你认为美国可能失去超级大国地位的最大原因是什么?（二）

Joseph Wang
History doesn't stop.
In 1991, the United States was in the unique position of being the world's only superpower. Simple arithmetic would show that this wasn't going to last forever.
The mistake that the United States made was that instead of using its unique position to set up a multilateral global governance frxwork, it tried to create an American dominated world with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. This exhausted the United States to the point that people are asking what the point of being a superpower is.
The key demographics change is with millennials and people born after the cold war and after 9/11. People like me who lived through the cold war consider US dominance a natural thing, but the issue is that the generation born after 2001 are going to wonder what good the US being a superpower is to them.

历史不会停止。
1991年，美国处于独一无二的地位，成为世界上唯一的超级大国。简单的算术表明，这种情况不会永远持续下去。
美国犯的错误是，它没有利用自己的独特地位建立多边全球治理框架，而是试图通过伊拉克和阿富汗战争创造一个美国主导的世界。这让美国疲惫不堪，以至于人们都在问，成为超级大国有什么意义。
关键的人口结构变化是千禧一代以及冷战后和9/11事件后出生的人。像我这样经历过冷战的人认为美国处于主导地位是很自然的，但问题是，2001年后出生的一代人会想知道美国成为超级大国对他们有什么好处。

Tom Kratman
What would it take to bring America down as the predominant superpower?
A serious civil war might do it. Then again, like last time, it might only give us the wherewithal to become an even greater power.
Addendum: “How?” I hear someone ask. Well, imagine a United States in which the 20% of the country that is most left-leaning is either dead or being worked to death in logging and mining camps in Alaska. How would you like to deal with _that_ United States, a United States without perhaps even a single progressive, internationalist, or humanitarian impulse?

怎样才能搞垮美国这个占主导地位的超级大国?
一场严重的内战可能会导致这种情况。然而，就像上次一样，它可能只会给我们提供成为更强大力量的必要资金。
附录：“怎么做？”我听到有人问。想象一下这样一个美国:这个国家最左倾的20%的人要么死了，要么在阿拉斯加的伐木和采矿营地工作致死。你想如何应对美国——一个可能没有任何进步主义、国际主义或人道主义方面的推动力的美国？

Nathan James
What would it take to bring America down as the predominant superpower?
Just wait. It will happen on its own accord.
You see, America’s position as the dominant superpower stems entirely from its US Dollar hegemony as the global reserve currency.
This US Dollar hegemony has paid for America’s lavish lifestyle. It has paid for America’s massive military expansion.
This US Dollar hegemony has given America a geopolitical bludgeon with which to force other nations to bend to America’s will.
This US Dollar hegemony has allowed America to print money without end. That’s why it has a crushing $28 trillion national debt which is expected to balloon to an eye-watering $89 trillion by 2029.
So here’s the $28 trillion question: What happens when (not if) the US Dollar hegemony collapses?

怎样才能搞垮美国这个占主导地位的超级大国?
等等，它将自动发生的。
你看，美国作为超级大国的主导地位完全源于其作为全球储备货币的美元霸权。
这种美元霸权为美国奢侈的生活方式付出了代价。它为美国的大规模军事扩张而买单
美元霸权给了美国一根地缘政治大棒，可以迫使其他国家屈服于美国的意志。
这种美元霸权让美国可以无休止地印钞。这就是为什么它有28万亿美元的巨额国债，预计到2029年将膨胀到令人垂涎的89万亿美元。
所以这是一个价值28万亿美元的问题:当美元霸权崩溃时(不是如果)会发生什么?

Answer: America’s financial house of cards will come tumbling down.
America will be forced to pare back its military, because no military can stand without proper funding.
It may have to reduce the number of active military personnel.
It may have to decommission some of its supercarriers.
It may have to close down many of its foreign military bases.
It may have to eliminate many of its nuclear weapons.
It will have to cut back on military spending big time.
When will the US Dollar hegemony collapse? Experts say within 10–15 years.
So…just wait.

