Aya Shawn
China claims to complete manned moon landing by 2030. Do you believe it?

中国声称2030年完成载人登月，你信吗？
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


We should be skeptical of any country making such a claim, except China.

除了中国之外，我们应对任何国家提出这样的说法表示怀疑。

Let us turn the time back to 20 years ago and take a look at the plans of major countries to explore the moon 20 years ago.

让我们把时间拨回到20年前，看看20年前各大国的探月计划。
1. China 1. 中国

China announced in June 2004 that it would officially begin its moon landing program. The plan will be divided into three steps to complete the three missions of orbiting the moon, landing on the moon, and sampling and returning. The final time is: before 2020

2004年6月，中国宣布正式启动登月计划。该计划将分三步完成绕月、登陆月球、采样返回三项任务。最终时间为：2020年之前

The actual situation:

实际情况：

In 2007, the first probe "Chang'e 1" was launched to complete lunar exploration and lunar terrain mapping.

2007年，发射第一颗探测器“嫦娥一号”，完成月球探测和月球地形测绘。

The second detector "Chang'e 2" was launched in 2010

2010年发射第二颗探测器“嫦娥二号”
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


After completing the exploration around the moon, it took pictures for the third launch, and finally flew into deep space to detect asteroids.

完成绕月探测后，它为第三次发射拍照，最后飞入深空探测小行星。

In December 2013, the third detector "Chang'e 3" was launched. The soft landing was successful and the lunar rover was successfully released.

2013年12月，第三颗探测器“嫦娥三号”发射升空。软着陆成功，月球车成功释放。

In December 2018, the fourth detector "Chang'e 4" was launched. The soft landing was successful and the lunar rover was successfully released.

2018年12月，第四颗探测器“嫦娥四号”发射。软着陆成功，月球车成功释放。

The fifth detector "Chang'e 5" will be launched in November 2020. The soft landing was successful, samples were collected, re-launched and returned to Earth.

第五艘探测器“嫦娥五号”将于2020年11月发射，软着陆成功，样本采集完毕，重新发射返回地球。

At this point, China's moon landing plan has been fully completed, completely consistent with the plan announced 20 years ago.

至此，中国的登月计划已经全面完成，与20年前公布的计划完全一致。

2. India

2. 印度

In 2001, India announced its lunar exploration plan. The head of ISRO announced that the plan is divided into three steps. The first probe "Chandrayaan-1" will be launched in 2008, astronauts will be sent to space in 2015, and a manned moon landing will be completed in 2020.

2001年，印度宣布了探月计划。 ISRO负责人宣布，该计划分为三个步骤。首个探测器“月船一号”将于2008年发射，2015年将宇航员送上太空，2020年完成载人登月。

The actual situation:

实际情况：

In October 2008, the first probe "Chandrayaan-1" was launched to orbit and impact the moon.

2008年10月，第一颗探测器“月船一号”发射升空并撞击月球。

In July 2019, the second probe "Chandrayaan-2" was launched and the landing failed.

2019年7月，第二号探测器“月船2号”发射，着陆失败。

In July 2023, the third probe "Chandrayaan-3" was launched, the soft landing was successful, and the lunar rover was released

2023年7月，第三号探测器“月船三号”发射，软着陆成功，月球车释放
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


In October 2023, Modi announced that India would build an Indian space station in 2035 and achieve a manned moon landing in 2040.

2023年10月，莫迪宣布印度将在2035年建成印度空间站，并在2040年实现载人登月。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


3. Japan

3. 日本

In 2007, the head of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries' Space Technology Department announced that JAXA's large rocket design had begun. Japan will complete a manned moon landing between 2020 and 2025, and plans to send two astronauts to the moon.

2007年，三菱重工宇宙技术部负责人宣布JAXA的大型火箭设计已经开始。日本将在2020年至2025年间完成载人登月，并计划将两名宇航员送上月球。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


In 2018, JAXA announced that it would join the Artemis program and plan to launch an unmanned probe to explore the moon in 2022.

2018年，JAXA宣布加入阿尔忒弥斯计划，并计划于2022年发射无人探测器探索月球。

The actual situation

实际情况

In 2024, JAXA's unmanned probe "SLIM" was launched and landed on the lunar surface in the early morning of January 20. The probe capsized.

2024年，JAXA的无人探测器“SLIM”发射升空，并于1月20日凌晨降落在月球表面，探测器倾覆。

4. Europe

4.欧洲

In 1994, the "Moon 2000" plan was announced, which planned to launch a lunar orbiting satellite (MORO) and a lunar landing probe (LEDA) in the early 21st century.

