如果马来西亚入侵新加坡会发生什么？
What would happen if Malaysia invades Singapore?
译文简介
网友：这里存在一些假设，认为马来西亚可以入侵新加坡，这显然不现实。按照惯例，侵略者需要至少是防守方军力三倍的兵力。而新加坡的现役军人数量是马来西亚的四倍。新加坡的国防开支是马来西亚的两倍以上，人均开支更是遥遥领先。更重要的是，两国在科技方面存在巨大差距。
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马来西亚输定了！
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The presumption here is that Malaysia can invade Singapore, which is unrealistic. Conventional wisdom is that an aggressor requires at least three times the size of the defending force. Singapore’s active military is four times Malaysia’s. Singapore’s defence spending is more than twice, with per capita spending that dwarfs Malaysia. And all this, before we consider the vast technological disparity.
这里存在一些假设，认为马来西亚可以入侵新加坡，这显然不现实。按照惯例，侵略者需要至少是防守方军力三倍的兵力。而新加坡的现役军人数量是马来西亚的四倍。新加坡的国防开支是马来西亚的两倍以上，人均开支更是遥遥领先。更重要的是，两国在科技方面存在巨大差距。
马来西亚甚至无法阻止来自民答那峨岛的武装分子越境。他们没有可靠的预警系统，没有有效的防御能力，也没有可靠的海上运输能力。由于普遍存在的腐败问题，他们甚至无法维护现有的军事力量。他们还能做什么？难道要步行穿过连接两国的关卡，然后让我们束手就擒吗？
马来西亚政客喜欢夸夸其谈，但就连马哈蒂尔·穆罕默德也曾公开表示，马来西亚无法赢得与新加坡的战争。他们的国防部长莫哈末沙布更是向全世界宣布，马来西亚空军有无法飞行的飞机、无法下潜的潜艇和没有接受过训练的士兵。马来西亚最接近入侵的方式可能是国内的种族和宗教紧张局势导致国家崩溃，然后成千上万的难民涌向新加坡边境。
The result : destruction of both Singapore and Malaysia, while neighboring countries like Thailand and Indonesia will gain much profit.
Malaysia won’t invade Singapore except for a suicide mission. Imagine like an extreme calamity happened there and the nation is on the brinks of total collapse. Then in order to raise unity among the remaining people and to divert the calamity, they will go on a suicide mission into Singapore.
Some people here believed that Singapore will prevail but it is not easy. They might be survived due to American intervention or so, and their armed forces is quite tough I guess. However, Singapore is a financial hub. That’s why a single case of successful terrorism perhaps will cause significant blow into their economy.
马来西亚入侵新加坡的结果就是：新加坡和马来西亚会两败俱伤，而泰国和印度尼西亚等邻国则从中获利。
马来西亚不会入侵新加坡，除非马来西亚要执行自杀式任务。比如马来西亚当地发生了一场极端灾难，国家处于全面崩溃的边缘。为了把民众团结起来，转移大家对灾难的注意力，他们前往新加坡执行自杀式任务。
有些人认为新加坡会获胜，但这并不容易。他们可能会因为美国的干预得以幸存，我猜他们的军队实力还是非常强大的。但新加坡只是一个金融中心。这就是一场成功实施的恐怖主义行动就能对他们的经济造成重大打击的原因。
Much my guess, the result will be like Iraq and Iran. No one gain.
而且，如果你提到的这种情况真的发生了，那么这些资金都会流向其他地方，要么是香港，要么是瑞士。有的人把新加坡拿来和以色列作比较，但这两个国家是完全不同的国家。以色列的领土更大，而新加坡只是马来亚半岛尖端的一块岛屿。这就意味着，敌人只需要摧毁一个点，整个新加坡就不再宜居了。
我认为，如果发生战争，结果会像伊拉克和伊朗一样。谁都捞不到好处。
There’s no doubt that a war would be very damaging to the reputation of the Malaysian government just as an invasion of Ukraine by Russia’s army has already damaged the reputation of the larger ex-Soviet republic by landmass. It perhaps may have been unsurprising that the Putin Administration vowed to slap sanctions on Western governmentsrf), an indication once again of the poor reputation of the Russian Government in many Western countries.
毫无疑问，战争将对马来西亚政府的声誉造成极大损害，就像俄罗斯军队入侵乌克兰的事实损害了这个前苏联共和国的声誉一样。普京政府发誓对西方政府实施制裁，并不令人意外，这再次说明西方国家普遍对俄罗斯政府评价不佳。
Malaysia would lose, definitely.. No doubt, the Malaysian military has become better ( for example, they’ve acquired sub, they didn’t have them in the past ).. Singapore is also very small, so it would be very easy to invade..
