日元暴跌，日本陷入危机了吗?或者是美国正在出口其经济问题？
Is Japan in crisis as yen crashes? Or is USA exporting its economic problems?
译文简介
日本的货币日元兑美元大幅贬值。它的经济是否处于危机之中？美国的利率、通胀、债务和赤字扮演了什么角色？中国呢？
正文翻译
Japan's currency the yen has fallen significantly against the dollar. It its economy in crisis? What is the role of US interest rates, inflation, debt, and deficits? What about China? Ben Norton explains the complex geoeconomic situation.
日本的货币日元兑美元大幅贬值。它的经济是否处于危机之中？美国的利率、通胀、债务和赤字扮演了什么角色？中国呢？本·诺顿解释了这个复杂的地缘经济局势。
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This state has Controlled and Used Japan for decades. Thanks Ben
这个国家几十年来一直在控制和利用日本。感谢本。
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Japan is being scarified by US.
美国正在牺牲日本。
The USA aka IOU-country, is always exporting their debts.
That is what Ponzi-scam means.
美国，即欠债国，总是在出口他们的债务。这就是庞氏骗局的意思。
Japan imports 62% of its food(25% of that from the US), to say the Japanese worker isn't feeling the inflation on food is bogus, they are feeling it acutely!
日本有62%的食品进口（其中25%来自美国），说日本工人没有感受到食品通胀是不真实的，他们深切地感受到了这一点！
For short term, weak Japanese Yen may not have direct impact to average citizens. However, as Ben mentioned, Japan relies so much on import for food, energy and raw materials, long term it will drive up inflation w/o a doubt. So, I am not as optimistic as Ben saying ordinary citizens in Japan will be just fine. Both Japan government and BOJ has been mis-managing the balance-sheets for decades. The debt level is so high that they can only allow Yen to continuously depreciate. They don't have an option to raise the interest rate to slowdown the depreciation. In the end, this is just a way to take away wealth from citizens.
对于短期内，日元疲软可能不会直接影响普通公民。然而，正如本所提到的，日本对食品、能源和原材料的进口依赖很大，从长期来看，这将毫无疑问地推动通货膨胀。所以，我不像本那样乐观地认为日本普通公民会没事。日本政府和日本银行在过去几十年一直在糟糕地管理资产负债表。债务水平如此之高，以至于他们只能允许日元持续贬值。他们没有提高利率以减缓贬值的选择。最终，这只是一种从公民身上夺取财富的手段。
This is the second time Japan has suffered economically for being the vassal state of the US. The first was in 1985 when it was asked to sign the Plaza Accord in which the yen was made to appreciate against the US dollar which led to the Japanese asset price bubble which lasted for at least a decade. Japan was on course to become the largest economy in the world when it was asked to sign the Plaza Accord. Recently, Germany overtook Japan as the third largest economy.
这已经是日本第二次因为成为美国的附庸国而在经济上受到影响。第一次是在1985年，当时被要求签署《广场协议》，日元被迫升值对美元，导致了日本的资产价格泡沫，这泡沫至少持续了一个十年。当时，日本本来有望成为世界最大经济体，但被要求签署了广场协议。最近，德国超过日本成为第三大经济体。
The US damaged the Japanese economy with the Plaza Accord. Also Japan has a declining population.
美国通过广场协议损害了日本经济。此外，日本人口正在下降。
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For the longest time, I didn't even approach economics, because from a distance, it seemed so complicated.
Ben's explanations are absolutely incredible, and I find that his approach is genuinely very eye-opening to the lies that are spread by mainstream economists.
很长一段时间，我甚至都不敢接触经济学，因为从远处看，它似乎非常复杂。Ben的解释非常令人难以置信，我发现他的方法确实非常启发人，揭露了主流经济学家传播的谎言。
Recession is part of the economic cycle, all you do is prepare and plan accordingly. I graduated in a recession (2009). My first job after college was an aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today I am vice president of a global company, I own 3 properties for rent, I have invested in stocks and businesses, I have built my own business and my net worth has increased by US$500,000 in the last 4 years.
衰退是经济周期的一部分，你所要做的就是做好准备并做出相应的规划。我在经济衰退时毕业（2009年）。我大学毕业后的第一份工作是在游轮上做空中杂技演员。今天我是一家全球公司的副总裁，我拥有3处出租物业，投资了股票和企业，建立了自己的企业，过去4年我的净资产增加了50万美元。
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Currency is paper NOT products or resources which really count
货币只是纸张，真正重要的是产品或资源。
USA exporting its economic problems? .. Israel may have the most moral army in the world, but USA has the most moral economic policy in the world.
