觉就像国家给了我们承诺，然后又收回了。”
插图：理查德-托马斯与岳母黛安-汤普森和儿子哈里森在家共进晚餐时聊天
Many are struggling to achieve their goals of homeownership at all. Owning a home was a record 47% more expensive than renting for the 12 months ending in June, according to research by commercial real-estate services firm CBRE. That is even after rents have skyrocketed—though the firm forecasts improvement over the next year.
还有许多人根本无法实现购房的目标。根据商业房地产服务公司世邦魏理仕的研究，在截至6月份的过去12个月里，拥有一套住房的成本比租房高出47%，创下历史新高。尽管该公司预测明年的情况会有所改善，但在房租飙升的情况下，自置居所的价格仍比租房高出47%。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
还有许多人根本无法实现购房的目标。根据商业房地产服务公司世邦魏理仕的研究，在截至6月份的过去12个月里，拥有一套住房的成本比租房高出47%，创下历史新高。尽管该公司预测明年的情况会有所改善，但在房租飙升的情况下，自置居所的价格仍比租房高出47%。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Lily Roark’s father bought the eight-bedroom New Orleans fixer-upper she grew up in for $160,000 in the early 2000s. When she went to look for houses in Louisville, Ky., with partner Jessica Holland this past spring, she was sure $250,000 would be a big enough budget for a starter with one or two bedrooms.
莉莉-罗克的父亲在2000年代初花16万美元买下了她在新奥尔良长大的那套有8个卧室的二手房。而去年春天，当她和搭档杰西卡-霍兰一起在肯塔基州路易斯维尔找房子的时候，她确信25万美元的预算才足够买一到两间卧室的起步房了。
莉莉-罗克的父亲在2000年代初花16万美元买下了她在新奥尔良长大的那套有8个卧室的二手房。而去年春天，当她和搭档杰西卡-霍兰一起在肯塔基州路易斯维尔找房子的时候，她确信25万美元的预算才足够买一到两间卧室的起步房了。
Instead, “we were looking at houses that had no walls and no floors,” says Holland, a 28-year-old second grade teacher.
可实际上，28岁的二年级教师霍兰说：“我们看到的是连墙带地板都没有的房子。”
可实际上，28岁的二年级教师霍兰说：“我们看到的是连墙带地板都没有的房子。”
插图：杰西卡-霍兰德和莉莉-罗克觉得她们在居住地买不起首套房。
Since Roark and Holland still want to give priority to saving for a house, the couple feels as though they can’t move forward with any of their other life goals—getting engaged, having a wedding and planning for children.
由于罗克和霍兰仍想优先考虑存钱买房，他们觉得自己无法推进其他生活目标--订婚、举办婚礼和要孩子。
由于罗克和霍兰仍想优先考虑存钱买房，他们觉得自己无法推进其他生活目标--订婚、举办婚礼和要孩子。
They are both frustrated that homeownership and family formation seemed so much more attainable for their parents, who made less than their combined income of around $100,000 at their ages.
他们都感到沮丧的是，对于他们的父母来说，拥有房屋和组建家庭似乎更容易实现，他们的总收入约10万美元，而他们的父母在他们这个年龄的时候挣的比他们还少。
他们都感到沮丧的是，对于他们的父母来说，拥有房屋和组建家庭似乎更容易实现，他们的总收入约10万美元，而他们的父母在他们这个年龄的时候挣的比他们还少。
“We’re doing everything right, we’re saving, we went to good schools, I have a master’s degree, and it’s still so hard,” Holland says.
霍兰说：“我们所做的一切都是正确的，我们省吃俭用，我们上的都是好学校，我还有一个硕士学位，但生活仍然如此艰难。”
霍兰说：“我们所做的一切都是正确的，我们省吃俭用，我们上的都是好学校，我还有一个硕士学位，但生活仍然如此艰难。”
The marriage question
婚姻问题
婚姻问题
In Des Plaines, Ill., 31-year-old Kevin Murphy believes that even finding a partner is more difficult than it used to be because of how expensive dating has become. He can’t always afford to pick up the check, and worries that he is less desirable than someone who makes more than his $95,000 yearly income or owns a home.