But soon, reality sets in and Malaysia will lose the game. Malaysia only started national service a few years ago. Singaporeans have had national service for decades, shortly after they broke up with Malaysia. Singapore has many more reservists.
马来西亚输定了。毋庸置疑，马来西亚军队确实变得更好了，他们现在有了潜艇，这是过去没有的…新加坡也很小，所以很容易被外敌入侵。
但很快，我们就会见证马来西亚输掉这场战争。马来西亚几年前才开始推行义务兵役制度。新加坡在从马来西亚分离出来后不久，就推行了义务兵役制度，至今已经持续几十年了。新加坡拥有数量更多的预备役军人。
You must be a foreigner to the region to ask this out-of-the -questoon scenario.
Malaysia and Singapore as most of the countries in that region don't resolve their conflicts with stupid military invasions. The culture there is about live and let live and co-operation for a win-win situation.
On the other hand, Malaysia and Singapore are essentially the same people , a beautiful blend of friendly and peace loving races ; Malays, Chinese, Indiands, and other aboriginal races. If you see them you cannot say from the look who is Singaporean and who is Malaysian. They look the same, they have the same culture, they eat the same food and they have been living together in peace for ages. Many Maysians have relatives in Singapore and vice versa.
你肯定是在这个地区生活的外国人，才会提出这种不现实的问题。
马来西亚和新加坡和该地区的大多数国家一样，不会采用愚蠢的军事入侵行动来解决冲突。亚洲地区的文化提倡的是互相包容，合作共赢。
另一方面，马来西亚和新加坡的人口本质上都是同胞，是友善、和平的民族的融合：马来人、华人、印度人和其他土著种族。你无法从外表上判断谁是新加坡人，谁是马来西亚人。他们有相同的长相，有相同的文化，吃相同的食物，多年来一直和睦相处。许多马来西亚人在新加坡有亲戚，反之亦然。
To Malaysia Singapore is an important neighbour, with whom they have a huge trade. The same is true for Singapore. The level of co-operation between the two countries is very high, and border between them is very very busy on daily basis.
就面积而言，马来西亚是一个人口中等的大国，它拥有的土地比实际需要的面积更大，人口稀少，增长率也非常健康。马来西亚不需要入侵任何国家。
对马来西亚来说，新加坡是一个重要的邻国，两国之间有着巨额的贸易往来。新加坡也是如此。两国之间的合作水平非常高，边境每天都非常繁忙。
Why not, when Malaysia and Singapore have in common more than what EU countries have in common.
是的，马来西亚和新加坡将来有可能再度统一，或者加入某个联盟。但这种情况并不是因为其中一国占领或入侵了另外一国……而是因为两国都想成为一个更为强大的联盟的一部分，就像欧盟一样，这对两国都有好处。
既然马来西亚和新加坡的共同点比欧盟国家的共同点还要多，那么他们为什么不结成联盟呢？
Honestly. Malaysia do not have enough firepower and equipment to defend their own against a mob as most of the stuff are dated back from WW2. The helis are dubbed flying coffins, jets with engines stolen etc and compare that against the southern state of Johor militia, Johor Military Force , JMF will win hands down, let alone attacking Singapore.
说实话，马来西亚并没有足够的武器和装备来自保，他们的大多数装备都是二战时期的老物件了。那些直升机被称为飞行棺材，喷气式飞机的发动机都被偷走了，再者，跟南部柔佛州的民兵和柔佛州的军事力量相比，柔佛州都可以轻松获胜，更不用说攻打新加坡了。
Only problem is ..Singapore may buy out the whole place given the 3.1x exchange rate…
据统计，马来西亚有30万男性，新加坡有8万现役军人和80万预备役军人。美国和新加坡的其他盟友会保持沉默吗？3000多辆重型坦克和装甲车辆对抗800个马来西亚人够厉害了吧？一切都是为了经济利益。马来西亚不会傻到攻击新加坡，新加坡也不会攻击马来西亚。
唯一的问题是……考虑到两国货币的汇率高达3.1倍，新加坡可能会买下整个地方。
This happens everyday at 7:00AM at the customs.
And then the reverse happens on a Saturday 7:00AM.
Welcome to warm neighbourly ties.
每天早上7点，海关都是这样的场面。
但周六早上7点，海关的情况又正好相反。
欢迎加入友好的睦邻关系。
Malaysia will not attack Singapore. Another overcrowded tiny island? No thanks, we already have Penang.