答：美国的金融纸牌屋将会倒塌。
美国将被迫削减其军队，因为没有适当的资金支持，任何军队都无法屹立不倒。
它可能不得不减少现役军事人员的数量。
它可能不得不让一些超级航母退役。
它可能不得不关闭众多外国军事基地。
它可能不得不销毁许多核武器。
它将不得不大幅削减军费开支。
美元霸权何时瓦解？专家表示，在10-15年内。
所以…等等就好。
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Donald Canton
What would it take to bring America down as the predominant superpower?
According to some foreigners, the United States has already brought itself down since 1971, when the U.S. president at the time directly declared that the U.S. dollar was decoupled from gold without discussing it with allies. Since then, the U.S. dollar, not bound by the gold standard, can be spammed out to solve the immediate problems. Everything has looked good for years. However, the serious consequences caused by the unlimited QE has become gradually obvious.
The financial industry began to dominate in the USA. Wall Street became more and more powerful, and began to manipulate various fields, ideas and politics. The industry started to hollow out ever since. The real economy in the USA is becoming more and more difficult. Social contradictions are intensifying because the degree of society division between the rich and the poor has been gotten worse and worse. The American middle class has been deprived of all kinds of welfare in the name of market-oriented reforms. Then, in 2008, the subprime mortgage financial crisis, the trade wars with China since 2017 and in 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic all made the USA even worse and worse unbelievably and undeniably.
Internationally, the American politicians have bullied and treated Russia as a defeated country, China, its allies, and countries in Latin America as too inferior for the USA to cooperate.

怎样才能使美国成为占主导地位的超级大国?
据一些外国人说，自1971年以来，美国就已经衰落了，当时的美国总统在没有与盟友讨论的情况下直接宣布美元与黄金脱钩。从那时起，不受金本位制约束的美元就可以大量发行，以解决眼前的问题。多年来，一切看起来都很好。然而，无限量量化宽松造成的严重后果已经逐渐显现。
金融业开始在美国占据主导地位。华尔街变得越来越强大，开始操纵各个领域、思想和政治。从那以后， 工业开始枯竭。美国的实体经济正变得越来越困难。由于社会贫富分化的程度越来越严重，社会矛盾日益激化。美国中产阶级以市场化改革的名义被剥夺了各种福利。然后，2008年，爆发次贷金融危机，2017年以来与中国的贸易战，以及2020年新冠肺炎大流行，都让美国变得越来越糟糕，尽管令人难以置信，也不可否认。
在国际上，美国政客欺凌并将俄罗斯视为战败国，将中国及其盟友和拉丁美洲国家视为美国无法与之合作次等国家。

Tim Chisell
Will the United States remain a world power?
I’m English.
I was raised by my grandparents, and my great-grandfather used to babysit me as a child, and I’d sit on his knee and listen to his stories.
Why is this relevant.
Well, I’m hardly as old as Methuselah (I’m 50), yet I have person experience of an English man who could still remember the 19th century.
When he was born (1890), Britain was the world’s undisputed superpower. Relative to the times, it was more unquestionably the world’s dominant power then than the USA is today.
Britain, back then, controlled the largest Empire planet Earth has ever seen. More than 1/3rd of the earth’s land service. Australia, New Zealand, Canada, India, Jamaica and other parts of the Caribbean, huge chunks of West and Southern Africa, Burma, parts of China, much of the Middle East…. It’s navy (and, in the days before flight, the navy was the key to reaching and controlling other parts of the globe) was considerably more powerful than that of any other nation . It’s armies were extensive, well equipped and well trained. Britain led the world in industrial production and technological innovation. The world’s financial markets were controlled from London. British academics and scientists were seen as the foremost in just about every possible discipline.