在伊利诺伊州德斯普兰斯，31岁的凯文-墨菲认为，由于约会变得如此昂贵，就连寻找伴侣也比以前困难。他并不总是能付得起支票，并担心自己不如那些年收入比他9.5万美元更高或拥有一套住房的人受欢迎。
在伊利诺伊州德斯普兰斯，31岁的凯文-墨菲认为，由于约会变得如此昂贵，就连寻找伴侣也比以前困难。他并不总是能付得起支票，并担心自己不如那些年收入比他9.5万美元更高或拥有一套住房的人受欢迎。
In the WSJ/NORC poll, 62% of people said marriage was either essential or important to their vision of the American dream, but only 47% of people think it is easily attainable.
在这项民意调查中，62%的人表示婚姻对他们的美国梦至关重要，但只有47%的人认为婚姻很容易实现。
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在这项民意调查中，62%的人表示婚姻对他们的美国梦至关重要，但只有47%的人认为婚姻很容易实现。
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“For me, the American dream feels further away than it’s ever been,” says Murphy, who works in government affairs for an energy company. “I worry about when I’m 50 or 60 and if nothing changes, I’m going to be totally screwed.”
在一家能源公司从事政府事务工作的墨菲说：“对我来说，美国梦感觉比以往任何时候都要遥远。我担心自己到了五六十岁，如果一切照旧，我就会彻底完蛋。”
在一家能源公司从事政府事务工作的墨菲说：“对我来说，美国梦感觉比以往任何时候都要遥远。我担心自己到了五六十岁，如果一切照旧，我就会彻底完蛋。”
He interacts with older Americans in that position every day in his side job as founder of the Jet City Coalition nonprofit, which provides free home maintenance to people in need.
他作为非营利组织“喷气城市联盟”的创始人，每天都与处于这种状况的美国老年人打交道，该组织为有需要的人提供免费的房屋维修服务。
他作为非营利组织“喷气城市联盟”的创始人，每天都与处于这种状况的美国老年人打交道，该组织为有需要的人提供免费的房屋维修服务。
“I take care of these people who trade insulin for groceries,” says Murphy of choosing which essentials to go without. He says he’s noticed a growing sense of hopelessness tied not only to high prices, but also to a seemingly more permanent state where “the math doesn’t make sense.”
墨菲说：“我照顾那些用胰岛素换日用品的人。他说，他注意到越来越多的人感到绝望，这不仅与高物价有关，还与“数学没有意义”这种看似更持久的状态有关。
墨菲说：“我照顾那些用胰岛素换日用品的人。他说，他注意到越来越多的人感到绝望，这不仅与高物价有关，还与“数学没有意义”这种看似更持久的状态有关。
Murphy is particularly worried about wealth inequality, which has increased over time, according to an analysis of Survey of Consumer Finances data by Scott Winship at right-leaning think tank the American Enterprise Institute.
根据右翼智库美国企业研究所的斯科特-温希普对《消费者财务状况调查》数据的分析，墨菲尤其担心财富不平等的问题，因为随着时间的推移，财富不平等的现象越来越严重。
根据右翼智库美国企业研究所的斯科特-温希普对《消费者财务状况调查》数据的分析，墨菲尤其担心财富不平等的问题，因为随着时间的推移，财富不平等的现象越来越严重。
In 1989, the typical net worth of the wealthiest 10% of households was just under 15 times the overall median net worth for all Americans, compared with almost 20 times that number in 2022. Though, Winship notes, median wealth is more than twice as high as it was in 1989 even after adjusting for inflation. The economy is working well for some people, including investors and many who bought homes when interest rates were low—creating a divide between higher-income Americans and most everyone else.
