Musk's fantasy: In the future, thousands of human starship fleets will depart from the Earth and head to Mars. As costs drop, even ordinary people will have the opportunity to work on Mars, and eventually build a self-sufficient Mars city with a population of one million. ; In the eyes of scientists, "Compared with making Mars habitable, dealing with climate change on Earth is a piece of cake. We should not regard it (colonizing Mars) as a long-term goal at all."

马斯克的狂想：未来数以千计的人类星舰舰队将从地球出发，前往火星，随着成本下降，甚至普通人都有机会去火星工作，最终建设出一个百万人口自给自足的火星城；而在科学家眼中，“与让火星变得宜居相比，应对地球上的气候变化才是轻而易举的事。我们根本不应该把它（殖民火星）作为一个长期目标。”

To make humans a multi-planetary species, SpaceX will send 1 million people and millions of tons of materials to Mars in the next 20 years to build a Martian city and even modify the environment of Mars to make it habitable in the future. This is not science fiction, but something Elon Musk is once again preaching about.

让人类成为多行星物种，SpaceX未来20年要送100万人和数百万吨物资去火星，以建立一座火星城市，乃至未来对火星进行环境改造，使其变得宜居。这不是在写科幻小说，而是埃隆·马斯克再次对外宣扬要做的事。

Since Musk publicly proposed in 2007 that he wanted to lead humans to colonize Mars, this "fantasy" has been controversial and topical. On the one hand, he is enthusiastically pursued by aerospace technology fans around the world, admiring the series of achievements of the space exploration technology company Space Starship, the largest rocket in the world, is exciting enough to make the public believe in its Mars plan.

从2007年马斯克公开提出想要带领人类殖民火星开始，这个“狂想”就不缺争议和话题性。一边是全球航天科技迷的狂热追捧，钦佩于其创办的太空探索技术公司Space X在商业航天领域所取得的一系列成就，包括火箭回收、猎鹰重型、Starlix、龙飞船以及目前在测试的世界上最大的火箭Starship，每一项都足够振奋人心，让大众对其火星计划也变得愈发相信。

On the other side, there are doubts and warnings from astronomers. Although Space "This is a stupid and ridiculous idea."
——From a scientific point of view, compared with rocket technology, the problems faced by the Mars colonization plan are much more complex.

另一边却是来自天文学家的质疑和警告，虽然Space X拥有值得被肯定的火箭技术，但殖民火星这种“狂想”根本就是一种“危险的幻觉”，从科学角度来看并不现实，“这是一个愚蠢而荒谬的想法”。
——从科学角度看，相对于火箭技术，火星殖民计划面临的问题要复杂得多。

In his latest speech at Starbase on April 7, Musk once again shared SpaceX's path and plan for Mars colonization. The whole process was sometimes sensational and sometimes presented with data, looking forward to mankind's future ambitions to start a multi-planetary civilization era—— Accompanied by bursts of cheers and applause from the audience.

4月7日，马斯克在星舰基地（Starbase）发表的最新演讲中，再次分享了SpaceX火星殖民的路径和计划，全程时而煽情时而摆数据，展望人类开启多行星文明纪元的未来宏图——伴随着台下阵阵欢呼和掌声。

The Mars colonization plan will rely on the most powerful rocket Starship developed by SpaceX. The original idea of ​​Starship can be traced back to 2005. At that time, shortly after SpaceX was founded, Musk ambitiously proposed to build a super-heavy rocket called "BFR". In the subsequent development process of the company, Musk gradually completed the development and put into use of equipment such as Raptor rocket engine, Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy rocket and Manned Dragon spacecraft. The engines became stronger and stronger, and the rockets became more and more manufactured. The bigger it gets, the smoother the manned business will run.

火星殖民计划要靠SpaceX研发的最强火箭星舰（Starship）来完成。星舰最初的设想可追溯到2005年，彼时，SpaceX刚刚成立不久，马斯克就雄心勃勃地提出要建造一种超重型火箭，名为“BFR”。在之后的公司发展进程中，马斯克一步步完成了对猛禽火箭发动机、猎鹰9号、猎鹰重型火箭以及载人龙飞船等设备的研发和投入使用，发动机越来越强，火箭越造越大，载人业务也越跑越顺。

Starting in 2023, the starship will finally enter the overall comprehensive flight test stage. This behemoth has a diameter of 9 meters and an overall height of 121 meters. The first-stage booster is equipped with 33 Raptor engines, which can generate about 7,755 tons of thrust. The second-stage starship itself is equipped with 6 Raptor engines and is fully reusable. The "Starship" low-Earth orbit carrying capacity is up to 150 tons, and the payload is up to more than 250 tons without considering recovery.

