如果今天最弱的国家与1000年前最强的国家打一场战争，谁会赢？

Alex Parker
The strongest from 1,000 years ago by far.
迄今为止，对比1000年前最强大的国家。

The issue is that you are taking the weakest today. If you took a standard nation from today, or even around the bottom 10 weakest they would win, but the weakest, not so much.
问题在于你选取了当今最弱小的国家。如果你选择了一个今天的标准国家，甚至是最弱的10个国家之一，他们会赢，但最弱的国家就不一定了。

It is fairly hard to judge what the weakest nation today is but I’m going to take the Vatican City.
判断当今最弱小的国家是相当困难的，但我将以梵蒂冈城为例。

So let’s compare.
那么，让我们来比较一下。

The strongest nation from 1,000 years ago was probably the Song dynasty of China, with Byzantium in second place.
1000年前最强大的国家可能是中国的宋朝，拜占庭排在第二位。

Population:
人口：

Song: 75.000.000
宋朝：75,000,000

Vatican: ~1.000
梵蒂冈：约1,000

Land Area:
土地面积：

Song: 2.100.000sqkm
宋朝：2,100,000平方公里

Vatican: 0.44sqkm
梵蒂冈：0.44平方公里

Apparently, the Vatican has an army of 110 Swiss Guards. The Song Dynasty had an army of >800,000. That means that the Vatican is outnumbered 4.000 to 1.
显然，梵蒂冈有一个由110名瑞士卫兵组成的军队。宋朝的军队超过800,000人。这意味着梵蒂冈的兵力是1比4000。

Considering they don’t have any advanced weaponry such as aircraft, the fight isn’t even close.
考虑到他们没有任何先进武器，例如飞机，战斗毫无悬念。
Susanna Viljanen The strongest nation in the world 1000 years ago (1017) is the Byzantine Empire, ruled by one of their greatest emperor-generals, Basileios II Bolgaroktonos. The Empire was on the conquest at the time and kicked the butt of all Pagan, Christian and Muslim neighbours it faced.
在1000年前 (1017年)，世界上最强大的国家是拜占庭帝国，当时正由他们最伟大的皇帝-将军之一巴西尔二世 (Basileios II Bolgaroktonos) 统治。帝国当时正处于极盛时期，击败了所有与其接壤的异教徒、基督徒和穆斯林邻国。

The weakest nation today (2017) is Costa Rica, which has no armed forces. They have a police force, though.
当今（2017年）最弱小的国家是哥斯达黎加，它没有武装部队。不过，他们有警察部队。

The opponents: The Byzantine Empire was the direct heir of the Hellenistic Greek and Roman Empires, and carried on their military legacy. They sure knew their sh*t and they could deal with any kind of enemy in any kind of terrain. The Costa Rica, which has no armed forces but do have a police force, and which can raise a militia force armed with light infantry and household weapons, but with no formal training, discipline or regulations.
对手：拜占庭帝国是希腊化时期的希腊和罗马帝国的直接继承者，并继续了他们的军事遗产。他们确实知道自己的强项，并且能够在任何地形中应对任何类型的敌人。哥斯达黎加没有武装部队，但有警察部队，并且可以组建一支装备轻步兵和家用武器的民兵力量，但没有经过正式的训练、纪律或规章制度。

But let’s dig up the good old Sunzi here.
让我们在这里引用一下古老的孙子兵法。

Moral influence: The Byzantine Empire would be fanatically Greek Christian. They would face a Latin enemy beyond the sea. A lot would depend on the casus belli: why would they fight? But usually the Byzantine forces had excellent moral influence.
道德影响：拜占庭帝国将是狂热的希腊基督徒。他们将面对海外的拉丁敌人。很多东西将取决于战争的理由：他们为什么要战斗？但通常拜占庭军队具有极好的道德影响力。

The Costa Ricans would be fighting for their physical survival. While they have no army per sé, they would fight with what they have - and could be incredibly resilient. It doesn’t hurt that they would be defending Democracy, Fatherland and Catholic Faith.
哥斯达黎加人将为他们的生存而战。虽然他们没有正式的军队，但他们会用自己拥有的一切来战斗——并且可能表现出难以置信的韧性。他们将捍卫民主、祖国和天主教信仰，这是无可厚非的。

Terrain: The Byzantine Empire had an all-terrain force. Their forces were excellently balanced to fight in any terrain and face any kinds of enemies - from Western knights to steppe-based horse archers and light mountaineer infantry. They would be uneasy to fight in jungle, but they were used to fighting in woods - and they knew Alexander and his Indian campaign.
地形：拜占庭帝国拥有一支全地形部队。他们的军队在任何地形作战并面对任何类型的敌人时都保持着出色的平衡，对手可以是西方的骑士、来自草原的骑射兵，或是轻装的山地步兵。虽然他们可能不太适应在丛林作战，但在森林中作战也并不陌生，而且他们还研究过亚历山大和他征服印度的战役。

The Costa Ricans would be employing as much of the jungle and the mountains of their homeland as they would be able. They most likely would be fighting as light infantry.
哥斯达黎加人将尽可能利用他们祖国的丛林和山地。他们最有可能以轻步兵的形式作战。

Weather: The Byzantine manuals and regulations deal a lot with weather and how to use it against various types of enemy, and in which season to attack and in which to counterattack.
天气：拜占庭的军事手册和条例对天气以及如何在不同类型的敌人面前利用天气进行了大量论述，并详细说明了在哪个季节进攻以及在哪个季节反击。

The Costa Ricans would be fighting in the tropics. They would be using the seasonal scorching sun, rainfall and heat as their asset, and would be using fire and scorched earth policies, denying the enemy their logistics.
哥斯达黎加军队将会在热带地区作战。他们会利用当地的季节性炙热阳光、降雨和高温作为优势，同时还会使用火攻和焦土战术，切断敌人的补给线。