1989年，最富有的10%家庭的典型净资产略低于所有美国人总体净资产中位数的15倍，而2022年这一数字几乎到了20倍。不过，温希普指出，即使扣除通货膨胀因素，财富中位数也比1989年高出两倍多。对一些人来说，经济运行良好，包括投资者和许多在低利率时期买房的人，这就造成了高收入美国人与大多数其他人之间的鸿沟。
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1989年，最富有的10%家庭的典型净资产略低于所有美国人总体净资产中位数的15倍，而2022年这一数字几乎到了20倍。不过，温希普指出，即使扣除通货膨胀因素，财富中位数也比1989年高出两倍多。对一些人来说，经济运行良好，包括投资者和许多在低利率时期买房的人，这就造成了高收入美国人与大多数其他人之间的鸿沟。
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“It feels like my parents’ generation has ruined it for us,” Murphy says. “It’s such a stark case of the haves and have-nots.”
“感觉就像我父母那一代人毁了我们一样。”墨菲说，“这就是富人和穷人的鲜明对比。”
“感觉就像我父母那一代人毁了我们一样。”墨菲说，“这就是富人和穷人的鲜明对比。”
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America was an exceptional country because of a commitment to free markets and capitalism. Since Obama took office in 2008 America is on fast track to European style welfare socialism and government interventionism.
美国是一个特殊的国家，因为它致力于自由市场和资本主义。自2008年奥巴马上台以来，美国正快速走向欧洲式的福利社会主义和政府干预主义。
I concur with your conclusion that Democrat governance engenders mortal peril for American prosperity.
我同意您的结论，即民主党的治理给美国的繁荣带来了致命的危害。
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不过，在我看来，你的总体分析有些缺陷。原因如下：
正是全球主义和全球化将西方民族国家变成了新封建国家，在这些国家中，许多人的作用相当于农民，他们被剥夺了希望，过着奴役和劳作的生活，从而导致在国家财富中所占的份额越来越小。
传统封建主义与当前新封建主义的主要区别在于，今天的新农民可以选择更换主人，前提是农民能够找到一个愿意接纳农民并将其置于保护之下的新主人，美其名曰“工作”或“职位”。
当我的价值观形成时（20世纪50年代），或当我对西方文明的看法稳固下来时（20世纪60年代），如果有人说这种毁灭的状态将在半个多世纪后成为我们的终点，我会认为他是个疯子。
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这最好不是我们的终末地。
There are few free markets (many participants, low cost to enter industry) in America, In the U.S., most industries are oligopolies (less competition, higher costs, less innovation....).
美国几乎没有自由市场（即参与者众多，进入行业的成本较低的市场）。在美国，大多数行业都是寡头垄断的（竞争较少，成本较高，创新很少……）。
美国仍然是一个资本主义经济体，离马克思主义还差得远。
当军队意识到他们招募的大多数新兵都是少数族裔时，他们意识到他们需要培训一些新兵成为这些少数族裔的领导者，这就为多元化注入了动力。
同样的事情也发生在美国公司，他们需要少数族裔来管理少数族裔地区的业务，因为大多数客户和员工都是少数族裔。
America has long had the unfair advantage of having the USD as world reserve currency. It still has this unfair advantage. But it's no longer enough.
长期以来，美国一直拥有美元作为世界储备货币的不公平优势。现在它仍然拥有这种不公平的优势。但这优势已经不够用了。
The U.S. was "an exceptional country" in the 1950s/60s because of progressive taxation, unxs, pensions and affordable housing. Reagan ended that.
上世纪五六十年代，美国曾是一个“特殊的国家”，因为当时有累进税、工会、养老金和经济适用房。里根结束了这一切。
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They never discuss the choices these people make. They find subjects for the article that meet their narrative. What about my 24 year old plumber neighbor who works 70 hour weeks but also is a landlord who owns two homes? Can he fit into this article?