从2023年开始，星舰终于迈进整体综合飞行测试阶段。这个直径9米，总体高度达121米的庞然大物，一级助推器安装有33台猛禽发动机，能够产生约7755吨的推力，二级星舰本身安装有6台猛禽发动机，可完全重复使用的“星舰”近地轨道运载能力高达150吨，在不考虑回收的情况下，有效载荷高达250吨以上。

On April 20, 2023, November 18, 2023, and March 14, 2024, SpaceX broadcast live globally the three trans-atmospheric orbital flight tests of the starship. The first two explosions occurred during the lift-off stage. Either the multi-engine failed and lost contact, or the rocket exploded after thermal separation. In the third flight test, the starship finally successfully entered the predetermined orbital altitude, and then crashed during the return to Earth stage. But in Musk's view, these explosions are not entirely a setback for SpaceX, but bring them closer to the edge of success. The starship's flight test performance is getting better and better each time, and it seems that it is not far away from being actually put into use.

2023年4月20日、2023年11月18日、2024年3月14日，SpaceX全球直播了星舰的三次跨大气层轨道飞行测试。前两次均在升空飞行阶段发生爆炸，要么是多联发动机出现故障失联，要么是火箭热分离后发生爆炸。第三次飞行测试中星舰终于成功进入预定轨道高度，后在返回地球阶段坠毁。但在马斯克看来，这些爆炸对于SpaceX来说并不完全是挫败，而是让他们更接近了成功的边缘，星舰的飞行测试表现一次比一次好，距离实际投入使用似乎并不遥远了。

It seems that the practical experience accumulated by SpaceX has strengthened Musk's confidence in colonizing Mars. As of April 2024, Space It has successfully launched 50 astronauts into Earth orbit and 46 people into the International Space Station; the Starlix project has launched more than 6,000 satellites in orbit, providing space-based network services to 2.7 million users.

看起来，SpaceX积累的实战经验让马斯克坚定了殖民火星的信心。截至2024年4月，Space X的成绩放眼全球商业航天是独一份：327次猎鹰火箭发射，291次成功回收着陆，261次的重复发射利用；载人龙飞船执行了45 次发射任务，成功将50名航天员送入地球轨道，把46人送进国际空间站；星链计划（Starlix）发射了超6000颗卫星在轨运行，为270万用户提供天基网络服务。

Musk revealed in his latest speech that SpaceX is expected to undertake about 90% of the world's Earth-to-orbit mass launch missions in 2024, and China will undertake about 6% of the launch missions, while the rest of the world's "sectors" combined only account for 4%.

马斯克在最新的演讲中透露，2024年SpaceX预计将承担起全球大约90%的地球至轨道质量发射任务，中国将承担约6%的发射任务，而世界其他“部门”的总和仅占4%。

The Starship will continue to improve after successful testing. It is expected that by the third generation, the total thrust of the rocket will reach 10,000 tons, the earth orbit carrying capacity will exceed 200 tons, and it can be fully reused.

星舰在测试成功后会继续改进，预计到第3代，火箭的总推力将达到10000吨，地球轨道运载能力将超过200吨且能完全重复使用。

On this basis, Musk began to imagine his Mars plan.

在此基础上，马斯克开始畅想他的火星计划。

Mars missions have a launch window every 26 months (the Earth and Mars are relatively close, and rocket fuel consumption is minimal). Musk made some rough calculations. If the starship launches 10 times a day and carries 200 tons each time, it can transport one million tons of materials to low-Earth orbit and 250,000 tons of materials to Mars between every two Mars launch windows. , these materials will ensure that the first humans can mine, build and plant on Mars, and ultimately achieve self-sufficiency. In addition, there are "refueling version" starships specially operated in orbit and facilities for preparing propellant locally on Mars to ensure round-trip fuel supply for the journey to Mars.

火星任务每26个月有一次发射窗口期（地球和火星较为接近，火箭燃料消耗最少）。马斯克粗算了一下，如果星舰每天发射10次、每次运载200吨，每两次火星发射窗口期之间能向近地轨道运送百万吨级的物资，向火星输送25万吨物资，这些物资将确保第一批人类能够在火星上进行开采、建设和种植，最终实现自给自足。此外，还有专门在轨运行的“加油版”星舰以及在火星本地制备推进剂的设施，保障火星之旅往返燃料补给。

Musk looked forward to the next 20 years, describing the spectacular scene of "thousands of ships launching together", saying that starships are the key to realizing human multi-planetary survival and preserving the light of human consciousness. Thousands of human starship fleets will set off from the earth. , go to Mars. As the cost drops, even ordinary people will have the opportunity to go to Mars to work. A large number of construction work such as large-scale power generation, mineral mining, water ice mining, propellant manufacturing, long-term life support, etc. will start the human entrepreneurial journey to Mars. , and eventually build a self-sufficient Mars city with a population of one million.

马斯克展望未来20年，描述其“千舰齐发”的壮观场景，称星舰就是实现人类多行星生存和保存人类意识之光的关键，数以千计的人类星舰舰队将从地球出发，前往火星，随着成本下降，甚至普通人都有机会去火星工作，诸如大规模发电、矿物开采、水冰开采、推进剂制造、长期生命支持等大量建设工作，会开启人类火星创业之旅，最终建设出一个百万人口自给自足的火星城。

Recently, British astrophysicist Martin Rees, who holds the lofty title of "Astronomer Royal", called Musk's Mars plan "unrealistic" in an interview.

