欧盟圈讨论：如果欧洲和俄罗斯开战，各国的具体战况可能会怎样？
How can you imagine your country's war against russia?
译文简介
（克罗地亚）鉴于地理因素，你们很可能被迫在喀尔巴阡山脉、巴尔干半岛的某个地方面对俄罗斯人，如果战局不利，则会在阿尔卑斯山北麓面对俄罗斯人。
正文翻译
Considering what you now see on the battlefield, your technologies, mobilization reserve and everything else. Some countries are small, but we are talking not only about victory, but in general how it will all be.
考虑你们现在看到的战场情况、你们的技术、动员、预备役和其他一切因素。有些国家很小，但我们谈论的不仅是胜败，而是总体上的局势发展。
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In a UK Vs Russia fight, it all depends on one thing: If the nukes are launched. It's Armageddon if they are. If it is strictly confined to conventional, then you would see the typical British response to any war. Go in overconfident and underfunded, win either a flashy victory or defeat, and then the military will finally get funded when things are already past the peak level of conflict, allowing the Brits to win at the negotiating table, and tiding over the military and the destruction of their funding once again until the next war.
（英）在一场英国对俄罗斯的战争中，一切都取决于一件事：是否发射核弹。如果发射了，那就会是末日大决战。如果仅限于常规战争，那你看到的就会是英国对任何战争的典型反应。在过度自信、资金不足的情况下参战，要么赢得一场华丽的胜利，要么战败，然后当局面已经超过了冲突的高峰时，军方最终将获得拨款，从而让英国人在谈判桌上获胜，让军方渡过难关，并再次把拨款搞黄，直到下一场战争来临。
↘希望诺兰导演能在有生之年把它拍成电影
↘（芬）确实，不过如果我读到的“英国为全面战争准备的弹药只够维持一星期”的说法是正确的，那英国就必须加大力度了。你是可以掌握一切你想要的主场优势，但没有补给你也还是会输。
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↘（爱尔兰）乌克兰在入侵前拥有全世界第14大军队，说成“三流军队”也太夸张了，绝不要低估你的敌人。欧洲就是轻敌才沦落到这步田地的，乌克兰之所以能生存下来，就是因为他们没有这样做。
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UK military is now soft due to downsizing, Putin knows this and the only deterrent UK now has is nuclear.
Macron understands this and this is why he's talking the way he does.
Germany finally understands what can happen but has no balls.
I live in Ireland we have no weapons.
如今的英国军队因为精简而变得很弱，普京明白这一点，英国现在唯一的威慑力量就是核武器。
马克龙明白这一点，所以他才会以那样的口气说话。
德国终于明白了会发生什么，但却没有胆魄。
我住在爱尔兰，我们没有武器。
I'm currently doing military service so not a day goes by without me imagining it.
But i have every confidence that we would come out of it on top, even without complete support from our NATO allies. We have spent the last 80 years preparing for that war, and that has not gone to waste. We have enough bunkers for every civilian in Finland, extensive preparation on how to convert the civilian industry for wartime production, plans to blow up every damn railroad and bridge the Russians could use.
（芬）我正服着兵役，所以我没有一天不在想象这件事。但我坚信，就算没有北约盟国的全力支持，我们也会笑到最后。在过去的八十年里，我们一直在为这场战争做准备，而这一切都没有白费。我们为芬兰的所有平民准备了足够的掩体，为民用工业转为战时生产做了大量的准备，还制定了炸毁可能被俄罗斯人利用的每一条铁路和桥梁的计划。
更让我坚信这一点的是俄罗斯在乌克兰令人发笑的表现，乌克兰可是一支进攻部队所能期望的最完美的战场了。相比之下，芬兰人烟稀少，遍布着无法穿越的密林。任何先头部队将被迫依赖少数几条道路之一，而我可以保证，我们很擅长阻断这些道路。芬兰仍然实行义务兵役制，这意味着我们能派出一支大约30万人的军队和大约90万人的预备队。这就足以匹敌俄罗斯期望的对芬攻势了。无论他们的人数有多可怕，我们都能应付。当我们手握10万件反坦克武器和10万枚反坦克地雷时，1万辆坦克就啥也不是了。更不用说俄罗斯军队毫不掩饰的腐败和无能了。
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在过去八十年里，芬兰之所以没有被俄罗斯入侵，唯一原因就是芬兰已经展示了自己的能力，以及在必要时与俄罗斯缠斗的意愿。我们是一个执拗的民族，就让我们管好自己的事情吧，这符合俄罗斯的利益。芬兰人可不会认为独立是理所当然的，我们愿意为捍卫独立而牺牲。
You get a chance to flip a coin, if it's heads, you get 10 000 dollars, but both of your legs are cut off and your nose is broken. If it's tails, the same happens but you get no money. So why the hell would you flip the coin? That is the equivalent of Russia choosing to invade Finland. It's in their best interest to do nothing.