他们从不讨论这些人做出的选择。他们总是按图索骥。我那位24岁的水管工邻居每周工作70小时，但同时也是两套房的房东，他的情况又如何呢？他能写进这篇文章吗？
Exactly. I wish there was coverage of individuals who are doing it right. There are so many . Actual news and coverage instead of deciding on the topic and then finding examples to fit a specific narrative.
没错。我希望能报道那些做得对的人。毕竟有这么多例子。去写实际的新闻和报道，而不是先确定主题，然后再找出符合特定叙事的例子。
That is why they begin the article with statistics that show that social mobility in the United States is down. They are on very firm ground here. The case studies that they sext fit in with that statistical reality, though of course there are always people who do better than the norm.
这就是为什么他们在文章开头用统计数据说明美国的社会流动性在下降。他们在这里站稳了脚跟。他们选取的案例研究符合这一统计现实，当然，总有一些人比常人做得更好。
The problem with most social mobility is that it only looks are where you fit in the deciles, not how much better the decile is than before. For instance, how many new homeowners would think they were living the American Dream if they could buy a 750 sq ft Levittown house - two bedrooms, one bathroom, a kitchen, and a living room. No washer and dryer, and probably metal cabinets and linoleum counter tops. And yet 70 years ago that was the Living the middle class Dream. Would you rather be in that middle class or today's middle class?
大多数社会流动性的问题在于，它只看你在十分位（注：将数据按照大小顺序排序后,把数据分割成十等分的九个分割点上的数值）中的位置，而不是现在的十分位比以前的好多少。例如，如果新房主能买到莱维敦750平方英尺的房子--两间卧室、一间浴室、一间厨房和一间客厅，有多少人会认为自己实现了“美国梦”。没有洗衣机和烘干机，可能还有金属橱柜和油毡台面。然而在70年前，这就是中产阶级的“生活梦想”。你愿意成为那时候的中产阶级，还是今天的中产阶级？
It would be helpful to read an article that discusses what are the attributes of the “people who do better than the norm,” and whether those attributes could be acquired or cultivated by a greater percentage of people than is currently the case. In particular, it would be helpful to know to what extent people’s choices put them on the path to limited or downward social mobility.
如果能读到一篇文章，讨论“比常人做得更好的人”的特质是什么，以及这些特质是否可以被更多的人获得或培养，而不是像现在这种文章。特别是，了解人们的选择在多大程度上使他们走上了社会流动受阻或向下流动的道路，会更加有所帮助。
例如，多年来，我给许多行业人员的开了发票，包括承包商、电工、水管工、汽车修理工、暖通空调技术人员、家电技术人员、园艺师、石匠、房屋粉刷匠、玻璃工、化粪池技术人员、扫雪机技术人员，以及负责安装和维修我的设备并让我的500加仑丙烷罐保持满状态的房屋和水暖工作人员。他们的技能需求量很大，而许多大学毕业生的情况并非如此。
我猜想，如果一个人不选择从事这样的行业，而是选择去大学攻读学位，主修“妇女、性别与性研究”之类的专业（在纽约州立大学新帕尔兹分校确实可以这样做），那么他将面临相当大的风险，最终走上社会流动受阻或向下流动的道路。
I think we always go back to the decades after WW2 when the US was the only industrialized nation left standing and we enjoyed the benefits of that. Most Americans could get a factory job and get paid enough to live a middle class life and afford to send their kids to college.
我认为，我们总要追溯到二战后的那几十年，那时美国是仅存的工业化国家，我们享受着工业化带来的好处。大多数美国人都能在工厂找到一份工作，拿到足够的薪水，过上中产阶级的生活，供得起孩子上大学。
这是20世纪80年代美国以外的记忆，促使我们很多人来到美国，认为在这里出人头地比在一个拥有12亿人口、蛋糕很小的国家竞争要容易得多。
你说得没错，美国仍然是一个梦想，只要努力就能实现。但对于那些不思进取、不想冒险或付出努力的人来说，就不那么容易了。
美国梦还活着，也许实现起来有点困难，但它还活着。也许除了加利福尼亚，全美国都是如此。
It comes down to choices people make and what they're willing to sacrifice in the short term to have a better long term outcome. Young people are getting bad advice starting out and aren't sufficiently educated in personal finance topics to maximize success which leads to these bad choices.