Plus it already takes a lot of concession for us to get rid of Singapore from Malaysia in 1969 (one sided water deal, etc), it will all be for nothing if we took Singapore back. Plus I am certain we will be itching to throw them out again after a couple of years.
But to entertain this A2A, I will say that it will not surprise Singapore. In anticipation of the escalated tension, Singapore will gradually mobilize its army & reserve. 24 hour before the planned attack by the Malaysian army, Singapore will make preemptive attack and establish Mersing line as a buffer zone from further hostilities.
马来西亚不会攻打新加坡的。新加坡只不过是一个人挤人的小岛罢了！哦，不用了，谢谢，我们马来西亚有槟城。
再加上我们在1969年把新加坡从马来西亚分离出去时，已经做出过很多让步了(单向供应淡水的交易等)，如果我们把新加坡收回来，这一切就都是白费功夫了。另外，我敢肯定，几年后我们就会迫不及待地想把它们扔出去。
但我要说的是，马来西亚如果攻打新加坡，新加坡也不会感到意外。如果新加坡觉察到局势升级，会着手调动军队和预备队。在马来西亚军队发动进攻的24小时前，新加坡就会先发制人，并建立默辛线作为进一步敌对行动的缓冲区。
How long can Singapore defend itself in case of war with Malaysia?
如果新加坡与马来西亚开战，新加坡能防御多长时间？
The one country that gave us out of the box solutions and a template to build up military strength was Israel . First , the best defence is an attack . Our strategic depth was non exstent so we cannot defend . For an offensive doctrine , two “iron fists “ were needed . One was a strong Air Force and second was a strong Armoured Corps and overall superiority also in terms of artillery .
新加坡独立时，曾向几个国家提出过同样的问题，“一个没有纵深的小国该如何自保”。这几个国家都没能提出任何解决方案(主要是印度和埃及，还有其他国家)。瑞士人告诉我们，也许我们可以考虑组建一支警察部队来取代军队，维护新加坡国内的安全。
唯一一个为我们提供了非常规解决方案和建立军事力量的样板的国家是以色列。首先，最好的防御就是进攻。我们的战略纵深是不存在，所以我们无法防御。但进攻主义需要有两个“铁拳”：一个是强大的空军，第二个是强大的装甲部队，在炮兵方面具有整体优势。
So Singapore’s Army when fully mobilised is several hundred thousand strong (500 k to 600 k at least) . Does it have a strong Air Force ?. It has the best Air Force in South East Asia .Armour and Artillery ? Singapore has both qualitative and quantitative advantages in those areas .
Defend ? Singapore will not be doing the defending .It will be whoever shows hostile intent who will be defending .
如何实现这一切？只有一支公民军队才能帮助一个小国在战争时期集结出一支庞大的军队。新加坡投入了庞大的资源来建立自己的军事力量，新加坡没有其他选择。
所以新加坡军队完全动员起来的时候有几十万人(至少50万到60万)。新加坡有强大的空军吗？它有东南亚最好的空军。新加坡的装甲和炮兵如何？新加坡在这些领域占据质量和数量上的优势。
防守？新加坡才不屑于防守呢。谁有敌意，谁就去防守吧。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
How quickly can Singapore take KL if it goes to war with Malaysia?
如果跟马来西亚开战，新加坡能多快拿下吉隆坡？
Five Power Defence Arrangements (FDPA), which both Singapore and Malaysia are members off. And this mean that it is virtually impossible for the two countries to declare war on each other.
Both countries’ economies are so interdependent of each other. So if war were to be declared, it would bring disastrous consequences overall to both nations.
你要记住一点：
《五国联防协议》中就包含了新加坡和马来西亚，这意味着两国不可能互相宣战。
两国经济的相互依赖程度很高。因此，如果宣战，将给两国带来灾难性的后果。
If you don’t believe me, the UK, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia and Singapore would conduct military training exercise with each other on a rather frequent basis. The aim is to bring interoperability between the Armed Forces of those 5 nations.
我从来都对那些唯恐天下不乱之辈的沙文主义行为感到好笑。我承认马来西亚军队的装备不如新加坡武装部队，但这并不意味着马来西亚就比新加坡弱。事实上，新加坡和马来西亚之间更多的是合作，而非对抗。
如果你不相信我的话，那么你可以看看英国、澳大利亚、新西兰、马来西亚和新加坡之间的军事演习，是非常频繁的。军事演习的目的就是让这五个国家的军队之间实现互通。