美国会继续成为世界大国吗？
我是英国人。
我由祖父母抚养长大，小时候，我的曾祖父常常照看我，我会坐在他的膝盖上听他讲故事。
为什么扯这个呢。
嗯，我还没有长寿者（我50岁）那么老，但我有与还记得19世纪的事情的英国人接触的经历。
当他出生时（1890年），英国是世界上无可争议的超级大国。相对于那个时代，它无疑比今天的美国更具有世界主导地位。
当时，英国控制着地球上有史以来最大的帝国。澳大利亚、新西兰、加拿大、印度、牙买加和加勒比海的其他地区、非洲西部和南部的大片地区、缅甸、中国的部分地区、中东的大部分地区等地球上超过三分之一的土地为之服务。它的海军(而且，在有飞机之前的日子里，海军是到达和控制地球其他地区的关键力量)比任何其他国家都要强大得多。它的军队规模庞大，装备精良，训练有素。英国在工业生产和技术创新方面领先世界。世界金融市场由伦敦控制。在几乎所有可能的学科中，英国的学者和科学家都被视为最顶尖的。

The idea that this was likely to change any time soon would have been laughable. It was referred to, by allies and enemies alike, as the ‘Empire on which the sun never sets’ - both because it was expected to last indefinitely, and because it was SO vast and covered so many different time-zones that, somewhere in the British Empire, it was always daylight, whatever the time.
This was in 1890 when my great-grandfather was born.
When he died, in 1973, Britain had lost the entire Empire, bar a few minor outposts (Gibraltar, Hong Kong etc). It’s economy was in turmoil, with the IMF dictating to the UK government in exchange for loan and bail-out agreements. It had dropped from being the world’s largest economy to not even scraping into the top 5. It relied on the US, who by then had a massively stronger army, navy, and air force, for defence against the USSR, which also had a massively stronger army, navy, and air force.
In the space of ONE human life-time, Britain went from a position significantly more dominant than the USA enjoys today, to being a bit-part player between other, far, far stronger world powers.
So will the USA remain a world power? Sure, for a while. But nothing lasts forever.
And however strong, dominant and unassailable a world power appears, history teaches us that it’s position can entirely, radically change in the space of just one single life-span.
It’s certainly a possibility that you, or at the very least your grandchildren, will look back at this question in as little as 50–100 years and laugh at the weird twist of history that the USA was once considered a ‘world power’. It’s happened before - it will happen again.
The only question is when. Whether it takes a single generation, or another 10.
Nothing lasts forever.

认为这种情况很快就会改变的想法是可笑的。无论是盟友还是敌人，都把它称为“日不落帝国”——一方面是因为它被期望无限期地持续下去，另一方面是因为它的势力范围是如此之大，覆盖了那么多不同的时区，以至于在大英帝国势力范围内，无论何时，总有一个地方是白天。
在1890年，我的曾祖父出生了。
当他于1973年去世时，英国已经失去了整个帝国，除了几个小前哨基地（直布罗陀、香港等）。当时英国经济一片混乱，国际货币基金组织对英国政府发号施令，以换取贷款和纾困协议。它已经从世界上最大的经济体下降到甚至没有挤进前五名。它依靠美国来防御苏联，当时美国拥有强大的陆军、海军和空军，而苏联也拥有强大的陆军、海军和空军。
在一个人的一生中，英国从一个比今天的美国更具统治力的地位，变成了其他强大得多的世界大国之间的一个小角色。
那么，美国会继续成为世界强国吗？当然会持续一段时间。但没有什么是永恒的。
历史告诉我们，无论一个世界大国看起来多么强大、多么占主导地位、多么无懈可击，它的地位都可能在人的一生中发生彻底的、根本的变化。
你，或者至少是你的孙子，很有可能在50-100年后回顾这个问题，嘲笑美国曾经被认为是“世界强国”的奇怪历史。以前发生过这种事，以后还会发生。
唯一的问题是什么时候，不管这需要一代人的时间，还是10代人的时间。
没有什么是永恒的。