这归结于人们做出的选择，以及他们愿意在短期内牺牲什么来换取更好的长期结果。年轻人一开始就会得到一些糟糕的建议，他们在个人理财方面的知识不足，无法最大限度地获得成功，从而导致了这些糟糕的选择。
“those goals are tough to achieve even with hard work”
“即使努力工作，这些目标也很难实现”
没人敢说这很容易。我在大萧条时代的父亲知道其中的秘诀：按次序毕业、结婚、生子。早上5:30出门，晚上6:30回家。如此重复43年。优先考虑家人的需要，而不是自己的需要（例如，在80岁时才买了第一辆新车），并将收入的15%用于储蓄/投资。这样，你的5个孩子就不用借钱上大学了，而你和妻子在69.8年的婚姻生活中也永远不用离开家去养老院。
现代人的期望与日俱增，但取得成就的决心却未曾改变。我父亲常说：“别光想，要去做！”
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Agreed. My father,. without a college education, preached for me to get a degree. I did, three of them. I did not get married until I knew I could afford to do so, as well as own a house and a car. Also, having multiple children without the means to effectively support them is irresponsible. Kids now seem to want everything their parents have without working and saving for it.
同意。我的父亲，没有受过大学教育，却一直劝我拿到学位。我做到了，三个学位到手。在我知道自己有能力结婚并拥有房子和汽车之前，我没有结婚。此外，在没有能力有效抚养多个孩子的情况下生育孩子是不负责任的。现在的孩子似乎想拥有父母所拥有的一切，而不想去工作和储蓄。
The concept of not having multiple children without the means to support them is, in itself, a viewpoint of the affluent. Poorer people have more children as a means of having security for their future. It is an entirely different mindset and reality. It is the good fortune of the exceptional who may be born poorer to be able to rise from this. Most simply can not. Like him or not, JD Vance is a good example.
没有能力抚养多个孩子就不生的观念本身就是富人的观点。穷人多生孩子是为了将来有保障。这是完全不同的心态和现实。出身贫穷的人能够摆脱贫穷，是他们的幸运。大多数人根本无法做到。不管你喜不喜欢，JD-万斯就是一个很好的例子。
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Having multiple children is a holdover from our former agrarian society where multiple children were useful in performing work on the farm. Since the industrial revolution and child labor laws, children have become a financial liability, and their support needs to be viewed as such. In other words, don't have them until you can support them. Of course, a number of people about whom you speak want the welfare money. Those people are trying to game the system, without much regard for their offspring's welfare later in their lives.
多子女是我们以前的农业社会遗留下来的产物，在当时的农业社会中，多子女在农活中是非常有用的。自工业革命和童工法实施以来，孩子已成为一种经济负担，因此也需要将抚养孩子视为一种经济负担。换句话说，在你有能力抚养他们之前，不要生他们。当然，你所说的很多人都想要福利金。这些人试图玩弄福利制度，却不太顾及他们后代日后的福利。
Exceptional people will always find a way to succeed, no matter what the issue or obstacle. We cannot look at the example of people who may have exceptional ability and apply those standards to the population at large. One needs to look at what is attainable for average people who put in an average effort.
无论遇到什么问题或障碍，出类拔萃的人总会找到成功的途径。我们不能以能力出众的人为例，将这些标准套用在普通人身上。我们需要看看付出一般努力的普通人可以达到的目标。
How is completing your education, getting married, and working steadily at your job while you prioritize your family financially "exceptional?" If this is not "average" behavior, there's no mystery as to why people are struggling.
