The ongoing deceleration in demand for electric vehicles is an early warning signal of a shakeout in the nascent industry, according to Wharton management professor John Paul MacDuffie, who is also director of Wharton’s Program on Vehicle and Mobility Innovation. EV leader Tesla is laying off more than a tenth of its global workforce, and other manufacturers like Lucid and Rivian have reported losses. Government subsidies have helped cushion those impacts, and more support by way of higher tariffs on imported EVs is on the way.

沃顿商学院车辆与移动创新项目主任、管理学教授约翰·保罗·麦克达菲表示，电动汽车需求的持续放缓是这一新兴行业即将经历大洗牌的早期预警信号。电动汽车领导厂商特斯拉正在裁减其全球员工超过十分之一，其他制造商如Lucid和Rivian也报告了亏损。政府补贴在一定程度上缓解了这些影响，而通过提高进口电动汽车关税等更多支持措施也即将到来。

“What’s going on with electrification transition and the demand for electric vehicles … is a reset that’s almost like the starting up of a new industry,” MacDuffie said on the Wharton Business Daily radio show that airs on SiriusXM. (Listen to the podcast.) He pointed to predictions of a shakeout and consolidation within China’s EV industry, and said, “I’m sure we’ll see it here [in the U.S.], too.”

麦克达菲在SiriusXM播出的沃顿商学院每日商业电台节目中表示：“电气化转型和电动汽车需求的现状……就像是一种重置，几乎相当于一个新行业的启动。” 他提到中国电动汽车行业内的洗牌和整合预测，并表示：“我相信我们也会在美国看到类似的情况。”

For sure, any new industry will see many casualties as it evolves. “One out of 10 is considered a decent success ratio for entrepreneurial ventures of any kind,” especially in industries such as EVs that call for large capital requirements, MacDuffie said.

可以肯定的是，任何新兴行业在发展过程中都会出现许多失败者。麦克达菲说，“对于任何类型的创业企业来说，十分之一的成功率都被认为是不错的”，尤其是在需要大量资本投入的电动汽车等行业。

Vertical Integration Is Key to Success

垂直整合是成功的关键

According to MacDuffie, vertically integrated EV makers like Tesla and China’s BYD can ride out a shakeout because they control large parts of their supply chains. Tesla, for instance, makes EV batteries and has invested in battery storage; it also coped with the recent global semiconductor shortage by redesigning its software to support alternative chips, as a Forbes report pointed out. “You have more control, you can present a more coherent product and a more coherent brand and identity if you control the whole [manufacturing chain],” MacDuffie said.

根据麦克达菲的说法，像特斯拉和中国比亚迪这样的垂直整合电动汽车制造商可以在行业动荡中幸存下来，因为它们控制着供应链的大部分。举例来说，特斯拉制造电动汽车电池并投资于电池储能；它还通过重新设计软件以支持替代芯片，应对了最近的全球半导体短缺问题，正如《福布斯》报告中指出的那样。麦克达菲说：“如果你控制了整个（制造链），你会有更多的控制权，你可以推出更连贯的产品、更连贯的品牌和标识。”

Among the likely EV casualties that MacDuffie pointed to is Fisker, which appears to be on the verge of bankruptcy. But he expected Rivian, another startup that is also facing challenges, to survive, because it has an “appealing product that’s been well received,” which will help it continue to draw investment.

麦克达菲指出，可能成为电动汽车行业牺牲者的公司之一是Fisker，该公司似乎正处于破产的边缘。但他预计另一个也面临挑战的初创公司Rivian将会存活下来，因为它有“备受欢迎的吸引人的产品”，这将有助于它继续吸引投资。

Legacy Automakers Have an Advantage

传统汽车制造商具有优势

Established automakers with EV products have another advantage over EV startups in that they can ride out the current demand slowdown by shifting to hybrid vehicles, MacDuffie noted. Several legacy automakers such as General Motors, Honda, Toyota, and Ford have taken such a portfolio approach to increase their hybrid offerings.

拥有电动汽车产品的老牌汽车制造商相比电动汽车初创公司还有一个优势，那就是它们可以通过转向混合动力汽车来应对当前需求的放缓，麦克达菲表示。几家传统汽车制造商如通用汽车、本田、丰田和福特已经采取了这种多元化的策略来增加其混合动力汽车的供应。
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Established automakers have another advantage over EV startups. “They already know how to do the design, the build, the supply chain, and the distribution,” MacDuffie continued. They also have the wherewithal to cross-subsidize their forays into new technology such as EVs, he added. “They can keep selling their existing product line and use those profits to cross-subsidize. That advantage is not available to a startup.” Such an advantage is especially useful when technology transitions get complicated or when demand growth slows down, he noted.

老牌汽车制造商相较于电动汽车初创公司还有另一个优势。“他们已经知道如何进行设计、制造、供应链和分销，”麦达菲继续说道。他们也有财力通过交叉补贴来支持他们对新技术（如电动汽车）的探索，他补充道。“他们可以继续销售现有的产品线，并利用这些利润进行交叉补贴。这个优势对于初创公司来说是不存在的。”他指出，当技术转型变得复杂或需求增长放缓时，这种优势尤其有用。
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The demand slowdown hasn’t deterred new EV startups, especially those based on autonomous vehicle technology. MacDuffie pointed to Amazon subsidiary Zoox, an autonomous electric vehicle firm that is aiming for the robotaxi market. Another well-heeled EV startup is Aurora, an autonomous trucking company with backing from both Amazon and Toyota. “Where there’s a deep-pocketed investor that has a stake in you continuing, then you’re more likely to make it through this period of ferment than if you’re simply relying on the public markets,” MacDuffie said.