Ernest W. Adams
How long can US last as the most powerful country in the world?
That really depends on whether it's smart or stupid. This isn't a Roman Empire situation in which barbarian hordes might invade from beyond the borders. There are no barbarian hordes left.
If the US persists in its current policy of allowing the wealthy to accumulate obscene amounts of money while a significant percentage of the population depends on the government to feed it, and the wealthy are allowed to write tax policy so that they don't have to pay their share, then the US will be a sad shell of its former self by 2050 or so. The time will come when there's no middle class left, only the extremely rich who won't pay taxes, and the extremely poor who can't. This would squander the brainpower of the USA. Already American childhood education is lagging behind that of much of the developed world. This is called "being stupid."
If, on the other hand, the United States were to improve its social safety net, improve upward mobility, rein in its absurd defense spending, invest in education (this always pays off; educated taxpayers need fewer social services, get better jobs, and pay more taxes), encourage the movement of money in the economy, and close the appalling tax loopholes that allow Google to pretend to be an Irish company... then there's really no reason why the US can't retain its global dominance indefinitely. This is called "being smart."
We have the brains; we have the resources; we have the alliances. The question is whether we will allow them to rot due to inattention and imbecilic policies like "trickle-down."

美国作为世界上最强大的国家能持续多久？
这真的取决于它是聪明还是愚蠢。这不是罗马帝国当时的情况了，毕竟野蛮部落可能会从境外入侵，但是现在已经没有野蛮部落了。
如果美国坚持目前的政策，允许富人积累大得惊人的金钱，而相当一部分人口依赖政府来养活他们，并且允许富人制定税收政策，这样他们就不必支付自己那份税额，那么到2050年左右，美国将是一个可悲的空壳。总有一天，不再有中产阶级，只有不纳税的极端富人和不纳税的极度穷人。这将令美国失去智囊团。美国的儿童教育已经落后于许多发达国家了，这就是所谓的“愚蠢”
另一方面，美国应该改善其社会保障网络，提高社会阶层的向上流动性，控制其荒谬的国防开支，投资于教育（这总是有回报的；受过教育的纳税人需要更少的社会服务，获得更好的工作，缴纳更多的税），鼓励资金在经济中流动，堵住让谷歌得以伪装成一家爱尔兰公司的骇人听闻的税收漏洞。那么，美国就没有理由不能无限期地保持其全球主导地位了，这就是所谓的“聪明”。
我们有智囊团；我们有资源；我们有联盟。问题是，我们是否会允许它们因疏忽大意和“涓滴效应”等愚蠢政策而腐烂

Dan Bradbury
Is the US still the world’s superpower?
Look. Anybody who’s read what I write knows that I hate Trump and that in general, I hate American foreign policy. I think we suck in how we do a lot of things.
None of those are part of the question though. The word “Superpower” in English has a well-understood meaning amongst political scientists and the like. You’re free to freak out or bang your head against a wall if that bothers you. Because, well, if you can’t win on facts, just make shit up to show how evil the US is.
A superpower is a term to describe a nation with these characteristics:
A wide collection of allies.
A nation that can wipe out most life on Earth.
A nation that can project its military forces anywhere on the planet.
A nation that has a sui generis cultural and philosophical offering that it tries to sell the world.
A nation with a massive economic and scientific footprint.
This descxtion has remained mostly unchanged for about fifty years. The US still fits that descxtion. China and Russia do not. China may soon fit that descxtion (but I doubt it). What I believe is that the era of the superpower is winding down. In the next century, we’ll probably end up with an overlapping series of alliances, the UN and corporate-cross-interests that apply pressure to nations to fall into line. At that point in time, it’ll be super-alliances that run the world.
The US is the only and likely the last superpower.