完成学业、结婚、稳定地工作，同时在经济上优先考虑家庭，这算得上“出类拔萃”吗？如果这不是“一般”行为，那么人们为什么会陷入困境也就不难理解了。
Agree. But I think the point is that even doing those things is not always sufficient for many people. And remember that a society won't function if everybody has a job the requires higher education. We need people to do trade work, and unskilled labor. There was a time when even these people could afford a less expensive home. Not any more.
同意。但我认为问题的关键在于，对很多人来说，即使做了这些事情也不一定足够。请记住，如果每个人都从事需要高等教育的工作，社会就无法运转。我们需要有人从事贸易工作和非技术性劳动。曾几何时，即使这些人也能买得起不那么昂贵的房子。现在不一样了。
This is why the USA is great. Exceptional people can practice their exceptionalism, not hindered by the average efforts and abilities.
这就是美国伟大的原因。卓越的人可以实践他们的卓越，而不会受到普通人的努力和能力的阻碍。
Agree completely. But then we must also accept that the US is not really a country designed to take care of the population as a whole. It is the Land of Opportunity where the individual can make it big with the right combination of talent, hard work and luck. There does, however, need to be at least some degree of a societal safety net.
完全同意。但我们也必须承认，美国并不是一个真正旨在照顾全体人民的国家。美国是一个充满机遇的国度，在这里，只要天赋、努力和运气兼备，个人就能大展宏图。然而，至少需要有一定程度的社会安全网。
No, we are hindered by a class system that is decided by what schools you attend. Prep school students have a huge advantage in the college admission process leading them to ivies. These ivies lead them to highly paid elite jobs immediately, no years of hard work for them. They work long hours, but so did I in advertising and I only made $50K. The reality is only the elites and the upper middle class are winning and it's because those classes control the government.
不，我们受到了阶级制度的阻碍，而阶级制度是由你就读的学校决定的。预科学校的学生在大学录取过程中拥有巨大优势，可以进入常春藤名校。这些常春藤学校的学生可以立即找到高薪的精英工作，而不需要他们付出多年的努力。他们的工作时间很长，但我在广告业也是如此，我只赚了5万美元。现实情况是，只有精英和中上层阶级才能获胜，这是因为这些阶级控制着政府。
Isn't that what the debate between the parties is about, how the government can best assist average people? Allow the private sector to invest in industries that provide jobs while providing a basic safety net or, invest in labor productivity and provide an extensive safety net while regulating how the private sector functions?
这不正是两党争论的焦点吗，政府如何才能最好地帮助普通人？是允许私营部门投资于提供就业的行业，同时提供基本的安全网，还是投资于劳动生产率，提供广泛的安全网，同时监管私营部门如何运作？
OK, an admitted Boomer here. These articles makes me sick. They act like this is the first generation who didn't get everything it wants, when it wants it... as though somehow the earlier generations just "wished it" and it happened.
好吧，我是一个公认的婴儿潮一代。这些文章让我感到恶心。他们表现得好像这是第一代没有在想要的时候得到想要的一切的人……好像前几代人只是“希望”得到它，然后就得到了。
为了最终能够进入投资届，我做了多年全职工作，加上所有能得到的加班费，上了全日制夜校，牺牲了很多年。我拒绝积累债务，当然也拒绝为了一个学位而积累学生债务。而且，多年前我们都知道，学位并不是通往成功的门票，它只是一扇开启大门的钥匙。那时，你必须真正为雇主做些有价值的事情。我展望未来……是指十年或二十年……而不是三四年的未来。我参了军，退伍后利用美国大兵法案为我的妻子和孩子在一个四合院里买了一套800平方英尺的两室一厅的小房子，作为我的第一套住房。
看吧：我现在有孩子和孙子，我很清楚他们的态度，知道什么是可能的，什么是不可能的。当你在成长过程中认为自己有权拥有父母拥有的一切……，并且现在就拥有……，那么你就会认为自己有权获得成功。这只是机会，并不是就一定有结果。
因为房价一直取决于你居住的地方，所以我几次搬家，搬到了能给我带来经济优势的地方。我冒了一些风险，对自己下了赌注，有时赢了，有时输了。这就是生活啊。
Bravo. Sounds a lot like my life experience. I newer once worried about "wealth inequality", I had to earn my own. Invest in yourself, take any and all projects to learn for your advancement, and if you can't achieve it, go on your own.