总而言之，85年前我们已经证明了我们可以坚守自己的立场与他们抗衡，而且无论你怎么看，自那以后，局势的发展绝对是对我们有利的。
如你有机会抛硬币，如果正面朝上，你会得到1万美元，但你的双腿会被砍掉，鼻子会被打断。如果反面朝上，情况也一样，但你1分钱也得不到。那你究竟为什么还要抛硬币？俄罗斯选择入侵芬兰也遵循此理。什么都不做对他们最有利。
↘（芬）我最近看到的大部分乡间道路路况都很糟糕，根本无法支撑坦克。也许，正是因为这个原因它们才没有得到维护？
There are two ways it will go down. Either NATO jumps in and kicks ass, 50/50 chance to end in nuclear winter, or we go alone, give the Russians a bloody nose and ebentually get completely occupied.
（芬）发展下去会有两种结果。要么北约入局痛击俄罗斯，这样会有一半的几率以核冬天收场；要么我们孤军奋战，打得俄罗斯人口鼻流血，但最终会被彻底占领。
I imagine a lot of Russians dying in the Alps or at sea. Italy doesn't have the most powerful army, but our navy is nothing to scoff at and our terrain advantage is literally the tallest on the continent.
在我的想象中，会有很多俄罗斯人死在阿尔卑斯山或海上。意大利没有最强的陆军，但我们的海军不容小觑，我们的地形优势在欧洲大陆上确实是最大的。
↘（意）蠢材。意大利海军不合格，装备也不足。他们的舰艇只携带最低限度的弹药。
As Serbian, here is what will happen:
like 30% will welcome occupiers, celebrating “freedom from the western chains”. Most likely, at least half of them will start to complain within month and end up shoot.
30% pro-Westerners will mostly like flee to the West complaining how they barely escaped the death.
the rest of the population will continue to with their life, contributing nothing to either side.
作为塞尔维亚人，以下是将会发生的事情：
约30%的人会欢迎占领军，并庆祝“摆脱了西方的枷锁”。最有可能的是，他们中至少有一半人会在一个月内开始抱怨，最终被枪毙。
30%的亲西方者大部分都会逃往西方，并抱怨自己差一点就没命了。
剩下的人会继续过生活，无助于任何一方。
The fear of Russians invading is kind of funny at this point because it’s on everyone’s mind.
Whenever a bomb like noise happens, or military airplanes go by everyone immediately goes to “the Russians are coming”. Had a bombing near me recently that was related to gang violence but when it happened everyone woke up thinking it’s the Russians.
（瑞典）在这个时点上，对俄罗斯人入侵的恐惧有点可笑了，因为每个人都会思虑此事。
每当发生类似炸弹爆炸的声音，或有军机飞过时，每个人都会立刻联想到“俄罗斯人打过来了”。最近在我附近就发生了一起与帮派暴力有关的炸弹爆炸事件，但是当事件发生时，所有人的意识里都认为是俄罗斯人干的。
I'm Belarusian, and yes, we used to fight against Russia back in the days of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and the uprisings afterwards. In the modern era, though, a war between Belarus and Russia is well-nigh impossible. If it were to happen, Lukashenka is on record as saying that Belarusians would fight more desperately than the Chechens had, but I think in reality most of us would collaborate, surrender or flee to Europe or Turkey.
我是白俄罗斯人，是的，在波兰-立陶宛联邦时期以及之后的起义中，我们曾与俄罗斯作战。但在现代，白俄罗斯和俄罗斯之间几乎不可能发生战争。如果真的发生战争，卢卡申科曾公开表示，白俄罗斯人会比车臣人更死命战斗，但我认为实际情况会是，我们大多数人会合作、投降或逃往欧洲/土耳其。
I do not need imagine anymore. We probably already know how war will look like. One difference is the EU/NATO has much more toys than Ukraine. But we know how important is artillery, reconnaissance, anti-aircraft defence and sucide drones. Russia does not have powerful navy, with Sweden in NATO Kalinigrad is no more such a big headache and so on. Tanks and armoured vehicles are still important though no break trought front is possible and producing big numebrs is just too expensive so we do not need them that much.