/snark .. in case it's not obvious
美国将其经济问题输出？...以色列可能拥有世界上最有道德的军队，但美国拥有世界上最有道德的经济政策。/讽刺...以防不明显。
Since Japan imports all its energy, depreciation of yen means higher energy cost which, eventually, translates into higher inflation.
由于日本全部能源都是进口的，日元贬值意味着能源成本更高，最终会导致通货膨胀加剧。
So what you mean is that Japan is strong locally but more vulnerable when the want foreign goods.
你的意思是日本在本土很强大，但在需要外国商品时更脆弱。
Japan wouldn't dare to sell the US Treasury bonds. Japan has been told to stay put.
日本不敢出售美国国债。日本被告知要坐视不管。
Western allies have been increasing their holdings. A good proxy for whose on team America vs team BRICS is to look at who is increasing their holdings of US debt.
西方盟友一直在增加他们的持有量。一个很好的衡量标准是看谁在增加他们持有的美国债券的数量，以区分谁是美国队伍的一部分，谁是金砖国家队伍的一部分。
I believe the balance between minimum wage and VAT tax is the key. Supply and Demand.
我相信最低工资和增值税之间的平衡是关键。供求关系。成本推动的通货膨胀或需求拉动的通货膨胀
Would also the fact the US prints a lot of money to fund the military complex, and count funding for Israel Ukraine toward their GDP as this would be converted to military weapons contract's for US companies, inflate that figure, coupled more relevantly with a lot of GDP as debt fuelled mortgages and credit card purchases, so not real wealth expenditure like in Japan and China where household savings dwarf that of Americans
美国大量印钞来资助军工复合体的事实，以及将资金用于支持以色列和乌克兰的GDP计入统计，因为这些资金最终会转化为美国公司的军火合同，这会使GDP数字增加。与此相关的是，美国的GDP中有很大一部分是通过债务支撑的抵押贷款和信用卡消费，而不是像日本和中国那样的真正的财富支出，那里的家庭储蓄比美国人的多得多。
This divergence between US and Japanese treasury obxtives can have very phenomenal impact towards dedollarization.
美国和日本财政目标之间的分歧可能对去美元化产生非常重大的影响。
The yen is pretty steady against currencies of the BRICS countries while falling against other G7 currencies ...HMMm
日元对金砖国家货币相当稳定，但对其他G7国家货币贬值……嗯。
All fiat currencies collapse. We are seeing the now. Japan is first because of its decades of manipulation and huge debt. The USD will be last because it's the reserve currency. As soon as BRICS launches a commodity backed currency it's done.
所有法定货币都会崩溃。我们现在就看到了。日本是第一个，因为它几十年来的操纵和巨额债务。美元将是最后一个，因为它是储备货币。一旦金砖国家推出以商品支持的货币，美元就完蛋了。
Japan is just helping the US to trigger another Asian Financial Crisis.
日本只是在帮助美国引发另一次亚洲金融危机。
Good for Chine to divest from US treasuries, given the counter risk demonstrated by the freezing and seizing of foreign assets 32:32
中国从美国国债中撤资是明智的，考虑到外国资产被冻结和没收的风险。
Great explanation and a much needed one; in order to understand how current economic issues faced by countries are intrinsically lixed to Geo-political situations all over the world.
很好的解释，也是非常需要的一种解释；为了理解各国当前面临的经济问题与世界各地的地缘政治局势是如何内在联系的。
So basically Japan is the canary in the coal mine, it is slowly painting itself into a huge corner (debt), interest rates rise its screwed and endless QE is unsustainable, it cannot buy its own debt indefinitely either.
基本上，日本就像煤矿里的金丝雀，它正在慢慢地把自己画进一个巨大的角落（债务），利率上升它就完蛋了，无止境的量化宽松是不可持续的，它也不能无限期地购买自己的债务。
A weak currency can be good, if you produce products and services that can be exported.
Its BAD when the only thing propping up your currency is it being used by most of the world.
如果你生产的产品和服务可以出口，弱势货币可能是有利的。 当支撑你的货币的唯一因素是它被世界大多数国家使用时，情况就不妙了。
How is like to be the vessel state of USA ? Someone should ask Japanese leaders.
成为美国的附庸国是什么感觉？应该有人问问日本领导人。
Agree that GDP and currency are not the only indicator of economy. But the Japanese industrial strength is also facing severe challenges. Auto industries is Japan's top employment sect which is being crushed by the EV revolution.
同意GDP和货币并不是经济的唯一指标。但日本的工业实力也面临严峻挑战。汽车产业是日本最重要的就业部门，正在被电动汽车革命摧毁。
They should measure GDP by converting their currency against the price of Gold, not USD. I think the depreciation of Yen transferred the burden of higher import costs to the middle working class. Those with capital US/Japan are the beneficiaries.