好极了。听起来很像我的人生经历。我曾经担心过“贫富不均"，但我必须自己去争取。投资于自己，参加任何和所有项目，为自己的进步而学习，如果无法实现，就自己去做。
I agree with most of what you've written. You've sacrificed and worked hard. So have my parents (boomers) and so have I. But something here is overlooked, which is our national debt, now at about $35 Trillion. The boomer generation has been running the US government for the past couple decades, and they have borrowed money to push the economy forward, and now the bill is coming due on the next generation. That debt burden and the tax burden and also the growing social security insolvency problem is going to cause more financial difficulty for the next generation.
我同意你写的大部分内容。你们做出了牺牲，努力工作。但有一点被忽视了，那就是我们的国债，现在大约有35万亿美元。在过去的几十年里，“婴儿潮一代”一直在管理美国政府，他们借钱推动经济发展，而现在，这笔账单要由下一代来偿还了。债务负担、税收负担以及日益严重的社会保障破产问题将给下一代带来更多的财政困难。
The problem is not our lifestyle, for which the American quality of life and lifestyle is about as good as any human 'tribe' in history (granted some areas of the country are better than others, but, ehh, what to you want with 330M people?).
问题不在于我们的生活方式，美国人的生活质量和生活方式不亚于历史上任何一个人类“部落”（当然，美国的某些地区比其他地区要好，但是，毕竟3.3亿人呢，你还想要怎样？）
这是“获得更多”、“拥有更多”的愿望，在很大程度上是由社交媒体驱动的，在社交媒体上，我们看到别人在异国他乡，我们看到其他人驾驶新车或拥有最新的iPhone，穿着昂贵的精品服装，在沙龙定期进行美甲和足疗等。
问题不在于美国梦无法实现。而是“美国梦”变得荒谬可笑。即使是“穷人”或“贫困者”也比世界上大多数人过得好。请记住，贫困是一个数字……是收入/财富表中最底层的10%。根据这个定义，人们是无法“摆脱贫困”的。
过去，人们满足于少得多的东西。当我们还是孩子的时候，我们和别人共用卧室，家里只有一个卫生间（6口之家），没有洗碗机，而且我们确实有点穷。但老实说，我不记得抱怨过什么，因为我觉得我们（至少我和我的兄弟姐妹们）根本不知道什么是更好的，也真的不在乎。
I think this is the best post. An example used above was having to set the air conditioner at 80 in the summer. I imagine most people on this thread over 50 years old grew up without AC and opened windows or used a fan. There are many first world European countries that are still like that...
我认为这是最好的帖子。上面提到的一个例子是，夏天不得不把空调调到80华氏度。我想在这个话题中，大多数50岁以上的人在没有空调的情况下长大，打开窗户或使用风扇。很多第一世界的欧洲国家仍然是这样……
We just returned from a European vacation. Very little AC. We were surprised at the locals sitting along the Danube in the evenings, hoping for a breeze. Few shops were air conditioned, and we were told that most homes only have a window unit in the master bedroom, if any AC at all. And yet in America, we consider a house without AC to be nearly barbaric. And a thermostat set at 80 is sacrificial.
我们刚从欧洲度假回来。空调很少。我们对当地人晚上坐在多瑙河畔吹风感到惊讶。很少有商店装有空调，而且我们被告知，即使有空调，大多数家庭也只是在主卧室安装了一台。然而在美国，我们认为没有空调的房子几乎是残忍的。把空调调到80度是一种牺牲。