美国仍然是世界超级大国吗？
看读过我文章的人都知道，我讨厌特朗普，总的来说，我讨厌美国的外交政策。我认为我们做很多事情的方式都很糟糕。
这些都不是问题的一部分。在英语中，“超级大国”一词在政治科学家和类似的人当中有着很好的理解。如果你觉得不舒服，你可以发疯或者用头撞墙。因为，好吧，如果你不能在事实上获胜，那就瞎编一些东西来展示美国有多邪恶。
超级大国是指一个具有以下特征的国家：
有着广泛的盟友。
一个可以消灭地球上大多数生命的国家。
一个可以在地球上任何地方部署军事力量的国家。
一个拥有独特文化和哲学的国家，并试图向世界兜售。
一个拥有非常有影响的经济和科学足迹的国家。
这一描述在大约五十年的时间里基本保持不变。美国仍然符合这一描述。中国和俄罗斯是不符合的。中国可能很快就会符合这种描述（但我对此表示怀疑）。我相信，超级大国的时代正在逐渐结束。在下个世纪，我们可能会以一系列重叠的联盟、联合国和企业交叉利益而告终，这些联盟向各国施加压力，要求它们遵守规则。届时，将由超级联盟来管理世界。
美国是唯一的，也可能是最后一个超级大国。

H.L. Chastain
Is America really world's superpower?
Yes
World’s largest economy
Center of tech innovation
Leader of NATO
1 of the 5 members on the security council
Most powerful military
Logistics network to sustain hundreds of thousands of troops in any part of the world.
Capability to invade a nation halfway across the world effectively
Some of the best military minds in the world
Massive budgets
World most expansive Navy
Home to some of the top cultural icons around the world
Hollywood, tech giants, actors,, etc.
The US is certainly the world’s superpower. They practically invented the definition of ‘superpower’. This doesn’t mean the US is full of flowers and roses, or that its a utopia. The US has a whole list of issues to deal with, but in regards to whether they are a superpower: they are.
The US is a superpower, no matter what others claim.

美国真的是世界超级大国吗？
是的
世界最大经济体
技术创新中心
北约领导人
安全理事会5个常任理事国成员之一
最强大的军队
后勤网络，以维持在世界任何地方的数十万军队。
有效入侵半个世界国家的能力
世界上一些最优秀的军事头脑
巨额预算
世界上最庞大的海军
世界上一些顶级文化标志的所在地
好莱坞、科技巨头、演员等等。
美国无疑是世界超级大国。他们实际上发明了“超级大国”的定义。这并不意味着美国到处都是鲜花和玫瑰，也不意味着美国是一个乌托邦。美国有一大堆问题要处理，但关于他们是否是超级大国这个问题:他们是超级大国。
不管别人怎么说，美国都是超级大国。

Pavel Fekula
Is the USA no longer leading the world?
The US’s unipolar moment is over. We are entering a multipolar world. The US managed to lead the world following the collapse of the Soviet unx by virtue of its military dominance. When the Soviet unx collapsed in 1991, the US was totally unrivaled in military capabilities. It has by far the best military equipment on the planet. However, much of this equipment acquired in the 1980s and due for replacement in the 2000s. Instead of replacing that equipment, the US opted to fight the War on Terror, allowing China and Russia to catch up and surpass the US. Now China and Russia are increasingly standing up to the US on international issues.

美国不再领导世界了吗？
美国的单极时代结束了。我们正在进入一个多极世界。苏联解体后，美国凭借其军事主导地位成功领导了世界。1991年苏联解体时，美国在军事能力上完全无人能及。它拥有迄今为止世界上最好的军事装备。然而，这些设备大多是在20世纪80年代购买的，并将在21世纪初更换。美国没有更换这些装备，而是选择了反恐战争，让中国和俄罗斯赶上并超越美国。现在，中国和俄罗斯在国际问题上越来越与美国对抗。

Matthew Bates
Is the USA losing its leading position in the world?
Not so much “losing” as “willfully falling back and hoping someone else will take the lead.”
Like User-11726029917195839384 said, it’s a combination of others catching up, and US not wanting to lead anymore.
Well, a lot of Americans don’t care about the “leading position” anymore, except when it comes to the military. We want to have the biggest, best, and most advanced military. And we want it to defend us, not act as the police for the world.
When we hear on the news that a very expensive American jet with an American pilot dropped a very expensive bomb on someone to help on side in someone else’s civil war, many Americans think: “Wait a minute. Why are we fighting their war? Why are we paying for this? Why can’t they handle their own problems?”
The US has been the world’s lone superpower for a generation now. How’s that working out for the average American? After 26 years of US global hegemony, many Americans are still living paycheck-to-paycheck, struggling with addictions or broken families, and generally not doing as well as the generations of Americans before them.
When someone points out that the US leads the world economically, politically, and culturally, the average American might look at their personal situation and say: “Let someone else lead the world awhile. I’ve got my own problems I’d like my country to focus on.”
I don’t speak for all Americans, of course. But I know I speak for many of them when I say that the next time there’s a crisis somewhere in the world, I’d like to see ships full of Chinese or Russian or Indian aid leading the relief effort.