他们应该以黄金价格来衡量GDP，而不是以美元。我认为日元贬值将高昂的进口成本转嫁给了中产阶级。拥有资本的人，比如美国和日本，是受益者。
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Great analysis Ben, bravo! I am wondering if you can talk about the current economy of Mexico, as it is going through a rather unusual period and there is so much bogus going around that. Big hug for you!
本的分析很棒，太棒了！我想知道你是否能谈谈墨西哥当前的经济情况，因为它正在经历一个相当不寻常的时期，而且有很多虚假信息。给你一个大大的拥抱！
If all vassals of the reserve currency falls harder than the reserve currency is, then it will look like the reserve currency is still strong and not lose its status as a reserve currency.
So, from this perspective, to save the reserve currency, there needs to be a falling vassals currency. For Euro it will work if there was a war created there.
如果所有储备货币的附庸国都比储备货币本身跌得更厉害，那么储备货币看起来仍然强劲，不会失去其储备货币的地位。 因此，从这个角度来看，为了挽救储备货币，需要有附庸国货币贬值。对于欧元来说，如果那里发生战争，这种做法可能有效。
When energy prices rise, cost of living increases. This is why the Yen to Dollar ratio is important. Japan is not in BRICS. They cannot get cheap Russian oil.
Being a US vassal has consequences.
当能源价格上涨时，生活成本就会增加。这就是为什么日元兑美元比率很重要。日本不是金砖国家。他们无法获得廉价的俄罗斯石油。作为美国的附庸国有后果。
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Great analysis as always but I disagree with your comments on how much it is affecting normal people in Japan. Our wages are not increasing nearly fast enough to catch up to inflation and it's getting harder and harder for people to get by day to day. It's important to remember that our food self-sufficiency is very low, so food prices are getting higher and higher. This is my daily lived experience in Japan. General analysis is probably onpoint and certainly the companies that export (as well as inbound tourism industry) are profiting a lot from the current situation but it's very dismissive to say that it's not affecting normal people. Workers are struggling here, a lot...
像往常一样，分析得很好，但我不同意你对日本普通民众受到影响程度的评论。我们的工资增长远远不足以赶上通货膨胀，人们日常生活越来越难以为继。重要的是要记住，我们的食品自给率非常低，所以食品价格越来越高。这是我在日本的日常生活经历。一般的分析可能是正确的，当然，出口公司（以及入境旅游业）从当前情况中获益颇丰，但这种说法对于不受影响的普通民众来说是非常片面的。工人们在这里正在艰难地生活着，很多人……
The difference in size of the Indian economy in nominal GDP and GDP in purchasing power parity is enormous.
印度经济在名义GDP和购买力平价GDP之间的差异是巨大的。
Thank you Ben! This is truly complex. Especially when you add to the mix "stolen bonds. " Reminds me of when I bought Tara (a mining stock in Ireland.) As soon as Tara started making money my stocks were ceased, and sold at cost. You're dammed if you do and dammed if you don't.
谢谢本！这确实很复杂。特别是当你加入“被盗的债券”这个因素时。这让我想起了当我购买塔拉（爱尔兰的一家矿业公司）时的情况。当塔拉开始盈利时，我的股票被停止，以成本价出售。你不管怎样都会受到伤害。
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And to get an even better view if an economy, adjust GDP for the weighted average of public and private to GDP percentage. Because debt inflates asset valuations and prices. Therefore, by normalizing GDP by debt, you get even better view if the fundamental health of an economy.
将GDP根据公共和私人部门占GDP比重的加权平均调整，可以更好地了解经济。因为债务会膨胀资产估值和价格。因此，通过将GDP标准化为债务，您可以更好地了解经济的基本健康状况。
But you can calculate GDP in a unique cost for each country. There are many ways to calculate it not only with the current exchange rate. The most used is fixed value from a year to avoid impact of the currency change. Normally the inflation will cleaned up out of the GDP calculation. The only tricky part are the brand new products that are not existing previously.
但你可以根据每个国家的独特成本计算GDP。有很多计算方法，不仅仅是使用当前汇率。最常用的是固定价值，以免受货币变动的影响。通常通货膨胀会在GDP计算中被清除。唯一棘手的部分是那些之前不存在的全新产品。
Thanks for the master class in the economic conundrum of currency high finance inflation etc. I always thought ranking countries by GDP was fishy propaganda to make Americans think they were way better off than people in other countries.