1994年，“月球2000”计划公布，计划在21世纪初发射绕月卫星（MORO）和登月探测器（LEDA）。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


The "Dawn Project" was proposed in February 2004, and ESA announced that it would complete a manned moon landing in 2020 and build a "lunar base" in 2035.

2004年2月提出“黎明计划”，欧空局宣布2020年完成载人登月，2035年建设“月球基地”。

The actual situation:

实际情况：

On September 27, 2003, the "Wisdom 1" probe was launched to carry out the mission of orbiting the moon.

2003年9月27日，“智慧一号”探测器发射升空，执行绕月飞行任务。

No lunar landing missions have been carried out yet

尚未执行登月任务

5. United States

5.美国
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


On January 14, 2004, President Bush made a speech, planning to return to the moon and establish a base from 2015 to 2020. In September 2005, NASA announced the Constellation Project. It is planned to take 13 years and cost US$104 billion to land on the moon before 2018 or 2020 at the latest.

2004年1月14日，布什总统发表讲话，计划2015年至2020年重返月球并建立基地。2005年9月，NASA宣布星座计划。计划最晚在2018年或2020年之前登陆月球，需要13年时间、耗资1040亿美元。

The actual situation:

实际情况：

In 2020, the plan was cancelled.

2020年，该计划被取消。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


In October 2017, NASA announced the Artemis program, which aims to send American astronauts to the moon by 2024 and establish a permanent base on the lunar surface by 2028.

2017年10月，美国宇航局宣布了阿尔忒弥斯计划，目标是到2024年将美国宇航员送上月球，并到2028年在月球表面建立永久基地。

The actual situation:

实际情况：

On November 9, 2021, NASA announced that it would postpone the manned moon landing plan to 2025.

2021年11月9日，NASA宣布将载人登月计划推迟至2025年。

On November 16, 2022, Artemis 1 was successfully launched and the Orion spacecraft successfully entered the lunar orbit.

2022年11月16日，阿耳忒弥斯一号成功发射，猎户座飞船成功进入月球轨道。

On January 8, 2024, the Peregrine probe was launched and the moon landing failed.

2024年1月8日，游隼号探测器发射，登月失败。

On February 22, 2024, the Odysseus probe landed on the moon and the probe rolled over.

2024年2月22日，奥德修斯探测器成功着陆月球并进行了滚动操作。

6. Russia

6、俄罗斯
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


In 2014, Russia announced the "Earth-Moon" plan. It is planned to launch Lunar 25 in 2014, and successively launch Lunar 26, 27, 28, and 29, a total of five probes, to be completed by 2025. The last two detectors will collect samples and return them. Send astronauts to the moon in 2028-2030.

2014年，俄罗斯公布了“地月”计划。计划于2014年发射月球25号，并陆续发射月球26号、月球27号、月球28号、月球29号，共5个探测器，预计2025年完成。最后两个探测器将采集样本并返回。 2028-2030 年将宇航员送上月球。

The actual situation:

实际情况：

On August 10, 2023, Lunar 25 was launched and the moon landing failed.

2023年8月10日，月球25号发射，登月失败。

Space exploration and landing on the moon are very difficult, and manned landing on the moon is even more complicated and dangerous.

太空探索和登月都非常困难，载人登月则更加复杂和危险。

In this answer, I don’t want to discuss which country has the most powerful technology and more advanced solutions. In this field, the progress of any country is the progress of mankind.

在这个答案中，我不想讨论哪个国家拥有最强大的技术和更先进的解决方案。在这个领域，任何国家的进步就是人类的进步。

I just want to tell the questioner that any country can propose its own moon landing plan, whether it is an unmanned probe or a manned moon landing, this is something to be happy about.

我只是想告诉提问者，任何国家都可以提出自己的登月计划，无论是无人探测器还是载人登月，这是值得高兴的事情。

But among the plans proposed by all countries, I only believe that the Chinese plan can be completed on time. As for other countries' plans, you must have plenty of patience, as they may be delayed or changed at any time.

但在各国提出的计划中，我只相信中国的计划能够按时完成。至于其他国家的计划，你要有足够的耐心，因为它们随时可能被推迟或改变。

Now, the Chinese say they will complete a manned moon landing in 2030, which means we will see humans on the moon again in 6 years.

现在，中国人表示他们将在2030年完成载人登月，这意味着我们将在6年后再次看到人类登上月球。