Leadership: The Byzantines are extremely strong here. While they most likely did not know Sunzi, they knew all his principles and everything he taught - after all, the Byzantine Empire was a military empire. They would have excellent C3, leadership and discipline along with excellent training.
领导力：在这方面，拜占庭帝国将展现出极大的优势。尽管他们很可能不认识孙子，但他们却熟知孙子兵法的原则和所有教诲 - 毕竟，拜占庭帝国本身就是一个军事帝国。他们将拥有出色的指挥、控制和纪律 (C3)，同时训练有素。

The Costa Ricans would have no such things. What they would have is modern communication and information technology, and would quickly form up a semi-formal, “feudalish”, organization of levied militiamen around their police forces. They would have good natural leaders, but no formal training on strategy, tactics or logistics.
哥斯达黎加在这方面则完全不同。他们拥有的优势在于现代通讯和信息技术，并能迅速围绕警察部队组建一支半正式的、类似“封建制”的民兵组织。他们将会有不错的自然领袖，但缺乏正规的战略、战术或后勤方面的训练。

Doctrine: The Byzantines were completely prepared to take on any kind of an enemy in any kind of weather, and would be completely superior. Where they would be inferior would be equipment and weaponry. They would have a basically mounted force with core of cataphracts and horse archers supplied with mercenary knights, with heavy infantry pikemen (skutatoi) and bowmen (toxotai). They would have excellent light infantry, peltastai and psiloi, armed with Roman composite bows and staff slings. Most of all, they would not fight fair, but rely on surprises, ambushes and night attacks.
军事学说：拜占庭帝国军队时刻准备迎战任何类型的敌人，应对任何天气状况，在这方面他们将展现绝对的优势。然而，他们的劣势在于装备和武器。拜占庭军队的核心是一支以重装甲骑兵 (cataphracts) 和骑射兵为主的骑兵部队，并辅以雇佣的西方骑士。此外，他们还拥有重装步兵方阵，由长矛兵 (skutatoi) 和弓箭手 (toxotai) 组成。轻装步兵方面，他们拥有技艺精湛的标枪兵 (peltastai) 和轻装掷弹兵 (psiloi)，装备有罗马复合弓和投石索。最重要的是，拜占庭军队不会拘泥于“公平作战”，他们擅长利用突袭、伏击和夜袭等战术克敌制胜。


The Costa Ricans would be hardy campesinos armed with rifles and shotguns, with an occasional pistol or revolver. Some might even have an assault rifle. They would be fighting as light infantry, being superior in firepower. The big question is: would they be able to stand the numerical superiority of the Byzantines, their archery (in close terrain the distances are short!) and their willingness on hand-to-hand fight? Yes. Because the Costa Ricans have cars. If every car in the country (we are no island!) was mobilized to mow down Byzantines the Byzantines wouldn't have a chance, and a pick-up can be converted into a technical. The Byzantines have no defense for Costa Ricans in cars. Unfortunately cars are bound to roads, and roads and bridges can be ambushed, and by 1017 the Byzantines knew both crossbows and ballistas, and cars can be burned with Greek Fire…
哥斯达黎加人将是装备步枪和霰弹枪的强壮农民，偶尔还会有手枪或左轮手枪。有些人甚至可能有突击步枪。他们将作为轻步兵作战，在火力方面占据优势。
但问题来了：哥斯达黎加能否抵挡住拜占庭帝国的人数优势、弓箭技术（在近距离地形下，交战距离很短！）以及他们白刃战的凶悍？可以。因为哥斯达黎加人有汽车。如果全国的汽车（我们又不是岛国！）都动员起来碾压拜占庭军队，那么拜占庭人将毫无胜算，一辆皮卡车也能改装成简易武装运兵车。对于乘坐汽车的哥斯达黎加人，拜占庭军队将毫无还手之力。
不幸的是，汽车只能在道路上行驶，道路和桥梁容易遭到伏击。而且到了1017 年，拜占庭军队已经了解弩和弩炮，汽车也可能会被火焚烧殆尽……

My bet goes here to the Byzantines. They would be inferior in communication technology and weapons and gear, but superior in almost all other respects.
我的赌注下在拜占庭人身上。他们在通讯技术、武器和装备方面可能不如人，但在几乎所有其他方面都占优势。

Henry Wang
The strongest nation from 1,000 years ago.
1000年前最强大的国家。

The weakest nation today would be Liechtenstein(an actual legitimate nation, not a micro-state).
当今最弱小的国家将是列支敦士登（一个真正的合法国家，而不是一个微型国家）。

It has a population of 37k.
它的人口为37k。

In the 11th Century it would have been the ERE (Byzantine).
在11世纪，它将是东罗马帝国（拜占庭）。

It is estimated to be around 5 million.
据估计约有500万人。

So, in order for the manpower calculation to work, lets say both nations have 50% of their population fit for duty.
因此，为了使人力计算有效，我们假设两个国家都有50%的人口适合服役。

That means 18,500 vs. 2,500,000.
这意味着18,500对2,500,000。

Each Citizen/Soldier of Liechtenstein would have to kill 135.13 Eastern Roman Citizen/Soldiers.
列支敦士登的每位公民/士兵需要杀死 135.13 名东罗马帝国公民/士兵。

Since its pretty much impossibly for such an event to happen even with modern technology (1 gun aint going to beat a volley of 135 arrows), the Nation from 1,000 years ago would win.
鉴于即使使用现代技术，这种事件发生的可能性也微乎其微（一支步枪无法抵挡 135 支箭的齐射），所以 1000 年前的军队将会取得胜利。