需求放缓并没有阻止新的电动汽车初创企业，特别是那些基于自动驾驶技术的初创公司。麦克达菲指出，亚马逊子公司Zoox是一家面向机器人出租车市场的自动驾驶电动汽车公司。另一家资金雄厚的电动汽车初创企业是Aurora，这是一家自动驾驶卡车公司，得到了亚马逊和丰田的支持。麦克达菲表示，“如果有一个财力雄厚的投资者支持你继续前行，那么你比单纯依赖公开市场更有可能度过这个动荡时期。”

Building Supply Chains from Scratch

从零开始建立供应链

Unlike with consumer electronics where an Apple could tap into an existing supply chain, the EV industry didn’t have “a bunch of contract manufacturing capacity sitting around just waiting for a great car design” that somebody comes up with, MacDuffie noted. The EV industry has faced hurdles in building out that supply chain from scratch. It has been hard for EV companies to obtain debt financing or venture capital financing because of the long wait before they can roll out their products and make profits, he explained.

麦克达菲指出，与苹果可以利用现有供应链的消费电子产品不同，电动汽车行业没有“一堆合同制造能力，只是坐在那里等待一个伟大的汽车设计”。电动汽车行业在从零开始建立供应链方面遇到了困难。他解释说，由于在推出产品并实现盈利之前需要长时间等待，电动汽车公司很难获得债务融资或风险资本融资。

As a consequence, companies like Tesla and Rivian have had to rely on the public capital markets to finance those investments, but that has made them particularly sensitive to the expectations of equity investors, MacDuffie noted. “Investors and everyone watching the stock market are hanging on every announcement about your sales. Anytime you don’t meet a sales projection, the stock tanks.” Not surprisingly, the drop in demand for EVs has hurt the stock prices of Tesla, Rivian and Nio.

因此，特斯拉和Rivian等公司不得不依赖公共资本市场来为这些投资提供资金，但这也使它们对股权投资者的期望特别敏感。“投资者和所有关注股市的人都紧盯着你关于销售的每一个公告。任何时候你没有达到销售预期，股票就会暴跌。” 不出所料，电动汽车需求的下降已经影响到了特斯拉、Rivian和蔚来的股价。

Policy Support Vital for EV Makers

政策支持对电动汽车制造商至关重要

Government support has been crucial for the EV industry in these trying times. “If there were not government subsidies and priorities to advance the electrification transition, then I don’t think you would see all of the world’s automakers making big strategic bets on electrification, and you wouldn’t see as many startups either,” MacDuffie said. “They have the confidence that this transition will happen with so much government push behind it.”

在这个艰难时期，政府的支持对电动汽车行业至关重要。麦克达菲称：“如果没有政府的补贴和推进电气化转型的优先政策，我认为你不会看到所有世界汽车制造商在电气化上做出重大战略押注，也不会看到那么多初创企业。他们有信心，在政府的大力推动下，这一转型将会实现。”

At the same time, EV makers in the U.S. face a degree of policy uncertainty unlike their counterparts in China. “In the U.S., if there’s a change in political party, and a change in who’s in the White House, then we may see policy swings much more,” he said. “It makes American EV companies subject to more volatility and more risk because, what if all the subsidies are taken away all of a sudden in a few years?”

与此同时，与中国同行不同，美国的电动汽车制造商面临着一定程度的政策不确定性。“在美国，如果政党发生变化，白宫的领导人也会发生变化，那么我们可能会看到更大的政策波动，这使得美国的电动汽车公司面临更多的波动性和风险，因为如果几年后所有的补贴突然取消怎么办？”

On a recent trip to Germany, MacDuffie found that EV makers there are confident that their policymakers are committed to supporting the electrification of transportation; they are therefore surer of making their investments.

在最近一次德国之行中，麦克达菲发现当地的电动汽车制造商对政策制定者致力于支持交通电气化充满信心；因此，他们对投资更加确定。

MacDuffie said the impending consolidation among EV makers is a familiar theme for the auto industry. He recalled that after the birth of the auto industry in the early 1900s, there were hundreds of auto companies, but they consolidated into five or six companies in the 1920s and 1930s, and eventually into the Big Three of General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler (now part of Stellantis).

电动汽车制造商即将到来的整合是汽车行业的一个熟悉主题。他回忆说，在20世纪初汽车行业诞生后，有数百家汽车公司，但在20世纪20年代和30年代整合成了五六家公司，最终形成了通用汽车、福特和克莱斯勒（现在属于Stellantis）的三大巨头。

As the EV industry braces for a shakeout, financial staying power will make the difference. “Anybody who succeeds in persuading the various sources of capital to come together, as Elon Musk did very well from lots of sources [for Tesla], you have more chance to survive,” he continued. “But any time you lose one of those incoming streams of capital, boy, you’re much more on the edge.”

随着电动汽车行业准备迎接一场洗牌，财务持久力将成为关键。“任何成功说服各种资本来源聚集在一起的人，就像埃隆·马斯克为特斯拉所做的那样，你就更有可能生存下来，”他继续说道。“但只要你失去其中一个资本流入渠道，你就会更加岌岌可危。”

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