近期，享有“皇家天文学家”崇高头衔的英国天体物理学家马丁·里斯（Martin Rees）就在采访中称马斯克的火星计划“不现实”。

Martin Rees is an authoritative expert on quasars. He has received honorary doctorates from 19 universities and has been elected as a fellow of several scientific societies and academicians. He has made many important contributions to the origin of the cosmic microwave background radiation and has authored 500 books. Several scientific papers.

马丁·里斯是研究类星体的权威专家，曾获得19所大学的荣誉博士头衔，获选多个科学学会的会士和学院院士，对宇宙微波背景辐射的起源作出了很多重要贡献，著有500多篇科学论文。

In his opinion, Musk is an "extraordinary person" with a "pretty strange personality", but he mentioned that "compared with making Mars habitable, dealing with climate change on Earth is a piece of cake." So I don't think we should consider it (colonizing Mars) as a long-term goal at all."

在他看来，马斯克是一个“非凡的人物”，有着“相当奇怪的个性”， 但他提到“与让火星变得宜居相比，应对地球上的气候变化才是轻而易举的事。所以我认为我们根本不应该把它（殖民火星）作为一个长期目标。”

There may be some human explorers on Mars, just as scientific researchers live in Antarctica, but the idea of ​​mass immigration to Mars to escape problems on Earth, adopted by Musk and some other space enthusiasts, Rees calls "a dangerous fantasy."

火星上可能会有一些人类探索者，就像科研人员生活在南极一样，但马斯克和其他一些太空爱好者所采用的大规模火星移民以逃避地球问题的想法，里斯认为这是“危险的幻想”。

First, our human bodies are currently unable to withstand long-term space travel due to harmful factors such as low gravity and cosmic radiation. A recent study published in the authoritative journal Cell lists in cold, scientific detail the many ways the space environment can harm the body, including DNA mutations, increased risk of cancer, and damage to the immune system.

一来，由于低重力和宇宙辐射等有害因素，我们人类的身体目前无法承受长期的太空旅行。发表在权威杂志《细胞》上的一项新近研究就以冷酷、科学的细节列出了太空环境对身体造成危害的多种方式，包括DNA突变、提升患癌风险以及损害免疫系统等。

It would take more than 200 days to reach Mars from the Earth at the fastest speed of human space navigation, regardless of the time it takes to land on Mars and build a Mars base. With insufficient relevant medical and health equipment, the potential risks can be imagined, and if this interstellar journey cannot be shortened significantly, astronauts will only feel depressed after living in a dim and closed space for a long time and have a psychological fear of being far away from the earth. It's enough to drive you crazy.

而从地球抵达火星，以人类目前的宇宙航行速度最快也得200多天，且不论到火星之后登陆建设火星基地的时间。在相关医疗和卫生设备不充分的情况下，潜在风险可想而知，且这趟星际旅途如果不能大幅缩短，光是太空人长期生活在昏暗封闭空间中的压抑感和远离地球的心理恐惧感就足以令人抓狂。

Rees proposed that the government must be "very safety-conscious" compared to private aerospace companies. He suggested that remote-controlled robots undertake most of the Mars exploration missions and hoist heavy building structures in space. It is more appropriate to build a space station for long-term research on Mars. way.

里斯提议，相对于私营航天企业，政府必须“非常有安全意识”，他更多建议遥控机器人承担大部分火星探索任务，并在太空中吊装重型建筑结构，建设用于长期研究火星的空间站才是正途。

Secondly, we should first focus our resources and energy on solving the problems we have caused on the earth before disturbing another planet. After all, the earth is now the cradle of human life.

二来，我们应该先集中资源和精力解决自己在地球上造成的问题，然后再去扰乱另一个星球，毕竟，地球当下才是人类的生命摇篮。

Outside of NASA, on May 15, 2021, during China's Tianwen-1 Mars exploration mission, the Zhurong rover successfully landed on Mars, making China the second country to successfully operate a Mars rover on Mars.

NASA之外，2021年5月15日，在中国天问一号火星探测任务中，祝融号火星车成功登陆火星，中国成为第二个成功在火星上运行火星探测器的国家。

Judging from the Mars exploration plans disclosed by major space agencies, 2030 may be expected to open a new chapter for manned Mars missions. However, the plans of these national teams do not sound as exaggerated and radical as Musk described. They are all proceeding steadily. Advance step by step.

从各大航天机构公开的火星探测计划来看，2030年或有望开启载人火星任务的新篇章，不过这些国家队的规划听上去都不及马斯克描述的那样夸张和激进，都是在稳扎稳打中循序推进。

We don't know if the vision of colonizing Mars with a million people will be realized, but it is certainly a matter of time before humans set foot on Mars.

百万人口殖民火星的愿景不知道会不会实现，但人类踏足火星，可以肯定是早晚的事。