（波）我不需要再想象了。我们可能已经知道战争会是什么样子。不同的是，欧盟/北约的玩具比乌克兰多得多。但我们很清楚火炮、侦察、防空和自杀式无人机的重要性。俄罗斯没有强大的海军，瑞典加入北约后，加里尼格勒不再是令人头疼的问题了，诸如此类。坦克和装甲车仍然重要，但不可能突破战线，而且大量生产坦克和装甲车的成本太高了，因此我们没那么需要它们。
↘（波）没有人谈论过这个问题。好像还是离我们很遥远，乌克兰虽大，但已经有人在我们的土地上丧生了，一些火箭弹也落在了我们的领土上。恢复义务兵役制非常不得人心，而我生活在这个国家的西部。我想这就是瑞典或法国在1940年以前对二战的观感。
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↘（波）作为一个西方人，我背负着巨大的代际创伤，我们会被抛弃，波兰将为东方而战。
我那位于西部的家乡几乎没有军事基地，所有东西都被拆得七零八落。貌似政府很认真地想为西方而战，也想把战线设置在维斯瓦河上。我可以战斗，但我可不能像鲜活的肉盾那样阻止俄罗斯人杀到富裕的华沙或弗罗茨瓦夫。
↘（波）如今，我们是西方体系不可分割的一部分。这不同于三十年代的情况，而且放弃我们会付出高昂的代价。
We will repeat the civil war again as we're so polarised that it scares anyone with some sense. It's easy for Russia to tense everything and make it explode.
（西）我们将重燃内战，因为我们的两极分化太严重了，任何有理智的人都会感到害怕。俄罗斯很容易就能紧张化局势，并坐等我们内爆。
↘（巴斯克人）“我坚信，西班牙是世界上最强大的国家。连续数百年一直试图毁灭自己，但仍然没有成功”—— 奥托·冯·俾斯麦
It depends, with the aid that Ukraine is getting we would probably have won, our logistics are good, we have lots of influence across the globe, we have far better weapons and equipment. Given the geography we would just sink there ships with our more up to date navy however in Ukraines position where there is a land border we would struggle and would have to adapt. Alone and on a land war it would be a struggle but we could wreak Russia too. We might not have the resources but we would be able to do considerable damage and shut there army down. We might eventually run out of resources but it would be a favourable war for us at least in the short term. We could probably force a good peace. Also we have nukes so that would be a last resort.
（法）这要看情况，有了乌克兰正在接收的那批援助，我们很可能已经赢了，我们的后勤很棒，我们在全球有很大的影响力，我们的武器装备远胜他们。鉴于地理因素，我们可以直接用更现代的海军击沉他们的战舰，但在紧挨陆地边界的乌克兰阵地上，我们将会陷入困境，不得不作出调整以适应实际情况。在陆战中，单靠我们自己会很吃力，但我们也能重伤俄罗斯。也许我们没有足够的资源，但我们有能力造成相当大的破坏，并瘫痪其军队。最终我们可能会耗尽资源，但至少在短期内，这会是一场对我们有利的战争。或许我们可以迫使他们言和。此外，我们还有核武器，这将是最后的手段。
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↘（克罗地亚）鉴于地理因素，你们很可能被迫在喀尔巴阡山脉、巴尔干半岛的某个地方面对俄罗斯人，如果战局不利，则会在阿尔卑斯山北麓面对俄罗斯人。
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↘法国的炸弹不是在三天内就会用完吗？
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We are doing some serious modernization but it still takes time, so if we were at war against Russia today, we would be fucked in less than a week! That’s my honest guess, it is what it is!
（匈）我们正在认真推进现代化进程，但仍需要时间，因此，如果今天我们与俄罗斯开战，不出一周就会完蛋！这是我真心的猜测，事实就是如此！
I live within walking distance from russia (Vilnius), so it's likely that we would get shelled with conventional artillery. Main army bases are a bit further away but not too far, so the response would be fast and decisive. We have top notch NATO-grade weapons and enough motivated soldiers, the attack wouldn't go far.
Belarus is monitored constantly by planes and satellites, so russia wouldn't be able to gather many troops without notice. We'd know about their plans well before they tried anything, but we can't fire the first shot.
（立陶宛）我住的地方（维尔纽斯）走不多远就能到俄罗斯了，所以我们很可能会遭到常规炮击。陆军的主基地离我们稍远一些，但也不算太远，所以我们的反击会迅速而果断。我们拥有一流的北约级武器和足够多战心高昂的士兵，俄罗斯的攻击不会取得大成功。
飞机和卫星一刻不停地监视着白俄罗斯，因此俄罗斯不可能在毫无察觉的情况下集结大量军队。在他们采取任何行动之前，我们就知道他们的计划了，但我们不能先开第一枪。
Considering there’s a big chance of it becoming a nuclear war, I shall send everyone my best wishes from either Chile or New Zealand.
（罗马尼亚）鉴于酿成核战争的可能性非常大，我将从智利或是新西兰向大家致以最美好的祝愿。