美国正在输掉其在世界上的主导地位吗？
与其说是“输掉”，不如说是“故意后退，希望别人能领先。”
正如用户-11726029917195839384所说，这是其他国家迎头赶上，而美国不想再主导的结果。
好吧，很多美国人不再关心“主导地位”了，除了军事方面。我们希望拥有规模最大、最好、最先进的军队。我们希望它保护我们，而不是充当世界警察。
当我们在新闻上听到一架非常昂贵的美国喷气式飞机和一名美国飞行员向某人投下了一枚非常昂贵的炸弹，以在其他人的内战中提供帮助时，许多美国人会想：“等一下。我们为什么要参与他们的战争？我们为什么要为此付出代价？为什么他们不能处理自己的问题？”
一代人以来，美国一直是世界上唯一的超级大国。这对普通美国人来说是怎样的呢?在美国称霸全球26年之后，许多美国人仍在靠薪水度日，与毒瘾或破碎的家庭作斗争，总体上不如前几代美国人过得好。
当有人指出美国在经济、政治和文化上主导着世界时，普通美国人可能会审视自己的个人情况，说：“让别人主导世界一段时间吧。我有我自己的问题，我希望我的国家能关注到我。”
当然，我不能代表所有美国人。但我知道，当我说下次世界上某个地方发生危机时，我希望看到满载中国、俄罗斯或印度援助物资的船只主导救援工作时，我说的话能代表了他们中的许多人。

David Kleemann
Is the United States losing its superpower status?
Actually you might be interested to know that the US isn’t a Superpower, we did in fact lose that status… We are now technically a Hyperpower.
Superpower: A very powerful and influential nation.
Hyperpower: A state that dominates all other states in every domain (i.e. military, culture, economy) and is considered to be a step higher than a superpower.
For instance, one could call China and Russia superpowers. But they lack the capability to fight a full scale conventional war anywhere in the world except right on their doorstep. Even Hollywood and video games overestimate the ability of those two nations to project power.
Meanwhile the US Military can not only fight a full scale conventional war on one side of the planet with a full capable logistics system and manufacturing apparatus, but we can fight two major conventional wars on different sides of the planet far from home with the above mentioned logistics and manufacturing.
Never mind culture, the rest of the world is obsessed with ours. They either love it or hate it
Or the economy, we are giants among other economies.
Yes, we already lost our superpower status.

美国正在失去超级大国的地位吗？
事实上，你可能有兴趣知道，美国不是超级大国，事实上，我们确实失去了这种地位，但严格来说，我们现在还是超级强国。
超级大国：一个非常强大和有影响力的国家。
超级强国：一个在各个领域(即军事、文化、经济)主导所有其他国家的国家，被认为比超级大国高一级。
例如，人们可以称中国和俄罗斯为超级大国。但他们缺乏在世界任何地方进行全面常规战争的能力，除非就在他们家门口。即使是好莱坞和电子游戏也高估了这两个国家投射力量的能力。
与此同时，美国军队不仅可以在地球的一边用完整的后勤系统和制造设备打一场全面的常规战争，而且我们可以在地球的另一边用上述后勤和制造设备打两场主要的常规战争。
别提文化了，世界上的其他人都痴迷于我们的文化。他们要么喜欢它，要么讨厌它。
或者说经济，我们是其他经济体中眼中的巨人。
是的，我们已经失去了超级大国的地位。