感谢你对货币高金融通货膨胀等经济难题的深入解读。我一直认为按GDP排名国家是一种虚假宣传，让美国人认为他们比其他国家的人民要好得多。
GDP (included debt and real estate bubble speculation) doesn't reflect Economic performance...but only a high level of speculation and Corruption...
GDP（包括债务和房地产泡沫猜测）并不能反映经济表现，而只是高度猜测和腐败的表现…
Still growing in 2024 too: Japan's exports increased for the third straight year in 2023, hitting a record high, according to preliminary figures released Wednesday by the Ministry of Finance, reflecting strong automobile shipments and the effects of the weak yen.
2024年也将继续增长:日本财务省(Ministry of Finance)周三公布的初步数据显示，2023年日本出口连续第三年增长，创下历史新高，反映出强劲的汽车出货量和日元疲软的影响。
I believe Quantitative Easing was invented by Richard Werner and used by Japan when he was advisor to the Bank of Japan.
我相信量化宽松是由理查德·沃纳发明的，并在他担任日本银行顾问时被日本采用。
I'd be more concerned about the giant US debt and the strongly rising dept servicing. The US is facing a severe economical meltdown in the next few years. One way out will be a strong and long inflation of the US$, so that those graphs will be upside down...
我更担心的是美国巨额债务和债务服务的大幅增长。美国在未来几年面临严重的经济崩溃。一种解决方法将是大幅通胀美元，使那些图表颠倒过来…
The only thing I disagree with is that old canard that deflation pushes back demand. A lot of people have to have the latest iPhone no matter the cost and how much it wall fall in the future. Its always that way with tech goods or anything fashion related. Very few people would put off buying something today if they could afford it and wanted it, in the anticipation that the price could fall a bit in the future.
我唯一不同意的是那句老话，即通货紧缩会抑制需求。很多人无论代价如何都要拥有最新款的iPhone，不管它将来会贬值多少。对于科技产品或任何与时尚相关的东西，总是这样。很少有人会因为价格可能稍微下降而推迟今天购买某样东西，如果他们有能力并且想要的话。
The US only holds around $9 billion of Russian debt. Russia de-dollarised since 2014, unfortunately, Russia switched to selling its oil in Euros and it is the EU that is holding the bulk of the 300bn euros in reserves. Also, the Chinese government is the single largest holder of US Treasurys, although it is divesting from US Treasurys, it is buying into US municipal debt in a big way it seems for better returns. Japan's holdings are split across pension funds, corporations, government, individuals etc.
美国只持有大约90亿美元的俄罗斯债务。自2014年以来，俄罗斯已进行了去美元化，不幸的是，俄罗斯转而用欧元出售其石油，而欧盟持有大部分3000亿欧元的储备。此外，中国政府是美国国债的最大持有者，尽管它正在从美国国债中撤资，但似乎正大举投资于美国市政债务以获得更好的回报。日本的持有权分散在养老基金、公司、政府、个人等各方。
The U.S. economy is in bad shape because printing too much money causes inflation, so it has to raise interest rates to suppress inflation. The interest rates are too high, and banks cannot handle them by closing down their businesses. Companies are also unable to borrow money for investment and operations because the interest rates are too high. Companies are not doing well. Just lay people off. Laying off too many people will cause social problems such as social crime and homelessness. However, interest rates cannot be lowered because lowering interest rates will intensify inflation. Not to mention printing too much money and accumulating a national debt that cannot be repaid. This is an endless loop. . .
美国经济状况不佳，因为印钞太多导致通货膨胀，所以必须提高利率来抑制通货膨胀。利率太高，银行无法通过关闭业务来处理。公司也无法因为利率太高而借到投资和运营资金。公司表现不佳，只好裁员。裁员过多会引发社会问题，如社会犯罪和无家可归者。然而，利率不能降低，因为降低利率会加剧通货膨胀。更不用说印钞过多和积累无法偿还的国债。这是一个无止境的循环。
Weak yuan means energy is more expensive and so are all petroleum related products. It also means American capitals can take control of Japanese assets much less resistance. Fortunately, export of Japanese products would also go up. Can exports offset the rise in energy costs is the question.
人民币贬值意味着能源更加昂贵，所有石油相关产品也会更昂贵。这也意味着美国资本可以更轻易地控制日本资产。幸运的是，日本产品的出口也会增加。出口能否抵消能源成本上升是个问题。
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Good political leadership is one of, if not, The most important factors for prosperity of any country. It's absolutely mindboggling how so many are willing to be used by USA and then end up ruined and discarded.
良好的政治领导力是任何国家繁荣的最重要因素之一，如果不是最重要的话。令人惊讶的是有这么多人愿意被美国利用，最终却毁于一旦并被抛弃。